Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Blue Jays Report Card for June 2005

Blue Jays Report Card for June 2005

Welcome to yet another month-end report card for the Blue Jays, in which I presume to grade players from A+ to F. All grades are strictly non-scientific.

Hitting
The Jays' bats were conspicuously silent for large parts of the month; you've probably noticed that already. Stats are AVG, OBP and SLG for June, in that order, and are from the ESPN web site.

Russ Adams
.250 .274 .441
People are saying all sorts of nice things about him - perhaps deservedly - but what the numbers are telling me is that Adams is trying to become the second coming of Alex Gonzalez. Like Gonzo I, Gonzo II is starting to show some power, but he's not reaching base very often. A .274 on-base percentage, especially at leadoff, is a giant lead weight attached to the offense.

To be fair, there are some differences between the two; for one thing, Adams doesn't strike out much. If he puts it all together, he could become a perfect #2 hitter. But he has a long way to go to become a useful hitter, and he doesn't have a particularly strong arm at shortstop.
Grade: C-

Frank Catalanotto
.276 .375 .382
His walk rate is up from this time last year, which gives him a quite respectable on-base percentage. A solid, professional hitter. Doesn't strike out much: only eight whiffs this month. Doesn't hit as much as a left fielder should, but I'll take that OBP any day of the week. Only drove in two runs all month.
Grade: B

Gabe Gross
.357 .400 .500
Right now, he's Exhibit A for why it is better to carry 14 position players than 12 pitchers, as he won the second game of the Tampa Bay series with that wondrous throw home. The sample size is way too small to draw any conclusions, but at least he's making a useful contribution. I still don't think he'll hit in the long term, but here's hoping that he proves me wrong.
Grade: B (would be higher if sample size was larger)

Aaron Hill
.333 .412 .456
Let's not get too excited. Even as we speak, dozens of video geeks all around major league baseball are closely examining Hill's at-bats, trying to find the holes in his swing. They'll eventually find them, since virtually everybody not named Pujols has such holes. And, when they do, Hill will have to adjust, and then we'll know exactly how good he is. If this all seems too cautious, recall that Josh Phelps hit .309 in 265 at-bats in 2002. Hill's only at 131.

Right, enough caution. It's time to put on my fan hat. All the available evidence suggests that Hill is making a great leap forward, as some young players do, and is about to become a star. He's patient at the plate, he's whacking the occasional extra base hit, he's playing third base like he was born there, and he struck out only nine times this month. He's been compared to Molitor a lot lately, but right now he looks a bit like the young Molitor and a bit like the young Wade Boggs. And the elevator may still be going up. I still think he should be given a shot at shortstop for a month, but he could play anywhere on the diamond and still be an above-average hitter for the position.
Grade: A+

Shea Hillenbrand
.266 .349 .415
After streaking and then slumping, he's settled into being a generic ballplayer, hitting slightly above replacement level. Doesn't really slug enough for a first baseman or designated hitter, but he's better than the currently available alternatives. A slightly different hitter than he's been in the past: he's drawing more walks and getting fewer hits than when he was with Boston and Arizona.
Grade: B-

Eric Hinske
.132 .264 .211
To be successful, a hitter needs to master two skills. One is pitch recognition, which is the ability to determine that a pitched ball is in the strike zone - or, better still, in the power zone. The second, and most important, skill is the ability to actually get the fat part of the bat on a ball in the hitting zone.

I contend, therefore, that there are two kinds of hitting slumps. A "pitch recognition" slump happens when a hitter starts swinging at bad pitches. This kind of slump is correctable, provided the player has the inborn ability to recognize whether a pitch is in the zone. A "hitting mechanics" slump is more serious: if you can't put the darn bat on the darn ball, you've got a lot of work in the video room and the batting cage ahead of you. Or else it's time to consider a career in the financial services industry.

Hinske's June numbers scream "hitting mechanics" slump. His strikeout totals have zoomed through the roof: he's just flat out missing pitches that he used to be able to hit. Because he's having trouble hitting the ball, he's taking more pitches; his walk total is way up. And his power numbers are down: when he does manage to make contact, he usually isn't hitting it very hard.

Of course, Hinske might be able to turn it around; anything's possible. But even his best numbers aren't are all that good, given the position that he plays. Finding a new first baseman may very well be Job One for J.P. and the Jays' shiny new budget; this can't go on much longer.
Grade: F

Ken Huckaby
.077 .143 .077
Hits so poorly that he has become the butt of Jays chat room jokes. ("Kids! Join us for Strike Out Ken Huckaby Day!") Gibbons now only uses him when absolutely necessary. Guillermo Quiroz must be seething with frustration: a major league job is there for the taking, and he keeps getting injured. The Cash for Gaudin deal isn't looking as good now - even a .150 average would be an improvement on what Huck is bringing to the table.
Grade: F

Orlando Hudson
.217 .286 .349
This looks like a job for Keith Law and whomever he employs as his number crunchers: exactly how valuable is the O-Dog's defense? If you replace him with a better hitter but worse fielder, will the Jays benefit? How much better must the replacement second baseman hit to make the move worthwhile?

One thing to remember about Hudson's offense is that he has been an extremely streaky hitter throughout his time in Toronto. He could very well bounce back at the plate - which is a good thing, as he needs to. You can't win anything with middle infielders with an OBP below .300.

As for his defense: a week or so ago, Aaron Hill made a terrific defensive play at third when he ran back and then dived to grab a line drive in shallow left. Such plays now seem less impressive than they really are because Hudson makes that play about three times a week.
Grade: D (thanks to his defense)

Reed Johnson
.174 .240 .261
Desperately needs a breather; he's a hustle player, and the batteries must be pretty much worn down by now. Is looking almost as overmatched as Hinske, fanning 22 times in June and hitting well below his weight. At this point, the Jays might as well give Gabe Gross a shot, as he can't do much worse than this.
Grade: F

John McDonald
.174 .269 .217
Has completely stopped hitting (admittedly, the sample size is small), so Adams has taken away his playing time. If the Jays keep both Hill and Adams, they don't really need McDonald, unless there's a desperate need for a late-inning defensive replacement, or a desperate need for somebody to go on a food run to the concession stands. I'll have a slice of pizza and a bottle of water, thank you.
Grade: F

Frank Menechino
.227 .393 .500
Gibbons is starting to play his regulars more, which means that Mini-Me doesn't have all that much to do except sit on the bench, look mournful, and hope that the O-Dog comes down with Chronic Fatigue Syndrome or something. Plays well enough when he gets in there, and I'm glad that the team has more depth this year.
Grade: B (downgraded due to limited playing time)

Alex Rios
.272 .322 .457
It was the same as usual for Rios: he's this close to being a useful regular, and every month, he shortens the distance by a maddeningly small amount. When he gains ground in one skill, he usually loses ground in another one; this month, he gained power but lost batting average. At this rate of development, he'll be a useful regular at about the time he is eligible for free agency. Look well at this man, Oriole fans: he may well be the right fielder of your future.
Grade: B-

Vernon Wells
.330 .374 .549
People are asking too much of him. At present, his job requirements are: to hit like Carlos Delgado; field like Devon White; never make a physical or mental error ever; serve as the inspirational team leader. Oh, yes, and get paid far less than the top hitters on most other teams. Isn't this a bit too much to ask?

Perhaps not, since he's almost meeting these unrealistic expectations. Because his slow start has ruined his season stats, and because of his mental lapse when Tejada took second on him, no one realizes that he's back in top form at the plate. This month also provides support for the theory that Vernon is a hot-weather hitter. Toronto just set an all-time record for the warmest June ever, and V-Dub hit like gangbusters. (If global warming continues unchecked, Vernon is likely to make it to Cooperstown, provided no cataclysmic climate changes result.)

As for his temperament and/or hustle: I seem to recall that the last person whose desire to win was unfairly questioned was Shannon Stewart. It may be a coincidence that both Wells and Stewart are African-American. All the available evidence suggests that Wells is a hard-working ballplayer who has successfully adjusted to how the opposition is currently pitching to him. He's not part of the problem; he deserves to be surrounded by other good hitters, and not to be asked to carry the whole load.

While I'm here: when did players start leaving their clubs to be (understandably) present at the birth of their children? When I was growing up, I don't recall players being given permission to do that sort of thing. My guess is that players only started doing this during the free-agent era, but I could be wrong.
Grade: A

Gregg Zaun
.256 .352 .321
The Jays played 27 games this month, and Going Going appeared in 26 of them. That's a punishing workload for any catcher, and a cruel workload for a catcher who is well into his thirties and who recently had his brains scrambled. But when the team is trying to win, and the alternative is Mr. Whiffo (the quality food shortening), the only option is to play Zaun until he drops. The good news: his 11 walks ranked second on the team this month (to Hinske), which gave him quite a respectable on-base percentage for a catcher. The bad news: he's stopped hitting for power, and the Jays, like Ontario, need power from somewhere.
Grade: B

Pitching
On the other hand, the pitching this month was quite good. The Jays have allowed fewer runs than any other team in the AL East. Which is a good thing, as they've needed to. Stats given are IP, H, BB, SO, and ERA for June, and are from the ESPN web site.

Miguel Batista
13.0 10 2 10 3.46
His earned-run average is up this month, but his peripherals are better: his K/IP is up, and his walks are down.

When did he last blow a save? Who expected him to be so quietly competent? Some people overestimate the value of a closer, but those people have forgotten 2003. Losing a game in the ninth inning is like being punched in the gut, and tends to drive fans away.
Grade: A

Gustavo Chacin
33.1 38 12 22 3.51
His K/IP and H/IP ratios suggest a serviceable but not particularly great pitcher. Serviceable is better than incompetent, though. It looks like he's going to hold his spot in the rotation, which could earn him a lot of money.
Grade: B

Vinnie Chulk
11.0 11 5 6 4.91
Off a bit this month, but that's just small sample size: when you only pitch 11 innings, one bad outing can artificially inflate your ERA. May drop behind Speier on the depth chart. The Jays are four deep in useful relief pitchers; many teams would kill for such quality. (See "Yankees, New York.") Low K/IP is a warning sign.
Grade: C

Scott Downs
6.2 12 3 4 12.15
When a pitcher gets relieved in a blowout, it's probably time for him to start checking out housing options in the upstate New York area. The only reason he might stick around is that there isn't anybody better who can take his place, unless they bring Bush back up and move Walker back into long relief. Hey, that might be a good idea!
Grade: F

Jason Frasor
12.0 9 5 6 1.50
Had a great month - but, like Chulk, his numbers are affected by small sample size. He walked five batters in 12 innings, and struck out only six; usually, pitchers who remain effective have better numbers than that. Next month, Frasor is likely to have Chulk's ERA from this month, and vice versa. I'm still not entirely convinced that they're not long-lost twin brothers.
Grade: A-

Chad Gaudin
5.1 17 2 5 20.25
The problem with evaluating the Jays' pitching talent is that they all look better in Syracuse. Look at Matt Whiteside, for example: he has a respectable 3.09 ERA for the SkyChiefs, after being beaten like a rented mule when up here. Perhaps some pitchers are doomed to be too good for AAA but not good enough for The Show. Or perhaps Gaudin, who is still very young, just needs more time to develop. Come home, Dave Bush - all is forgiven.
Grade: F

Roy Halladay
46.0 39 3 39 2.15
Has improved from being merely outstanding to being totally otherworldly. Walked only three batters all month while striking out 39. Even Pedro in his prime wasn't that good. Has single-handedly kept his team on the fringes of contention. The best pitcher on the planet, bar none.
Grade: A+

Ted Lilly
30.0 24 12 21 4.20
After all the drama, his numbers are starting to settle down to where they were last year. But it may be too late: Gibbons and his coaching staff seem to have washed their hands of him. While Lilly may, indeed, be uncoachable, causing even a saint to want to go berserk with a clue stick, it's a bad sign when a manager can't get along with one of his regulars. At the major league level, the manager's primary job is to motivate his players and get them to work towards team goals. Anybody is smart enough to know when to change pitchers.
Grade: C+

Scott Schoeneweis
7.1 3 5 6 2.45
The Jays' bullpen depth has forced him into the role of left-handed one-out guy, which he handles as well as anybody. Oh to be a lefty in the majors: you earn hundreds of thousands of dollars, and work only a few innings a month. It's a great way to earn a living, if you can get it.

By the way, Schoeneweis is one of three Jays' relievers who walked five batters and struck out six this month. Perhaps they went on some sort of Outward Bound group bonding session on a day off, as they're all beginning to seem interchangeable.
Grade: B-

Justin Speier
12.2 8 2 10 1.42
A quietly effective month; throws strikes. I'm surprised he isn't getting more work in key situations. I suppose there's no point in trying to fix something when it's not broken. The bullpen is one of the success stories for the Jays this year, which is a refreshing change from previous years. If something happens to Batista, Speier is likely the next in line to be The Man. Did not walk five or strike out six this month.
Grade: A

Josh Towers
35.0 39 11 22 4.37
Lost his control for a bit there - and without his excellent control, he's nothing. Then, he went back to being what he usually is: a competent fifth starter who is best suited to large ballparks and/or lineups without much power. He'd probably be really successful in St. Louis. Was second on the team in innings pitched this month.
Grade: C

Pete Walker
22.1 20 6 6 2.82
Struck out only 6 batters in 22 1/3 innings, which is a huge red flag. Normally, a pitcher can't be successful in the majors unless he strikes out at least one man every two innings; I call this the Michalak Line. If a pitcher is below the Michalak Line, he is usually about to get stomped or is hiding an injury. Walker deserves an extended shot at the starting rotation, but I wonder whether he can hold the job. Sadly, I think he's going to wind up on the DL, which is where he usually ends up when someone tries to stretch him out.
Grade: B+

Overall
The Jays have above-average pitching, which is cancelled out by equally below-average hitting. The result: a .500 team. As I said last month, it'll be hard to get better than this, as the Jays have a bunch of sorta okay players rather than some excellent players and some awful players. And the farm system isn't going to be as much help as some people think: there's no hitting at all coming up (except perhaps Hattig), and at most one or two of the young pitchers will make it all the way to the major league level. If the Jays want to get better, they're going to have to open their wallet.

But a .500 record is better than a .450 record, not to mention .400, and the Jays are still within striking distance of contention, which hasn't happened in a while. And who would have predicted that the Jays and the Yankees would be level at the end of June, especially considering that the Yankees have spent approximately a hillion jillion gazillion dollars more on their squad? Me, I'm not complaining.

Posted by Dave Till on Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 05:40 PM EDT.

Blue Jays Report Card for June 2005 | 37 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Magpie - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#121162) #

You know, Dave, just because you do an outstanding job every month doesn't mean we should take it for granted. Bravo and Huzzahs and Kudos.

I agree that Walker's overall K/IP rate is extremely disturbing. But for some reason, the details reassure me a bit. It's not as if he's going out and pitching 5 IP and striking out 1 batter every time. Instead he had a 6 IP start where he didn't strike out anyone - and three straight relief appearances at the beginning of the month, also totalling 6 IP, where he didn't strike out anyone either. In between, he posted his 6 Ks in 10.1 IP, (two relief outings and one start.) So at the moment, I think it's just One of Those Things.

But I want to see him back in the bullpen. I think Pete Walker in the rotation is the Peter Principle come to life.

King Ryan - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#121167) #

I agree with Magpie; these reports are quite excellent.

The six batters that Walker struck out this month were:

Brian Roberts
Luis Matos
Sammy Sosa
Geoff Jenkins
Rickie Weeks
Brad Ausmus

Meh. Felt like looking it up.

Ron - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#121171) #

Hinske's stats are disturbing.

The big question is which is the real Eric Hinske? Is it the player we saw in his rookie season or the 2 and half seasons since?

I've also noticed the fans inside the RC have started to boo Hinske at an alarming rate. When asked about the jeers over a week ago he said he didn't hear it. I still remember a game in his rookie season where he yelled at a ump from the bench to defend one of his teammates (I think it was on the road vs. the Indians). He showed a lot fire and by all accounts he's a great person off the field. But if the Jays want to contend for a playoff spot/championship, trotting Hinske out there everyday isn't going to cut it.

Jim - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#121173) #

'The Cash for Gaudin deal isn't looking as good now - even a .150 average would be an improvement on what Huck is bringing to the table.'

Honestly, anyone with an internet connection should be able to find a better option then Huckaby right now. The first team I checked in the Atlantic League (Long Island) has Steve Torrealba catching. Atlantic City has Mike Rivera. There is just no way in hell that Mike Rivera can't outplay Ken Huckaby. He's hitting 373/403/542, sure it's only 59 at bats, but this is Major League Baseball and there is no excuse for Ken Huckaby. If he wants to play out the season then please send him to Syracuse, if he wants to coach then just end it and make him a coach somewhere. Just please stop wasting the roster space. It's embarrassing to the organization.

Jim - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#121174) #

'Low K/IP is a warning sign.'

I've been giving thought to the idea that lately too much emphasis is being put on K/IP.

The five best K/9 rates on the Jays are the 5 worst pitchers according to VORP.

Whiteside 12.27, -5.7
Gaudin 9.58, -7.4
League 7.71, -2.1
Schoeneweis 7.71, -2.3
Lilly 7.08, -5.7

Sure there are sample size issues all over the place. I haven't really spent a lot of time looking around the league, it's just a 'feeling' I have.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#121175) #

The Dog had a better month than the Cat, but then he always does in my view. Position and defensive performance more than offset the OBP difference. They were similarly below average relative to position in terms of their offence this month, but it would be hard to imagine a greater defensive difference. O-Dog should be a C, and Cat a C-.

Nicely done, Dave.

Mick Doherty - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#121177) #

O-Dog should be a C

Mike, gotta admit, at first I thought you were advocating a positional switch!

Ryan C - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#121180) #

I seem to recall that the last person whose desire to win was unfairly questioned was Shannon Stewart. It may be a coincidence that both Wells and Stewart are African-American.

Sorry, I loved the rest of the report and think it was an awesomely well done job but this comment almost wrecked the whole thing for me. It just really really bugs me when race is brought up in matters that have absolutely nothing to do with race. And I think anyone who believes Vernon is lacking in desire to win needs to have their head examined.

If it was brought up as a response to someone else then I apologize for not being up to speed.

Mick Doherty - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#121182) #

Ryan, I hear where you're coming from, but unfortunatly, everything has at least something to do with race. And it is simply true that one of the historical stereotypes of the black man (and by extension, the black athlete) is one of laziness and lack of desire.

And you have to admit, both Stewart and Wells have been critiqued, both here and in other outlets, for supposedly having that fault. You never hear the black athlete called "a scrappy gamer" like Catalanotto or Menechino.

What I like about Dave's post is that it includes an observation, not an accusation. And as long as we are aware of the circumstances and keep pointing them out, then the likelihood is that the stereotypes will eventually go away.

Not every black athlete is criticized in this precise way (see the famous "Socrates is a man" syllogism for the logic problem) -- Dick Allen and Barry Bonds, yes. Willie Mays and Kirby Puckett, no. The basic criticism of Mark McGwire was "he wanted to succeed so much he cheated." The basic criticism of Sammy Sosa has been "he let down his teammates."

There are endless examples on both sides, but I'd wager quite a lot I could with very little effort come up with a much longer list of black athletes criticized for lack of hustle, effort and desire than you could of white athletes. There are exceptions on both sides, obviously.

Mike D - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#121184) #

at most one or two of the young pitchers will make it all the way to the major league level

I assume you mean this season, Dave, and not ever. That said, it's another fine report card.

westcoast dude - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#121185) #

No way Huckaby deserves an F after his fine performance backing Zaun in the 11 inning thriller this week. I'd like to see him used more in late innings, like Johnson. Myers was an F. The Huckster is a solid C.

Tyler - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#121186) #

It may be a coincidence that both Wells and Stewart are African-American.

So Richard Griffin is writing here now, eh?

You never hear the black athlete called "a scrappy gamer" like Catalanotto or Menechino.

I don't know that this has anything to do with race. The two guys you've referenced are guys who are marginal major leaguers-neither of them would be starters on an elite team. I can't think of too many marginal players of minority background who get termed lazy either-for most guys in the position of a Menechino or (less so) a Catalanotto, if they weren't willing to work hard, they wouldn't be where they are. I can see your point that the label seems to get more readily applied to white guys, but don't know that even that means anything. It's dumb, but dumb and racism do not necessarily intersect.

As for this being an observation, and not an accusation...it reminds me of Pamela Wallin interviewing John Turner in the mid-1980's. She said something along the lines of "Many have said that you have a drinking problem. Anything to say about that?" This is in the same vein.

Jdog - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#121187) #

Good Job Dave!

Mike I got to disagree and say that Cat easily deserves the better grade. If the grades were dished out taking into accout the expected offensive output from the position, then your correct however, I think he is simply dishing out the grades based on performance for the month of June. And a .100 difference in OBP is large.

As for Huckaby, great block of the plate but many a catchers can do that....he deserves an F.....a F'n demotion!

Magpie - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#121189) #

the historical stereotypes

Exhibit A along these lines was always Trammell and Whitaker. You could hardly ask for two more similar players. Guess which one was always the scrappy gamer and which was always the shiftless space cadet?

Coincidence? Oh, maybe...

R Billie - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#121190) #

As I said last month, it'll be hard to get better than this, as the Jays have a bunch of sorta okay players rather than some excellent players and some awful players. And the farm system isn't going to be as much help as some people think: there's no hitting at all coming up (except perhaps Hattig), and at most one or two of the young pitchers will make it all the way to the major league level. If the Jays want to get better, they're going to have to open their wallet.

This is what I brought up in the off-season. If you look at where a lot of the money is being made on the current roster, a lot of it is going to average to above-average players. Exceptions are Halladay ($10.5) and Wells ($3) and MAYBE Ted Lilly ($3.1) if he can be competent for a long stretch. Cory Koskie ($3.5) is above average in the long term if he stays healthy but can he stay healthy and productive at his age? Is Miguel Batista ($4.8) for real or just in a hot streak? Hard to say but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

Shea Hillenbrand ($3.9), Eric Hinske ($3.1), Scott Schoeneweiss ($2.5), Justin Speier ($1.9), and Cat ($2.7) represent about $14.1 million out of a payroll just under $50 million.

And yeah the Jays have more money to spend next year but that has to cover off arbitration cases like Hudson and increasing salaries for Halladay, Wells, Hinske, Hillenbrand (since they seem bent on bringing him back), and the second year of contracts like Schoe, Speier, etc.

So realistically you might be down to $15M-$20M or so to spend for next year if you don't subtract salary somehow. Which might buy you two impact players. Maybe three if you're lucky.

But the point is it HAS to be used to buy impact players because that's the only way the team is going to improve significantly. They aren't going to be better than .500 by being average at every position. They actually need more standout players like Halladay and Wells and Hill if they want to really compete with the teams ahead of them.

I don't know how you do it since their free agent options always seem to be scarce for whatever reason. But you have to make it happen somehow. Trade for Burnett and work out a contract with him (he's already said he would be open to doing a contract with Baltimore). Try buying a little bit low on Huff. You have to be aggressive because the options this year are relatively bare compared to last year. Don't sit back while the Orioles and Red Sox trade for Burnett and Schmidt. If '06 and '07 are your years the time to get better is now.

I would deem McGowan and untouchable on the farm and make everyone else available. Halladay, Wells, and Hill are your untouchables in the majors and everyone else is available if it improves the 2007 situation beyond another battle for .500.

What worries me is that JP stated on the radio that his preference is for NOT having star players and building a team with "chemistry" and a lot of players who are about the same level of ability. Which is great if you're after consistent third place finishes but you can't make the playoffs unless you have good to great performance at a lot of positions.

Right now Halladay and Hill and an improving Wells and Lilly are the biggest reasons the Jays haven't fallen more than 10 games out in June. They need more than this. A lot more.

CaramonLS - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#121192) #

Sorry Mick I disagree with your Sammy/Big Mac comparison. Mcgwire came out of that Steriod thing looking like a pile of slimey garbage, much much MUCH worse than Sosa has or ever did look.

Sosa let down his teammates because he left Wrigley during the last game of the season.

Fawaz - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#121193) #

I think it's perfectly reasonable to wonder if the perceptions related to hustle are somehow dictated by race and, as usual, I think this sensitive subject was tackled appropriately at Da Box. The perception that minorities are lazy is startlingly prevalent in society at large (in Canada, the label is often placed on First Nation's people) and when the disparity between the perceptions of white and non-white players is so obvious, it deserves further investigation lest a very real problem be allowed to fester. Note that no causal link has been decided, it was merely suggested that it merited a closer look.

As for Wells, I believe the perception stems more from his fluidity in the field than from his race; he just makes it look too easy, so when he screws up it looks worse.

costanza - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#121194) #

The one who wore a uniform with a hand-drawn "1" on the back in the All-Star game? (Yes, I realize it wasn't his fault, but sadly that's one of the first things that comes to mind about him...)

As far as it being easy to find someone who can out-hit Huckaby, it might be worth noting the following:

Huck - .125/.197/.143
John Flaherty - .193/.233/.228
Vance Wilson - .120/.228/.120
Adam Melhuse - .122/.122/.171
Josh Bard - .170/.274/.245
Miguel Olivo - .150/.178/.239
Geronimo Gil - .198/.213/.352

In a league where Pat Borders is a starting Catcher, maybe we shouldn't be expecting too much offence from our backup?

Dave Till - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#121195) #

I don't know that this has anything to do with race. The two guys you've referenced are guys who are marginal major leaguers-neither of them would be starters on an elite team.

Hillenbrand also has been praised for his scrappiness (though I suppose he wouldn't be a starter on an elite team either).

As for this being an observation, and not an accusation...it reminds me of Pamela Wallin interviewing John Turner in the mid-1980's.

Your analogy isn't quite valid, as I'm not accusing anyone in particular, or Jays fans as a group, of racism. Hey, it may very well be a coincidence that Wells and Stewart are both African-American. Temperament may be more of an issue than race: both men are laid-back types. Given how well they've done in the majors, I'd say that laid-back is good: intense gamers tend to go into slumps more often (e.g. Hinske).

All I know for sure is that a lot of people have questioned Wells's work ethic lately. Given that he hit .330 this month, I'd say we need more players like him.

And, for the record: now that Delgado is gone, Vernon Wells is my favourite Blue Jay.

Dave Till - Thursday, June 30 2005 @ 11:51 PM EDT (#121196) #

And one more comment:

As for Wells, I believe the perception stems more from his fluidity in the field than from his race; he just makes it look too easy, so when he screws up it looks worse.

You know, that might be it. Many years ago, Frank Mahovlich was pilloried by Toronto sports fans for looking like he wasn't trying, and I think it was for the same reason: he moved so gracefully that he didn't seem to sweat.

I enjoy watching Wells play centre field, just as I enjoyed watching Devon White, because he knows exactly where a fly ball is going to land, and exactly how much energy he needs to expend to get there. It's a joy to watch an outfielder run down a ball in the gap and to realize that said outfielder didn't even have to go into top gear. It's got to be demoralizing for opposition hitters - "Jeez! He wasn't even breathing hard! Maybe I'll hit the ball on the ground next time - oh, wait, the O-Dog is playing there..." :-)

Mick Doherty - Friday, July 01 2005 @ 12:30 AM EDT (#121200) #

I can't think of too many marginal players of minority background who get termed lazy either-for most guys in the position of a Menechino or (less so) a Catalanotto, if they weren't willing to work hard, they wouldn't be where they are.

Ironically, you bring up a tangent point that support my original post. The players you term "most guys in the position of a Menechino or (less so) a Catalanotto" are white.

I've heard this said more often about the NBA, but have you ever noticed that the 12th man on an NBA team is almost always a white guy? (I recall this being termed "The Greg Kite Effect.")

The argument from race politics activists is that given two equivalent talents -- in competitive athletics, we can assume that actual better talent, at least one would hope, actually does win out regardless of race -- especially at the bottom of a roster, the "minority" (a term becoming less and less meaningful in its statistical definition) candidate will always lose out. So the white guys are the only ones being called scrappy because the onlys scrappy guys making the big leagues are white.

I actually don't know if that's true and am confident that half of you reading this have already though of exceptions. But if you look at the last guy on most major league benches, if it's not a Rule 5 guy being protected or some other out-of-the-ordinary case, it's probably a white kid.

It's also true that more white kids, at least in North America, play baseball than "minorities," so I'm not sure we can draw conclusions based on my own admittedly hperbolic and completely anecdotal observations.

King Ryan - Friday, July 01 2005 @ 01:45 AM EDT (#121203) #

I've been giving thought to the idea that lately too much emphasis is being put on K/IP.

The five best K/9 rates on the Jays are the 5 worst pitchers according to VORP.

This is one of those cases where a pitcher is so incredibly bad, that he faces far more batters in an inning than usual, and makes K/IP moot. I would bet that, in general, most pitchers average around the same amount of batters faced per inning, which is why K/IP (or K/9IP) is fine, but a guy like Matt Whiteside is so awful in his brief stint that he ends up facing about 12 batters per inning, and thus gets 12 chances at a strikeout. In other words, if you were to use K/BF instead of K/IP I bet you'd get a different top 5.

King Ryan - Friday, July 01 2005 @ 02:04 AM EDT (#121204) #

In fact, here are the Blue Jays K/BF leaders:

Whiteside .201
Halladay .193
Gaudin .186
Schoeneweis .185
League .178

Well, crap! That didn't really work, did it? And I thought I was being all smart for once. At least we got Halladay up there and kicked out Lilly.

Chuck - Friday, July 01 2005 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#121208) #

I've been giving thought to the idea that lately too much emphasis is being put on K/IP. The five best K/9 rates on the Jays are the 5 worst pitchers according to VORP.

There are two separate arguments that are getting conflated. One that A implies B. And the erroneously assumed corollary that not A implies not B.

In this case, A is a low K rate and B is lack of future success. A low K rate does, most often, portend lack of future success.

However, that does not imply that a high K rate, necessarily, portends future success. Yes, it often does, but this is a separate issue from low K rates.

The predictive of values of low and high K rates (be they K/IP or K/BF) need to be studied separately.

Jim - Friday, July 01 2005 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#121209) #

I was really trying to make 2 separate points.

1. It SEEMS to me this year that there are more pitchers then usual doing well with low K Rates.
2. I FEEL like many analysts on the internet have put too much stock in K/IP, it is everywhere.

I stumbled upon the Blue Jays factoid when I went looking to see if Halladay had more VORP then the rest of the staff combined (he doesn't).

I don't have any research to back up my feelings. It's just an opinion...

Some stuff you might not have tripped on.

Sickels has a Cannon blub up at minorleagueball.com - the Blue Jays Top 20 review was also in the past few days.

I haven't read it yet, but baseballanalysts.com also has a Blue Jays top 10 review that is still on the front page.

BallGuy - Friday, July 01 2005 @ 08:48 AM EDT (#121211) #

Race is often an issue whether we want to admit it or not. Racism is ingrained in our society and, as much as Canadians like to believe it is not, racism exists here in a very real way.
My wife and I are currently adopting a baby from China and we have been warned about racism towards our future little girl and have experienced it first hand (and we don't even have her yet).
If you are aware of it and look around it is easy to see; you can see it in stores, on the subway....anywhere where people interact and mingle. Often it is subtle but is certainly there.
To suggest race is a basis for the ongoing criticism of Vernon is quite valid. To suggest it is not is naive.

westcoast dude - Friday, July 01 2005 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#121212) #

C is for Catcher and chemistry and Cash, who mishandled Hendrickson into a second inning meltdown on Wednesday. I remember Mark pitching a gem with Zaun receiving in Seattle two years ago when the Mariners were still contenders. Who cares what their BA is as long as they can quarterback the man on the mound?

sweat - Friday, July 01 2005 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#121221) #

Racism certainly does exist, but letting it affect your life on a daily basis would be a mistake. My girlfriends aunt and uncle adopted to children from China, and while they get some odd looks from time to time, they have not had any real issues.

Chuck - Friday, July 01 2005 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#121223) #

My two cents on the racism issue...

I certainly don't dispute that racism exists. That would be stupid. But I'm wondering if there isn't some bizarre "reverse racism" that's perhaps at the core of many misperceptions. It seems to me that whites consider black athletes more genetically predisposed to being gifted athletically, much the same way that Asians are considered to be genetically predisposed to being musical virtuosos or mathematically gifted.

I wonder if such assumptions are born of ignorance, rather than genuine racism. I do concede that the manifestations of these assumptions certainly appear to be racist.

I'm wondering if expectations are higher for Vernon Wells because he is black. When those expectations are not met, explanations are sought. Those explanations -- laziness, lack of mental acuity, whatever -- may be entirely invalid and certainly appear racist, but exist to bridge the gap between expectation (which is perhaps not realistic) and performance.

Someone like Catalanotto, upon whom we simply don't bestow the same ceiling as Wells, performs closer (or exceeds) our much lower expectations.

If we assume that Wells has inate physical gifts that Catalanotto does not, then we assume that any success Wells achieves is almost in spite of himself whereas any success Catalanotto achieves is the result of hard work.

I'm not old enough to have lived through the Mantle/Mays years, but what I've read seems consistent with what I am saying. Mays, being black, was preternaturally graced with superhuman athletic gifts. Mantle, our good ol' white farmboy, worked for hours on the farm developing his switch-hitting skills.

The likely truth of the matter, that they were both naturally gifted and hardworking athletes is rarely given as a reason for their comparable professional success. Was the natural athlete vs. the self-made man business a byproduct of racism? Perhaps. But could sheer ignorance -- the absurd belief that Mays had a genetic advantage due to race -- also have been at the root?

Mick Doherty - Friday, July 01 2005 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#121224) #

Chuck, that's a terrific post. I disagree with parts of it, or at least with parts of what it implies, but I'm very pleased that this thread has led to the kind of high-minded discussion these topics deserve rather than the typical online discussion about controversial threads that inevitably degenerates into somebody calling somebody else a Nazi.

Getting back on topic, I think there's a lot of validity to what you say, especially when you can wrap your mind around the seemingly contradictory idea that too-high expectations based on race is a negative, a real form of racism in itself. And I think that may lead to some of the "NBA 12th man decisions" I alluded to earler.

Off the top of my head, take two guys who were both viewed as guaranteed future All-Stars based on talent and early high minors or rookie MLB production. Todd Hollandsworth still has a job and has even worked his way into being a moderately productive major leaguer. Ruben Mateo, not so much.

Again, that's just off the top of my head and YMMV.

CeeBee - Friday, July 01 2005 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#121235) #

Race as well as cultural issues can be a factor in atheletics. Certain race's are better suited to activities such as the leaping ability for basketball players, size, especially height in basketball as well. The size/quickness of defensive linemen and linebackers. Short distance speed(100 meter runners), long distance running ability, the list is almost endless. Obviously there are exceptions but to discount race as being a major factor just doesn't make sense. Groups of people have evoloved over time to survive in their local conditions and IMO this certainly plays a role in atheletics.

uglyone - Friday, July 01 2005 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#121239) #

Great player by player job....but I'll quibble with the conclusion....

[i]The Jays have above-average pitching, which is cancelled out by equally below-average hitting. The result: a .500 team.[/i]

The Jays have top-5 pitching, and average hitting (at least with Koskie in there).

That's better than a .500 team, as the +30 run differential attests.

StephenT - Friday, July 01 2005 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#121266) #

To support Jim's point: Tommy John fell below the "Michalak line" at age 36 (every season was below 4.5 K/9 from 1979 on), and he "only" won 96 more games.

Magpie - Friday, July 01 2005 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#121270) #

Tommy John represents about the absolute extreme you can go in not getting strikeouts and still being effective. John didn't walk people, didn't give up home runs, kept the double play in order, and threw a million ground balls. He gave up lots and lots of singles, but that was the only way you could beat him.

I'm not really old enough to remember how Mantle and Mays were perceived while they were active, and certainly not while they were in their respective primes. I'm pretty sure that Mays was regarded as greater while they were active; he certainly seemed to have charmed a much greater portion of the print media.

In retrospect, I think it's probably fair to say that Willie Mays did more with his phenomenal natural gifts than Mickey did with his. He certainly took much better care of them. It's probably also fair to say that Mantle's gifts may have been even more impressive than Mays - he was certainly both stronger and faster.

Magpie - Friday, July 01 2005 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#121271) #

Race as well as cultural issues can be a factor in atheletics.

I think there may actually be something to this. As I said elsewhere elite level athletics take place at the extreme margins of human performance. Tiny and trivial distinctions, so razor-thin as to be imperceptible anywhere else, can actually be seen in these circumstances.

Like at the starting line for the 100 metres in every Olympiad, where every one is of African descent. But I suspect that if you took 20 or 50 or 100 people at random off the street, and had them run 100 metres, you wouldn't see any racially based differences.

Things get weird at the margins of human performance. The trivial becomes important, the tiny becomes enormous. The exact same thing happens in professional chess, where only one woman, Judit Polgar, has ever been able to crack the Top 20 players, ever. This is despite an enormous effort in the former Soviet Union and its former satelites to teach the game to girls. An effort that was wildly successful, by the way, and produced an enormous number of great female chess players. But none of whom could play on quite the same level as the best men.

They'd wipe up the floor with you and me, though. Oh, it would be brutal, I don't even want to think about it...

Gabriel - Friday, July 01 2005 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#121278) #

I grew ap a huge Tiger fan and the differences in the perceptions to Lou and Tram were there for a reason. Simply, Whitiker was a jerk and Trammell was very approachable. I am not sure if it's racism exactly, but there are a lot more mediocre white players. I think it's for the same reason teams keep hiring the same managers. The "great guys in the clubhouse" (meaning they can't hit) say someone like Denny Hocking, are on teams for the same reason Phil Garner and Mike Hargrove keep getting hired. It's an old boys network. This is especially true because most black players are now Latin American and have no connection to old-time baseball players and managers who control the game. Guess the race of the following hypothetical baseball player.

1) A typical no-hit, great defensive short stop.
2) He doesn't have the talent of some other guys, but he plays the game right.
3) He's incredibly fast and covers a lot of ground in the outfield but has questionable baseball instincts..

Mike Green - Saturday, July 02 2005 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#121321) #

For every Tommy John, who benefited from being a lefty in Yankee, there are plenty of Allan Andersons, Dave Flemings. They look good, but just can't strike out enough to survive.

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