It was quite a series, as the Jays faced the three young pitching stars of the A's- Haren, Blanton and Harden. Jason Kendall was acquired this off-season; many, myself included, thought that part of the reason for the acquisition was to provide a steadying influence on the young pitchers. I reminded myself of the positive effect Pudge Rodriguez had on young pitching staffs in Florida and Detroit the past two seasons. I wondered if one could test whether this supposed steadying influence could be observed statistically.
So, I did a study. I looked at the effect of arrival since 1980 on veteran catchers on the young pitchers on their new teams. I used only teams which had at least 2 pitchers, who were either 25 or younger or had less than 30 prior starts as of the arrival of the veteran catcher. Each of the pitchers had to pitch in the previous season. It is for this reason that Javy Lopez was not included in this study, as Daniel Cabrera and Erik Bedard did not pitch in the major leagues prior to Lopez' arrival. The seasons included in the study were: Ivan Rodriguez, 2003 and 2004, Gary Carter 1985 and Carlton Fisk, 1981. It should be noted that 1981 was the strike season; that is the reason for the reduction in innings pitched for each of the White Sox starters that season.
Here are the results of the study:
IP H ER W K HR ERA $W $K $HR $H
Ivan Rodriguez- 2003
Penny-2002 129.33 148 67 50 93 18 4.66 0.387 0.719 0.139 1.144 Beckett-2002 107.66 93 49 44 113 13 4.1 0.409 1.05 0.121 0.864 Total-2002 237 241 116 94 206 31 4.41 0.397 0.869 0.131 1.017
Penny-2003 196.33 195 90 56 138 21 4.13 0.285 0.703 0.108 0.993 Beckett-2003 142 132 48 56 152 9 3.04 0.394 1.07 0.063 0.93 Total-2003 338.33 327 138 112 290 30 3.67 0.331 0.857 0.089 0.967
Ivan Rodriguez-2004
Bonderman-2003 162 193 100 58 108 23 5.56 0.358 0.666 0.142 1.191 Robertson-2003 44.66 55 27 23 33 6 5.44 0.515 0.739 0.135 1.232 Total-2003 206.66 248 127 81 141 29 5.53 0.392 0.682 0.14 1.2
Bonderman-2004 184 168 100 73 168 24 4.89 0.397 0.913 0.13 0.913 Robertson-2004 196.66 210 107 66 155 30 4.9 0.336 0.788 0.153 1.07 Totals-2004 380.66 378 207 139 321 54 4.89 0.365 0.843 0.142 0.993
Gary Carter-1985
Darling-1984 205.66 179 87 104 136 17 3.81 0.506 0.661 0.083 0.87 Gooden-1984 218 161 63 73 276 7 2.6 0.335 1.266 0.032 0.739 Fernandez-1984 90 74 35 34 62 8 3.5 0.378 0.689 0.089 0.822 Totals-1984 513.66 414 185 211 474 32 3.24 0.411 0.923 0.062 0.806
Darling-1985 248 214 80 114 167 21 2.9 0.46 0.673 0.085 0.863 Gooden-1985 276.66 198 47 69 268 13 1.53 0.249 0.969 0.047 0.716 Fernandez-1985 170.33 108 53 80 180 14 2.8 0.47 1.057 0.082 0.634 Totals-1985 695 520 180 263 615 48 2.33 0.378 0.885 0.069 0.748
Carlton Fisk-1981
Dotson-1980 198 185 94 87 109 20 4.27 0.439 0.551 0.101 0.934 Burns-1980 238 213 75 63 133 17 2.84 0.265 0.559 0.071 0.895 Trout-1980 199.66 229 82 49 89 14 3.7 0.245 0.446 0.07 1.147 Totals-1980 635.66 627 251 199 331 51 3.55 0.313 0.521 0.08 0.986
Dotson-1981 141 145 59 49 73 13 3.77 0.348 0.518 0.092 1.03 Burns-1981 156.66 139 46 49 108 14 2.64 0.313 0.689 0.089 0.887 Trout-1981 124.66 122 48 38 54 7 3.47 0.305 0.433 0.056 0.978 Totals-1981 422.33 406 153 136 235 34 3.26 0.322 0.556 0.081 0.961
Totals-year prior
1593 1530 679 577 1152 143 3.84 0.362 0.723 0.09 0.96
Totals-that year
1836.33 1631 678 650 1461 167 3.32 0.354 0.785 0.091 0.888
I had anticipated that there would be some improvement in the ERA, as all of these catchers were fine defensive players. I guessed that there would be small improvements in the walk and home run allowed rate. The results were not exactly what I expected- the ERA improvement of over half a run per game is larger than I would have guessed, and the improvements in strikeout and hit rate surprised me. I stress that the study is only a first look at this question. There are on average improvements for young pitchers, and those would need to be accounted for. If one wanted to, one could do a cohort study with young catchers.
Gregg Zaun will probably have a number of young pitchers on the staff in 2006. We'll see how well he does.
Links of the Day
John Brattain's Blue Jay report card in the Hardball Times
Dan Szymborski on Melky Cabrera
Value-Added Linear Weight research by Tom Ruane, published by retrosheet.org
