Bleh. I don't relish writing the Game Report for this "game."
Attendance: 8,779. :|
Even the local hockey team gets 9090 people on average (mind you it was a winning season for the London Knights)
Even the local hockey team gets 9090 people on average (mind you it was a winning season for the London Knights)
Everything is there for Rios to become an effective base-stealer. He's got speed and he gets an early read when pitchers start their motion. The problem is that his first motion is to turn towards second without actually moving towards it, he just pivots and the runs. He needs to make his first move a push off his right leg.
Against a guy like Nomo, I'd rather have seen Gross in there instead of Catalanotto since hitters were going to have to generate all the power if they wanted to take him deep. Not surprisingly, we saw a lot of WTP tonight. If Gross couldn't get a look in the ninth instead of Sparky, I don't know what it's going to take. They might as well send him back down. It's a shame, he's looked good during this stint. He's definitely earned a few more at bats than...
Hinske. Hinske. Hinske. When Hill was up with Wells on 3rd and Hillenbrand on 2nd, I was pleading for him to drive them in before Hinske came up for his inevitable strikeout. He didn't, but Hinske sure did. This match-up was as good as it can get for Hinske. If he can't deal with a soft-tossing righty, he can't keep playing first/DH.
The D-Rays. AAAAARGH!
Against a guy like Nomo, I'd rather have seen Gross in there instead of Catalanotto since hitters were going to have to generate all the power if they wanted to take him deep. Not surprisingly, we saw a lot of WTP tonight. If Gross couldn't get a look in the ninth instead of Sparky, I don't know what it's going to take. They might as well send him back down. It's a shame, he's looked good during this stint. He's definitely earned a few more at bats than...
Hinske. Hinske. Hinske. When Hill was up with Wells on 3rd and Hillenbrand on 2nd, I was pleading for him to drive them in before Hinske came up for his inevitable strikeout. He didn't, but Hinske sure did. This match-up was as good as it can get for Hinske. If he can't deal with a soft-tossing righty, he can't keep playing first/DH.
The D-Rays. AAAAARGH!
Arrgh, I agree. I only watched the first few innings but I really didn't have a good feeling about this one. Nomo wasn't pitching well but the Jays squandered a couple of good opportunities. Incidentally, one thing that drives me crazy is when, during the pregame show and early innings, Jays announcers keep talking about how the Jays can expect to feast on Nomo and the D-Rays. Everyone knows that nothing is guaranteed in baseball; that quite often the lesser team catches some breaks, or the team with the better record doesn't play as well as it should (or just doesn't hit in the clutch).
The point is, when you're playing a team like the D-Rays, you've got to be extra focussed to ensure you don't take your opponent for granted. The same thing happened when the Jays hit the west coast. ESPN commented that the Jays could really do some damage against Seattle and Oakland; JP hinted that if the team went 9-4 or thereabouts, he might start adding some talent, etc. Sure enough, the team tanked.
The point is, when you're playing a team like the D-Rays, you've got to be extra focussed to ensure you don't take your opponent for granted. The same thing happened when the Jays hit the west coast. ESPN commented that the Jays could really do some damage against Seattle and Oakland; JP hinted that if the team went 9-4 or thereabouts, he might start adding some talent, etc. Sure enough, the team tanked.
There were quite a few blunders, but the one that stood out for me was the critical baserunning error by Vernon Wells. On the upside, he had a couple of hits...
Once the new ownership is in place and LaMar is gone the Rays have a brighter future then the Jays do. I wouldn't spend so much time bashing them like many here seem to do.
Jim, I was going to write a long Devil Rays comment in response, and I still will, but let me give the instant synopsis...
1. The Devil Rays do have a nice future if they can scour out the entire front office setup and management structure. I mean everything from the operating owner (Naimoli) on down.
2. Even once the new ownership is approved and in place, Naimoli is still operating.
3. Chuck LaMar is absolutely safe as long as that happens.
4. The Devil Rays' bright future is at least four years away, even if the changeover happens today.
5. I don't know if it's a brighter future than the Jays, except in the long term. Their immediate and medium-term future is still extremely grim.
6. The strong and deep farm system the Rays enjoy is probably due to Chuck LaMar, widely recognized as one of the best builders of a farm system anywhere. If LaMar goes, there is no guarantee that this can continue, and it has to in order for their economics to work out. (Tampa faces financial restrictions similar to Minnesota's... the Twins have stayed successful on a similar model only through continuing the strong farm system that built the team initially).
7. I'm getting more verbose, and these short notes are taking on a life of their own.
8. Who do you replace them with? The Rays GM job is not exactly anyone's dream job, so the chance you'll land the best candidates is not high.
9. BUT I do agree that their long-term future is fairly bright (on talent in the system alone).
10. The hardest thing to come up with these days is good young pitching. The Devil Rays have only begun to assemble good young pitching... so I'm skeptical. They've not developed any pitching for a long time.
1. The Devil Rays do have a nice future if they can scour out the entire front office setup and management structure. I mean everything from the operating owner (Naimoli) on down.
2. Even once the new ownership is approved and in place, Naimoli is still operating.
3. Chuck LaMar is absolutely safe as long as that happens.
4. The Devil Rays' bright future is at least four years away, even if the changeover happens today.
5. I don't know if it's a brighter future than the Jays, except in the long term. Their immediate and medium-term future is still extremely grim.
6. The strong and deep farm system the Rays enjoy is probably due to Chuck LaMar, widely recognized as one of the best builders of a farm system anywhere. If LaMar goes, there is no guarantee that this can continue, and it has to in order for their economics to work out. (Tampa faces financial restrictions similar to Minnesota's... the Twins have stayed successful on a similar model only through continuing the strong farm system that built the team initially).
7. I'm getting more verbose, and these short notes are taking on a life of their own.
8. Who do you replace them with? The Rays GM job is not exactly anyone's dream job, so the chance you'll land the best candidates is not high.
9. BUT I do agree that their long-term future is fairly bright (on talent in the system alone).
10. The hardest thing to come up with these days is good young pitching. The Devil Rays have only begun to assemble good young pitching... so I'm skeptical. They've not developed any pitching for a long time.
I guess I didn't understand the D-Rays-bashing going on here on BB about a team that has embarrassed a good (admittedly not great) Yankees team all year.
What's the tag line? The kids can play.
What's the tag line? The kids can play.
A few thing noticed:
1) How come Huckaby was not pinched hit for in the ninth?
2) Upon further inspection in the game chat, it was noted that regardless of Wilner or Candiotti, Shea Hillenbrand would not have been able to make it to third after Wells was tagged out.
3) I am the defender of everything Blue Jay, but straight up, I can't defend Hinske anymore. After the quick start, everything seemed to be turning up roses for Hinske, but its all gone to shame. I can't give an explanation, and as much as I like J.P's loyalty to some players, its time to cut something loose. Whether trade of DFA, nothing right now is working.
It's a shame too. Rookie of the Year, fan favorite, nice guy. The original injury which started the whole thing, terribly unfortunate.
1) How come Huckaby was not pinched hit for in the ninth?
2) Upon further inspection in the game chat, it was noted that regardless of Wilner or Candiotti, Shea Hillenbrand would not have been able to make it to third after Wells was tagged out.
3) I am the defender of everything Blue Jay, but straight up, I can't defend Hinske anymore. After the quick start, everything seemed to be turning up roses for Hinske, but its all gone to shame. I can't give an explanation, and as much as I like J.P's loyalty to some players, its time to cut something loose. Whether trade of DFA, nothing right now is working.
It's a shame too. Rookie of the Year, fan favorite, nice guy. The original injury which started the whole thing, terribly unfortunate.
How much credit can you really give to Lamar for the farm system? When you finish last every year you're bound to have good choices.
The Devil Rays ... not developed any pitching for a long time.
Hey! What about Ryan Rupe? Bryan Rekar, Joe Kennedy, Nick Bierbrodt...
In the history of the franchise, five men have managed to win 10 games or more in a season. They are Rolando Arrojo, Albie Lopez, Tanyon Sturtze, Victor Zambrano, and Mark Hendrickson.
Reed Johnson pinch hit for Huckaby in the 9th. I let it be known rather vocally that Gross, not Johnson, should have been hitting.
Reed Johnson pinch hit for Huckaby in the 9th. I let it be known rather vocally that Gross, not Johnson, should have been hitting.
Oh, shoot, I didn't even notice that. Let me kick myself for that one.
I'm having a pretty good laugh while watching Jays in an Hour. C.B. Bucknor is yelling at Gibbons, Gibbons is yelling at C.B. Bucknor, The Heckler is yelling at Gibbons, The Heckler is yelling at C.B. Bucknor, that combined with the silence of Tropicana Field made it pretty funny to watch.
I like Gibby for the most part, and from a complete non-science aspect of baseball, he looks like a manager. When he's out there arguing, you wanna go and argue with him. If he were my manager, I'd play like crazy for him.
The missed strike calls by CB Bucknor were huge; I guess the initials stand for Completely Blind (no argument from Sheffield either)
Obviously the Devil Rays are still far from contention and they are short almost an entire pitching staff. Maybe I'm wrong, but I was under the impression that Naimoli would not be operating the club when the change occurs.
It's clear that LaMar has done a good job stocking the system with position players, I personally think he's also been disciplined with Young and Upton and I think that is the right move.
Of course much of their future rides on Kazmir, Townsend, Neimann and Houser. It's not that much different then Toronto relying on Romero, Jackson and Purcey. Of course the Blue Jays have a much better position today as well as much better depth behind their top few pitching prospects, but there are no guarantees when you've got a Van Poppel, nevermind a Janssen or a Marcum.
As far as the potential next GM goes, I'd like to see Grady Fuson get a chance, he'd have the experience of building a superior farm system. I'm sure there are also a handful of Ivy Leaguers getting experience under DePodesta, Beane, Epstein and Towers that could quickly get the team to respectability if not the playoffs.
Again, I'm not saying there is going to be a Big Green Machine, just that in a few years there is a chance that Toronto will be looking up at them for a string of seasons.
It's clear that LaMar has done a good job stocking the system with position players, I personally think he's also been disciplined with Young and Upton and I think that is the right move.
Of course much of their future rides on Kazmir, Townsend, Neimann and Houser. It's not that much different then Toronto relying on Romero, Jackson and Purcey. Of course the Blue Jays have a much better position today as well as much better depth behind their top few pitching prospects, but there are no guarantees when you've got a Van Poppel, nevermind a Janssen or a Marcum.
As far as the potential next GM goes, I'd like to see Grady Fuson get a chance, he'd have the experience of building a superior farm system. I'm sure there are also a handful of Ivy Leaguers getting experience under DePodesta, Beane, Epstein and Towers that could quickly get the team to respectability if not the playoffs.
Again, I'm not saying there is going to be a Big Green Machine, just that in a few years there is a chance that Toronto will be looking up at them for a string of seasons.
I guess I didn't understand the D-Rays-bashing going on here on BB about a team that has embarrassed a good (admittedly not great) Yankees team all year
I think that says more about the Yankees than the Devil Rays. Even with that Tampa's only winning 35% of their games - a pace of 57 wins.
I agree that Hillenbrand did not have the time to get to third on the Wells run-down play and made a smart choice in staying put. Otherwise Hall would have simply ran Wells back and flipped to Cantu who could tag Wells and then Hillenbrand. It would have been very tough for Shea to make it to third safely.
The much more legitimate question is whether or not Wells made a mistake in running on the grounder itself. Wilner says he did, contact play or not. Sawkiw says he didn't. I'm not sure myself, but I'm inclinded to think it was a mistake given that the Jays had second and third with none out. Whether or not Wells was fairly confident he'd score the ball was hit hard straight to Cantu and there was no doubt to anyone in the ballpark that he was going home. A ball hit to third like that is any easy throw home for the thirdbaseman, and it's exactly the sort of ball you should ensure gets through the infield before running, if you are on third with none out. Runners on second and third with one out, which is what Wells hoped would result from his run-down, is still a fine situation to be in and gave the Jays two at-bats to get a single and tie the game.
The much more legitimate question is whether or not Wells made a mistake in running on the grounder itself. Wilner says he did, contact play or not. Sawkiw says he didn't. I'm not sure myself, but I'm inclinded to think it was a mistake given that the Jays had second and third with none out. Whether or not Wells was fairly confident he'd score the ball was hit hard straight to Cantu and there was no doubt to anyone in the ballpark that he was going home. A ball hit to third like that is any easy throw home for the thirdbaseman, and it's exactly the sort of ball you should ensure gets through the infield before running, if you are on third with none out. Runners on second and third with one out, which is what Wells hoped would result from his run-down, is still a fine situation to be in and gave the Jays two at-bats to get a single and tie the game.
I wasn't watching or listening at the time. Was Cantu playing in or back?
Here's the way I see it. There are 3 possible outcomes:
2nd and 3rd- one out, no runs in (Wells holds)
1st and 2nd- nobody out, 1 run in (Wells goes and makes it)
1st and 2nd- one out, no runs in (Wells goes and is thrown out).
There are variations on the outcomes depending on the odds of a ball being thrown away. The 2nd outcome is much, much better than the first if you need to score 2 or 3 runs. I'd guess that a success rate of 40% would be sufficient to make going a good play. From what I heard after the fact, Vernon's chance of success was much less than 40%.
It's a bit tricky to figure because Tango's run expectancy chart doesn't contain the right information. It provides information about the number of expected runs scored in each situation but not the frequency of each number (in this situation 4 runs twice is worth hugely more than 8 runs once).
Here's the way I see it. There are 3 possible outcomes:
2nd and 3rd- one out, no runs in (Wells holds)
1st and 2nd- nobody out, 1 run in (Wells goes and makes it)
1st and 2nd- one out, no runs in (Wells goes and is thrown out).
There are variations on the outcomes depending on the odds of a ball being thrown away. The 2nd outcome is much, much better than the first if you need to score 2 or 3 runs. I'd guess that a success rate of 40% would be sufficient to make going a good play. From what I heard after the fact, Vernon's chance of success was much less than 40%.
It's a bit tricky to figure because Tango's run expectancy chart doesn't contain the right information. It provides information about the number of expected runs scored in each situation but not the frequency of each number (in this situation 4 runs twice is worth hugely more than 8 runs once).
Mike G, he was drawn in a little but he wasn't even with the bag. The ball was hit sharply, and Vernon had no chance to do anything but hold. Unfortunately, he kind of indecisively headed for the plate.
My issue with C.B. Bucknor is more with his form than his substance, although Walker was getting just brutally squeezed. I would love to hear any counterarguments to the following three principles:
1. Umpires shouldn't start arguments.
2. Umpires shouldn't escalate arguments.
3. Umpires need not say anything at all after tossing a player or manager.
For those of you who missed it, during the Lugo at-bat Bucknor whipped off his mask, took five steps toward the Jays dugout, and screamed "THAT PITCH WAS INSIDE!!" at Gibbons after Gibbons heckled the call. After Huff's homer, Bucknor again whipped off his mask to jaw at Gibbons from a distance.
Bucknor tossed Gibbons, and after Gibbons came out to argue it was BUCKNOR who was the most angrily animated. Gibbons was actually comparatively calm. But Bucknor made sure that Gibbons received every choice word he had to offer.
It was just bush league, in my opinion. To the D-Rays' TV crew's credit, Joe Magrane and the play-by-play guy were not sympathetic to Bucknor. After the camera caught Bucknor smirking while Gibbons left the field, Magrane sarcastically quipped, "That's one proud umpire."
My issue with C.B. Bucknor is more with his form than his substance, although Walker was getting just brutally squeezed. I would love to hear any counterarguments to the following three principles:
1. Umpires shouldn't start arguments.
2. Umpires shouldn't escalate arguments.
3. Umpires need not say anything at all after tossing a player or manager.
For those of you who missed it, during the Lugo at-bat Bucknor whipped off his mask, took five steps toward the Jays dugout, and screamed "THAT PITCH WAS INSIDE!!" at Gibbons after Gibbons heckled the call. After Huff's homer, Bucknor again whipped off his mask to jaw at Gibbons from a distance.
Bucknor tossed Gibbons, and after Gibbons came out to argue it was BUCKNOR who was the most angrily animated. Gibbons was actually comparatively calm. But Bucknor made sure that Gibbons received every choice word he had to offer.
It was just bush league, in my opinion. To the D-Rays' TV crew's credit, Joe Magrane and the play-by-play guy were not sympathetic to Bucknor. After the camera caught Bucknor smirking while Gibbons left the field, Magrane sarcastically quipped, "That's one proud umpire."
Hmm, Vernon came home indecisively. That is not a good sign. You've got to know ahead of time what you are doing on that one. I remember in the mid-late 80s seeing Andres Gallarraga in spring training. He looked absolutely horrible at the plate, and was 1-46 or something like that. I read later that he had a newborn child at home.
Frank Catalanotto took 7-10 days off to grieve the loss of a loved one. What would be wrong with putting Vernon on the DL for paternity leave purposes? He's going to play 145-150 games this season anyways, and I really don't see the benefit of playing him when he's functioning far below peak. You move Rios to centre and play Gross in right while he's off. The leave allows Vernon to rejuvenate himself.
Frank Catalanotto took 7-10 days off to grieve the loss of a loved one. What would be wrong with putting Vernon on the DL for paternity leave purposes? He's going to play 145-150 games this season anyways, and I really don't see the benefit of playing him when he's functioning far below peak. You move Rios to centre and play Gross in right while he's off. The leave allows Vernon to rejuvenate himself.
What would be wrong with putting Vernon on the DL for paternity leave purposes?
As I recall, it was an emergency C-section as well. Doctors may talk about such things as if they're routine and common, ands I suppose they are pretty common. But I doubt if it feels very routine to Vernon and his wife. I don't know if the bereavement list applies to a situation like that, and 15 Days on the DL might be much more than he needs. And anyway, theat horse has left the stable.
I know conventional wisdom would argue that if Wells had tried to score from first on Hillenbrand's hit, that it could easily have wasted a runner who, stopping at third with none out is likely to score subsequently. Seems to me that Vernon was midway between second & third while Shea's knock was still skimming along the base of the wall, and forcing a play at the plate could easily have resulted in a run, and Hillenbrand would have been on second or third himself, anyway. The sharp grounder to third which followed (I know, I know, with the situation changed, the pitcher and the batter interact differently, but just for instance...) which left runners at first and second would not have set up the double play and the wasted inning.