Robert probably should have first shot at this NFH, but do you care to bet on Shea's post ASB OBP?

And I'm curious, did you check out his first half numbers the past two years before making that bet?

Hmmmm. I suppose the Halladay injury puts some sauce into the 85-wins scenario. Aaron, any suggestions?

PLAYER	               TEAM   AB   R  H  2B 3B  HR  RBI SB CS  BB  BAV  OBP  SLG  OPS
Shea Hillenbrand	Tor  328  56  99 20  1   9   42  2  0  18 .302 .364 .451 .816

This is what I said on January 14 2005:

Hillenbrand doesn't seem like a great acquisition because if you take him out of the desert, this is what he's done over the last two years:

569 AB, 158 Hits, 35 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 72 RBI, 59 Runs, 25 BB, 73 Ks. That's a .278 hitter with a .425 slugging percentage.

Will this be an improvement? You bet it will. Because Dave Berg hit just .262 with 36 2b, 11 HRs, 80 RBIs, 81 runs, 41 BB and 108 Ks in his time here (and he needed 689 at bats to get there, too...)

So I was certainly right when I wrote that "he's clearly better than Dave Berg."

John Ford-Griffin or Jason Arnold spend 600 games on the 25 man roster

I'm guessing you meant to say 60 here - I think JFG has a better shot of even making it up due to the recent bombing of Arnold I witnessed first hand down in Durham - but I doubt even if its 60 either with make it

Totally off topic, but i can't find anything in google. Does anyone know anywhere in toronto that there are batting cages?

An interesting note on Hillenbrand. He's on pace to be hit by a pitch about 30 times this year. He's never been hit by a pitch more than 12 times in a year before though he has only two prior seasons with 600+ plate appearances.

Anyway, if he was on a pace for 12 HBP instead of 30 his onbase % would be more like .337 going into the break (99 hits, 18 bb, 6 hbp, 365 plate appearances).

So is it luck or skill? I don't know. Maybe Shea is hanging farther over the plate this year.

R. Billie you assume he would have outs when not HBP. Putting aside the likelihood pitchers who are nailing batters are more likely to give up BB and H, Shea would have had an extra 3.5 hits and .5 a walk in those 10 plate appearances. That makes a .347 OBP or so.

Actually, no, it's 600, as is clearly mentioned in the Time to Trade thread that NFH linked. Ron will pay NFH $50 if either Griffin or Arnold get to 600 games played at, I assume, any point in the future.

600 games played is VERY different from 600 on the 25 man roster (especially for the pitcher). I assume the latter is the actual bet, or this needs to be cleared up right quick.

It's on the roster:

"Ron - Monday, July 04 2005 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#121515)
I would say 600 games (on the 25 man roster) for Ford-Griffin and Arnold.

I don't need anything in return if they don't reach that goal.


Ron - Monday, July 04 2005 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#121516)
Meant to say "or" not "and"."

Seeing as Ron is not asking for anything in return, it seems as if this as an appropriate situation for a charitable donation.

Robert probably should have first shot at this NFH, but do you care to bet on Shea's post ASB OBP?

If Robert wants in on a second half bet, I'm up for it -- I think that he'll have a better shot at winning if the terms are the same.

And I'm curious, did you check out his first half numbers the past two years before making that bet?

Nope! I was just optimistic. Still, this is a career high, right?

Hmmmm. I suppose the Halladay injury puts some sauce into the 85-wins scenario. Aaron, any suggestions?

Yeah, I should get a bigger prize! How generous are you feeling (or how sure are you that you'll win)? I'm still going to stand by 85 wins and predict that Dave Bush will rise to the challenge of filling in for Roy.

And just for fun:

Gerry - Friday, January 14 2005 @ 11:55 AM EST (#3848)
Seeing how Hillenbrand has never posted a .350 OBP my money is on Robert.

dp - Friday, January 14 2005 @ 12:00 PM EST (#3849)
His career OB% is .322. In 2003 it was .314. I think Robert's pretty safe here.

bird droppings - Friday, January 14 2005 @ 12:41 PM EST (#3856)
Aaron... please go to bed! Ted has obviously been keeping you awake for the past half month straight... You obviously need some sleep.
And please don't say that you're actually thinking straight!?!

Rich - Friday, January 14 2005 @ 12:49 PM EST (#3860)
Talk about a sucker bet. If the idea is that Hillenbrand has to do something he's never done before (a .350 OBP) to be useful to the Jays, then you may as well make the wager that he hits 30 home runs or steals 30 bases.

Ken - Friday, January 14 2005 @ 03:45 PM EST (#3880)
For the good of the team I find myself rooting for NFH to win this one. However, I can't help but find myself agreeing with everything Robert has written on this debate over the past few days. I want Hillenbrand to work out well, but I just can't see it happening.

Magpie - Friday, January 14 2005 @ 08:07 PM EST (#3901)
Shea Hillenbrand must post an OBP of .350 of better at the All-Star break in 250 PA or more.
In other news, MEN FROM MARS HAVE LANDED!!. Which will not nearly as surprising.

Obviously those people didn't do the extensive research that NFH did (wink, wink.) Had they done their homework, they would have noticed that Shea Hillenbrand's career PRE-AS break OBP is actually .345 (post: .315.) This must be why the deal was before the AS break and not the end of the season. Great work, Aaron!

Oh Christ. Once again I repeat something that was already said. Real sorry, guys. In other news (heh,) how was the HomeRun derby this year? Did it make you fall asleep after 20 minutes or 40?