Success in the draft is a key component of the “plan” for the low budget Blue Jays; “poor” teams cannot afford to sign top free agents and must develop them themselves. JP Ricciardi is a former scout; was Director of Player Development in Oakland; and lists player evaluation as one of his strengths. JP, and his team, must utilize their player evaluation skills to draft and develop major league talent to strengthen the Blue Jays from the inside. The Jays would like to emulate Oakland’s success in the draft; when JP was working for Oakland they drafted Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Barry Zito and Eric Chavez.
I have heard that the Blue Jays minor league system was weak after the Gord Ash era, but is a lot stronger now, but what does that mean to the future of the Jays? I had a number of other questions in my head. Were the Ash-era drafts really bad? How good do the JP drafts look? How do these drafts compare to other successful teams? In this article I will look back and evaluate some of the Blue Jays past drafts. I will also look at the draft success of three other low budget teams who reportedly have strong minor league systems, the Oakland A’s, the Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Indians. I started this article looking for answers to the draft questions but as I answered one question another would arise, and I tried to answer those questions too. As a result this piece is a little rambling but I left it “as is” to show the development of my thoughts.
The Draft
You might not realize that draft odds are a bit like the lottery. Each year teams select forty to fifty players in the draft, supplement them with a number of free agents from North and South America, sign 30 or so players in the Caribbean, and expect that one or two of them make it as major league regulars. That is a 1% to 3% success rate, and those are tough odds. A string of three above average drafts would give you six major league regulars and provide a strong, cheap base for your team; three poor drafts can set your team back for years.
In order to evaluate a draft we have to have a benchmark, we need to know how successful a draft should be. The most detailed study I have seen was published last winter by “Philly Sox Fan” on the Sons of Sam Horn web site. Philly Sox Fan studied draft results from 1987 to 1992 and he found that, on average, 155 players, or roughly five players per team, made the major leagues from each draft. Of those 155, twenty nine, or one player per team per year, had a “useful” career. The other four had short appearances in the big leagues or held on for a while despite poor numbers. Of the 29 useful players that make the major leagues each year three of them are “great” players and twelve are “very good” players, giving a team a 10% chance each year of drafting a great player, and a 40% chance of drafting a very good player.
Bryan Smith, on his Wait Till Next Year web site, recently looked at the 1999 draft and found 93 players, or approx 3 per team, had made the major leagues. Again some of those players only made the big leagues for a cup of coffee.
Bryan also studied the 2000 draft and, in that case, the number of major league players was lower, 73. However some of the class of 1999 and 2000, such as the Blue Jays Dustin McGowan, have not yet made the big leagues. The high school players selected in 1999 and 2000 are 23 and 22 respectively so the numbers of major leaguers will go up as more players arrive. For 1999 and 2000 Bryan had a lower total of major leaguers than Philly Sox Fan, but as his study is relatively recent, more players from those drafts will make it, but many of those will be fringe players. So the benchmark I will use is one useful, or regular, player per draft. Therefore if a team’s draft produces a solid major league player that would be an average draft. If it produces an all-star that would be very good, (approx. 40% chance) and if it produces a perennial all-star that would be excellent (approx. 10% chance).
I looked at the Blue Jays drafts from 1997 to 2003. Because I was using more recent drafts I could not use a scientific method of evaluating the career of these players as most of their careers are just starting. So I subjectively assessed the players as either (a) major league regulars; (b) major league part time players (includes relievers); (c) a player who gets called up for a cup of coffee in the major leagues; and (d) players who still rate as prospects. I have put relievers in the “part time” category as they have smaller influence on a team’s performance, and a reliever is generally drafted as a starter but cannot make it in that role.
1997 Draft
Vernon Wells was selected in the 1st round, #5 overall, and is a major league regular
Mark Hendrickson was picked in the 20th round and is also a major league regular
Orlando Hudson was selected in 43rd round and is a major league regular.
Summary: The Jays had a very successful 1997 draft, three regulars is as good as it gets.
1998 draft
Felipe Lopez was the Jays first pick. Felipe has still not established himself as an everyday player so I will tag him as a part time player.
Jay Gibbons was the Jays 14th pick. Gibbons has had a couple of good seasons with Baltimore after being a rule 5 selection. Again a part time player.
Bob File was picked in the 19th round, Bob is a cup of coffee player
Frank Gracesqui was picked in the 21st round and finally made the big leagues with the Marlins this year, another cup of coffee player
Summary: The Jays 1998 produced two part time players and two players who made it for a cup of coffee, not a successful draft, quantity cannot replace quality.
1999 draft
Alexis Rios was the number one pick and is a major league regular, and possibly a star.
In the 14th round the Jays selected Brandon Lyon who has moved to the bullpen and has had some injury problems. I will put Brandon in the part time player role.
Reed Johnson came in the 17th round. I think Reed will end as a part time player.
Summary: The 1999 draft produced one regular and two part time players, an average draft that could be above average if Rios develops into an all-star.
2000 draft
Miguel Negron was the first round pick and he did show some promise in 2004 but is still a long shot as a prospect.
Dustin McGowan was a supplementary first round pick and is a prospect.
Raul Tablado was a high school pick in the fourth round and had a strong year in Dunedin in 2004
Mike Smith had a cup of coffee with the Jays and is still in the minor league system
Vinnie Chulk spent time with the Jays in 2003 and 2004 and I have elected to move him into the part time category, assuming he is past the cup of coffee level
Vince Perkins was an 18th round selection from junior college and is still a prospect
Ron Davenport was a 22nd round selection and is a prospect
Summary: The jury is still out on the Jays 2000 draft. So far the draft has produced one part time player and a cup of coffee player. However if McGowan, Tablado or one of the other prospects make it the draft will be at least average, and potentially excellent.
2001 draft
Gabe Gross was a first round pick, is still a prospect, and has a good chance of being a major league regular
Brandon League was selected in the second round, is also still a prospect, and also has a good chance of being a major league regular.
Michael Rouse was selected in the fifth round, and at the start of the year was the #8 prospect in the A’s system, but by season end his projection had reduced to utility infielder, per BA.
Summary: Another incomplete verdict on the 2001 draft class, although it could be very good. This was the last draft under the stewardship of Gord Ash. Overall I would say Ash’s draft results were average over the five years I reviewed, but they do have the potential to be above average. From 1997 to 2001 the Jays had one excellent draft (the first one), one average, one unsuccessful and two incomplete. The incomplete drafts have three top prospects, and if they make it then the Ash-era drafts will look better.
Additionally, when we review draft studies we see that first round picks are the most valuable. In a couple of these “Ash” years budget issues forced the Jays to pick cheaper prospects in order to mind the budget and that cost the team by forcing the Jays to “underpick”.
2002 draft, the first draft of JP Ricciardi
Russ Adams, first round selection, probable major league regular
David Bush, second round selection, major league regular
Adam Peterson, fourth round, still a prospect
Summary: The 2002 draft looks like it will produce two regulars and a part timer, a successful draft. It is amazing to see that two years after the draft we have already narrowed down the list of potential major leaguers to three. There are a few other players that still have a chance to make it, at least for a cup of coffee, Jordan DeJong, Bubbie Buzachero, Carlo Cota, maybe Brian Grant.
2003 draft
Aaron Hill, first round selection, prospect
Josh Banks, second round selection, prospect
Shaun Marcum, third round selection, prospect
Jamie Vermilyea, ninth round selection, prospect
Vito Chiaravalloti, fifteenth round selection, prospect
Summary: The 2003 draft is more uncertain than the 2002 draft. Aaron Hill looks like a major leaguer but the other four players listed are unknown, call it inconclusive, but it does look like, at worst, it will be an average draft. One year after the draft we are down to looking at five players. Longer shots are Kurt Isenberg, Justin James and Brad Mumma as a LOOGY.
To summarize, here is a chart of the seven drafts:
One factor that goes into the draft is the selection of high school versus college players. High school players take four to six years to make it to the major leagues while college players can make it in two to three years. Gord Ash had a successful draft in 1997 but he was gone from Toronto before he saw the full benefit of those players. If a GM needs to build through the draft, and has a four to five year time horizon for improving the major league team, he cannot rely on high school players, they just will not be ready in time.
The most important pick is a teams first round pick; those players are the best players, have the greatest chance to make it, and are usually the first ones to arrive in the big leagues. If you mix the source of your first round picks between high school and college players you will mix your expected arrival dates. A look at the Blue Jays current system shows us the impact. The Jays have a lot of prospects at the AAA level with a mix of high school players selected under Ash such as Tablado, McGowan, League, etc., who took four to six years to develop, with college players selected by JP. If the college and high school players arrive together in the major leagues the team will get a double benefit.
To summarize, the average draft will produce one major league regular player. Over his last five drafts Gord Ash’s results were average, potentially above average. JP’s first draft was above average, and his second draft looks promising. If a team can improve its hit rate from one regular player per year to two, they can fill out a roster over three or four years and as a result have fewer holes to be filled by free agents or through trades.
One other point to consider relates to organizational strength. Organizational strength is somewhat a false marker when you are looking for one or two players a year. The most important factor is how many future big leaguers you have in your system. A major league team could have a weak system but within its teams have four all-star prospects, and thereby would have a strong funnel for the major league team. Another team might have a system full of AAA level players who will win a lot of games but not develop into major leaguers. The Blue Jays have a deep system, but will it generate more major leaguers, we don’t know. Now I believe the Jays system is strong with potential major leaguers so this point is not directed at the Jays, but I am just warning that a strong system does not always make a strong parent.
The Jays are trying to emulate the Oakland A’s, another low budget team who has succeeded through strong drafts. The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians are other examples of low budget teams that have succeeded in developing their own players. What has the draft record been for those teams? Is there a direct link between draft success and major league performance? Next time I will look at the draft records for the Twins and A’s over the same time frame.
I have heard that the Blue Jays minor league system was weak after the Gord Ash era, but is a lot stronger now, but what does that mean to the future of the Jays? I had a number of other questions in my head. Were the Ash-era drafts really bad? How good do the JP drafts look? How do these drafts compare to other successful teams? In this article I will look back and evaluate some of the Blue Jays past drafts. I will also look at the draft success of three other low budget teams who reportedly have strong minor league systems, the Oakland A’s, the Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Indians. I started this article looking for answers to the draft questions but as I answered one question another would arise, and I tried to answer those questions too. As a result this piece is a little rambling but I left it “as is” to show the development of my thoughts.
The Draft
You might not realize that draft odds are a bit like the lottery. Each year teams select forty to fifty players in the draft, supplement them with a number of free agents from North and South America, sign 30 or so players in the Caribbean, and expect that one or two of them make it as major league regulars. That is a 1% to 3% success rate, and those are tough odds. A string of three above average drafts would give you six major league regulars and provide a strong, cheap base for your team; three poor drafts can set your team back for years.
In order to evaluate a draft we have to have a benchmark, we need to know how successful a draft should be. The most detailed study I have seen was published last winter by “Philly Sox Fan” on the Sons of Sam Horn web site. Philly Sox Fan studied draft results from 1987 to 1992 and he found that, on average, 155 players, or roughly five players per team, made the major leagues from each draft. Of those 155, twenty nine, or one player per team per year, had a “useful” career. The other four had short appearances in the big leagues or held on for a while despite poor numbers. Of the 29 useful players that make the major leagues each year three of them are “great” players and twelve are “very good” players, giving a team a 10% chance each year of drafting a great player, and a 40% chance of drafting a very good player.
Bryan Smith, on his Wait Till Next Year web site, recently looked at the 1999 draft and found 93 players, or approx 3 per team, had made the major leagues. Again some of those players only made the big leagues for a cup of coffee.
Bryan also studied the 2000 draft and, in that case, the number of major league players was lower, 73. However some of the class of 1999 and 2000, such as the Blue Jays Dustin McGowan, have not yet made the big leagues. The high school players selected in 1999 and 2000 are 23 and 22 respectively so the numbers of major leaguers will go up as more players arrive. For 1999 and 2000 Bryan had a lower total of major leaguers than Philly Sox Fan, but as his study is relatively recent, more players from those drafts will make it, but many of those will be fringe players. So the benchmark I will use is one useful, or regular, player per draft. Therefore if a team’s draft produces a solid major league player that would be an average draft. If it produces an all-star that would be very good, (approx. 40% chance) and if it produces a perennial all-star that would be excellent (approx. 10% chance).
I looked at the Blue Jays drafts from 1997 to 2003. Because I was using more recent drafts I could not use a scientific method of evaluating the career of these players as most of their careers are just starting. So I subjectively assessed the players as either (a) major league regulars; (b) major league part time players (includes relievers); (c) a player who gets called up for a cup of coffee in the major leagues; and (d) players who still rate as prospects. I have put relievers in the “part time” category as they have smaller influence on a team’s performance, and a reliever is generally drafted as a starter but cannot make it in that role.
1997 Draft
Vernon Wells was selected in the 1st round, #5 overall, and is a major league regular
Mark Hendrickson was picked in the 20th round and is also a major league regular
Orlando Hudson was selected in 43rd round and is a major league regular.
Summary: The Jays had a very successful 1997 draft, three regulars is as good as it gets.
1998 draft
Felipe Lopez was the Jays first pick. Felipe has still not established himself as an everyday player so I will tag him as a part time player.
Jay Gibbons was the Jays 14th pick. Gibbons has had a couple of good seasons with Baltimore after being a rule 5 selection. Again a part time player.
Bob File was picked in the 19th round, Bob is a cup of coffee player
Frank Gracesqui was picked in the 21st round and finally made the big leagues with the Marlins this year, another cup of coffee player
Summary: The Jays 1998 produced two part time players and two players who made it for a cup of coffee, not a successful draft, quantity cannot replace quality.
1999 draft
Alexis Rios was the number one pick and is a major league regular, and possibly a star.
In the 14th round the Jays selected Brandon Lyon who has moved to the bullpen and has had some injury problems. I will put Brandon in the part time player role.
Reed Johnson came in the 17th round. I think Reed will end as a part time player.
Summary: The 1999 draft produced one regular and two part time players, an average draft that could be above average if Rios develops into an all-star.
2000 draft
Miguel Negron was the first round pick and he did show some promise in 2004 but is still a long shot as a prospect.
Dustin McGowan was a supplementary first round pick and is a prospect.
Raul Tablado was a high school pick in the fourth round and had a strong year in Dunedin in 2004
Mike Smith had a cup of coffee with the Jays and is still in the minor league system
Vinnie Chulk spent time with the Jays in 2003 and 2004 and I have elected to move him into the part time category, assuming he is past the cup of coffee level
Vince Perkins was an 18th round selection from junior college and is still a prospect
Ron Davenport was a 22nd round selection and is a prospect
Summary: The jury is still out on the Jays 2000 draft. So far the draft has produced one part time player and a cup of coffee player. However if McGowan, Tablado or one of the other prospects make it the draft will be at least average, and potentially excellent.
2001 draft
Gabe Gross was a first round pick, is still a prospect, and has a good chance of being a major league regular
Brandon League was selected in the second round, is also still a prospect, and also has a good chance of being a major league regular.
Michael Rouse was selected in the fifth round, and at the start of the year was the #8 prospect in the A’s system, but by season end his projection had reduced to utility infielder, per BA.
Summary: Another incomplete verdict on the 2001 draft class, although it could be very good. This was the last draft under the stewardship of Gord Ash. Overall I would say Ash’s draft results were average over the five years I reviewed, but they do have the potential to be above average. From 1997 to 2001 the Jays had one excellent draft (the first one), one average, one unsuccessful and two incomplete. The incomplete drafts have three top prospects, and if they make it then the Ash-era drafts will look better.
Additionally, when we review draft studies we see that first round picks are the most valuable. In a couple of these “Ash” years budget issues forced the Jays to pick cheaper prospects in order to mind the budget and that cost the team by forcing the Jays to “underpick”.
2002 draft, the first draft of JP Ricciardi
Russ Adams, first round selection, probable major league regular
David Bush, second round selection, major league regular
Adam Peterson, fourth round, still a prospect
Summary: The 2002 draft looks like it will produce two regulars and a part timer, a successful draft. It is amazing to see that two years after the draft we have already narrowed down the list of potential major leaguers to three. There are a few other players that still have a chance to make it, at least for a cup of coffee, Jordan DeJong, Bubbie Buzachero, Carlo Cota, maybe Brian Grant.
2003 draft
Aaron Hill, first round selection, prospect
Josh Banks, second round selection, prospect
Shaun Marcum, third round selection, prospect
Jamie Vermilyea, ninth round selection, prospect
Vito Chiaravalloti, fifteenth round selection, prospect
Summary: The 2003 draft is more uncertain than the 2002 draft. Aaron Hill looks like a major leaguer but the other four players listed are unknown, call it inconclusive, but it does look like, at worst, it will be an average draft. One year after the draft we are down to looking at five players. Longer shots are Kurt Isenberg, Justin James and Brad Mumma as a LOOGY.
To summarize, here is a chart of the seven drafts:
Regular Part time Cup Coffee Prospect
1997 3
1998 0 2 1
1999 1 2
2000 0 1 1 5
2001 0 0 0 2
2002 2 0 0 1
2003 0 0 0 5
One factor that goes into the draft is the selection of high school versus college players. High school players take four to six years to make it to the major leagues while college players can make it in two to three years. Gord Ash had a successful draft in 1997 but he was gone from Toronto before he saw the full benefit of those players. If a GM needs to build through the draft, and has a four to five year time horizon for improving the major league team, he cannot rely on high school players, they just will not be ready in time.
The most important pick is a teams first round pick; those players are the best players, have the greatest chance to make it, and are usually the first ones to arrive in the big leagues. If you mix the source of your first round picks between high school and college players you will mix your expected arrival dates. A look at the Blue Jays current system shows us the impact. The Jays have a lot of prospects at the AAA level with a mix of high school players selected under Ash such as Tablado, McGowan, League, etc., who took four to six years to develop, with college players selected by JP. If the college and high school players arrive together in the major leagues the team will get a double benefit.
To summarize, the average draft will produce one major league regular player. Over his last five drafts Gord Ash’s results were average, potentially above average. JP’s first draft was above average, and his second draft looks promising. If a team can improve its hit rate from one regular player per year to two, they can fill out a roster over three or four years and as a result have fewer holes to be filled by free agents or through trades.
One other point to consider relates to organizational strength. Organizational strength is somewhat a false marker when you are looking for one or two players a year. The most important factor is how many future big leaguers you have in your system. A major league team could have a weak system but within its teams have four all-star prospects, and thereby would have a strong funnel for the major league team. Another team might have a system full of AAA level players who will win a lot of games but not develop into major leaguers. The Blue Jays have a deep system, but will it generate more major leaguers, we don’t know. Now I believe the Jays system is strong with potential major leaguers so this point is not directed at the Jays, but I am just warning that a strong system does not always make a strong parent.
The Jays are trying to emulate the Oakland A’s, another low budget team who has succeeded through strong drafts. The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians are other examples of low budget teams that have succeeded in developing their own players. What has the draft record been for those teams? Is there a direct link between draft success and major league performance? Next time I will look at the draft records for the Twins and A’s over the same time frame.
