Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Last week, I went to at least some of two games: Monday, Halladay's great game vs Suppan, and Wednesday, Aaargh, I mean Lilly, vs Suppan. Of course, the Jays won both of those games. My co-worker Rob went to Tuesday's game with friends, and the Jays promptly lost.

This week is turning out to be the Bizzaro version of last week; the games I'm showing up to (Tuesday's) were lost, and the games Rob has gone to (last night's) are won. I think I'm going to today's Halladay-Ponson match-up, and I think I'll invite Rob; if all goes as expected, it'll be 0-0 in the 14th before God realizes what's going on and obliterates the Earth with a comet.



Aaron Hill went 0-2 last night, with a walk and a HBP. Through 107 AB, Aaron has a .374/.442/.533 line, with 11 walks and 7 strikeouts. He's actually declined somewhat from his initial 41 AB in May, in which he achieved .415/.455/.585; in June, he's declined to .359/.431/.516. Oh, you're out of filet mignon? I guess I'll just have prime rib then.

Of course, the question on everybody's mind is "Is Aaron Hill for real?" Alternately, you might be wondering, "Just how predictive is the first 100 AB, anyways?" I can't really answer either question, but I can give a little bit more insight into the relevance of early stats.

To decide who to look at, I've looked at the top 11 players, in Runs Created (as listed at The Hardball Times), for both leagues. Current stats are as of June 21, 2005.

  1. Player		Team	RC	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	GPA
    Lee, Derrek	CHN	82	305	20	.390	.475	.714	.392
    
    Derrek was called up a couple of times by San Diego in 1997, but had limited at-bats and was often used as a late-inning substitution, compiling 4 or more at-bats in a game only 5 times. His first full-time season was the next year for the Marlins.
    Player		AB	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
    Lee, Derrek	54	1	9	24	.259	.365	.370

  2. Player		Team	RC	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	GPA
    Pujols, Albert	STL	68	315	18	.333	.420	.597	.338
    I think just about everybody knows how Albert's first full season went. He started 2001 with St. Louis, and managed a line of .329/.409/.610 in 161 games. It might surprise you that he actually started hotter than he ended up over the full season:
    Player		AB	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
    Pujols, Albert	101	8	8	18	.366	.429	.703

  3. Player		Team	RC	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	GPA
    Abreu, Bobby	PHI	66	316	16	.323	.446	.568	.343
    Bobby had only 22 AB in his first appearance in the majors, so we'll instead look at his next 188 which happened the next year. Here's how it went down:
    Player		AB	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
    Abreu, Bobby	188	3	21	48	.250	.329	.372

  4. Player		Team	RC	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	GPA
    Sheffield, Gary	NYA	64	298	12	.313	.420	.526	.321
    Gary broke in in 1988 with Milwaukee, of all places. Here's his first 80 AB:
    Player		AB	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
    Sheffield, Gary	80	4	7	7	.237	.295	.400

  5. Player		Team	RC	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	GPA
    Rodriguez, Alex	NYA	62	311	20	.323	.428	.605	.344
    Alex' first two seasons didn't total too many games, so they're both presented here:
    Player		AB	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
    Rodriguez, Alex	54	0	3	20	.204	.241	.204
    Rodriguez, Alex	142	5	6	42	.232	.264	.408
    Of course, since then, there's been no looking back.

  6. Player		Team	RC	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	GPA
    Roberts, Brian	BAL	60	282	11	.355	.434	.592	.343
    Brian's first four seasons are all basically the same - .260/.320/.360. This breakout was really unforeseeable.
    Player		AB	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
    Roberts, Brian	102	0	3	11	.265	.283	.353

  7. Player		Team	RC	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	GPA
    Teixeira, Mark	TEX	57	315	20	.296	.365	.581	.310
    Mark's success, on the other hand, was not unforeseeable.
    Player		AB	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
    Teixiera, Mark	103	3	11	21	.233	.322	.408

  8. Player		Team	RC	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	GPA
    Johnson, Nick	WAS	56	297	8	.321	.444	.514	.329
    Nick the Stick was anything but in his first call-up with the Yankees.
    Player		AB	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
    Johnson, Nick	67	2	7	15	.194	.308	.313

  9. Player		Team	RC	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	GPA
    Ortiz, David	BOS	56	307	18	.303	.386	.584	.320
    The Cookie Monster, on the other hand...
    Player		AB	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
    Ortiz, David	49	1	2	19	.327	.353	.449
    Ortiz, David	73	4	8	19	.315	.398	.598

  10. Player		Team	RC	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	GPA
    Tejada, Miguel	BAL	56	305	19	.315	.370	.620	.321
    Miguel didn't look like an MVP in his first call-up.
    Player		AB	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
    Tejada, Miguel	99	2	2	22	.202	.240	.333

  11. Player		Team	RC	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	GPA
    Delgado, Carlos	FLA	55	286	14	.325	.423	.584	.336
    Our greatest and best old friend showed hints of what would come:
    Player		AB	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
    Delgado, Carlos 130	9	25	46	.215	.352	.438

So what does all this tell us? Well, let's look at Aaron's first 107 at-bats:
Player		AB	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
Hill, Aaron	107	1	11	7	.374	.442	.533
His strikeout rate compares favourably with just about everyone on the list. His walk rate isn't up there, though, and he's shown only hints of the power the above (mostly) power hitters display. What I really wanted, to tell you the truth, was to see a listing of "the top 10 starts of all time," and look at where those players ended up. I've never found such a list, though.

If this listing gives hope to anybody, it should give hope to Russ Adams: you need not have a hot start to be a great player. Tejada couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag in his first 100 AB, and look at him now. Not listed, but something I also saw, was that the 2nd year slump wasn't uncommon, even among these rare talents. (Not Pujols, but hey, Pujols is scary.)

For now, I'm going to be content watching Hill tear it up for the next few months. If it turns out to be the next few years — or even decades — all the better. I have all the faith in the world in him.

Jays 3, Orioles 2: A Balk in the Park | 70 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Jim - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 08:20 AM EDT (#120366) #
'So what does all this tell us?'


Absolutely nothing.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#120369) #
Bill James did a study similar to this on Best September Cups of Coffee in the original Historical Baseball Abstract. Actually, I think it was under the heading "Walt Bond", who had one of the best cups of coffee but went on to have a very limited career (despite having considerable talent) and died very young of leukemia. Anyways, most of the players were good ones, with the best being Lou Gehrig.
Wildrose - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#120374) #
Good stuff Joe, I was actually somewhat surprised by the great variance your list showed.

Obviously Hill is going to go through some rough stretches, but you can still appreciate him from a subjective viewpoint....his quickness to the ball(swing), good pitch recognition skills, the ability to hit the ball hard to all fields. My only concern is that, as Darren Fletcher points out, is that he really doesn't "load up" on his swing. I'm not sure he'll ever hit for great power with this approach, but hey you can't have everything.

Named For Hank - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#120376) #
I don't know what it means to his future development or potential, but his swing is really gorgeous to watch -- so precise and confident-looking.
Christopher - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#120377) #
The other night Rance compared Hill's swing to Molitor's.

That'd be okay.
Lefty - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#120378) #
Its being reported that the Red Sox have sent scouts to look at Ted Lilly.
Named For Hank - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#120379) #
Speaking of Rance, I just wanted to jump on his bandwagon -- he's been the strongest of the rotating analysts so far, and really a lot of fun. I don't mind the rotation, but I'd like to see more of Rance in it.

I was really amused by Darrin Fletcher, but I don't think I'd want him to be the every day analyst. That would be too much like having me write the game report every day. But a rotation with a lot of Rance, some Tabby, some Candy and an occasional hyped-in-advance special guest shot with Fletcher could end up being really good and keep the broadcasts from becoming stagnant.
Named For Hank - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#120380) #
Its being reported that the Red Sox have sent scouts to look at Ted Lilly.

Okay, someone give me some speculation, here: what would the Red Sox trade for Lilly that the Jays could use? What would that do to the rotation -- keep Walker in it and call Bush back up? And would the Red Sox really play with fire by giving a division rival something to fill in a hole on their team in such a tight race?

Not discounting it, just trying to figure out the logistics.

Hey, wait, does Johnny O want to retire as a Jay? Nah, if he did he could have approached 'em in the offseason, right?

The Bone - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#120381) #
Lefty, J.P. said on Sportscentre last night that there is no way he is trading Lilly - same type of thing he said about Shea last week

On the other hand, he has said prospects are tradeable this summer - so I'm guessing we could be buyers no matter what our record is



The Bone - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#120383) #
On the topic of the Red Sox, I have a hypothetical question - with the Jays need for pop and this newly unlocked vault, if Theo Epstein put Manny Ramirez on waivers again (which I know he wouldn't, given how 2004 went) would you scoop him up if you were in J.P.'s shoes?

PeterG - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#120384) #
I imagine JP would trade Lilly to Boston if he could get Shoppach. With 5 personal GM assistants now tracking the Jays, it is obvious some members of the big team are beibg shopped, likely including Lilly. No amount of denial from JP can possibly hold up. These busy GM assistants are not attending Jays games just to pass the time. For the record the 5 teams involved are: Red Sox, White Sox, Twins,Braves and Indians.
Jordan - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#120385) #
I wouldn't be particularly surprised to see Lilly dealt, though the starting rotation is already a little thin. Despite his public pronouncements, which he has to make, I think JP wouldn't be averse at all.

To Boston? If I were JP, I'd ask for Kelly Shoppach. And since I wouldn't get him, that would probably be the end of that.
Named For Hank - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#120386) #
Where's the info about the assistants coming from?

Don't teams pre-scout the teams they're going to face?
Mike Green - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#120388) #
Shoppach is of some interest.

Manny's 33, and his salary is well over $20 million per year. He's definitely large budget team material.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#120389) #
Jordan, I didn't see your post. I could see the Sox doing Lilly for Shoppach straight up. Shoppach's 25 and is having a big year in the IL, but his career minor league record is not really that great.
Ducey - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#120391) #
Lilly is a free agent after this season right?

I expect JP is thinking he would offer Ted arbitration this offseason. If he does and Ted walks (and if he is a type A free agent- I assume he would be) the Jays could expect a first round or supplemental frist round pick.

If he doesn't walk, you can hold his crappy April and May against him and keep his salary at a reasonable level.

As he is likely the Jays second best pitcher, and because the Jays are starting to see themselves as contenders, I don't think that Jays would be real anxious to get rid of him. They would have to turn around a sign a starter of the same quality in the offseason. If they do trade him, I think the Jays need to get something much better than they would get in the first round of the draft next year.
Lefty - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#120392) #
Yes, when the Hillenbrand to Boston rumours started about 10 days ago I was thinking Shoppach too. Shoppach is blocked by a longterm Varitek contract and Mirabelli is Wakefields guy. Wakefield will likely pitch for at least three more years.

So Shoppach has to be available. With Quiroz off the radar screen now, I hope he is someone being targeted.

What if Toronto sent both Hillenbrand and Lilly to the Sox? Each of whom the Sox apparently covet. What could the Jays reasonably expect in return? The Sox are well poised to make another serious run at the championship again. They should certainly be motivated.
Named For Hank - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#120393) #
Despite his public pronouncements, which he has to make, I think JP wouldn't be averse at all.

I can recall at least one instance where "we're not trading that guy" very quickly dissolved into a trade.

How is Bush doing in AAA? I can't see trading away Lilly, with the team on the edge of contending, without a serious plan to replace him.

Last time I heard J.P. give his list of untouchable guys it was Hill, Rios and Halladay, end of list. I could be remembering that wrong -- Thomas can either back me up or make me look foolish, because that was at the Alan Schwarz talk on the weekend.

Named For Hank - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#120395) #
So the coaches for the All-Star Game have been named -- what more does Frank Robinson have to do to prove he deserves to be on the All-Star team this year? Maybe if he actually punched out Scioscia?
binnister - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#120396) #
I agree with NFH.

Why trade these guys, especially given the post-season-Lilly-arb scenario?

Every contending team needs depth, and that's exactly what the Jay's have now.

Honestly, the ONLY way I see J.P. trading from one of the so-called "Log Jam" positions is if he fills the teams BIGGEST current need (i.e Catcher), or prehaps fills one of his 'wants' (Top notch #2 Pitcher).
georgekeip - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#120397) #
As far as trade speculation goes.....what about a possible trade with Arizona?

They are only 4.5 games out in their division and are probably in buyer mode right now. From what I can tell they could really use some pitching (especially in their bullpen) so maybe Lilly and the SS Loogy or Batista (maybe even Walker) and try to get back one of their outfielders in the minors (Jackson or Quentin). That would provide the Jays a power bat that they need and significantly strengthen Arizona for a run at the playoffs. I also think that having a new GM might make Arizona a bit more inclined to go for it now. Maybe there is another prospect thrown in one way or the other to make it all work...

Given that the strength of Jays minor leagues is definitely pitching I would think that dealing pitching from the major league team for minor league power (that is almost ready to contribute in the majors) would really help in the next few years when the Jays will truly be contenders.

One other trade that I expect is for Hudson to be dealt either this year or in the off season. His defense is spectacular but I don't think he will ever get significantly better offensively so going with Hill / Adams in the middle infield would be a big upgrade offensively and in the long run would offset whatever is lost defensively. Also, I think Hudson's value will be at it's peak (once he breaks out of his current slump) and it may be the best time to trade him.
grum - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#120399) #
Speaking of Hill, in my fantasy league (Scoresheet, not Roto) I'm looking to acquire him from someone who has an abundance of 3B/SS (Glaus, Uribe, Guillen, Giarratano, J.Lopez), but is lacking pitching. I have pitching (Lowe, Colon, Millwood, Wakefield, Washburn, Chen, Kazmir) but my 3B/SS positions are WEAK (Cuddyer/Boone at 3B & Adams/J.Hernandez at SS).

Would an offer of Millwood or Washburn or Chen be reasonable for Hill? Would I be overpaying for him, or would I have to go higher? Is he considered a good prospect to have in the next couple of years?
Pistol - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#120403) #
Lilly is a free agent after this season right?

No. He'll be entering his final arbitration year.

Please link, or provide sources, for any news/rumors. So instead of writing 'the Red Sox are interested in Lilly' write who is saying it, for example, 'According to the Wilner on the Fan the Sox are interested in Lilly'.

Dave Till - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#120404) #
Its being reported that the Red Sox have sent scouts to look at Ted Lilly.

Scouts, plural? Do they send a scout, and then another scout to check up on the first scout in case the first scout starts becoming delusional? ("That Huckaby is a real gamer, and I think that he can help our ballclub.") Do they travel in pairs to provide a pinochle partner to while away the empty hours between games?

(I'm not making fun of you, Lefty - I assume that you are accurately reporting what you heard. My tiny brain is just fascinated by the idea of multiple scouts from one team.)

Dave Till - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#120405) #
More seriously: I don't think the Jays are going to trade somebody like Lilly unless they can improve their current lineup by doing so. It's my impression that the Jays are no longer in a pure rebuilding mode.
georgekeip - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#120406) #
I think trading Lilly for Conor Jackson would improve their lineup immediately.
Jackson line in AAA right now is .383 / .470 /.589 with 44 BB's, 6 HR's and only 18 strikeouts.
Put him in at DH (move hillenbrand to 1st) and I think you improve your offense immediately. Hinske is a lost cause and I don't think waiting around for him to improve is helping the team at all.
Pistol - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#120408) #
and try to get back one of their outfielders in the minors (Jackson or Quentin)

I can't imagine any scenario where that would happen. It's not like Lilly and Batista are Clemens and Rivera. If Carlos Beltran gets a few B prospects last year I can't see Arizona trading their A prospects.

Batista is interesting though. For the past few years the Jays have needed a closer, and now they apparently have one. Batista probably has trade value, but if you do trade him you're opening up a pretty big hole in the bullpen. I don't see anyone currently on the team, or in the organization, filling the hole, and based on this offseason you're not going to sign a closer for what Batista is costing you now ($4.75 next year - quite an albatross, eh?). So given that, why should the Jays even consider trading Batista.

georgekeip - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#120413) #
If Carlos Beltran gets a few B prospects last year I can't see Arizona trading their A prospects.

Tampa Bay got Kazmir for a pitcher that isn't as good as Lilly last year so I don't think it is out of the question that Arizona may deal one of their A prospects. Keep in mind Beltran was a free agent that was going to make a lot of money in the offseason so trading for him was a one year rental. Lilly comes with an extra year at a moderate price for a quality starting pitcher.
Named For Hank - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#120426) #
The Lilly - Red Sox rumor seems to have come from the Boston Herald by way of the Toronto Sun:
The Toronto Sun reported yesterday that the Red Sox are one of several teams scouting Toronto Blue Jays lefty Ted Lilly for a possible trade.

The rest of the article is here, but that single line is the only mention of the rumor. Anyone got a reference from the Sun?

Named For Hank - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#120429) #
Found it:

"What does it say about the Jays that they are thinking about moving their second best -- okay, maybe that's Gustavo Chacin -- starter?" asks Bob Elliot. "It says wait until next season."

Without providing direct quotes, Elliot implies that the four executives were there to see Lilly. He says:

The gallery at Rogers Centre, eight rows behind home plate, was impressed with the elevation of Lilly's pitches, his mechanics, his velocity (94 m.p.h) and his results Monday as he worked seven innings in an 11-2 win over the Baltimore Orioles.

Other than this, Elliot provides nothing. Well, I was impressed with Lilly that night, too, but I'm not going to trade anyone for him. Hell, I was at the game in good seats! But that still doesn't mean I'm in negotiations to trade anything for him.

All in all, it's an article that could have some truth in it that appears to be based on coincidence and guesswork.

Named For Hank - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#120430) #
Somehow with the article open in front of me I've managed to mis-spell Bob Elliott's name. Sloppy of me. Apologies to him for that.
Gitz - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#120431) #
Tampa Bay got Kazmir for a pitcher that isn't as good as Lilly last year so I don't think it is out of the question that Arizona may deal one of their A prospects.

The trade is a stupid one for the Mets, no doubt, and a surprisingly good one for Tampa Bay. But the difference is that Kazmir is a pitcher. Teams are far more likely to trade pitching prospects because of their unpredictability than they are to trade Grade A hitters, who are much easier to forecast.

This is somewhat off topic, but one of the more brilliant trades in recent years was the fleecing the Indians pulled on the Expos. Bartolo Colon is a terrific pitcher, but to give up Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, and Bradon Phillips (who, ironically, is the worst player to come over) is perhaps a bit much. For all his genius, Billy Beane couldn't get nearly as much in return for Tim Hudson, who is arguably the better pitcher -- without question, he's got a bigger reputation -- and who should have commanded more. Yet Mark Shapiro is never mentioned in the same breath as Beane, by both the mainstream media and by the blogging community. Hopefully Shapiro will get his due, because the Indians have made some sharp moves in recent years.

VBF - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#120433) #
Eck! I dislike it when writers imply something, or put words in J.P.'s mouth. J.P. hasn't mentioned thinking about dealing Lilly to the point where he's even said he wasn't. Elliott!
Gitz - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#120436) #
To further the point about Lilly. It would seem many teams don't value him as much as others, such as Oakland and Toronto, would. Many organisations would -- in my opinion, rightly -- be leery to give up Grade A talent to acquire someone with Ted's questionable ancillary accoutrements. Personally, I think the Jays should leverage him for what he's worth. This is why he's still in the rotation, because you can't trade a starting pitcher who isn't starting. He's gone by July, and if the return is a Grade B prospect or two, kudos to J.P.
Magpie - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#120438) #
How is Bush doing in AAA?

Never a dull moment. He's had 4 starts. The hitters roughed him up in the first one, and Esix Snead roughed him up in another. He's 1-0, 4.57. 16 K and 7 BB in 21.2 IP.

Ron - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#120443) #
I always get a good chuckle out of trade speculation from fans.

The deals are usually so lopsided for one side.

People are dreaming if they think players like Lilly, SS, and Batista are going to bring top prospects from another organization.

On the flip side I could picture some Pirates fan proposing a wacky trade like Kip Wells for Aaron Hill, David Purcey, and Bradon League.
rtcaino - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#120445) #
””One other trade that I expect is for Hudson to be dealt either this year or in the off season. His defense is spectacular but I don't think he will ever get significantly better offensively so going with Hill / Adams in the middle infield would be a big upgrade offensively and in the long run would offset whatever is lost defensively. Also, I think Hudson's value will be at it's peak (once he breaks out of his current slump) and it may be the best time to trade him.””

I think his peak value would be at the end of the season with his average up at his career levels and a gold glove on his mantle. The challenge in such a scenario is finding playing time for everyone in the infield for the rest of the season.

Question; between Hill and Adams, who would you prefer to play short, who would you prefer to play second, and why?

My suspicion is that Hill should play short to better utilize his arm. And Adams should play second, in the hope that having a shorter throw to first would cut down on his errors.

“”Please link, or provide sources, for any news/rumors. So instead of writing 'the Red Sox are interested in Lilly' write who is saying it, for example, 'According to the Wilner on the Fan the Sox are interested in Lilly'.””

Mike Ganter and Bob Elliott provide a list of five teams who have scouted Jay games in recent days in today’s Jays Watch. The list includes the Red Sox, Braves, White Sox, Twins, and Indians.
Gitz - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#120447) #
On the flip side I could picture some Pirates fan proposing a wacky trade like Kip Wells for Aaron Hill, David Purcey, and Bradon League.

With all due respect, I doubt many fans outside of Toronto have heard of Hill, Purcey, and League. But it's hard not to root for a guy named Kip. I mean, the Kipster! A name can say a thousand pictures. For instance, would Bip Roberts have been half as popular with a name like, say, Clint?

Thomas - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#120450) #
Gitz, well I could easily propose a trade of Lilly for Zach Duke, Ryan Doumit and Ian Snell without looking, so I don't see why a diehard Pirates fan couldn't propose such a ridiuclous trade with ease. Ron's point is valid.

If you are holding JP to a Quentin-for-Lilly standard you'll never be satisfied with any return on a midseason trade. Try ignoring the one fleecing of the Mets and pay attention to the standard return.
Thomas - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#120451) #
NFH, advance scouts do the advance scouting, not assistant GMs, unless I'm mistaken. Especially at midseason.

PeterG, where did you get that list from?
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#120452) #
Try ignoring the one fleecing of the Mets and pay attention to the standard return.

Heh. I was waiting for someone to suggest the Jays acquire Albert Pujols for $24 worth of beads. :)

mendocino - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#120453) #
http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2005/06/23/1101073-sun.html

SPECIAL ASSISTANT'S ROW

Neal Huntington, special assistant to Cleveland Indians general manager Mark Shapiro, was at Rogers Centre scouting last night's game. That brings the total of special assistants in the house to five as he joins the top sets of eyes from the Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins.

Gitz - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#120454) #
Fair enough, Thomas. I was speaking of the "average" Pirates fan, not the "knowledgable" ones.

That said, I very much doubt the return on Lilly will amount to anything, as is the nature of these salary purges. Who did the M's get for Randy Johnson? John Halama, Carlos Guillen, and ... I forget the other one. J.P. ought to be thrilled with that. And he won't get it, sorry.

SK in NJ - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#120455) #
I'm pretty confident that the Jays will head into August with Lilly, Batista, Hillenbrand, and Hudson still on the team. I see no reason to trade Lilly unless the Jays get a premium young player, as he's under contract for one more season (arbitration) and fairly difficult to replace from within. Same with Batista, who is turning out to be the closer the team always looked for under Ricciardi's watch, and presents cost certainty for one more season. Hudson simply isn't hitting right now, and I don't think Orlando's defense alone is enough to fetch anything significant. Wait until the off-season.

I would look to trade Hillenbrand, but I guess JP has fallen for him. Not surprising given his "dirtbag" fetish.

Off the wall prediction: JP trades Hinske and a prospect for Mike Sweeney, either before the deadline or in the off-season. Sweeney makes $12.5 million if he's traded (IIRC), but in this scenario, the team would only be paying the difference between Sweeney and Hinske (about $8M in '06 and $7M in '07). Not saying it's something I necessarily want, but I could see JP doing it.
Gitz - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#120456) #
A special assistant to the GM! What a kick-ass job. I'm a mere "assistant" to my boss. She doesn't think I'm very special. Sniff.

Question: What's the difference between that and, say, what Keith Law does for the Jays?

mendocino - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#120458) #
Keith Law & Chris Buckley are JP's special assistants
Gitz - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#120459) #
Incidentally, I don't expect or want Albert Pujols for $24 worth of beads. I don't go in for those talk-show trades, either. In fact, I thought I had been saying the exact opposite! If someone like Randy Johnson or Tim Hudson can fetch only marginal front-line talent, then someone like Lilly should only fetch marginal marginal-line talent -- and that J.P. should be thrilled to get that.

But wow! It sure would be nice to get Pujols for those beads ...

Ducey - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#120460) #
"That said, I very much doubt the return on Lilly will amount to anything, as is the nature of these salary purges."

Gitz I know you are president of the "He Man Lilly Haters Club" but are you saying Lilly will be traded due to his salary? If so I would have to disagree. He is making $3.1 million this year. At arbitration, taking into account his bad April/ May he might get $5 million? This doesn't seem too bad - especially with the new budget. Replacing him is going to cost you at least as much.

JP can afford (literally) to wait for a good deal to come down or he doesn't have to trade him.
Paul D - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#120462) #
...is as about as useful advice as saying "Hey, you, Strawberry.. hit a homerun!"

It worked for Chris Gomez

Gitz - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#120463) #
Oh, Moffat, Moffatt, Moffatt. Wasn't it you in my Seattle Mariners preview who suggested that my references to coffee and Q-bert (a Quixotic combination!) that I was talking about you?

In truth, I simply wanted to say that I really would like, say, a team like, say, the A's to get, say, a player like, say, Pujols for $24! Problem is, would he solve their offensive problems? Hurumph.

Joe - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#120464) #
Saying "trade 3 B prospects for a low-salaried superstar" is as about as useful advice as saying "Hey, you, Strawberry.. hit a homerun!"

But the latter actually worked!

Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#120465) #
Oh, Moffat, Moffatt, Moffatt. Wasn't it you in my Seattle Mariners preview who suggested that my references to coffee and Q-bert (a Quixotic combination!) that I was talking about you?

But we're talking about *you* now, Mr. Changing the Subject Guy.

Speaking of changing the subject, I would really like a pony or possibly a unicorn.

georgekeip - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#120466) #
Teams are far more likely to trade pitching prospects because of their unpredictability than they are to trade Grade A hitters, who are much easier to forecast.

Interesting point. I never really considered that. What about the "You can never have too much pitching" theory that everyone seems to apply to the draft? Why not draft more position players if they are more predictable? I read a lot of people saying that it is much easier to trade pitching prospects to get hitting than hitting prospects to get pitching?

I always get a good chuckle out of trade speculation from fans. The deals are usually so lopsided for one side.

Maybe I am delusional but I don't see how a potential number 2 starter (and yes Lilly has struggled early but he is finding the form that made him an all-star last year again and I assume that the team trading for him is considering him as a #2 guy) that is very cheap for a number 2 starter for the next 2 years and some relatively cheap bullpen upgrades is not worth an A prospect?
All of the comparisons are for pitchers and hitters that were in the final year of their contract. If another GM beleives Lilly is #2 starter quality, and yes this may be delusional but I think he is pretty close to that, and he is signed for 2 years is that not much more valuable than 2 months of a better player?
georgekeip - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#120467) #
Question; between Hill and Adams, who would you prefer to play short, who would you prefer to play second, and why?

Ideally for me it would be Hill because of his arm strength. If Hill has the range I would give him every chance at the job. If not I think Butterfield can help Adams become at least an average shortstop....I have a lot of faith in him...
Named For Hank - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#120471) #
Speaking of changing the subject, I would really like a pony or possibly a unicorn.

Dammit, I already gave you your unicorn!

Pistol - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#120472) #
If you are holding JP to a Quentin-for-Lilly standard you'll never be satisfied with any return on a midseason trade. Try ignoring the one fleecing of the Mets and pay attention to the standard return.

And of course that GM is no longer around either

Magpie - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#120474) #
Today's Howler, from "Adams seeks spot" by Gantner and Elliott.

Russ Adams is looking for a home in the Blue Jays batting order. For most of this year, it has been at the bottom of the lineup. Last night, he was flipped to the top for the first time in the majors.

First time in the majors? First time this season. Fully two thirds (49 of 72) of his AB last September came while he was hitting #1 in the order.

Magpie - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#120475) #
I don't see how a potential number 2 starter...

Sure, but I don't think there's any way Lilly is a number 2 starter on a legitimate contender. On a .500 team, sure. He's a .500 pitcher. When he was on a real contender, he was a 4th starter.

PeterG - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#120481) #
Thomas,

the list of assistant Gm's watching the Jays was in the Toronto Sun. I'm sure this is factual and would not have been printed otherwise. As to who they are watching, that seems pure speculation but I would think that it is likely Lilly that is immediately available. I don't think its a stretch that JP could get Shoppach out of the Red Sox but the suggested trades for top Arizona prospects is pure fiction.

As for the suggestion that Mike Sweeney might be acquired, I heard JP say on his Wednesday night show 3 weeks ago that he was not interested in Sweeney. "He's not a good fit for us."
NDG - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#120485) #
Question; between Hill and Adams, who would you prefer to play short, who would you prefer to play second, and why?

Ideally for me it would be Hill because of his arm strength.

I've seen this argument over and over and really don't understand it. Exactly what good is better arm strength without range (since it's usually at the extent of one's range where you need the arm strength)? So when Adams gets to balls that Hill can't get to, he can't get the out cause he doesn't have Hill's arm? No one else sees the flaw in this statement? BTW I've constantly heard about the thowing difference in the two, but really, I don't see it. Hill's definately got a better arm, but it's nothing special, and Adam's isn't terrible. I think people really overemphasize the difference.

I'm only talking arm strength here. Maybe Hill has better than average range too, haven't seen him play enough SS to tell. But saying he should play short because of his arm in non-sensible to me.

SimonB - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#120486) #
*Sure, but I don't think there's any way Lilly is a number 2 starter on a legitimate contender. On a .500 team, sure. He's a .500 pitcher. When he was on a real contender, he was a 4th starter.*


Precisely. On a team like, say, the Minnesota Twins or the Florida Marlins, Lilly isn't much more than a fourth starter. He's OUR #2, but that doesn't make him a GOOD #2. Anyone with Lilly as their #2 starter needs a dynamic offence to really contend. We don't have that, because, quite frankly, the Blue Jays aren't really contenders. We'll end the season with between 75 and 85 wins, and hopefully next year make some further improvements.
Named For Hank - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#120487) #
Simon, what will you do if the Jays get more than 85 wins? Will you get I WAS WRONG tattooed somewhere visible?
Gitz - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#120489) #
NFH, are you suggesting the Jays will win 85 games? I'm not too keen on a Shea Hillenbrand jersey, but me thinks a new USC sweatshirt would look mighty nice on me in October when the Trojans clobber the Huskies . . .
Lefty - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#120492) #
It depends if its a keeper league and how much Hills price tag is. But I would say Chen is a fair price. The present owner of Hill has already accumulated the best set of stats Hill will put from here. Hill might give a little more pop here on out but his avg., rbi's and runs are way over the top at this stage.

But if I'm the other owner I'd certainy be inquiring about your other two guys because I also believe Chen's best starts are behind him.
Lefty - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#120493) #
According to Rotoworld who sourced the Boston Herald and Toronto Sun the Red Sox have a passle of scouts in town to scout Ted Lilly.
Lefty - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#120494) #
Those are good points Gitz. I have been singing Shapiro's praises from the day that trade was made. And the kicker to that deal was as I recall Shapiro pulled the trigger on that one at least a full week before the trade deadline.

No guts, no glory. I think the best deals for the team giving up the major leaguer or rental player are done in late June or early July. The GM's seem to get all tangled up in the dying deadline daze.
Lefty - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#120495) #
Lefty takes a bow for at least sparking a 66 comment game report thread.

I really don't put much stock in what JP says about this player or that player, or whether the Jays are buyers or sellers.

If senior level managers are in the house in droves scouting the Jays then just maybe most of the names mentioned in this thread today are on the market.

Personally I hope they don't trade Hudson or Batista. I think each give the team value performance. I'm not so worried about Hudson's bat either. Omar Vizquel or Carlos Guillen were no hell with the bat in Seattle either.

If I'm Ricciardi I'd be talking to Batista's agent for an extension and I was a doubter at the start of the season too.

As much as I respect Gitz's opinions on many baseball topics and even politics I think he's just bent out of shape on Ted. When he's on its no fluke. For him its still about harnessing that talent and being consistant. Thats why GM's are in town scouting him.

The same crowd who were Escobar detracters are strangely silent on his skill set now, notwithstanding his fragile arm.

Named For Hank - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#120497) #
NFH, are you suggesting the Jays will win 85 games?

I said 90 in my pre-season prediction, but I'm not into making hard-and-fast-this-will-happen pronouncements. But those who do should be ready to put their money where their mouths are.

But let's say we had a bet at 85 games: you'd get a sweatshirt for 84 or less, what would I get for 85 or more?

Named For Hank - Thursday, June 23 2005 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#120498) #
I'm leaving on my road trip tomorrow morning instead of tonight, by the way. I'll be out of internet connectivity for the most part. Why don't we formalize some kind of bet after I get back? We needed a new NFH challenge anyways.
Gitz - Friday, June 24 2005 @ 04:18 AM EDT (#120525) #
Why don't we formalize some kind of bet after I get back? We needed a new NFH challenge anyway.

Done. I mean, waiting to be done.

Jays 3, Orioles 2: A Balk in the Park | 70 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.