A tough loss for the Jays last night, one they might easily have won had a few breaks fallen their way. They hit the ball hard and put plenty of runners on base, but they just couldn’t break through against pretty fortunate Twins starter Kyle Lohse.
Lohse put an astounding 323 runners on base in fewer than 195 innings last season, yet somehow managed to win 9 games with an ERA in the low 5.00s. Judging from last night’s game, the secret of his success appears to be a bullet-dodging capacity worthy of Danny Rand.
The turning point of the game ended up being Alex Rios lining out hard to centerfield with the bases loaded to end the 4th inning for Toronto. Rios gave the pitch a ride to right-center, but nothing falls into the gap in Minnesota’s outfield, and the Twins took the lead for good in the bottom of the inning. Alex had 2 singles last night to raise his average to .321 and solidify his spot atop the batting order. Very soon, Rios is going to turn on and pull that kind of pitch from Lohse, and when that happens, pitchers will be lucky if Alex only hammers it off the wall for a double. (He had another assist from right field, too.) Put your ear close to Rios and you’ll hear the sound: tick, tick, tick….
Wasn’t it fun to see Shannon Stewart play left field for someone else last night? On Russ Adams’ foul pop fly to medium left field, Vernon Wells tagged up from third and headed home. Stewart’s throw wasn’t just short to the cutoff man, it was also off-line, and Wells scored easily. Whatever Frank Catalanotto’s shortcomings as an outfielder, being Shannon Stewart isn’t one of them.
Tell you what, though, you could see that popout coming: the previous two batters had singled hard off Lohse, and Adams came to the plate waggling the bat so hard you’d think he wanted to take his cuts from the on-deck circle. Adams, a rookie who’s only going to be as good as he remains patient, was champing at the bit to join the hit parade, and he hacked at the very first pitch he saw. The Jays got one run, but they might’ve gotten more for hard-luck complete-game loser Dave Bush.
There seems to be a sense in some quarters that Dave Bush has been one of the weak links in the Toronto rotation this year. After all, he’s following up a solid 5-4, 3.69 ERA in 16 rookie starts last season with a rather uglier 0-4, 4.73 mark in 8 starts so far this season. With Roy Halladay back to ace form and Josh Towers and Gus Chacin surprising everyone, Bush is often lumped together with Ted Lilly as the two starters on the wrong side of the tracks.
But I think that those overall season numbers don’t tell anything close to the whole story. Here’s Bush’s game log so far this season:
vs BOS: 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 K, 2 HR (G) at OAK: 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR (E) at BOS: 2 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HR (T) vs BAL: 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HR (E) at NYY: 7 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 4 K, 1 HR (E) vs CHI: 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K, 0 HR (G) vs KCR: 3+ IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 3 K, 0 HR (M) at MIN: 8 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 5 K, 2 HR (E)Out of 8 starts, there have been 4 downright Excellent ones, 2 Good ones, 1 Mediocre one and 1 Terrible one (his second game against Boston). For illustration’s sake, let’s subtract that one awful start against the Red Sox. With that change, Bush has allowed just 17 earned runs in 43 2/3 innings. That would actually give him a 3.51 ERA – better than what he posted in his 2004 rookie campaign.
And that’s not the only category in which Bush has otherwise improved.
Year BB/9 K/BB K/9 H/9 2004 2.31 2.86 5.90 8.76 2005 1.46 3.57 4.93 9.47His BB/9 has dropped from a small 2.31 in 2004 to a meager 1.46 in 2005; his K/BB has accordingly risen sharply from 2.86 to 3.57. His K/9, however, has declined by almost exactly one strikeout every 9 innings from ’04, down to 4.93 from 5.90.
So what’s the problem? It’s the extra-base hits: after allowing just 11 homers in 97 innings last season, Bush has already given up 8 in his first 45 frames this year. After yielding 16 doubles in 16 starts last year, he’s given up 12 two-baggers this year. Since Bush is still giving up about one hit per inning, more or less the same as last season, it would appear that the 1 batter per game Bush was whiffing last season has been tagging him for an XBH so far in this campaign.
We saw an example of that last night on Michael Cuddyer’s fourth-inning opposite-field blast, which turned out to be the game-winner. Bush had Cuddyer in the hole 0-2, but he left his next pitch up and out over the plate, and Cuddyer smacked it just over the fence. Bush is a control pitcher who’s always around the plate; so far this year, hitters have been getting excellent swings on just one key pitch per start and have been belting it. Bush is discovering just how thin is the margin of error at the big-league level. That said, there’s no reason to be concerned about Bush. He’s going through the usual adjustment period for young starters, and he’s handling it extremely well. As noted, if not for that one brutal start against the Red Sox, his ERA would be ahead of last year’s pace; if his teammates had scored as many runs for him as they have for Chacin, he’d have garnered his first victory of the season a while ago. Bush is doing very well for this adjustment period; if he can make a couple of small adjustments of his own to reduce his extra-base propensity, he’ll be even better throughout the balance of the season.
Roundup
MLB: Jays sacrifice Game 2 against Twins --> "It was a tough outcome, but I felt really good," Bush said. "I got some things figured out today. I have something to build on...."
MLB: Notes: Gibbons recalls playing days --> "Catcher Gregg Zaun, who was placed on the 15-day disabled list on May 9 because of a concussion, is scheduled for a rehabilitation assignment at Triple-A Syracuse on Saturday and Sunday."
SLAM: --> Not a good day for Yankee starters past and present, as Mike Mussina failed to hold a 4-0 lead in New York's first loss in 11 games, Andy Pettitte was roughed up by the Diamondbacks in a Houston defeat, and David Wells was pounded by Oakland in his first start in three weeks.
Yahoo: Bonds has IV removed, will start oral antibiotics for infected knee --> "San Francisco Giants slugger Barry Bonds had an IV removed Wednesday, but will need to keep taking oral antibiotics to fight an infection in his troublesome right knee. Bonds had been on intravenous antibiotics for two weeks after having a third surgery on his knee to clear out an infection."
The Hammer: Queen defects to Liberals --> "The Queen, who has traditionally steered clear of partisan politics (a notable exception being when she ran unsuccessfully for the Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru party in the 1983 British general election), insisted that she wasn't made any offers of a cabinet position by the Prime Minister, nor was she expecting to be named to the Martin cabinet. 'There's a lot of talent in the Liberal cabinet, and I don't want to bump out anyone more deserving ....'"
