How do Zips and PECOTA, two respectable prediction systems, end up with such radically different runs-allowed totals?

If the Jays do allow 863 runs this year, they'll be lucky to sniff 4th place, because this team is not going to score a lot of runs.

I was trying to figure that one out myself. From what I can see ZiPS tends to depressing scoring a little more than PECOTA.

From what I can tell, the biggest difference is the amount of playing time given to Halladay. I should see what else I can find.

I think the PECOTA projections were from when Batista was still a starter. The funny thing is, if you slot Chacin for Batista, there's no real change in the rotation as PECOTA projects them to have near identical ERAs.

Here are the differences I could find:

ZiPS is far more optimistic about the following players:

Halladay (PECOTA ERA is over 30 points higher)
Bush (over 60!)
Towers (over 30)
Batista (over 30)

There's a couple players PECOTA likes better than ZiPS:

Chacin (over 40 points higher in ZiPS)
Chulk (over 40 points higher)

Everyone else is about the same.

ZiPS seems to give more innings to the top pitchers (Halladay gets an extra 40 innings), which makes the ZiPS projections lower.

As well, ZiPS seems to be a lower scoring environment than PECOTA, though I'm not 100% certain about that. It does look that way, though.

Over at Baseball Prospectus, Joe Sheehan has the Jays winning 80 games, finishing in fourth place. He has them allowing 784 runs, though I didn't see how he came up with that number.

Today in prospectus Joe Sheehan did an AL East preview where he has the jays going:

Blue Jays 80-82 RS 765 RA 784

Ranking them 4th behind baltimore and the other two. Actually I'll post the whole division because it is interesting.
Record RS RA
Red Sox 95-69 908 798
Yankees 87-75 865 838
Orioles 84-78 833 825
Blue Jays 80-82 765 784
Devil Rays 58-104 662 886

I'm not sure where he gets those projections either, but they're pretty interesting. The Yankees at 87-75? The Devil Rays at 59-104?!?

Thanks for the heads-up!

When I started to write it Gitz wasn't there, I swear.

One variable that affects the run scored/allowed projections is league-wide trends. The radio guys indicated that the umpires are consciously giving pitchers a higher strike this spring than past years. Whether that will carry over into the regular season remains to be seen.

I've just heard that the Nationals will keep Tyrell Godwin (Rule V pick). They've traded LHP AJ Wideman (Mississauga native) to the Jays for the right to send Godwin to the minors.

Apparently Wideman will go to Lansing.

Sorry if that was off-point, but I thought some might be interested...

Off-point, but interesting. Any time, Max.

Thanks for the heads up, Max! I've started a new thread about the swap.

Didnt know where best to put it, I will probably revisit it in the next game thread, but here is Pond's last spring stats, for those comparing him to Gross.

.338 avg, 1.026 ops, 7 doubles, 4 homers, 6 ribbies, 8bb, 10 k, in 26 games 68 at bats.

I'm going to make my own prediction. 760 runs scored, 835 runs allowed and a 74-88 record sounds reasonable.

Anyone else want to go out on a limb, or have predictions from any other media sources?

Althought they didn't indicate reacords this years editon of Street and Smith has Toronto finishing in 3rd place in the AL East behind the Yankees and Red Sox but ahead of Tampa, who is picked forth, and Baltimore, who is picked to finsih in the basement.

Athlon Sports has picked the Jays to finish last in the AL East again this year.

Predictions.... OMG, how about 79-83. As for runs for and against only higher powers than I have a clue as to what the future holds. I do think the last 2 years were extremes and this year will balance them out and hold more to the norm, whatever that may be ;)

I predict 83 wins. I think last year was a fluke and a mirage. I won't predict RS/RA, but I will guess that the Jays won-lost record will exactly match their Pythagorean record.

The comparison of Gross to Pond I think is unfair- there are a lot of guys that have great springs where it's totally unprecedented, get handed jobs, and then flop. We're seeing it happen all over the majors right now, like it does every year. Emil Brown is gonna be KC's starting RF because he's hitting .459 this spring. I don't think it's a good idea to make decisions based on spring numbers. But Gross has a good track record in the minors, and in his first trip through the majors, did what he always does at a new level- draws walks without hitting for power or average. That's always seemed like a good sign to me. This spring, he's been amazing. Maybe he studied tapes this winter, or worked extra-hard knowing his failure last year made the Jays sour on him a bit. Whatever the case, I think there's a big difference between the Simon Ponds and Emil Browns and Gabe Gross.

I get the pessimist label on this site a lot. Now the one guy I've been excited about for a while gets hot, and y'all are trying to bring me down...

You can list me as 73-89, .451, 730 RS, 810 RA, as per http://www.stephent.com/jays/proj05.html .

Done. Wow, 730 seems low to me, but nothing jumps out at me in your analysis to suggest it should be otherwise. Good stuff!

If I assumed the same league average and park factor as last year, I'd get an RS/RA of 765/850. But I arbitrarily assumed this year's run scoring environment would be 5% lower. Last year's league average was higher than the previous 2 years. The dome's surface might be slower. The vertical strike zone might be bigger (though we've heard that before).

P.S. I get 73/162 = .451, not .448. :-)