I don't think there's any question that the best single season from a Jay 3B was ol' fave Kelly Gruber's near-MVP season in 1990. Fred McGriff's 1989 ranked well for 1B, but I think Delgado's 2000 and 2003 season are impossible to top about the Jay first sackers.

Analysis of Bauxites opinions on the DH:

Happy with Hillenbrand, best available.....25%

Should have traded for Nick Johnson......5%
Should have signed Juan Gonzalez........5%
Should use Cat as DH and Gross in LF......5%
Give the job to Crozier......5%
Should trade for Adrian Gonzalez....5%
Should trade for Cliff Floyd.......5%
Trade for unnamed player with team trying to cut payroll.....5%
Trade for Austin Kearns.......5%
Trade for Kevin Millar........5%
Trade for Doug Mienkiewicz.....5%
Trade for Calvin Pickering......5%
Trade for Val Pascucci....5%
Trade for Ryan Howard....5%
Trade for Travis Lee.....5%
Bring back Josh Phelps....5%

You want opinions! We have more than we need.

Olerud's '93 season also deserves mention for first basemen, and Molitor's '93 may be the best among DHs.

I was thinking that for overall career, Molitor might be the best 1B, 3B AND DH in Jays history.

DH is interesting, Paul Molitor and Dave Winfield had good single years. I think Cliff Johnson had a few good years with the Jays.

3B is a bit less inspiring, for years Iorg and Mulliniks were the 3B platoon, Gruber had a short Blue Jay career, although he did have one good year, IIRC.

Actually I liked Gruber better in the two years before his big '90 year. He seemed more alert.

Bring back Kelly Gruber.....5%

I know OPS+ isn't a magic bullet or anything, but it's worth pointing out that "Kelly Gruber's near-MVP season in 1990" produced an OPS+ of 131 while Eric Hinske '02 was at 124.

Should trade for Cliff Floyd.......5%

By my count, four people have called for Cliff Floyd's acquisition this week.

And for the record, while I've been running out counter arguments to the anti-Shea contingent, I'm not so much "for" the trade as I am indifferent to it.

I'm sorry to all but I really don't understand all the negativity. We went into this off-season knowing that we'd lose our franchise player and hoping to sign two guys(Koskie and Clement) to help fill the void along with other smaller acquisitions to fill holes. We went 1 for 2 on the Free Agents and then acquired a good group of other guys to help fill the void a bit more.
You want to do a statistical analysis?
Delgado's VORP last year was 41.4...he's essentially the only player of value we've let go(Woodward, Gomez will be missed but Adams takes over)
Now the VORP of the key acquisitions:
Koskie 26.7
Koch 6.3
Hillenbrand 34.7!!!!
Schowenweis 4.0
Ok so sure we didn't acquire Cliff Floyd or Nick Johnson but for the price of Adam Peterson and the money otherwise spent on Delgado, we have added 30.3 in the Value Over Replacement Player column.
Everyone bashes the Hillenbrand deal but this a guy who statistically was almost as good as Delgado last year.

Now without even thinking about statistics, one of THE biggest downfalls last year was injury problems. A team like the Blue Jays(2004) could not deal with many injuries because it lacked depth, one of the problems of Delgado taking up so much of our payroll. This off-season, Ricciardi tackled this by adding good players at every position where we needed one. Koskie goes down? Shift Hinske to 3B and Hillenbrand to first. Cat goes down? Put Johnson out there. Adams doesn't meet expectations? Menechino and McDonald can fill in. This is without mentioning our increased pitching depth, where we have four quality starters and a three way battle for the 5th spot. Our bullpen is the deepest we've had in years and may actually have one set closer. So don't bash all these moves because Ricciardi went after the guys he wanted, failed to get one of them and then quickly adjusted to make sure that this team would be as deep as possible. The guys who won in AA last year are gonna get the chance to win in AAA this year without having to be pushed into jobs in the major because of injuries. I think there lies the success of this off-season.

Question of the Day: Who are the greatest (single season, Blue Jay career and overall career) 1B, 3B and DH the Jays have ever employed?

Gee.. I have to answer "Carlos" for all three of those...

although Oleruds, 1993 363, with 54 Doubles and 24 HR was pretty good..

but Carlos in 2003 hit 302 with 42 HR's AND 145 RBI.. that's hard to top

Olerud has a few more RBI over his Career to date, but I think Carlos catches that too

That's a good point, Dan, about depth. It certainly addresses Robert's question from last night.

1B: Delgado is the clear winner here. He probably can claim the two or three best single seasons by a Blue Jay 1B, and certainly the best in terms of Blue Jay career. Obviously, his career overall is not finished, but I am confident in picking him for that category too. Definitely sounds like more than $6 million a year to me... ;-)

Analysis of Bauxites opinions on the DH:

Put me down for "Bring back Fullmer". I think there were a few others of that opinion as well.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1965565
COMN for details of the new MLB drug policy that should be unveiled today.

Good news: automatic suspensions for first-time offenders, random testing all year round, everyone will be tested at least once.

but for the price of Adam Peterson and the money otherwise spent on Delgado, we have added 30.3 in the Value Over Replacement Player column.

That's disingenuous unless you include the additional "cost" of three roster spots.

Bring Back Garth Iorg!!

Whoa sorry about that.

Good news: automatic suspensions for first-time offenders, random testing all year round, everyone will be tested at least once.

It's definitely a big step in the right direction, but still, 10 days for the first offense and one year only on the fourth offense is a joke compared to amateur athletics.

Can't we just move Shea to the outfield??

I'm kidding, but it would be better than our current situation if he was versitile enough.

Nick Johnson would have been a great acquistion, and allowed us to have the great IF defense in franchise history.

Line up with Koskie, Johnson, Hudson, McDonald on the IF - I don't think Punchout would have over a 1.00 ERA.

Fullmer is interesting. His overall 3-year line is .279/.336/.486, which is very similar to Hillenbrand's. The problem is, his splits over the same period look like this:

vs. LHP: .248/.283/.426
vs. RHP: .281/.361/.510

He needs a good right-handed partner to be effective and I'm not sure Frank M. is the answer. Fullmer also looks to me like he could be affected by the new drug testing policy (just speculating, not making accusations).

This off-season, Ricciardi tackled this by adding good players at every position where we needed one. Koskie goes down? Shift Hinske to 3B and Hillenbrand to first. Cat goes down? Put Johnson out there. Adams doesn't meet expectations? Menechino and McDonald can fill in. This is without mentioning our increased pitching depth, where we have four quality starters and a three way battle for the 5th spot. Our bullpen is the deepest we've had in years and may actually have one set closer.

Excellent point Dan. I will take anything I can get in terms of reason to be optimistic about the coming season. :)

He needs a good right-handed partner to be effective and I'm not sure Frank M. is the answer

You're right, but given the relative dearth of quality LHPs in the AL East, it's less of a problem. I think Mighty Mouse could do just fine in such a role.

It's definitely a big step in the right direction, but still, 10 days for the first offense and one year only on the fourth offense is a joke compared to amateur athletics.

Yeah, you can seemingly be banned for life for taking the wrong cough syrup in amateur athletics.

From what I read it seems like a reasonable policy.

* You can be suspended on the first positive
* Testing is random, and can be more than once during the season
* Testing also takes place in the offseason.

That seems to close the main holes in the old policy.

I think knowing that you can be tested at any time, and if you test positive it'll be public knowledge is a pretty big deterent.

"Ok so sure we didn't acquire Cliff Floyd or Nick Johnson but for the price of Adam Peterson and the money otherwise spent on Delgado, we have added 30.3 in the Value Over Replacement Player column."

Of course, Delgado used 333 outs last year to achieve that total of VORP. The two hitters JP added used 688 outs. I don't think you can just sum up the VORP here, and say that it's been a decent offseason.

Has anyone read the article in the Globe today? All sorts of weird stuff.

"Yeah, I like on-base percentage. I also like guys like Nomar Garciaparra and Alfonso Soriano, who aren't monster on-base guys."

Hillenbrand's OBP the past three years: .330, .314, .348
Soriano's OBP the past three years: .332, .338, .324
Garciaparra's OBP the past three years: .352, .345, .365

So he's reasonably comparable to Soriano, although Garciaparra is out of his league. Unfortunately both of those guys play positions that are slightly more important in terms of defence than DH, and they both hit for better power than he does. It's a ridiculous comparison, whether those guys have comparable OBP or not. I like guys like Soriano and Garciaparra too, but Hillenbrand isn't one of them.

"We're trying to get probability in our lineup..."

Probability of what? Bad hitters at high prices? Injury to F-Cat?

"He's a professional and mature guy,"

That's from his agent, Adam Katz. Don't these guys worry about God striking them down when they say this stuff?

"Ricciardi said the Jays might discuss a multiyear contract, before moving quickly to play down speculation that Hinske will now be traded."

Jeff Blair's contract. The only saving grace that this move has is that it's a one year deal. If JP gives this guy multiple years...I hope the fans in Syracuse enjoy watching Aaron Hill, because we'll never see him, barring a trade of Hudson or something.

This team is going to have a solid rotation, one of the better ones in the AL with a few breaks. It's a shame that the offence is going to be such a disaster.

Yeah, you can seemingly be banned for life for taking the wrong cough syrup in amateur athletics.

My friend actually almost had his amateur wrestling career ruined because he took a nasal decongestant or antihistamine or some such thing with a banned ingredient.

I think knowing that you can be tested at any time, and if you test positive it'll be public knowledge is a pretty big deterent.

I agree.

Oh damn it!

Sorry Lee, my fault apparently.

Sorry Lee, my fault apparently.

Oops, you're right. I thought it was me, hence my reaction.

Lee Forgets 1 special LHP that the Jays are going to play 4-5 times this year.

(His name sounds like "ohnson")

Dearth of lefties in the division or not, Fullmer is woeful against southpaws and there's not a Jays employee or fan alive who would want to live through it again. Two seasons was enough. He's cheaper than Hillenbrand, but Shea doesn't have much of a platoon split and can play first or third, which Fullmer can't. I'd rather have Hillenbrand, on balance.

It's definitely a big step in the right direction, but still, 10 days for the first offense and one year only on the fourth offense is a joke compared to amateur athletics.

But compared to the old MLB system -- offered counseling and treatment for the first four offenses and suspended for the fifth, with patterned and easy to predict tests -- it's huge.

Lee Forgets 1 special LHP that the Jays are going to play 4-5 times this year.

(His name sounds like "ohnson")

Umm..."Bohnson"? No..."Shmohnson"? Wait, I'll get it... ;-)

You're right, but still, the relatively few games a season in which the Jays are likely to face quality lefties to me is not sufficient to pass up a guy of Fullmer's talent (or the talent that IMO Fullmer has, you may disagree of course).

Would anyone complain about a Shea for Kevin Cash deal?

Would anyone complain about a Chad Gaudin for Adam Peterson and Thomas Mastny deal?

Would anyone complain if we'd signed McDonald for 1 year 400,000 as a free agent (with no pick compensation of course)?

To me, the moves J.P. made look a lot better if we shift them around into some sort of fantasy realm

Geoff, you have a point, but I think you are missing the boat. I dont think there is too much heartbreak over losing Peterson.

Basically we Signed a 1B who is going to make 4 mill (roughly) this season, who isn't great for the position he plays.

COMN for details of the new MLB drug policy that should be unveiled today.

Any discussion of drug use and official policies always reminds me of the old HBO show "Not Necessarily the News." On a mock story about the NFL, the following line was used.

"And the NFL's player union unanimously adopted Pete Rozelle's random drug-testing plan. They will be happy to test any random drug Rozelle wants them to."

I understand the concept of VORP, but not necessarily the details - so to compare the 3 offensive positions we would we need to compare aggregated VORP for Hinske (3rd base), Franken-player (DH) and Carlos at 1st vs. aggregated VORP for Hinske (1st base), Hillenbrand (DH) and Koskie (3rd base).

That assumes, similar production from last year to this year - and luckily no one had a career type year, so there should be no outlier. Hinske cancels himself out of the equation, so Carlos had a VORP of 41.4, Franken-DH had a VORP of ???. Compare that to Koskie and Hillenbrand's VORP of 26.7 and 34.7, respectively, for a total of 61.4

Would Franken-DH have had VORP of 20?

Also, Carlos missed some significant time so I assume his VORP would be a little higher had he played the entire season. I guess the same could be said for Koskie. Although the arguement can be made that injuries are part of the game.

It would be nice to compare VORP/$.

Can any one point me in the direction of where I might find the missing info?

Geoff, I don't think anyone would complain about move 2, probably not move 3 and move 1 is debatable.

However, that's not really the point. The Gaudin-Cash trade didn't come with a clause that said we must trade Peterson for Shea. It didn't come with a clause that said we must trade for McDonald.

While your point has relevence if you want to evaluate the overall moves of the offseason (although you also left out the signings of Koskie and Schoeneweis), it doesn't address the point that this move is puzzling, to put it politely.

And while I mentioned Val Pascucci (and Cal Pickering) by name in the other thread, I'd take any of the names mentioned by Gerry, ignoring trade cost, over Shea. As I don't know what Cincy was asking for Kearns, for example, I can't really evaluate whether JP should have traded for him, but I find it hard to believe every conceivable option up there was so much more expensive in terms of what we'd have to give up that Shea was the best option.

It will interesting to see how much of adventure 3-6-3 DPs will be with Hinske, as well as run downs and pick offs.

I understand the concept of VORP, but not necessarily the details - so to compare the 3 offensive positions we would we need to compare aggregated VORP for Hinske (3rd base), Franken-player (DH) and Carlos at 1st vs. aggregated VORP for Hinske (1st base), Hillenbrand (DH) and Koskie (3rd base).
Essentially this ends up to trading
Reed Johnson and Carlos Delgado
For
Shea Hillenbrand and Corey Koskie
Explanation: Johnson is now a bench player because of Cat going from DH to OF because Shea is now our DH, while Hinske replaced Delgado while being replaced by Koskie.

If you go by just the VORP numbers it's
Reed(2.4)(318,000) and Delgado(41.4)(19.7 million)
FOR
Hillenbrand(34.7)(4mill) and Koskie(26.7)(17m/3 yrs (so between 5 and 6))
So in this trade off we gave the at bats to more productive players(as a duo) and saved around 12 million dollars...makes sense to me!

It will interesting to see how much of adventure 3-6-3 DPs will be with Hinske, as well as run downs and pick offs.

Pickoffs I'll possibly grant you, but I'd think that Hinske's mobility would be superior to that of Delgado which would be an advantage in terms of 3-6-3 DP's and run downs. As for their respective arms, that's a bit tougher to say. Off the top of my head, I don't remember Delgado making too many throwing errors (not even one comes to mind). I'd think that defensively, this move is at worst a wash for the Jays.

So in this trade off we gave the at bats to more productive players(as a duo) and saved around 12 million dollars...makes sense to me!

Until a) Cat gets hurt in LF, b) you account for the fact that Delgado isn't going to make anywhere near 19.7 million dollars next year, and c) you consider that the Jays are stuck with Koskie for the next three years, and he's been on a downward slide-his number of AB has dropped for four years in a row and he turns 31 this year.

I'm not going to blame JP for the way the Delgado thing turned out-I still think that was a bright move, and the deck was stacked against the Jays in that situation. I don't think it makes the moves since then look any better though.

If you were the Reds GM, what would you ask for Kearns?

.277/.372/.465 over the past 3 years.

He's 24, makes $400,000, and can't stay healthy. I'm guessing Adam Peterson wouldn't do it.

Somehow I can see myself willing to bend a little bit and give away a few more prospects for Kearns over Hilly.

Not to slag Hinske before I see him at 1B, but I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for a whole lot of 3-6-3 DP's. He really likes to take his time before throwing the ball. And he's right-handed (as Delgado is, yes I know). If he can make the 3-6 outs rather than opting for the 3-unassisteds, that would be good enough.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/columnists/askba.html
Yes, it's obvious Kearns would have cost more than Peterson. So would have Ryan Howard, Craig Wilson and Kevin Millar. But we also don't know how much more and whether or not it would have been worth it. But I can't say what Pascucci, Pickering or players of that moose would have cost.

COMN to see today's Ask BA (Baseball America). It's not about the Jays, but it's interesting to see one of the questions, as it was sent by a prospect in the Giants organisation

Bad hitters at high prices?

Bah, hyperbole.

Hillenbrand's OPS+ from the last three years are 109, 95 and 106. How much better does a player have to be not to be designated a "bad hitter"? Would an OPS+ of 115 also be "bad"?

Look, I understand why so many people disagree with the move. But Hillenbrand, and JP, at least deserve the credit they're due. Even if modest.

And the price isn't high. There's still money to spend. There's still the possibility of midseason acquisitions if necessary. If Peterson becomes a valuable pitcher, I'll be surprised. (Still, don't dream of extending Shea before the season.)

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=schwarz_alan&id=1964607
There's a fun article on ESPN.com (COMN) about patient hitters and the like, what it meansto be a patient hitter, etc. I was surprised to read that Jermaine Dye was fourth in the majors in pitchers seen per PA.

According to J.P., Shea is like George Jefferson: He's "moving on up"!

Hey that would be a good song when he comes up to the plate.

Also, if he gets any fatter, we can call in "Weezie"!

He's 24, makes $400,000, and can't stay healthy. I'm guessing Adam Peterson wouldn't do it.

Just looking at Kearns' career, I have to guess that he's eligible for arbitration.

And the price isn't high.

High is a relative term I suppose, but I'm far from convinced that Hillenbrand is worth $4 million and a decent prospect.

I've only watched the Jays since 1995 so my votes will be from that season and on. w00t, this season will mark a decade of support for the Jays and myself!

Best single season:

1B: Carlos Delgado - 2000
3B: Tony Batista - 2000
DH: Jose Canseco - 1998

Best all time:

1B: Carlos Delgado
3B: Tony Batista (Who else would I choose? Hinski has been trash and I'm still trying to forget Ed Sprague. I never watched Gruber.)
DH: Joe Carter (I know what he did before 1995)
Reserve/Back Up: Carlie O'Brien

To get Kearns... it would take a lot. I think three or four GMs asked about Kearns at the Winter Meetings and all walked away shaking their heads because of the Red huge demands. KC inquired and were told any deal would have to include Greinke plus a couple more top prospects.

The Jays can't afford to dump that many good prospects for a player like Kearns.

The Phillies have no interest in giving away Howard, even if he is blocked at first base. If he is traded it will be to obtain an all star type player, not more prospects, which is all the Jays could offer.

For my money (prospects) Adrian Gonzalez hasn't shown anything that Crozier hasn't already shown the Jays (solid defence, questionable bat/production).

Millar seems to me to be the type of player that is valuable to a really good team (Red Sox), but loses value on a poorer (Jays) team.

Mientkiewicz is overpaid more so than Hillenbrand will be, he is also known to be a whiner and his bat is much less than Hillenbrand's. The only plus Mientkiewicz has is the glove and it isn't worth $4 million, when you have a questionable offence like the Jays.

Pascucci is now in Japan. Lee is coming back from a back injury and who knows if it will affect his throwing or his swing.

Nick Johnson is interesting but has never been able to stay healthy... and were talking for YEARS...

Pickering has had shown glimpses of promise in the past but has only had success for something like 1/6 of a season in the majors. His price is also higher right now, given that success, and isn't worth the risk.

The way I see it, given that other GMs really jacked up the price of free agents suddenly and unexpectedly, JP did as well as could be expected for a team in need of a lot of work, with a limited amount of money.

1B: John Olerud 1993 (or Fred McGriff 1989)
3B: Kelly Gruber 1990
DH: Paul Molitor 1993

Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Lineups answers today's Question of the Day with these selections:

All-Time (First Team)
1B Carlos Delgado
3B Kelly Gruber
DH Paul Molitor

All-Time (Second Team)
1B Fred McGriff
3B Rance Mulliniks
DH Cliff Johnson

Single Season
1B John Olerud (1993)
3B Kelly Gruber (1990)
DH Paul Molitor (1993)

DH: Joe Carter (I know what he did before 1995)

There was this one at-bat in October 1993 ... too bad you missed it!

Ah, never mind ... I misread your comment as "I don't know what he did before 1995." Mea maxima culpa.

Millar seems to me to be the type of player that is valuable to a really good team (Red Sox), but loses value on a poorer (Jays) team.

I don't know what this means. Whatever your reasoning is, why would this not apply to Shea?

Mientkiewicz is overpaid more so than Hillenbrand will be, he is also known to be a whiner and his bat is much less than Hillenbrand's. The only plus Mientkiewicz has is the glove and it isn't worth $4 million, when you have a questionable offence like the Jays.

Mientkiewics'z career OPS IS .768; Shea's is .770. His bat is much more unpredictable than Hillenbrand's and he seems to alternate good offensive seasons with crappy seasons. Also, he's never really had as bad of a year as he did last year, but I'd be money he rebound to something approaching his career OPS next year. His defence is also quite good. Granted, the Jays biggest weakness if offence, but if we Mientkiewicz's defence adds value, then why does it matter?

Also, the whiner comment is quite irrelevent as Shea's personality has been well-documented around here in the past couple of days.

Pascucci is now in Japan.

Noted. But he was sold about a week ago. And if Montreal likely accepted some very small amount of cash from Lotte for his services, why couldn't the Jays have stepped in? I doubt Montreal received millions for his services. I bet a half-decent prospect would have been worth it to Montreal, or you pay them whatever and you get to keep Peterson. You'd still save the majority of Shea's salary.

Pickering has had shown glimpses of promise in the past but has only had success for something like 1/6 of a season in the majors.

In admittedly about a half-season of MLB at-bats Pickering still has a higher career OPS than Shea. He's potentially more expensive, I agree but depending on the price, potentially also worth it.

If I recall correctly... Aaron Hill has college experience as an outfielder.. Leftfield I believe.

I should add on to that...

I mentioned that because we supposedly have our infield set for awhile so if Hill really needed a spot in the majors he could probably re-adjust to a corner outfield spot easy enough.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6822765
Everybody's favorite past Blue Jay Raul Mondesi has landed a starting RF gig with the Braves at one mil for one season.

Of course moving Hill to the OF is wasting a big part of his value - his ability to play a non-1B spot in the infield.

I'd like to point out that no one person in the anyone but Hillenbrand camp has yet to offer up a reasonable trade offer in exchange for their preferred alternative. You like Pickering, fine. What would it take to get him that both parties would agree to?

I just heard that Vernon Wells will be on the FAN soon. Hopefully, this goes better than the Hinske/Ricciardi interviews we've had recently.

BEST SINGLE SEASON:
1B - Delgado 2000 (OPS+ 182) [Olerud had 185 in '93, but IMO Delgado was a more fearsome hitter, plus he had 115 R and 137 RBI]

3B - Gruber 1990 (OPS+ 131) [* Note that the Rance/Garth platoon of 1985 = .303 .375 .460]

DH - Molitor 1993 (OPS+ 142) [1994 was equally impressive, but the shortened season cuts down some of the counting stats]

GREATEST CAREER AS A JAY
1B - Delagdo

3B - Ughh...Gruber, but competition is weak

DH - Molitor

GREATEST OVERALL CAREER
1B - Delgado

3B - Gruber, again by default

DH - Tie - Molitor & Winfield

For the logically-challenged, this is what it boils down to.

Hillenbrand+Cat = Cat+Gross (offence and defence combined, salaries excluded).

OPS+ is a terrible stat to use to evaluate Hillenbrand because the true weight should be between 1.5 and 2.0 OBP for every point in SLG. Hillenbrand's SLG is better than his OBP relative to the league, so this type of comparison is unfair to a guy with a higher OBP than Shea.

Single year VORP isn't all that great a stat - it is position dependent, for one. Since Shea will be DH'ing more than playing first base with the Jays, his value to the team goes down. I'd also like to see the park adjustment they use, since Arizona is notoriously hitter-friendly. Shea had his best year last year and is at the age where we can expect a decline.

More logic...

Net Value = Value of Performance - Salary

Shea Value = 2 million (estimated) - 4.5 million (estimated)

Shea Value = -2.5 million (estimated)

Shea is an average hitter who will have almost no defensive value for the Jays in 2005. That's a below average player. Investing in Gabe Gross at near the minimum salary is a far more sensible thing to do because if he outperforms expectations, you have a potentially huge net gain. If he doesn't, the absolute maximum loss is 320K.

There's also the issue of fit. With Hillenbrand likely batting in one of the first 5 spots in the order and playing everyday, he's going to be a GIDP machine (he's a righthanded contact hitter). The lineup has few players who are good at getting on base and it will be a disaster if Shea ends up batting behind Koskie (a guy who does get on base). Shea might help a team that needs a third baseman or has enough offence to bat him 6th or 7th. Are the Blue Jays that team? No.

In short,

Doing nothing (i.e. waiting until spring to pursue a deal) and installing Gross in left and Cat as the DH was the logical thing to do.

Not making a move is better than a bad move. And this is a bad move.

For the logically-challenged

Steady, Robert. You mean, for "those who disagree with me on a questionable move -- albeit a move made by a GM who is no dullard."

I asked this yesterday, Robert, but it got lost in the mess of that thread:

What are you using to estimate Hillenbrand's value this year? Salaries throughout the league as of now, or just salaries based on this offseason? I'm just curious as to how you worked out the numbers.

You mean, for "those who disagree with me on a questionable move -- albeit a move made by a GM who is no dullard."

In light of where the money has been spent this offseason, and in light of JP saying that the Jays might discuss a multi-year deal with Shea, I think that the contention that he's no dullard is now officially open to debate. SS and Koskie are just as troublesome, Koskie moreso if Shea doesn't get multiple years.

He might not be a dullard, but at the very least his ability to formulate and follow through on a plan to make the Jays a contender should be under severe scrutiny. The better move this offseason would have been not spending the money, or at the very least not giving anyone multiple years. SS and Koskie are on the payroll for two and three years respectively, regardless of what happens, and they aren't the difference between contending.

I figure an average everyday player is worth about 2.8 million dollars per year in the current market.(about 1/22nd of the average payroll). I think that's reasonable since it's the star players, due to scarcity that eat up most of a typical club's payroll. Hillenbrand, being an average hitter and now mostly a DH, has little defensive value (to the Jays). I therefore regard him as a below average everyday player. If you want to bump his value up to 2.2 or 2.3 million, I'm okay with that.

Robert - I like your analysis:

Net Value = Value of Performance - Salary

Which suggests that Gross will have a + figure, while Shea a - figure. In a perfect situation, save any other factors, this holds true.

Except that in this case the extra value (i.e. payroll) would be forgone, as there does not seem to be any remaining talent available for JP to spend on (either through FA or trade).

So in this case, essentially, both players are costing JP $4-6M - which boils down to his available budget at the current time - until JP can spend it on someone...

Except that in this case the extra value (i.e. payroll) would be forgone, as there does not seem to be any remaining talent available for JP to spend on (either through FA or trade).

So in this case, essentially, both players are costing JP $4-6M - which boils down to his available budget at the current time - until JP can spend it on someone...

This is just silly. Let's say that the Jays had lost out on Koskie, and picked up Travis Lee to play first, paying him 3 million dollars. Would people be so frivolous about the extra money then, reasoning that it might as well be spent as not spent?

The Jays available dollars are irrelevant in terms of assessing the value of a given player except for two different purposes. One, assessing if a given player can help you win given the dollars you have to spend ($/projected VORP+D or something like that) and two, if you're going to be maxed out, and need to find the best buy for X million. Other than that, I can't see why the available money matters. Ricciardi knew it was a business when he didn't offer arbitration to Delgado; why is it all of a sudden not a business when it comes to pissing money into the wind for Hillenbrand?

Consider me agnostic on the Hillenbrand and Schoeneweis deals (although Robert's arguments about Gabe Gross are fairly persuasive). But I do think that the net impact of the off-season moves, plus (hopefully) full seasons from VW, Halladay and improvements from Rios and a few others should result in a higher level of performance, and hopefully wins.

I agree that the difference between 70 and 80 wins is not very significant, at least not in terms of playoff contention or attendance. But it might make it easier for JP to spend some of his budget next off-season, if free agents see the Jays as something other than a last-place team. If you eschew pick-ups like Hillenbrand, Schoeneweis and Koch so you can run all the kids out there and lose 95 games, I can see it being another long off-season as we sit here bemoaning the fact that this player or that player won't take Ted Rogers' money.

Arguing that Gross' OBP should be more important, and Sheas slg is less important, is a fair argument on a team with plenty of power. The fact is, we dont have plenty of power. I dont think that the double play stuff is a huge point, as there are plenty of guys that can run at the top of the line up, and it may be more worthwhile to send them with shea, or any other groundball hitter.

Except that in this case the extra value (i.e. payroll) would be forgone, as there does not seem to be any remaining talent available for JP to spend on (either through FA or trade).

This is the part that is completely off-base.

Trades can always be made, if not now, then in March when a key pitcher on some would-be contender gets injured. If not then, then during the season when some teams will decide they want to dump a player for prospects.

I mentioned Cliff Floyd: the Mets outfield is getting pretty crowded now. Nevertheless, if there are no hitters available in trade, then switch the focus to acquiring a veteran pitcher.

And if all that fails, there is the possibility of working out a long-term front-loaded deal with Orlando Hudson or possibly Ted Lilly or conceivably Dave Bush or Alex Rios if they prove themselves worthy in the first half of 2005.

Plus, the remaining free agents might be getting desperate and it is at least conceivable that in about 3 or 4 weeks you might be able to sign one of them to a 1-year deal at below market value.

There is still plenty of time to spend the money, so why should one settle for spending it badly?

I like the idea of front loaded contract, but I have never heard of one in baseball.

Even the signing bonuses seem to be pretty small.

Can anyone think of some front loaded contracts?

OK, so if Gross and Catalanatto are the full time DH/LF, what happens when we play LHP?

I think its easy to criticize the Hillenbrand aquisition. But we are getting a guy who is consistent, and has been able to avoid injury. Also, his K-rate dropped dramatically last year.

Hillenbrand may be overpaid, but at least he brings some sort of consistent offensive production. Anything is better than the Hinske/Phelps black hole that we witnessed at the beggining of last year.

As a matter of fact, I would've expected to see more concerns about the notion that Eric Hinske is going to be our starting first baseman.

As an aside,

I find it interesting that statistically minded people here are so adament about the value of high OBP, but seem to ignore the value of a hit over a walk in creating runs.

I have no analysis or stats, but thats pretty obvious isn't it?

"Shea is an average hitter who will have almost no defensive value for the Jays in 2005. That's a below average player."

What would be the purpose of a DH having defensive value? Is a DH held to a higher standard at the plate because they don't play a traditional defensive position? Intuitively one would think that a DH would only be compared to another DH.

"Shea Value = -2.5 million (estimated)"

I have trouble understanding this. What are the on field implications of a player having a negative dollar value worth? Is that -2.5 million more detrimental to the team than the alternative; +7 million sitting in Rogers' piggy bank?

As far as Gross goes, there are many things that could happen this season that would result in him being given an opportunity with the big club. There is no way (that I can see, anyway) to accurately predict JP's future ability to upgrade the team via trade.

Telling someone with millions of dollars to spend to be patient is easy; actually being patient is far more trying.

Jack Foley,

Is a DH held to a higher standard at the plate because they don't play a traditional defensive position?

It's bleeding obvious that a good defensive first baseman or decent third baseman is worth more than an equivalent hitter who only DHs. Do you disagree or agree with following: Hillenbrand's value to the Jays would increase if he played a competent third base or first base, instead of DHing. If you agree, then it becomes axiomatic that an average hitter who only DHs is a below average regular player.

What are the on field implications of a player having a negative dollar value worth?

It means they are wasting money. I refuse to accept the idea that either Shea is going to get his 4.5 million or else Ted Rogers will keep it. Now they can not put this 4.5 million to better use and there are still a number of ways it could be put to better use for the 2005 baseball season.

As far as Gross goes, there are many things that could happen this season that would result in him being given an opportunity with the big club.

Shuttling Gross from Syracuse and rotating him into the lineup once in a while is counterproductive. You're not going to find out if a guy can hack it as an everyday player doing that and Gross is at the age where it's time to find out what he can do. They should trade him for whatever they can get since it's obvious they don't have a high regard for him.

Unless Cat or Hillenbrand get hurt and miss nearly the entire season, Gross isn't going to get those 500 PA. You know Reed Johnson is going to get 250 PA and Cat is going to get the bulk of the time in left against lefties. Shea will be in the lineup almost everyday. Where do you see the playing time coming from? The only chance for Gross to get 500 PA is if Cat (or conceivably Rios) gets injured very early and misses the rest of the season. There's maybe a 5% chance of that happening.

Telling someone with millions of dollars to spend to be patient is easy; actually being patient is far more trying.

Forgive me, but I believe that the GM of the Blue Jays is being paid a lot of money to make tough decisions. Actually being patient and not doing the wrong thing because of impatience isn't on my short list of difficult GM chores.

OK, so if Gross and Catalanatto are the full time DH/LF, what happens when we play LHP?

Have you ever heard of Reed Johnson and Frank Menechino?

OK, so if Gross and Catalanatto are the full time DH/LF, what happens when we play LHP?

My god, one other voice in the wilderness who actually understands the issue of L/R balance in the lineup...see my post at the end of the previous thread.

I find it interesting that statistically minded people here are so adament about the value of high OBP, but seem to ignore the value of a hit over a walk in creating runs.

A lot of it has to do with preventing outs. In theory, if you minimize out making, you'll maximize run scoring. Guys like Hillenbrand and Carter put the ball in play and drive runs in, but often at the cost of making an out.

I can see your point about a hit actually moving runners further than walks. I just wonder how much OBP it's worth giving up to get a hit instead of a walk...

Have you ever heard of Reed Johnson and Frank Menechino?

Meanwhile, Koskie gets sent out to flail away against lefties. I figured Menechino would see most of his playing time at 3B backing up Koskie against tough lefties. Silly me.

If you're paying/playing a DH $4-5 million, why not try and find one that can avoid making outs as much as possible? Hillenbrand isn't that guy- he makes a lot of outs. He's got to hit .310 to post a league-average ob%. Robert raised this earlier- a lot of Hillenbrand's "good" year came from hitting in Arizona. He wasn't the same hitter on the road. My concern is in his ability to repeat those numbers. I'd rather have 450 superior plate appearences from Floyd and use the time he's injured to evaluae my young hitters. Floyd could go .400/.550. The only way Hillenbrand does that is if he hits .370, unlikely given the move to a tougher park and his minor league track record. Floyd's a better baserunner. He can play the field if needed, and is actually decent in left when he's not playing hurt. He has the potential to perform at a far superior level. Based on the indicicators we have, 2004 was the upper level of Hillenbrand's ability.

Meanwhile, Koskie gets sent out to flail away against lefties. I figured Menechino would see most of his playing time at 3B backing up Koskie against tough lefties. Silly me.

I doubt Koskie would have signed with the Jays if he thought he would be used as a platoon player.

Jamey Newberg reports this seemingly innocuous item this afternoon:
The Rangers have announced that infielder Ruddy Yan has cleared waivers and the club has outrighted him to Oklahoma, opening up a spot on the 40-man roster, which now sits at 39 players.

Question: who freaking cares? Well, I am just making a supposition here, but opening up a roster spot would be necessary for Tejas to sign any free agents, such as a certain first baseman.

I wonder if a guy like Hillenbrand can learn to improve his OBP (ie, walk more) while remaining a .290 hitter? If he walked as often as he strikes out (49 times last year; 70 times the year before that I think) he would actually be quite a good player. Damn, how hard can it be to walk 49 times over the course of 600 plate appearances?

But who would we be trading Hinske for, Mick?

If you absolutely insist on having another righthanded bat when you're going to face only about 45 lefthanded starting pitchers, just wait till spring and pull one off the scrap heap. Tampa Bay's ahead of the game - they already pulled a lefty masher off the heap who's a lot cheaper than Hillenbrand. What was his name? Josh something.

Look, as long as you don't have ALL lefties or ALL righties and don't platoon, your left-right balance isn't going to be a problem.

Rios, Wells, Menechino, Zaun, Hudson, Quiroz, Johnson ... some of them are going to play against nearly every lefty.

Having all those guys, it's absolutely idiotic to choose an inferior hitter over a superior hitter because the better hitter hits left. It's doubly stupid for a team that has less than a 2% chance of making the playoffs in 2005 going into the year.

The left-right thing is a stupid point. Stupid.

In very rare circumstances do free-swingers suddenly start walking more. Sammy Sosa jacked up his walk rate not so much because he suddenly figured out the strike zone, but because he wasn't seeing many good pitches to hit. Hillenbrand is Garret Anderson, without the defense, without the (relative) power, and without the sweet-looking swing. Neither of those guys are suddenly going to start drawing walks, and if they do, I'll happily eat a few t-shirts.

Another thing to keep in mind is that playing time is a valuable resource for a non-contending club. This is something smart clubs understand, and why it was frustrating to watch Phelps on the bench while Delgado was out. If you're not winning, then the best thing you can do is use the games to evaluate your talent. Hillenbrand- we know, wihin a range, what he can do. We know how much it'll cost to have him do it. With Gross, there's a large amount of uncertainty. He could be a cheap .360/.450 hitter in LF/DH, which would free up salary in one of those spots for the team to invest in an area of need when they're contending. One thing's for sure- the team shouldn't be paying $5 million for a DH who isn't even a league-average hitter when they're trying to win. And when they're not trying to contend, they shouldn't be wasting playing time on a known commodity who is already overpriced due to high counting stats and park-inflated rate stats.

a DH who isn't even a league-average hitter

Come on now. .310/.348/.464 is a league average hitter??? Good league. Maybe the PCL. Even his 3-year line of .295/.331/465 is well above average. Only one of the three stats in his line is as low as avg-and only in the 3yr. line-and that's OBP. I realized it's the most important one, but the rest is well above avg, so please don't exaggerate so much.

Hey, can somebody help me out?

I saw that the spring training game at Dunedin where the Red Sox visit the Blue Jays just got sold out. I was hoping to be done for that and was only waiting to buy tickets so I could confirm my plans. If I head down there on that day, is there a good chance I can buy tickets outside the park? How much will the scalpers charge? Thanks. Same goes for when the Jays visit Legends Field, that game as well is sold out.

I imagine the games against the other teams there is little need to purchase tickets ahead of time.

Thanks.

In Shea's defense (no pun intended), his defense at 1B is apparently OK.

I am disappointed in this off-season, and I'm not a Hillenbrand fan, but I have to say that I would much rather see him at 1B/DH than Phelps, Berg, Gomez, Zaun, and some of the other flyweights (Simon Pond, anyone?) who logged time there in 2004.

I really don't understand what the big deal is. Come July, if any of Hinske, Cat, or Shea are doing well you will hear their name in trade takes. And the jays should trade the one or two who have the highest return. All it takes is an injury to a corner infielder or DH on a contending club and the jays will be in luck.

But who would we be trading Hinske for, Mick?

Ummm ... Chan Ho Park?

But who would we be trading Hinske for, Mick?

Forget about Texas.

If Hinske ends up being traded, I say he goes to Florida (assuming they don't sign Delgado).

They have the exact opposite "problem" that the Jays do. They lean pretty heavily to the right, and since the departure of Choi, they have zero lefthanded power.

I agree with you mark(other than the spelling of your first name). Shea and Cat are 2 guys that the jays could get, and will move when the opportunity arrises. These guys are signed at a reasonable rate, play a few different positions, can be a very good pinch hitter, and dont have long term deals for their new teams to worry about.
On to the point about phelps being had, sure, with our 20/20 hindsight, and knowing that clement and Lee werent gonna be taking up that salary, im sure JP would have at least considered phelps. However, he was grabbed up before JP new he would have 3M dollars left over.
Another thing I am getting tired with seeing around here is the exclusion of BA when people just post OBP/SLG. Average is still an important stat, needs to be considered. If I'm pitching to vernon wells and the guy behind him is hitting .220/.420/.450 I probably dont worry about giving vern to many pitches.

If Hinske ends up being traded, I say he goes to Florida (assuming they don't sign Delgado).

They have the exact opposite "problem" that the Jays do. They lean pretty heavily to the right, and since the departure of Choi, they have zero lefthanded power.

If the Marlins needed lefthanded power then why would they be interested in Hinske then? :)

.220/.420/.450

Well done, Sweat. You've managed to imagine an even weirder stat line than Rob Deer's.

Personally, I'd like to see Bonds bat eighth in front of the Giants pitcher's spot to see how long he can maintain a .000/1.000/.000 line.

Thanks Mike :D
Your posts come with a crying face, so i tried to make up for it.
I just think that some people here have gone a little crazy. Average isn't so much lesser a stat than OBP that it isnt worth mentioning.

If I'm pitching to vernon wells and the guy behind him is hitting .220/.420/.450 I probably dont worry about giving vern to many pitches.

Depends on whether the guy after VW is clutch or not.;)

Average isn't so much lesser a stat than OBP that it isnt worth mentioning.

The only reason to mention batting average is that it can tell you something about how a guy came to be a .350/.450 OBP/SLG hitter - he could be a high-singles guy, or he could be a high-walks-with-power guy.

Suppose you have Player A, .250/.350/.450, and Player B, .300/.350/.450. Without knowing anything more about them, they're equals. We expect Player A to have more value going forward, because it's easier to maintain walk rate than singles rate.

I just think that some people here have gone a little crazy. Average isn't so much lesser a stat than OBP that it isnt worth mentioning.

Many people post AVG/OBP/SLG. I agree that OBP/SLG are somewhat incomplete without the batting average, but I can't see how you're getting tired of people mentioning just the other two stats, because that's not the case.

As a somewhat casual fan,I think the Shea deal can be a good thing. Yes all your points are valid about his production, but the club did after all loose its main star. People from across the country knew Delgado. Now, if the jays went into next year with all unproven names (ie Gross) without really adding anyone from outside the club, a lot of casual fans will have very little drive to watch. Now i'm not even goin to try to say that koskie and hillenbrand have the star power as a Delgado, but they are more appealling than a gross and crozier combo.( to the average fan that is). After all the jays still do need to try and fill the stands. Adding a .310 hitting former rookie of the year will interest some people. Although this is all one little manitoban's opinion.

I'm not a Shea fan, but it is silly to say he isn't even a league average hitter. He is better than a league average hitter. And contrary to what many people believe, a league average hitter at dh is not an easy thing to find (probably because teams tend to play their good hitters in the field to keep them happy/more valuable and teams also need to keep backups and have lmited roster spots). How many dh's last year had an OPS above 760? According to ESPN sortable stats only 4 (checking both qualified and non-qualified):

Thomas 997
Hafner 993
Durazo 919
Segui 841 (with only 64 PA)

Shea's 3 year average is 796.

That would put him as the solidly 5th best dh (4th best with any playing time) in the majors and I think Hillenbrand is more likely to beat his 3 year average than hit less than his 3 year average (and even 30 points less than the 3 year average is still good for 5th last year).

So he isn't an elite dh, but he's an above average one. And he can back up both 3rd and 1st if needed.

I think Hillenbrand was a solid pickup. Though he may not be a Carlos Delgado, the combination of he and Koskie should make up the difference if not increase production. Both are proven major leaguers. Koskie I'm sure most will agree was a great pickup, he plays at a high level and he'll help fan interest becasue of the canadian connection.
The major knock on Hillenbrand is his defense and his DP hitting. His defense shouldnt be a factor with the Jays. And the double plays should be less of a factor as he now plays half his games on a faster turf that fielders dont make as many plays on. Overall with a little change in philosophy the team could win 85 games.
If the team stays healthy

Robert Dudek, you insist Hillenbrand's a below-average hitter, but please tell us what criteria you use to decide this, since OPS and VORP aren't good enough in your view.

You can beg for Gross all you want; JP obviously doesn't think much of him and we're not likely to see much of him. It's that simple. If you have any evidence to the contrary, I'd like to know what it is. What we shouldn't overlook is that there is probably a reason for it, which goes beyond his Syracuse numbers (which is really all we, as fans have to go by). Maybe there's an issue with his work habits or personality, or perhaps scouts see things that fans can't that make them believe he will not adjust properly to big league pitching. JP is still a scout at heart, and he's not going to let a player's solid but not overwhelming minor league numbers be the sole factor in deciding whether or not he is ready for the big leagues.

I dunno, I think this debate about whether or not Shea is a good hitter is missing the point. It's resources wasted.

Myself, I think Shea as a hitter is .. meh, not bad, not good, just there. If we needed a third baseman or first baseman then fine, give Shea the chance. But the problem is that we already have a third baseman, and a first baseman, and a DH. And two of our top hitting prospects also project to play third.

If trading Hinske was difficult before, what's it going to be know when every team out there knows the Jays have one more player than position available?

I think the problem with moving Hinske has more to do with these 2 numbers:

2 (the number of consecutive years he has declined)

and 13 (as in millions still owed to him on his current contract)

I can certainly see Robert's point, but I think Gross is likely to get his AB's anyway. There are going to be injuries on this team, Koskie missed 40+ games last year, Cat missed 90, Wells missed 25. After what we went through last season, between Koskie, Cat, Hinske, and Hillenbrand Im just hoping that 3 of them can be healthy at all times. Which could add up to Gross getting his ABs.

Keith Talent:

There are usually guys outside the stadium selling and buying tickets for games. I am unaware of the markup.

Also the game versus Boston is almost sold out. As of 2 days ago there were only about 100 tickets left in the extreme outfield sections. Also games versus the Phillies sell well too. All the rest of the games have plenty of tickets remaining. Of course the Yankee game is sold out.

If I can help you let me know Keith. A friend of mine works in the ticket booth. I go to all the games at Dunedin and really enjoy the atmosphere of a small ball park.

For a while last year Delgado batting behind Wells wasn't too far off .220/.420/.450 and yes, Vernon was not getting a lot of pitches. Consequently, he was lashing at every decent pitch he saw. It messed with his head, big time, understandably. Thankfully, Delgado is gone.
Consequently, in a hot FA market, it's no wonder Carlos is dangling in the wind.

Rich,

Robert said Hillenbrand is an average hitter, not below-average. Since he'll be DHing primarily, he won't contribute much defensively, therefore making him a below-average player, in Robert's estimation.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1966232
MLB unveiled the new steroid policy. The highlights of the policy are:

-in-season and off-season testing
-10 game suspension for the 1st offence, 30 games for the 2nd offence
-amphetamines not covered.

The owners indicated that they wished amphetamines to be covered, but the union would not agree. The union was unavailable for comment on the amphetamines issue.

Those of us who support the labour movement always find it difficult when health and safety of members is given such low priority.

I stand corrected; thanks James. Even if Hillenbrand is just an average hitter, the Jays had once of the worst DH performances in baseball last year: .233/.316/.377 (ISO of .144 to Hillenbrand's .155), so Hillenbrand is an upgrade.

How does a 300avg hitter average? If you can hit over 300, you can hack!

The union was unavailable for comment on the amphetamines issue.

Presumably, someone will return their voicemail in the next few days so we can get some insight into this fascinating issue. Oh no, wait, they won't, because the union is sure as shootin' going to refuse to comment on the issue.

The speed issue is a disappointing but unsurprising element of what is otherwise an improvement. If we're going to have testing, this program is better than what went before. The fact that most of the media thinks it doesn't go far enough, is a good sign that it's a solid program.

Thankfully, Delgado is gone.

I can't support this sentence.

Sorry, "solid improvement" not "solid program".

Matthew E, I shall retract that sentence. Thank you for calling me on it. If Delgado comes back at 6 million in May I shall be delighted.

That would put him as the solidly 5th best dh (4th best with any playing time) in the majors and I think Hillenbrand is more likely to beat his 3 year average than hit less than his 3 year average (and even 30 points less than the 3 year average is still good for 5th last year).

What makes you think he'll beat his 3 year average? Last year, he hit .347/.381/.540 in Arizona. He hit 2/3 of his home runs there, despite having 32 more AB on the road. He struck out almost twice as often on the road. We just traded for this year's Jay Payton minus the ability to play CF and run. Payton's numbers in Coors made him look like a good hitter. And if you didn't take his road numbers seriously, you'd look at the balance and say he was.

I'm not saying he's worthless as a part-time player making $1 million. But as a starting DH, especially signed beyond this year, he's a huge risk- you're paying him for numbers he produced that are clearly inflated by playing in a hitter's park. 2003 was no different- Shea's power numbers came from hitting really well at the BOB. If he posts an OB% in the .310-.320 range again, signed for $12 million over 3 years, with the reputation as being a liability in the field, he's absolutely unmoveable. Shea's 2003 was bad. His OB% was 35 points below league average, and his power was derived mainly from being in a park it seems like he tailored his swing to.

It just makes no sense. The Jays had a bad player signed to a bad contract at 3B and a hole at 1B. They also had too many guys at DH who couldn't/shouldn't play 1B. They have so much talent in the system at SS/2B, there was talk of moving their top hitting propect to 3B. So they signed a guy for 3 years to play 3B, where offense is more scarce, and moved their poor hitting, untradeable 3B to 1B, where his inability to hit is magnified. Essentially, they signed Koskie as a 1B. Then they sign another guy whose value lies mainly in his ability to provide offense while pretending to play 3B and minimize his value by turning him into a DH, simultaneously forcing the incumbent DH, a decent hitter and bad fielder when he can actually play, into the field, forcing a decent fielder and potentially good hitter to the minors.

Great stuff dp...I hadn't realize how much BOB effect was in his numbers. SkyDome is a hitter's park too though, isn't it? Shouldn't that have the effect of at least holding up the numbers a bit?

Doesn't matter if skydome is a good hitter's park,

point is; he's over rated

"holding up numbers somewhat" isn't gonna' win ya any ballgames cause the opponents #s are eaqually "held up" when they come to town

But as a starting DH, especially signed beyond this year, he's a huge risk- you're paying him for numbers he produced that are clearly inflated by playing in a hitter's park

Fair enough, but don't forget that OPS+ accounts for this. His OPS came out slightly above average taking the BOB into account. To set the record straight, he didn't post average numbers that were ballpark-inflated; he posted fine numbers that were ballpark-inflated.

We expect Player A to have more value going forward, because it's easier to maintain walk rate than singles rate.

Right, which explains the wild fluctuation/decline in Hillenbrand's numbers, and Eric Hinske's rock-solid consistency. Oh, wait...

OK, I've defended this trade for the last time. I think it's a fine move for a stopgap solution to the DH problem, and the Jays remain comfortably under budget. Realistically, I can't think of a single player out there who was within the Jays' budgetary and personnel means to acquire prior to the trade -- but no longer is, with the trade of Peterson and the assumption of Shea's salary. JP has always insisted that he can beg for extra cash if the club contends mid-season. And if they trade Hinske, this move makes even more sense...except I'd rather they not sell low with Eric. Intensive swing therapy is my vote instead.

But I'll stop now.

Payton's numbers in Coors made him look like a good hitter. And if you didn't take his road numbers seriously, you'd look at the balance and say he was.

Jay Payton, Colarado Rockie, 2003
Home: .322/.377/.540, 298 AB
Road: .281/.330/.483, 302 AB

Sounds like a decent hitter to me, especially considering he was brought to San Diego to play centre field and thereby push Brian Giles to right field.

you're paying [Hillenbrand] for numbers he produced that are clearly inflated by playing in a hitter's park.

2004 Bank One Ballpark: Park factor 103
2004 SkyDome: Park factor 106

moved their poor hitting, untradeable 3B to 1B, where his inability to hit is magnified.

This makes absolutely no sense. You're applying an abstract concept to an actual situation, and it doesn't work. Hinske is a bad hitter, period. If you're going to play Hinske, he actually has MORE value at first base than at third, because he's a better 1st baseman relative to the league than he is a 3rd baseman.

Maybe the maximum value is to bench him. I hope he'll prove that's not the case.

Now, maybe there was a first baseman out there that the Jays could have signed for Koskie's dollars (or acquired without giving up valuable prospects) who would be so much better of a hitter than Koskie that he would have surpassed Koskie's net contributions (offence and defence and pushing Hinske to a position he can better handle defensively). But I sure haven't heard of such a player.

None of which is to say I'm a fan of Shea in Toronto.

We expect Player A to have more value going forward, because it's easier to maintain walk rate than singles rate.

Right, which explains the wild fluctuation/decline in Hillenbrand's numbers, and Eric Hinske's rock-solid consistency. Oh, wait...

I was talking in general terms, not sure why you're bringing Hinske & Hillenbrand into it. At any rate, do you disagree with my premise that Player A is likely to be better going forward?

Jonny, if you are an opposing pitcher about to face Player A and you go over his stats would you not come to the conclusion that by throwing strikes to this guy you can limit the damage he may be able to do against you relative to Player B. I realize this is rather simplistic but if I'm the pitching coach I rip any of my pitchers who walk Player A - and yes it probably happens almost every game. I'm not disputing which player is more valuable just that Player A's propensity to walk to obtain the equivalent OBP can be countered by making him put the ball in play by throwing strikes.

This makes absolutely no sense. You're applying an abstract concept to an actual situation, and it doesn't work. Hinske is a bad hitter, period. If you're going to play Hinske, he actually has MORE value at first base than at third, because he's a better 1st baseman relative to the league than he is a 3rd baseman.

No- he's a bad-hit 1B with a good glove, and there are many more of those. So he isn't as scarce.

Look, I'd be maybe a bit more OK with these moves if they were all one year deals. But if Hillenbrand gets $4 million, that's $11 million combined in the '06 payroll. Plus SS is 13.5 million. Koskie isn't likely to get better, Hillenbrand was near or at his peak, and you can't deal Hinske unless he improves. So if it's 2006, and Koskie and Hillenbrand have declined, they're unmoveable. They might be sacrificing a chance to get an elite free agent by committing to Hillenbrand and Koskie because they fill immediate needs. And they're not at the point where they should be doing it.

I've watched the Mets make moves like this for years- they spend time getting out from their own mistakes when they could be improving their team. It's the same situation JP came into. He had to try moving guys for scrap. And that's how it seemed this winter- trying to pawn Hinske off to anyone for anything.

At any rate, do you disagree with my premise that Player A is likely to be better going forward?

I think the answer to this is very context-specific. I agree that it's surprising that a player with Garret Anderson's statistical profile has been as consistent as he's been. But I've seen him play and I've seen him perennially produce. I'm not going to say he'll collapse this year, because I don't believe he will.

I don't have to use Hillenbrand and Hinske. I can use Gwynn and Jeremy Giambi. Or Ichiro and Grieve. Point is, it's not a foolproof analysis to say that BA is ephemeral and walks are immutable.

I'm curious to see an analysis of players with matching (or near-matching) OBP and SLG, but significantly different batting averages. Does the lower-average guy project better because walks comprise a greater percentage of his OBP? Yes, batting average is variable, but if you control for power does the edge necessarily go to the lower-average guy? It might. I honestly don't know.

I think it depends on the individual hitter, and whether it's likely that the hitter's average is fluky and therefore prone to sharp decline. Because he never strikes out and has some power, I don't think Shea's hitting profile is too prone to flaky results. By always putting the ball in play, he will (over the course of a season) get more bloops, more broken-bat singles, more unplayable choppers, more gappers and more doubles down the line. He'll also collect more useless pop-ups, more double-play grounders and more sizzling line drives right at people. But the ball's in play so much that over a full season, his breaks should even out. As they always have with him.

Shea's problem, as everyone here has recognized, is that he caps his on-base percentage, the most important hitter's stat, by never walking. He has to basically challenge for the batting title to be an on-base freak, so he'll never be an elite offensive player. No doubt about that.

But there's also as little doubt as there can be that Hillenbrand will put up an OPS+ between 95 and 110 this season. Gross put up a robust 59 in 148 plate appearances last year. Yes, his minor league numbers were superb. But yes, he did struggle when big-league pitchers busted him inside. So there's a slim but real chance he could hit better than Shea, a better chance he'll hit similarly, and a legitimate chance that he'll hit much worse.

To use an analogy that will no doubt set off alarm bells of outrage...college players are supposed to be wiser investments for smaller-revenue clubs because they're less likely to flop, even if they sometimes lack the upside of a high school phenom. Similarly, Hillenbrand is far less likely to flop than Gross. (Not coincidentally, JP explained the move in similar terms.)

But there's also as little doubt as there can be that Hillenbrand will put up an OPS+ between 95 and 110 this season. Gross put up a robust 59 in 148 plate appearances last year. Yes, his minor league numbers were superb. But yes, he did struggle when big-league pitchers busted him inside.

Shea at age 25 put up a 77 in 481. Give Gross 481 AB at age 25 and I'm confident he'll beat that by a lot. I don't know Shea's trends in the minors. But I've followed Gross closely, and it seems like the same pattern at every level- he starts off hitting for low average, keeps his walks up, then eventually the power starts to come. Takes a couple of hundred at-bats but it happens. And as bad as Gross was, his 2004 OB% was only 11 points below Shea's career mark.

Dp, unless something has happened really recently that I haven't heard about, the Jays owe Hillenbrand $0 in 2006. It is in 2005 that Shea is going to get between $2.4 million and $5 million, probably 3.5 to 4.

So they are sacrificing nothing much (a small amount of 2005 $ and a mediocre overage relief pitching prospect).

How about Ed Sprague?
lol

Harking back to the comments on the new drug policy. I'm living in London (UK not Ontario) and this made the radio news here this morning. Not often baseball makes the sports news in the UK, and this wasn't what you'd call a positive report.

The angle on the report was that this makes the US look not only weak, but extremely hypocritical given its also the nation with the biggest anti-drug policy overall. ie. Normal citizens are punished for the slightest transgression but 'stars' get away with anything...

Also mentioned that there was nothing in the policy about (Im trying to remember the type of drug but its escaping me...., was half asleep at the time ;) ) with the comment after that this was probably one of the drugs more widely used for cheating. I think it began with an 'A' ... ?

Ok, as it was for a UK audience the report was a vast over-simplification of the surrounding issues, but thought you'd be interested to know how this ruling is going to seem to 'outsiders'. Baseball may think its making great strides, but to most people this feels like a farce.

Jimbob, the comparison to the US' rediculously harsh drug penalties for ordinary citizens is false. Major League Baseball imposes exactly 0 penalties on ordinary citizens for using drugs, of any kind. Major League Baseball Players have, in the past, been incarcerated for drug use by the US government, but that's an entirely seperate issue.

If you're going to play Hinske, he actually has MORE value at first base than at third, because he's a better 1st baseman relative to the league than he is a 3rd baseman.

This is not true. The fact that Hinske gains defensively relative to the league by moving to first is offset by the fact that first basemen hit better than third basemen. The overall effect is close to neutral.

Still, I support the acquisition of Koskie and the shifting of Hinske to first - at least now we'll have a good defensive infield, which should save Doc a bunch of outs and keep him in games a bit longer.

Andrew, its not me making that comparison, it was in the report on the radio.

UK audiences have little or no idea of the complexities behind this new drugs policy, but they see the US on the one hand preaching around the world about the evil or drugs, and yet on the other they see the national pastime being somewhat lax in its own efforts to stamp out abuse.

Personally I think the position is undefendable. Either you allow drugs in sport or you don't, and if you don't then slapping minimal fines to those caught is not going to act as much of a deterrent. But anyways, lets see how it works out this year. We all shouod accept there is widespread abuse in the MLB, so either there should be lots of bans being handed out, or batting numbers should drop off. Could be an interesting season.

Heres a thought, given this new tougher stance, I wonder how many GM's before signing players wanted to make sure they were 'clean'. No use signing a 30HR guy if you thought these numbers were likely to drop off under a stricter testing policy, or the player was going to end up suspended for 1/2 the season.

If you're going to play Hinske, he actually has MORE value at first base than at third, because he's a better 1st baseman relative to the league than he is a 3rd baseman.

This is not true. The fact that Hinske gains defensively relative to the league by moving to first is offset by the fact that first basemen hit better than third basemen. The overall effect is close to neutral.

I should have clarified that what I mean is that Hinske has more value at first base specific to this ball club. In the abstract sense, yes he probably has more value as a third baseman, he'd collect more Win Shares and post a higher VORP and so on. But consider the specific scenario: You're the Blue Jays and you're committed to playing Hinske. You can play him at 3rd base, 1st base, or DH. If you expect that he'll be good defensive first baseman, and if the best hitter you can reasonably afford to acquire is a third baseman, then your optimal spot for Hinske is first base.

Everybody's favorite past Blue Jay Raul Mondesi has landed a starting RF gig with the Braves at one mil for one season.

Ah, so THIS will be the year the Braves finally miss the playoffs... ;-)

According to Rotoworld, the Dodgers waived former outfielder prospect Chin-Feng Chen for assignment. A righty, he hit .289/.359/.584 in AAA last year. Might be an interesting pick-up if the Jays can slip him into AAA.

According to Rotoworld, the Dodgers waived former outfielder prospect Chin-Feng Chen for assignment. A righty, he hit .289/.359/.584 in AAA last year. Might be an interesting pick-up if the Jays can slip him into AAA.

I was thinking he might be an interesting pickup to stick in the majors as a 25th guy on the roster. He's been in AAA forever.

Screw the 12 man, bullpen. Let's carry an extra hitter!

OF Cat
OF Johnson
OF Wells
OF Rios
OF Chen
1B Hinske
1B Hillenbrand
3B Koskie
2B Hudson
SS Adams
MI McDonald
IF Menechino
C Myers
C Zaun

At the very least, he makes for an interesting NRI...

My picks for favorite 1B,3B, DH,

1B-Carlos Delgado (Since 1978 check out this list of 1B Mayberry,Upshaw,McGriff,Olerud and Delgado)

The Blue Jays have always had great firstbaseman

3B-Gruber (Ed Sprague would be second and Mulliniks 3rd)

DH-Winfield (Canseco had a great 1998 season) Cliff Johnson alltime Jay DH