When Moose signed with the Yanks, I thought of him as a future Hall of Famer. I think he's now borderline at best. If you look at his "Most Similar By Age" progression at BBRef:
Lon Warneke (985)
Rick Rhoden (977)
Schoolboy Rowe (961)
Roy Oswalt (967)
Jack McDowell (950)
Tim Hudson (945)
Ramon Martinez (940)
Bret Saberhagen (924)
Jack Morris (933)
Jack Morris (929)
Dwight Gooden (941)
Dwight Gooden (940)
Dwight Gooden (932)
... it is not overwhelming. And not a Hall of Famer to be found on the list, young Master Hudson's future TBD, of course.
For the visitors:
6 Jeter
8 Williams
9 Sheffield
7 Matsui
5 A Rodriguez
DH Giambi
2 Posada
3 Martinez
4 Sanchez
And for the hometown nine:
7 Catalanotto
2 Zaun
DH Hillenbrand
5 Koskie
8 Wells
3 Hinske
9 Rios
4 Hudson
6 McDonald
IF he goes 11-11 for the next eight years and hangs around to win one start the ninth year, he's in.
You're right Mick, if he hits 300 he deserves to go in, but Gus "the Polar Bear" has a better chance of winning the AL Cy Young this year than Moose has of reaching 300 wins. It's not going to happen. At this stage of his career to Mussina, Halladay's got a better case to go into the HOF, at least he's won a CY Young.
If he pitched 5 more years after this year that'd only be 15 wins a year to get to 300. That doesn't seem that far away to me, especially on a team that should always be above average scoring runs.
In his 4 years with the Yanks he's averaged 16 wins.
I suppose it depends on how long he pitches.
Is last year a blip, or a sign of things to come? We'll probably know a lot more in 6 months.
Mussina has certainly pitched well enough in his career to be a Hall of Famer. Mussina's problem Hall-wise is that his profile (because of who he is - rather studious, consistent, and no-nonsense) is much lower than his achievements. In this, he reminds me of someone I recently found myself writing about - Jimmy Key. Mussina is the type of player that everyone thinks the press loves, but who they never do (possibly because he's smarter than most of them).
It's very difficult to win 250 games and not make the Hall of Fame. It would be unheard of to win 250, with as good a percentage as Mussina is sure to have, and not get in. 250 wins is three seasons of 13 wins - I think he's got those in him. Regardless, he deserves it.
Sure, and Tracy Ringolsby thinks Wade Boggs doesn't deserve to go in. There are all kinds of crazy debates when it comes to the Hall of Fame - a lot of writers put on their Idiot Hat when it comes to the Hall.
Ultimately, the case against Mussina for the Hall of Fame is that his profile was too low, and he never had a 20-win season. He did have several outstanding seasons, but he often didn't start enough to get to 20 wins. If a guy can be too consistent, Mussina is it. If he'd taken 20 wins out of his five worst seasons, and put them into his five best seasons, he'd have two or three Cys and probably be considered an automatic Hall of Famer.
As for someone not thinking Tom Glavine is a Hall of Famer, I would actually have to think they've never looked at a list of Hall of Famers. He had a 10-year run from 1991-2000 that I'd say is one of the ten best decades by any lefthander, ever.
The ten guys with the most similar stats to Glavine through age 38, are seven Hall members and three guys (Morris, Kaat, and John) who will go in almost as soon as the Veterans Committee gets their hands on them.
Very impressive start by the rookie. Pounding the strike zone early and showing them that he can throw any pitch for a strike.
Hudson has yet to walk this year - though in that at bat, he really should have swung at the 3-1 pitch.
What should be impossible is Pat Tabler saying "nothing wrong with what Hudson's being doing" in discussing the recent move of Zaun to the 2-hole.
Have you decided where you are going to purchase your Hillenbrand jersey, Mr. Dudek? :)
Good analysis by Tabler there on Koskie. In his first at-bat Koskie struck out on junk pitches out of the zone, so this time Mussina gets strike one on a fastball down the middle.
Jays have squandered multiple opportunities by hitting into DPs...
That reminds me of a Josh Phelps single.
Hopefully "The Dude" can become Dude-like again...
When the Yankees went ahead 4-0, I turned the sound off because I didn't want to listen to the sound of Yankees touching home plate (which, to me, is a sickening THUD of doom). The instant I did this, the Jays got the side out and began to score runs. Now, I'll have to leave the sound off for the rest of the game.
It could be worse. When I was living in Waterloo, I knew someone who didn't watch a single game of the 1992 season. He liked baseball, and he liked the Jays, but he was a curse - whenever he watched, they did badly. So he took one for the team and stopped watching.
I assume that the child actor got into the broadcast booth as part of a Rogers cross-promotional deal. The deal, presumably (please correct me if I'm wrong): the movie publicists pay Rogers enough bucks, and they'll have somebody from the movie throw out the first pitch *and* get a half inning to promote the movie from the broadcast booth. I'd object to this sort of thing, but I suspect that this is one of the ways that Rogers is going to raise the extra bucks that will be spent on the team.
And I love the reaction. You want to support a team that cares, and you just know Zahn cared about that strikeout.
With McDonald up, the Jays down by one, and 0 outs, I don't mind a bunt here. Hopefully Frankie Cat can hit one to the outfield and tie the game.
Zaun has quickly vaulted to Favorite Jay status in my mind. To me, nobody works harder or cares more. He knows what its like to be a long-term backup. He and Reed Johnson embody what the team is about.
Thats ok, as thin skinned as I am.
Vinnie Chulk looked excellent tonight as he has since the season began. I will not be suprised, that in event of emergency he will be the guy most capable of the highest leverage situations, before years end.
Russ Adams following through on a swing = Interference!
That's why I boo him, anyways.
Great decision by Gibbons to bring in Batista here. Even though it's not a "save situation," this is still a crucial situation.
Koskie needs to be moved out of the 4th spot. He's so lost!
If the Jays were the Red Sox they'd have a chance against Mariano... but they're not...
"Single past a diving Jeter!"
28 LOB? That is inexcusable...
Joe Torre runs out to tell Rivera the scouting report
Next three pitches are inside corner
1. Good scouting
2. Rios, whose best hitting is to right, will have to adjust to being pitched inside
On the other hand, I can't help but think "Once again, the Jays clawed back to within a run, got runners on in the ninth, but came up short."
By the way, the Jays' LOB was only 13, not 28. Not a very good stat, anyways...
You're right. However, the Jays only left 13 on base, so I don't see how it's relevant.
Even though that really did look like an unplayable ball, I was hoping gv27 would give a shout-out to the BTF crowd and say just that.
And I agree its not the greatest stat.
28 LOB in a 9 inning game? That would be a record, if it was not impossible. The Jays left 13 men on base but you have to give some credit to the pitchers and also have to allow for luck. First the Yankees were lucky when the ball bounced back hard off the backstop to save a run. Then the Yankees were lucky when Hillenbrand hit the ball very hard, but right at Jeter.
The Jays pitched Rios well in the ninth. Mussina pitched well to Koskie in the third to get the DP with the bases loaded. Jeter made a very good play on Rios in the seventh.
Rather than say its inexcusable, you should provide examples of bad hitting. The other team deserves some credit sometimes too. Specifically Zaun's popup with the bases loaded and one out in the sixth on the first pitch was not good. I can't think of other bad at-bats with RISP.
Hope to clear that up. The Jays team OBP in the game was .390, so obviously it's disappointing that they only had three runs to show for it.
Sometimes it may seem like they did that, but they didn't.
Other than that and the rather painful guest in the booth, good broadcast.
I knew once that kid showed up, Chacin would lose the no-hitter.
Yes, it was only the fourth inning. But still, the no-hitter.
If I can be little bit contraversial. It really bugs me when posters nit pick about the smallest of mistakes by broadcasters. I'm not talking about the most stupid comments especially when they are repeated again and again. I consider that a public service.
Kid Campbell and Tabby are a new team. A new double play combo. Ones a rook. They're working it out.
If anyone wants to call a game over the phone to me in Vancouver I'll pick up the three plus hour tab.
I remember when gv was a rookie in Vancouver. Talented, big and clumsy class guy who pulled it together.
Really? I only saw one replay, so maybe folks can clear this up - but I thought Adams' bat on the follow through clearly came around and got Posada's glove. I was surprised at the time that gv27 and Tabler didn't say so. Was there another replay?
(Just getting home now, and missed a number of key moments. New Trailer Park Boys...)
Tyler, myself and two of Tyler's friends had a mini cheer club gathering in 518. We were lacking both cowbell and drum, not to mention people, but we did an OK job at riling up our section. Hopefully tomorrow will kick of the official CC season with a bang.
Just got home from the game. I wanna ask about Posada's interference, is he playing an angle? I'll read the thread above, it's probably answered.
That Joe Torre is a real tricky dick at killing a rally. Always popping out, endless conferences, pitching changes, was it the 6th inning? Damn.
KT, Huckaby tried to apologize in person and Jeter stared past him like he wasn't there, ignored him until Huckaby left. Nasty, nasty behavior.
I didn't really see last nights play, but if there was no contact than it is a judgment call. Whereas tonights play there was clear contact with the catcher so it's an automatic call. Also if there is no contact, the umpire must take into consideration whether there was intent or if it was just a natural follow through. Again I didn't see last nights, but keep in mind that it happens in a split second and you don't call interference on that type of play unless you're 100% sure there was intent.
I believe the joke goes: what do you call a single to Derek Jeter's left? Single up the middle.
I formed the exact same impression (that's why Posada double-pumped, actually) and Zao handled the rest beautifully.
Zao, if you're able, I'd love to ask you some questions about umpire school and your experiences. cburley@hardballtimes.com is my e-mail...
I'm sure you're talking about me. What I posted wasn't criticism. It was just something that I noticed that some other viewers might not have.
Gv27 reads these threads and from what I know of him, he is a perfectionist. That is a very very good thing because it means that he's going to get better and better at his job. So, in his quest to get better, why shouldn't I assume that pointing out some of the (rare) errors he makes is helping him?
A single to any SS's left is a single up the middle......
I was going with the figure on MLB.com (which says 28 for whatever reason instead of 27 and is approved by MLB and the commissioner's office). I went to bed right after I posted, but should have clarified it.
I realize there's a lot of grey area with that stat, but I like the fact that it takes into account a batter not advancing any runners in a bases-loaded one out (or no out) situation.
By comparison, the Yankees had 11 of such runners LOB.
The Blue Jay missed opportunities that stick out in my mind are the 3rd inning ending by double play with the bases loaded, Hinske flying out in the 5th with two runners on when they had Mussina on the ropes, Zaun's pop-out in the 6th w one out, Hinske and Rios not getting Wells in in the 7th after his double, and of course Rios in the 9th.
If there is a man on first and you hit a double sending him to third, you've had a pretty good at-bat. You don't need the grief of having 1 added to your personal tally of men LOB.
Games like last night's are frustrating. More often than not, however, games with that many baserunners are going to be won. The poor hitting with men in RISP is more the byproduct of random probabilities than a sign of anything more profound, like lack of character, poor intensity, absence of grit, etc.
Accept that sometimes you roll snake eyes and box cars disproportionately and then move on.
I'm not sure if LOB are assigned in that case (the double moving the runner to 3rd). I'd be interested to know though.
Yeah I guess that's the best way to chalk it up. It's harder to think rationally when its the Yankees and the game is more than within reach multiple times...
It's probably not the best idea to watch baseball with a hockey stick in your hands. hahaha
I'll look at Koskie from last night. ESPN has 27 total individual LOB. ESPN credits Koskie with 6 LOB
At bat 1: K, two runners on - LOB 2
At bat 2: DP, three runners on - LOB 3
At bat 3: ground out, two runners on - LOB 2
At bat 4: popout, no runners on - LOB 0
At bat 5: flyout, no runners on - LOB 0
MLB gives Koskie 7 LOB. I guess ESPN credits him with 2 LOB for at bat#2 because at the end of his at bat there were two runners left. This is wrong, it should obviously be 3. I think he should actually be charged with 6 because of the two outs he generated. That is what the individual total would be if there were two consecutive strikeouts instead.
I'm not entirely sure what happens when someone reaches on an error. In this case I would guess that they do not get charged with LOB because an out was not credited, even though there is an AB given.
Thats fair ball. But if we look back on the previous threads the rot I refer to is starting to pop ip.
All I was saying is its early days and I hope the Box community gives him a chance.
I didn't really have your comment in mind when I went on the rant.
Thanks for coming back on it.