Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Top College Prospects Update

Time to once again check in on the college players the Blue Jays may select with their first pick in the June draft.

Note - these are unadjusted stats. Adjustments for park and competition, however, have been made in the '04 Burley Rankings'. Stats are through May 3rd.

Pitchers:

Luke Hochavar, RHP, Tennessee
6'5', 205 lbs, 9/15/83
04 Burley Ranking - 215

Year	Inn	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
2005	88.2	1.83    9.5	2.8	0.2
2004	63.0	2.86	8.6	3.3	1.0
2003	77.2	4.64	8.5	2.8	1.0

Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Wichita St
6'7", 215 lbs, 1/14/84
04 Burley Ranking - 27

Year	Inn	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
2005	 98.2	1.64	9.6	2.1	0.3
2004	115.1	2.18	9.8	1.9	0.2
2003	104.2	2.49	8.5	1.3	0.8

Ricky Romero, LHP, Cal St Fullerton
6'1", 195 lbs, 11/6/84
04 Burley Ranking - 11

Year	Inn	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
2005	96.2	2.70   10.0	2.5	0.2
2004   155.0	3.37	7.3	2.4	0.5
2003	56.1	3.20	7.4	2.9	0.6

Hitters:

Alex Gordon, 3B, Nebraska
6'1", 205 lbs, 2/10/84
Hits: L – Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 5

Year	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg
2005	159	0.396	0.553	0.761
2004	211	0.365	0.493	0.754
2003	216	0.319	0.426	0.495

Ryan Zimmerman, 3b, Virginia
6'3", 210 lbs, 9/28/84
Bats: R - Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 558

Year	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg
2005	184	0.402	0.472	0.614
2004	249	0.361	0.395	0.454
2003	221	0.308	0.340	0.376

Jeff Clement, C, USC
6'1", 205 lbs, 8/21/83
Bats: L - Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 339

Year	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg
2005	144	0.361	0.497	0.653
2004	198	0.293	0.416	0.515
2003	208	0.298	0.402	0.649

Stephen Head, 1B, Mississippi
6'2", 220 lbs, 1/13/84
Hits: L – Throws: L
04 Burley Ranking - 60

Year	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg
2005	183	0.311	0.388	0.612
2004	228	0.346	0.419	0.583
2003	208	0.337	0.385	0.490

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Long Beach St
6'3", 200 lbs, 10/10/84
Bats: R - Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 530

Year	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg
2005	 98	0.367	0.461	0.663
2004	230	0.317	0.410	0.491
2003	196	0.270	0.307	0.408

Jeremy Slayden, OF, Georgia Tech
6'0", 196 lbs, 7/28/82
Bats: L - Throws: R

Year	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg
2005    173     0.358   0.462   0.572
2004	35	0.286	0.366	0.400
2003	218	0.294	0.394	0.523
2002	256	0.348	0.442	0.625

Ryan Braun, 3b/SS, Miami FL
6'2", 205 lbs, 11/17/83
Bats: R - Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 132

Year	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg
2005	158	0.424	0.505	0.778
2004	155	0.335	0.439	0.606
2003	242	0.364	0.446	0.665

Tyler Greene, SS, Georgia Tech
6'2", 188 lbs, 8/17/83
Bats: R - Throws: R
04 Burley Ranking - 785

Year	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg
2005	185	0.324	0.413	0.514
2004	256	0.273	0.371	0.434
2003	228	0.316	0.391	0.474

In addition to those 11 players Wade Townsend, and Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver if they don't sign prior to the draft, could be in the mix at the top of the draft.

Recently spectulation has the Jays being interested in LHP Ricky Romero - JP Ricciardi was reportedly at a Cal St Fullerton / Long Beach St game a couple weeks ago presumably scouting Romero and Tulowitzki. Last season Romero's numbers weren't overwhelming, but he pitched in a hitter's park against good competition so his adjusted stats came out quite well. This season he's improved on his numbers to the point where he's getting consideration around the Jays pick.

High schooler Justin Upton and Gordon seem to be locks to be top 5 picks, and are likely to go 1-2. Cameron Maybin, another highly regarded HS'er, is also likely to be a top 5 pick. (It'd be interesting to see what the Jays would do if he were to be available at the sixth pick.)

After those three players the top players look to be pitchers - Hochaver, Pelfrey, and Romero. Among hitters Clement (C) and Zimmerman (3B) look to be the top hitting prospects in the draft.

Posted by Pistol on Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 10:30 AM EDT.

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Flex - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#115758) #

Though I generally don't support drafting for need, I'd have to think that with the continued health troubles of Quiroz, an exciting young catcher like Clement might get a long look from Ricciardi.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#115766) #

Here's a little more detail on Zimmerman and Head. Zimmerman's numbers are reflective of his ability to make contact. He has struck out 9 times all season so far, but his power has not developed even though he is a big guy. Head's stock has fallen. He has been striking out fairly often, and he is a fair distance from being the best hitter on his college team (Brian Pettway is that).

Does anyone have reports on Clement's defence behind the plate?

Marc Hulet - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#115771) #

Personally I am a Ryan Braun fan, but I wouldn't mind seeing the Jays take a gamble and draft Jordan Danks, a high school outfielder and brother of Texas' top prospect John Danks.

I think Romero is being a little overhyped because he is the best lefty available in college. Zimmerman is interesting but he makes me think of Sean Burroughs, who doesn't have enough power to be an impact player at 3B.

Overall, I am underwhelmed by the top ranking college pitchers so I would advocate taking a bat.

Rich - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#115777) #

Mike Green, this is from brewersfan.net about Clement:

"Power hitting catching prospect that was considered a first-round pick coming out of High School in Iowa, but he disappointed scouts somewhat that spring which caused him to fall to the 12th round, where he was selected by the Twins. Clement is best known for breaking the prep home run mark previously held by Drew Henson. He also holds the all-time walks record for prep players. He has continued to hit with incredible power from the left-side of the plate at USC, using a short, compact stroke and good bat speed. He hits the ball to all fields, and shows a very keen eye at the plate. For a good power hitter, he doesn't strike out very much, and he will also draw his fair share of walks. The big question mark remains on the defensive side of his game. He did a very good job throwing out base-stealers as a sophomore, and has worked hard to improve his footwork, blocking and overall game-calling skills. With a big spring Clement could easily find himself as one of the first 3-5 picks, especially if he proves himself behind the dish."

Rich - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#115779) #

It also looks doubtful that Drew and Weaver will sign; so much the better for the Jays if the talent pool is deeper.

Jim - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#115780) #

I've been waiting to ask this one for a while.

If he's the best player that is available when they pick, I hope that they take him because the money is available, and he's got a chance to contribute quickly.

When you are chasing a payroll that is 3 times yours even when yours goes up I think you need to take some risks. This is one I'd be all for (assuming of course he's as good as advertised in some places).

Flex - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#115785) #

To whom are you referring, Jim?

Pistol - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#115792) #

Overall, I am underwhelmed by the top ranking college pitchers so I would advocate taking a bat.

I'm actually the exact opposite - I'm not crazy about any of the top college hitters, but the top 3 college pitchers look pretty good to me. (Plus Townsend will be out there.)

Catchers high in the draft scare me. There seems to be a higher injury risk with them and they, I believe, generally develop slower than other positions. If you end up with a premium bat at that position you're in great shape, but it just seems hard to get to that point.

Zimmerman worries me as well just because he seems to have really shot up the draft charts in the past year starting with his Team USA stint last summer. His adjusted ranking for 2004 was really low. (Plus I can't find his, Romero's or Braun's date of births).

Pistol - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#115796) #

Here are the stats of the top college pitchers drafted last year (going into the draft, and not the entire season), with Jackson & Purcey included as well:

Jered Weaver – Long Beach St
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	
2004	1.27	113.1	13.6	1.1	0.3		
2003	1.96	133.1	9.7	1.4	0.5	

Justin Verlander – Old Dominion
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	
2004	3.33	92	13.2	3.8	0.8		
2003	2.40	116.1	10.8	3.3	0.2	
2002	1.90	113.2	10.9	3.4	0.2	

Phillip Humber – Rice
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	
2004	1.66	92	11.8	2.6	0.2		
2003	3.30	128.0	9.7	2.7	0.8	
2002	2.77	110.2	10.6	3.5	0.7

Jeff Niemann – Rice
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	
2004	2.58	59.1	10.7	3.0	0.5		
2003	1.70	137.1	10.2	2.3	0.4	
2002	3.11	66.2	7.2	3.7	0.1		

Wade Townsend – Rice
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	
2004	1.55	98.2	11.1	3.4	0.5	
2003	2.20	118.2	12.5	3.5	0.2	
2002	2.28	51.1	9.0	3.9	0.7

Jeremy Sowers – Vanderbilt
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	
2004	3.14	94.2	8.5	1.7	0.6	
2003	2.50	115.0	9.6	2.3	0.5	
2002	4.37	101.0	7.6	2.8	0.8	

Thomas Diamond – New Orleans
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	
2004	2.57	98	11.5	3.5	0.6		
2003	5.79	37.1	10.7	6.1		 	

Zach Jackson – Texas A&M
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	
2004	3.02	92.1	10.2	2.0	0.4	
2003	4.31	112.2	6.0	2.3	1.0	
2002	4.77	83.0	5.0	2.6	0.9	

David Purcey - Oklahoma
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	
2004	2.76	98	10.0	3.9	0.4		
2003	5.20	72.2	8.4	5.1	0.5	
2002	3.35	75.1	10.1	5.3	0.4

2004 was considered a strong pitcher's draft and eyeballing these numbers against the top college pitchers this year and it doesn't look like this year's pitchers would have been in the top 10 mix, so perhaps they aren't as strong as I thought. Comparing the top pitchers this year to the top pitchers last year would be a good Ask BA question, or chat question, when the draft gets closer.

Ron - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#115803) #

It's hard for me to judge these players when I've never seen any of them on tv or in person.

But looking at the Jays minor league system, they are really missing a power bat. I hope JP doesn't take another SP in the first round unless that player is head and shoulders above the best hitter available.

Jim - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#115806) #

I was talking about Drew. It's hard to post from work sometimes :).

Pistol - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#115808) #

It's hard for me to judge these players when I've never seen any of them on tv or in person.

Hell, it'd be tough for me to judge these players if I *have* seen them play.

But looking at the Jays minor league system, they are really missing a power bat. I hope JP doesn't take another SP in the first round unless that player is head and shoulders above the best hitter available.

So long as #3 type starters are getting $7 million/year it's never a bad idea to take a pitcher if you think he's the best player, regardless of the bats in your minor leagues - there's nothing that says you can't make trades.

mendocino - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#115809) #

JP has mentioned they want someone who will play right away.
Boras clients I could find : Drew, Weaver, Hochevar, Pelfrey, Greene, RHP-Mark McCormick (Baylor), RHP-Jason Neighborgall (Georgia Tech), RHP-Craig Fisher (St. John's)

Lugnut Fan - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#115812) #

I personally wouldn't touch Weaver with a ten foot pole. Being a Boras client, he has been very hard to sign and his demands aren't going to go away. I would go in another direction.

Craig B - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#115813) #

I will get off my butt and crunch the 2005 numbers in the coming week, I promise. Also, I've been doing some visual scouting of the top college prospects thanks to the miracle of online video.

Let me come right out and say that there's not a lot of top-quality power hitters available in this draft. I too would love to see the Blue Jays get a guy with 40-homer potential, but honestly there are very few players with that sort of pedigree available this year. I'd rank (very unscientifically) the available players as follows, PURELY in terms of power potential and nothing else:

1. Gordon
2. Cameron Maybin
3. Clement
[huge drop]
4. John Mayberry, Jr.
5. Braun

With nobody else having first-round potential as a true power hitter. HS player Justin Bristow is talked about as a potential slugger, but I haven't been able to check out any video on him, and HS statistics are of course not in any way comprehensible to me. If the talk I hear about Bristow is accurate, he's the third-best power bat in the draft, ranking just behind Maybin and ahead of Clement. Bristow (judging from photos) has the body to develop into a terrific power hitter, but more than that I cannot say.

Upton's not on the list for a couple of reasons. First, I think he's a bit overrated generally; he's inherited a lot of buzz from his brother, which has helped his profile. Second, he appears at this point to have his speed game, and hitting for average, ahead of his power game and I think he'll be encouraged to develop that way. Finally, he's likely to be asked to play the middle infield and middle infielders do not, historically, develop their power hitting as well as other players.

Maybin's a legitimate top-3 pick. Even though his swing is long, the Darryl Strawberry comparisons are pretty accurate from what I've seen of him in action (just a little video, no more than about 10 swings... so it's a slim body of evidence to go on). Everyone raves about him.

Mayberry's been HORRIBLY disappointing; quite disappointing last year, really disappointing last summer, and this year it's approaching disaster proportions. But I still think the potential is there; everyone has agreed on it. I think Mayberry has played himself right out of first-round territory, and if he doesn't turn himself around he'll never make the majors, but the potential that was there two or three years ago is still there, it's just been locked away. Find the key, and he'll become a fearsome power hitter.

I'd like Clement's bat a lot more if he wasn't a catcher. He's had a very fine year against some *extremely* tough competition; he's probably faced far more good pitchers this year than any player in college baseball. He's got good plate discipline too. If the Jays decided to take Clement, I'd be overjoyed (despite the fact that - he's improved his defense a ton, and while he'll probably never have a top-class arm he can throw enough to do the job and has excellent defensive skills otherwise (very few errors and passed balls). His swing will translate well because it's short and aggressive but he disciplines himself magnificently.

I know that the Jays have two catchers of the future already - Q and now Curtis Thigpen - but Clement's one of the few high-quality power bats around and the catching thing is just a bonus.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#115815) #

Clement sounds like an older version of Daric Barton, with perhaps better D. The "older" part is of course important.

Jonny German - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#115816) #

When you are chasing a payroll that is 3 times yours even when yours goes up I think you need to take some risks.

Personally, it's the Red Sox at 1.5x Jays payroll that I expect them to be chasing. As for the Yankees... I'm wondering if Weaver, Drew, and Townsend go back in to the draft, will they still be considered to be asking for unreasonable amounts and thus drop a long ways? Far enough for the Yanks to draft all three of them? Would this be an advisable thing for the Yanks to do to give their farm system a quick boost?

New York is owed Type B compensation from the White Sox for Orlando Hernandez and from the Phillies for Jon Lieber. They owe Type A compensation to the Braves for Jaret Wright and to the Marlins for Carl Pavano. This nets the Yankees 1 first round pick (#17 overall) and 1 second round pick (#66). I mistakenly thought they'd end up with 2 supplemental first round picks, according to BA they do not.

The Red Sox have 6 picks beginning at #23 and ending at #60. Wow.

Craig B - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#115823) #

Yes, the Yankees drafting Weaver, Drew and Townsend and throwing money at them is possible, but unlikely. Someone will draft these guys earlier and play hardball with them. It would be probably in the Yankees' interest to throw money at these types of guys rather than free agents (within reason... Weaver is a stretch if he really does want $10 million or more, as reported) but I don't think they can draft more than one.

I honestly believe the Red Sox know they can get better bargains than Drew/Weaver/Townsend. Their draft last year was magnificent in my opinion; they know what they are doing, they seem to spend a lot on scouting but also do a good job picking out players who are statistically well ahead of their standing in "scouting" terms.

Craig B - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#115825) #

Daric Barton, sure, but Clement is waaaay ahead of Barton as a catcher. Clement's not likely to have to become a first baseman, while Barton almost certainly is a 1B/DH. Barton's problem as a 1B is that he's short for a 1B, which major league teams hate.

Barton's two years younger than Clement, and is a better hitter right now - a more fearsome hitter with a better batting eye.

Jim - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#115826) #

I agree that in the short term the Red Sox are the team they are chasing. If the Jays are at 70MM, aren't the Red Sox going to be about twice that? Are they really only at 105MM?

If the Yankees keep spending 200MM I can see how they can rebound quickly if they have the right people in charge. It might take 3-4 years, but just because they look like a 2005/2006 disaster it's not like their money is going away.

nicton - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#115828) #

The bad part is, no matter who the pick is, he will cost the Jays atleast $2.5 mil to sign. A high-schooler would be 4 years away from playing the bigs. Lot of money for a long wait with probably a negative guarantee...

Jonny German - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#115830) #

www.hardballdollars.com has the Sox at $139M this year. The Jays have $210M to spend from 2005 - 2007, and given that they're around $50M this year they're left with $80M for each of 2006 and 2007. Whaddya know, right between 1.5x and 2x.

I did a quick calculation and the Yankees have about $40M net coming off the books this offseason, considering free agents and increases to players under contract. While they should be able to get better bang-for-buck than what they're getting this year from Kevin Brown ($15M), Steve Karsay ($3.5M net savings), Felix Rodriguez ($3.15M), and Mike Stanton ($4M), they'll have to spend significant dollars to replace or re-sign Hideki Matsui ($8M) and Tom Gordon ($3.75M). Also keep in mind that they paid $30M in luxury tax this year and that will go ever higher if they keep the payroll up where it is.

I agree, they definitely have the resources to turn it right around in 3 or 4 years. But given the offseason they just had, I'm not convinced they currently have "the right people in charge".

mendocino - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#115838) #

I've heard someone else mention playing hardball with Boras clients.

Florida with #16,#22,#29 and a supplemental pick.
St. Louis with #28,#30 and two supplemental picks.
Boston with #23,#26 and three supplemental picks.

All three of these teams could use one of their late 1st round picks on a Boras client, hold him to slot money, and if he doesn't sign get a supplemental pick the next year.

This might help a teams draft budget and they wouldn't have to reach for a college senior(s) to keep costs down.

Coach - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#115856) #

Combined with a little payroll flexibility, that's a much faster way to acquire the necessary power bat(s) at the big-league level. You can never have too many pitching prospects, so I'd be pretty happy with Romero. Clement would be fine too, as hitting catchers will always be scarce. If Quiroz and Thigpen both make it, he could be moved to 1B or the Jays would have another hot trade chip.

This year, with their best pick yet, I trust the brain trust to identify someone with an above-average chance to be a star. The rest is in the hands of the baseball gods.

R Billie - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#115879) #

I hope the Jays aren't shy of using that depth to make the trades I think they'll need to make during and after this season. Free agency is not going to be a reliable avenue so if trade avenues present themselves I think they will need to sacrifice some of the youth.

Craig B - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#115880) #

Here's the problem I see with trying to draft a power hitter, aside from the fact that there isn't much power in the draft (other than the top three players I identified above, there isn't a guy I think is both a good draft choice and likely to hit for good power in the majors). Power is a commodity that develops fairly late in a player's career. Even for good power hitters, they tend to not produce a ton of power early in their career.

I'd almost rather just take the best hitter I can find, and hope he develops power later on. Ryan Zimmerman, to take one example, doesn't look right now like he's going to hit a lot of home runs. But he's a good hitter, and if it comes down to a choice between him and a guy who projects to more power, I'd be inclined to take Zimmerman simply because he can hit.

Jim - Thursday, May 05 2005 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#115887) #

It doesn't matter much if they currently have the right people in charge. What will matter is if they hire the right people this offseason.

The best case scenario is that the Blue Jays are chasing a team with about a 60MM payroll advantage, who just happen to have one of the 2 or 3 best front offices in baseball. It's not as bad as chasing a team with a 120MM advantage, but it's still a pretty significant disadvantage.

Magpie - Friday, May 06 2005 @ 01:36 AM EDT (#115893) #

Clement's not likely to have to become a first baseman, while Barton almost certainly is a 1B/DH.

Which I think is already the plan. This is what Beane said in his lengthy interview at Athletics Nation:

The kid Barton that we got, we're going to move him to first base. He was a third baseman in high school and his bat is just too valuable.

Steve Garvey was a pretty decent first baseman, and he's only 5-10.

Wildrose - Friday, May 06 2005 @ 01:57 AM EDT (#115894) #

Thanks for the salary site Jonny, great link now that dugout dollars seems extinct.

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