Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Surprise, Surprise, Surprise

What I want
I want now
and it's a whole lot more
than 'anyhow'

Standings as of May 16th, 2005

1. Baltimore    30-19 .612         (6-6 2WK)
2. Boston       27-22 .551  3.0 GB (5-7 2WK)
3. Toronto      27-23 .540  3.5 GB (7-5 2WK)
3. New York     27-23 .500  3.5 GB (8-4 2WK)
5. Tampa Bay    19-32 .373 12.0 GB (5-7 2WK)

Each team in the division played around .500 ball for the last two weeks, except the Yankees who were 8-4, but looked horrible during one of those losses.

Ten Pleasant Surprises

1. Brian Roberts - 2B, BAL

This one is rather obvious. After the first two months of last year, Roberts had the following line:

193 AB 33 R 1 HR 14 RBI 18 SB .270/.337/.364

Those are not bad numbers for a second baseman, but they're nowhere near the numbers he has this year:

195 AB 38 R 11 HR 33 RBI 13 SB .374/.458/.656

By pretty much every advanced metric out there Roberts has been the most valuable position player in the American league this season. While it's doubtful he'll continue to hit .374, he'll still end the season with terrific stats even if he hits at his 2004 level for the rest of the year. If the Orioles started the season with a replacement-level second sacker, they'd probably be in fourth right now. That's how valuable Roberts has been.

2. Bruce Chen - SP, BAL

You could make decent arguments for B.J. Ryan or Canada's Erik Bedard, but Bruce Chen has impressed me the most this season. After playing for everyone from the Montreal Expos to the Weldon Fightin' Whippets in the last few years, Chen has found success in Baltimore. His 5-2 record is not undeserved when you consider his 46/18 strikeout/walk ratio or his 3.46 ERA. Sure his 8 homeruns is Wasdinesque, but hey, it's Bruce Chen we're talking about here!

3. Pete Walker - RP, TOR

Last year Walker played for Yokohama of the Japanese Central League, which is about AAA quality. To put it mildly, Walker got his head kicked in by a steel-toe boot (I mean performance wise, not literally). He comes back to Toronto this season with an outside chance of making it on the big league roster out of Spring Training. Instead of spending the year in AAA, he's pitched in 25 1/3 innings over 10 games and put up a 1.42 ERA. There's no way that's going to last, so let's enjoy the moment.

4. Tino Martinez - 1B, NYY

Here are Tino's slugging percentages by year since 1999:

Slugging %

1999: .458
2000: .422
2001: .501
2002: .438
2003: .429
2004: .461
2005: .561

Honestly, I can't explain it, other than sample size. This isn't a batting average related fluke either, as Tino's .258 average this season is lower than it has been in any of the seasons on this list (except for 2000, when he also hit .258). The increased slugging is coming solely from homeruns, as Tino has all of 4 doubles and no triples this season. After hitting 21, 15, and 23 homeruns in the last three seasons respectively, Tino already has 12 in 2005. I'd be enjoying his season more if he weren't a Yankee, but hey, at least they're not in first.

5. Scott Kazmir - SP, TAM

Sure he's a hot-shot prospect, and sure he has only a 2-4 record. But other than giving up a few too many walks (30), he's pitched pretty well. Plus he's only 21 and he has to play for Tampa. It kind of reminds me of when Mats Sundin was a rookie for the 1990-91 Quebec Nordiques. Hey, maybe Tampa will trade him to Toronto for the Jays version of Wendel Clark. Who do the Jays have that you could compare to Wendel? I'm drawing a blank here.

6. Josh Phelps - DH, TAM

I'm cheating here a bit, since there are a few other Devil Rays like Toby Hall, Alex Sanchez, and Damon Hollins who are arguably more deserving. But Phelps has been decent this season, hitting .279 with 5 homeruns in 140AB. Oddly enough he's been much better against righties than lefties this season, with an OPS of 855 vs. right and 631 vs. left. Repeat after me: Sample size, sample size, sample size.

7. Eric Hinske - 1B, TOR

To see how much better Hinske has played since his move over to 1B, all you need to do is examine the change in his rate stats:

Batting Average: Up 40 points
On-Base Percentage: Up 44 points
Slugging: Up 97 points

Like everyone else on this list, only time will tell if these changes are permanent or temporary. The fact that most of this improvement can be attributed to the rise in batting average does not leave me overly optimistic.

8. Trot Nixon - RF, BOS

Last year Trot Nixon only played 48 games, though he performed well in those games, hitting .315 with 6 homeruns. His stats this year are about the same, as he's hitting .316 with 7 homeruns in 42 games. The only major difference is the number of walks he's collected, 24, which is 9 more than last year. If Nixon can stay healthy for the whole season, he'll have a good chance of winning the Comeback Player of the Year award.

9. Mike Timlin - RP, BOS

Again, a bit of a stretch; it's not as if Timlin had been bad for the last few years. But a 1.52 ERA with 12 holds in 2 months is impressive for anyone, let alone a 39-year old. Yes, 39. I can sense everyone feeling old from here.

10. Chien Ming Wang - SP, NYA

Finding a Yankee pitcher who has overachieved, is, well, a bit difficult. Ming has been steady for the Yankees, though, with a 3-1 record and a 4.06 ERA. His 14/8 K/BB ratio does not portend well for future success, but on the bright side he hasn't allowed a homerun in the 37 2/3rds innings he's pitched. He's like the Anti-Bush. I mean, David, not some U.S. politician guy.

Questions of the Day

1. Who isn't on this list who should be?

2. Who is on this list who shouldn't be?

Posted by Pepper Moffatt on Monday, May 30 2005 @ 02:55 PM EDT.

Surprise, Surprise, Surprise | 22 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Mick Doherty - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#118141) #

Interesting speculation the other day from ESPN braodcasters on Tino's big bounceback ... appearntly Donnie Baseball The Batting Coach pointed out a hitch in his swing that he'd developed after leaving the lety-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium for the somewhat larger pastures of St. Loo and while playing for St. Lou of Tampa.

He's back in NYC, has resurrected the swing that produced 44 homers, most of them to left field, a few years back, and while he probably won't keep it up, it does sorta make sense.

Joel - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#118144) #

I'm sure it was too early to put him on the list, but for his bat alone Aaron Hill has been amazing. You might expect a hot hitting rookie to collect a two run triple by accident in his first at bat, but to see how often he has knocked in guys in scoring position now, you have to be amazed.

At least his first 9 games were at the Rog for all of us to see.

Mike Green - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#118146) #

Subjectively, I have been impressed with Hinske although I was definitely a skeptic going into the year. Moffatt is right, though. Hinske's BABIP of .356, with an average number of line drives, average power, and average speed, will be difficult to maintaion.

A statistical note on Roberts. His .403 BABIP looks otherworldly until you see that he's got a 32% line drive rate, roughly double the league average. Every year there's somebody who makes a big leap forward, and it sure looks like Roberts is your man for 2005.

Brett - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#118147) #

Rafael Palmeiro appears to have discovered a new magic elixir. He had a .622 OPS in April, but in May has hit six homers with a 1.009 OPS.

There's no way that's going to last, so let's enjoy the moment.

I was thinking the exact same thing after Aaron Hill's third hit yesterday. It can't last, but it sure is fun.

Gwyn - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#118148) #

Jay Gibbons (.261/.309/.523) probably doesn't deserve to be on the list, but is worth an honourable mention.

Flex - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#118150) #

Apparently Roberts has been using some new kind of contact lens that focuses light in a whole new way and is designed for athletes to help them see moving objects. That would explain the huge jump in line drives, he's making better contact becasue he's seeing the ball better.

And maybe Palmeiro has suddenly started wearing the same lenses. If so, expect the trend to continue...

Mike Green - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#118153) #

Aha, another performing-enhancing device! What will they think of next.

Seriously, it makes a lot of sense. Exquisite vision is definitely a big part of hitting, and a device that improves vision so that the baseball appears in the hitter's sight cleanly is bound to help.

Flex - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#118155) #

For those who are curious, here's an excerpt on the lens story from FOXSports.com, which ran about a month ago:

"Brian Roberts first tried on his newfangled contact lenses about an hour before the Orioles' last spring training game in Florida. He ripped three hits on a day his teammates groused about the difficulties of seeing the ball in the bright sun shining from a cloudless sky. ...

"They're almost like wearing sunglasses without wearing sunglasses," Roberts says. "I could tell such a huge difference right away that I was willing to give them a shot." Seven years in the making by Nike and Bausch & Lomb, the lenses � which will be known in the retail world as MaxSight � are so new they have made their way only into a few major league clubhouses so far."

I think this is going to wind up being a pretty big deal.

R Billie - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#118156) #

I've heard these contact lenses are akin to upgrading to high definition TV. You can clearly focus on each individual blade of grass on the infield. You see the spin of the stiches on the ball much more readily as it leaves the pitcher's hand.

This isn't against the rule in any way but if it really works then clearly this is an advantage that sooner or later pretty much every hitter will have. Maybe Vernon should invest in some to see if it ups his line drive rate to 32%. He would be some kind of scary hitter at that point.

Flex - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#118159) #

Players who aren't used to wearing anything in their eyes are going to resist them for a while, but given the effect they've had on Roberts, I think you'd have to be crazy as a hitter not to give them a try. Tennis players too.

Flex - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#118161) #

Sorry to hijack the thread with this lens stuff, but it has some news value -- I just found this on a website devoted to the contact lens industry, posted yesterday:

"The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has cleared for market distribution the Nike MAXSIGHT (polymacon) Sport-Tinted Contact Lens by Bausch & Lomb. According to the company, the lens uses patented Light Architecture optics to selectively filter specific wavelengths of light within the visible spectrum to enhance key visual elements such as a ball or background while reducing distracting sun glare during various outdoor sporting activities. Bausch & Lomb claims the technology enables the wearer to see a ball or selected objects with greater clarity than with the naked eye. Bausch & Lomb will manufacture the lens and market it to eye care professionals, and Nike, Inc. will be responsible for consumer marketing activities. Bausch & Lomb plans to introduce the Nike MAXSIGHT sport-tinted contact lens to eye care professionals at the American Optometric Association annual meeting in Dallas in June. The lens is scheduled for launch in the U.S. and Europe in late summer in two tints: gray-green, designed for sports played in bright sunlight such as golf, football, running and rugby; and amber, designed for fast-moving ball sports played in variable light such as soccer, tennis, baseball and softball."

David Goodwin - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#118162) #

Regarding Pepper's question of who the Jays have comparable to Wendel Clark, circa 1994 when Cliff Fletcher swapped him for Mats Sundin, I agree that there are very few options.

The player would have to be a homegrown talent, ideally of the first round variety (Clark went first overall to the Leafs in 1985 - remember the Ballard years anyone?). That narrows the field to Halladay, Wells, Rios, Gross, Adams, and Hill. I'd say we could include Hudson in the mix as well, though with reservations about his 43rd round selection. Wendel was through his 9th professional season when he was traded, coming off his best year with 76 regular season points and a second brilliant performance in the playoffs. I'd say this pretty much disqualifies Rios, Gross, Adams, and Hill, with far too little time in the bigs to date. Halladay has a Cy to his name, Vernon a Gold Glove, and Hudson has one waiting for him at the end of this season. Certainly enough success to warrant a comparison to Wendel, who despite his fan-favourite status was clearly not the team's best player (Gilmour). All three aforementioned Jays are popular enough to justify comparison as well, perhaps giving an edge to the O-Dog's charm.

If you're trying to find a trade most like Clark-Sundin that netted us Kazmir, I think it'd have to be Halladay. Pitcher for pitcher. Sundin was already through 4 professional seasons at that point though, so perhaps Kazmir hasn't really shown enough to warrant the glowing comparison.

Also, we shouldn't forget the the trade included 4 other players plus draft picks going both ways: Sundin, Garth Butcher, Todd Warriner in exchange for Clark, Sylvain Lefebvre, Landon Wilson. What other Rays and Jays would be involved in this hypothetical swap?

It's funny though, when trying to come up with the best comparison for Clark, after drawing a blank when thinking of Blue Jays the first player that came to mind was Sundin. He's now playing more of a punishing type game, somewhat along the lines of Wendel, and is universally regarded as the heart of the Leafs. Anyone else miss playoff hockey? Or at least miss all those crazy Flames Girls?

Mike Green - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#118163) #

Thanks, Flex. It's very interesting. I agree that after Roberts' success, other players will be trying the lenses very soon.

Joel - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#118164) #

Is it saying too much or too little, speaking of Halladay, that he appears to be right back in Cy Young form?

Considering what a bust last season was, it's nice to see him doing so well, although it isn't quite what I would describe as a pleasant surprise.

Magpie - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#118165) #

Hey, maybe Tampa will trade him to Toronto for the Jays version of Wendel Clark. Who do the Jays have that you could compare to Wendel?

Well, gosh. Clark was a fascinating player, a player with enormous strengths and equally enormous weaknesses. Those strengths, and the nature of his game, had great appeal for the more casual fan who was thus inclined to forgive (or completely overlook) the gaping flaws in his game.

So the baseball equivalent should be someone who does one thing quite well that average fans can focus on - say, be a .300 hitter - but without some of the complementary skills that would make him a truly valuable player (hit for power, get on base, play a key defensive position well.)

Oh my. Could we trade Shea Hillenbrand for Scott Kazmir?

Ducey - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#118167) #

Antoher AL East pleasant surprise is Russ Adams' defence. I am not much concerned about his bat coming around but was pretty worried about his Defence coming into the season.

He had 5 errors in 21 ML games last year along with 32 in AAA.

He has had 6 in 40 games this year. As he continues to improve he might finish with less than 20 this year and his range has been great.

best400 - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#118172) #

Guys, I hate to go off topic, but did anyone enjoy Darrin Fletchers commentary. His perspective and analysis is far more reaching towards the new blue jays audience. He also appeals to me far more then Tabler because of his time playing for the jays, recently. And his obvious bias is great, saying on the air that the jays would rally in the 9th inning is a testament that he really likes the team. His enthusiasm should hopefully get sportsnet to consider him to call more games

BCMike - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#118174) #

I thought Fletcher was pretty brutal. At first it was a nice change... but after a few innings, let's just say he needs some work in the minors. Some of his insight was great(especially the throwing at a batter who sneaks a peak back), but overall his homerism was embarrasing, he wasn't very smooth, and like most rookies he talks too much.

I can forgive the lack of 'smoothness' since he doesn't have much experience, but the blatant homerism has got to go.

uglyone - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#118176) #

pleasant surprises? you may have left out the best one....

R.Johnson: 109ab, 3hr, 20rbi, .312/.390/.505/.895

and, what's more intriguing...his split vs. RHP...

59ab, 2hr, 11rbi, .288/.373/.475/.848

if that ain't a sample size anomaly, then we may have something to get excited about here. (as for sample size, if we're including guys like Phelps and Nixon, there's no reason not to include Reed).

Zauner probably deserves an honorable mention as well, IMO.

Craig B - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#118189) #

I actually enjoyed Fletcher yesterday. He grated on my on Saturday for some reason, but yesterday I was enjoying what he was doing. I'll reserve judgment on him for a couple of games.

The best Fletcher moment was when he was talking to Doc after the game yesterday and when he wished him good luck at the end, Doc told him if he was thinking of making a comeback to give the Jays a call. Gee, I wonder what Doc thinks of the catching situation?

Pat Tabler's been doing good work in my book this season. With far fewer TSN games in June (thank God for that - Rod Black must die sooner or later) it's shaping up to be an OK month of Jays TV.

sweat - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#118193) #

I have never really had a problem with blatant homerism, unless that includes exaggerating a players skill level. If Fletcher or Tabler of Campbell want to pull for Russ Adams to drive in some runs I'm all for it.

mathesond - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#118199) #

I thought it was funny during Friday's broadcast, when Jamie was talking about how terrible the homer-centric White Sox announcers were. He asked Darrin if he knew of Hawk and DJ, and Flethcer replied that they were great broadcasters.

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