How bad? Well, on May 1, the left fielder had a .235 on-base percentage. The centerfielder was “slugging” .193. New Hampshire finished April near the bottom of the Eastern League in many hitting categories, sporting a .228/.278/.316 team batting line that the word “anemic” fails to fully capture. Put it this way: Pittsburgh AA farmhand Brad Eldred smacked 10 home runs in April; the entire New Hampshire roster hit 8. Fisher Cat hitters scored about three runs a game, had the second-most strikeouts in the circuit, and drew the fewest walks. In a word, they were hurtin’.
In fairness to the New Hampshire batters, however, they’re not alone in these struggles. For whatever reason, the Eastern League has been playing as an unusually strong pitchers’ circuit these first few weeks, as most teams are scoring fewer than 4.5 runs per game. For further proof, consider that New Hampshire pitchers have accumulated a club ERA of 3.16, a fantastic total -- but one that’s still good for only fifth in the league. Fisher Cat pitchers are around the middle of the pack in strikeouts, but true to form, they issued the fewest walks in the EL by far. So basically, if you were looking for high-scoring slugfests, you probably should’ve stayed away from the Eastern League in April.
Why the depressed scoring? One possibility is the Park Factor one month into games at beautiful brand-new Fisher Cats Stadium in Manchester. Rosterite and fellow minor-league scribe Jonny German has run some numbers and has come to some pretty surprising conclusions about how the new park has played early this season:
"The Fisher Cats played 13 games at home and 8 on the road in April. Their home Park Factor in that time, calculated as [2*Runs/Game@home]/[Runs/Game Overall], is a staggeringly low .727. Last year, in pitcher-friendly Gill Stadium, the PF was .974."
.727 Park Factor 5.00 Total Runs/Game, Home 8.75 Total Runs/Game, Away 65 Total Runs, Home 70 Total Runs, Away 28 Runs For, Home 37 Runs Against, Home 37 Runs For, Away 33 Runs Against, Away"This absurd Park Factor leads to a dismal showing in the Runs department:"
Team Games R R/G Altoona 20 109 5.5 Portland 20 107 5.4 Erie 23 115 5.0 Akron 21 100 4.8 Trenton 24 104 4.3 Norwich 23 98 4.3 Harrisburg 21 88 4.2 Reading 23 95 4.1 Bowie 23 88 3.8 Binghampton 24 90 3.8 New Britain 22 67 3.0 New Hampshire 22 66 3.0"If the Cats scored as well at home as they have on the road, they'd be at 97 runs, or 4.6 R/G, 5th in the league. While the Cats have been quite a bit worse than their opponents at scoring in New Hampshire, their opponents have been pretty bad too, at 2.8 R/G."
Thanks, Jonny. That Park Factor is obviously going to rise over time, but it might help explain some of the offensive drought. So when leafing through the numbers that follow, keep in mind that the offensive malaise you see there is at least in part a reflection of a brutal home Park Factor and depressed scoring generally throughout the league. Keep in mind also that many of these hitters are making the leap from Single-A Ball, where they’ve proven beforehand that they can hit and score with the best of them. Remember both these things, because some of the numbers you’re about to see are downright pug-ugly. (All stats current as of May 1).
Batting
Vito Chiaravalotti, 1B, 24
61 AB, .279/.313/.377, 7 R, 6 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 14 K
The plan was for Big Vito to be one of New Hampshire’s top sluggers this season, and he’s third on the team in SLG percentage, at least. But like almost all the other F-Cats, April has been a big disappointment for Chiaravalotti. Considering that Vito drew 69 walks in 447 AB in Dunedin last season, it's difficult to believe that he's walked just once in his first 61 at-bats so far this year. Still, you know these numbers will improve as the weather gets warmer (and indeed, he’s already picked up the pace since mid-April).
Rob Cosby, 3B, 24
68 AB, .250/.292/.309, 6 R, 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 17 K
Cosby blew out his knee during a hot start in the first week for New Hampshire last season, leading to much anticipation as to whether he had brought his game to another level. So far this season, though, Cosby is displaying neither slugging nor on-base skills. Like most New Hampshire batters, he’s hoping for better results in May. Keep in mind that 100 at-bats is a useful (though admittedly arbitrary) line to cross before making assessments of a hitter's progress.
Carlo Cota, 2B, 24
74 AB, .243/.282/.392, 12 R, 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 4 BB, 25 K
Compared to most of his teammates, Cota has been a slugging machine this month, with six extra-base hits; he banged out 49 for Dunedin last year. But the cost of those extra bases -- a strikeout every 3 at-bats -- would be too high even with a .500 SLG, let alone an SLG below .400. Cota has always had strikeout issues, and those problems tend to get magnified at higher levels. He needs to make more consistent contact and reverse this nasty trend towards swinging and missing.
Ron Davenport, LF, 23
65 AB, .215/.235/.292, 4 R, 5 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 16 K
Davenport broke out in his third season at Dunedin last season, and there was reason to think it wasn’t just a fluke performance. However, he’s started off his New Hampshire tenure with a 527 OPS, which is doubtless not the first impression Davenport was hoping to make. As mentioned, the Fisher Cats appear to be suffering from a team-wide level-jump problem: many of their key hitters are making the leap from A-Ball, and without exception, they’re struggling badly. A few more minor-league veterans like Kevin Barker might have been in order (keeping in mind that Barker himself is scuffling a bit); if the F-Cats continue to struggle, expect the Blue Jays to cast about for exactly that kind of veteran assistance.
Maikel Jova, RF, 24
72 AB, .264/.284/.347, 6 R, 3 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 2 BB, 16 K
One of the few returning vets from last year’s championship squad, Jova is, relatively speaking, one of the more reliable batters in the lineup. Two walks in 72 ABs is, of course, terrible, but at least it’s in line with Jova’s minor-league career, in which he’s walked a grand total of 50 times in exactly 2,100 at-bats. A distinct aversion to the base on balls has been the biggest impediment to his prospect status, as he does many other things quite well. At least the Fisher Cats can expect a little more power from Jova as the season progresses.
Erik Kratz, C, 24
43 AB, .279/.373/.465, 5 R, 2 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 6 BB, 12 K
The lone bright spot on offence has been Kratz, who up to this point in his career has been something of an organizational solider for Toronto, going wherever he’s needed most. He’s spent most of the last two seasons with Auburn in the New York-Penn League, but he’s also made stops at Toronto’s other A-Ball teams and has sipped coffee twice at Double-A the last two seasons. Kratz has a good eye and more than a little pop, but he’s had only a handful of games at Double-A, and this solid start probably won't last. He’s the only Fisher Cat with an OPS above 800.
Miguel Negron, CF, 22
57 AB, .158/.213/.193, 5 R, 2 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB, 12 K
Negron, who was mostly adequate with the bat at Dunedin last season, has looked utterly lost at the plate in Double-A. Although he’s still young for this level, he’s also running short on time for the Jays to make a decision on him; the former first-rounder can declare six-year free agency after this season. If he hasn’t improved sufficiently by the end of May, the Jays might have to consider returning him to the Florida State League, despite his continued excellence in centerfield, or even dealing him away. His raw tools still get scouts very excited.
Raul Tablado, SS, 23
50 AB, .220/.310/.340, 6 R, 0 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 6 BB, 17 K
The star-crossed Tablado, who missed time early this season serving a substance-related suspension dating to last season, is also off to a slow start, although he’s at least drawing a few walks. Reports indicate that as a shortstop, Tablado is going to make a fine third baseman or corner outfielder someday. The Fisher Cats lost their new hitting coach, former big-leaguer John Valentin, right before the season began, and the hitters have scuffled badly in the wake of that surprising move. The disruption may be a factor, as may be the weather, but either way, it’s been a very rough April for the offence.
Pitching
Josh Banks, RHP, 22
4-0, 2.05, 5 GS, 30 IP, 22 H, 2 BB, 25 K, 4 HR, 22.5% KBF
The ace of the New Hampshire staff remains one of the Blue Jays’ top pitching prospects. Banks had a terrific April, displaying the sort of domination he showed at Dunedin this time last year. Banks, of course, struggled badly upon promotion to Double-A last summer, and although he righted himself as the season went on, he wasn’t posting numbers nearly this good — and he’s still just 22. If he continues to maintain this sort of command, Banks won’t be long for the Eastern League. The Jays, I’m sure, would like to see a few more strikeouts and a few less long balls before giving him the call to Syracuse. I doubt that will be any later than June.
Lee Gronkiewicz, RHP, 26
1-0, 1.17, 8 G, 0 GS, 6 Sv, 7 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 34.3% KBF
Brought over as a free agent from Cleveland’s system, where he’s been a closer for a few minor-league clubs, Gronkiewicz now plies his trade for New Hampshire, and very effectively at that. It says a fair bit, I think, that the Blue Jays had Bubbie Buzachero on the Fisher Cats roster and still chose to go out and pick up an established closer. Buzachero, who has thrown just 8 innings this year and has not finished a game, doesn’t appear to be on the organization’s prospect list anymore.
Ryan Houston, RHP, 25
0-1, 4.15, 6 G, 0 GS, 8 IP, 6 H, 4 BB, 13 K, 2 HR, 36.6% KBF
Say this for Houston: he has the raw stuff to dominate. He has struck out 156 batters in 149 innings the last two seasons. Unfortunately, he has always had difficulty harnessing that stuff, and at 25, it’s seems unlikely he’s going to learn how to do that in the near future. He also gives up more homers than you’d think a strong strikeout pitcher like him would have: he’s now allowed 15 dingers in 105 Double-A innings. He’s fun to watch, but his repertoire sometimes does as much harm as good.
Shaun Marcum, RHP, 23
3-1, 2.73, 4 GS, 26 IP, 22 H, 3 BB, 22 K, 3 HR, 21.2% KBF
In many respects, Marcum has been the real standout of the staff in the early going. It’s important to remember that this is his Double-A debut; he was supposed to be struggling against tougher competition the way Josh Banks did last summer (although admittedly, Banks is younger). Instead, Marcum continues to cruise along, defying skeptics who doubt his raw stuff. Marcum’s a recent convert to the mound (he was primarily a shortstop in college), and it’s quite possible that he’s getting stronger and better the more he pitches. Endurance is still an issue with Marcum, and the bullpen may well be in his future, but right now, he’s not suffered so much as a blip in his pro career.
Vince Perkins, RHP, 23
1-1, 2.70, 4 GS, 20 IP, 16 H, 9 BB, 16 K, 1 HR, 19.0% KBF
After a promising first couple of starts, Perkins has regressed in his last couple, and that has pretty much been the pattern throughout his minor-league career. Command is a constant struggle for the hard-throwing Canadian, linked primarily to mechanical difficulties that have always been a work in progress for him. That said, this is his first exposure to Double-A, and a certain adjustment period is to be expected. Perkins will probably be given many more opportunities in the rotation before the bullpen becomes an alternative — his raw stuff is simply explosive.
Ismael Ramirez, RHP, 24
1-3, 4.03, 4 GS, 22 IP, 23 H, 4 BB, 14 K, 2 HR, 15.3% KBF
The jump to Double-A has also been difficult for Ramirez, although he’s been suffering from an injury that has limited his effectiveness and that placed him on the DL on April 27. Ramirez, like most of the rest of the Jays’ pitching prospects, relies on pinpoint command to be effective, but he’ll need to strike out more hitters to be considered ready for the next level. Hopefully, he’ll bounce back to full strength once he returns.
Cameron Reimers, RHP, 26
1-2, 5.31, 4 GS, 20 IP, 27 H, 6 BB, 13 K, 2 HR, 14.1% KBF
Veteran Reimers, one of the stalwarts of last year’s championship rotation, is off to a rocky start this season: opposing batters are beating him up at a .325 clip. Reimers has been around Double-A for quite awhile, however, and has proven his effectiveness, so unless there’s an injury there somewhere, expect him to return to form within the next few weeks.
Jamie Vermilyea, RHP, 23
0-0, 2.45, 5 G, 0 GS, 1 Sv, 14 IP, 14 H, 4 BB, 8 K, 1 HR, 13.7% KBF
One of the organization’s most prominent sleeper prospects — actually, that’s kind of a contradiction in terms, isn’t it? — Vermilyea didn’t have a very impressive April. He had more success than this last season as a member of the Fisher Cats, though, and he can be expected to get back in the groove before long. Vermilyea will probably not overpower anyone at higher levels, so he’ll have stretches like this where he catches too much of the strike zone and gets knocked around a lot. He still profiles as someone who can help the Jays in a middle-relief role down the line, and as an all-purpose reliever, he can be invaluable to a team.
