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Haven't we seen this movie before?

I hope you'll forgive me for a rather short Game Report - I kind of shot my bolt earlier this week, for no apparent reason. And while I celebrate, along with all Blue Jays fans, Alex Rios finally - finally! - breaking his long home run famine, there is really only one issue we must address. One issue that has to be of overwhelming concern to everyone connected in any way to the Toronto ball club.

Seriously, right now, there are few things more urgent than finding out what's wrong with Ted Lilly and getting it fixed.

How bad is it? Here is a tale of two pitchers:

	     G  GS  CG  IPT   W  L  H  HR   R  ER  SO  BB  ERA
Pitcher A    7   7   0  27.2  1  4  43  7  32  32  23  16  10.41
Pitcher B    7   7   0  34.1  2  4  57  7  44  44  20  22  11.53
Pitcher A is Ted Lilly after failing again to get through two innings. Lilly faced 13 batters last night and was able to retire only five of them. He surrendered a bases loaded double, two singles, and five walks.

Despite making seven starts, Lilly hasn't even been able to get through enough innings to qualify for the ERA leader board. This is just as well, perhaps: there are 115 pitchers who do qualify, and Lilly ranks well behind each and every one of them. The difference between Ted Lilly and the 115th man on the list, Oliver Perez of the Pirates is greater than the difference between Dave Bush and Mark Prior, Dave Bush and Jake Peavy.

Let's repeat that point, so that it's absolutely clear. Dave Bush's 2005 performance, which has so many of us disappointed, is nevertheless closer to Mark Prior's performance or Jake Peavy's performance.... than Ted Lilly has been to the man who ranks dead bloody last in the major leagues in ERA. How scary is that?

How scary is this - Ted Lilly has been out-pitched this season by Scott Erickson. Who has allowed 9 HR and struck out just 5 hitters in more than 30 IP, and is forced to sleep on his stomach because of the huge fork protruding from his back...

In the Instant Replay, King Ryan noted that: "Even Hentgen last year didn't look this bad. Or maybe he did. Still, if you're being compared to 2004 Hentgen, that's not good."

No it's not good. It's very bad indeed, because Hentgen last year was significantly better than this. And Hentgen was bad enough that he actually retired in mid-season rather than continue...

Yes, Lilly missed spring training, as Keith Talent pointed out. But Lilly missed it last year as well, and it didn't have anywhere near this kind of impact. This is going beyond a poor start to the season. Way, way beyond. Barry Zito and Tom Glavine are off to poor starts. But both Zito and Glavine have still shown considerable evidence, Glavine as recently as last night, that they can still be effective. No. Something is very wrong. Major league pitchers simply do not normally pitch this poorly for this long. For one thing, their managers don't let them. They stop giving them the ball.

Ted Lilly turned 29 this year, and Dave Stieb turned 29 in 1986. The first part of 1986 was the absolute nadir of Stieb's career, and even more unexpected - a veteran, an all-star pitching like he didn't even belong in the major leagues. It would take Stieb pretty well two full seasons to rebuild himself into a quality starting pitcher.

But that's not the movie we've seen before. This is a far worse horror show. Stieb was never this lost. At this point in 1986, after his first seven starts, Stieb was 0-4, 6.02. He was actually improving his ERA as his year went on - Stieb was in double figures after his first two starts, and was grimly working his way down through the 7s and the 6s. Losing games all the while, but not like this...

So this brings us to Pitcher B. Roy Halladay, 2000 edition. You remember that movie, don't you?

The line for Pitcher B belonged to Halladay on May 5, 2000 after his 7th start. Like Lilly, he had begun his season with a strong effort. But from that point his ERA went from 3.86 to 6.94 to 8.04 to 9.00 to 10.80 to 10.57 and finally to 11.53.

At which point, Jim Fregosi took him out of the rotation. Halladay would never get his ERA into single digits during the 2000 season, and he opened 2001 at A ball, rebuilding both his psyche and his mechanics.

But is this an option here? I doubt it very much. Ted Lilly is not a 22 year old who has never spent a season in the rotation. He turned 29 in January and he has started more than 100 games in the major leagues. But he is just as messed up right now as Halladay was then. It took a year and a half to put Doc back together.

So at this point, you're actually hoping there's an injury involved. It would at least provide an explanation. Because if the problem isn't in his arm, it's in his head.

Lilly has always had a reputation of being a difficult pitcher to work with, for catchers and pitching coaches alike. Last season, however, he seemed to click with Gregg Zaun. I did some research, here on the Box, of how various Jays pitchers performed with the various catchers. And to my surprise, one of the most productive relationship was that between Lilly and Zaun. As I recall, Zaun's impact on Lilly was probably more significant than any catcher's impact on any pitcher.

But not this year. Greg Myers caught Lilly's first, and best, start this year, the one against Boston and was behind the plate again for his second, so-so effort against Texas. Lilly was 0-1, 3.60 in 10 IP with Myers catching. Zaun worked with Lilly in his next four starts, before Zaun's injury. Only his win against Tampa offered any encouraging signs whatsoever. Lilly went 1-2, 12.94 in 16 IP with Zaun behind the plate. And, for what it's worth, Lilly is 0-1, 27.00 in 1.2 IP with Huckaby catching.

That really doesn't look like the problem. Lilly worked very well with Zaun last year, and everybody has always worked well with Huckaby.

There's a serious, serious problem here, and it has to get fixed now. I'm not sure if I'd even give him another start to see what happens. Scott Downs is better than this, and I'm inclined to give him the ball.

Ron said "I have a feeling the former all-star wouldn't be pleased to even entertain the offer of pitching in the minors." I agree entirely, and Lilly can't be optioned to the minors at the team's discretion. That means it's either the bullpen or the disabled list.

And meanwhile, the Magpie's record falls to 1-5. It looks like if I want to write about Blue Jay victories, I have to poach someone else's Report. Leading the Roster in losses, thank you very much. Man, I don't want to take these numbers to arbitration. I now live from day to day, hoping not to find myself designated for assignment...

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Chuck - Saturday, May 14 2005 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#116603) #
Perhaps Lilly could save face if he were DL'd and allowed to "rehab" in the minors thereafter.
GrrBear - Saturday, May 14 2005 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#116604) #
I know I'd rather see Pete Walker or Scott Downs out there than Lilly. Bizarre how before the season started, few people thought that of all the rotation members, Lilly would be the one to explode on impact. Thank the Light Chacin and particularly Towers have delivered beyond expectations.
Dave Till - Saturday, May 14 2005 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#116608) #
Lilly's K/IP is still good (in fact, very good), so I don't think it's that Lilly has lost his stuff. (This makes him different from Stieb, who lost a bit after 1985, and took a while to adjust.)

IMHO, Lilly's season has been a vicious cycle: he pitches badly, so he gets less comfortable on the mound, so he pitches even more badly, and so on until he crashes and burns. Escobar did this two years ago, and Halladay did this before that.

Unfortunately, because Lilly is an established pitcher, you can't really send him down to the lower minors and build him back up, as the Jays did with Doc. Sending Lilly down will destroy his confidence further, especially if he struggles against minor-league hitters. All I can suggest is to:

- check him out thoroughly to make sure there's no hidden physical problem;

- put him in the back end of the bullpen and give him a chance to slowly find his range again;

- accept that he might have joined the small group of pitchers (Blass, Ankiel, Wohlers) who blow up in mid-career for no apparent reason.

But the Jays definitely have to do something. Lilly looked hopelessly lost out there in his last start; removing him from the rotation would be an act of mercy at this point.

Mick Doherty - Saturday, May 14 2005 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#116609) #
I hope you'll forgive me for a rather short Game Report
[...]
(1266 words)

And I can only hope we'll have to forgive Lilly for producing a rather short six and a third shutout innings next time out!

butteredcat - Saturday, May 14 2005 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#116610) #
I now live from day to day, hoping not to find myself designated for assignment...

Don't worry Magpie, the 1-5 record is ugly, but we still believe in your potential. I hope you don't think of yourself as writing for the other 29 baseball blogs out there (to steal a page from Josh Towers).

westcoast dude - Saturday, May 14 2005 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#116611) #
A great game report, Magpie. You're the ace, IMO.
How bad was Lilly? Way beyond ugly; it was grotesque.
I would seriously question Gibbons' competence if he puts Lilly on the mound again.
Magpie - Saturday, May 14 2005 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#116612) #
It has come to pass, as Fordin reports in Jays Pull Struggling Lilly. He's being skipped over next time through the rotation (on Tuesday); they'll work him in a simulated game and go from there. He might make his start against Washington, he might not. Depends on what they see from him on the side. And as Dr Prison Fence notes:

The Jays can't send Lilly to the Minor Leagues without exposing him to waivers, and they can't put him on the disabled list because he's adamant that he's healthy.

Ron - Saturday, May 14 2005 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#116613) #
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050514&content_id=1049493&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Lilly has been pulled from his next start. Lilly says he's healthy so it looks like it's a mental problem. Whatever his problem is, hopefully he gets it figured out soon because the Jays are a better club with a productive Lilly.

Gitz - Saturday, May 14 2005 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#116619) #
... Accept that [Lilly] might have joined the small group of pitchers (Blass, Ankiel, Wohlers) who blow up in mid-career for no apparent reason.

That seems melodramatic, but perhaps not without merit. What we have seen from Lilly thus far in 2005 is what drove the A's bananas: They could not reconcile the good peripherals and above average stuff with the results Lilly would actually deliver. He's notoriously stubborn, as Magpie points out, and every report I ever heard coming out of Oakland was that he was simply impossible to coach.

Speaking of stubborn. Last year I declared that the Jays would regret trading for Lilly, and while it's too soon to declare that I was a year off from my prediction -- and we can't take away Lilly's fine 2004 campaign no matter what -- it would not be surprising if that season, not the way this one appears to be heading, will be the outlier.

What do you say to that bet we made, Jonny G.?

Jdog - Saturday, May 14 2005 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#116620) #
Was Kielty the player involved in the Lilly trade. Was there more too it? If it was simply a give up Kielty and recieve Lilly, there is no way they will regret that trade. I'd take one year of an All star pitcher for the career of Kielty any day.
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