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With the loss David Bush remains winless on the season, with his record falling to 0-5. Or as Spencer Fordin describes it:
    Where's the breaking point? Dave Bush's first win remained elusive Saturday, when he sunk the Blue Jays to an early deficit and an eventual 4-3 loss against Minnesota.

    "I'm frustrated, but I think everybody is. It's not just me," he said after the game. "If I pitch well, I'll get wins. They're not coming for me at all right now, but the best thing I can do is keep the same routine and keep going out there. If I could have a pitch back today, it might've been a different game. That's kind of the way it's been going."

    Bush remains the only winless pitcher in Toronto's rotation, and he has more than twice as many no-decisions (five) as the next nearest pitcher. The troubling statistics don't end there. After completing five innings in five of his first six outings, the right-hander has been unable to make it that far in three of his last four starts.

I wanted to dig deeper into Bush's stats, to see how other pitchers with similar statistics have fared. Here are Bush's important stats as they relate to DIPS:

Dave Bush

10GS 53.1IP 10HR 10BB 26K

It's going to be tough to find a pitcher who has struck out only 26 in batters in 50+ innings this year - those numbers are positively Rueteresque. Here's as close as I could come:

Ten Starters Who Haven't Been Striking Out Many Batters

 1. Kenny Rogers   - 10GS 69.1IP  1HR 22BB 23K 6-2
 2. Ryan Franklin  -  9GS 62.2IP 11HR 24BB 26K 2-6
 3. Brian Lawrence - 10GS 61.2IP  6HR 14BB 29K 3-5
 4. Ryan Drese     - 10GS 60.2IP  4HR 23BB 16K 4-4
 5. Carlos Silva   -  8GS 60.0IP  5HR  2BB 21K 3-2
 6. Aaron Sele     - 10GS 57.1IP  5HR 25BB 25K 4-4
 7. Jose Lima      - 11GS 55.1IP 15HR 25BB 25K 0-4
 8. Russ Ortiz     - 10GS 55.1IP  8HR 31BB 23K 4-3
 9. Mike Hampton   -  8GS 55.0IP  4HR 15BB 21K 4-1
10. Joe Mays       -  8GS 53.1IP  9HR 12BB 18K 3-1
AVERAGE            -  9GS 59.1IP  7HR 19BB 23K 3-3
Bush               - 10GS 53.1IP 10HR 10BB 26K 0-5
I probably should have tried to find guys who had pitched about the same number of innings as Bush, but no matter. Anyhow, it's clear that Bush is pitch at about the same level as these guys, with more strikeouts and less walks, but also a little more prone to the longball. Also, Bush hasn't been lasting as long into games as our group of 10, but that's likely because Bush's arm is being protected by the club somewhat. Anyhow, the average pitcher in these group is currently 3-3 on the season, whereas Bush is 0-5. I don't think it's very controversial to suggest that Bush has been somewhat unlucky.

Questions of the Day

1. If Bush was 3-3 instead of 0-5, would anybody be calling for him to be sent down the minors, as was suggested yesterday?

2. If you sent Bush to the minors, who would you bring up in his place?

Twins 4 - Blue Jays 3 | 23 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#117996) #
Bush is not pitching the way he can, but he's not really hurting the ballclub. The won-loss record is not indicative of his performance, and Gibby undoubtedly realizes that. He'll keep getting the ball.
mathesond - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#117997) #
I think if Bush was 3-3, people would look at him the way they looked at Towers in '03 and '04 - occasionally competent, but nothing special until you factored in his age.
Magpie - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#117998) #
Bush was optioned to Syracuse this morning. Chaud Gaudin replaces him.

I think this is nuts on a number of levels, and when I get home tonight I may have a word or two to say...

PeterG - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#117999) #
It could only be a matter of time before Bush is traded as several teams were interested in him during the off season. Packaged with Gabe Gross, he might fetch a power hitter who could patrol left field.
Lefty - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#118000) #
Where did you find this transaction? It hasn't been posted at the usual sources yet?
Gerry - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#118001) #
I have not seen Bush pitch a lot this year but he looks like a pitcher who is not commanding all of his pitches. Bush has to be able to throw strikes with all of his pitches to be successful and I did not see that yesterday. I checked Bush's stats vs Towers and Bush is 20 poinyts higher on OBP and 40 higher on SLG. I think three or four starts in AAA will get him back on track.

Matgpie, do you have access to type of pitches and strike percentage from yesterdays start? It would be like this:

FB 50 pitches; 35 K's
CB 25 pitches, etc.......
Gwyn - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#118002) #
Lefty, I haven't seen it anywhere on the web either, they're talking about it on The Fan right now though.
Rob - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#118003) #
Dave Bush's demotion can be found at TSN.ca. I don't get it at all. If he was sent down because he was "too emotional" after being removed from yesterday's game, it's a terrible move.
Dave Till - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#118004) #
Jerry Howarth mentioned yesterday that Bush wasn't getting his curve ball over at all. Perhaps that's why he's being demoted: at least, I hope it's something like that, and not because of any personality differences between him and Gibbons.
Lefty - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#118005) #
Q. 1)If Bush were 3-3 there would be no problem as there should be with the 0-5 record. His team is equally responsible for his record.

Bush is just a step away from being a quality starting pitcher. One who had proven himself through the developemental stages of his career.

Though I don't condemn the move to the minors I do have to wonder what the team is thinking. If I were to guess, Bush should have minded his P's & Q's on the mound yesterday.
Rob - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#118006) #
Gibbons was just on the FAN with Jerry Howarth and he said, among other things, Bush was sent down because there's not as much pressure in AAA, he needs to get his curveball back, and he's not locating his fastball well.

About yesterday: "No hard feelings...lots of worse things happen in this sport than that right there. When he's back up and doing well later on, we won't remember these days."
Ron - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#118007) #
Despite JP saying yesterday's heated exchange had nothing to do with the demotion, I gotta believe it made the decision a lot easier. Bush showed up the skipper and now he's down in AAA.

It will be interesting if Gaudin performs (assuming he's the replacement in the rotation) at a high level and everybody else in the rotation does well. I wonder where Bush will fit back in.

Jordan - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#118008) #
I really, really dislike this move. Outside of three starts against the Red Sox, Bush has been extremely solid. He got no help from his defence yesterday, but that apparently counts against him. I'm glad he was angry when he got yanked -- that's what I want to see in a young pitcher, an unwillingness to back down and a competitive fire. I hope he's angry on this flight to Syracuse.

Bush has nothing left to prove at Triple-A -- he knows he can get those guys out. Hell, he knows he can get major-league hitters out. You don't send a rookie starter to the minors because he's having trouble getting his curveball over now and again. At worst, you send him to the bullpen to work it out -- and it's not like Bush has been getting shelled. he's pitching exactly as well as a young starter should, taking his lumps and learning from experience. This move serves neither the short-term nor the long-term interests of the ballclub. I simply don't understand it.

Oh, and here's a note for the front office: sending a young player down to Syracuse hasn't exactly worked wonders lately. Adam Peterson went down last season and cratered. Brandon League went down this year and is getting worse by the day. Gabe Gross went down after a week and still hasn't recovered. I'll lay even money that Bush is going to struggle once he arrives -- as far as he knows, he's on the outs with the organization and can't afford to make any more mistakes. I can't wait till Russ Adams gets sent down to "build up his confidence." All the other young Blue Jays have to be wondering today exactly how short their leash is.

I've disagreed with any number of moves made by the Blue Jays, to a greater or lesser extent, and I'm far from perfect in my assessments. But only twice has this team done something to make me fundamentally question the leadership. The first was the Catalanotto extension, which looked bad then and looks no better today, especially considering the impact on Gross. The other is this demotion of Dave Bush, a guy who needs to start 35 games in Toronto this year in order to be part of a contending team in 2006.

And by the way, I don't much like summoning Gaudin either. He'll presumably be plugged into the rotation, and I don't think he's going to handle the transition very well. He should have spent all year in Syracuse refining his stuff.

Many more moves like this and the question won't be when the Blue Jays will contend for the AL East title, but if.
Mick Doherty - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#118014) #
If this is a sign that the Jay brass has soured on Bush as a whole -- and I'm not saying they have, necessarily -- you'd think there'd be some smart GM out there who'd swoop in with a knock-em-dead offer. You Jay fans still want Erubiel Durazo? Or maybe Bush can center a package for young Mr. Dunn in Cincinnati?
Paul D - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#118017) #
Or maybe Bush can center a package for young Mr. Dunn in Cincinnati?

I would do this in a second. Bush, League, Gross, Neron... I'd make an offer attractive package for Dunn.

Keith Talent - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#118020) #
Demoting to the bullpen doesn't do much good to anyone. Then Bush would just become the forgotten man, not get to work on anything, and just take up a roster spot. Better he get some starts and work it out. And if these guys aren't mature enough to stand a trip to the minors and re-prove themselves, then I have to question whether they belong in the Majors.

You don't keep a guy in the Majors because you fear a trip to the minors would hurt his feelings. You want to hurt their feelings and have them battle back. You want them angry and driven, to prove you wrong. C'mon, show us what you got!

If Gross and those in the other examples can only mope in AAA, that's where they forever belong.
Eric Purdy - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#118024) #
"Or maybe Bush can center a package for young Mr. Dunn in Cincinnati?"

I think you're severely overestimating the worth of David Bush.
costanza - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#118029) #
There's got to be a Bush-"Chad" joke in there somewhere, no? Okay, I guess it wouldn't exactly be the most timely reference...
Mick Doherty - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#118038) #
I think you're severely overestimating the worth of David Bush.

Not at all. Thus the "package" reference, sir.

Eric Purdy - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#118041) #
"Not at all. Thus the "package" reference, sir."

Yeah, but saying he'd center the deal suggests Bush would be the best talent in the trade. I like David fine, but if you can't get a potential future 1/2 type starter in an Adam Dunn package you don't have any place as a major league GM.
CaramonLS - Sunday, May 29 2005 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#118048) #
Geez were you guys just reading Doomsday books or something?

Unless Gaudin is absolutely amazing, I see this as nothing more than a short term move to help him get his control back. ERA vs. non sox teams blah blah blah, hes not pitching like David Bush can pitch.

Hopefully he can find whatever he has lost and be back up to the Jays in a few weeks - this will give him the reps he needs.
NYJaysFan36 - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#118091) #
Am I the only one who isn't eager to see what Gaudin can do at this level after dominating AAA for the last 2 months?

In 10 starts, he's posted a 2.48 ERA with a 47-14 K-BB ratio. His WHIP is 1.04.

AAA is the appropriate place for Bush to work on his stuff. The Jays are in a 3-way tie with Boston and New York right now. Only 3 behind a falling Oriole team. Now's not the time to worry about people's feelings as Keith alluded to.
NYJaysFan36 - Monday, May 30 2005 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#118092) #
not 'isn't'. Is. But I think you could tell my position based on the rest of the post.
Twins 4 - Blue Jays 3 | 23 comments | Create New Account
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