Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - A Hit, A Palpable Hit

Not even Tuesday Burley mojo could cope with this. Hell hath no fury, etc., etc. Chris Carpenter returned to Toronto and kicked some Blue Jay butt. He faced one batter over the minimum, and his Game Score of 94 was the best in the major leagues this year.

But... you have to consider who he was facing.

The Blue Jays have been shut out in three of their last six games, and have scored a total of 34 runs in 13 June games. Nobody wins scoring 2.6 runs per game, not even Roy Halladay.

The Blue Jays scored 719 runs last year, 12th out of 14 AL teams. This year, they are on pace to score 720 runs, which should be good enough for 10th place. The good news... well, they're scoring 4.45 runs a game despite losing Carlos Delgado. The bad news, of course, is that they're scoring 4.45 runs a game.

We all knew this was going to happen, didn't we? Enough of us said as much in the Blue Jays Roundtable Preview. To wit:

Dave Till: They'll have trouble scoring enough runs.

Jordan: The offence just won't be there.

Gerry: I am concerned about the offense, will it score enough?

Magpie: 79-83. Sorry, they just won't score quite enough runs.

That's one of my few pre-season prophecies that isn't making me duck and cover ("the White Sox will finish third"). But it seemed obvious. Take away the best hitter from the twelfth best offense in the league... there will be problems.

You notice that having expected it to happen somehow doesn't make the experience more tolerable? Why is that?

In a moment of rash optimism, the kind of giddiness we are all permitted in spring training, I allowed myself to speculate on what would be required for the Blue Jays to contend. This year. My thinking was that cutting the runs allowed by about 60 was feasible - just give all Pat Hentgen's innings to Roy Halladay.

If this happened, and the offense stayed at the same level of 4.45 runs per game, the Jays would probably win 78-80 games. To get beyond that and into actual contention for a post-season berth would require roughly a 100 run improvement from the offense. So my bright idea - hey, it was spring, I even called the piece And I Have a Dream Today - was this: How about if every spot in the lineup, plus the bench, is 10 runs better than last year. Is that feasible?

Probably not, but I proceeded to run down a scenario by which it was... uh... thinkable.

Since then, the pitching part of that happy equation has gone much better than anticipated. The Jays are on pace to reduce their runs allowed by a whopping 130 runs. The struggles of Ted Lilly and, to a lesser extent, Dave Bush have been more than offset by the return to health of Roy Halladay, the impressive development of Gustavo Chacin, and the improved work turned in Josh Towers, Pete Walker, and the bullpen.

It doesn't look, however, as if the Jays are going to tack on an extra 100 runs of offense. No way, no how.

Anyway, once again I've been playing with spreadsheets, and will be passing along lots of numbers for you to consider. Yes - I report, you decide.

Let's go position-by-position through the American League, and see how the Jays are doing. Everybody is ranked by Runs Created - I'm an old-fashioned guy. I might mention right now that it was the enormous manual labour involved in preparing these tables that delayed Today's Game Report, oh hungry readers. If I wasn't a rookie, I'd have some help. I bet Professor Mo Phatt has students that he keeps chained up in his office, just for this type of chore.

CATCHER	        GPL  ABT  R  H  2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB GDP BAV   OBP  SLG  RC 
Boston	         63  237 34 70  13  1 12  29  0  0  4  58 22  3  .295 .364 .511  44
Chicago Sox	 63  227 34 64  11  0 11  28  0  3  6  28 13  3  .282 .336 .476  36
NY Yankees	 62  227 28 59   8  0  8  28  0  0  1  41 25  2  .260 .335 .401  30
Minnesota        61  235 23 63   8  0  5  29  3  1  3  29 21  8  .268 .333 .366  29
Tampa Bay	 64  220 20 61  11  0  5  23  0  0  0  30 18  6  .277 .332 .395  28
LA Angels	 63  209 21 55   6  0  9  33  1  2  1  40 18  6  .263 .320 .421  28
Texas	         62  216 19 58  12  0  5  32  0  0  2  36 15  1  .269 .319 .394  27
Baltimore	 63  237 30 57  11  0 11  36  0  0  1  51 11  9  .241 .274 .426  27
AVERAGE	         62  226 26 56  10  0  6  28  1  1  2  40 18  6  .248 .307 .383  26
Detroit	         60  242 35 60  14  2  5  27  2  2  1  46 10 10  .248 .277 .384  25
Kansas City	 62  214 26 48   9  1  6  26  2  1  0  52 15  4  .224 .273 .360  21
Oakland	         62  245 29 56  11  0  0  19  3  0  5  25 23 11  .229 .308 .273  20
Cleveland	 61  235 21 48   9  0  6  26  0  0  3  28 20  7  .204 .270 .319  20
Toronto	         64  208 20 43  10  1  4  32  1  0  1  42 28  6  .207 .299 .322  20
Seattle	         61  211 17 44  11  0  3  21  0  2  2  53  6  7  .209 .236 .303  15

This, alas, was one of the positions where it seemed reasonable to expect improvement. After all, Kevin Cash had more than 180 at bats last year. Unfortunately, Ken Huckaby makes Kevin Cash look a lot like Johnny Bench. Jays catchers were 10th in runs created in 2004; this year, they're 13th.

FIRST BASE	GPL  ABT  R  H  2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB GDP  BAV  OBP  SLG  RC
Texas	         62  259 48 73  16  1 16  48  1  0  4  43 20  5  .282 .343 .537  47
Baltimore	 63  229 38 71  11  1  9  34  3  1  2  22 28  5  .310 .385 .485  43
Minnesota	 61  241 33 66  12  3 11  44  0  0  3  42 20  4  .274 .332 .485  39
Seattle	         61  221 39 55  14  0 14  48  1  0  1  70 34  6  .249 .350 .502  38
Boston	         63  240 29 70  11  1  7  32  0  0  6  31 24  5  .292 .366 .433  38
Kansas City	 62  252 30 74  16  1  7  37  3  0  1  35 14  6  .294 .330 .448  37
Chicago Sox	 63  227 34 55   6  0 14  39  0  0  3  55 36  6  .242 .352 .454  36
AVERAGE  	 62  236 34 63  12  1  9  36  2  1  3  43 24  6  .265 .339 .437  35
NY Yankees	 62  220 38 53  10  0 14  40  1  0  4  42 28  7  .241 .333 .477  35
LA Angels	 63  265 40 74  15  2  3  32  4  2  0  49 20  1  .279 .329 .385  34
Cleveland	 61  238 30 63  18  3  8  34  2  0  2  42 11  6  .265 .303 .466  33
Toronto	         64  239 41 61  10  1  8  34  6  0  4  51 19  6  .255 .318 .406  31
Oakland	         62  234 25 61  10  0  3  23  0  1  3  31 25  9  .261 .337 .342  26
Tampa Bay	 64  226 26 53  14  1  3  30  5  4  0  39 33  5  .235 .332 .345  26
Detroit	         60  217 24 46  11  0  6  22  0  1  5  54 25  6  .212 .308 .346  23

First base figured to be a problem - even after a slow start and missing a month with an injury, Delgado powered Toronto first basemen to 4th in the AL in runs created. The fall-off here was pretty much unavoidable, even though Hinske and Hillenbrand have played well by their own standards.

SECOND BASE	 GPL  ABT   R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB  GDP  BAV  OBP  SLG  RC
Baltimore	  63  257  45 91 16  5 11  34 14  4   3  36 31  7  .354 .430 .584  66
Texas	          62  255  51 72 17  0 19  44  8  0   3  47 14  4  .282 .325 .573  48
Chicago Sox	  63  248  32 73 12  2  4  31  8  3   1  48 21  7  .294 .348 .407  36
Kansas City	  62  226  30 64 11  1  6  26  4  4   4  39 18  2  .283 .341 .420  33
LA Angels	  63  231  37 68 12  2  2  28 14  3   1  40 16  3  .294 .337 .390  33
AVERAGE 	  62  233  31 63 13  1  6  26  5  2   2  42 19  5  .269 .326 .407  31
Cleveland	  61  231  26 62 10  0  8  27  6  0   4  31 12  5  .268 .313 .416  31
Tampa Bay	  64  234  32 62 12  1  5  25  2  1   3  49 17  8  .265 .320 .389  29
Seattle	          61  228  24 55 14  2  5  31  3  1   3  42 18  5  .241 .304 .386  27
NY Yankees	  62  230  26 62 16  0  3  21  2  3   3  37  9  8  .270 .303 .378  26
Boston	          63  214  30 50 16  0  3  16  1  0   0  75 38  5  .234 .346 .350  26
Oakland	          62  226  24 54  9  1  5  23  1  0   1  29 24  4  .239 .311 .354  25
Minnesota	  61  217  27 58 10  2  2  12  4  2   1  46 15  5  .267 .315 .359  25
Toronto	          64  248  24 55 11  2  2  28  4  1   2  30 17  5  .222 .273 .306  21
Detroit	          60  214  21 50 13  1  3  24  4  1   2  37 11  4  .234 .273 .346  21

This has been a major disappointment. Both Hudson and Menechino are having poor years at the plate, and Hudson has added to the damage by being especially awful when he hits near the top of the order. Hudson is hitting .219 when he bats first or second; he's hitting .302 when he bats 6-7-8.

THIRD BASE	 GPL  ABT   R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB  GDP  BAV  OBP  SLG  RC
NY Yankees	  62  229  48 75 12  0 19  56  6  3   4  43 39  5  .328 .434 .629  63
Baltimore	  63  254  43 77 15  0 13  43  6  1   5  44 19  7  .303 .361 .516  48
Toronto	          64  242  43 76  9  2  9  34  1  1   6  38 23  5  .314 .386 .479  44
Texas	          62  256  37 75 18  0 11  37  1  0   0  57 25  5  .293 .356 .492  44
Detroit	          60  236  36 71 12  5  5  27  3  1   0  53 32  4  .301 .383 .458  41
Tampa Bay	  64  237  35 71 15  0  8  34  1  0   4  46 13  7  .300 .345 .464  37
AVERAGE	          62  234  34 63 12  1  8  31  3  1   3  46 21  7  .270 .338 .432  34
Boston	          63  220  37 62 14  0  4  27  0  0   8  33 32 11  .282 .392 .400  33
Oakland	          62  244  30 61 11  0 10  38  0  0   1  55 23  5  .250 .315 .418  32
Chicago Sox	  63  208  30 52  8  0  9  25  1  4   8  30 16  6  .250 .322 .418  28
LA Angels	  63  233  31 53 14  5  7  24  4  3   2  59 16  6  .227 .282 .421  28
Minnesota	  61  221  29 57 15  0  3  24  3  3   1  43 19 15  .258 .316 .367  25
Seattle	          61  249  35 59 13  0  5  30  1  0   3  43 11  4  .237 .277 .349  24
Kansas City	  62  224  25 58 11  1  2  21  4  2   1  41 15  6  .259 .308 .344  24
Cleveland	  61  222  18 38  5  1  5  20  4  2   5  52 11  8  .171 .225 .270  14

This has been the good news, and this was expected - Koskie replaces Hinske. In fact, the good work has been shared equally by Koskie and Hillenbrand, with Hill making a nice contribution recently.

SHORTSTOP	  GPL ABT   R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB  GDP  BAV  OBP  SLG  RC
Baltimore	   63 257  45 83 22  3 17  51  1  1   2  34 18  8  .323 .371 .630  59
Texas	           62 260  44 79 11  3  8  34  2  1   1  35 21  9  .304 .358 .462  42
NY Yankees	   62 252  40 72  9  2  6  26  7  3   6  45 32  3  .286 .377 .409  40
Tampa Bay          64 259  33 74 11  2  2  29 15  3   1  26 18  5  .286 .331 .367  34
Oakland	           62 214  33 57 16  3  4  25  3  0   0  25 26  5  .266 .346 .425  31
Boston	           63 263  37 71 10  2  5  28  3  0   1  41 17 11  .270 .317 .380  31
AVERAGE 	   62 234  31 63 11  2  5  26  5  1   2  35 18  5  .267 .322 .404  31
Cleveland	   61 211  25 56 10  4  7  23  1  2   1  45 18  7  .265 .321 .450  30
Detroit	           60 231  28 63  7  5  3  18  4  0   2  35 19  5  .273 .333 .385  30
Kansas City	   62 253  32 63 11  2  5  20  4  4   6  49  9  2  .249 .291 .368  27
LA Angels	   63 238  27 59 12  2  4  21  6  0   2  22 16  4  .248 .301 .366  27
Minnesota	   61 228  30 58 12  1  5  27  2  0   1  39 16  4  .254 .305 .382  27
Toronto	           64 201  23 48 10  2  4  25  9  0   1  24 17  3  .239 .296 .368  23
Chicago Sox	   63 212  25 50 12  0  4  30  5  3   0  33 14  3  .236 .276 .349  21
Seattle	           61 194  17 42  7  2  0   9  4  3   3  32 12  3  .216 .273 .273  15

Jays shortstops have gone from 13th in the league to 12th. It's something, I suppose, but I think we were expecting a bit more improvement here, especially after the way Russ Adams hit last September.

LEFT FIELD	  GPL ABT   R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB  GDP  BAV  OBP  SLG  RC
Texas	           62 233  44 71 21  3 15  46  1  1   3  35 24  0  .305 .374 .614  54
Toronto	           64 252  36 78 14  4  7  34  0  4  10  34 12  5  .310 .362 .480  43
LA Angels	   63 250  37 79 13  3  7  49  1  1   0  35 16  5  .316 .354 .476  42
Tampa Bay	   64 267  42 77 12  4  7  39 15  3   2  50 13  1  .288 .322 .442  41
Boston	           63 249  40 62 13  1 14  54  1  0   4  54 28  8  .249 .331 .478  39
Minnesota	   61 262  40 74  9  0 10  36  3  1   4  28 18  6  .282 .334 .431  38
Cleveland	   61 236  34 66 15  1  8  26  5  5   0  36 26  4  .280 .350 .453  38
Detroit	           60 238  27 71 11  2 10  43  1  0   2  41  8  4  .298 .323 .487  37
AVERAGE	           62 242  35 68 13  2  7  34  6  3   3  38 19  4  .279 .339 .433  36
Chicago Sox	   63 245  42 71  7  0  0  18 32  9   3  35 27  3  .290 .363 .318  34
Seattle	           61 228  24 66 19  0  1  24  8  5   2  32 24  2  .289 .358 .386  33
Baltimore	   63 240  29 66 13  2  7  29  3  1   0  44 11  4  .275 .303 .433  32
Kansas City	   62 230  24 62 10  3  4  27  3  3   2  33 16  5  .270 .319 .391  29
NY Yankees	   62 253  40 63  9  1  3  27 14  1   0  41 24  5  .249 .311 .328  28
Oakland	           62 211  25 42 10  1  5  22  1  3  10  33 23  1  .199 .306 .327  21

This is a shocker, but Reed Johnson and Frank Catalanotto have been better than expected. Add to that the way that Manny Ramirez has struggled, the Yankees decision to play Tony Womack in left, and this is what you get.

CENTRE FIELD	  GPL ABT   R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB  GDP  BAV  OBP  SLG  RC
Boston	           63 267  52 93 18  4  2  37  7  1   0  26 26  2  .348 .402 .468  52
Minnesota	   61 237  42 67 17  1 11  43 14  5   7  36 21  6  .283 .356 .502  44
Tampa Bay	   64 241  46 72 16  2  8  33 12  3   1  43 15  3  .299 .341 .481  41
Cleveland	   61 249  34 74 11  6  6  30  8  4   1  55 13  4  .297 .335 .462  39
Chicago Sox	   63 239  35 68 16  1  5  28  9  2   7  43 15  3  .285 .342 .423  36
Toronto	           64 245  30 64 10  1 13  34  2  2   0  32 20  6  .261 .311 .469  36
Oakland	           62 258  35 73 16  1  4  36  1  2   1  25 21  2  .283 .337 .399  35
AVERAGE 	   62 241  35 67 14  2  5  31  7  3   2  37 19  4  .278 .332 .421  35
Detroit	           60 216  30 68 12  2  2  17 13  4   0  31 10  6  .315 .344 .417  33
LA Angels	   63 239  29 57 17  2  8  36  7  5   2  35 20  5  .238 .299 .427  31
Kansas City	   62 245  35 65 10  6  2  26  1  5   4  41 22  3  .265 .335 .380  31
Seattle	           61 227  27 61 16  1  3  25  4  2   1  34 22  3  .269 .335 .388  30
NY Yankees	   62 242  28 61 17  1  3  33  2  0   0  35 25  6  .252 .317 .368  28
Baltimore	   63 232  37 60  9  1  3  27 11  3   3  29 19  3  .259 .319 .345  27
Texas	           62 243  28 56 11  4  4  32  2  1   0  54 12  7  .230 .265 .358  23

Jays centre fielders are sixth in runs created; last year they were seventh. Vernon Wells, of course, missed a month with an injury last year - we were all hoping that a healthy Wells might be able to repeat his sensational 2003 performance. Not yet...

RIGHT FIELD	  GPL ABT   R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB  GDP  BAV  OBP  SLG  RC
LA Angels	   63 248  47 76 14  1 13  43 10  4   4  24 17  7  .306 .361 .528  48
NY Yankees	   62 235  36 69 15  0 11  43  6  1   1  35 39  4  .294 .392 .498  47
Kansas City	   62 223  38 65 20  2 10  39  0  1   3  46 25  7  .291 .368 .534  43
Boston	           63 232  39 67 12  0 11  48  1  0   2  25 30  4  .289 .369 .483  42
Baltimore	   63 246  32 68 15  2 13  36  1  0   2  36 19  8  .276 .333 .512  41
Tampa Bay	   64 243  34 74 14  2  4  33 10  3   5  44 22  3  .305 .369 .428  40
Seattle	           61 254  41 75  7  6  3  19 15  4   0  26 19  1  .295 .342 .406  38
Minnesota	   61 222  27 63 10  2  8  37  5  5   5  46 26  9  .284 .366 .455  37
AVERAGE	           62 235  34 64 12  2  9  35  5  3   3  41 23  5  .271 .341 .450  36
Chicago Sox	   63 239  29 62 14  1 13  35  4  2   4  47 13  9  .259 .309 .490  35
Oakland	           62 238  33 69 12  1  5  35  2  0   1  44 20  6  .290 .347 .412  34
Texas	           62 225  36 52  8  0 13  35  3  3   4  51 24  4  .231 .315 .440  31
Toronto	           64 244  33 61 13  5  4  27  7  5   2  53 15  5  .250 .297 .393  29
Cleveland	   61 230  28 47 11  2  8  23  3  6   2  47 26  4  .204 .291 .374  25
Detroit	           60 217  22 45  4  3  6  32  3  2   2  45 22  4  .207 .280 .336  21

Alex Rios is making some progress overall, but at this point most of his value still comes from his batting average. Sparky and the Gambino went 6-37 (.162) while playing RF, which didn't help.

DH	          GPL ABT   R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS HBP SO BB  GDP  BAV  OBP  SLG  RC
Boston	           57 222  39 62 17  0 14  52  0  0   1  48 31  6  .279 .366 .545  44
Detroit	           54 209  35 63 14  2 10  30  1  1   3  42 14  5  .301 .354 .531  39
Cleveland	   52 193  30 53 11  0 10  26  0  0   5  41 30  4  .275 .386 .487  36
Minnesota	   55 210  31 60 11  2  5  21  4  0   4  41 19  3  .286 .355 .429  32
Seattle	           55 202  27 56 11  1  7  25  2  0   1  42 24  5  .277 .357 .446  32
Kansas City	   56 197  29 48 11  0 10  27  1  1   1  43 32  4  .244 .349 .452  31
Texas	           56 199  36 49  6  3  7  20  2  2   2  45 37  4  .246 .368 .412  30
Toronto	           58 216  31 60 16  2  3  21  0  0   6  37 17  9  .278 .347 .412  30
AVERAGE	           55 203  29 52 11  1  7  28  2  1   3  41 23  6  .257 .337 .425  29
Chicago Sox	   54 201  25 50  8  0 10  40  3  3   1  34 18  4  .249 .307 .438  28
Tampa Bay	   55 206  25 53 13  0  7  36  2  0   4  58 14  5  .257 .311 .422  27
Baltimore	   57 208  28 46 15  1  6  30  0  0   0  23 18  8  .221 .278 .389  22
Oakland	           53 199  24 45  7  1  5  22  1  0   2  34 22  8  .226 .309 .347  21
NY Yankees	   53 182  19 38  8  0  5  23  0  0   5  51 24  4  .209 .315 .335  19
LA Angels	   54 202  24 47  4  2  1  16  8  3   0  38 16  9  .233 .288 .287  17

Improvement here seemed fairly predictable, if only because Jays DHs were so poor in 2004 (12th in the league.)

Posted by Magpie on Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 12:10 PM EDT.

A Hit, A Palpable Hit | 31 comments | Create New Account

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HollywoodHartman - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#119668) #

Is This supposed to make us feel better?

Nigel - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#119672) #

This is really good work Magpie. Thanks for the effort.

In reality, this offense is performing about as expected with one exception:

C - it's unrealistic to expect more from Zaun (he is a waiver wire pick-up making near league minimum)- in fact, if he can continue to produce at this level you have to give him and JP kudos;

1B - after a hot start, Hiske is well ... Hinske - again I think his last 2 and a half years tells us that that this is about his level of production;

2B - Hudson has been a disappointment - I thought it was reasonable to expect something like last year's numbers - however, he seems lost again from the right side of the plate;

SS - I'll preface this by saying that I've become a big fan of Adams and have become cautiously optimistic about his offense, but given that he's a rookie and put up 750ish OPS numbers at each stop in the minors I'm not sure you can expect more from him (strangely, the problem in the minors was his isolated power numbers, which have been good this year, so there's hope);

3B - Hillenbrand's return to his traditional production level should hopefully be offset by Koskie's return - again no improvement to be expected;

LF - while the production has been a pleasent surprise, I think that the last 2 years of platoon splits suggested that the two headed LF monster could be a productive place in the line-up;

CF - 2003 looks more and more like the aberration - however late May and early June give hope;

RF - Rios is peforming very much like he did in 2004; there are definite signs of progress but I still think it will be a year or two before those translate into significantly improved performance.

Going forward this team will have trouble having even a league average offense without getting improved production from some portion of C, 1B, 2B, SS, and RF. The pieces may be in place to get improvement from 2B, SS and RF but I think the jury's still out on Adams and Rios. The only frustrating part of this season for me has been the reluctance to play Adams and Rios all the time. If the goal is to see what you have for '06 and beyond you need to seem them get their 550 AB's so that JP can figure out if he needs to get help at just C and 1B or if its all of those positions.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#119673) #

Big thing from this is that it makes it even more obvious where improvement can be made, and the plus is that it should be easy when you have near bottom level offense at a handful of positions vs a ton of middle of the road stuff ala the Ash years.

Catcher, 2B, SS, RF are bottom 3 in the league. Catcher is old too which makes that an easy slot to replace (Zaun as backup). SS and RF are rookies/near rookies who better improve this year or be replaced in the offseason with options inhouse (Hill/Gross) or via trade/FA. 2B has high end defense so we can live with it. 3 easy areas to improve without much fear of dropping to a lower level.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#119679) #

Nice charts, Magpie.

A little comment about flow is in order, however. The Jay offence was actually a little above league average in all respects, as recently as last week. It's been a horrid week for the offence, and it is easy to overstate how bad things are when one is at the nadir, in the same way that it is easy to come to the opposite conclusion at the apex.

Taking a longer view than 1/2 a season is not a bad way to look at it. If one looks at 2003 and 2004 performance, Hudson can be expected to be better over the 2nd half of the season, as can Adams. Reed Johnson cannot be expected to continue to be the best hitter on the club. John McDonald can be expected to regress as well.

It's really a simple story. This team lives or dies with the development of the young hitters. The mature talent is simply not good enough to carry the offence. Rios, Adams and Hill can all be better than league average hitters. Whether they will be no one knows, but it is pretty much a certainty that the mature talent will not be enough.

mistermike - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#119681) #

Anyone else forsee JP dangling Hudson or Adams (and some minor leaguers) in exchange for a power-hitting outfielder or first baseman?

Middle infield certainly is a position of strength for this organization. Power hitting isn't. Hudson and Adams are still very much developing prospects in their own right. I can see other general managers being interested in their potential.

Ron - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#119682) #

I'm sure many here would disagree with me but I feel like Rios should be shopped around in the off-season. I know he's only 24 years old but I don't ever see him hitting for enough power in a corner OF position. Hitting around 10 homers isn't going to cut it. I feel like his D has also regressed this season. I'm sure there are other clubs out there that would still like to have him because of his potential.

Even with the return of Koskie, the Jays need to bring in 2 big bats in the off-season. Hopefully Carlos Lee is one of those. If I was the GM I would want an upgrade at LF, RF, 1B, DH, and perhaps the C position.

Ryan C - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#119683) #

Great stuff Magpie.

It's interesting stuff. I think if you asked most people they'd say that LF is one of the Jays biggest needs because they dont have a 600AB regular out there, but this shows that the Cat/Reed platoon is working just fine on some level.

Personally I think Rios and Adams are going to be fine players (Rios moreso) but the question is "just how good?" and "how long can the Jays afford to wait and see?". It would be a shame if they decided to trade Rios only to have him become an all-star in another organization.

The Jays clearly need a better hitting Catcher and 1B seems like an obvious one to me also. Im torn about 2nd base. O-Dog is a fan favorite and his defense is irreplaceable, but if he can't start hitting regularly then his worth to the team takes a considerable drop. If the Jays already had a heavy hitting lineup then a light bat here or there could be covered up, but the Jays dont so it can't.

Gitz - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#119685) #

Ok, but why would other teams want a middle infielder for their own power-hitting outfielders of first basemen? You're the GM of the Reds, and you're offered Adams and Gross and a pitcher (they're nearly all the same, so it doesn't matter who) for, say, Willy Mo Pena. Do you take that deal? Quantity is not the same as quality, and it never has been.

Trading from a position of strength is one thing. Finding someone to absorb your depth -- and the inferior elements of that depth -- is another. If JP wants a power-hitting OF in return for one of his middle infielders, he's going to have to dangle Aaron Hill. And that's not going to happen.

Stellers Jay - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#119689) #

Rios will hit 10-12 homers this year and then I think he will breakout next year with 25 homers. If I was JP, I would keep Rios in Toronto all winter and hire a chef and a personal trainer for him. Forget winter ball and have him "actually" put on 15-20 pounds over the offseason. The comment on his defense being worse I completely disagree with. He's not going to pile up the outfield assists like last year because the book is out and teams aren't going to test him nearly as much.

This team is basically what everybody expected it to be within 5 games either way of .500 . I would place Hillenbrand, Lilly, Batista, Speier, and Cat firmly on the trade block as the deadline approaches. They are all under control for next year (if the Jays so choose). Shop them around and target a piece or two for the near future and if they have to add a pitching prospect to the deal, so be it. After the the dealine (with a couple or roster spots free) I would give Arnold, Rosario, Gross, and Griffin a regular kick at the can and see what they can do. At the same time Adams, Hill, and Rios all need to play full-time. This year is about seeing who can help them for 2006 and 2007 and out of those who is a keeper and who is a chip to land a needed piece.

mistermike - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#119690) #

Ok, but why would other teams want a middle infielder for their own power-hitting outfielders of first basemen?

My rationale there is that SS and 2B are such thin positions in Major League Baseball. Outfielders with modest power are a dime a dozen. Most organizations don't have middle infield prospects of the level of Hudson or Adams.

In short, the Jays' strength is the weakness of many other teams.

Dave Till - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#119691) #

Great article as always. A few comments, by position:

Catcher: This isn't really J.P.'s fault. At the start of the season, he had Zaun, Quiroz, Myers and then Huckaby. Quiroz got hurt, Myers didn't make it back, and Zaun was hurt for a bit. That's a lot of catcher trouble. Quiroz's injuries have set his development back a year or more, alas, so this may be a difficult problem to solve if Zaun doesn't get his mojo back.

First base: As I've said before, all of this is Josh Phelps's fault. He was supposed to be Toronto's First Baseman of the Future. Instead, he's Tampa Bay's First Baseman of the Recent Past. The good news: first basemen with mid-range power are not exactly scarce commodities. If Hinske doesn't step forward, Hattig might be able to do the job. Or the Jays probably could pick up somebody for a spare pitcher.

Second base: The O-Dog is a streaky hitter. A few weeks from now, he'll be hitting like crazy. I hope.

Shortstop: At this point, I'd give Hill an extended run at short. The Jays need to find out whether he can play the position at the major league level. If he can, Adams can be traded, or Hill becomes even more valuable. At this point, I think we have a clear idea of what Adams can do.

Left field: I had no idea that Toronto had the second-best left field combination in the majors. This suggests that the Jays could give Sparky more playing time at the expense of Rios, I suppose.

Centre field: V-Dub is hitting .304/.353/.543 in June. And there's lots of hot weather still to come. Good things will happen here.

Right field: I don't know what to do about Rios, either. If it weren't for his monster season in AA, I guess no one would think he was good enough to be a major league regular. And I don't think either Gross or Griffin is going to be good enough to make it.

Designated hitter: Exactly average. And DH's are even easier to find than first basemen.

Conclusions:

- The hitting is a problem.

- But it's not as much of a problem as it seems right now. No team is ever as bad as it looks when it is slumping. Eventually, the Jays will stop playing .600 teams and/or ex-Jay pitchers trying to prove a point. There aren't that many of either out there.

Dave Till - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#119692) #

The shortstop comment should read: "Hill becomes even more valuable in a trade." Me proofread good.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#119694) #

The Jay offence was actually a little above league average in all respects, as recently as last week. It's been a horrid week for the offence

Amen to that. Roughly two weeks ago, the Jays were averaging 4.9 runs a game and were fifth in scoring. If they'd kept up that pace, they'd have scored another 20 runs and would still be fifth.

I only mentioned the pitching improvement in passing, but it's worth a much closer look. Because it's been much greater, so far, than I expected. Even in my more optimistic moments... the team ERA has gone from 4.91 to 4.11, which is a pretty big deal.

Ron - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#119695) #

The argument on Rios is interesting.

Some people will argue he's young so you have to give him time to develop. The real question is how many AB's do you want to give him to gauge what he can and can't do?

If you trade him this off-season and he blossoms into a power hitter next season you'll be kicking yourself. But you might also be kicking yourself is he has a similar season next year and his trade value takes a big hit.

I had high hopes for Rios going into this season because he said he worked hard in the off-season. He also said (as well as report on the Jays website on mlb.com) he put on about 10-15pds of muscle to help his power stroke this season.

I remember there were rumblings in the off-season that Bowden was interested in a Johnson for Rios swap. For all Da Box members here, if you were offfered that trade today would you turn it down?

Wildrose - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#119697) #

Great stuff Magpie, I was curious about positional offensive output and was glad to find these numbers broken down in your essay.

I agree with Dave, to get full value for Hill you need to move him up the defensive spectrum. According to Magpie's numbers the average A.L. third basemen has a .865 OPS, SS .726 OPS, and second basemen a .733 OPS. I think Hill is a guy who may produce third basemen like offensive numbers, at a premium defensive position.

This means cutting bait on either Hudson or Adams. Personally I'd find it hard to trade the O-Dog and I think second base may be Hill's best position. I wonder sometimes , given his superior range and relatively strong arm (played third in the minors) if Hudson could play shortstop?

Wildrose - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#119698) #

Rich Lederer at Baseball Analysts has a nice Q and A with John Lalonde .

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#119699) #

Wildrose, unless I am horribly misreading Magpie's chart, the average third baseman has an OPS of .780. Strangely enough, if the Yankees moved A-Rod to where he belongs at short, short and third would be about even.

Hill has a great arm and average lateral range (he's very good coming in); intuitively I wouldn't have thought that second base would be a natural spot for him, but what do I know?

Wildrose - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#119700) #

Your right Mike, I misread the Jays third base OPS numbers instead of the league average OPS.

I'm not sure about Hill's lateral range thats why I feel he'd be better a second (although lateral range is pretty important there as well). I'd like to see if he can play his way off short, given his strong arm,and the relatively slow field turf, he may be able to play deeper negating the effects of his percieved lack of quickness( in contrast to Adams who has a poor arm and has to play shallow).

If Hill could play short he has huge value... the team needs to find this out.

Jonny German - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#119701) #

Russ Adams after 72 Major League at-bats: .306 / .359 / .528
Aaron Hill after 71 Major League at-bats: .352 / .418 / .493

Interesting. Hill has gone 1-for-10 (a double) since then.

perlhack - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#119702) #

At ESPN, there's yet another story about the new stadium for the Yankees, including this tidbit:

The team will pay for the stadium on its own, and the cost of paying off the bonds used to raise the money will be deducted from the Yankees' locally-generated revenue. That will lower the Yankees' revenue sharing payments to the commissioner's office.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#119703) #

Russ Adams is the most interesting statistical story. It seems that he has medium range pop, good speed, and he's not striking out much. Yet, he's hitting for a poor average so far this season. A modest change in approach at the plate (taking the odd outside pitch to left-centre or down the left-field line) could yield significant dividends.

THT's PrOPS has him at .280/.336/.440. In his case, I think this is a fair assessment of what he can achieve this season.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#119704) #

Perlback, that's interesting. Following the money between the Yankees and NYC will definitely require a forensic accountant.

MatO - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#119705) #

Rios's problem is not strength or weight. Anyone who can hit opposite field homeruns has power to spare. It's all mechanical, but there's no guarantee he'll correct it.

R Billie - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#119707) #

Russ makes consistent contact but it often isn't hard. A lot of routine grounders, jam shots, or lazy flyballs come off his bat. It's possible that he's a good contact hitter who just isn't being patient or selective or aggressive enough in the right measures. He does swing at a lot of borderline pitches which maybe he should take more of instead of creating routine outs on them. Does anyone know his linedrive % and how it compares to the average player?

baagcur - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#119708) #

Great Article

For those of you interested in similar stats I recently started a section at majorleaguecharts.com based on VORP

I'll endeavour to update it daily, if poss.
Data covers years back to 1980

Incidentally, Hudson appears well overdue for a positive streak. Of the every day players, he is the only one with a negative VORP - contrasting with 2004 performance when he trailed just Delgado and Wells in the Jays standings

Jonny German - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#119710) #

Does anyone know [Adams'] linedrive % and how it compares to the average player?

That's what Mike Green was referring to above - PrOPS are predicted rate stats based on a player's batted ball types and other component stats. For Adams it comes out to .280 / .336 / .440, a .776 predicted OPS in contrast to his actual .685 OPS. To answer your question directly, Adams is hitting 19.4% line drives this year, which is middle-of-the-pack amongst Blue Jays.

Player	PA	LD%
Hillenbrand	269	23.1%
McDonald J.	78	23.0%
Hill A. 	89	22.4%
Johnson R.	170	21.7%
Menechino F.	77	21.4%
Zaun G. 	180	20.5%
Adams R.	167	19.4%
Hinske E.	229	18.4%
Rios A. 	230	18.3%
Hudson O.	247	17.6%
Koskie C.	163	15.6%
Catalanotto	168	15.2%
Wells V.	267	14.1%

For more go to The Hardball Times.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#119711) #

I spent much more time assembling these numbers than looking at them or thinking about them, so a few random league-wide observations:

Pierzynski has been a big offensive upgrade for the White Sox, whose catchers were below average last year. That's just about the only good offensive news for the White Sox - they had the third highest scoring offense in the AL last year, and this time around they're eighth. And what's up with Detroit's catchers? Pudge, what's going on?

Like the Jays, the White Sox have also had a big drop off at first base, where they've gone from second best in the league to just about average. Cleveland has fallen big time as well. Moving on up: Baltimore and Minnesota, both below average last year.

The Orioles had the best production at second base last year, but just barely. This year Roberts is blowing the competition away. Iguichi has been an upgrade in Chicago, but they got decent production there last year anyway. Boston and Toronto have fallen very hard, from second and fourth to below average.

Melvin Mora had a spectacular season last year - the Orioles had 155 runs created from their third baseman, by far the most in the league. Mora has dropped off considerably, although he's having a very fine season, while A-Rod is carrying the Yankees pretty well all by himself.

Detroit, thanks to Carlos Guillen, got the most offense from their shortstops last year. Big drop-off there, and in Chicago, where Juan Uribe has gone back to being Juan Uribe.

LF was a black hole for Texas last year; this year's good work is mostly Kevin Mench's doing. Despite the press reports, Carlos Lee to Scott Podsednik has been a large offensive dropoff in Chicago. Last year Boston and New York were 1-2, followed by the White Sox and Cleveland.

In CF, Oakland, Boston and KC were 1-2-3 last year. Carlos Beltran is long gone, which explains Kansas City. In Oakland, Kotsay's been OK, but he's lost a bit of average and has just 3 HRs.

In RF, the Angels, Seattle, and New York were 1-2-3 last year. This year, Suzuki has been fairly ordinary. Meanwhile KC was dead last in 2004 - this year's improvement is mostly the work of Emil Brown, with help from Matt Stairs.

At DH, Detroit seems to have found a solution, while Oakland has lost one.

Eric Purdy - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#119712) #

"Hey, there's a game tonight, and contrary to that weird rumour, Ted Lilly gets the ball against St Louis."

Clearly I missed something. What weird rumour was there about Lilly?

SimonB - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#119713) #

I don't think you can give up on Rios.

How often do you see it happen? A team gives a player a year or two to prove himself, finally, frustrated, ship him off, and finally he realizes his potential. Not everyone can tear up the league upon their promotion - we've already given up on a ton of players that became major league studs. Michael Young anyone? Chris Carpenter? You can put together a mean team of ex-Jay prospects.

CeeBee - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#119714) #

Trading Rios at this stage of his career could turn out to be as big a mistake as the Canucks trading Cam Neely to Boston. While I like Hinske, his offence for a 1st baseman is never going to cut it. I'd put Hinske and Hillenbrand on the block as well as Lilly and hope to either get a good hitting 1st baseman or corner outfielder(major league or prospect).

Named For Hank - Wednesday, June 15 2005 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#119715) #

Eric, there was some evidence that Chulk would start tonight.

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