Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - What's Going to Happen in the AL East?

Not in the sunshine or the distance between
The cigarettes we burn
The books we claim to read

Standings as of June 27th, 2005

1. Boston       44-30 .595         (11-1 2WK)
2. Baltimore    42-33 .560  2.5 GB  (6-7 2WK)
3. New York     38-37 .507  6.5 GB  (8-5 2WK)
4. Toronto      38-38 .500  7.0 GB  (7-6 2WK)
5. Tampa Bay    26-50 .342 19.0 GB  (5-8 2WK)

Boston's lone loss over the last two weeks was a 2-0 loss to the Pirates in an epic Tim Wakefield vs. Dave Williams matchup. The team went 2-1 vs. the Pirates, 3-0 vs. Cleveland, and 3-0 vs. the Phillies. The Red Sox gained 5.5 games on the Orioles after playing only 12 games - and the Orioles haven't been playing all that badly! Youneverknow.

Are the Red Sox for real? The gaming community over at Tradesports.com seems to think so:

Percentage Chance of Winning the Division

Boston:    58% (36% 2 Weeks Ago)
New York:  33% (33% 2 Weeks Ago)
Baltimore: 17% (27% 2 Weeks Ago) 
Toronto:    2% ( 4% 2 Weeks Ago) 
Tampa Bay:  0% ( 0% 2 Weeks Ago)

Percentage Chance of Winning the Pennant

Boston:    23% (16% 2 Weeks Ago)
New York:  18% (20% 2 Weeks Ago)
Baltimore:  8% ( 9% 2 Weeks Ago)
Toronto:    1% ( 1% 2 Weeks Ago)
Tampa Bay:  0% ( 0% 2 Weeks Ago)

I've been trying to figure out what's going to happen in the division and I'm at a bit of a loss. There's a number of ways this division could play out. Here's a few that I've seen:

Boston Red Sox - Plus Scenario

The Red Sox continue to chug away on all cylinders and add some bullpen help (Eddie Guardado?, Octavio Dotel?) at the deadline as Matt Mantei and Keith Foulke have struggled all year long. Clement continues to pitch well and Schilling comes back strong near the end of August. THe team wins 100 games and easily takes the division.

Boston Red Sox - Minus Scenario

The bullpen implodes and the team is unable to find that the Yankees have driven the price of quality relievers too high on the trade market. Schilling is unable to return this season and Clement and/or Arroyo falter down the stretch. The team still wins nearly 90 games but it isn't enough to take the division or the Wild Card from surging Orioles and Yankees teams.

Boston Red Sox - Likely Scenario

The team plays .580 ball for the rest of the season, wins about 95 games, enough for a playoff position.

Baltimore Orioles - Plus Scenario

The cast of nobodies in the rotation slows down a bit but still pitches strong enough to let their powerful bats win games for them. The team adds a veteran pitcher (Kip Wells?) to shore up the staff as well as an additional bat for the outfield. The bullpen remains solid and the team finishes in the low-mid 90s for wins, enough for a playoff spot.

Baltimore Orioles - Minus Scenario

The rotation completely collapses and Erik Bedard is unable to return to form from his knee injury. Brian Roberts turns back into a pumpkin and the team loses a lot of 7-5 games, falling behind both the Yankees and the Blue Jays in the standings.

Baltimore Orioles - Likely Scenario

The team adds a couple of players at the deadline, but no one significant. The team hums along at a .550 clip for the season, finishing at 90 wins - 4 games behind the Wild Card winner.

New York Yankees - Plus Scenario

George Steinbrenner opens his wallet and acquires practically every player at the deadline including a gaggle of relivers and Bret Boone from the Mariners. This improves the team while at the same time makes it difficult for the Orioles and Red Sox to acquire reinforcements. Randy Johnson turns back into the Randy Johnson of old, and teamed with a revitalized Mike Mussina provide a potent 1-2 punch down the stretch. The team goes on fire during the second half, wins nearly 100 games in total along with another division title.

New York Yankees - Minus Scenario

Instead of acquiring anyone good the Yankees deal for a bunch of washed up players like Bret Boone from the Mariners. They do little to help and the clubhouse turns to chaos. A-Rod goes out for six weeks with an ankle injury, devastating the offense. The team finishes with 74 wins, their lowest full-season total since 1991. People still complain about New York's sprendthrift ways and what it is doing to the sport.

New York Yankees - Likely Scenario

They acquire everyone at the deadline and play well during the second half and finish in the low 90s in wins, which may or may not be good enough for a Wild Card.

Toronto Blue Jays - Plus Scenario

Boston and Baltimore's minus scenarios come true and the Yankees continue to play at a .500 clip. Sensing an opportunity, the Jays acquire A.J. Burnett at the break, but at a hefty price. Roy Halladay continues to be Roy Halladay and Ted Lilly finds his groove. Vernon Wells becomes the team leader we all know he's capable of and carries the team on his back to a 95-win season and a wild card spot.

Toronto Blue Jays - Minus Scenario

Roy Halladay feels a twinge in his arm and Vernon Wells pulls a hamstring. J.P. does little at the deadline, not liking the prices being offered for his veterans. Alex Rios is overmatched at centre, the team loses a lot of low scoring games and goes 30-56 over the next few months, finishing the year at 68 wins. But they still finish ahead of Tampa!

Toronto Blue Jays - Likely Scenario

The Jays are neither a buyer nor a seller at the deadline and continue with the same team they've had all year long. Everyone plays at about the same level they have all year and the Jays finish right around the .500 mark - about 7 games better than I expected them to at the beginning of the year.

Your Thoughts?

So what do you expect will happen down the stretch?

Posted by Pepper Moffatt on Monday, June 27 2005 @ 12:25 PM EDT.

What's Going to Happen in the AL East? | 37 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Mick Doherty - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#120760) #

And I was looking forward to reading your Devil Rays Plus Scenario!

Jordan - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#120763) #

Devil Rays Plus-Scenario: Contraction.

Great summary, Mike, but I think that if the Red Sox were to acquire Octavio Dotel, currently out for the year, that would probably push them into the minus camp. :-)

John Northey - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#120764) #

I expect the Orioles to free-fall and drop to 4th by the end of the season (might just be wishful thinking though). The Yankees will pick up the pace but not catch the Sox. The Jays fight with the Yanks for 2nd giving hope for 2006.

Devil Rays plus situation? Someone throws a no-hitter to give fans something to cheer about before Lou goes insane and, instead of kicking dirt on an umpire, throws a player at an umpire.

VBF - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#120767) #

No, the best thing to happen to the DevilRays is for them to pull a Whoopi Goldberg on them and hire a fan to be the manager.

Anyways, I hear they have ottoman's at drop dead prices.

Pepper Moffatt - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#120768) #

Whoops.. I forgot Dotel was out. This is why I'm in a B-school, not working in MLB. :)

I actually started working on a Devil Rays section, but I thought it would be too cruel "Their upside is 65 wins, leaving them 15 back of whoever finishes in 4th!"

HollywoodHartman - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#120769) #

Man Eddy is an awesome movie

"IVAN TAKE CHARGE!!"

Alex0888 - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#120770) #

So, when does everyone vote the Blue Jays' next playoff season to be? 2007?

rtcaino - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#120774) #

Sounds like the next Batter's Box Poll Alex.

Jobu - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#120775) #

Never mind devil rays plus, I'd like to hear what could be considered a *minus* scenario for the team as it is. What would that have to contain??

Lou Pinella signs a 10 year extension?

Crawford gives up baseball to pursue his real passion in life, his love of the dance?

Team jet takes a wild detour and crash lands in the Andes?

Jobu - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#120776) #

Aaron Reynolds, starting short stop?

Alex0888 - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#120780) #

Maybe Tampa isn't meant for baseball just as the Jamaicans aren't meant for bobsledding?

Hey, at least they tried...

Mike Green - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#120782) #

Cool Runnings wouldn't be a bad nickname for a Gathright/Crawford combo in the outfield.

Mike Forbes - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#120795) #

From Rotoworld:

"According to TSN's Ken Rosenthal, the Marlins are engaged in preliminary discussions about A.J. Burnett with the Orioles and an undisclosed American League club.
At least for now, Florida would only trade Burnett with the intention of still contending this year. They'd want to also move Juan Encarnacion in the deal and get a young starting pitcher, a setup man and a left-handed hitting outfielder. Rosenthal suggests that the Orioles could part with Daniel Cabrera or Hayden Penn, Jorge Julio and Larry Bigbie for Burnett and Encarnacion. Jun. 27 - 2:11 pm et
Source: FOXSports.com"

This sounds like a very makeable trade for the Jays. A young starting pitcher? Dave Bush? Fransisco Rosario? Josh Banks?
A Set up man? How about Justin Speier, Jason Frasor or Vinny Chulk? A lefthanded hitting outfielder? Hello Mr. Catalonotto or Mr. Gsbriel Gross.

I know Encarnacion isn't exactly someone you'd all fall in love with but he's a very good outfielder with a strong but inconsistant bat. He'd do well until JP could find a way to package him away.

Of course the reason we'd be doing this is to get AJ Burnett, who is a free agent at years end. But we'd have 4 months to hammer out a longterm deal and AJ has said numerous times that he'd play anywhere Brad Arnsberg coached so that would help the negotiations.

Thoughts?

VBF - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#120796) #

Me likes, but everything always seems too good to be true.

mistermike - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#120798) #

Toronto Blue Jays - Plus Scenario
Vernon Wells becomes the team leader we all know he's capable of...

I'm beginning to wonder if that will ever happen. I used to think he was a future perennial All-Star and leader of this team. I think I over-estimated him. He's definitely better than he's currently showing, but how much better?

Ron - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#120804) #

I may look foolish for saying this, but I believe Wells peaked in the 03 season. It would be strange for somebody to have his best season before his prime years but I believe Wells really benefitted from Delgado hitting behind him.

I don't see Wells topping the numbers he put up that season.

Magpie - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#120811) #

It's Bad Mojo to mock the Devil Rays just when the Jays are about to play a three game set with them. That sort of talk always comes back and bites you in the ass.

I myself was preparing the Devil Rays entry for the Lobby of Numbers, and the things I was going to have to say... well, I think it would be best if I wait a few days.

rtcaino - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#120816) #

Mike Forbes
If J.P. could get Burnett for a young pitcher, a relief guy and a lefty outfielder, he would do so in a heart beat. The only mitigating factors would be which young pitcher the Marlins demand, and the sign ability of Burnett. Could J.P. request a window to negotiate a new deal before the trade is finalized?

VBF - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#120818) #

I would imagine that the Arnsberg fatcor would make signability much more easier than trading for him in the first place. If we can pull off the trade, A.J. Burnett would have just under half a season with Arny, so I doubt that he would want to leave that situation. As long as we could put a fair, but not pricey offer on the table, a long-term extension is definitely an option.

Pistol - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#120820) #

I myself was preparing the Devil Rays entry for the Lobby of Numbers, and the things I was going to have to say... well, I think it would be best if I wait a few days.

I got a sneak peak...there's some gems in there.

Ducey - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#120821) #

Seeing that Burnett is a free agent means you just wait and see if you can sign him. I expect he would command at least $7.5 million a season and therefore Florida (who will have to start paying Carlos some money next year) will not likely offer arbitration. If so, JP could get him for nothing (except a lot of money).

The flip side is to give up 3 players in a trade, then have to sign him or offer arbitration. If he goes elsewhere you get another #1 pick (maybe) who will cost you $2 million to sign and won't help for a few years if ever.

John Northey - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#120826) #

The AJ situation I think depends largely on the Jays goals for 2005 and what they expect to happen in the free agency/trade market next offseason. Given how pitching became expensive last offseason it might be a good idea to lock up the guy you want now. If the cost is really just Cat/Gross & Speier/Frasor/Chulk & Bush/Chacin/whoever then the question becomes what upside do you see for those guys. Is it high enough to justify risking that AJ decides he is happy in Baltimore?

Gross hasn't shown much in the majors yet outside of spring training while Cat is an older player who you'd like to keep but isn't vital.

I can't see a relief pitcher being a breaking point for JP.

The young starter is the big issue though. Bush I could see being dealt. Chacin won't be at this point (possible in offseason but would be suicide to do right now). Gaudin is a possibility but I don't see JP giving up on that arm yet and I don't know if the Marlins would see him as a 2005 asset. League is a reliever, so he's out. I think Bush is the most likely for who JP would give up.

In the end though, if I was running Florida I wouldn't take Bush/reliever/Cat for AJ. I'd consider Bush/reliever/Gross but only if my scouts were sky high on Gross. They will probably insist on Chacin, who I'd be willing to trade but in real life would be very hard to give up. Florida should wait until the last minute to do a trade of AJ if at all, while JP should debate which is worse, Baltimore getting AJ or losing some top talent.

rtcaino - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#120828) #

I'm not so sure JP would rather keep Chacin over Bush. I mean Bush is a second round pick and may be seen to have more upside long term than Chacin.

Pepper Moffatt - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#120829) #

Instead of trying to trade for A.J., why not just try and sign him a few months from now?

Suppose it costs you Gross, Batista, and Chacin to get him, then to resign him, you need to sign him to an X Million/3 year deal (whatever X is).

Wouldn't it make more sense to hang on to those players and instead try to sign him for a contract later, even if it costs you X+5 million?

It depends what you figure Chacin and Gross will be worth over the next few years, but I see them being worth at least 5 million, if not 10. So why not just give a (large?) faction the extra value to Burnett rather than to the Marlins?

TamRa - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#120830) #

The problem with waiting is that someone else acquires him and signs the extension and there's one more stud off the market.

For my money, trading any reliever we have is a slam dunk. No point in even negotiating it.

Trading Cat or Gross is entirely acceptable as a price. No hesitation.

Young starter, presumably the Marlins want someone to step into the rotation right now, means either Lily, Chacin, or Bush. Anyone without major league experience is too much of a risk for a team that still considers itself a contender. My guess is they will push hard for Chacin.

I understand the concerns here, but I make that deal. IF...and only if...I get an extension signed first. For this season and next you can send out a rotation of Doc/AJ/Lily/Bush and use Towers at 5 until Rosario or someone takes it from him.

That's as good, IMO, as any rotation around if everyone plays up to their talent level - certainly good enough to be a legitimate contender.

Mike D - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#120831) #

Pepper, the only counterargument I can think of is if Burnett has let it be known that he is interested in negotiating an extension immediately with whomever acquires him. If that's true, then it might make sense to jump the line, since you're not sure there will be a line during the free agent signing period.

There's just no way JP is interested in renting Burnett. The only way the "unnamed AL club" is Toronto is if the above scenario plays out -- if Burnett will immediately agree to negotiate an extension, then the trade might make more sense.
And I was looking forward to reading your Devil Rays Plus Scenario!

Heh, heh. If you really want to talk D-Rays, the Advance Scout is live...

timpinder - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#120835) #

I think J.P.'s made it abundantly clear that he won't trade away the future for a 1/2 year rental (ie. A.J. Burnett). He might give away some prospects for an impact starting pitcher with atleast another year on their contract, maybe Zito or the best case scenario would be Oswalt, if the Astros are selling. As for Chacin, if you can get something for him trade him, he's destined for the bullpen anyway. Hitters slam him the third time around and he has bullpen written all over him, especially with McGowan, Bush, Rosario, Banks, Marcum and the three young lefties coming up.

Ron - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#120841) #

If JP has any interest in AJ the time to get him is right now. Once he hits FA he'll probably be the best pitcher in the market. I expect the usual teams (Yanks, Sox) to have their wallets out and ready to spend.

I wouldn't be suprised to see some team offer AJ a 48mil/4 year offer. The lack of good FA's is certainly going to drive up his price.

Nick - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#120843) #

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=2095057

This is interesting. In his latest column, Peter Gammons claims that JP turned down Philly in a proposed Ryan Howard-Ted Lilly swap.

Howard is currently sporting a ridiculous 378/477/699 line in AAA with 15 HR in 196 AB. He was not as impressive during his brief stint with the Phillies: 214/267/393 in 28 AB.

I know Howard strikes out a lot. I know Lilly has a reasonable contract for next year. But to me, Lilly is the sterotypical $100 arm, 5 cent head athlete. As a fan, I would not look at this deal as a rebuilding, salary dump deal as JP seems to intimate in his quote in the article linked above. Howard could give the Jays a chance at a pretty good power source in the 1B/DH slot. I don't care about the potential infield glut. If you don't want Howard, fine. But don't say we don't have room for a first baseman/DH because we already have Hinske and Koskie signed to multi-year deals. Get good players and figure the rest out later. This team as currently constructed does not score enough runs.

Nick - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#120844) #

Maybe I'll read the Game Report before I post next time.

Dr. Phil - Monday, June 27 2005 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#120853) #

Wow, what to do, what to do? Here's my thoughts.

Pitching
Jays need at least one starting pitcher and if they can trade for A.J. then I say do it. I don't want to lose Chacin, so I'd be hesitant if he's involved, but otherwise they can have Bush, or pretty much any starter the jays have other than some of the big names in the minors.
I'd love to see a starting rotation of Doc, A.J., Lilly, Chacin (or Bush is Chacin goes) and Towers. I'd be very happy about that.
As for relief, keep in mind that there are a few pitchers that are in the minors that we could call up if we traded a player from our relief corps. Miller, Arnold, League and I'm sure there is more. I don't think that they should trade Batista as it's nice to finally have a closer that we can have confidence in.

Batters
Here's where things get interesting and probably problematic.
I'm happy with Rios and Wells, even though Wells has struggled I think that we should stick with him, unless there is a great trade offer. I would trade almost anyone on the roster for Andrew Jones, but I somehow doubt that would ever happen. As for left, I would definitely trade either Cat or Gross for someone, A.J. Burnitt for example and if Juan Encarnation came back, well, it's not the end of the world. I love keeping Reed as he is a great hustler, great defender, and can probably spell when someone needs a rest. Whichever one stays between Cat and Gross stays in the platoon, as I think that we are wasting Gross right now.
Hinske I want gone. I'm sick of seeing him strike out or pop out and then fling his bat in disgust and curse over Tv. I was talking with a friend the other day and he was like, "Wow, awesome, Hinske is up and there are runners on." I predicted a K and was rewarded quite quickly, or punished for my lack of faith depending on how you look at it. I would be tempted to release him and pay for his salary for the rest of the year. I know his defence is pretty good, but his offence just plain sucks, any way you look at it. He's not hitting homeruns, not hitting for average, and not getting on base. I want him gone.
Hudson on the other hand is a different type of player. I know that he isn't really hitting that well either, but his numbers are comparable or almost better than Hinske's, and as has been discussed many many times, he is AWESOME defensively. I would trade him, but only for a great deal. Would it be possible to move Coskie to first? Would that make sense. I'd be happy with an infield of Coskie, Hudson, Adams, and Hill from right to left. Hillenbrand can spell 1st and 3rd and DH, and McDonald/Menechino can spell 2nd and SS.
Catcher needs to be upgraded. Zaun is a great guy and I love having him on the team, but I think that he would look much much better as a backup/60 games a year with a decent switch hitting bat off the bench.

Here's my team so far

Starters (5)
Doc
A.J
Lilly
Chacin
Towers

Relief (6-7)
(League/Miller/Arnold/minor league player) (if needed)
Speir/Chulk/Frasor 2 of 3 with one being traded
SS
Walker
Downs
Batista

IF (7)
1B Coskie
2B Hudson
SS Adams
3B Hill
Reserve Hillenbrand (DH), MacDonald, Menechino

OF (5)
RF Rios
CF Wells
LF Gross/Cat one being traded
Reserve Reed/ Encarnacion

That leaves two catcher spots
Zaun- preferably in the role I said and then preferably one that can hit more than his weight
If we need a 7 man bullpen then get rid of either Menechino or McDonald, even though I like them both, they both don't really have a future with the team, and although they may be missed it won't be because of their offensive contributions.

This leaves a lot of work to do to become a playoff team, but with 80 million dollars I think that I could work something.
Positions to Fix
Catcher(4million)
BIG Bat like a David Ortiz (not saying him) but one like his who can only DH(4-5 million) (I know people say that they don't like spending all that money on a bat, but they said that about spending money on a closer, and I think that it has worked out pretty well this year with Batista)
Outfielder(2-3 million)
Starting Pitcher(5 million)
One good relief pitcher (2 million)

I think that may work, but I'm open to criticism

HollywoodHartman - Tuesday, June 28 2005 @ 01:26 AM EDT (#120864) #

I like what you've done with pitching but our offence still does suck there

timpinder - Tuesday, June 28 2005 @ 02:26 AM EDT (#120866) #

Dr. Phil,
I agree with most of what you've done. I'm sick of Hinske too, if they could trade him for a water bottle I'd be happy. I differ on a few things though. I think moving Koskie to first would be a waste of his defensive skills at the hot corner. I'd rather see them re-sign Hillenbrand to play 1b full time and then spend their money on a free agent DH (Thomas? Walker?), and/or trade for a left field bat (Dunn? Giles?). The top of the rotation looks good for sure, but Burnett's going to cost about $10 million a year, not $5 million. Even Zito and Oswalt are making about $7 million now. As for the end of the rotation, I've said it before and I'll say it again, Chacin has bullpen written all over him. I like Towers, but I'd rather have Rosario or Bush as my #5 starter. I see next year a little differently.

Rotation:
Halladay
Oswalt/Burnett(or similar, picked up via trade/free agency)
Lilly (if he's not traded)
Bush
Rosario
On the way: *McGowan*, Banks, Jackson, Purcey, *Romero*

Bullpen:
Chacin (lefty)
SS (lefty)
Miller (long relief)
Speier (worth re-signing)
Chulk
Fraser
Batista (closer - if he's not traded)
On the way: Lee Groncowicz (future closer), League, Arnold, Vermilea, Whiteside

Lineup:
Hill SS (better arm than Adams)
Rios RF
Wells CF
Walker/Thomas DH(or similar,picked up via trade/free agency)
Koskie 3B
Hillenbrand 1B
Adams 2B (moved over because of his weak arm)
Gross?/Giles?/Dunn? LF
Quiroz C
Bench: Johnson, Menichino, MacDonald, Zaun
On the way: Hattig, Griffin (ie. not much)

Current major league trade bait: Hinske, Hudson, Towers, Lilly, Batista, Catalanotto, Gross, Johnson, Speier.

GeoffAtMac - Tuesday, June 28 2005 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#120942) #

Personally, I think we should engineer a "super-trade" with Florida that would shake up both rosters, hopefully for the better.

I say we trade:

Orlando Hudson
Gabe Gross or David Bush or Justin Miller (whomever they want, maybe even 2 of these 3
Justin Speier / Vinnie Chulk / Jason Frasor
Eric Hinske + $2 MIL or so to get them to take him as a bench guy

for

Juan Encarnacion
A.J. Burnett
Luis Castillo

This would free up some cash for Florida for next year or this year, give them a relief pitcher, supply them with solid defense from Hudson, and give them a guy like Hinske to flip to whomever, or maybe to keep on the bench. They would also be dumping salary from Castillo, and have cash to get what they need by not resigning Burnett, and they would be dumping Encarnacion who they have soured on.

Toronto would thus be rid of Hinske, gain Burnett (who I believe is the type of player we need to seriously ratchet up our rotation), and we would gain a better LF, to which we could properly relegate Cat / Sparky to the bench. And then don't forget the gold glove addition of Luis Castillo, who hits for average, scores runs and steals bases.

I think two solid prospects like 2/3 mentioned above of Justin Miller / Dave Bush / Gabe Gross would be fair game. We really need a guy like Burnett in T.O., and we know he likes Arnesberg. It would be a serious shame to lose out on him if we wait and lose him in the off-season. And we all know there is NO way JP pulls a deal without getting confirmation that Burnett will sign for a reasonable (however 'reasonable' might be defined) contract.

GeoffAtMac - Tuesday, June 28 2005 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#120943) #

PS, from the post above, it is my understanding that Speier is signed for both 2005 and 2006 already.

SimonB - Wednesday, June 29 2005 @ 04:00 AM EDT (#120991) #

*On the way: Lee Groncowicz (future closer), League, Arnold, Vermilea, Whiteside*

Gronk is already 26, extremely old for a prospect. He should get a shot at AAA and in the big leagues though, judging by his ridiculous AA numbers.

A lot of people see Arnold as washed up in terms of prospect status. He might still be valuable eventually, but it's starting to look like a longshot.

And isn't Matt Whiteside something like 38?

Sorry, just a few bones to pick.

timpinder - Wednesday, June 29 2005 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#121031) #

SimonB,
you're absolutely right about Whiteside. I don't know why but for some reason I had it in my head that he was only about 23 or 24. My bad, I must have been thinking about someone else.

I'm standing my ground on Gronkiewicz though. In his 4 minor league seasons, he's had an ERA of 2.53, 2.35, 2.41 and 3.03, respectively. That's not including this years "ridiculous" numbers. (0.86 ERA now?)
His minor league totals: 2.60 ERA in 215 innings, with 234 STRIKE OUTS! This year is not a fluke, just cause he isn't 21 years old doesn't mean he won't be a solid set-up man or closer in the bigs, and at 26 it's not like he's old.

As for Arnold, he'll be a regular in the bullpen in the bigs. If not with the Jays then with another team, but he'll be a solid contributor. He was tearing it up in AAA until just about a month ago when he started to slump. You're right again, though, he's not the hot SP prospect that he was when TO picked him up a couple years back.

Thanks for the constructive critiscm.

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