I'm going to roll the dice and say Brandon League. I have this feeling League will become the closer this season and rack up a bunch of saves.

BTW I'll probably be playing Fantasy Baseball for the first time this season. Any Da Box members interested in signing up for Fantasy Baseball from ESPN.com? You're going to need a credit card.

Greg's "shoe-in" of the season...it's a hush puppy

Koskie breaks his leg in April and those of us who went in cheap for Hinske win big with a stellar rebound season!

Hinske hits 30 homers, steals 20 bases and notches 100+ rbi.

Hinske hits 30 homers, steals 20 bases and notches 100+ rbi.

Trouble is, he takes two seasons to do it.

It's gotta be the O-dog breaking the bluejay record for homers by a second baseman.I mean he only needs 19.

Well if you say that you wouldn't waste a high pick on Doc, then I would expect he would be the biggest surprise for you. :)

Will all due respect to Vernon, Roy Halladay is the best player on the Jays.

I'd like to ignore today's Question if possible...

How many teams in the AL have worse rotations than the Blue Jays?

Well I think were better then tampa,detroit,clevland(they got millwood so what),KC,Baltimore,and umm I guese thats it.

League is an interesting idea, but after the Jays' experience with Peterson and Frasor, I think they'll baby League a bit this year. If he does get to close games, he'll probably share this role with Speier, and maybe occasionally Frasor or Ligtenberg.

I would rather see League start games in Syracuse for the first half of 2005. He probably has the best arm in the system, has shown potential as a starter, and is still young. Committing him to the 'pen at this stage seems to me a bit of desperation on the Jays' part--and a capitulation to rookie hype--because our relief corps has been so awful the last few seasons, and because the team had a terrible 2004. After the Escobar debacle, I would have thought the Jays had learned a thing or two.

Off topic, but ESPN's rumour central is reporting that Dennis "Oil Can" Boyd is trying to make a comeback! He's gearing up for the independent league, with aspirations of a full scale MLB return. He hasn't pitched in the majors since '91.

My question to other Bauxites - should he be successful (estimated probability less than 1%) - would this be the longest period for a ballplayer or any other pro sports athlete to mount a comeback? 14 years out of the game is a LONG time.

Well I think were better then tampa,detroit,clevland(they got millwood so what),KC,Baltimore,and umm I guese thats it.

I'd toss in Seattle, Texas and Chicago as well.

I think I'd have the Jays rotation 6th in the AL, after NY, Bos, Minn, Ana, and Oak. They could certainly be better than Oakland too.

Ben Grieve was signed to a minor league contract by Pittsburgh. Smart move. While it is doubtful that Grieve will ever become the player that he looked like he could become at age 21 or 22, he still can hit well enough to play a nice complementary role.

My question to other Bauxites - should he be successful (estimated probability less than 1%) - would this be the longest period for a ballplayer or any other pro sports athlete to mount a comeback? 14 years out of the game is a LONG time.

Probably. I immediately thought of Jim Bouton, but he "only" went eight yeras between appearances for the Astros and Braves.Minni Minoso went 12 years between at-bats for the White Sox, but that was mostly a stunt.

According to the Fan 590, "sources out of New York" are sayin' that the Mets have topped the Marlins' 4 year - $48 million offer to Delgado with a 4 year - $51 million offer.

I wouldn't mind a draft with these experts. Although I haven't reviewed all their picks, I can imagine that if I could get Halladay with a fourth round pick and Wells with a sixth round, I would be able to put together a pretty solid team.

Who would your no.1 pick be? Pujols? Arod?

According to the Fan 590, "sources out of New York" are sayin' that the Mets have topped the Marlins' 4 year - $48 million offer to Delgado with a 4 year - $51 million offer.
I'm rapidly approaching the point of "who cares"

My question to other Bauxites - should he be successful (estimated probability less than 1%) - would this be the longest period for a ballplayer or any other pro sports athlete to mount a comeback? 14 years out of the game is a LONG time.

I don't know if you'd count this or not, but Gordie Howe came out of a 17-year retirement to play one game with the International League's Detroit Vipers in 1997. It wasn't an honest comeback so much as an attempt to set a record for being the only hockey player to play professional hockey in five different decades, or something like that.

Would Boyd have to pitch in the majors again for it to be considered a successful comeback? The league in which Howe made his "comeback" was the hockey equivalent of Triple-A ball.

New Mailbag is up, and mentions the Brantley signing I brought up awhile back, glad to see it is official apparently.

According to the Fan 590, "sources out of New York" are sayin' that the Mets have topped the Marlins' 4 year - $48 million offer to Delgado with a 4 year - $51 million offer.

I figured that Delgado has been holding out for a salary in excess of Beltre and Glaus (in terms of average annual salary).

Glaus was $12.25, Beltre was $12.8.

4 years and $52 million will get to $13.0/year, and I suspect that's where Delgado will ultimately land.

The above-mentioned Brantley signing is Mickey, as Jays 1B coach.

I had to read the mailbag to find out...but I was deathly afraid it was going to be a comeback by Jeff, and the Jays had signed him for $800,000. Whew.

My question to other Bauxites - should he be successful (estimated probability less than 1%) - would this be the longest period for a ballplayer or any other pro sports athlete to mount a comeback? 14 years out of the game is a LONG time

COMN for a Blogger's article on comebacks and some lists. Paul Schreiber holds the reord with 21 years in between.

http://www.all-baseball.com/mikesbballrants/#017145
Oops. NOW click on my name.

If I'm a Canadian fantasy player, I'm playing it very carefully as far as Blue Jays are concerned. This a team with more questions than answers as far as playing time for a whole host of players.

Halladay has to prove he is the Doc of 2003.

Koskie increasingly finds himself on the DL.

If Hinske is really cheap or lasts to the very late rounds he is worth a flyer.

Outside of O-Dog Hillenbrand may be the safest pick in the infield.

I think Rios will be a safe pick fantasy wise. He should increase his power numbers and will swipe more than a handful of bags with the new running game. But I think for Canadian fans he will be very pricey.

Vernon should end up somewhere between his 03 and 04 numbers but will be very pricey in Canada.

Left field, I'm just going to stay away from it, to many questions.

Rotation,

As mentioned Doc has something to prove but I won't go more than $22 on him.

Lily, I doubt he turns in a season like his last but I still think he will be more than useful, $20

Batista, lots has been written, the team needs to announce soon whether he is in the rotation for sure. I assume so. $14. I'd rate Bush about the same in terms of dollar value.

The Bullpen, depends on your fantasy strategy, no set roles again, probably won't be defined till after my draft. I would not pay more than $10 for any Jay reliever at this stage.

One player that really interests me and we'll see the price on draft day is Hill. He might go pretty cheap and could be a great source of runs scored as well as half decent stats in general.

This is a great QOTD. I might think about this some more later. But this is off the top of my head the gray Vancouver morning.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1974886
ESPN's John Sickels has a review of Aaron Hill COMN

Sickels gave Hill a 'B' grade in his book.

One of the comments was that he didn't have the range for SS on turf. I guess word hasn't gotten around that the Jays are changing from the rug to the fake grass.

Oil Can making a comeback? I'd _love_ to see that. Born October 6th 1959 so he'd be 45 this season. Could happen. Very unlikely but it could. He always said that Satchel Paige was his favorite ball-player and this comeback would be Paigian in scope (58 when he made a one game comeback in 1965 after a 12 year retirement). Btw, Paige started one game, threw 3 shutout innings allowing just one hit and had one strikeout.

re Grieve,

At 28, after 8 years and 3200 ABs Grieve has a .367 OBP and .810 OPS.
At 30, after 8 years and only 2200 ABs Catalanotto has a .358 OBP and .815 OPS. Last year in 250 AB Grieve's OBP was .361 and Cat's was .344.

Both are pretty nasty with the glove. Both are LHB with pretty significant platoon splits. One will be a great broadcaster if inclined.

But the Jays signed Cat for 2 years and $5.4M, while Grieve gets his second straight sub-$1M contract...why the discrepancy?

I think the Jays will score nearly 800 runs this season, maybe even hit 800. (Of course, I think they'll give up a few more, so that's not really so good). Someone on this team has to score and plate those runs.

I think Corey Koskie, going from a relatively poor home run park to a relatively good one, will hit 30 home runs, or close to it, and hit 100 RBI as well. But that's IF he stays healthy and plays 145-150 games. The thing about him is, there's not a ton of fantasy depth at third base, so even if he plays 120 games for you he'll help provided your bench isn't too thin (or you have a DL in your league).

Vernon Wells is going to be your classic .300/30/100 outfielder. He won't necessarily reach all three marks in any one season. A lot of people have backed off him because he played hurt some last year, driving down his rate stats. Don't be fooled... look at his second half, after he healed up. He started slow, but he was red-hot for six weeks, then got hurt, then came back long before he was ready and his striding was all wrong, because of the injured calf. So he struggled for a month, then finally got some rest (the Boston series) and came back great after that and hit very well in September. Wells is a very, very smart guy who will make the necessary adjustments down the road. He'll be back to being Vernon Wells this season, and a 900 OPS.

I think Speier will be the closer and notch 30 saves. Don't get in a bidding war for him, but get him - he's going to be terrific.

Other than that, no one jumps out at me, though I am predicting a .300+ average for the O-Dog.

I've wondered the same thing about Grieves. Not comparing him to Cat, but back when everyone was commenting about "There's no one left worth signing", I suggested he looked like he had some decent ability. Why does no one like him? What's wrong with him that even in the real world he has to settle for such a small contract (by mlb standards)?

ESPN is reporting that Delgado is a Marlin.

Thank God.

According to ESPN, Carlos Delgado is now a Marlin; 4 years, $52M. Vesting option on 5th year for $13M.

What's wrong with him that even in the real world he has to settle for such a small contract (by mlb standards)?

Ryan, I agree about Grieve. He is a solid, respectable player that would have enough value to many teams that he should be able to command more than he got. I think, like a lot of athletes, Grieve is a victim of unfulfilled expectations. I remember all the buzz around him when he won ROY. Then when he didn't progress as people expected him to, everyone sort of got down on him and failed to realize that, while not as spectacular as they expected him to be, he was never the less a servicable ML player. A good parallel to Grieve would be Derek Coleman in the NBA, although Coleman had even more potential in his sport before settling into relative mediocrity. Unfortunately, it seems that Hinske may be headed down that same path...

According to ESPN, Carlos Delgado is now a Marlin; 4 years, $52M. Vesting option on 5th year for $13M.

Well, I'm glad he didn't end up with Baltimore or the Mets, as I really can't stand either of those teams...

Good bye and good luck in FLA, Carlos.

Man, the NL East is gonna be stacked next season. Any team not moving to Washington could easily win the division. I'm just glad Carlos is out of the AL.

Man, the NL East is gonna be stacked next season. Any team not moving to Washington could easily win the division..

Theoretically, yes. However, until they finally lose out, my money is still on Atlanta.

Sloane may be a jackass, but he certainly managed to squeeze out a great deal for his client. For example, he made the Mets and Marlins bid against a team he had no intention of dealing with (Texas). If the Rangers weren't involved, my guess is that his deal would have topped out at 45 MM for 4 years. By involving the Rangers, a team that likes to throw money around, he instead got Delgado Beltre money (64 MM over 5 years, assuming he stays healthy).

And yes, I'm very glad Carlos is out of the AL East (and out of the American League altogether).

Delgado is probably also happy about being so close to Puerto Rico...

As Jacko points out, 5/65 (with the option) is Beltre money.

Hands up all those who thought that Delgado would get Beltre money. Not you Mr. Sloane. You dont count.

I figured all along that Baltimore was the front-runner, given their deep pockets and need for a 1B.

And then I figured that Minaya would continue his spendathon and nab him.

But Florida makes sense, even if they are the unlikeliest of teams (at least to me) to sign him. Maybe they simply bid the most and that was the sum and whole of Delgado's criteria (and if so, that's entirely his prerogative), but you can't help feel that there were other factors:

* he's close to home
* he's in the NL so won't have to DH beyond inter-league games
* he won't have to deal with the NY media and fans
* he's got a decent chance to be in a divisional race

It's too bad he won't be in the AL, especially the East, since it means we won't be seeing much of him, at least not without a satellite dish.

Aside: NY city was one of the bluest in the last election and yet this is where Delgado heard the most grief about his decision to not stand for God Bless America. Are NY baseball fans not red/blue in the same proportion as the city itself? Is baseball a republican sport?

Hands up all those who thought that Delgado would get Beltre money. Not you Mr. Sloane. You dont count.

Depends upon which point during the offseason you're talking about. At the outset, I though Delgado would (or at least, should) command more than Beltre. After the market seemingly dried up, however, I didn't think Carlos would get quite this much. Also, if the Marlins, owned by notorious tightwad Jeffrey Loria, can sign Carlos to a contract like this with $60 million already committed to next season's payroll, what the hell does that say about Mr. Rogers???

Are NY baseball fans not red/blue in the same proportion as the city itself?

Even if the NY fans agreed with Delgado's objections to US policy, it doesn't surprise me terribly that they would still boo simply as a matter of patriotism.

Is baseball a republican sport?

Oh my, I certainly hope not.

I think Florida is the best choice for Carlos. I don't think he would standup well to the pressure in New York. Florida has a good team and not tough media coverage (If he played for the Dolphins it would be a different story). He won't have to worry about being raked over the coals every time he drops a popup or a throw to first base or when he strikes out with the bases loaded in a key spot. I am glad he's gone and I'm also glad he didn't sign in the AL so he can't haunt us on a regulay basis.

Also, if the Marlins, owned by notorious tightwad Jeffrey Loria, can sign Carlos to a contract like this with $60 million already committed to next season's payroll, what the hell does that say about Mr. Rogers???

It says that Mr. Rogers is not trying to extract taxpayer money for a new stadium, whether it be in the city his team currently plays in, or any other (hello, Las Vegas).

Theoretically, yes. However, until they finally lose out, my money is still on Atlanta.

This has got to be the year Atlanta burns, isn't it? I mean, just how many player departures can Cox/Mazzone treat as neglible? (Maddux, Glavine, Sheffield, Lopez, Drew... am I missing anyone?)

Good God, they're counting on Raul Mondesi this year. That surely has to portend bad things.

It's too bad he won't be in the AL, especially the East

IMO, I'm glad he is as far away from the Jays as possible. I wouldn't want to see him hit against us 6+ times a year. It would be like having your best friend all of a sudden become your enemy. At least I can root for him now.

I though Delgado would (or at least, should) command more than Beltre.

Really?

Beltre

• is significantly younger
  
• plays a more demanding defensive position
  
• plays it better than Delgado plays his
  
• had significantly better numbers playing in a pitchers park
  
• has no lingering injury concerns (cf Delgado's knee/back)
  

At the beginning of the off-season, the question was who'd get more - Beltran or Beltre. The fact that Beltre didnt get that $90mm deal was somewhat surprising to me.

As a Mets/Jays fan, this sucks. I really wanted to root for Delgado next year, and I think between him, Pedro and Beltran, the pressure would be spread out enough to not make feel the NYC thing too much.

But that deal has the potential to kill the Marlins if Delgado falters. I doubt he will, but he could. If I was the Mets, I'd have gone higher to keep him out of a Marlins uniform, but theres a big chance he never wanted to play for them in the first place.

A dedicated thread is up to discuss Carlos's departure.

If anyone wants to laugh, COMN to check out the Orioles message board over at ESPN (I didn't link to Oriolehangout because I assume they are all making excuses for the O's, and what's the fun in that?)

They are absolutly DESTROYING the Orioles front office for absolutly blowing it this off-season. Can you blame them? I'd feel the same way too if the Jays had that much money to spend, promised to make a run, and then ended up getting only Steve Kline in return. Now, Steve Kline is a fine relief pitcher, but when he is your marquee signing, you know you just blew goats.

Hey, atleast JP made the effort of getting Koskie, Hillenbrand, nearly getting Clement. He was active, anyone who wants to complain about him, imagine being an Oriole fan right about now.

With all that being said though, I feel not one bit of remorse for those sorry hags.

3rd place here we come!

All the fantasy players will be excited to hear that PECOTA's are out. It look like it's gonna be a rough year for the Jays-PECOTA sees one guy with 20 HR.

http://forums.espn.go.com/espn/forum?room=mlb_bal
Of course, you could send an email to the Orioles forum if you'd like... but if you'd like to see sad, upset, and pathetic fans showing their utter disgust for their organization... Now COMN. :)

Dave, tell em we'll give them Hinske...that's something. Interesting, PECOTA likes Crozier too, just like ZIPS. They've got him going .268/.355/.470. I guess PECOTA wasn't watching him swing at SkyDome in September.

By involving the Rangers, a team that likes to throw money around,

This is wrong. It wasn't wrong two, three and five years ago, but tell me, just exactly what kinds of money have the Rangers thrown around since Bucky Showalter arrived on the scene?

Dave, tell em we'll give them Hinske...that's something.

At this point, I'd trade in Hinske for some sushi (preferably California roll) with some wassabi on the side. Seriously though, seeing as how they have a walking corpse currently slated to play first (a walking corpse on viagra I should add)... I don't think Hinske would be THAT BAD of a deal for him.

I guess PECOTA wasn't watching him swing at SkyDome in September.

But they probably did see that diving catch in the stands ;)

That's odd that ZIPS and PECOTA would both be so generous with their projections for Crozier, I wasn't that impressed with him... but what do I know? He seems like a major strikeout liability but it appears he's got some decent pop if he could throw on some extra weight during the off-season.

* he's close to home
* he's in the NL so won't have to DH beyond inter-league games
* he won't have to deal with the NY media and fans
* he's got a decent chance to be in a divisional race

* Florida was desperate for a lefthanded power hitter (far more so than Texas, New York, or Baltimore).

In fact, I think Juan Pierre was their only projected starter who bats lefthanded:

1B: Conine (R)
2B: Castillo (S)
3B: Lowell (R)
SS: Sea Bass (R)
RF: Encarnacion (R)
CF: Pierre (R)
LF: Cabrera (R)
C: Loduca (R)

Ok, so there's two guys who bat lefthanded. Anyhow, you get the idea. Delgado will play a huge role in balancing out that lineup.

All the fantasy players will be excited to hear that PECOTA's are out. It look like it's gonna be a rough year for the Jays-PECOTA sees one guy with 20 HR.

No kidding. Looks like quite a rough year for the Jays coming up. Here are the expected VORPs for the Jays starting 9 and their rotation. To figure out which VORP goes with which player, you'll have to buy a subscription. :)

The Starting 9

33.4
29.9
17.6
14.1
13.9
13.1
 7.7
 5.4
 5.1

The Rotation

36.7
22.1
20.3
11.9
10.4

If you saw the numbers, I think you'd be a little surprised in the order of the players. Like ZiPS, PECOTA indicates the Jays would have been much better off just giving Crozier 500 ABs to see what he could do. Like before, I don't agree.

Either way, those aren't pretty. PECOTA sees most of these guys being at most 2 games above replacement. Thus unless one (or more) of the stars gets hurt, injuries shouldn't impact this team too much.

(a walking corpse on viagra I should add)...

I'll be stunned if no one beats me to this line, but does that make him a stiff?

BTW, Pecota has that stiff at .255/.355/.461. Our boy Eric checks in with a nifty little .259/.338/.442. Ouch.

Anyone else see Miguel Batista in the Dominican World Series? He was playing for a team with a yellow jersey and he was getting tagged. One ball was hit to dead center (the stadium they were playing in was like a Dominican Pac Bell/SBC park) and the center fielder made a great catch, it made Sportscenter.

I also saw Eric Byrnes, Miguel Tejada, and get this...

Lois Polonia was also playing in the game.

Beltre had significantly better numbers playing in a pitchers park

For one season.

OPS+ the last 5 years (most recent first):

Delgado / Beltre
128 / 163
160 / 89
153 / 98
141 / 93
182 / 116

You basically know what you're getting out of Delgado. Beltre could be all over the place.

And I think that the Dodgers basically chose not to re-sign Beltre tells you that they didn't feel all that confident that 2004 was repeatable.

You basically know what you're getting out of Delgado. Beltre could be all over the place.

Well. You're also getting Delgado on the wrong side of his career arc. Sure. He could go all Barry on the NL, but your certainly paying for past performance, not necessarily future returns.

And with respect to Beltre's OPS+ - what should be taken into consideration is that Beltre essentially lost 2 years ('01 and '02 IIRC) of production due to that botched appendectomy.

Plus. Beltre is *25*. And put up a OPS+ of 163. Delgado at 25 clocked in at 125.

And I think that the Dodgers basically chose not to re-sign Beltre tells you that they didn't feel all that confident that 2004 was repeatable.

Or that McCourt is trying to run a major league ball team on the cheap, as has been argued in some corners.

Chuck,

This has got to be the year Atlanta burns, isn't it?

Well, I think their pitching will be very good this year. Smoltz will be back in the rotation along with Hudson, Ramirez will be healthy hopefully, and Kolb is at least a serviceable closer, so the dropoff at the back end of the bullpen (compared to last year) shouldn't be that bad. This may look like the year the streak finally ends, but really, last year looked worse for the Braves than this year does, and we all know how that turned out...

jsoh,

Beltre

is significantly younger

Yeah, but really, so what? Youth has become badly overrated in baseball today IMO. Carlos is showing no signs of age-related drop-off.

plays a more demanding defensive position

plays it better than Delgado plays his

OK, I'll give you that one.

had significantly better numbers playing in a pitchers park

Had better numbers in his contract year, the one and only time he's ever lived up to expectations. Carlos is a proven and reliable producer. That is what IMO makes him much more valuable than Beltre.

has no lingering injury concerns (cf Delgado's knee/back)

I think Carlos has shown he's healthy again. I wouldn't be concerned about that at all.

You're also getting Delgado on the wrong side of his career arc.

Can you actually substantiate that, or are you basing it purely on age?

Or that McCourt is trying to run a major league ball team on the cheap, as has been argued in some corners.

On the cheap with a $90 million+ payroll. Mr. Rogers should be so cheap...