Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Bryan Smith, formerly of Wait Til Next Year and The Hardball Times, has a fine article on the top college hitters to watch over at his new home, The Baseball Analysts.

Here's what I had to say in response to Bryan's article:

Great job Bryan. My own list starts 1. Gordon 2. Clement 3. Zimmerman. I like Tulowitzki a lot, Greene less so, but because neither hit real well last year I'm holding out until they hit the toughest part of their schedule. LBSU have played a real good schedule, though. Georgia Tech's has been weak, and Greene's been hitting off a lot of pitchers who aren't pro caliber.
Ryan Braun may end up as a Jeff Kent type, and the best player in the draft. Again, like Georgia Tech, Miami hasn't played a strong schedule to date and there's some stat inflation there.
I agree that Daniel Carte's been disappointing, but don't knock Winthrop. The competition that Carte has faced is as good as what Tyler Greene or Braun has. Problem is, Carte's numbers still don't get him there. But he had a TREMENDOUS summer in the Cape Cod League, nearly winning the triple crown. So we know that Carte can do it with the wood, which isn't true for a lot of guys.

For the Jays' prespective, with Adams and Hill in the organization there likely isn't much interest in Troy Tulowitzki or Tyler Greene. Anything's possible, of course, and Tulowitzki in particular is a better-regarded defender at the NCAA level than Hill or Adams were.

Daniel Carte is a guy who, if he slips to the Jays' second pick, they might have some interest in. We've seen in the past that the Jays take sophomore and summer-league performance very seriously, and Carte hit very well both as a sophomore and in the Cape Cod League, which might be the summer league that the Jays scout most extensively.

Posted by Craig B on Tuesday, May 10 2005 @ 01:27 PM EDT.

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Jdog - Tuesday, May 10 2005 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#116262) #

What do you think of Trevor Crowe? His numbers look pretty impressive and it seems he fits the needs of the Jays organization.

Pistol - Tuesday, May 10 2005 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#116267) #

Arizona is one of the most extreme hitter's park in the NCAA. I'd take those numbers with a grain of salt.

FWIW, BA had Crowe rated 23rd a couple months ago among college players.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 10 2005 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#116275) #

I find it very hard to make any judgments without knowing the prospect's age. Zimmerman might be 20 or he might be 22, and it makes a huge difference.

Jordan - Tuesday, May 10 2005 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#116281) #

Am I correct that the Jays have no second-round pick this year (lost to the Twins as compensation for the Koskie signing)? And that therefore their second pick is in the third round?

mathesond - Tuesday, May 10 2005 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#116285) #

When I read the aeticel this morning, Ryan Braun was the player whose numbers really jumped out at me - especailly if he projects to play 3rd in the majors. I don't think I'd be too upset if the Jays wound up selecting him.

Ryan01 - Tuesday, May 10 2005 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#116286) #

Yes Jordan, that's correct. When you factor in the extra 22(!) supplemental first and second round selections being handed out this year, the Jays will pick 6th and then not again until the 88th pick. That's of course assuming that Weaver and Drew won't be signed before the draft.

Bryan_Smith - Tuesday, May 10 2005 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#116287) #

Everything I have heard sounds like the Blue Jays are going to draft Ricky Romero in four weeks. Craig is right in mentioning that the team won't draft a shortstop, and they probably won't draft Clement at the catching position either. That pretty much takes out all the hitters out of the equation, leaving the pitchers. Pelfrey and Hochevar will surely come too expensive, leaving the Blue Jays with yet another college southpaw. But you can never have too much pitching, and Romero is definitely the best of the bunch.

Pistol - Tuesday, May 10 2005 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#116288) #

Bryan - Are you saying that you think that Romero is the best of he, Pelfrey and Hochevar, or are you saying that you think Romero's the best pitcher after Pelfrey and Hochevar and the Jays won't take those two?

Without a 2nd round pick and the increased budget there's a chance that the Jays will go with a player with 'signability issues' whereas in the past they probably wouldn't have.

Bryan_Smith - Tuesday, May 10 2005 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#116289) #

No, Pelfrey and Hochevar are better prospects than Romero. I was referring to the college southpaws that the Blue Jays picked in 2004.

Thomas - Tuesday, May 10 2005 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#116296) #

Can someone with more college knowledge then myself talk about Wade Townshend's likely draft position? By all reports, has he maintained the stuff/control that made him the #8 pick last year after taking the year off? Where does he project to go? Towards the end of the first round, perhaps?

Marc Hulet - Tuesday, May 10 2005 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#116308) #

I still think the Jays could be playing the bait and switch with Romero. JP is usually quiet about who he is going to take and a lot of people have seen the Jays scouting Romero, which makes me think they will go in another direction. A story on MLB.com said the Jays have also been eyeing Wade Townsend and attended workouts of his.

Brent S - Wednesday, May 11 2005 @ 12:33 AM EDT (#116312) #

I found a few birthdates by doing a quick search. Hopefully I'll get the chance to find a few more potential first-round selections for the Jays.

Jeff Clement 8/21/1983
Taylor Teagarden 12/21/1983
Tyler Greene 8/17/1983
Jeff Larish 10/11/1982
John Mayberry Jr. 12/21/1983
Stephen Head 1/13/1984
Jed Lowrie 4/17/1984

Pistol - Wednesday, May 11 2005 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#116320) #

Brent - If you go to the draft archives there's birthdates for most of the top college players in their stat lines.

Romero, Braun, and Zimmerman are the birthdates I haven't been able to find.

"Has (Townsend) maintained the stuff/control that made him the #8 pick last year after taking the year off? Where does he project to go? Towards the end of the first round, perhaps?"

As far as I know Townsend hasn't pitched in any type of live competition so it'd be tough for anyone to say.

Just guessing on my part, but Townsend was taken 8th last year in a draft that was deep in pitching so I can't imagine that he'd fall past the middle of the first round in a draft that isn't quite as deep. He didn't sign because the O's lowballed him, not because he'd have outrageous signing demands.

Also, minor thing but the Jays pick in the third round will be 88th at worst, and 86th if both Drew and Weaver sign before the draft. Baseball America's comp picks already factored them in.

Brent S - Wednesday, May 11 2005 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#116325) #

Pistol, my bad. I should have checked first.

I think Marc hit the nail on the head -- it has been well reported that the front office likes to use a smoke screen when talking about potential first round picks. Any kind of speculation at this point based on reports from sources such as Gammons should be taken with a grain of salt in my opinion.

Brent S - Wednesday, May 11 2005 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#116326) #

I hit the submit button too soon.

Bryan's new article, found here discusses the crop of college pitching prospects. Another fun read.

Pistol - Wednesday, May 11 2005 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#116329) #

There's obviously no reason for a team to declare who they like as someone could grab them ahead of you (although that's more of an issue for sports that can trade draft picks).

I don't take speculation too seriously, but you can't discount it entirely either (it also gives an indication of where a player might be picked). Last year the 3 or 4 players that were most closely tied to the Jays first pick were Purcey and Jackson. Three years ago Russ Adams wasn't a surprise when he was picked. However, the Jays did try to hide their interest in Aaron Hill.

Craig B - Wednesday, May 11 2005 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#116338) #

I'd be reasonably pleased with Romero. He's the class of the pitchers, statistically, and is a lefty with good (if not necessarily overwhelming) stuff.

I'll get those missing birthdates for you all shortly, and just noting Lowrie's date makes him just turned 21 and the youngest of that group. Don't count the kid out just because he's a small second baseman...

Ken - Wednesday, May 11 2005 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#116339) #

I hope the Jays don't go with a pitcher with the first pick, and I suspect that they won't and will pick a college batter.

Now, as to the batter they choose I'm not so sure, obviously Gordon will be gone, Zimmerman will likely be taken. I think that they will pick someone from an important defensive position either 3B/SS/2B/C.

Clement seems to have good power and discipline but there are questions about him behind the plate, If the Jays pick him they will either have to be satisfied that he can work out his defense or that he can hit enough to play the OF or 1B.

I think if Zimmerman is still available the Jays will pick him. I could also see them going for Tulowitzki.

I think that Braun could be someone that surprises and ends up being picked earlier than anticipated.

So for what it's worth, I'm guessing that the Jays end up picking Zimmerman, and if he isn't available one of Tulowitzki/Clement/Braun. The next few weeks will be exciting to say the least.
My amateur opinion, of course, matters little and I could be totally wrong and we may end up with a high school batter. Which, really, wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

Craig B - Wednesday, May 11 2005 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#116342) #

Picking sixth is nice in one sense, that the Jays will have a very wide pool of available players. With Upton, Maybin and Gordon almost certainly being the three most-sought-after picks, and with at least two of Stephen Drew, Jered Weaver and Wade Townsend very likely to be back in the mix, there's a large number of options available for the Jays, of whom only two will be crossed off by their selection. If Zimmerman and Clement go #4 and #5 as I would normally expect them to, that leaves the Jays the choice of all the pitchers, any of last year's holdovers, high school tools prospect Andrew McCutcheon or HS power hitter Justin Bristow, Ryan Braun, or either of the two favored shortstops. If one of those players is the type that either the Nationals or Brewers favor (the Nationals, who are weak in the infield, may well go for a Tulowitzki type) then Zimmerman or Clement would be available. Likewise if any of the top five teams feel they need a pitcher more than a hitter. If everything broke right, it's not out of the question that Maybin or Gordon could fall to the Blue Jays as well.

mendocino - Wednesday, May 11 2005 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#116365) #

MLB's 1st round predictions

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050507&content_id=1041634&vkey=draft2005&fext=.jsp

as for date of birth's (from Cape Cod League rosters)
Ryan Braun 11/17/83
Daniel Carte 5/18/84

mendocino - Wednesday, May 11 2005 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#116367) #

Zimmerman's dob 9/28/84

http://baseball2004.ctusf.org.tw/en/team/USA.asp

other draft articles at perfectgame.org

http://www.perfectgame.org/2005/crack_of_the_bat/

Pistol - Wednesday, May 11 2005 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#116380) #

Thanks for the DOBs.

That certainly makes Zimmerman a little more appealing. He's one of the youngest juniors in the draft - he'll only be 21 in September.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 11 2005 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#116398) #

Oh, yeah. Assuming the date is accurate, Zimmerman would probably be my choice. This is where scouts are important. You need to be satisfied that he has some power potential, but a Gold Glove quality defender at third with superb control of the strike zone and the ability to crack 15-20 homers gets my vote. I know about the Sean Burroughs comparisons.

Pistol - Thursday, May 12 2005 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#116414) #

I'm pretty sure Zimmerman's DOB is correct. That link also had his passport number!

Being young for his class would also explain why Zimmerman's power has increased this year. His ISO SLG has doubled from just under .100 last year to just over .200 this year.

The concern at this point is that Zimmerman would be gone by the time the Jays pick - the MLB mock draft had the Nationals taking him at #4.

The blurp on the Jays had them taking Romero, but also noted that they've apparently been looking at Townsend as well.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 12 2005 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#116417) #

It seemed to me likely that Upton, Maybin, Gordon and the 2 college pitchers would be gone by the time the Jays were picking. Who knows?

Mike Green - Thursday, May 12 2005 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#116422) #

That link for Zimmerman's dob is interesting. One right-handed pitcher's gender is listed as "G". I'm still trying to figure that one out.

Coach - Thursday, May 12 2005 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#116436) #

At the racetrack, "G" is for gelding. Hope that helps, Mike.

Craig B - Thursday, May 12 2005 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#116438) #

LOL. Poor Stephen Kahn, I hope word doesn't get out.

Pistol - Thursday, May 12 2005 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#116441) #

The issue with Pelfrey and Hochevar is that they're both Boras clients so they might get passed over by the teams drafting at the top.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 12 2005 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#116450) #

Thanks, Coach, for the laugh.

mendocino - Friday, May 13 2005 @ 05:14 AM EDT (#116543) #

Some draft & follow news

http://www.venturacountystar.com/vcs/college/article/0,1375,VCS_137_3768667,00.html

(need supscription)

"closer Brok Butcher gave a verbal commitment to the No. 1-ranked team in national college baseball, Cal State Fullerton."

"He was named the Western State Conference's North Division co-Player of the Year on Monday after going 6-0 with six saves and a 0.46 ERA. He struck out 31 and allowed just 20 hits in 39 innings. He also hit a team-high .429 with two game-winning home runs and 18 RBIs in 70 at-bats as a designated hitter."

"But Oxnard coaches have also heard from Toronto Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi in recent days. The Blue Jays snagged Butcher as a draft and follow out of last June's Major League amateur draft. They will have a six-day window in which to negotiate a contract with Butcher before the June 7 draft."

"In front of a bevy of scouts last week, Butcher reached 96 mph on the radar guns -- his slider flirted with 90 --"

"I want to play (Division I) ball and I want to play professional baseball," said Butcher."

mendocino - Friday, May 13 2005 @ 05:21 AM EDT (#116544) #

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/2005draft/drafttracker.html

Good timing of this thread as Baseball America starts their draft season today with a live draft chat at 3pm ET.(no subscription needed for the above link)

Pistol - Friday, May 13 2005 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#116579) #

Here's the link to the BA Chat:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/chat.php?id=2005051301&rnd=9

Yours truly and Dean got through with some questions today near the end (although I was hoping he'd compare the pitchers to more than just Niemann).

At this point I suspect that the Jays would be choosing one of Zimmerman, Romero, or Townsend.

Brent S - Friday, May 13 2005 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#116591) #

Apologies if this has been posted, but I found Romero's birthdate. Brace yourselves: Nov. 6, 1984. His Cal State personal page can be found here.

Pistol - Friday, May 13 2005 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#116594) #

There's a terrific article at Baseball Prospectus looking at the first 100 picks of the draft from 1984-1999.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4026 (subscriber article).

A couple of the findings:

* Overall, the probability of reaching the majors starts at 90%, drops by about 0.9% per draft spot for the first 50 spots, then drops by about 0.3% per spot from picks 50 through 100.

* There is surprisingly little difference in value between second-round and third-round draft picks.

Pistol - Thursday, May 19 2005 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#117100) #

Part II of the Baseball Prospectus draft study is up for subscribers looking at the draft from 1984-1999.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4042

A key point from it:

* In the first three rounds, college players are about 50% more likely to reach the major leagues than high-school players drafted in the same slot, and produce approximately 55% more value over the course of their careers. This advantage is persistent at every point after the #1 pick.

(Value is determined by WARP, over 15 years)

Paul D - Friday, May 20 2005 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#117197) #

Here's a link to a BA article about the upcoming draft.
They don't discuss what the Jays are thinking, but they do go into the 5 teams that draft before them, so you can kind of get an idea of who will be around when the Jays pick.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/2005draft/050520draftoverview.html

Pistol - Friday, May 20 2005 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#117209) #

And as always, the Friday BA chat is at 2 pm.

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