Sammy Sosa hit another 35 homers in 2004, but left Chicago on a sour note. He now has 574 career homers, and his Baseball Reference comparables read like a "who's who?" of inner-circle Hall of Famers- Mantle, Mays, Mathews, Frank Robinson.
Somehow, I doubt that history will see him this way, but is it possible that he could not be admitted to the Hall of Fame?
Sammy Sosa was signed at age 17 by the Texas Rangers. He hit a respectable .275/.336/.419 in Rookie League that year. Strike zone control was an obvious issue at the beginning of his career as he struck out 51 times in 229 at-bats. He posted less inspiring numbers in low A in 1987 and in high A in 1988. In 1989, he went .297/.358/.448 at double A at age 20 in 273 at-bats, and the Rangers decided he was ready. At least, ready enough to showcase him for a trade. At the deadline, Texas shipped Sosa and Wilson Alvarez and Scott Fletcher to the White Sox for Freddie Manrique and Harold Baines.
Sosa's early career was marked by great promise, but not fabulous achievement. In 1990 and 1991, he showed some power and some speed, but was pretty much overmatched at the plate. This perhaps explains his next move. In late March, 1992, the Sox traded him across town, along with Ken Patterson, for George Bell (who was in the twilight of his career). From 1992 to 1997, he hit .260 with developing power (35 to 40 homers by his supposed prime of age 26-28), but poor plate discipline. Here is where he stood at age 28:
Player G AB H HR W BA OBP SLUG OPS+ Sosa-28 1088 4021 1035 205 277 .257 .308 .469 106 Wynn-28 1018 3636 955 172 597 .263 .366 .464 138 Murphy-28 1038 3787 1040 200 452 .275 .352 .486 126
As you can see, he was miles short of either Jimmy Wynn (remember that Wynn compiled his numbers in the 1960s Astrodome) or Dale Murphy. Both of them were fine centerfielders, as well as great hitters. Sosa was, on the whole, a modestly above average rightfielder.
And then, he went nuts. From 1998-2002, he hit 66, 63, 50, 64 and 49 homers. His strike zone judgment improved dramatically. 2003 and 2004 have seen a return to his former levels.
Curiously, the last name on Sosa's comparable list, according to Baseball Reference is Jose Canseco. They share career OPS+ of 131. And this leads us naturally to a discussion of how to evaluate his age 29-33 peak. We do know that Sammy Sosa has corked his bat, but we do not know how often. There is no suggestion that I am aware of that Sosa used any form of performance-enhancing drug during this time, although his surprising peak at this age and during this period in baseball undoubtedly will cause suspicion when his name comes up for consideration. The safest thing is to stick to facts. The most similar situation is that of Norm Cash. Cash admitted corking his bat during his amazing 1961 season, when he posted a 201 OPS+ (identical to Sosa's 1999 peak). Cash's career OPS+ was 139, but his superficial numbers were not as impressive as Sosa's.
So, what should be done, assuming that he has a typical end-of-career fade from this point? Even if only a minor discounting of Sosa's stats is done to account for the corking, it seems pretty clear to me that he is a lesser outfielder than Bernie Williams, Reggie Smith, Dwight Evans and even Dave Parker. Here is the chart:
Player G AB H HR W BA OBP SLUG OPS+ Sosa-35 2138 8021 2220 574 856 .277 .348 .545 131 Evans-35 2087 7202 1950 325 1095 .271 .368 .478 128 Smith-35 1840 6649 1914 295 837 .288 .366 .491 138 Williams 1804 6964 2097 263 983 .301 .388 .488 130
He wouldn't be in my Hall of Fame (Smith would be in, and Evans and Williams I'll have to think about some more). What will the BBWAA and the Veterans Committee think? My own guess is that the career home run number will be so high that the writers will vote him in. While Cash's context depressed his superficial stats, Sosa's improved his. I don't think the writers will be able to sort this out, but I'd love to be proven wrong about that.
Next up: Barry Bonds
