The Syracuse Skychiefs entered 2005 with expectations of at least a winning record, and perhaps a division title. April ended with the team's record at 10-11 and expectations have been replaced by inconsistency as the best way to describe the first month of the season. May has not started much better for the Chiefs but they have won two in a row.

At the end of April Syracuse were tenth (out of 14) in the IL in runs scored and tied for first (best) in fewest runs allowed. They had scored 94 runs and conceded 84. Obviously the pitching is not the problem, but a team like the Chiefs with a blend of hitting prospects and free agents should be better than tenth in hitting.

The Chiefs have a run differential of plus 10, so why do they have a losing record? The Chiefs record in one run games is 1-3, in two run games it is 1-4. In three + run games it is 8-4. The Chiefs have also only won one game where they have scored less than 4 runs, and they have failed to score four runs in 11 games, more than half of their April contests. The Chiefs have scored nine or more runs five times. Have the Chiefs been unlucky? Not necessarily, the inconsistent hitting has created an imbalance in the results, when the hitting is "on" the team generally wins. When the hitting is "off" they lose. The games where the Chiefs have scored nine runs have padded the hitting stats making them look better than they are.

The Hitters

I am not going to review every player this month, I can do that more meaningfully at the end of May. Some players have hot starts, some cold, but at the end of May we will be over one third of the way through the season and that will be a better time to look at individual performance. Instead I will take a stroll through the numbers, looking at the hitters first. I should also add that the new and not improved minorleaguebaseball.com loses track of players when they leave a team, so Ken Huckaby does not appear in the statistics, but we can get by without his numbers. There are ten hitters who played in at least 10 games in April, four of them are hitting under .250. Andy Dominique, on the team for his defense, is one and Justin Singleton, a backup, is another. The two surprises are Eric Crozier and Jason Alfaro. Crozier has very unusual line; his batting average is low at .229, but he is tied for the lead in walks with 8 for a .316 OBP; he had 16 hits in April, 12 of them for extra bases. Crozier is also second the team with 21 strikeouts in 70 AB's. Crozier right now is a low average, big swinging slugger. Last year Crozier hit .290 and he needs to work to get his batting average back up into that area again. Jason Alfaro hit .325 and .296 in the PCL over the last two years. The PCL is a hitters league but the drop from .325 to .222 this year is too big to be explained by league differences. Look for a bounce back soon.

Two players are hitting over .300, Bryant Nelson and Aaron Hill. Nelson was an IL all-star last year and he is continuing his fine hitting this year. Nelson does not have much power, just five extra base hits in the month, four doubles and a triple. Hill is living up to expectations with a .364 OBP and a .464 sLG. Hill has the lowest K rate on the team, just 9 in 79 AB's but he also has a low walk rate, just four. Hill is aggressive at the plate and will need to become more patient at the major league level. Part of the reason for Hill's aggression is that he can hit the pitches he gets which is a good sign, and Hill is an excellent bet to hit at the major league level. The one question with Hill is what position will he play? Russ Adams has excellent range but a weaker arm, Hill has a stronger arm but less range than Adams. If the Jays are satisfied with Adams play at short this year then Hill will be moved. If Adams is found wanting, Hill will get a shot.

Gabe Gross has not got into a groove yet. Gross must have used his home run allocation in the spring, he has not hit a home run at AAA and is slugging just .358. His walk rate is OK, it appears that he is not getting good swings on the ball.

John Ford Griffin started as the hottest hitter in Syracuse, batting over .300, but his average has slipped to .284. When Griffin does connect he has good power, five home runs in 17 hits. Griffin is still a big swinger, 22 strikeouts in 81 at-bats.

Pitching

The Chiefs expected that Scott Downs and Ryan Glynn would anchor their rotation as the wily vets and Chad Gaudin, Francisco Rosario and Justin Miller, and later Brandon League, would be the younger ones. Both Downs and Glynn struggled in April with identical 6.75 ERA's. Hitters are batting .314 off Downs and .289 off Glynn. Both pitchers had hopes of making the parent club in the spring and pitched out of the major league bullpen in spring training. Downs has suggested that is the reason for his slow start, Glynn could claim the same. Both will likely improve in May and indeed both have started well.

Chad Gaudin has been Syracuse's best starter with an opponents BA of .196. Gaudin has allowed 18 hits and seven walks in 25.1 innings. Gaudin's has 17 K's for a K rate of 6.0, a bit lower than you would hope for. That level of strikeout rate suggests a control-type pitcher in the major leagues. Francisco Rosario has been good but inconsistent, like Gaudin hitters are only hitting .193 off him. Rosario has allowed two more walks than Gaudin in almost two fewer innings but his K rate is 9.1, a very good rate for AAA. Justin Miller has been the swing man and has pitched well, twenty baserunners in eighteen innings with a K rate of 8.5, when Justin has that good slider going he can rack up a lot of K's.

The bullpen has been excellent, Spike Lundberg leads the way with a 0.00 ERA (although he has conceded runs in May). Lundberg allowed just two unearned runs in April, and opponents are hitting .182 off him. The lowest BA against belongs to Jason Arnold at .111. Initial reports had Arnold's velocity in the bullpen being similar to last year but he is obviously doing something right. A .111 batting average against is a sign of extremely good luck, and will probably not last. Mike Nannini and Adrian Burnside also have opponent BA's under .200.

May started in a similar fashion to April as the Chiefs began 0-3, they have since rallied for two wins. Syracuse hitters scored four runs in the three losses with fifteen hits total in the three games.