However, the Jays strung together a rally in the bottom of the ninth and pushed two runs across the plate for an exciting, although relatively meaningless, victory. The winning hit was provided by pinch-hitter John-Ford Griffin, which brings forth the question, what does the future hold for Griffin? And what have we said about Griffin in the past?
The Jays received Jason Arnold and Griffin in a four-way deal that saw Felipe Lopez end up in Cincinnati, Elmer Dessens in Arizona in a Billy Beane engineered trade where he received Erubiel Durazo. This deal, consummated at the 2002 Winter Meetings, was well-received in these parts. Fans had grown somewhat tired of waiting for Lopez to develop and with rumours circulating that his work ethic was lacking, it seemed reasonable to think that he may never develop into the player he was supposed to. I supported the trade at the time, and many who populated this relatively new website did, too.
Expectations for Griffin were high. In January 2003 Coach wrote, “I’m sure he’ll get a chance in Syracuse before the end of the year, and maybe a September callup to Toronto, just to get acquainted with big-league life….Griffin gets the Paul O'Neill comparison a lot, but I prefer to think of him as a fast John Olerud.” Jonny German warned in February, “I'm suspicious that we're being over-optimistic about one or both of them.”
However, Griffin was not just receiving praise from the founder of Batter’s Box. John Sickels had him ranked as his 40th best prospect in baseball, the second-highest Jay behind Jason Arnold at 23, in his pre-2003 season ratings. Griffin received a B+ grade, which is a very good rating from Sickels.
By mid-2003 Griffin’s rankings in the Jays system had changed. This wasn’t because of any disappointing performance on his behalf, but rather it was because of impressive seasons by Alex Rios and Guillermo Quiroz, both prospects with larger upside than Griffin possessed. Jordan ranked him as the 8th best prospect in the system, but did include him as the DH and number 7 hitter in his possible low-budget 2005 lineup. Gerry was more cautious towards the Jays pitching prospects and ranked Griffin 5th in his July rankings.
However, by the end of the 2003 season people were less optimistic of Griffin then they had been previously. Sickels dropped his grade from a B+ to a B- going into the 2004 season. Baseball Prospectus was more forgiving, attributing his disappointing season to a broken foot and writing, “He hits for more power than Gross and doesn’t have Gross’ platoon issues, but he can really only play left. A healthy season in Syracuse will sort out if he’s the left fielder of the future or a chit to bargain with, but I like his chances of having a monster year at the plate.”
Jordan, clamouring for Griffin to learn first base given his poor throwing arm, joined Prospectus in predicting a big year. “I'm actually expecting Griffin to have a breakout year offensively; but even if he does, will his total package be superior to Gross in the outfield?” Coach wrote, “It's true that Griffin the prospect hasn't done anything to boost his stock, and his window of opportunity in Toronto could be closing. I've never really thought of him as anything but a 1B/DH, hoping that some day he'd be Olerud without the glove. Now he's hurt again. He should go back to AA for a while and get in a good groove before moving up to Syracuse.”
Griffin started out 2004 dismally, but began to turn things around in June with a hot streak. Jordan’s July Farm Report including the following comment, “Griffin couldn’t get anything going up until the last month or so. In July alone, his SLG jumped more than 50 points, he cranked 7 home runs, and he posted a much more respectable 12/21 BB/K rate in 105 AB….If he can keep pushing the batting average up, then Griffin will open 2005 as the starting first baseman in Syracuse and will have a legitimate shot at eventually working his way to what will probably be a wide-open first base in Toronto.”
By the time 2004 was over Griffin had actually finished with worse statistics then he had in his disappointing 2003 campaign. In the outstanding Batter’s Box 2004 Farm Report: Top 30 Prospects Griffin was rated 24th in the Jays system and Jordan’s comment sums up his career and struggles well.
“John-Ford Griffin hit .403 as a junior at Florida State University, in a tough, competitive college conference. Then he went out the next year and left that mark in the dust, batting an amazing .450 for the Seminoles; his 50/23 BB/K rate gave him a tidy little .542 on-base percentage, to go with his .797 slugging percentage. Today, however, that remarkable college career seems like a distant memory.
On the positive side, Griffin continued to add power in his second stint in Double-A, and he’s walking more than every ten at-bats; his OPS by month (603, 737, 791, 903, 791) showed improvement. After spending most of the year striking out in a third of his at-bats, he managed to get that percentage down to a slightly less appalling 27%. But his .248 average is not just low, it’s actually close to his season high: he spent much of the year mired within shouting distance of the Mendoza Line. Griffin has now spent parts of three seasons in Double-A: his batting average in those three years has gone .328-.279-.248 (in an increasing number of at-bats each year). Griffin appears to be running out of prospect power.
I’ve been a booster of his through his struggles, and the possibility still exists that Griffin could launch himself back to glory next season and make a legitimate run at the first-base job in Toronto. This ranking does not properly reflect his chances of making an impact at Syracuse or even Toronto; it does reflect the fact that his star has dimmed. At 25 this November, it seems increasingly likely that he’s not going to figure largely in the team’s future plans.”
There you can see how the opinions of Griffin have progressed over the last two years. Some of these authors weren’t the only ones with high hopes for Griffin. I thought very highly of him too, as far back as when Oakland acquired him in the Jeff Weaver deal. I wouldn’t take back what I said on Griffin either, because based on what I knew of him at the time I had every right to expect him to turn into a reasonably good player, and I suspect others would say the same thing. We weren’t overly optimistic in our outlooks, but rather Griffin has failed to meet our lofty expectations. I would argue this was not a case of Blue Jays fans wearing rose-coloured glasses and deceiving themselves as to the ability of a prospect.
Here is a look at Griffin’s 2004 stats at New Hampshire, compared to his positional average in the Eastern League, as well as the position average for first base, where he may likely end up if he reaches the majors.
AVG OBP SLG EQA Griffin .248 .330 .454 .268 EL Outfield Average .267 .339 .420 .264 EL 1B Average .270 .347 .465 .276
When all was said and done last year, Griffin had slightly outperformed the average outfielder in the league given his slugging ability, but he was behind the average first baseman. He’s going to get an opportunity in 2005 to play for Syracuse, but if his average keeps falling his power alone won’t be able to turn him into a serviceable major league hitter.
Another thing to examine is how Griffin’s eye and ability to make contact have progressed over the last three years. Here’s a look at the percentage of plate appearances, minus hit-by-pitches, in which Griffin has walked or struck out.
Walks Strikeouts 2002 .111 .183 2003 .115 .200 2004 .106 .242
While Griffin’s walk rate has remained relatively consistent, the rise in his strikeout rate is worrisome, especially given that he was spending his third year in Double-A. An inability to make contact in almost one-quarter of his plate appearances, and 27% of his actual at-bats, does not bode well for jumps to Triple-A or the major leagues. I don’t have handy stats here about how much a player tends to strike out in the majors if he struck out a certain percentage of the time in the minors, but even if Griffin’s rate stays the same it is still not a good sign. For example, Hinske last year, with all of his struggles, only struck out in 17.3% of his plate appearances. I’m not entirely sure why Griffin’s rate would consistently be getting worse, but his chances of success greatly diminish unless he can cut down the rate to his 2003 levels, at least.
The Blue Jays 1B/DH situation seems open, as Hillenbrand isn’t a permanent solution and Eric Crozier doesn’t figure to be an everyday player. Griffin needs to demonstrate this year that he’s going to turn into a major league player, because another poor season would basically kill his prospect status.
I’m not sure I see John Olerud in his future, but Sid Bream might be a better comparison if Griffin has a solid season this year. Bream didn’t strike out as much as Griffin will and Griffin may have a bit more power. However, Bream was a slightly above-average hitter in his late twenties and was out of baseball by the time he was 35 and that seems like a reasonable career path for Griffin if he rights himself at Triple-A this year.
As Jordan said in the Farm Report, he’s more likely than Raul Tablado or Carlo Cota to play in the big leagues one day, but this year is basically his last year to prove that he could become a regular. Barring an injury, trade or complete collapse I think we’ll see Griffin in Toronto in September, regardless of how he performances in Syracuse this year. However, it’s up to him to determine this year whether it will be for a cup of coffee or for a prolonged career.
