Based on team's 2005 record (and in the event of a tie their 2004 record) here is the draft order for the 2006 draft:
2006 Draft Order 1. Royals (56-106) 11. D'backs (77-85) 21. Phillies (88-74) 2. Rockies (67-95) 12. Rangers (79-83) 22. Athletics (88-74) 3. Devil Rays (67-95) 13. Cubs (79-83) 23. Astros (89-73) 4. Pirates (67-95) 14. Blue Jays (80-82) 24. Braves (90-72) 5. Mariners (69-93) 15. Nationals (81-81) 25. Indians (93-69) 6. Tigers (71-91) 16. Brewers (81-81) 26. Angels (95-67) 7. Dodgers (71-91) 17. Padres (82-80) 27. Red Sox (95-67) 8. Reds (73-89) 18. Mets (83-79) 28. Yankees (95-67) 9. Orioles (74-88) 19. Marlins (83-79) 29. White Sox (99-63) 10. Giants (75-87) 20. Twins (83-79) 30. Cardinals (100-62)The draft order will almost certainly change as teams will lose draft pick(s) for signing particular free agents. However, teams in the top 15 cannot lose their first round pick.
The Jays pick 14th in the draft. If they had won one more game they would have finished 81-81, tied with Washington and Milwaukee, and because they had a better 2004 record than those two teams they would have picked 16th. In that case if the Jays were to sign a top free agent they would have lost their first pick. Now, because they're in the top 15, if they sign a free agent it will cost the team a 2nd round pick instead of a 1st round pick.
See, a winning record isn't all it's cracked up to be if you're not in the playoffs. I think Batista knew this and blew a couple games in September for the best long term interest of the organization.
According to Baseball America here are the top 10 prospects for the 2006 draft:
1. Andrew Miller, LHP, North Carolina 2. Drew Stubbs, OF, Texas 3. Max Scherzer, RHP, Missouri 4. Jordan Walden, RHP, Mansfield HS, Arlington, Texas 5. Daniel Bard, RHP, North Carolina 6. Matt Latos, RHP, Coconut Creek (Fla.) HS 7. Wes Hodges, 3B, Georgia Tech 8. Ian Kennedy, RHP, USC 9. Cody Johnson, OF, Mosley HS, Lynnhaven, Fla. 10. Evan Longoria, SS, Long Beach State
Here's a look at the stats of the college players above, as well as other top college players in 2005 that will be draft eligible in 2006.
Pitchers
Ian Kennedy, RHP, USC Year Innings ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 2005 117.0 2.54 12.2 2.9 0.5 2004 92.2 2.91 11.7 3.0 0.4 Andrew Miller, LHP, North Carolina Year Innings ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 2005 96.2 2.98 9.7 4.9 0.4 2004 89.0 2.93 8.9 4.9 0.5 Max Scherzer, RHP, Missouri Year Innings ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 2005 106.1 1.86 11.1 3.5 0.3 Dallas Buck, RHP, Oregon State Year Innings ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 2005 129.0 2.09 8.2 3.6 0.2 2004 69.1 5.06 7.4 3.9 0.7 Daniel Bard, RHP, North Carolina Year Innings ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 2005 89.2 4.22 7.8 4.3 0.8 2004 95.0 3.88 6.4 2.9 0.7
Kennedy caught my eye in 2004 and when I looked him up I couldn't believe he was just a freshman. He pitched well on Team USA that summer on a team that included 2005 top draftees Romero, Pelfrey, and Hochevar. He and Max Scherzer both pitched well for Team USA this summer. I'm not certain why Kennedy isn't at the top of the list, but I suspect it's because he's just 6'0" so he doesn't have the classic 'Ace' build.
Miller, Buck and Bard all pitched in the Cape League this summer, each posting a K rate above 10 per 9 innings.
Miller is at the top of BA's list and when I see his profile I can't help but think of David Purcey.
David Purcey, LHP, Oklahoma Year Inn ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 2004 118.2 3.11 9.9 4.1 0.4 2003 72.2 5.20 8.4 5.1 0.5 2002 75.1 3.35 10.1 5.3 0.4
Both Miller and Purcey are big, power LH pitchers, strike out around 9 per 9 innings, yet walk 4-5 batters per 9 innings.
Hitters
The hitters in this year's class aren't as heralded as the pitchers, but there are still some quality players out there.
Shane Robinson, OF, Florida State Year ABs Ave OBP SLG BB K 2005 286 0.427 0.532 0.605 57 28 2004 275 0.280 0.358 0.371 23 35 Matt Laporta, 1B, Florida Year ABs Ave OBP SLG BB K 2005 265 0.328 0.438 0.698 44 65 2004 130 0.285 0.371 0.646 13 39 Jim Negrych, 2b, Pittsburgh Year ABs Ave OBP SLG BB K 2005 186 0.349 0.471 0.694 44 37 2004 201 0.378 0.464 0.592 33 36 Aaron Bates, 1B, North Carolina State Year ABs Ave OBP SLG BB K 2005 214 0.428 0.523 0.678 37 27 2003 145 0.297 0.407 0.393 13 23 (at San Jose St) Mike Ambort, C, Lamar Year ABs Ave OBP SLG BB K 2005 217 0.336 0.414 0.654 21 24 2004 200 0.270 0.338 0.465 14 30 Chris Campbell, 2B, Coll. of Charleston Year ABs Ave OBP SLG BB K 2005 269 0.379 0.421 0.625 22 27 2004 217 0.332 0.372 0.530 11 31 Wes Hodges, 3b, Georgia Tech Year ABs Ave OBP SLG BB K 2005 267 0.397 0.466 0.566 28 35 2004 184 0.304 0.387 0.467 19 25 Adam Davis, 2B, Florida Year ABs Ave OBP SLG BB K 2005 294 0.306 0.395 0.486 40 46 2004 253 0.320 0.389 0.458 22 35 Evan Longoria, ss, Long Beach State U. Year ABs Ave OBP SLG BB K 2005 228 0.320 0.368 0.421 14 41 Drew Stubbs, of, U. of Texas Year ABs Ave OBP SLG BB K 2005 283 0.311 0.384 0.527 32 71 2004 266 0.301 0.372 0.474 28 75
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In addition to the stats above Shane Robinson also was 49 for 56 in steal attempts. Not bad. He looks like the classic leadoff hitter, and a better version of Jacoby Ellsbury, taken 23rd this past draft by the Red Sox.
Year ABs Ave OBP SLG BB K 2005 244 0.406 0.495 0.582 36 21 - Ellsbury 2005 286 0.427 0.532 0.605 57 28 - Robinson
Matt Laporta shows the most power, with an ISO Slg% of .370. And given that the SEC is full of pitcher's parks I believe that SEC hitters are generally underrated. (Given the number of SEC players the Jays took this year perhaps they feel the same way.) Florida does play in a slightly favorable hitting park, but their weighted schedule is neutral. Laporta's 26 HRs last season led the NCAA.
Getting back to comparisons, Jim Negrych reminds me of Jed Lowrie of Stanford, and now in the Sox system after being drafted in the sandwich round this past year. Both players are 2B with great college numbers who (perhaps rightfully) aren't thought of as highly by scouts as the players that will go in round 1.
Lowrie, 2B, Stanford Year ABs Ave OBP SLG BB K 2005 224 0.317 0.416 0.594 41 41 2004 233 0.399 0.505 0.734 50 40 2003 212 0.292 0.349 0.349 19 25 Negrych Year ABs Ave OBP SLG BB K 2005 186 0.349 0.471 0.694 44 37 2004 201 0.378 0.464 0.592 33 36
Evan Longoria gained some attention this summer after a strong Cape League, leading the league in HRs. However, despite the similarity in names he is not the same person as Eva Longoria. And yes, I only mentioned this so I could link to pictures of Eva Longoria.
Back for more fun in the spring.
