Are you as excited about seeing Gustavo Chacin swing the bat as I am?
As sure as eggs is eggs, at some point during the coming week, we will hear some tall forehead explain that American League teams are at a disadvantage because of course AL pitchers don't normally hit.
Listen up, people. NL pitchers don't normally hit, either. They take lots more at bats, but hitting? Not so much.
Magpie! Are you prepared to back up such a sweeping statement with something that could be construed as evidence?
Well, yeah. I prepared lots of pretty numbers for you to ponder. Here is the "hitting" performance of each major league team's pitchers since the onset of inter-league play in 1997. I have ranked them in order of Runs Created per 27 outs. And I hope you like it, because getting these numbers to line up... well, it's a good thing that I have no life, and have all this time to waste trying to entertain you:
Team AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BAV OBP SLG SB CS GDP HB SH SF IW OPS RC27 Minnesota 149 5 29 4 0 0 6 6 57 .195 .226 .221 0 0 2 0 11 0 0 .447 1.66 Colorado 2594 225 464 75 5 26 196 92 860 .179 .210 .242 3 6 35 11 281 12 0 .452 1.65 St.Louis 2659 171 429 73 6 12 162 118 967 .161 .200 .207 2 4 32 9 265 6 0 .406 1.31 San Francisco 2701 201 436 68 2 15 160 100 842 .161 .196 .205 2 5 45 17 336 12 0 .401 1.27 Atlanta 2582 155 401 65 4 14 168 131 870 .155 .200 .200 3 3 39 12 349 2 0 .399 1.26 Seattle 161 10 28 4 0 0 10 4 51 .174 .194 .199 0 0 3 0 21 0 0 .393 1.24 Chicago Cubs 2592 169 407 70 1 17 158 103 987 .157 .191 .204 3 2 31 6 331 7 0 .396 1.24 Cleveland 164 13 24 0 0 3 7 7 74 .146 .186 .201 0 1 2 1 16 0 0 .387 1.17 Texas 151 12 22 6 0 1 8 4 61 .146 .178 .205 1 0 4 2 13 0 0 .384 1.13 Philadelphia 2376 145 344 67 1 10 138 134 954 .145 .192 .186 1 0 41 6 302 11 0 .379 1.11 San Diego 2514 163 359 66 4 9 156 120 997 .143 .186 .183 5 5 41 14 222 12 0 .369 1.06 Tampa Bay 133 7 19 4 0 1 6 5 58 .143 .174 .195 0 1 3 0 8 0 0 .369 1.05 Los Angeles 2553 155 354 63 7 22 127 81 978 .139 .167 .195 5 5 33 6 321 5 0 .362 1.01 Arizona 2260 131 317 51 5 8 107 97 873 .140 .179 .178 3 1 36 9 222 6 0 .357 0.98 Washington 2483 131 350 48 4 13 116 90 953 .141 .174 .179 2 1 23 8 301 4 0 .353 0.97 Florida 2574 135 356 57 8 19 133 78 934 .138 .165 .189 0 1 40 4 220 6 0 .354 0.96 Houston 2626 167 361 62 5 7 166 88 994 .137 .171 .173 3 1 30 18 326 8 0 .344 0.92 New York Mets 2460 134 337 46 3 6 137 116 967 .137 .178 .165 2 2 32 6 270 12 0 .343 0.91 Anaheim 150 8 20 4 0 0 8 8 63 .133 .182 .160 1 0 4 1 13 0 0 .342 0.89 Pittsburgh 2463 126 333 48 4 7 117 102 976 .135 .172 .166 3 1 30 8 299 4 0 .339 0.88 Milwaukee 2199 104 289 39 4 8 98 91 898 .131 .167 .164 0 1 35 4 237 3 0 .331 0.84 Cincinnati 2401 112 302 43 2 6 116 83 983 .126 .157 .153 3 2 25 7 291 6 0 .310 0.74 Chicago WS 145 11 17 2 1 0 2 8 65 .117 .163 .145 1 0 3 0 17 0 0 .308 0.71 Toronto 168 7 18 3 1 1 4 5 62 .107 .153 .155 0 2 3 4 9 0 0 .307 0.70 Baltimore 152 11 17 3 0 0 6 9 74 .112 .161 .132 0 0 1 0 11 0 0 .293 0.64 Detroit 153 11 17 2 1 0 4 7 76 .111 .150 .137 0 0 1 0 9 0 0 .287 0.62 NY Yankees 171 8 20 5 0 0 7 4 70 .117 .137 .146 0 0 4 0 18 0 0 .283 0.60 Kansas City 155 5 15 2 0 0 4 4 75 .097 .119 .110 0 2 4 0 13 0 0 .229 0.38 Boston 143 8 11 1 0 0 1 7 66 .077 .120 .084 0 1 2 0 19 0 0 .204 0.29 Oakland 149 7 10 2 0 0 3 6 66 .067 .109 .081 0 1 3 1 10 1 0 .190 0.25How trivial are these differences? Well, in 1998 Eric Milton went 4-9, all singles. If instead he'd grounded out four times, Minnesota would fall to fifth place.
Are you wondering who stole all those bases? Well, I will tell you. The Prince of Thieves is San Diego's Adam Eaton, with 5 SB since 1997. Tied for second, with 3 apiece, are Mike Hampton and Greg Maddux (Maddux? Yes.) Darren Dreifort and Orel Hershiser each have two SB. Dreifort also hit 6 HRs during this period, which I'm pretty sure puts him second to Hampton in the Home Run Derby.
It's true that the very worst hitting teams come from the AL. Nearly half of the AL teams hit just like the NL pitchers - and the rest of them hit just like you and me. How much does it matter?
Not a whole lot. The difference between the best hitting staffs - Minnesota and Colorado - and the worst hitting staffs - Boston and Oakland - is large indeed. However, it's not nearly as the large as the difference between, say, Reed Johnson and Carlos Delgado. It's roughly equivalent to the difference between Reed Johnson and Vernon Wells (or, for that matter, the difference between Vernon Wells and Carlos Delgado. Vernon, off 2004, is roughly right in the middle between Sparky and Carlos.)
Now that is indeed a huge difference over the course of 650 plate appearances - it amounts to roughly 20 - 25 runs a year, and that's enough to make a tangible difference in the W/L column.
But not even NL staffs send their pitchers up to hit anywhere near that many times, and AL pitching staffs, as a unit, seldom make as many as 30 plate appearances in a season. The difference between the best hitting staff in the AL and the worst is, at best, more like two runs. Over the course of the entire AL season.
Ah, but that isn't the main thing most teams want their pitchers to do when they wield the lumber. If they can manage to get a bunt down when needed, we'll take that. Won't we?
I guess. Do NL staffs succeed at getting the sac hit more regularly than AL staffs? It's hard to know for sure, because it's very difficult to figure out how often they were asked to bunt. Well, we know it would be every time there's a runner on first or second and less than two outs - it's just hard to know how often that circumstance arose. At least it's hard to know without doing way more work than I feel like doing.
What we can figure out is how many sac hits each team's staff had per plate appearance. So here's another pretty table:
Team Pl App SH SH/PlApp Atlanta 3076 349 0.113 Boston 169 19 0.112 Seattle 186 21 0.113 Chicago Cubs 3039 331 0.109 Philadelphia 2829 302 0.107 Los Angeles 2966 321 0.108 San Francisco 3166 336 0.106 Houston 3066 326 0.106 Pittsburgh 2876 299 0.104 Washington 2886 301 0.104 Cincinnati 2788 291 0.104 Chicago White Sox 170 17 0.100 New York Mets 2864 270 0.094 Colorado 2990 281 0.094 Milwaukee 2534 237 0.094 New York Yankees 193 18 0.093 St.Louis 3057 265 0.087 Arizona 2594 222 0.086 Cleveland 188 16 0.085 San Diego 2882 222 0.077 Anaheim 172 13 0.076 Texas 170 13 0.076 Florida 2882 220 0.076 Kansas City 172 13 0.076 Minnesota 166 11 0.066 Baltimore 172 11 0.064 Oakland 167 10 0.060 Tampa Bay 146 8 0.055 Detroit 169 9 0.053 Toronto 186 9 0.048Assuming that this is indicative of anything, the AL staff with the most sac hits are getting bunts down just as regularly as the best NL staffs. And this is about twice as often as the worst. But still - the difference for the AL teams is roughly one successful sac bunt each year - a difference of one or, maybe, two bases gained.
There is roughly one thing that does seem to be suggested by both tables. More or less half the AL pitching staffs swing the bats with about the same general level of mind-numbing incompetence as their NL counterparts. And the other half is even worse, busily plumbing new depths of non-performance.
These guys suck. Pretty well all of them. Even Mike Hampton sucks, when you get him out of Coors Field. (Two years and 143 AB at Coors: .315 with 10 HR. The rest of his career, in 496 AB: .218 with 4 HR.) He's Ken Huckaby with a little more power.
It just doesn't matter.
