What do you have to do if his prediction is right? :)

It's up to Robert to suggest a counter-challenge, though I'm sure he'd be happy to hear advice on what he should ask for.

How about making NFH wear a Jim Sundberg jersey? I understand he's not very popular in TO.

My counter-challenge is:

Shea Hillenbrand must post an OBP of .350 of better at the All-Star break in 250 PA or more.

If he should do so, I will purchase and wear a Shea Hillenbrand jersey for all second half games that I attend (as a paying customer).

If he should not do so, Named for Hank will purchase two bobbleheads for me: Vladimir Guerrero and Tim Raines Expos bobbleheads.

Should Shea be traded for players deemed to be more valuable than Adam Peterson (at the time of the trade) before the ASB, the challenge is void.

Dudek, you'd better be ready to pony up.
I think you're losing this bet, hands down.

Grand Funk out.

Dudek, are you suggesting if Hillebrand posts a .300/.330/.550 line, he'll have been a bad investment?

Seeing how Hillenbrand has never posted a .350 OBP my money is on Robert.

Dudek, you'd better be ready to pony up.
I think you're losing this bet, hands down.

His career OB% is .322. In 2003 it was .314. I think Robert's pretty safe here.

How about .350 OBA or .500 slugging?

Or .350 OBA or 50 RBIs (halfway to 100) at the All Star break?

Or .350 OBA or 50 runs scored at the break?

Robert, your counter-offer sounds quite reasonable. I'm curious, would you accept additional conditions, though? Other ways for Hillenbrand to "win"?

For instance, if he leads the team in an offensive stat of some kind?

If not, I'll still take your offer. Though I'm a little troubled that if you win, you get something, and if I win, you get something.

Dudek, are you suggesting if Hillebrand posts a .300/.330/.550 line, he'll have been a bad investment?

Are you suggesting that there's even a remote possibility of Shea slugging .550?

NFH Challenges Mike Moffatt!

Mr. Mike Moffatt, I formally issue this challenge to you: should Mr. Shea Hillenbrand of the Toronto Blue Jays have a SLG of .550 or over at the All-Star break, you will purchase and wear a Hillenbrand jersey and wear it to any remaining games you attend this season.

Do you accept, Mr. Moffatt? Do you back your words with your pride and pocketbook?

Are you suggesting that there's even a remote possibility of Shea slugging .550?

Sure its a remote possibilty - In 2003, Greg Myers had a slugging percentage of 561 at the All Star Break

Mr. Mike Moffatt, I formally issue this challenge to you: should Mr. Shea Hillenbrand of the Toronto Blue Jays have a SLG of .550 or over at the All-Star break, you will purchase and wear a Hillenbrand jersey and wear it to any remaining games you attend this season.

Done on the following condition:

If you're wrong, you'll donate $20 to The London Food Bank. I'll even let you do it in your own name, so you can have the tax-writeoff. :)

Aaron... please go to bed! Ted has obviously been keeping you awake for the past half month straight... You obviously need some sleep.

And please don't say that you're actually thinking straight!?!

Shea's GPA over his career

2001: .229
2002: .263
2003: .258
2004: .273

If Shea's maintains a GPA of .280, he's a succesful acquisition - If he maintains a GPA of .270, he's an adequate acquisition

Moffatt, I agree to your terms.

But don't be mistaken: I'm merely suggesting that these things are possible, not that I strongly believe that they will happen. Personally, I have no idea of what Hillenbrand will do this coming season.

bd, I am running on fumes over here. But it's a fun feeling.

Talk about a sucker bet. If the idea is that Hillenbrand has to do something he's never done before (a .350 OBP) to be useful to the Jays, then you may as well make the wager that he hits 30 home runs or steals 30 bases.

NFH,

Since we're about the same size, I can buy and wear the shirt once and then give it to you if you prefer.

I personally don't think Shea will be an asset unless he has a reasonably high OBP, but if you like, Shea can win the bet by getting more than 1 extra-base hit per 9 at-bats (not PA) while posting an OBP of no less than .330 OBP in 250+ PA by the ASB.

Dudek, you're on.

http://me.woot.net
There's a bit of a hole in the challenge - what if Shea is traded for a whiteboard marker and a box of used rags instead of a useful player? Does the challenge continue to his new team?

Okay,

So the conditions are agreed:

Shea/NHF wins if

A) He posts a .350 OBP or better

or

B) Posts a .330+ OBP AND gets more than 1 XBH per 9 AB

... by the all-star break with at least 250 PA with the Blue Jays.

If I lose I buy and wear a Hillenbrand shirt once to Skydome and it then becomes property of NFH.

If I win I get Vlad and Rock bobbleheads (yippee!).

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to think about how I'm going to rearrange my bobble head collection when the two newcomers arrive.

Joe,

I think I should win the bet if Shea is traded for something worth less than Adam Peterson.

I agree with Robert about the trade. However, "worth more than Adam Peterson" will have to be determined by a panel of Batter's Box regulars that does not include Robert or myself.

BTW,

The original conditions stipulate that if Shea is traded for something worth MORE than Adam Peterson the bet is called off. After all, they will have invested over 2 million dollars in Shea by the ASB, which has to count as debit against any gains made through trade.

Right. And I don't want to get into the sticky morass of trying to figure out exactly how much a traded-for player is worth in dollars to determine whether I "win" the challenge or not. So if a panel of experts concedes that the traded-for player is "better" than Peterson, the bet is called off.

If, counting the money already spent on Hillenbrand, the trade still favors the Jays wouldn't NFH win. Hillenbrand would be a good investment. Peterson plus $2+ mil < players acquired in trade is a plus for the Jays...

Robert, if Hillenbrand has an OBP of .350 for a Jays team that's 5-10 games under .500 and 10-15 games out of the division lead at the break, would you actually consider it to be a wise investment? Or is this just being set as a bar as it's the best chance you have of seeing a Guerrero/Raines type set of corner outfielders in Toronto in the next 5 years?

Yup. My bobble head outfield will be Raines in left, Vernon Wells in centre and Vlad in right. Sweet.

Are you suggesting that there's even a remote possibility of Shea slugging .550?

Sure its a remote possibilty - In 2003, Greg Myers had a slugging percentage of 561 at the All Star Break


Yeah, he also had an obp of .428...

What happens if Hillenbrand gets injured though? Is that a win for Robert?

It would seem that a flukeish or unexpected injury (kindof like what happened to all the Jays by the allstar break last year) wouldnt be kosher with the deal, especially given that Hillenbrand isnt historically injury prone.

Since the value of a win is about $2 million per season (maybe a little more this offseason). And since the value of Hillenbrand is likely going to be about $4 million (we still don't know, right? He's arb eligible and made less than 2.5 mil last year) and since the all star break is about half way through the season it seems like Hillenbrand was a good investment if his VORP is more than 10 at the all star break.

This is the most fun thread I have ever read on the Box.

I have to agree with Tyler here... Hillenbrand could post an OPS of .900 but if the Jays are still losing then all he's accomplishing long-term is blocking the development of our younger and cheaper hitters. Ricciardi's goal should not be mediocrity (i.e. a .500 record), it should be to make the playoffs which would require 90+ wins to be in the hunt. As I mentioned before, one could argue that if he performed well he would make good trade fodder and would yield a better prospect than we gave up, but, unless that prospect were truly something special, that would still not be worth the money we spent and the lost development time (and that doesn't factor in the possibility that he will not perform at a standard high enough to obtain a good return in trade, and it doesn't factor in the lost opportunities for future transactions that may not fit in our budget).

Kudos on a really fair bet. On one hand all Shea need do is repeat last year and get two measly extra walks or even HBP's. Given Shea's age, this may be a reasonable proposition. On the other hand, Robert obviously feels last year was out of the orinary and Shea will not hit for enough average to keep up his OBP. Again this is reasonable given Shea's career numbers.

Should be very interesting to watch.

Hillenbrand could post an OPS of .900 but if the Jays are still losing then all he's accomplishing long-term is blocking the development of our younger and cheaper hitters

Not if those young hitters are not ready for the major leagues yet (which I believe to be the case). I'd rather these budding big leaguers to be improving in AAA ball than in the big leagues in 2005, as the Jays will be horribly out of it and the players would simply be honing their craft on a bad team while collecting service time towards arbitration and FA years.

okbluejays: Hes also putting rears in the stands.

Baseball in TO is not going to survive based on diehard fans watching prospects. More people than you know are the casual fan who just wants to see a win when they go out to the park.

Also for the Dudek I would like to propose another "out" for you: Shea hits into 12 GIDPs before the all star break.

Another possible sidebet could be made on Gabe Gross at Syracuse.

If he's truly ready for the show, he should eat AAA pitchers for breakfast. Anything less than a 400 OBP and a 500 SLG would have to be considered a disappointment, yes?

Actually, doesn anyone know the MLE translation factors between the International League and MLB? It would be interesting to work backwards and see what sort of raw numbers Gross would have to post at AAA to be equivalent to a typical Hillenbrand season...

I second that, Andrew K.
For the good of the team I find myself rooting for NFH to win this one. However, I can't help but find myself agreeing with everything Robert has written on this debate over the past few days. I want Hillenbrand to work out well, but I just can't see it happening.

then all he's accomplishing long-term is blocking the development of our younger and cheaper hitters

I don't see Shea blocking anyone. Hattig needs a year at AAA and Crozier is not likely to be a long term soultion. While his numbers at AAA last year were nice, the reality is that the Indians traded him to the Jays when Phelps was put on waivers. You can bet the Indians will be surprised if he ever makes it. Gross needs more AAA time in my opinion to develop more power. I would bring him up midseason if he hits well in AAA. Who else is Shea blocking?

I don't like seeing Peterson let go, but can't criticise the deal that much because it makes sense to have more depth than less. Anyone who was hoping for a starting 9 including Adams, Gross, Rios, & Crozier was expecting too much. Let the young guys prove themselves in AAA, then bring them up when they are ready - not before.

okbluejays: Hes also putting rears in the stands.

Really? Is there going to be an attendance spike because the Blue Jays signed the Shea-Hey Kid to be their DH, instead of Phelps, Gross, or Cat? If that's true, great, but I honestly doubt that it will result in even one extra ticket sold, unless he has a large contingent of family and friends in Toronto. He's a one-time all-star, he's (barring a Hinske trade) stuck DH'ing, he's not a big power threat, he's not Canadian, he's not a star player, etc. If lots of people decide to spend money to see Hillenbrand, great, but I strongly doubt that's the case.

he's a bigger name than gross as of now. Furthermore, any changes via trades excites average fans. Not saying that the attendance will increase dramatically because of Hillenbrand, but it will heighten some people's interest.

On the contrary, I think that given the Epstein comment, it's entirely possible that the Hillenbrand signing might turn off any fan support coming from the GLT (Gay/Lesbian/Transgendered) Market, which is a surprisingly influential and definitely affluent market for businesses to tap. (Full disclosure: I work for a company that targets and has won a number of awards for its GLT marketing, which is also how I know about its influence and affluence.)

fan support coming from the GLT (Gay/Lesbian/Transgendered) Market

You guys are totally missing the bi, two-spirited and inter-sexed communities :-)

It's an interesting point, because that is a market the Jays seem to value. They had the Pride event last year, and even now they're sponsoring a play about a ballplayer who comes out of the closet.

Actually maybe this is just my own personal experience, but I know already of a few people that getting more excited about the season because of the Hillenbrand trade. These are not diehards fans, they are casual fans, Im not sure they even know who Hillenbrand is. They dont care about sabremetrics, probably dont even know what the word means, all they know is that they read or heard that the Jays traded a B prospect to get a .300 hitter and they like that idea. Whether this is just my own personal experience or can be applied in more general terms, and whether or not this translates into more ticket sales I cannot say.

I'm sure the gay community would be shocked, absolutely shocked, to hear that the vernacular of some professional athletes includes terms most of us consider derogatory.

It's an interesting point, because that is a market the Jays seem to value. They had the Pride event last year, and even now they're sponsoring a play about a ballplayer who comes out of the closet.

I'm pretty sure that the Jays don't consider last years Pride event to be a success, at least in terms of moving tickets. I was at the game, and the attendance was as poor as ever. Of course, having it on the big Friday night of Pride Week (is it a week?) may not have been the best thing to do.

On the contrary, I think that given the Epstein comment, it's entirely possible that the Hillenbrand signing might turn off any fan support coming from the GLT (Gay/Lesbian/Transgendered) Market, which is a surprisingly influential and definitely affluent market for businesses to tap.

Out of curiosity...have their been any studies done on marketing to GLT people? I wonder if it's a market that's worth it for the Jays to actively pursue-it seems to be that there are other markets which are more readily tapped, where you might not have to build an interest in the product. Of course, the whole idea of marketing to the GLT community assumes that there is one, so to speak. I don't know that you can say that, any more than you can say "I'm marketing to the white community." Too much diversity within the community, would be my point.

In any event, a third baseman who uses the term faggot in interviews is probably a negative in this regard.

They dont care about sabremetrics, probably dont even know what the word means, all they know is that they read or heard that the Jays traded a B prospect to get a .300 hitter and they like that idea.

EXACTLY.
For those seamheads in here who enjoy arguing about mundane, obscure stats, Hillenbrand may not seem like much of an aquisition.
BUT, to the general public who have for years and years seen the Jays do nothing but drop salary and wallow in mediocrity (mainly because of the LOOONG shhadow Delgado's albatross of a salary threw), they see this and the Koskie signingn and the Koch signing and the SS signing as clear indicators that the Jays are TRYING. TRYING to improve. TRYING to lure players here and put an entertaining product on the field. And, if that is the general perception, which I think it definitely is, OF COURSE Shea Hillenbrand and the other new Jays are going to translate into more tickets sold. It's fairly elementary.

Grand Funk out.

Not to diminish the offensiveness of Hillenbrand's remark, which was childish, demeaning and worthy of opprobrium, but I think it's about time we stop hitting him over the head about it. I don't think it's accurate to say he "uses" it in interviews; we know that he once used it an interview, and for all we know, he immediately regretted it the second it came out of his mouth.

Now, if he uses it again, or otherwise behaves in an offensive, anti-social manner, by all means he should be fair game for criticism. But I'm willing to bet he's not the only Blue Jay to use words that make us cringe; some of the people criticizing Hillenbrand are the same ones criticizing JP for not signing Steve Kline this offseason, and anyone who's read the GQ piece on Kline from September, 2003 surely knows what a filthy piece of work he is.

Addendum to my above comment:

It would be nice if the Jays could NOT tank everytime they have a huge crowd show up. How many 'cheap' nights did they have last year where they packed 35,000 or 40,000 folks in there, and then go out and get trounced?

Shea and the New Boys (I think I'll copyright that) will bring more people in. But, they'll only stay if our Fightin' Jays are entertaining and can put some bloody W's on the board. Both of which I think they'll do this year in more abundance than last.

Grand Funk out.

Shea and the New Boys (I think I'll copyright that) will bring more people in. But, they'll only stay if our Fightin' Jays are entertaining and can put some bloody W's on the board. Both of which I think they'll do this year in more abundance than last.

What do you think the attendance will be this year, then?

And would you like to wager on it? :)

They dont care about sabremetrics, probably dont even know what the word means, all they know is that they read or heard that the Jays traded a B prospect to get a .300 hitter and they like that idea.

Not to mention 80 RBI, something only ONE Blue Jay managed to do last season.

For those seamheads in here who enjoy arguing about mundane, obscure stats, Hillenbrand may not seem like much of an aquisition.
BUT, to the general public who have for years and years seen the Jays do nothing but drop salary and wallow in mediocrity (mainly because of the LOOONG shhadow Delgado's albatross of a salary threw), they see this and the Koskie signingn and the Koch signing and the SS signing as clear indicators that the Jays are TRYING. TRYING to improve. TRYING to lure players here and put an entertaining product on the field

I dunno, is the SS / Koch signings a clear indicator that the Jays are trying, moreso than the Valerio de los Santos / Terry Adams / Kerry Ligtenberg signings? My point about Hillebrand isn't that he's a bad signing, but that he's not really the kind of guy to boost attendance. How many people can actual imagine themselves saying "I want to go to the Jays game today, Shea Hillebrand is batting second and DHing"? Really, how many individual players could (by themselves) boost Toronto's attendance, if the team isn't winning?

The Jays are trying, but they're also coming off a last place finish, the loss of Delgado, and an off-season in which they didn't get their number one target. They're trying, that's good, they've got a number of good and exciting players, but I don't think that the Hillenbrand signing will be a catalyst for better attendance. Now, if they start playing better and start winnings games (which is almost certain, given the horrible luck they had in 2004), and the Skydome gets some nice renovations, then attendance should rise, but Shea-Hey shouldn't have much to do with it.

Signing of players like Hillenbrand is a good way for the Jays to get some positive press and make people think 'maybe they will be good'. Much like the Hentgen signing last winter. If the team gets off to a good start people will notice a lot quicker, and that will get fans into the seats quicker. If they do 'nothing' (ie: let Delgado go and not sign anyone else) and start off good the general public would be less likely to notice until mid-season.

Now, if they start like last season then no amount of good press will help.

Well, for what it's worth, after I sort of stopped watching baseball after the '94 strike, I started coming pack to Skydome to watch Roger Clemens pitch more than to see the Jays' play.

Now, Hillenbrand is no Clemens, but to say he's worth 0 in extra attendence is pretty clearly wrong. Whether he's wort 10 or 10 000 over a season, I can't say.

In any event, a third baseman who uses the term faggot in interviews is probably a negative in this regard.

It was on a sophmoric morning radio show. Calling it an interview is being generous.

Seeing how Hillenbrand has never posted a .350 OBP my money is on Robert

Ah, but he has been Mr First Half in the past. His career line prior to the ASB is .308/.345/.491.

I was talking with one of my friends today, he's what you call a casual fan. I was talking about going to opening day with him and he mentioned he was excited to see the new Jays play. There always is that excitement of seeing the new of unknown, that's what brought me to Alex Rios' first game, so I think it'll bring a few fans out, even if for only a game or two.

If Hillenbrand hits .290/.350/.480, I'm on the Shea bandwagon.

Shea Hillenbrand must post an OBP of .350 of better at the All-Star break in 250 PA or more.

In other news, MEN FROM MARS HAVE LANDED!!. Which will not nearly as surprising.

It would be nice if the Jays could NOT tank everytime they have a huge crowd show up.

Well, I think that's a tradition now. Goes back to the Tim Johnson era, at least.

They dont care about sabremetrics, probably dont even know what the word means, all they know is that they read or heard that the Jays traded a B prospect to get a .300 hitter and they like that idea.

This is absolutely true, and yet... Koskie and Hillenbrand hit 40 HRs last year, drove in 151 runs, and hit about .275. I don't know why fans would get excited by that when they didn't get that excited when the Jays had one guy who could do that all by himself. In, like, half the at bats. Maybe they will, who knows.

For those seamheads in here who enjoy arguing about mundane, obscure stats, Hillenbrand may not seem like much of an aquisition.

Well, the heart of the mundane and obscure matter is how many damn runs did you score? Because that's what they're keeping track of on the scoreboard. Not whether you have a bright and shiny batting average. Hillenbrand doesn't seem like a great acquisition because if you take him out of the desert, this is what he's done over the last two years:

569 AB, 158 Hits, 35 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 72 RBI, 59 Runs, 25 BB, 73 Ks. That's a .278 hitter with a .425 slugging percentage.

Will this be an improvement? You bet it will. Because Dave Berg hit just .262 with 36 2b, 11 HRs, 80 RBIs, 81 runs, 41 BB and 108 Ks in his time here (and he needed 689 at bats to get there, too...)

So he's clearly better than Dave Berg.

Anybody know when single-game tickets go on sale?

BTW: I think the Blue Jays will win more games this year. You won't have Tosca mis-managing the bullpen. There will be some legitimate choices in that bullpen. The Jays realize their dangerous trend of slow starts to the season and will be working extra hard during spring training. After all that we went through last season, I can't believe how many people are complaining of too many position players! Is Hinske tall enough to play first base? I'm wondering if Brandon League is going to be 2005's K-Rod. Maybe Koch will find his stuff again. I like the changes with this club.

My only concern is the lack of a real homerun hitter. I don't see this lineup hitting too many out of the park.

Also, I think a lot of the negativity about 2005 comes from people not remember how good Catalanotto and Halladay are when healthy. The Cat was seeing the ball really well last year.

Ah, but he has been Mr First Half in the past. His career line prior to the ASB is .308/.345/.491.

Shh! Robert has already agreed!

Keith, for some reason the date March 4 comes to mind, although it may be later. I'm pretty sure that it's really early in March though.

As for your prediction of more wins...I agree. What we saw last year wasn't JP's vision, I'm sure: too many injuries and guys having poor years. I figure about 75 wins this year, although I think that the team is worse.

Thanks Tyler,

This is the first time I'll be in town for a home opener and I want to nab tickets without buying one of those flex packs (how will I know what I'm doing 4 months from now?!). And I know those irritating Red Sox fans are going to be buying lots of tickets as well. How fast do opening day tickets generally go?

Keith, COMN and send me an email and I'll fill you in.

Of all the things I am sure of, I can place this one high on the list: Brandon League will NOT be this season's Frankie Rodriguez. League never had the strikeout numbers in the minors that F-Rod did, he yielded more hits than F-Rod did, and he doesn't have the natural equipment that F-Rod does. Other than that, sure, I suppose it's possible. It's possible I may yet win the Nobel Prize in literature, but I'd place those odds right around zero for the immediate, long-term, and permanent future.

Jon Miller on K-Rod:

"Well, the Anaheim Angels got out of that one as they have a fellow coming out of the bullpen, you tell him 'we need a strikeout' and he says 'how many pitches?'"

He also tagged out a guy trying to advance home on a passed ball that Sunday night.

Yeah, K-Rod's one in a million (he did look human in Toronto early in 2004, though). I've only ever seen League throw a few innings.

he doesn't have the natural equipment that F-Rod does

Hey now this is a family blog ;)

Interesting quote from the Cubs assistant GM in a recent Baseball America roundtable on different scouting approaches (worth checking out, by the way). I wonder if the Jays are one of the teams he's referring to.

"GARY HUGHES: It seems like the teams that are so-called moneyball teams -- I'm not going to get into names of individual people or teams -- those teams seem to really lack communication skills within their organization. They don't talk to each other. They talk within their little comfortable niche of people, and the rest of the organization has no idea what's going on. That seems to be by design. And guys are leaving baseball -- just walking away -- rather than work with people who just aren't gonna listen to them."

Yeesh - I'm buying a Hillenbrand jersey anyway - it's sad to see it being used as a punishment.

*sniffle*

Useless Tyler did you goto Jr. High in Calgary?

It's possible I may yet win the Nobel Prize in literature
This week's "Shea is a Jay" thread had that hot, edgy Alice Munro feel to it that consistently wins her the Giller Prize.

I don't think fans will be flocking to see Hillenbrand. Fans will only flock for a winner, and I see him as an impediment to winning in the long term, and maybe even in the short term depending on what options come available in the next few months that we can no longer avail ourselves of.

I recall reading somewhere of a debate about what a star player does for attendance. The example used was Roger Clemens when he pitched for the Jays during his two unbelievable years here. Some would guess that seeing such exceptional talent on the field would result in an attendance spike every time he pitched, but the "increase", if there was any, was negligible. That being the case, the notion that the great Hillenbrand will be bringing people into the seats is... incorrect in my judgment.

Does someone know an easy way to confirm/deny what I said about Clemens?

okbluejays, the only time I know a superstar spiked attendance was Wayne Gretzky in 1982 who packed arenas everywhere on a balanced schedule. When Doc pitched against Pedro the crowds were good, as I recall, but much of that was Bosox fans and a weekend game. Good question.

Not a superstar, but a phenomemon, for sure -- Mark Fidrych, Detroit Tigers, 1976 Rookie of the Year and All-Star Game starter. The Tigers drew something like 40K for his starts and not much else and when they went on the road, fans planned around the Bird's starts.

It's not that fans will come to the park to see a particular player (unless perhaps his initials are B.B.). The point is that more fans will come if the team plays decent baseball, which is more likely if the some small upgrades are made where they can be. Hillenbrand qualifies on this count to me, as does SS if he's used as a LOOGY.

The "spike" for talent players can vary from player to player. What I can say about the spike of fans that came to see Clemens pitch in T.O. was at least 3 a year ... since that's how many times I went to see him pitch.

And I know those irritating Red Sox fans are going to be buying lots of tickets as well

Don't be too sure. April 8th won't be the season opener for either team. Last year, April attendance against the Red Sox was in the 17,000s, about 1,500 to 2,000 Red Sox fans (with exception to the $2 game). I understand they won the World Series, but in the eyes of the Red Sox fans, it is just a cold April game in Toronto. There will be Sox fans there, but less than we may think. I'm 99.9% sure of a Home Opener sellout, on account of the fact the game's on a Friday, not Monday (2004) and later in the afternoon, not mid-day. There was almost 48,000 last year, despite the poor time.

Useless Tyler did you goto Jr. High in Calgary?

No...

I don't think fans will be flocking to see Hillenbrand. Fans will only flock for a winner

Though won't Koskie, as an effective player actually from Canada, be a draw? Not to mention Vernon and Halladay, who are pretty close to being proven draws anyway.

Just to bring up that "mediocrity or not" argument again, I personally think that there's nothing wrong at all with trying for mediocrity. It's easily within our reach; to ignore it while putting all the proverbial eggs in the proverbial basket, hoping for our prospects to make up the entire All-Star team, sounds kind of risky to me. The fact that we went past mediocre to miserable last year showed in the offseason when nobody wanted to come here. It made for a depressing enough season as opposed to a few earlier when we could go to games having a reasonable enough expectation to win. Taking into account present circumstances, it'll also probably help our chances with free agents as well -- we won't have to try to lure them to a "last place team" anymore.

I'll ignore defence... even if we're comparing Hillenbrand to Gross strictly as DH's I don't think Hillenbrand is going to make much of a difference in terms of how many wins the Jays end the season with. A few? Maybe a few, but I don't think that JP should be gunning for 78 wins as opposed to 75. It's mediocrity either way. And this ignores that the money could be used to get us something better down the road, and this ignores that the development of Gross (or even the proven non-development of Gross), would help us for 2006.

And I didn't mean to imply that no player ever serves as a box office draw. What I should have clarified is that the effect is often overblown. People show up to see their favorite teams when they're in town (i.e. the Yankees) or will show up to see the Jays if there winning. If Bonds came to town you might see an extra thousand or few thousand show up to the game. Might some fans want to come out to support Koskie? Maybe a few, but I doubt a lot. And I certainly don't think there will be a big draw, or even a small one, for Hillenbrand (outside of a few Hillen-fans in the Batter's Box!!).

Jays fans will come for wins, regardless of who caused them; Hillenbrand or Gross or Koskie. People in the toronto media tend to ignore the jays when they play bad (except for stories questioning how long they still be here) and be overly optomistic when they start doing well.

Hopefully this will translate to large crowd is the jays have a contenter some day...

People in the toronto media tend to ignore the jays when they play bad

Paging the Toronto Star and the Sun to the white phone...

the home opener will be a sell out because the jays are giving a ticket to the game if you buy the 5 or 10 game flex pack.

add that to the normal opening crowd, walkups, etc and you will get a sellout for sure

the home opener will be a sell out because the jays are giving a ticket to the game if you buy the 5 or 10 game flex pack.

This will contribute, but not the reason. As I recall, they did this last year, and didn't sell-out. The best thing to happen to Opening Day 2005 is the date, Friday, late afternoon. Not those cold Monday 1:00 starts