Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Our own Gitz warned us that Lilly would break our hearts. (He also said, with reference to 2004, that "At worst, the Jays will do what they did [in 2003]." But it's well-established that Gitz is a far better writer than he is a psychic.) Lilly certain did that in the early going, missing almost all of spring training (like last season) and then really stinking up the joint for the first few games (the joint was only slightly malodourous in the early going last season). Just when everyone was ready to write him off, he goes and figures it out, reeling off 6 innings of 5-hit, 1-run ball against the Nationals, and then 6 2/3 innings of 4-hit, 1-run ball against the Bloody Foot Garments.

I guess the lesson is "Never say never." Or maybe it's "Lilly will break your heart." Either way.



Lilly pitched like — well, Lilly circa 2004: a few walks, several strikeouts, more fly balls than ground, and around 6 innnings pitched. While it looks like he's starting to work out whatever problems (and they've seemed substantial) he's had in the early going, even he admits he still doesn't have his good curve. It showed in the early going, with several curves left hanging; even when he figured it out last night, his curve still seemed almost too big. He definitely had confidence in his breaking stuff, though, throwing big curves back-to-back, but it wasn't my impression that he threw it more deep in the count. (Maybe some of my more observant fellow Roster members can help me out here.)

In case Robert Dudek has forgotten it, I'd like to draw everyone's attention to .380 OBP, .857 OPS, .290 GPA Shea Hillenbrand. He went hitless last night, but he continues to be one of the most surprising stories of the 2005 season. Last night I watched someone who by all accounts was a poor defender perform feats at third base that would have made Koskie smile (if he wasn't having surgery on his thumb). Maybe it was slow runners or maybe it was pure luck, but last night's version of the Shea-hey kid wasn't just an adequate fill-in at the hot corner, he was a great third baseman. It really struck me how much better the Jays are defensively with Hinske at first, where his talents are more naturally suited, and a (for now) merry-go-round of really good third basemen across the diamond. I don't want to jinx him (even though I'll do it anyway), but I think Ricciardi is going to look like a genius at the end of the season for picking up Hillenbrand.

Of course, for every winner there must, by definition, be a loser. In this case, the Red Sox are losers. (Didn't feel as good as I'd thought to write that particular phrase. I'll try it again. "The Red Sox are losers." Ah, that's it. Just took some practice.) If you believe what you read on the Internet — and of course you should: it's the Internet! It wouldn't lie! — the sky is falling in Red Sox nation. Here are some choice quotes from Sons of Sam Horn:

savage362 wrote:
Quote:
Since when did our team start sucking?
A couple days ago. I'm looking forward to a turn of events.
WayneHouseieHOF wrote:

The problem is that the way things are going there's a good chance only the Devil Rays will provide a buffer between us and the basement by, say, Saturday.
(Of course, WaynnHouseieHOF is correct. In fact, that could happen tomorrow, if the Jays beat Boston, and the Yankees win too.)

The simple fact remains that the Sox have lost two of their last three series (well - better make that three of four; thanks, Lilly), and therefore have lost any chance at the postseason. Seem reasonable? I thought so. It's absolutely impossible to have a month, say, 14 games over .500, after all.

fox13weather wrote:

the toughest thing about following a 162 game schedule is not getting too down over the crappy times and not getting too up when things are going well. A few weeks ago the MFY looked like charter members of AARP. Now look. It is a looooong season with lots of ups and downs. The big thing is being close and healthy after the all star break.

The Jays finally made it back to 4 games over .500, breaking their cycle to and from .500 and 3 games over. Nothing's to say that they'll make it to 5 over, for (*ahem*) the first time this season, but if they do, can we officially say that the Jays will outperform their (very pessimistic) pre-season naysayers' predictions? Alright, so nothing's for certain until the games are played, but who isn't jazzed up about the team after the start they've had? The Rogers Centre's makeover makes the place a much better place to watch baseball, the pitching and defense have been good or great (especially lately) — even the crowds at the ballpark are more enthusiastic than ever before. (I think that has a lot to do with the relative dearth of boings, and "CHARGE!" calls, and Addams family theme claps. I'm willing to bet that, without the loud sound system as a fallback, people find themselves compelled to be louder.) I love it!

Jays 6, Red Sox 1: Red Sox Bleached Lilly-White | 31 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Jordan - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 08:52 AM EDT (#117730) #
It might actually be a good thing when Lilly doesn't have his good curveball -- it forces him to throw his fastball more, and his heater is better than he seems to think it is.

I don't have the statistical chops (or the time) to do this, but I'd love to see a comparison of the Jays' defence from 2004 to 2005. I'll bet it's improved significantly, and that the pitching staff's success (while also owing much to Brad Arnsberg) can be traced partly to a better homefield surface and more reliable defence all the way around. As much as last year's injuries ruined the offence, they devastated the defence. Dave Berg, second base? Reed Johnson, centerfield? Howie Clark, right field? Frank Menechino, 47 infield starts?

I've always thought that good defence is more "contagious" than good hitting, and that fielders are inspired to excel when they see their teammates at other positions flashing the leather. When Gabe Gross eventually replaces Frank Catalanotto full-time in left field, this will be one of the better defensive teams the Jays have produced in recent years, with the promise of more improvement as the young guys learn their craft.
Jim - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#117732) #
It's quite annoying that the guy who went through the trouble to make Wayne Housie his handle on SOSH ended up spelling his name wrong.

I have and always will hate the Red Sox, but I did like Wayne Housie and Bob Zupcic from their minor league days.
Magpie - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#117733) #
I've always thought that good defence is more "contagious" than good hitting

It also has a wonderfully positive impact on the psyche of the pitchers. They don't start thinking they have to make perfect pitches every time and get the hitters out all by themselves.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#117736) #

The team defence has been much better this year than last for many reasons- Hinske's move from third to first, the better defensive bench, the acclimatization of Rios. Here is a Win Shares "treemap". The Jays defence has been as good as anyone's, save for the White Sox, by this measure and by DER.

Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#117737) #
I haven't forgotten my bet with NFH. :)

A couple of great games. I still don't think this is a hugely talente team, but I've been pleasantly surprised by their hustle, grit, and determination. They're a lot of fun to watch!
daryn - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#117740) #
Last time I checked my "Optimism Thermometer" appears to have been Sept 03/04
I rated the my sense of the Jays future wins to be
2004-67 Wins, 2005-70, and 2006-80 (I stand by my words)

the results to date are
2004- 67 Wins, (not hard to get close with one month to go) an a .543 record this year (pace for 88 Wins)

I don't think the Jays will achieve 88 wins, too many games to play against the Yanks and BoSox

however I also see that to finish with 70 wins, the jays would have to play 380 ball the rest of the season, and my gut tells me that 500 is possible.

also I like Hill, and I think Bush and Chacin are still going up, and that no one critical is coming down, (well, Hinske maybe)

so, I guess my "Optimism Thermometer" on the rise....
For the sake of numbers I'll say
2005 - 82 wins, 2006 - 88 wins, and in 2007 [unless the Yankees completely re-tool], 90 wins



Jacko - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#117742) #
It's awfully nice having the depth to replace someone like Koskie without skipping a beat. Hill's seamless conversion to 3B has been quite amazing. He's got quick reactions and a strong, accurate arm. The fact that he's locked in at the place as well is just gravy.

I'm not sure what will happen when Koskie returns, but it's a nice problem to have.
Jacko - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#117743) #
2006-2008 going to be the golden age.

The Jays have an embarassment of pitching riches that are going to be coming to the show soon:

Gaudin (AAA)
Rosario (AAA)
League (AAA)
McGowan (TJ recovery, but in AAA soon?)
Marcum (AA)
Banks (AA)
Vermilyea (AA)
Perkins (AA)
Jackson (A)
Purcey (A)

It's not surprising that JP and friends are going to concentrate on getting some bats in this year's draft!
Dave Till - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#117744) #
My $.02 on Lilly: I think that somebody, maybe Arnsberg, told him that his fastball was good enough to get major league hitters out without his having to get too fancy with it. In his second-last start, he was still having trouble, at least at the outset, with everything other than his fastball. But he was locating his fastball - and, sure enough, major league hitters weren't hitting it. This gave him confidence. After that, he slipped back into his 2004 groove.

As for the future:

- The Jays have a whole lot of quality arms coming up.
- Most of those arms won't make it. A few will.
- The Jays will have more pitching talent than they'll have room for. (Even now, they have eight pitchers good enough to pitch in many, if not all, starting rotations - Gaudin, Rosario and Walker would be good enough to start for many teams, and there are a few teams for whom Justin Miller would be a step up.)
- The Jays need bats.
- It's easier to trade arms for bats than the other way around.
- Pitchers function best with a good defense behind them - and, lo and behold, the Jays have good defense. Was this part of J.P.'s Grand Plan all along?
- The Jays will have to do something soon, as it won't be long before the 40-man roster is overfull. If the Jays don't trade some of their surplus, they'll lose it in the Rule V draft. (If the Yankees are willing to claim Eric Crozier, what would teams do when given the opportunity to snap up a real live prospect?)

As for Hill: wow, so far, so good. I'd like to wait and see what happens when pitchers discover his weak spots and/or start throwing him more breaking pitches. (Recall what happened to Josh Phelps: two years ago, he was hitting monster home runs and getting himself on the cover of BP. Now, he's in Tampa Bay.) But, unlike Adams and Gross, Hill seems to have star potential: the ball jumps off his bat, he runs faster than just about anybody on the team, and he has a great throwing arm. There's lots worse problems than having a logjam of available talent.
dp - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#117745) #
In case Robert Dudek has forgotten it, I'd like to draw everyone's attention to .380 OBP, .857 OPS, .290 GPA Shea Hillenbrand.

Shea has been good so far. But here's the problem- he's been slumping this month, and when he slumping, because he doesn't walk at all, he has little value. His numbers right now are .328/.372/.467, and he really has to keep hitting around .330 to keep his value. Although it's a good sign to me that he's walked 5 times in May while hitting .250 and slugging .388.

Great to see Lilly back to normal- really a horrid breakdown, totally unexpected. Hopefully Adams is back on track after the 2 doubles last night- the Jays middle infield logjam will cease to be if he keeps hitting .220.

Our old friend Felipe Lopez is hitting .307/.375/.561 for the Reds, and former Jay SS Cesar Izturis is at .349/.393/.427. Chris Woodward is even hitting .296/.346/.447, although he's been playing RF because the Mets are idiots. So the '90s Jays populated the majors with good outfielders, the '00s Jays do it with shortstops...
Pistol - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#117747) #
I agree with all those points that Dave makes. It'll be interesting to see the moves the Jays make over the next year or two.

And if anyone wants an addicting game, try this:

http://www.batgirlrules.com/clearthebases.php - 1:57 baby!
Dave Till - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#117748) #
1:50!!
MatO - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#117749) #
You can add Arnold and Isenberg back onto the pitching prospects list. They've earned it this year. Davis Romero, since he started relieving, maybe too. Barring a trade, I can't see another hitter being added to the 40 man this year. In fact I see Tablado and Negron coming off unless they have a hell of a second half. So that might free up some space for the pitchers. Another problem may be options for some of the pitchers.
Jordan - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#117750) #
1:44.

It'd be easier if the Twins had fewer pasty-skinned players with scraggly beards.
Stellers Jay - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#117751) #
Options are definitely going to be an issue as early as next spring. Griffin, Arnold, Gaudin, and I think Rosario will all need to make the team or be exposed to waivers. It's going to be important to see over the summer who can help this team in the near future and who can't. The good news is that it means the days of signing middling relievers to million dollar contracts are over now.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#117752) #
Definitely Davis Romero (and Isenberg). He was actually pretty good, notwithstanding the ugly ERA, prior to his return to the pen. Romero's actually a better prospect than Jason Arnold at this point, in my view.
Magpie - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#117757) #
Uh, how can I put this...2:45.

I hate everybody.

Look, I never, never play Minesweeper. That's what this reminded me of. I'm a FreeCell guy.

Jonny German - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#117758) #
1:38!

Though I must admit, I largely took a brute force and ignorance approach, relying on quick-clicking moreso than good short term memory.
Mike D - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#117760) #
1:40, though I had the advantage of late-night Advance Scout drafting.
uglyone - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#117766) #
I don't think the Jays will achieve 88 wins, too many games to play against the Yanks and BoSox

7-5 so far against those two, a third of the way through the sked against them. Last year we won I think 12 all year against those two (in 38 games).

no one critical is coming down, (well, Hinske maybe)

Hinske:

APR: 83ab, .289/.366/.482/.848

MAY: 63ab, .286/.361/.460/.821

Flex - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#117767) #
(ahem) 1:24
Dr. Zarco - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#117781) #

I'm a FreeCell guy.

Ah, this used to be me, big time. I once won 138 games in a row, and kept a clip of about 97% for over 2000 games. One word for this...LOSER! I'm out of it now, don't worry.

uglyone - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#117782) #
As of today, the Jays have played 23 of their 46 games this year (i.e. 1/2, half, 50%) against teams with a winning percentage of over .550.

In other words, half of their games against the better teams in baseball.

They're 10-13 so far in these games.

They have four more in a row right now against two of these teams in Boston and Minnesota.

The Yankees, meanwhile, are one win away from getting their winning percentage up over .550.

By the end of the Minnesota series, there's a good chance that the Jays will have played 32 of their 50 games against these .550+ teams.

Which would be 64%. Which is pretty much 2/3.

So over the first 50 games, playing 2/3 of their schedule against the top 1/3 of the league, the Jays will have posted round about a .550 winning percentage themselves, and remain in the thick of things in the toughest division in baseball.

Not too shabby.

In fact, not shabby at all.

There exists no shabbiness in this whatsoever, to be perfectly honest.
Craig B - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#117789) #
1:26. Looks like I gotta shave off a couple of seconds.
Paul D - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#117791) #
Out of curiousity, has anyone read Bob Elliott's new book, The Northern Game, Baseball the Canadian Way?

http://www.chapters.indigo.ca/item.asp?Item=978189496340&Catalog=Books&N=35&Lang=en&Section=books&zxac=1

The fact that he had Don Cherry write the intro doesn't really appeal to me, but for the most part Elliott's a pretty solid writer.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#117804) #
Speaking of productive ex-Jays, Bobby Kielty has an OPS of .856 for Oakland. Only 98 AB, but still, not bad. At the moment, those trades seem to have benefitted everyone involved. Stewart has been a mainstay for the Twins, and Lilly has (mostly) been solid for Toronto.
Magpie - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#117805) #
I once won 138 games in a row

Gawd Almighty. I'm just trying to stay above 70 percent.

I'm not worthy to touch the hem of your garment, master...

James W - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#117807) #
First try was 1:22, and I thought I had done poorly.
Pistol - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#117808) #
Word on NESN is that Halladay had a good side session today and will start against the Twins on Sunday.
Mike D - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#117810) #
Dr. Prison Fence is reporting that because Bush had such a light outing on Tuesday, he'll probably get the ball on Saturday. Doc goes Sunday, and the rotation resumes with Lilly on Monday.
Dr. Zarco - Thursday, May 26 2005 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#117812) #
That's terrific news about Doc, I hope he's over it. Those silly obliques can be troublesome. Let's hope we never hear "Doc" and "oblique" in the same sentence again (unless it has the words "beaned someone in the" between them).
Jays 6, Red Sox 1: Red Sox Bleached Lilly-White | 31 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.