TSN is reporting on one of their news breaks that the Jays have just signed Billy Koch.

http://tsn.ca/mlb/news_story.asp?id=110749
COMN, for the link to the aforementioned Koch signing.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-diamondbacks-green&prov=ap&type=lgns
I just saw on my yahoo that Green was signed by the D'backs. COMN for details, I posted in the last thread as well.

Funny how TSN assumes Koch will fill the "closer's" role.

Methinks Speier is first in line for that particular job, no?

The D-Backs and Green have agreed on a 3-year $32 million contract, which makes the supposed Hillenbrand deal much more likely now. I was hoping this wouldn't happen.

This probably doesn't count, but there's a reasonably dencet chance I could be a law student within a few years. However, as I'm not a lawayer I will not answer the question.

Methinks Speier is first in line for that particular job, no?

Good gracious I hope so.... *shudders*

I know when JP took the job, this was the off-season he really looked foward to since it would be the first one where he had significant money to play with. If this off-season produces:

Koskie, Hillenbrand, Koch, and McDonald

You can put me in the extremely disappointed camp.

I wonder how much Koch is getting.

miVulgar,

They also mention how Koch "failed" to record a save in 23 appearances with the Marlins. How many were actually save appearances? Was it really that difficult to put "Koch appeared in 23 games for the Marlins after being traded"?

Time to mosey onto the MLB boards and see what their resident geniuses are saying about this move.... /sarcasm

Ron, I think JP is probably just as, if not even more disappointed than you.

The first year he has real funds to play with, and Kris Benson and every other average pitcher is making twice what he signed Batista for the year before, and the fact that all of the major signings have been confined to about half a dozen teams isn't exactly helping matters either.

Look at Baltimore, off the top of my head I don't think they've done much except for Steve Kline.

In retrospect it might have been better to just offer Delgado arbitration, pay him 16 million for a year and see if the market is any better at this time next year; hindsight is 20/20 though.

What disturbs me about the current market is that it's not only the Mets, Red Sox, and Yanks that are dishing out the big bucks.

The small market Reds handed Eric Milton (who imo is a number 3 starter)a 22.5/3 year deal. I actually thought the D-Backs were in financial trouble, and then they go out and sign Ortiz and Glaus for silly numbers.

Of course all it takes is one wacky signing to change the market.

I'm just wondering if JP will use this as an excuse though. I got worried this off-season when he pulled out the "players don't want to play in Canada/players have funky questions about Canada" card for the first time.

But with that said I'm not going to bail out on the club just because I'm extremely disappointed with the moves (or lack of moves) that have taken place this off-season. I hope to travel to Toronto and Seattle this summer to show my support for the Jays.

QOTD

Baseball, like the law, appears to the casual observer to be comprised of lengthy stretches of inanity and occassional flashes of intense action.

Lawyers and astute baseball fans understand that the real action is in subtley engineering the situation (preparing a witness, or moving the infield to double play depth) in order to gain advantages for when the apparent action occurs (litigation, ball in play).

http://fantasybaseball.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?leaguenum=&sport=MLB&id=6218
Rotowire is reporting that Koch will be signed to a minor league deal.

http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/TorontoSun/Sports/2005/01/10/880773-sun.html
Gary Fuson set to join the Jays. COMN

Grady Fuson would be a great addition to the front office. What position would he hold? Assistant GM?

http://www.newbergreport.com
The likelihood of pile-on is too great for me to answer honestly. But there is something to it; truthfully, the real answer as to why lawyers are drawn to baseball, or to why they are drawn to write about it, is no different from the answer as to why anyone is drawn to the game.

How's that for a typical lawyer answer? Lots of words, no substance.

http://www.newbergreport.com
Oh yeah -- where did you guys hear the Fuson news?

Jamey, click on Scott's name.

Is Bob Elliott indulging in some wishful thinking, or are the Jays really interested in Grady Fuson? If Fuson left the Rangers because he couldn't get the GM job he was promised, why would he join the Jays? Moneyball readers will remember that Fuson wasn't exactly cast in the most positive light in the book, although J.P. seems to give scouts a greater voice than Billy Beane would. Were Grady and J.P. buddies?

I can see the reasoning for why the Jays would want Fuson - if J.P. left or they had to fire him, you've got your next GM ready to go. Plus you've got all that experience waiting to be used, and who knows? It might even make Elliott and Griffin happy enough to cut the Jays a break for a month or two.

I feel sorry for J.P. and Rogers, actually. They're trying to behave rationally in a room full of crazy people. Or, more accurately, they're trying to run the Jays in a businesslike fashion, and their competitors are willing to spend tens of millions of dollars on what looks like nothing more than ego gratification.

You can't blame Ted Rogers for not wanting to throw away tens of millions of dollars of his own money. (While I don't know the Jays' financial picture, I'm reasonably certain that Rogers is not using them as a cash cow.) But the problem is this: how can the Jays compete against owners who are willing to wildly overbid on players? Our only hope, as Toronto fans, is that other teams will have spent themselves into bankruptcy with this latest round of bidding, and won't have any money left to fill new holes as they open. Eventually, the supply of eccentric billionaires will run out, won't it?

My biggest concern is that the owners will use this round of overspending as an excuse to try to impose some sort of salary cap when the next round of labour negotiations begins.

And, while I'm here: I predict that the Yankees are soon to be doomed. They would have been far better off ponying up big bucks to sign Carlos Beltran, rather than throwing money at Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, and Tony Womack (Tony Womack!?). The Torre-era Yankees have been successful because (a) they brought up a core of great players from the minors, and (b) they signed the best players they could find. Well, now they no longer have (a) - and, while they're still signing some outstanding players (e.g., Mr. Unit), they seem to be relying more on quantity than quality. Steinbrenner seems intent on collecting every name player over the age of 35, as if they were Topps cards and he needed to complete his set. One or two significant injuries - which is quite likely, given the team's average age - and the Yankees will drop like rocks.

Fuson is a great addition if it's true.

Koch.. and Hillebrand....I'm also disappointed..

Looking at the Available Free Agents;

For A ROOGY,I don't hate:
- Bottalico (1x1M), Boehringer (1x1M), Mecir(2x$6M), Shuey (Minor League Deal), White(2x$4M), or Jeff Zimmerman(incentive laden)

and for that "extra bat" I don't suppose I HATE Hillebrand,
but I kinda like:
- Bautista, Fullmer, Jordan, Greer, or Magglio Ordonnez.. (ok, I know,... but its nice to dream)

I'm an articling student in Alberta now and was finishing law school in Ontario when I first became a Bauxite. I do the other lawyerly thing and be the devil's advocate. When I moved to Ontario, I was really looked forward to being in driving range to Skydome and Comerica (I went to Western). I was under the impression that I'd find many more baseball fans in Ontario than I did in Alberta. I was shocked at the level of baseball apathy I found. When I wanted to go to a game, I had to twist the arms of the few future lawyer baseball fans I found.

BTW, is anyone else having trouble with Firefox and ESPN's website? My Firefox doesn't want to open some ESPN pages.

BTW, is anyone else having trouble with Firefox and ESPN's website? My Firefox doesn't want to open some ESPN pages.

I'm having the same problems in Netscape.

Wow, I'm blown away by the potential of Fuson coming to Toronto.
The article wasn't exactly clear on what's happening, but I'll keep my fingers crossed, this could be a significant addition to the Jays.

BTW, is anyone else having trouble with Firefox and ESPN's website? My Firefox doesn't want to open some ESPN pages.

Yes, I'm having problems.

Often, when I try to open pages on ESPN, Firefox prompts to select a helper application to open an "application octet/stream" document.

Hitting reload sometimes helps.

Gary Fuson set to join the Jays. COMN

I think that overstates the situation, at least according to the article.

Moneyball readers will remember that Fuson wasn't exactly cast in the most positive light in the book, although J.P. seems to give scouts a greater voice than Billy Beane would. Were Grady and J.P. buddies?

As Voros pointed out in the BA roundtable last week there were things in Moneyball that were painted in a way to make a better story.

If there was some sort of animosity between Fuson and JP I doubt Fuson would consider a position in Toronto. It's not like it would be his only option.

I like the idea of Fuson coming to Toronto but I agree, having read the Elliott article, that it doesn't sound like a sure thing whatsoever.

The Koch signing is nice. Not great mind you, but Koch is a cheap, low-risk veteran signing. Although he may not have the stuff to close anymore, Koch brings some experience to a fairly youthful staff. And you can never have enough pitching.

The Mets are real excited about the signing of Beltran but will they be that excited in three years. My feeling is that at $15-17 million a season, Beltran is overpaid by $5-7 million a year. His regular season numbers are good but not THAT good. Sure he had one good post season but will he be able to repeat that performance and will the Mets even make the playoffs? They also still lack a closer and a first baseman.

I also think the D-Backs are going to rue the day they gave Green a three year $10 million-plus contract with his numbers declining. I hope, for the D-Backs sake, that the production drop off was a result of playing in a pitcher's park.

Speaking of overpaid, how did Lowe end up getting $8 or $9 million a season for four years with a 5-plus ERA?

Lawyers like "words"--we read and write every day. That's how I made my living. It's not surprising that we should read and write about things we are interested in--like baseball. That may be why Mick sees a disproportionate amount of writing from lawyers. The second aspect of this issue is whether lawyers are interested in baseball to a disproportionate degree. I can't answer that one. I like baseball becuase it was what I did with my father. My son, who is not a lawyer, probably likes it because it's what he did with me, when he was growing up

I'd need to go back at look more closely at Fuson's Texas drafts, because I'm not sure how well or how poorly the Rangers did during his time there. Mick and/or Jamey, can you provide any insight?

One should never refuse to hire good, smart people in one's front office. However, the Jays already have a very good Scouting Director in Jon Lalonde, a very good Director of Player Personnel in Tony Lacava and a very good Assistant GM in Tim McCleary. I'm not sure where Fuson would fit into that mix, and as was mentioned above, Grady clearly wants to be a GM at some point soon. Elliott's article mentions that other teams are interested in Fuson, and Elliott is also the man who told us the Jays had no chance of signing Corey Koskie, so at this point I won't put too much stock in this report.

Koch would be a reasonably priced, low-risk signing. He most certainly won't be allowed anywhere near the closer's role, but he could be useful in low-pressure situations, maybe even in long relief. I don't expect much from him, but it'd be nice to be pleasantly surprised.

Whenever I think of lawyers and baseball, I think of The Common Law Origins of the Infield Fly Rule, 123 U. Pa. L. Rev. 1474 (1975), which I've been unable to find on the Web but which is a brilliant piece of both baseball history and satire. For me, the abundance of lawyers in modern baseball writing and analysis is all the more remarkable because by and large, lawyers are not trained to think or write this way. The hallmarks of sabrmetric analysis are innovation, creativity and thinking outside the box, three attributes that law school deadens in students and the practice of law surgically removes from lawyers. I'd wager that most baseball-minded lawyers stand out in their workplaces as slightly idiosyncratic at best and "not team players" at worst. The best legal minds, unfortunately, rarely find their best expression within the law.

Who were the Dodgers bidding against to sign Lowe to the rumoured contract? Themselves? Never heard a peep about him this off-season.

Lowe would just be one signing in a long list that make no sense.
Maybe DePodesta is just feeling the peer pressure.

Lowe gets the big contract for the same reason Beltran did -- one huge, spotlight-centric postseason where TV announcers and columnists kept repeating, "Boy, is he driving up his market value for this offseason!" And it became true.

Jordan, that's a great answer to the QOTD; I'm not going to try to answer the Fusaon draft question, will leave that to Jamey if he returns or Scott Lucas, who certainly knows a lot more about the Rangers than I do. But as a daily reader of the Newberg Minor League Report e-mail, I can tell you that it sure feels like the Ranger farm system is in the best shape it's been since Toby Harrah was traded for Buddy Bell.

It seems to me that Jamey, csimon and Jordan are all circling the same answer ... baseball is a talkin' sport, and lawyers love to talk; baseball is a thinking man's game, and lawyers love to think; baseball, like law is all about developing a winning strategy mixed with a fair portion of luck. Is there more to that?

Since I'm responding to everything else, I'll also add that yes, Firefox now appears to hate ESPN.com but it's random and unpredictable. I'm a big Firefox fan now (thanks, Joe) but this is getting ... annoying.

MatO, the only other team I heard of that was interested in Lowe was the Tigers, who were willing to overpay to attract free agents. So maybe that's how the price became so inflated.

On the Fan this morning they were saying that the Yankees didn't go after Beltran because they were already facing $40 million in Luxury Tax and didn't feel that they could afford him.

Whahaha? They drew the line?

By the by, in case it gets lost in the weekend shuffle, Vernon's Biggest Fan posted in the QOTW thread that they'd been talking to someone at SkyDome and that the new JumboTron, 360 degree scoreboard around the 300 level and Field Turf are a go for the coming season, and that the old JumboTron has already been taken down.

Nice to have this stuff confirmed.

I was concerned about my potential attendance for the coming season because little Theodore (who turns 18 days old today) will be only four months old when the season commences. However, so far he's remarkably calm, has no objections to Daddy's stereo system and is easily entertained, so I'll be giving at least one game a shot early on. Plus, when I was at Fenway last summer we were sitting beside the on-call doctor for the park (it's a sweet gig -- pay's next to nothing, but they give you really nice season's tickets and you get to see most of every game because there are rarely any big medical emergencies, though he said that there's a broken arm/leg/nose/hand/foot at every other game or so), and he was there with his wife and their five month old.

Theo and I already have matching Jays jerseys, so we're prepared.

Firefox now appears to hate ESPN.com but it's random and unpredictable.

Hrmmm. No problems for me yet. *knocks on wood*.

But then again, I only use Firefox at work, so I just started wasting time :)

http://insidebayarea.com/oaklandtribune/ci_2499830
Fuson is also being linked to the A's,(Comm)I'd like to see him in Toronto, you can never have too many smart guys.

you can never have too many smart guys.

You know, I don't agree with that, as obvious as it may sound. "Too many cooks" and all that. If the more smart guys and good ideas the better, then the old Cubby "College of Coaches" would have caught on.

It requires a strict and unwavering chain of commmand, and I'm not convinced Fuson, Ricciardi, Law and all -- who each seem to believe very strongly that they are right -- would all fit in the same office.

And by the way, "who each seem to believe very strongly that they are right," with good reason.

Obviously, Riccardi would only bring in guys he could work with, would you rather have a bunch of dumb guys with no original ideas? Beane doesn't seemed too concerned with having Fuson around and neither apparently, does Riccardi.

Who were the Dodgers bidding against to sign Lowe to the rumoured contract?

An LA paper said that the Tigers offered more money to Lowe than the Dodgers.

When the only other team you're bidding against is the Tigers, you'd be wise to stop and think about that for a moment.

If Beane, Fuson, DePodesta, and JP can build a winner working together in Oakland, then I fail to see the problem with having Fuson here.

An LA paper said that the Tigers offered more money to Lowe than the Dodgers.

Wow.

On the Fan this morning they were saying that the Yankees didn't go after Beltran because they were already facing $40 million in Luxury Tax and didn't feel that they could afford him.

Nice to see the luxury tax working as it was designed :-)

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/scouting?statsId=6218
I like the Koch signing, although I haven't seen any financial terms and hopefully it includes a second year option.(Comm for his scouting report)

-He's still relatively young, born in late 1974.

-Power pitchers with high K ratios seem to age well.

-I have a lot of faith in the abilities of Brad Arnsberger, particularly in his history with strong arms( Beckett, Burnett, Penny et. all... )

- He missed time last year with off-field issues (marital problems?), which may have colored his numbers. I believe he's a good friend of Halladay's(I believe he found out he was traded to the A's while on Ray's fishing boat)which can only help.

I know this guy is frustrating to watch at times, but this deal has all sorts of upside.

He's still relatively young, born in late 1974.

Hey! That means I'm still relatively young. Score!

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/news_story.asp?id=110766
TSN is reporting that the Jays have signed Ken Huckaby and Pete Walker to minor league deals with invitations to spring training. COMN.

TSN is reporting that the Jays have signed Ken Huckaby and Pete Walker to minor league deals with invitations to spring training.

What, and not Duane Ward?

I won't speak for other lawyers. For me, the attraction of baseball is three-fold, in no particular order:

1. It's the game I loved as a kid, probably because it was not violent (are kids who eschew violence more likely to end up as lawyers rather than say mechanics or pilots?),
2. It lends itself to fairly sophisticated mathematical and logical analysis (there are a number of very fine bridge players who are lawyers, so this might be an indicator), and
3. There is much fine writing on baseball, probably more so than on other sports (and I would guess that a disproportionate number of journalists and authors find baseball interesting).

The White Sox of the mid-80s had Rudy Law and Vance Law. The law was indeed everywhere.

Another great move by J.P., signing Huckaby and Walker. High upside with little risk, and at the very least, good insurance in case of injuries.

Can anyone find Walkers numbers from last year?

Walker spent the 2004 season in Japan after having his contract purchased from Toronto by the Yokohama BayStars of the Central League. He pitched to a 2-4 record with a 6.80 ERA in 10 games/starts with the BayStars.

Yikes.

"TSN is reporting that the Jays have signed Ken Huckaby and Pete Walker to minor league deals with invitations to spring training. COMN."

Deja vu anyone?

Pumped, from the TSN article...

He pitched to a 2-4 record with a 6.80 ERA in 10 games/starts with the BayStars.

I can see the Huckaby signing for depth, but I don't see much point in the Walker signing.

I'm not sure "high upside" is quite the right word to describe either player, but they are certainly solid minor league signings. Huckaby could be quite useful if we have injury issues at catcher again and want to keep Quiroz in Triple-A. The bullpen picture isn't clear yet and Walker's another decent candidate for a long reliever/middle inning right-hander role, and he can also start if needed. We won't be in great shape if we use either player, but they are good players to have around as needed.

Can anyone find Walkers numbers from last year?

They are included in the TSN article I referenced above. He was 2-4 with a 6.80 era in 10 appearances.

Oh, and as a lawyer, I second each and every one of the explanations posited above.

Ooops, I'm an idiot. I read the Jays press release without looking at the TSN one.

Walker was great for the Jays in 03. As I remember, he was quite effective as a spot starter, and in long relief.

Can you really have too much depth in your system? After the injuries last year, my answer would be an emphatic no.

Huckaby's value will presumably be as Quiroz's personal catching coach in AAA. He certainly has no place on a major league roster, other than in a coaching capacity.

Not sure what Pete Walker's upside is. I suppose if everything breaks exactly right, he could be a passable 11th man on the staff making close to minimum dollars.

High upside?????

When the only other team you're bidding against is the Tigers, you'd be wise to stop and think about that for a moment.

There was a good discussion at Primer on Friday looking at what the Dodgers rationale might have been for committing that much money to Lowe.

I wonder if the Jays added Walker because they expected to lose Peterson from the Skychief's bullpen?

As it stands, here is the pitching depth available at triple-A in 2005... keeping in mind a few pitchers may end up on the Jays roster or in double-A.

Pitchers (25)
J. Matos
C. Reimers
M. Nannini
J. Arnold
A. Peterson
J. Vermilyea
S. Andrade
J. DeJong
P. Walker
J. Ogiltree
R. Houston
L. Gronkiewicz
S. Lundberg
M. Whiteside
C. Baker
M. Smith
C. Gaudin
K. Frederick
S. Song
J. Miller
S. Downs
B. League
R. Glynn
V. Chulk
G. Chacin
B. Koch

As it stands, here is the pitching depth available at triple-A in 2005... keeping in mind a few pitchers may end up on the Jays roster or in double-A.

Pitchers (25)
J. Matos
C. Reimers
M. Nannini
J. Arnold
A. Peterson
J. Vermilyea
S. Andrade
J. DeJong
P. Walker
J. Ogiltree
R. Houston
L. Gronkiewicz
S. Lundberg
M. Whiteside
C. Baker
M. Smith
C. Gaudin
K. Frederick
S. Song
J. Miller
S. Downs
B. League
R. Glynn
V. Chulk
G. Chacin
B. Koch

Carlos Tosca's ideal roster composition.

Pitchers (25)

Carlos Tosca's ideal roster composition.

At one out per man, you're still 2 pitchers short.

Do I smell a 4-day tandem rotation of 8 starters???

2005 Jays Organinzation possibly?

Po - Toronto - Syracuse - New Hamps - Dunedin - Lansing

C - Zaun - Quiroz - Schneider - Thigpen - Diaz
1B - Hinske - Crozier - Snyder - Metropolous - Cannon
2B - Hudson - Rich - Cota - Roberts - Hall
3B - Koskie - Hattig - Cosby - Esposito - Rivera
SS - Adams - Hill - Tablado - Mayorson - Klosterman
LF - Cat - Griffin - Davenport - Medina - Mangioni
CF - Wells - French - Negron - Tingler - Y-Rod
RF - Rios - Gross - Jova - Lind - Davis
DH - Hillenbrand - Alfaro - Vito - Snavely - Anderson

C - Myers - Huckaby - Whittaker - Reiman - Wolfe
IF - Menechino - Matos - Solano - Acey - Peralta
OF - Reed - Singleton - Godwin - Smith - Nielsen
X - McDonald - Acuna - Waugh - Dragicevich - Galloway

SP - Halladay - Rosario - Banks - Romero - Jackson
SP - Lilly - League - Reimers - Purcey - McKenzie
SP - Batista - Arnold - Marcum - MacDonald - Perez
SP - Bush - Chacin - McGowan - Core - Janssen
SP - Towers - Song - Ramirez - James - Isenberg

RP - Koch - Houston - Buzachero - Pleiness - McLaughlin
RP - Frasor - Vermilyea - Gronk - Dalton - Rodriguez
RP - Speier - Matos - Baker - Tavarez - Tate
RP - Miller - Nannini - Torres - Maureau - Day
RP - Ligtenberg - Andrade - Dejong - Thorpe - Timm
RP - Chulk - Gaudin - Perkins - Rico - Leonard
RP - Downs - Glynn - Carlson - Reed - Mora

Outside looking in (til injuries hit):
Smith
Douglass
Ogiltree
Jackson
Whiteside
Lundberg
Burnside
Walker
Canizal
Sopko
Sandoval
Harper
Patrick
Arnold

Any thought, quibbles, something I've missed?

(I've assumed the Hillenbrand/Peterson swap)

grr...I hate not knowing HTML

grr...I hate not knowing HTML

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/roster?team=tor
For those of you with a bit off time on your hands, ESPN (COMM)(and yes, I have trouble loading ESPN at times to with Netscape )has recently posted updated scouting reports on most players on their data base. I believe this is the first update in awhile so its a good read, I just checked Ted Lilly's bio and it seemed bang on. Who's ever writing this stuff has pretty good insight.

http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1855&Year=2004&Part=1
COMN for Pete Walker's stats in Japan.

If there's something positive to be said about his 2004 season, it's that he hit .333 with runners in scoring posititon.

Other than the lawyers here on Da Box, I have three friends who are lawyers, and that number will grow further now that I'm working at a law school. What's the common thread of these friends, other than receiving money from me so I can call them "friends"? They all want to write. Right after he finished law school, my former roomate, along with yours truly, started writing a screenplay, and, like most writers, we didn't get very far. (But our intent was real!) Another friend had also collaborated (fruitlessly) with an actual paid screenwriter (the writer of "Elf" and "Haunted Mansion") before giving that up to produce video games for Activision. And still another friend just graduated law school and wants to develop a pilot about, surprise surprise, lawyers.

There is the obvious John Grisham connection, of course, and over the years countless lawyers have been well-known writers. Dissatifaction at work occurs in any field, but for whatever reason, the friends I have who are most dissatisfied are lawyers. True, nobody's more dissatisfied than I am, but then again, nobody's quite more useless than a Marxist-leaning English major with no appreciable skills.

I was watching the news the other day and there was a piece that refered to Pete Walker as a Blue Jay pitcher (he was teaching at a clinic) and I didn't think anything of it at the time, just figured it was another local news mistake - guess they were right.

'nobody's quite more useless than a Marxist-leaning English major with no appreciable skills.'

Communications major?

I figure Pete Walker is one of those cases of a player going to Japan and finding it just didn't work for him. Different culture, language issues, food issues, family issues. For some it works great (Cecil Fielder) for others it just doesn't work at all.

Yes, Jim, I have the terrific two-some: BA in communication (journalism), MA in English. Hooray for my job prospects!

Oh, and as a lawyer, I second each and every one of the explanations posited above.

Is it absurd to think that as many as a quarter of the regular posters are either lawyers or law students? That's incredible.

A motivated English major can write his (or her) own ticket ... there is always a place in the business world for good writers. You just have to be willing to sell out to corporate America/Canada. The best corporate communications professionals spent their college years writing term papers about Ethan Frome and wasting away hours in the college newspaper office. I've sold out, while Gitz is standing on principles.

Caveats: this should not be read to mean all English majors are good writers; this is absolutely not true. To bring it back on topic a bit, I was surprised as an undergrad how many of my fellow English majors went on to law school and how many of them surmised I would, too.

Incidentally, I used to tell people I had a double major (eventually a minor) in Philosophy primarily to learn ways to deal with the fact that there are no jobs for English majors.

Yes, Jim, I have the terrific two-some: BA in communication (journalism), MA in English. Hooray for my job prospects!

Although I think that the balance is made up of those who work in some form of media...which may be even more odd.

Although I only post on here occasionally, I am on here reading posts each and every day... and I am also a lawyer.

Is it absurd to think that as many as a quarter of the regular posters are either lawyers or law students? That's incredible.

Just keep this fact in mind next time you hear lawyers complain about how busy they are! Although I probably would be getting home from work a lot earlier if it weren't for Da Box...

I have a communications degree yet I'm a financial underwriter... sorry not a lawyer.

Math major here, working in IT. Interestingly, one of my biggest assets I had when going for my M.A. in math was my ability to write; it compensated quite a bit for the fact that my math background wasn't well suited for the particular courses I was taking. And it helped me *a lot* on my survey paper.

Regarding the Koch, Walker, and Huckaby signings, I agree with most here. Certainly not signing that will have a big impact on the ML team if everything else goes to plan, but Huckaby and Walker are good, cheap insurance and are known commodities to the Jays. As for Koch, like most I've not been too impressed with his performance the last few seasons (and even back to his last year with the Jays, really), and I doubt he'll become a dominant closer again, but if he can get back anywhere close to the form of his first couple years it will be a significant boost to the bullpen. Heck, even if he continues what he's been doing recently, he at least can't be any worse than whomever he replaces, given the said state of the Jays' pen...

nobody's quite more useless than a Marxist-leaning English major with no appreciable skills.

Don't be so hard on yourself. I should think a capitalist-leaning English major with no appreciable skills would certainly be no more useful, and far less ideologically sound. :)

If there's something positive to be said about his 2004 season, it's that he hit .333 with runners in scoring posititon.

Ok, you mean Walker here... but

He pitched to a 2-4 record with a 6.80 ERA in 10 games/starts with the BayStars

Are those Walker's numbers?? Or Huckaby's....
I'm thinking Huck plays the part of "Bobby Estallela" right?

nobody's quite more useless than a Marxist-leaning English major with no appreciable skills.

It certainly gives new insight into the origins of 'from each according to his ability, to each according to his need'.

People usually rank journalists and lawyers at the bottom of those "Who do you respect?" polls, which is pretty funny, considering that people would be screwed six ways to Sunday if not for an independent Bar and a free press. It's not really surprising, then, that two of the American right's favourite targets these days are "trial lawyers" and "the liberal media."

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/main/article/2005_projections_devil_rays_rangers_blue_jays/
Zips projections up for the Jays over at primer(comm).

Anyone know what happened to Bob File? Did he sign a minor league deal with another team after he was dropped from the 40 man roster?

The only major quibbles with the list are that Vito should be at 1B at AA and Godwin was Rule 5'd (probably will be returned).

I don't know HTML, but here's an interesting piece out of Detroit:

http://www.detnews.com/2005/tigers/0501/10/D04-54962.htm

I'm assuming that because the Green deal is done in 'Zona, Hillenbrand will coming here shortly.
Could Detroit be the new home for Mr. Hinske?
I'd love to know whether JP could get Matt Anderson in some sort of package deal. With Percival & Urbina, Anderson has pretty much lost any hope of becoming the closer of the future there. 2 years ago the guy looked like a superstar in the making. Anyone know his health status?

Grand Funk out.

Thanks, Wildrose.

ZiPS projects the Blue Jay starting pitching and offence to be OK, but not the bullpen. Eric Crozier is, if you believe the projection, by far the best option at first base. Gabe Gross should be your leftfielder, and the catching should be fine. Among the pitchers, Dave Bush will continue as he was, and will be one of the top 15 starters in the league, as will Roy Halladay. Ted Lilly will, according to ZiPS, be an average pitcher.

The bullpen will be bad according to ZiPS. The best mark among 2004 Jay relievers will be achieved by neither Justin Speier nor Brandon League, but....Mike Nakamura (if he found himself in the major leagues in 2005 and getting regular work).

And, IIRC, I'm pretty sure Douglass signed a minor league deal with Detroit.

Last year Matt Anderson had a 5.82 ERA in Triple-A Toledo with 25 K's compared to 23 BB's in 34 innings. He's basically done in terms of major league baseball. He's not had a good year in the majors since 2000, and even then it was thought to be much better than it was due to his fastball. The last time he had a year significantly better than average was 1998.

i.e. I'd pass on Anderson.

I don't know HTML, but here's an interesting piece out of Detroit

From the Q&A piece: The problems with Hinske -- he would need to be acquired via trade -- are somewhat cryptic.

Cryptic? Huh?

That's some projection for Gabe Gross - .268/.364/.402. I could buy the slugging, but the OBP seems pretty optimistic to me.

The rest of the hitting projections look reasonable to me.

ZIPS doesn't think Lilly's going to have a good year - projected 4.79 ERA.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1963769
Apparently the Mets still have their sights set on Delgado. COMN.

Apparently the Mets still have their sights set on Delgado.

Odd that the article would cite the A's and Giants as potential suitors. Neither team likes to spend big and both have 1B/DH filled, albeit with lesser talents than Delgado.

FWIW, my own guess for Gross would be .265/.350/.425. Crozier's projection, .266/.352/.461, is the one I really doubt.

If I'm Barry Bonds -- and I'm not, my head is much smaller -- I'd offer 30% of my salary for SFG to sign Delgado, then go out and hit 88 home runs with him in the four spot.

If I'm Barry Bonds -- and I'm not, my head is much smaller -- I'd offer 30% of my salary for SFG to sign Delgado, then go out and hit 88 home runs with him in the four spot.

Assuming you're not indicted for being ignorant of taking steroids.

It would make a lot of sense for the Giants to have Delgado (or anyone good offensively) besides Bonds. I would hope their signing of Omar Vizquel doesn't preclude them from getting Carlos. That would be a fun lineup to watch.

SF would probably be a good option for Delgado, too: Sign a one-year deal for a not-exorbitant amount, drive in 150 runs, sign a whopping long-term deal in 2006.

AP and Rotoworld are now reporting that the Koch deal is a major league deal for $900,000. Not sure I like the signing as much as I did when I thought it was a minor league deal...

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/news/tor_news.jsp?ymd=20050108&content_id=928908&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp
Mailbag time! COMN

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/main/article/2005_projections_brewers_twins_nationals/
ZiPS had Koskie at .267/.370/.465. COMN. The change in ballpark would not likely affect his projection significantly.

If the ZiPS projections are accurate, the optimal starting lineup-Quiroz/Zaun, Crozier, Hudson, Adams, Koskie, Gross, Wells, Rios and Catalanotto/Menenchino- would have an OBP of .348. That's probably 5-10 points higher than is realistic, but still it's nice to have a little bit of sunshine.

Mike Nakamura

Hence the fallibility of ZiPS. Yes, ZiPS, we get it -- walks are bad. And they are.

But so is a complete inability to get any major league hitters out, I'm afraid.

I think we forget how good of a prospect Gross actually is, certainly ZIPS seems to indicate that he's every bit as good as Rios.

You could make a good arguement ,that given the teams chances of competing for a wild card in 2005 are not realistically optimum, you should treat it as a developmental season. Play the young guys, forget about Hillenbrand, give Gross the job to lose, have Cat be the D.H. and so on.

Unfortunately I think media, fan and internal pressure from within the organization seem to be precluding this approach.

Has there been anything evenly remotely hinted at since Green agreed that the Hillebrand deal is going to happen, or are we all just assuming?

http://www.bluejayway.ca/features/me/me011005.php
I finally got off the dime and wrote a new column for Blue Jay Way; COMN to read it.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20050110/DIGE10TOR-1/TPSports/Baseball
Has there been anything evenly remotely hinted at since Green agreed that the Hillebrand deal is going to happen, or are we all just assuming?

COMN

I read it earlier, nice work Matthew!!! Hopefully some of that optimism wears off on the rest of us.

The Hillenbrand deal was also mentioned in articles about the Green signing in a couple of Arizona newspapers this morning.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/ny-spunit0111,0,948814.story?coll=ny-homepage-big-pix
COMN for entertainment. Gonna be a fun summer in NY, methinks.

Check out this exerpt from an article about the Koch signing from the Jays website.

"Koch will likely take over the closer's role for the Blue Jays, who used Jason Frasor, Justin Speier and Miguel Batista at the back of the bullpen last year."

Ian Harrison, you're no Dr. Prison Fence. Unless Koch has undergone a stunning off-season transformation, he will not be the Blue Jays closer in 2005 or any subsequent year beginning with a 2.

italics off!

I'll go with what the GM said to ESPN.com:

"General manager J.P.Ricciardi expressed interest in Koch at the winter meetings but said at the time that right-hander likely wouldn't figure in the closer's role."

But Jordan, Koch is a CLOSER. I mean, he's not just some bullpen guy that we're calling a closer, he's a REAL CLOSER! Don't we need one of those?

Please note: when closing italics, the slash goes before the "I", not after it: [/i] (with < and > replacing [ and ]).

Koch will likely take over the closer's role for the Blue Jays, who used Jason Frasor, Justin Speier and Miguel Batista at the back of the bullpen last year."

Whats next,Creek as the set up man?

I enjoyed reading about Randy Johnson shoving and yelling at a photographer and causing anxiety among Yankee executives.

Please keep the Randy Johnson shoving-and-yelling-and-causing-anxiety stories coming.

I'm snowed under by work at the moment, but if anyone else had time to paste the ZiPS projections into a spreadsheet...

What does ZiPS total for our runs scored and runs allowed next year (after removing Delgado, adding Koskie, and so on)? Taken with a gallon of salt, it would provide a quasi-scientific projection for wins. I suspect the answer will come out ludicrously wrong but it would be interesting to know.

he's a REAL CLOSER! Don't we need one of those?

Anagram says: real closer = clear loser

I assume that Huckaby was signed because the Jays need a catching partner for Quiroz at AAA and/or insurance if one of the major league catchers gets hurt.

As for Walker and Koch: you can never have too much pitching. In my opinion, it's best to sign a whole bunch of pitchers and see which ones aren't awful. I don't have much hope for Walker, and even less than that for Koch, but you never know.

That post:funny::Jordan:genius
QED.

Please keep the Randy Johnson shoving-and-yelling-and-causing-anxiety stories coming.

I'll do my best. Meanwhile, I'm waiting for his next SkyDome appearance to see if Frank Menechino gets nailed on the first pitch.

I do not want to watch Billy Koch turn a three-run lead into a heart-stopping situation, no matter what the inning. I've seen it too many times, and I am bored with it. Ricciardi, go get us another movie.

Anagram says: real closer = clear loser

Brillant!

I do not want to watch Billy Koch turn a three-run lead into a heart-stopping situation, no matter what the inning. I've seen it too many times, and I am bored with it. Ricciardi, go get us another movie.

Well, there's really little to object to with a minor league deal.

A $900,000 contract on the other hand raises many questions. One of them being why not sign Chris Hammond at 2/3 that price as the Padres did?

Funny how little attention Chris Hammond and even Gabe White seemed to get. Remind me, do the Jays have a lefty in the pen? Am I drawing a blank for a reason?

I think the only lefty they have is Scott Downs, who signed a minor league deal earlier in the off-season.

I do not want to watch Billy Koch turn a three-run lead into a heart-stopping situation, no matter what the inning.

If he's forced to prove his worth in middle relief, as I hope will be the case, maybe you'll just be watching 3-run deficits turn into 6-run deficits.

Trust me, you want no part of Gabe White. NO PART!!

I do not want to watch Billy Koch turn a three-run lead into a heart-stopping situation, no matter what the inning

I think all Jays fans everywhere sympathize with that sentiment PoH, but the fact remains that even with his rather inconsistent history, Koch is still a much more reliable option than the majority of other relievers presently on the Jays' roster. Hey, at least Koch had significant success at SOME point in his career...

I certainly don't want to see him close, at least not right away, but I think he will be a decent pickup in any event. Also, I really think he still has potential. This is probably my memory of the 1999-2000 Billy Koch talking, but IF he proves himself in whatever role he is given (long guy, middle relief, possibly setup), AND no one else has established themselves as the closer by then, I wouldn't be terribly adverse to giving him another shot...

Trust me, you want no part of Gabe White. NO PART!!

Dave, where does this pain come from? The 25 earned runs White allowed in his 33 innings as a Yankee?

White is a crapshoot, to be sure, but he has the annoying habit of being pretty good once in a while (though admittedly never while donned in pinstripes).

Chuck, as you pointed out he was awful with the Yanks, absolutly awful. I think he's better off in the national league, where he had some success, but staying in the AL East would do absolutly nothing for him. If anything, he'd get worse because he'd now have to face not only Boston and Baltimore as he did before, but the Yanks as well.

He's not worth the effort.

Maybe putting Koch in as closer isn't a bad idea. As we all know, 2005 is to determine what the Jays have for 2006/07. Koch could rack up a handful of cheap saves early, get up to 15-20 by the All Star break and then be traded for some nice prospects from a desperate contender regardless of how Koch is actually pitching as, after all, Koch is a "proven closer" who now would've "regained his form". It might cost the Jays a win or two, but if Koch is limited to one inning, 2 or more run lead then the Jays should be OK unless you think his ERA would be in the 18 range 8)

What does ZiPS total for our runs scored and runs allowed next year (after removing Delgado, adding Koskie, and so on)? Taken with a gallon of salt, it would provide a quasi-scientific projection for wins. I suspect the answer will come out ludicrously wrong but it would be interesting to know.

Since I wasted half an hour of my life calculating this before realizing the large, crippling flaw in the data, I thought I'd post my results anyways just to make me feel better about wasting my life.

If we use the ZiPS data for a year long MLB team of Zaun, Thrillhouse, O-Dog, Hinske, Menechino, F-Cat, Gross, Sparky, Rios, Wells, Myers, Koskie we collect the following numbers:

H= 1503
AB = 5504
BB= 567
TB = 1b= 1503, (2b=319 x 2), (3b=34 x 3), (hr=141 x 4) = 2807

We can then attempt to predict runs created, however I was to slow on the uptake to realize the ZiPS gave everyone alot more ABs than they will actually recieve thus producing a bloated TB number and an even more exagerated RunsCreated of 957 which nobody should expect unless they want to be severly disapointed.

So if anyone can actually manipulate the ZiPS numbers for an accurate projection, that would be more helpful than the minutes of my life I just wasted.

Jobu's motto is "Wasting time on the internet since 1996."

Or maybe that's my motto.

http://www.bluejayscheerclub.com
Actually the boys in marketing told me to go with "Wastin' Time since '89" 'cuse it sounded niftier.

Koch could rack up a handful of cheap saves early, get up to 15-20 by the All Star break and then be traded for some nice prospects from a desperate contender

No offense John, wasn't that the game plan for Escobar in 2003? ;)

I think my television would implode if it had to endure another summer of me yelling "just throw a friggin' strike". Koch had one nice season of control (18 BB in 79 IP in 2000) but has been pretty wild otherwise, culminating in his 2004 effort of 36 BB in 49 IP.

Jobu,

Perhaps I'm dense or over-tired, but I don't quite see the inconsitency. 5504 AB with 1503 H would mean a team AVG of .273 (not unreasonable). During 162 games we would have made 5504-1503=4001 outs, plus double plays. This comes to 24.7 outs per game plus double plays, which doesn't seem completely out of whack. A bit on the high side, but not much.

I must be missing something.

Actually, Jobu, the method is not really far off. Your total bases figure is incorrect; you show a team slugging percentage of .510, and if you look at the individual ZiPS projections, that's not possible.

If you cut Sparky's PAs by 1/2 (assuming he'd be platooning with Gross, and get some work relieving the other 2 outfielders) and substitute Quiroz for Myers, you'd actually get roughly 650 PAs from each position. You'd have to give 100-150 PAs to John McDonald.

I think my television would implode if it had to endure another summer of me yelling "just throw a friggin' strike". Koch had one nice season of control (18 BB in 79 IP in 2000) but has been pretty wild otherwise, culminating in his 2004 effort of 36 BB in 49 IP.

If the problem is mechanical, then maybe a good pitching coach can fix him? Maybe they should hire a shrink as well, just in case...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=7
Andrew K is right. 5504 AB is a perfectly normal season total. COMN.

Should be H=1503 with

1b=1503-319-34-141=1009
2b=319
3b=34
hr=141

for a total of 1503?

If the problem is mechanical, then maybe a good pitching coach can fix him?

Paging Old McDonald. We have a Billy Goat to fix. Nooooooo, not that kind of fix.

The rationale for signing Koch to a major league contract is unclear. He has had control problems, as Chuck points out, every year except 2000, and last year, there was a mysterious loss of velocity. To me, this raises arm health concerns.

http://www.bluejayscheerclub.com
Sorry guys, what I ment to say was that it gave certain players too many ABs, not the team total of ABs, which I tried to manipulate by cutting some bench players to bring it down 5504 ABs (Originally I have Crozier in the calculations which gave the Jays 5888 ABs). The solution would be a limiting factor of invidividaul ABs as Mike suggested, but I couldn't decifer how many to give to whom. Perhaps if we pool our "skills" we can get a more accurate number than most runs in MLB.

If my guess about the total base error is correct, we would have
tb=2313 and runs=789, I think. Which would suck.

So, Jobu, with Andrew K's adjustments, you arrive at team OBP/slug of .342/.420 (if you remember the HBPs). That'll generate a very optimistic 800 runs.

789 would give us a league median, on par with the 04 Cubs, something I would be pleased with. Either way it's better than this year's 719. And Mike raises a good point, in that I did not include HBP in the walk totals, which Sparky The Baseball Magnet would add too.

Okay, so I give up on work for the night. If we take the pitchers:

Hallady, Batista, Lilly, Bush, Towers
Ligtenberg, Nakamura, Chulk, Frasor, Speier, League

we get 1450 IP (not too far off) and total runs conceded of 801.

80-82 pythagorean with exponent of 1.82, if windows calculators does not lie to me.

80 - 82 in this division, with that budget? Someone give those boys a cigar for a job well done.

Yeah, I guess it isn't so bad if it turns out 80-82. With some interesting talent on the way for 06.

I guess the BP guy will simulate 10000 seasons again, soon, and that will make a better prediction because it takes the strength of yanks and sox into account.

Agreed. Now all we have to do is factor in the Mythical Griffin Number of 44.6%.

Yeah, I guess it isn't so bad if it turns out 80-82.

Are you serious?? How can you be satisfied with that?

Easy. We will score 44.6% as many runs as the yanks. Thankfully they will allow 144.6% as many, when their starting rotation collapses.

Thinking of collapses, the problem for the Jays is if/when Koskie gets hurt, and one of the other run producers goes down. Our predicted runs is sure to drop somewhat. The only way to make up for it is either for the stand-in to play well above expectations to match the person they are standing in for, or for the rest of the team to outperform their projections on average.

789 would give us a league median, on par with the 04 Cubs

Jobu, while everyone has you slaving over your spreadsheet anyway, you should probably not compare your forecasted Blue Jay run total to those of NL teams, just AL teams. Remember, with pitchers batting in the NL, all their run totals are compressed.

Replace the Blue Jays DH with a pitcher and you're not looking at the '04 Cubs any more.

ok, assuming there IS a plan to the Koch signing and looking for what it could be......

I'm thinking we signed Koch now, because he's not REAL expensive, and we see some untapped potential... so, since a blown save or 3 is no big deal in 2005 anyway, this is a cheap way to find out what he's got.....

maybe

Dont worry Andrew, ZiPS expects alot of Crozier, so if/when Koskie goes down, Hinske slides back to third, Crozier plays first and as long as he can play at 44.6446446% of Koskie's level...everything should be allllllllllllllright.

Mr. Acker reality bites , the Jays are a low budget team in the most difficult division in baseball, getting anywhere near .500 in 2005 would be a solid result.

Good point Chuck. 789 runs created would put us around the Twins or A's. Ohhh... to be in the AL Central.

Would the ZIP's calculation take into account the new playing surface that is (supposedly) going into Skydome? Couldn't the pitchers numbers get better, since the infield (Koskie, Adams/McDonald, Hudson, Hinske) projects to be significantly better defensively than 2004?

Thinking of collapses, the problem for the Jays is if/when Koskie gets hurt, and one of the other run producers goes down.

According to the optimistic-seeming ZIPs, Koskie's 370/465 could be replaced by Crozier's 352/461 with Hinske just moving back across the diamond.

I wish Crozier truly were 800 OPS worthy, but I'd prefer evidence first.

Chuck, you left out the MGN ;)

Crozier plays first and as long as he can play at 44.6446446% of Koskie's level.

Does Bill Gates get a little royalty payment for each decimal place that Excel spits out?

http://www.battersbox.ca/archives/00002736.shtml#2736139
I don't need Excel when I have the Prophet Griffin to read in each days newspaper.

Those of you lost by the 44.6 references might do well to check out yesterday's thread. COMN.

Using different pitchers from above:

Halladay
Batista
Lilly
Bush
Towers
Ligtenberg
Chulk
Frasor
Speier
League
Downs (innings halved to reflect relief role)

= 1445 innings, 864 runs against, 789 runs for, and a record of:

74 wins, 88 losses.

Not really accurate, though, because Koch wasn't involved, neither was Chacin, and League's a starter in these predictions. Still, it's fun to play around with.

getting anywhere near .500 in 2005 would be a solid result.

Wrong. This is sports. Being competitive is a solid result, not being .500. I mean, if the Jays split a 4 game series, should we be happy?

Well, last year some knucklehead who shall remain nameless (hint: his intials are JG, and it's not that Jonny German fellow) predicted the Jays would win 90 games. This year, I'm keeping my big futurific mouth shut when it comes to Toronto.

Having said that, assuming the Jays are done, or add some ancillary players like another Koch or Huckaby, one would have to think that .500 would be the goal for this season. As for early 2006 hope ... I dunno. Given the strength of the Yankees, Red Sox, the improving Orioles, etc. etc. etc., is it going to be that much different?

Back to Koch, because I just can't leave it alone. This quote comes from the updated item on the Jays site:

"I want to give the fans of Toronto what they were used to when I was there before."

I don't think I have to articulate the horrors this brings to mind.

From the TSN article:

''That's the main deal, no role, no nothing,'' said Koch. ''Billy is on the Blue Jays, Billy is happy to be on the Blue Jays and if he can throw the ball the way he can, things will be all right.''

Braden's not so convinced.

Hey Gitz: Exactly how have the Orioles improved? I suppose if you factor in the 50 year old phenom catcher Java and the shortstop that enjoys talking to himself whilst walking to the batters box, then ya. And to Prisoner of Hamilton: What's worse, enduring Koch or enduring Batista throw 38 straight balls? Hmm, tough one.

Did the Blue Jays get Hillenbrand or is it just a rumour? If he is indeed a Blue Jay then can someone provide a source. Thanks

Jim I'd love to put on my rose colored glasses and pretend the Jays will get 100 wins and win the World Series...given present circumstance that just ain't happening.

Instead the goal should be long term, every move this team makes should be predicated on having a solid team which is wild-card or divisional competetive year in, year out. I'd rather see Gabe Gross get 500 at bats to see what he can do, rather than give those same at bats to Shea Hillenbrand who I do not believe is a championship calibre player.

Mind you I don't have to deal with Richard Griffin each day and nor do I have to deal with irrational fans who don't get the whole picture, so I don't blame Riccardi if we see some short term "keep the natives happy" type decisions made this year.

''That's the main deal, no role, no nothing,'' said Koch. ''Billy is on the Blue Jays, Billy is happy to be on the Blue Jays and if he can throw the ball the way he can, things will be all right.''

So does Billy's new mental training require him to talk about himself in the 3rd person? :)

Billy's gonna strike you out!

Dave Stieb in 1998. Tony Fernandez in 2001. Greg Myers in 2003. Pat Hentgen in 2004. Billy Koch, Pete Walker and Ken Huckaby in 2005.

Am I missing anyone?

Who's next on the Blue Jays' end-your-career-where-you-started-carousel? (Okay, okay, no hate mail, I know Walker started in NY.)

I thought 1999 would be Pat Borders' year to qualify. Who knew he'd still be playing in 2005?

I thin Alfredo came back, but maybe only as a coach..
and Tony came back twice...

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20050110&content_id=929422&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp
High first round pick, Phillip Humber signed with the Mets today. COMN. Contract details are unknown, and I didn't pry.

Did the Blue Jays get Hillenbrand or is it just a rumour? If he is indeed a Blue Jay then can someone provide a source. Thanks

Shawn Green still has to take a physical with the Diamondbacks, so nothing would happen until then.

If a trade goes through I'm sure there'll be a post devoted to it.

I think billy would be much more effective if he hit a few more people, and used the inside half of the plate more effectively. Break a few more bats, and a couple of ribs every once and awhile, and people wont be having as good a look at the ball as they have been.

What's worse, enduring Koch or enduring Batista throw 38 straight balls?

BB/9 IP
Koch 4.22 lifetime, 6.61 in 2004
Batista 3.92 lifetime, 4.35 in 2004

"Billy is on the Blue Jays, Billy is happy to be on the Blue Jays and if he can throw the ball the way he can, things will be all right."

Chuck thinks Billy is channeling Jimmy from Seinfield. Chuck gets creeped out by this 3rd person nonsense.

I think billy would be much more effective if he hit a few more people, and used the inside half of the plate more effectively. Break a few more bats, and a couple of ribs every once and awhile, and people wont be having as good a look at the ball as they have been.

Hit the mascot, meat.

Who's next on the Blue Jays' end-your-career-where-you-started-carousel?

Hinske. 2005. You gotta see these guys play.

So with the two signings today I guess this brings the 40 man roster to full strength. So any further additions will also mean subtraction.

There should still be a couple million in budget left too.

Does anyone have an updated reasonable budget ledger?

I want to see a Jay wear 44.6 as a number, in honour of myth, aura, and mystique.

Just looking at the 40 man roster page at mlb.com. They have already included Koch's name but not those of Huckaby and Walker. By my count the roster currently stands at 39. Room for Hillenbrand?

Good question Lefty, I have the team roughly at about $43.5 million after the Koch and Zaun signings. Add in a potential 2.5 million for Hillenbrand (I've read the DBacks might send some cash to the Jays to cover arbitration above this number)and your at 46 million.

This is a basic estimate only. All positions filled and your still 6-7 million under budget. What should we do with the excess cash gentlemen?

Sit on it. If there's a deal to be made at some point where you take on a contract along with a solid prospect by a team trying to make a move in late July, that's a better investment than making moves for the sake of making moves. If worst comes to worst, and you honestly can't find a useful place to invest it player-wise, I'd just give it back to Ted Rogers. He's lost enough money on this ball club.

All positions filled and your still 6-7 million under budget. What should we do with the excess cash gentlemen?

Lower my cable bill.

What should we do with the excess cash gentlemen?

Well, I know this nice restaurant where first thing the sommelier arrives and confirms the wine budget for the evening. We could take off a grand or two that way...

I'd just give it back to Ted Rogers. He's lost enough money on this ball club.

Lower my cable bill.

Out of these two statements put me in Chuck's camp. And while he's at it he could lower my mobile phone bill. If he could do that I'd bleed Rogers blue for him. Wait a sec, he is bleeding me already. Grrr.

If Rogers owns this team to make money then he should just get out of baseball and buy Nortel where he can play around with business.

If Rogers owns this team to make money then he should just get out of baseball and buy Nortel where he can play around with business.

Unfortnately Lefty, if you'd like to have a baseball team in Toronto, you're likely to be plagued with owners who own the team to make money. At least this isn't the Leafs, who are making money hand over fist, and are cheerfully engaged in a lockout to reduce what the players can earn while refusing to agree to any substantial revenue sharing.

This is a basic estimate only. All positions filled and your still 6-7 million under budget. What should we do with the excess cash gentlemen?

I agree, I have 43.5, and that includes a few 100G's here and there for minor league call-ups etc....

I've been figuring a $3Mil RP and a $6Mil DH/OF/1B
but I'm not seeing too many bats I'd spend $6Mil on...

Operator error... Koch's 900,000 makes 44.4 on my list..

Unfortnately Lefty, if you'd like to have a baseball team in Toronto, you're likely to be plagued with owners who own the team to make money. At least this isn't the Leafs, who are making money hand over fist, and are cheerfully engaged in a lockout to reduce what the players can earn while refusing to agree to any substantial revenue sharing.

why doesn't Ken Thompson by the jays? he rich enough...

Ya I got 43.25, I think it would be a good time to give Orlando a contract extension. If he has a good start at the plate he could easily be an all-star at 2b. If he gets the All-Star status and a gold glove at the end of the season JP would probably have to pay a lot more than he would if he signed him long term right now.

Any thoughts?

Braby 21,

re: Hudson. A big part of me says give him the extension and buy out a year of free agency. But the other part of me wonders where Aaron Hill is going to play in the next couple of years, especially if Koskie kicks in that fourth year option. An Adams/Hill platoon or having Hill the super-utility infielder would work, but it seems like a waste of obvious talent.

I don't know what it is: Koch gave me heart attack after heart attack and I was glad to see him shipped out to Oakland...but I'm strangely happy to see him back in Toronto. Updating my roster spreadsheet, I have the same bizarre feeling adding Koch to the bullpen that I had when I typed "1B Hinske."

"Velocity doesn't really mean anything," [Koch] said. "It's all about location."

Is this the same Billy Koch who threw 100 mph with no regard for where the ball was going? Next thing you know, Brandon League will show up in Dunedin with a knuckleball.

Last Year Beltran hit 269 last year
Is he truly worth what the Mets are giving him

Huckaby and Walker are minor-league deals, right? So they don't take up space on the 40-man roster. If Koch's deal is a major-league deal, he does, though.

Unfortnately Lefty, if you'd like to have a baseball team in Toronto, you're likely to be plagued with owners who own the team to make money. At least this isn't the Leafs, who are making money hand over fist, and are cheerfully engaged in a lockout to reduce what the players can earn while refusing to agree to any substantial revenue sharing.

Tyler, I would agree with this notion if a sports franchise was simply a corporation. A corporation must be guided by the bottom line. It is there to serve the financial interest of its shareholders.

But a sports franchise is considered by many to be part of the fabric of the community. In the case of the Blue Jays that means the GTA but it also is representitve of the Canadian baseball community. This is why many cities, states or provinces build grand stadia.

In the UK every soccer team has a supporters club. These clubs serve to provide their individual soccer communites with a voice within the club. Within the boardroom itself. There have been many cases where supporters clubs have organized many actions that they deem to be in the interest of their community. These have included rulings from courts to uphold the rights of fans. And fans have been successful.

I fear building justification for a sound business model rather than building a competitive club will be more dangerous to the long term viability of this ball team.

Last Year Beltran hit 269 last year
Is he truly worth what the Mets are giving him

Whether Beltran is worth $17M for one year, let alone each year for the next six, is obviously a matter of debate. But bear this in mind:
* Beltran has posted a 900+ OPS in each of the last 3 seasons
* he is a gold glove caliber center fielder
* he is the highest percentage base stealer in baseball history

So you've got a guy who hits like a corner outfielder yet plays one of the key defensive positions and plays it extremely well. Further, he adds to his value via SB's, ordinarily fairly neglible in value except when you succeed at an 89% clip.

His detractors have fallen in the trap of comparing his offensive ability to weak-fielding corner outfielders, basically ignoring the end of the defensive spectrum that he occupies. It is true that his 2004 batting average was not spectacular and it is also true that he has played in parks favourable to hitters. Still, many are suggesting his big pay day is a result of an incredible 2004 post-season, ignoring what an all-round terrific talent he is.

I believe he will be worth the money through ages 28-30. After that he'll probably feel like an extravagance.

The Koch news got me so riled up I had to go looking for something to feel good about. I found this BP chat session with Grady Fuson (then with Texas), who Bob E. claims may be coming to the Jays.

Fuson sounds like he's bright and has a good sense of humour. Says some interesting things about tandem pitching in the minors and has lots to say about Rangers prospects I know nothing about. But if this is a fair example of his candor and smarts I'd like to see him here.

Might be the most important signing of the off season, the way it's going.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=63
And here's the link I meant to include. COMN

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1596
Says some interesting things about tandem pitching in the minors

I forgot that the Rangers did that. I've been hoping the Jays would try the tandem starters for a couple of years now. Perhaps Fuson would push the Jays in that direction if he was hired.

The Jays toyed with it a couple years back, but it didn't last too long (IIRC Lidle resisted).

Rany J had a series at Baseball Prospectus a couple years back that advocated a 4 man rotation. COMN for the beginning of the series.

As a few people in these parts have pointed out before, if you're going to do things the same way as teams with more significant resources it'll be tough to beat them (one of the Mikes in the Year in Review IIRC). But if you can do things differently, in a way to give you an edge, that's one way to make up ground on the competition.

Some of the advantages of a 4 man rotation:

1. You'd only need 4 starters instead of 5
2. You'd only need to pay 4 starters instead of 5 (which seems even more important these days of paying #3 starters $7MM)
3. You'd gain roster flexibility, opening up another bench spot.

The signing of Beltran creates major buzz in the team. I've already talked to several Met fans and they're thrilled that Beltran will be in a Mets uni. Major buzz usually equals more tickets sold. I also believe the Mets are lauching their own station next year.

From a Mets fans perspective, they don't care if Beltran is overpaid, all they care about is that Beltran will be playing for the good guys and improving the teams chances of winning.

I wonder why a team like the A's, who only had four good starters last year, never did that....

Are you serious, Harry? The A's worst starter was Mark Redman, who ate 191 innings with a league average ERA. I'd be surprised if you cold name me 3 teams with a better 5th starter than that.

An article by T.R. Sullivan of the Star-Telegram said Delgado is looking for a contract worth 15-17 mil per year. I wonder if a team like the Tigers who have failed in obtaining many of the FA's they had interest in (Koskie, Glaus, Drew, Lowe, etc...)would bite and offer something close to those numbers to get Delgado.

Count me as one who is happy to see the return of Billy. He always entertained (me!) when he pitched. It wasn't so great when he couldn't find the strike zone, but boy, when he did, the ball went for miiiiles.

I'm being unfair to poor ole Billy. I do enjoy watching him pitch, and when he first reached the big leagues his fastball actually did seem to have movement.

First-time poster here. Like many of you, I shared the same apprehension about Koch when he played in Toronto before.

Surprisingly, though, he converted 100/117 save opportunities for the Jays. That is a rate of 85.5%, which is the best of any pitcher who had at least 20 career saves for Toronto.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primer/discussion/25521/
I took a look at the Beltran deal over at primer and with reasonable assumptions I think it is pretty clear that it is a good enough deal over the first 4 years. A bad deal over the next 2. And the last year should be painful.

Fozzy, re: Hudson, the fact that Aaron Hill is waiting in the wings shouldn't effect the signing of him. It isn't like you'd give him a no trade contract. If it turns out to be a good signing then in the future you choose between Hill as super utility, trade Hill, or trade Hudson.

As for ZiPS with the Jays here is what I get:

Assume every Jay breaks into the following catagories:

1. Solid starters (weight = 1)
2. Regular part of plattonish starters (weight = .7)
3. Commonly used bench player (weight = .35)
4. Back of the bench player (weight = .1)
5. Not on the Jays/not in the majors (weight = 0)

In 1 I put: Adams, Hinske, Hudson, Catalanotto, Rios, Wells, and Koskie.

In 2 I put: Crozier (as dh/1b since I'm not assuming Hillenbrand) and Zaun.

In 3 I put: Quiroz, Menechino, Gross, Johnson, and Meyers.

In 4 I put: Hattig, Griffin, and Hill.

Combine the weights by the ZiPS lines and you get what the Jays are supposed to hit. But then you see that we have only 3622 for AB-H+CS. I figure that this should equal about 4252.5 = (26.25 * 162 - figuring ROE and extra innings extra outs is about equal to double and triple play outs). Therefore everything needs to be scaled up by 1.17. This produces a team line of 273/341/429/776 which is good for 825 R according to ZiPS for R and worth 846 if you do OBP * TB. If you don't do the rescaling you get ZiPS R of 702 and OBP* TB of 721.

So doing this it looks like the Jays should score between 700 (conservative) and 850 runs (optimistic). They should be comfortably over 800 *if* those ZiPS estimates are all accurate and my playing time estimates are about right. And looking at the ZiPS estimates I'd take them, as they seem a little optimistic to me (Quiroz, Zaun, Crozier, Hinske, Gross, and Rios were all higher than I had expected and no one was way lower than expected). But that's without me rechecking the numbers myself.

Doing the same thing for pitching (although I wasn't as good at grouping the pitchers - I had Batista, Bush, Fraiser, Halladay, Ligthenberg, Lilly, and Spier all be 1's and nearly everyone else be .35's) I get the Jays to have a staff ERA of 4.74. At first I have them pitching 1776 innings, but that has to be scaled down to the 1417.5 innings or so we'd expect. On scaling down we see the Jays are expected to give up 818 runs according to ZiPS.

So if we assume 825 from the hitting and 818 from the pitching that makes the Jays on track for 82-80. Make it the optimistic 846 and you see 83-79. Realistically an 80-85 range doesn't seem off to me given that some of last year was due to the year everything went wrong. Of course give us key injuries to Wells and Halladay and Koskie and slow development of prospects and it could be ugly like 2004. But that is unlikely.

Thrillhouse

Who???

Thrillhouse is Russ Adams. Trying to explain the nickname is like trying to play catch with an electron.

For what it's worth, I took Ron Shandler's current 2005 projections for the Jays' hitters - the runs created (with some minor tweaking for playing time) come to just short of 800.