Looks like Steve Kline is set to sign with the O's. I can't find a source right now but i believe it was in the Star this morning. Really is too bad that JP couldn't get a guy like this locked up, he really wouldve been a solid addition to the pen.

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1103583009875&call_pageid=968867503640&col=970081593064&DPL=IvsNDS%2f7ChAX&tacodalogin=yes
Rob Faulds is no longer the Jays play-by-play man on Sportsnet. COMN

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1103583009875&call_pageid=969907739730&col=970081600908&DPL=IvsNDS%2f7ChAX&tacodalogin=yes
Courtesy of DeMarco, from the tail end of the old roundup: Faulds will not be broadcasting the Jays games next season on Sportsnet. COMN.

Beat me to it.

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2004/12/21/792448.html
seems the jays have increased interest in trading for shea hillenbrand to play either DH or first base (if hinkse were to be traded). Not a bad option here but his salary is definitly going to increase in arbitration which might price him out of his affordability range. COMN for details.

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MoneyMatters/2004/12/20/791535-ap.html
Here's the link to the Kline story in case anyone needed it.

While Faulds improved last year it was obvious to any baseball fan that he just doesn't know the game.

I love the trade that the Sox made with the Padres. While it hurts to lose Pedro, I think that team is gonna be a beast again.

The Globe and Mail article on Faulds (I'm looking at the print edition, so no link) said Rod Black had not been contacted by Sportsnet about the job. I guess that's encouraging.

I think I'd like the Jays to take a fresh approach at their announce team next year. I'm sure both Rod Black and Faulds have their strengths, but baseball just doesn't seem to be it in my opinion.

Sam Cosentino is far and away the best choice, if they're looking for a local. Cosentino and Darrin Fletcher paried to make a great team on some of the Expos games this year. I'd LOVE to see them as the new crew. They'd definitely inject some youth into the broadcasts, and would be a significant upgrade over Faulds/Cerutti in my mind.

Grand Funk out.

Oh, and if Rod Black comes back, I'll puke.
He should stick with what he knows...figure skating.

Am I only one who would be underwhelmed by the acquisition of Shea Hillenbrand? He has limited power and has clearly demonstrated an unwillingness to take a walk. I realize he will hit close to .300, but he's never walked more than 25 times in a year. His career OPS+ is 98, which to put in perspective, is lower than that of Jose Cruz Jr. (103).

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2004/12/21/792449.html
Speier's signing, and Zaun rejects arbitration.

Although the articles don't completely rule Shulman out, there's no chance he'd come back. Sportsnet tried to get him when they picked up the full rights to the Jays after the 2001 season, but the offer from ESPN gave him a lot of money and allowed him to stay home more. I doubt he would be interested in a heavier workload for less money if Sportsnet came calling again.

The broadcast team should be just like the manager for the Jays--it only goal to implement management's plan. I want an educated team who understands how the Jays are trying to compete against the Yankees. Wouldn't it be nice to have the first 'moneyball' announcers in the league? Sam Cosentino is not the guy that's needed. I cringed whenever he attempted to describe the Moneyball philosophy on the Score.

My choice? Coach. Possibly with Catallonotto doing the colour commentary when he's not in the lineup.

I'm relocating my "hijack" here for visibility!

**FANTASY BALL HIJACK**

I've been trying to keep an eye on the health of Joel Pinero and Eddie Guardado

Anyone have a good resource for seeing how they are doing??

How bout Buck Martinez? :)

How bout Buck Martinez?

After Buck's debacle as a manager, I don't think he could show face in Toronto again... just an opinion...

Sportsnet just said that the Jays hope to sign Billy Koch by the end of the week. No salary was mentioned.

Daryn:

Rotoworld and Roto Times are good sources for fantasy news. Another way is to go to Google News and enter Joel Pineiro, or Joel Pineiro injury, or Joel Pineiro elbow, or something like that.

Blogs can be useful, too. USS Mariner is a fine example.

Rod Black isn't being considered since he now works for TSN and not Sportsnet.

Buck Martinez has stated that he is not interested in working on Jays telecasts under the current Jays administration.

Both notes paraphrased from today's Star.

Oh, and Consentino is the favorite for the job (for now) but Rogers will do a candidate search.

I humbly propose that Jobu and myself take over the telecast, as Two Dumb Guys Who Like Baseball.

I really don't want to see Hillenbrand on the Jays, for the reason mentioned by Kieran. There has to be a way for JP to acquire a better 1B/DH than this, even if it means waiting a few months or longer.

The best man for the Jays announcer job is Mike Wilner. Much like Christian, I think the Jays need someone who is adept at communicating managements plan to the fan base. Too much damage is being done in this market to the casual baseball fan by the likes of Torstar and the Sun.

Now the switch to T.V. from radio is not always easy, but I've seen Wilner doing the odd bit on Sportsnet and he looks comfortable. He also has a young family so being constantly on the road may be difficult. Also all the SportsNet talking heads(and TSN for that matter) are contract employees, so job secuirity may be an issue. Still for me he's the best choice.

I'd definitely love to see Wilner broadcasting!

Check out the Red Sox stealing all Toronto's journeymen... yesterday they signed up Simon Pond, Scott Cassidy, Talley Haines, and Jason Kershner to minor league contracts.

Consider this the requisite regretful post concerning Dan Schulman's unavailability.

I think it's essential to have announcers who understand the organization's situation -- its team-building approach, its coaching philosophies, its position vis-a-vis competitors that spend more on payroll, etc. I see no reason to dumb down (or sugarcoat) explanations of the club's position and strategy in this marketplace.

Nor do I think they should shy away from using pretty fundamental analytical stats like slugging percentage and K/IP and K/BB ratios. They've made an excellent start by incorporating OBP and WHIP into the on-screen stats; they can go farther. I'm not asking for VORP here, but it would be immensely gratifying if Sportsnet became the first broadcaster to provide a hitter's BA/OBP/SLG line when he comes to the plate.

I also think that either the new announcers, or a designated "reporter," should be fully briefed on and provide updates to viewers concerning the minor leagues (and no, I'm not campaigning for the position). If we can do a daily minor-league update and analysis on an entirely volunteer basis here, the ballclub's own broadcasting team should be able to do at least as well.

I humbly propose that Jobu and myself take over the telecast, as Two Dumb Guys Who Like Baseball.

How about this -- NFH as the Jays' version of Al Michaels, me as their Dan Fouts, and Jobu as their wacky Dennis Miller? Hey, if it worked for Monday Night Football...

[/crickets]

I'm disappointed (but not surprised) to see Jason Kershner go.

From Rotoworld:

The Mets are close to signing infielder Chris Woodward.
They've only been chasing him for about seven weeks now. Woodward would likely be the team's top utility infielder if signed.

The Hillenbrand story must be JP's idea of creating a market for Hinske (i.e. if the Jays have interest in Hillenbrand then there must be a hot market for third basemen making around $4.0 million with career OPS+ of 98)

Career stats:

Hillenbrand - .288/.322/.448 - OPS+ 98
Hinske - .257/.336/.430 - OPS+ 98

In my view, if JP were able to unload Hinske's salary for a fringe prospect that would be a solid move. The idea that JP's chasing another similar player and offering prospects for the pleasure seems unlikely to me.

Add my name to the Wilner-backers. I know he doesn't like being away from home, but he's got to realize that this could be the big break he's been looking for. He is also already in the fold as THE FAN is owned by Rogers. I'd like to see Darrin Fletcher with him, as I think catchers make great analysts and it sounds like he did pretty well with THE SCORE. Also, you can never go back (Dan and Buck), as smooth sounding as it would be. We need the Moneyball/Baseball Economics 101/State of the Organization angle from Wilner and it's time to break in a new catcher as an analyst (Buck was pretty raw when he started).

How about Wilner for play by play and Fordin as the colour guy? From what Kent has told us all about Fordin, it could work. :)

If nothing else, that would be screamingly funny.

Hillenbrand?

Koch?

Alou?

Really?

Has anyone seen J.P. Ricciardi recently? Can anybody confirm that he hasn't been replaced by some kind of replicant?

Hey guys,

I might be ignorant on this, or I might have missed a previous thread, but why hasn't JP eagerly pursued Odalis Perez? I don't think he's commanding the same type of money that Clement was, and he's 2-3 years younger. He's also put up some decent numbers the past several years with the Dodgers. A starting 5 of Halladay, Lilly, Perez, Bush and Towers/Chacin, but if they were also able to tender a contract to Wade Miller, that would be a solid, young staff. What does everyone think?

If Hillenbrand is starting DH, and Hinske is starting 1B, this could potentially rival 1997 as one of the worst offenses in club history. As much as I don't mind Delgado gone, it's remarkable just how his presence alone made the offense at least decent.

My choice? Coach.

Six innings as a guest on a Double-A radio broadcast and a few thousand horse race calls notwithstanding, Cristian, there are much better candidates.

adept at communicating managements plan to the fan base

I want my announcers adept at communicating baseball to the fan base, a Shulman strength. If the play-by-play man can't tell the difference between a slider and a changeup or understand the nuances of what's going on, he doesn't give the analyst much to work with.

Jerry Howarth and Mike Wilner are both delightful company, in addition to being extremely well prepared and talented broadcasters. But Jerry is a radio icon, so I agree -- Mike Wilner is the best choice for Sportsnet. I hope they audition him with Fletcher, Mulliniks, Candiotti and any other candidates to see where the best chemistry develops.

the new announcers, or a designated "reporter,"

OK, there's a TV job I could do. Unfortunately, middle-aged round guys, even if they are mildly amusing and know their stuff, often lose out on those gigs to someone prettier.

that would be screamingly funny

Maybe not. Spencer's best lines are off-the-record, for good reason, and he'd have to behave himself on the air. Fordin doing a Wilner impression might be good...

Jamie Campbell or Peter Loubardias wouldn't be bad to replace Faulds. As for a colourman, Rance Mullinks isn't bad, but Darrin Fletcher is very articulate, and would make a solid colour-guy.

There's hundreds of great TV guys stuck in the minors right now. I hope the Jays give consideration to some of them and don't just ignore them because they don't have name recognition.

It's like hiring a manager. I'd rather take a guy with a great deal of minor league experience then hire a guy with no experience whatsoever just because but well known from his playing days.

Just in case the right people are reading this, I would be happy to become the new Jays commontator.

If not me, here are some of my other thoughts:
- I'd LOVE to see Dan Shulman back, but this is very unlikely.
- Anyone have any feedback on Rance Mullinicks performance for the score? He would be an interesting choice.
- Did not like Rod Black at all
- Didn't like Brian Williams either.
- Buck Martinez won't come back.
- Wilner would be a good option.
- Can't really think of anyone els in the Canadian market that has a passion for baseball and a good delivery?

Rob's choice? Mike Murphy. Anyone who listened to the Fisher Cats this year knows what I'm talking about.

While Faulds improved last year it was obvious to any baseball fan that he just doesn't know the game.

I used to think so.

Then I heard Paul Romanuk calling a basketball game and my whole definition of 'knowledge' changed.

I just hope Sportsnet doesn't make finding a Canadian combo the priority, like The Fan did for the Raptors (admittedly, cost was probably as large a factor). Get the best guys for the job... if they happen to be Canucks, that's just gravy.

I've always been partial to Elliot Friedman to broadcast; he's smart, quick-witted, got a powerful voice, already does work with the Fan, and needs a fallback since hockey is on hiatus.

Both him and Wiener Milk would be ideal candidates in my books, and I was also quite impressed with Darrin Fletcher on the Score.

I'm completely taken off guard by Faulds not calling games, but I wonder how much of it was the network's descision and how much was him not wanting to come back with someone else next year.

Oh, and it was nice to see the Star take subtle jabs at a rival. /sarcasm

Oh, and no Rod Black, Pat Tabler, Tom Candiotti, or Joe Carter please!

There's hundreds of great TV guys stuck in the minors right now. I hope the Jays give consideration to some of them and don't just ignore them because they don't have name recognition.

I was about to post something similar. I would certainly support Mike Wilner getting the job, but I have to qualify that endorsement by saying I don't really know who else is available. There are undoubtedly a number of equally qualified broadcasters out there just waiting for an opportunity to present itself.

On the analyst side, TSN was courting Jim Palmer after Buck Martinez left to become the team's manager. TSN could only offer a one-year deal since they were about to lose the broadcast rights to Sportsnet, and Palmer said that was the primary reason why he turned them down. As I recall, Palmer's girlfriend at the time was from Toronto, which made joining the Blue Jays broadcast team an appealing option. I have no idea if they're still together or if Palmer would be interested in the job again.

Mike Murphy would be an interesting and unconventional choice. He'd come with 3 immediate plusses: he's a fine communicator (bonus: a good sense of humour), he's got a fair understanding of the Jay minor league system, and he's got an interest in expanding his knowledge.

The Mets are close to signing infielder Chris Woodward. They've only been chasing him for about seven weeks now.

If only Woodward showed that kind of speed when he was with the Jays.....

Can't really think of anyone els in the Canadian market that has a passion for baseball and a good delivery?

I liked the job Jim Hughson did years ago, but I suppose he's about as likely to come back as Shulman, unfortunately.

I hope the Jays give consideration to some of them and don't just ignore them because they don't have name recognition

I guess the Rogers connection would give the Jays more input than in picking TSN's broadcaster, but isn't it still pretty much Sportsnet's call? (The article does mention the Jays apparently weren't happy with Faulds, but I doubt that's a recent development)

Faulds, Black and Williams were obviously "company men" that got the job, so maybe Wilner's Rogers/Sportsnet connections will help him enough.

I don't know how many remember Shulman's pre-TSN career, but as the host of the FAN's afternoon show, he was definitely a "gamble" at the time. (I remember hearing the announcement made on-air, and thinking that it was just an elaborate joke put together by Stellick et. al.). Wilner's current background appears to be similar, though more baseball-centric. I hope that he's at least a serious candidate...

I've always been partial to Elliot Friedman to broadcast

The Freege would be an interesting choice, but I never got the impression he knows that much (or cares that much) about baseball. My first criteria for a Faulds replacement would be someone who really loves the sport, as that sort of thing usually is reflected in the broadcasts.

IMO, someone like Brian Williams, who voted for Jacques Villeneuve over Larry Walker for the Lou Marsh Trophy should never have been broadcasting baseball on that basis alone.

If RSN is daring enough to elect an option other than guy-with-silky-smooth-broadcaster's-voice-but-nothing-to-say, then this could be the start of a long and successful career for Mike Wilner. If they brought Wilner on board, I could tolerate almost any analyst this side of Joe Carter.

Hey, Kelly Gruber needs a job...

Another name I should toss out here is Scott Ferguson. I thought he did a real good job when he handled the radio pre- and post-game shows for the Blue Jays. He was lousy the one time I heard him do play-by-play in 1996 (it was a one-shot deal filling in for Jerry Howarth), but he was obviously nervous due to it being his first time in that role. With time I think he could be a good play-by-play guy.

Jim Hughson would be fine with me. I thought he and Ken Singleton did a very good job covering the Expos in the late 80's and early 90's. He knows the game, has a good voice, and knows when to shut up. His big drawbacks are that he's from the West Coast and may not want to do all the travelling, and he's still primarily a hockey guy (not sure about conflicts if the NHL ever resumes).

I guess the Rogers connection would give the Jays more input than in picking TSN's broadcaster, but isn't it still pretty much Sportsnet's call? (The article does mention the Jays apparently weren't happy with Faulds, but I doubt that's a recent development)

I wrote Paul Godfrey about the broadcasting situation a couple of years ago. This was part of his reply:

"Although we do have input into the process, the final decision does rest with the networks, not the club."

From the boss (girlfriend): "Warren Sawkiw must be detained indefinitely or terminated with extreme sarcasm before auditions even begin!" I must second that as he would cost Sportsnet a lot of dough for broken lenses with the glare off that Cheshire Cat-like grin, and he would annoy the viewers to no end with endless sentences that would cause him to fail primary school english and grammar courses. I believe the end result would be a mass resort to the mute button, delay be damned! In fact I must apologize for even bringing up his name. Ooh, I feel a rash coming on just thinking about the calamity.

must second that as he would cost Sportsnet a lot of dough for broken lenses with the glare off that Cheshire Cat-like grin

In all fairness, actionjackson, the camera is barely, if at all, ever on the guys in the booth, save for about 50 seconds at the beginning and the end of the show. Compared to how much he's on now in the studio, his 'on-screen' time would actually decrease if moved into the booth.

But nice job on the imagery of the cheshire cat-like grin; you got it pegged to the T.

Then I heard Paul Romanuk calling a basketball game and my whole definition of 'knowledge' changed.

That was the single worst commentating I had ever heard, and I like Romanuk, I thought he was really good whenever he was a guest on a radio morning show. It was like Romanuk had never watched a baseball game in his life.

As for Elliot Friedman, it's pretty clear from his comments as a guest of the FAN that baseball isn't his favorite sport.

Hmmmm, if they decide to go 'local' I'd like Wilner. If not, they better get someone with experience and preferably with some 'moneyball' awareness/understanding. As for colour guys, I wouldn't mind Fletcher, not so hot on Gruber or Mullinix...

Bottom line, anything but Rod Black and Joe Carter ;).

I'm not so excited about Hillenbrand. I really hope we can do better than that, especially if we have to give up players in trade.

For what it's worth, basketball is Shulman's favourite sport but that doesn't preclude him from knowing baseball and sounding good announcing it. Being knowlegeable is extremely important because you can't fool the real fan.

Fozzy: I'm aware he wouldn't be on camera much, just had to find a way to work in Cheshire Cat-like grin ;)

If Shulman's favourite sport in basketball, perhaps The Fan and Sportsnet could work something out to have him do Raptors' radio and Jays' television. That would work well on two fronts: fans would have an excellent (and local) play-by-play announcer for the Jays and we wouldn't have to put up with Romanuk on the radio. I'm not a big basketball fan but I'd listen to Swirsky on The Fan because he made broadcasts entertaining and informative. Romanuk and Jones aren't of the same class.

Would like to cast my vote for Statler and Waldorf of the muppet fame.

I would be thrilled if Wilner got the gig. He's enthusiastic, a baseball fan first and most of all, extremely knowledgeable about what the Jays are trying to accomplish.

I vote 'no' for Rance (a little too docile from what I've heard on Score) and a HUGE 'no' for Sawkiw. You might as well have an automated cliche generator...

I've actually grown to like Pat Tabler as a colour guy. I like that he's very upfront with his knowledge of baseball. He wasn't afraid to call a spade a spade during the Sammy Sosa corking incident.

NO to Hillenbrand! Not until you've explored what it will take to get Dan Johnson, Adrian Gonzalez, Casey Kotchman, or Graham Koonce first. Expert baseball market evaluators please help me out, who here could we get and for how much?

If Beane doesn't want to cough up Johnson or Koonce in a reasonable trade, what about Erubiel Durazo as a stopgap until Hattig or Chiaravalloti are ready?

Seriously, I think that Wilner deserves the opportunity, he did a fine job last year during an obviously stressful time for the Jays radio team (Cheek's illness). The only thing I wondered during the whole time is why Howarth would do the play-by-play for nine innings while Wilner was available?

Being from the states, I have not had the opportunity to hear Tabler on TSN, although I would often see him at the SkyDome Hotel during homestands. What is "da box's" opinion on Tabler's broadcasting abilities?

Would like to cast my vote for Statler and Waldorf of the muppet fame.

Waldorf: You old fool! You just slept through Kerry Ligtenberg's whole appearance!

Statler: Who's the fool? You watched it!

Waldorf: Believe it or not, Ligtenberg wasn't half bad!

Statler: Nope. He was all bad!

Waldorf: You know, I thought Ligtenberg was really doing a good job tonight. But then...

Statler: Then what?

Waldorf: Then he started pitching!

Both: DUH-huh-huh-huh-huh-huh!

http://www.fanboys.com
Just do what I do when I can't stand the sportscasters: hit mute and listen to Tom & Jerry be awesome on the radio.

Mike D's post just made my whole day :)

The Freege would be an interesting choice, but I never got the impression he knows that much (or cares that much) about baseball.

FWIW, he was at the last Expos' home game, but wasn't covering it. (The Sportsnet guys were joking with him about it after the game)

Jason

According to Rotoworld:

Gregg Zaun wants a guaranteed two-year contract, not the one-year deal with a vesting option that the Blue Jays are offering.

He's kidding right?

Zaun is starting to annoy me.

""it would be immensely gratifying if Sportsnet became the first broadcaster to provide a hitter's BA/OBP/SLG line when he comes to the plate.""

Amen friend. Amen.

It honestly doesn't seem like that big of a deal. It would make some people very happy, and the rest of the viewers would be completly indifferent.

Oh my gosh, he not ... negotiating is he? How annoying. ;-D

Look at it this way: Zaun is near the end of his career and has never had a big payday. He just had a career year and is looking to pad his retirement fund. I'd do the same thing.

I'd be sad if he left because someone else offered him a bigger contract, but at the same time I'd be happy for him.

I hope the Jays don't go too far with Zaun. If he gets a Hery Blanco type contract, I'll be a little upset.

He's kidding right?

Zaun's agent has undoubtedly seen who else has gotten multi-year deals:

Henry Blanco
Juan Casto
Ricky Ledee
Mike Redmond
Tony Womack

That would be Henry Blanco, of course. And I don't blame Zaun for trying to cash in on a decent year, I just hope the Jays don't give in.

"it would be immensely gratifying if Sportsnet became the first broadcaster to provide a hitter's BA/OBP/SLG line when he comes to the plate."

Amen friend. Amen

My only problem with this is that it doesn't give you any idea of how many plate appearances the player has.

Oh my gosh, he not ... negotiating is he? How annoying.

It's Greg Fricken Zuan!! He should just be happy that there is a team as bad as the Jays that is willing to play someone like him regularly.

""I've always been partial to Elliot Friedman to broadcast; he's smart, quick-witted, got a powerful voice, already does work with the Fan, and needs a fallback since hockey is on hiatus.""

I'm not a fan of his. At first I liked him on the HNIC broadcasts. But then he started doing PTS with the Bobcat. His humor is blander and dryer that plain toast and my grand-mother's martini respectivly. If he was hired for the Sportsnet casts, I would have to pull the old T.V. on mute/ Tom and Jerry routine.

Of course, hopefully I'll be at every home game, so perhaps it wont be too big of an issue.

""My only problem with this is that it doesn't give you any idea of how many plate appearances the player has.""

Well heck. Let's put plate appearances on there too!

Any other ideas apart form the obp/slg/ops and pa line??

I doff my hat to MikeD.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1950927
Jerry Crasnick of espn.com citing "baseball sources" (BBRRS=foggy crystal ball) indicates that Joe Randa has been signed by Cincinnatti and Kearns will remain in the outfield. COMN.

Just as long as Crasnick doesn't cite "tennis sources" for these kinds of items, I'm OK with it.

Or "our national racehorses."

http://www.geocities.com/deviant_weirdos
Has anyone heard Gruber in the booth? I am just a little bit curious to know how he comes across....

Ooo Zaun wants 2 years instead of just one... well who can blame him?

Yankees are signing Tony Womack to be thier starting second baseman. 2 years at 4 million.

... I got that from Rotoworld by the way.

They should hire Jason Lake to do the broadcasts. He has radio experience and his stint as a sports writer for covers.com shows he knows his stuff.

Besides, he is a good friend of mine and maybe he could score me some good tickets. :)

I don't blame Zaun for asking, I guess I'm just worried that he will get it. As nice as Zaun's season was last year, he wasn't a very good fielding catcher and hit .232 after the all-star break. I thought the contract (1 year plus and option that is extended based on PA's in 05) Zaun turned down was too much. I really hope the Jays let him go and sign Pierzynski.

My choice? Coach. Possibly with Catallonotto doing the colour commentary when he's not in the lineup.

As soon as I read the first message, I thought of Frank. Glad to know I'm not the only one.

The Star mentioned Kelly Gruber as a candidate. My only requirment: He wear that jacket with the elbow patches like he did during the trophy presentation in 93. That was sweet.

I humbly propose that Jobu and myself take over the telecast, as Two Dumb Guys Who Like Baseball

A Day in the Life....

*Pre-Game*
Joe: Hello! And welcome to another edition of Blue Jays Baseball, I'm Joe and with me as always is Aaron
Aaron: I lost a bet yesterday, hence the Batman costume
Joe: Speaking of Bat-Men the Yankees are in town today-

*Second Inning*
Aaron: Up comes *sigh* Jeter next inning. You know it's really pissing me off the way the Yankee's team next door always fauns over hi-
Joe: Shut up for a second. Ladies and Gentlemen, strolling up to the plate, the weight of the team on his broad shoulders, the paradigm of baseball virtue, the man who is the Zeus to our pathetic humanity, the man who single handedly built the rocket and went to the moon in the offseason, the iconic.... Number 37. We will now have an inning of silence in his honour.

*Fourth Inning*
Joe and Aaron: Bluejayscheerclub.com, Bluejayscheerclub.com, Bluejayscheerclub.com, Blueja-

*Sixth Inning*
(After 10 minutes of silence)
Aaron: AH HA!! YOU BLINKED!!! PAY UP!! I want the O-Dog sports clix.
Joe: Ah... DAMNIT

*Seventh Inning*
Joe: Welcome back the score is tied here in the Seven-
Aaron: TOOOOOOO-NNEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Joe: ..Inning and Tony Clark is looking to ti-
Aaron: TOOOOOOO-NEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Joe: JP is with us. JP I've been meaning to ask about that trad-
Aaron: TOOOOOOO-NEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

*Eighth Inning*
Aaron: A little high and ball four given to Sheffield. The ump has been pretty inconsis-
Joe: PUNCH HIM IN THE FACE!!!!

*Top of Nineth*
Joe and Aaron: WE LIKE BASEBALL (background drumming) WE LIKE BASEBALL (background drumming)

*Bottom of Nineth - Tie Game, Wells at plate, Bases Loaded*
Joe: It all comes down to THIS! A basehit right now could win the Blue Jays the wild card...oh the tension doesn't get any hig-
Aaron: FREE SUSHI IN THE PRESS ROOM!!
Joe: HOLY $#*&%!!

(an hour and 12 minutes of silence occasionaly interupted by the 20/20 sports update)

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2004/12/21/sox_trade_roberts_to_sd/
According to the Boston Globe, Epstein may be looking to sign Wade Miller. COMN for the story, scroll down to bottom of the page.

Does anyone know what the Jays are offering for Shea? i hope not to much

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primer/oracle_discussion/24838/
Yankees are signing Tony Womack to be thier starting second baseman. 2 years at 4 million.

It took that long to finalize? That's two weeks in development -- what could Tony Womack use as a bargaining chip?

I don't blame Zaun for asking, I guess I'm just worried that he will get it. As nice as Zaun's season was last year, he wasn't a very good fielding catcher and hit .232 after the all-star break. I thought the contract (1 year plus and option that is extended based on PA's in 05) Zaun turned down was too much. I really hope the Jays let him go and sign Pierzynski.

I also like the idea of sigining A.J.

(a) I doubt his attitude problems are nearly as bad as reported in the media.
(b) his numbers were really hurt by Pac Bell last year -- I think he could easily rebound to 300/350/450 in 2005, especially in a hitter friendly park like Sykdome

Maybe 3MM per season for a 2 years? He's also a natural platoon partner for Quiroz, who bats right. It would kind of leave Myers twisting in the wind, but c'est la vie.

Maybe Steinbrenner was looking under the couch to see what this year's budget will be?

He's also a natural platoon partner for Quiroz, who bats right. It would kind of leave Myers twisting in the wind, but c'est la vie.

Not to mention the Jays don't have a DH, so Myers could be slotted in there. A.J. could also DH when not not catching.

Can't hurt to have 3 catchers and all 3 being able to hit, catch and/or DH when needed.

It would kind of leave Myers twisting in the wind, but c'est la vie.

Greg Myers had his career year at age 37. He'll be 39 next season, has just missed a year due to injury, was not likely to repeat his 2003 as a 38-year old anyway, may now be hard pressed to even match his career 314/396 line...

Need I go on?

If there is an iota of Myers.v2003 left in the tank, drop him into the DH mix. Otherwise, don't hold your breath counting on much from him. I wish him well, don't get me wrong, but expectations must be realistic.

Not to mention the Jays don't have a DH, so Myers could be slotted in there.

I thought Cat was the DH. He certainly can't play LF every day, and "Rabe Grohnson" should be in left for Toronto next year anyway.

Cat isn't the DH, not right now anyways. Cat and Reed are going to platoon in left unless they get a solid LF'r.

Reed isn't an everyday player, he is a true 4th OF. If they sign Alou look for Alou to play Left, Reed to fill in when needed, and Cat to DH most games, possibly Frank DH'n against Leftys.

"Rabe Grohnson"

Ruh-roh, Rhaggy!

Count me in for Rabe Grohnson as left-fielder, but the organization may have different expectations about Cat's ability to play the outfield.

- While I enjoyed Jim Hughson doing Baseball games there's no chance he will come back. He loves his current gig which is doing play by play for the Canucks on Sportsnet. He says the job allows him to spend a lot more time with his family which is his number one priority.

- Hopefully Zaun doesn't get a 2 year deal. He had an okay season at best last year (even if it was his career year). Take away his one freakish month then look at his numbers. It's not a pretty sight.

- I have a hard time believing JP is going after Shea, unless JP's goal is to have the worst offensive club in the league.

Cat DHing against lefties would mean someone had not done their job. During the last 3 years, he's hit .203/.266/.297 against portsiders. Sure it's a small sample, but expecting him to do better than .250/.320/.380 is not realistic, and there are lots and lots of right-handed hitters who can do better than that on a platoon basis for next to nil cost.

unless JP's goal is to have the worst offensive club in the league.

I'm starting to wonder if this is his goal?

I really don't like the options that are left and the Jays are a long way from having a good offense. Hopefully JP can pull off a trade for a decent hitter that some team can no longer afford.

Cat DHing against lefties would mean someone had not done their job. During the last 3 years, he's hit .203/.266/.297 against portsiders. Sure it's a small sample, but expecting him to do better than .250/.320/.380 is not realistic, and there are lots and lots of right-handed hitters who can do better than that on a platoon basis for next to nil cost.

Like Franky M who I just said above will probably DH against lefty's if Cat is the DH.

I really don't understand where all this talk of "leagues worst offence" is coming from. I realize we still need a power bat, but guys...it's not that bad.

I wouldn't judge the lineup by how things look today, because there's a lot that will change so far. If it is left like this, it looks terrible.

From a big league perspective, so far we have:

ADDED
---
3B Koskie
IF McDonald
RP Gaudin

DELETED
---
CA Cash
1B Delgado
IF Woodward
IF Gomez
IF Berg

That's a pretty big drop in O if it ended up shaking out that way. Which is why I'm sure it won't.

I must have missed the connection between Alou and the Jays. When and where did the Alou rumours start?

To be fair Braby, you only said "Frank DHn' against Leftys" which leaves some confusion on whether you mean Menechino or Catalanotto. It's cleared up now, at least.

but guys...it's not that bad.

The Jays had one of the worst offenses in the AL last year, now they've lost Delgado and replaced him with Koskie. How are they not still one of the worst?

The Jays had one of the worst offenses in the AL last year, now they've lost Delgado and replaced him with Koskie. How are they not still one of the worst?

I think that alot of people are banking on the fact that Wells' numbers will improve dramatically, Eric Hinske will regain his form somewhat, and Rios will make big strides.

This is all possible, however if everyone puts up the same numbers the offence will get worse.

To be fair Braby, you only said "Frank DHn' against Leftys" which leaves some confusion on whether you mean Menechino or Catalanotto. It's cleared up now, at least.

My bad, I didn't want to spell Menichino wrong so I just put Frank. There's some dudes here that just go retarded if you spell a word wrong or use it wrong.

Hey. You spelled Menechino wrong!

While I do think Rios and Wells will be better, I don't expect much from Hinske. On the flip side, I don't think the Jays will get the same kind of production from Zaun and Menechino. Added to the loss of Delgado, I see the Jays offense weaker than last season, altough there defense is better.

I agree with Moffat though, I think this team still has a lot of changes yet to be made. Or at least I hope so.

The difficulty is that right now the Jays look below average at 7 of 9 positions offensively. There's a chance they'll wind up above average at 2B or SS, but there's also a chance that something happens to Vernon or Corey, and they'll be below average at 3B and CF.

There's no way this is the team they'll go with on opening day.

I just don't see any offensive players out there worth signing for the money available. The offense might not be worse.

Hinske2004 + Delgado might be close to Hinske2005 + Koskie with a better defense.
Adams should be better than Woodward and Gomez.
A healthy Cat would help.
Gross and Rios should be better.
Hopefully Wells is healthy all year.
Cash + Zaun won't be tough to match.

How 'bout we wait till the roster is complete and the budget is spent before worrying about how bad the lineup's going to be?

Well Demarco,

You can't forget about the injuries to Delgado, Wells, Cat, Myers, ect..

Now, I know we've lost Delgado, but there were times last year when Howie Clark was playing first, Dave Berg was playing second, and Bobby Eastella was catching. We only had Rios for about half the year, we had Woodward instead of Russ Adams, and we didn't have Koskie. The very fact that we we're missing that many regulars, regardless of their stature, wreaked havoc on the batting lineup.

Obviously some work needs to be done as Moffat has pointed out, but I think that even if the lineup we have now could stay healthy for the year, our offence would still be better than last year.

Is there anyone currently in the Jays starting lineup that isn't capable of hitting .270 next year?

Plus, we may not have a huge power threat, but I would think that Hudson, Hinske, Wells, Koskie, and Adams could very easily hit at least 15 homers a piece. And that's assuming we don't re-sign Zaun, or aquire another power bat.

I believe Rob Neyer wrote an article over a year ago about how a lot of fans have rose colored glasses before the season starts. Some fans believe almost everything will go their teams way when it fact that virtually never happens.

A rose colored Jays fan or a highly optimistic one would say:

- Wells will bounce back and put up similar numbers from 2 seasons ago
- Rios will come into camp with more muscle which will result in 20+ HR's and more doubles/triples, and he will draw more walks. Don't forget he's still very young so you can count on a increase in production
- Hinske will bounce back into his rookie season form
- Reed Johnson will improve because he won't be a starter anymore
- O-Dog will continue to add power and hit 15-20 HR's next season
- Franky Cat will stay healthy next season which will really help the offence
- Russ Adams will match or come close to his AAA numbers, which will be a huge step up from Gomez and Woody
- Koskie will stay healthy and have a career year playing with the Jays
- Dave Bush will continue to put up similar numbers to last season
- Lllly is in his prime and will improve upon last season
- Doc will stay healthy all year put up similar numbers to his CY Young season
- Batista will come back to form after a one year adjustment to switching leagues
- The Bullpen will be vastly improved because the group taken as a whole, hit rock bottom last season
- A full year of Gibby managing the squad will help
- Changing the playing surface will help the D

The off-season is far from over and JP has a lot of time to make moves. But unless JP can bring in a bat like a Carlos Lee type and bring in at least 2 quality bullpen arms (I'm not sure I would consider Billy Kock a quality arm)I have a hard time seeing the Jays winning 73 games next season. But of course the games are played on the field and not on paper. And I do believe anything can happen. The off-season already feels like it's been 4 months long...........

What should we talk about now then, I'm out of idea's as to who should replace Faulds and Cerutti.

I meant to type Billy "Koch" not "Kock". My bad.

Man, the Jays are really hurting this off-season. Koskie is a respectable acquisition, but there is really zilch happening otherwise (I don't count re-signing Speier as a major move). It seems to me that the wheels fell off when the Jays lost out on the Lee sweepstakes, which could have created a domino effect resulting in other interesting deals. Now we're supposed to get excited about signing Koch, Hillenbrand, Odalis Perez, or rotator-cuff injured Wade Miller? The Jays have millions to spend, but can't seem to get anything exciting done. I'm really torn--I don't want to see the team start 2005 with the status quo--but neither do I want to see JP spend the surplus budget on a few mediocre players. There has got to be a better approach.

I wouldn't write off JP yet, guys. If he's got a few more moves in him like Gaudin for Cash, things could be looking a whole brighter soon, even if there isn't much left in the FA pool.

My concern is that I was concerned about the offense last season at this time (despite our prior success) and was told by many that everything was gonna be fine. Now we've lost our best bat. The clock is ticking.

I'll be disappointed if the Delgado money gets spent on Koskie and Hillenbrand. I hope there are other things in the works.

Moffat,

To be honest, I can't envision this line-up being that different. I would be surprised if it changed at all, with the exception of adding another power bat to DH of course.

There's a chance they'll wind up above average at 2B

Ya think? Glad to see we're back to disagreeing.

2004 AL average second baseman: .259 / .320 / .397
2004 Orlando Hudson: .270 / .341 / .438

I wouldn't write off JP yet, guys. If he's got a few more moves in him like Gaudin for Cash, things could be looking a whole brighter soon, even if there isn't much left in the FA pool.

It's certainly not time to write him off, but I think there is plenty of reason to be nervous. And I think it's fair to say that so far I'm disappointed in this offseason.

Okay, there's a very good chance.

Wow. I didn't realize how awful American league 2Bs were last year. Yet nobody went after Polanco. Weird.

The lack of market for Polanco is as baffling as the 3-year $20-something pitcher contracts IMHO.

I don't think there's that much reason to be nervous. The idea the Jays are running out of time is absurd. It's not even January!

Go back and look at all the transactions there were in Jan 2004. There's still a lot of time left on the clock.

I'd vote Wilner, as least he tells it as it is. Love his work.

Faulds was awful, Rod Black is obviously gay.

Who was the guy that used to do the Jays games on CTV years ago? Him and his wife also had a kid's gameshow(something to the effect of racing cars?)

Who was the guy that used to do the Jays games on CTV years ago? Him and his wife also had a kid's gameshow(something to the effect of racing cars?)

You must be thinking of the great Fergie Olver, Cory, though I don't recall any racing cars on Just Like Mom :)

http://www.forums.mlb.com/ml-bluejays/messages?msg=11609.21
DeMarco, out of curiosity, do you post on the MLB board as well?
COMN.

I can't wait to see how the Jays roster looks 3 and a half months from now. When JP took the GM job he knew he had to slash payroll and couldn't wait until Delgado's contract was off the books because he tied up a large portion of the Jay's budget. JP also knew once Delgado was gone he would finally for the first time as GM, have significant financial flexability to make roster moves.

To a large extent JP has been handcuffed in making roster moves ever since he arrived in Toronto until this off-season. If the Jays have a poor season next year I'll be interested to read/hear what people have to say about JP's "insert number of years" year plan.

So far I haven't been impressed with the JP regime but hopefully he proves me wrong this season.

I don't understand the apparent pursuit of Hillenbrand. The Toronto Sun has been wrong about things before (the Jays trying to trade Rios) and I can only hope they've made a similar error here.

Hillenbrand is a career average hitter in his second year of arbitration who isn't remarkable defensively and would play a non-impact defensive position on the team. He's played in hitters' parks during his career which have artificially boosted his surface stats. Why would the Jays actively try to acquire such a player?

If they could move their commitment to Hinske for the next three years it might be understandable. As it is it appears that they would trade some prospects just to use up their budget. Would they notice the difference at DH if they went after a bargain that cost them nothing like Fullmer? Or would Hillenbrand's .300 average and 80 rbis just look good in the papers? Is this really what the organization has come to after one bad year?

There is absolutely no way Orlando Hudson should be considered a below average second baseman either offensively, or, quite obviously, defensively.

Yeah..Hillenbrand is terrible, gotta hate those guys that hit .300 every year!

I agree....what is sooooooo wrong w/ Shea?

I'd rather he hit a single w/ 2 guys on base instead of walking so someone like Hinske can ground into a double play and end the inning.

A .300 Average and 80 RBI's would help this team.

But ofcourse his OBP + Slg ++ + What he had for breakfast stat is no good, so let's get Brad Fullmer

Braby21..that was the smartest thing I've heard today

The guy can hit, who cares where he played, who cares what his VORP is..The guy can flat out hit.

I'd rather he hit a single w/ 2 guys on base instead of walking so someone like Hinske can ground into a double play and end the inning.

Have you ever watched Hillenbrand?!? This guy is always among the league leaders in DPs. He gets quite a few more of them than Hinske does.

I won't argue that point, it's a good point, but he still hits .300 and he rarely K's.

Although getting rid of Hinske at this point is stupid IMO..

He may turn out to be Ben Grieve but his value can't drop much more, and Jays aren't going anywhere this year, I say stick itout with him.

Christopher, looks like Demarco is guilty as charged. I think we should move onto sentnecing. ;-D

It has been an interesting off season so far. There are a number of teams, which like the Jays, have money to spend (Baltimore, Detroit come to mind) but because they are unwilling/ unable to pay inflated prices and they are not seen as contenders they cannot get any decent free agents to sign with them. They don't seem to be able to get any trades done either perhaps because they need and can afford the only pieces that are tradeworthy.

Unfortunately, the only solution seems to be patience. Let the prospects play and build value both for the team and for trades. As well, take advantage of other teams misfortune (in July for example when teams are dropping out of contention or loading up) or stupidity.

Maybe the Jays should think about changing their strategy and finding less valued players - for example speed seems to be significantly undervalued in this market. Put together 7 or 8 speedsters with little power and steal at every chance. In theory this may not work as well as the high OBP/ homer strategy but in practice you might get more wins for your money than otherwise.

Hinske last year had 570 AB's and GIDP 14 times.

Hillenbrand last year had 515 AB's and GIDP 18 times.

On the Jays, Wells and Johnson lead the team in GIDP with 17 apiece.

""Faulds was awful, Rod Black is obviously gay.""

I would say Warren Sawkiw over Black. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

A .300 Average and 80 RBI's would help this team

A .300 average and 80 rbis would look nice on a stat line. Although I seriously doubt Hillenbrand would hit .300 playing in the SkyDome regularly as opposed to playing in Fenway or in Arizona's hitter's park. Check out his road numbers from 2004. Even if the does manage somewhere near those numbers you still have to take into account how many outs he burns up to produce those numbers (which is a lot).

And as far as grounding into double plays, players like Hillenbrand who are slow and constantly make contact and never walk ground into more double plays than anyone. He isn't a good investment anyway you slice it when there are equivalent or better AND cheaper options at DH out there.

But determining Hillenbrand's "real" level of ability is beside the point. The issue here is why would you want to spend prospects and $4 million on a mediocore player when you could probably spend a quarter of that and no prospects on a player who hits just as well and often better in most seasons?

I could understand if the Jays had $100 million to spend and it didn't matter that they were handing out money for mediocore performance. But they don't. Compared to the teams they are competing with they are exceedingly poor and have to make every dollar count. $4 million for Hillenbrand is not making your dollars count. It's making sure that you have a bland, ordinary offence.

Perhaps JP has determined that there is an exceptional market for average thirdbasemen? He seems to be collecting them.

What about Don Chevrier?

I really don't understand where all this talk of "leagues worst offence" is coming from.

Runs scored, 2004

1. Boston 949
2. New York 897
3. Chicago 865
4. Texas 860
5. Cleveland 858
6. Baltimore 842
7. Anaheim 836
8. Detroit 827

League Average: 811

9. Oakland 793
10. Minnesota 780
11. Kansas City 720
12. Toronto 719
13. Tampa Bay 714
14. Seattle 698

This is why. Just to make things more discouraging, historically, SkyDome has always been a pretty decent hitter's park - that may have changed (mainly by changes relative to the other parks in the league, I would think.) Does anyone happen to know how SkyDome stacks up as a hitter's park over the last couple of years?

Now I'm going to cut-and-paste something I posted about ten days ago.

This is the production they got out of each position last year.

POS___G___AB___R___H__2B__3B__HR__TB___RBI__BB__SO__SB__CS__BA__OBP__SLG__OPS

C____161__567__65__138__36___0__10__204___63___51__129__1__2__.243__.318__.360__.678
1b___161__588__87__160__30___0__33__289__116___77__129__2__1__.272__.361__.491__.853
2b___161__608__90__158__37___8__18__265___73___70__122__7__4__.260__.339__.436__.775
SS___161__584__62__154__27___8___6__215___59___43___85__3__4__.264__.317__.368__.685
3B___161__606__74__146__24___3__14__218___70___59__117_11__8__.241__.310__.360__.669
LF___161__620__76__173__39___1__11__247___80___43__110__1__3__.279__.329__.398__.728
CF___161__661__97__184__40___2__26__306___86___53__102_12__2__.278__.337__.463__.800
RF___161__635__80__176__32___9___6__244___56___45__119_18__4__.277__.331__.384__.716
DH___152__557__74__130__23__3___17__210___66___56__138__1__2__.233__.316__.377__.693

Yeah, yeah. HTML, not my thing.

If Koskie comes on board, he makes up for most of Delgado's 2004 production. I don't like his chances of matching Delgado's 2005 production, but that's not the problem.

Catcher and shortstop should be a little better - Kevin Cash will not be batting 181 times, which is bound to help the team. Adams should do a little more than Gomez/Woodward. Centre field will also be marginally better if Wells can simply play 150 games this time.

So I think at this point, the offense is roughly even with last year. If the offense is going to take a step forward, there are four spots where it needs to improve:

Can the Hinske spot in the lineup be better, whoever or whatever it is? Can the team get more than 17 HRs combined from the two corner outfielders? Can they find a designated hitter that will be better than .233 with 17 HR and .377 slugging percentage?

I'm all for starting Quiroz right out of the gate, like Texas did with Ivan Rodriguez if I'm not mistaken. The clock starts ticking for a catcher's lower body from day one. Don't waste him in Syracuse when his potential is great. Out of the gate with Adams, Koskie and Quiroz and this team starts winnimg a lot of close games they lost last year (and a lot that weren't close).

But ofcourse his OBP + Slg ++ + What he had for breakfast stat is no good, so let's get Brad Fullmer

Yeah, because JP has shown a real desire to keep Brad Fullmer on the team. It's funny how you use AVG and RBI and K, but mock those who use OBP and SLG. A stat is a stat, and the latter two are way better than RBI when it comes to determining a player's value.

I thought they sat in a racing car with their partner and answered questionnes. Must be a different game show. But Just Like Mom rocked!

The clock starts ticking for a catcher's lower body from day one.

Thing is, when the butcher's bill comes due on Quiroz what are the chances that the Blue Jays will be the ones who have to pay? Texas ain't the ones on the hook if Ivan Rodriguez suddenly breaks down this summer...

Most catchers break down after 1200 plus games caught. How many are still with their original organization at that point? Not too many. The Jays don't need to worry about Quiroz ten years from now - they need to get him to a point where he can help the team now. If that means catching an extra 50 or 100 or (like this will ever happen) 200 games at AAA... so be it.

Zaun is near the end of his career and has never had a big payday.

I was in agreement with that, but I thought I'd look it up anyway...

1995 - $ 109,000
1996 - $ 140,000
1997 - $ 205,000
1998 - $ 280,000
1999 - $ 450,000
2000 - % 525,000
2001 - $1,150,000
2002 - $1,150,000
2003 - $1,2000,000
2004 - I dunno.

One way to look at it: he's done a little better than I have.

Another way to look at it: in his career, he's made a little more than Delgado made while he was on the DL last year...

Sure, a stat is a stat

I'd just prefer to use my gut, and experience.

Use all the stats you want, nobody is stopping you.

The point appears to be that you're using stats (he hits .300 and doesn't K a lot) while mocking others who don't like his OBP and SLG stats.

a stat is a stat
I'd just prefer to use my gut, and experience.

Except you were using stats your own self.

but he still hits .300 and he rarely K's.

A .300 Average and 80 RBI's would help this team.

Not necessarily. It depends on a whole lot of other things.

who cares where he played

Everybody cares. It matters. You don't really think Dante Bichette was the best hitter in the NL in 1995. Just because he hit .340 and led the league in HR and RBI. Everybody knows better.

Yeah, I use the stats people have been using for 100 years
In today's game, people get to caught up in stats, just MO.

I'm just a guy that believes in the intagibles.

Maybe statistics like VORP, and stats like that are the be all and end all. But I don't think so.

I just don't believe you have to make baseball a science class to figure out if a certain guy is a good player.

http://www.espnvideogames.com/_img/...5_trailer_1.mpg
COMN for teaser trailer for ESPN MLB 2k6.

They got Jon Miller and Joe Morgan doing the audio this season. I like the atmosphere I see.

Typo: MLB 2k5

really, my point is, JP can draft with a spreadsheet, or sign Free agents based on such stats, or fire scouts across the world until the cows come home.

The Jays are going to finish 3rd or worse in the Al East until Ted Rogers opens up his purse.

It has nothing to do with "Moneyball"

I'm just a guy that believes in the intagibles.

I don't think anyone really doesn't believe in "intangibles," because these are human beings we're talking about, not statistic-generating machines who go into shutdown mode from November to February.

However, using batting average doesn't say anything about intangibles. Maybe Shea Hillenbrand is a great team leader and a good guy in the clubhouse and he brings good chemistry with him. His lack of strikeouts won't reflect this, neither will his RBI or VORP. Or any statistic.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1951207
The Johnson deal is dead for now. Sorry, George.

OK, I can see your point.

But 20 years ago a guy hits .300 and drives in 80 runs, he's a solid player. Now he's crap because they've invented a bunch of new stats that make him crap.

I think a guy like Hillenbrand could help this team, he's nothing special but he's a solid ball player. That's all I'm saying.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1951207
COMN, for the article, by the way.

I just don't believe you have to make baseball a science class to figure out if a certain guy is a good player.

Here's the thing - they're all good players. What is the difference between, say, Shea Hillenbrand and Sean Casey? They're not that large. They played 1B in the NL last year; Casey in 146 games and Hillenbrand in 148 games.

Casey had 9 more at bats and 9 more hits than Hillenbrand. Over six months. Its a small, small thing. Every three weeks, one extra hit.

Now Casey's extra hits were all home runs, which actually is significant. It adds up. He has more power than Hillenbrand (he also hit more doubles, 44-36). Casey doesn't walk much (only 46 BB), but Hillenbrand never walks at all, so Casey gets on base a little more.

These differences are small, but they amount to something - and Casey was a significantly better hitter than Hillenbrand last year.

To which you might say "I knew that already - I know a guy hits .324 with 24 HR and 99 RBI is better than the guy who hits .310 with 15 HR and 80 RBI."

So how about Shea Hillenbrand and Lyle Overbay? Overbay hit .301 with 16 HR and 87 RBI in 159 games for the Brewers. That's pretty close to Hillenbrand, and maybe not quite as good. Overbay's 1 HR and 7 RBI can be attributed to playing 11 more games. Is Overbay as good as Hillenbrand?

No: he's actually a little better. There are four main differences between them: Overbay strikes out more than twice as often (128-49); Hillenbrand hit into more DPs (19-11); Overbay hits lots and lots of doubles (53-36); Overbay walks much more often (81-24).

Its small stuff, its just details, but the details make a difference - one guy gets on base more often than the othe guy. He doesn't make as many outs as the other guy. He gives you a few more extra-base hits. He is a better offensive player than the other guy.

The other main differences between Hillenbrand and Overbay: a) Hillenbrand is two years older; b) Hillenbrand made $2.6 million last year, Overbay made $326 K; c) Overbay was a little better with the bat last year; d) Hillenbrand can play 3B, and Overbay can't.

The thing is, unless you're talking about Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols, the effective differences between players are often really really small, bound up in the details, and not visible to the naked eye.

The Jays are going to finish 3rd or worse in the Al East until Ted Rogers opens up his purse.

That's possible - a lot depends on how things go at George Steinbrenner's Retirement Home for Expensive Superstars, and when and if he runs afoul of Bud Selig's 60/40 debt finanacing rules.

But 20 years ago a guy hits .300 and drives in 80 runs, he's a solid player. Now he's crap because they've invented a bunch of new stats that make him crap.

He's not crap.

But something else has happened that has nothing to do with a bunch of new stats - the post-1994 offensive explosion. It was possible to lead the American League in HRs by hitting 36 round-trippers as recently as 15 years ago. Try doing that now.

So in this offensive environment, standards are different. The bar has been raised.

And this is nothing new - standards move all the time.

Carl Yastrzemski in 1968: .301, 23 HRs, 74 RBI, 119 walks. But he was a more valuable offensive player than Goose Goslin in 1930. Even though Goslin hit .301 with 37 HR and 138 RBI.

I understand the stats, I'm not a moron, I'd take Casey and Overbay over Hillenbrand in a second. The stats you are reffering to are not the stats I have in question.

but

a) Overbay ain't goin nowhere

b) Casey could probably be had for decent pitching but JP would not be able to get him because Ted Rogers is cheap. I realize Casey is a better hitter than Hillebrand, I think even the most dim witted fan knows this.

I'm not some super Hillenbrand fan I just think he's a good player, and may be available on the cheap.

All this being said I appreciate you discussing it like a human being.

I may not be all for stats like some people here, but you guys are obviously a great bunch of fans with a great knowledge of the game.

Anyone that tells me MLB doesn't belong in canada, I send them here.

We all have different definitions of who the good and bad players are. Nothing wrong with that.

I do understand that for those who grew up only knowing AVG-HR-RBI, anything else seems new and weird. Look at the majority of baseball broadcasts today -- they only use those three numbers when a player is up to the plate, or W-L-SV-ERA for a pitcher. Sportsnet is one of the few broadcasts that uses WHIP and OBP in its displays. If you asked my mom what a good batting average was, she'd say .300. If you asked her what a good on-base percentage was, she'd stare at you like you just asked her for the name of the mayor of Piggentug, North Dakota.

20 years from now, if someone told me WHIP was a fairly useless statistic, I wouldn't believe it. It makes sense to me, just like driving in runs makes sense to many people. There are a million numbers out there. None of them tell you absolutely everything about a player.

All this being said I appreciate you discussing it like a human being.

I'll take the liberty of replying for Magpie with a sentiment I'm sure he shares with me:
It's no fun if we just scream at each other. :)

I'd take Casey and Overbay over Hillenbrand in a second

Well, I just picked Casey because his GPL were almost the same...

and then Overbay because his Triple Crown numbers were so close...

I'd like Hillenbrand a lot more if he was a good third baseman; but I don't think he hits enough to play 1B in the AL. Its not like the Jays have a bat like Ramirez playing LF or Tejada at SS - they need to get a lot of offense out of 1B.

I may not be all for stats like some people here, but you guys are obviously a great bunch of fans with a great knowledge of the game.

Thank you for the kind words - there are lots of regulars here who are keen to share what we've learned over, lo, these many years of watching and cheering and thinking.

But let me warn you - never argue with Dudek about defense.

Hi, Robert! :-)

The funny thing is I'm 21 :)

"I'd like Hillenbrand a lot more if he was a good third baseman; but I don't think he hits enough to play 1B in the AL. Its not like the Jays have a bat like Ramirez playing LF or Tejada at SS - they need to get a lot of offense out of 1B."

I couldn't agree more, the problem is, Hinske isn't the answer at 1B either. Unless he goes nuts this year, which is possible I suppose.

There are a million numbers out there. None of them tell you absolutely everything about a player.

Amen, brother.

Dunny, don't worry about knowing all the stats to have a good discussion of baseball in here.

I'm new to the sport of baseball (I've only really followed the sport since 2002, although I've watched bits and pieces before that)and sabermetrics and other non-traditional mainstream stats sometimes go way over my head.

Whenever I see posts or other websites that pump out a crazy amount of stats for arguments, my heads get dizzy looking at it.

I'll leave most of the uber-stats to all the seamhead stat geeks out there:)

The funny thing is I'm 21

Hey, I'm 17, and three years ago I had never even heard of OBP.

It's true that the Jays could use a bigger payroll. And I've been skeptical about their chances in the AL East without a competitive budget--say $75 million, at least. On the other hand, JP's track record has been pretty uneven--compared, say, to Billy Beane, or Terry Ryan, who also have limited budgets. We have Lilly, on the one hand, which was a nice trade. And I still think the Hinske trade was pretty good (it's the 5-year contract that now looks dubious). He's also done well with some utility and backup players, and a couple of bullpen guys--Bordick, Myers, Zaun, Menenchino, Speier. But there has been a ton (tonne?) of players that have been mediocre or worse. Lidle, Sturze, Prokopec, Tam, Griffin, Arnold, Berg, Hentgen, Ligtenberg, Adams...the list goes on. And on. (Most of these are pitchers, interestingly.)

Granted, quite a few of the latter have been 'take-a-flyer', low-risk signings. But virtually none of them--prospects or big-league players--have panned out. Despite all the payroll slashing, salary dumps, and strategic trades (ie, where we have a surplus at some position like OF), we really haven't been left with much in return.

Moreover, Baseball America recently rated our farm system as "middle of the pack".

So yes, when I hear about the team's plans to acquire more middling players like Hillenbrand or Koch, or suddenly changing direction to become a pitching-and-defence team, I just can't get too excited.

http://www.naturesguard.com
Wilner is Perfect and ready. I used to love Scott Fergeson but that mans best friend was the cough button. I think he has (or at least had) a studdering problem. Elliot Friedman is a strong choice as well.

On the other hand I'm a trained actor and also went to school for Broadcast Jornalism at Fanshawe. I reported on the knights and did play by play for the mustangs, but my first love is Baseball. I hope its not to late to get my resume out there. COMN for my current work, hope to have some audio up there soon. Vote for Bryan!! ;)

heh, not to toot my own horn, but I was on scholarship for a bit
(ended in disaster, my own fault) I've worked out for Kevin Briand, and I've played up and down the East Coast a few times...

But it still amazes me how many guys (or broads?) on this board know the stats inside out, it's incredible. All I do is learn on this board, all you can do is learn!

I love baseball for the statistics. It's the only sport where virtually every thing that a player does on the field can be measured somehow. I think it's because of the stats that I got so heavily into baseball. Weird, I know.

On the Jays, Wells and Johnson lead the team in GIDP with 17 apiece.

I'm somewhat surprised that it wasn't Phelps. I mean I know he wasn't there the whole year, but he seemed to GIDP twice a game. Good thing we have stats to prove I'm wrong. ;)

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=1951119
Canadian Jeff Zimmerman signs(comm).

A question for all the stat-junkies here...

Did you guys suddenly "get into stats" when the Jays hired Ricciardi to further understand what the Jays would become? Or were you Pro-Crazy Stats With Long Abbreviations before he was hired and even into the Gordo regime?

I'm really interested in the answer of this question so if someone can answer, it'd be appreciated.

I've been into stats my whole life. Not just with baseball, but with everything. Even on this site, I'd love to know the stats (how many visitors, which thread has the most posts, which poster has the most posts, etc. etc.)

As I said, I think it's because of the stats that I'm so heavily into baseball. I'd still be a fan, but not a hardcore fan, or whatever that's called. Who cares about JP Ricciardi. I've never even read Moneyball!

I asked a question earlier in the day re: Billy Beane's cache of 1B/DH types, three of whom would probably be an upgrade on Eric Hinske. In his stable Mr. Beane has Scott Hatteberg (my interest in him is about the same as my interest in Shea Hillenbrand, ironically both were catchers in the Red Sox system, but I digress), Dan Johnson, Graham Koonce, and Erubiel Durazo.

I would guess Johnson would be most expensive in terms what goes back to Oakland, but you can't beat the salary (the minimum). Koonce would probably extract less flesh from our system and the salary would be the same. I just noticed Koonce isn't on a 40-man roster, even better, and his salary would be the minimum. Durazo would probably come cheaper from Beane than Johnson would and although his salary would be more, my guess is it would be in the same range as Hinske and Hillenbrand, around $4MIL after arbitration.

IMHO, all 3 are significantly better than both those two players. Bauxites, please help me analyse this one. Am I off my rocker, or am I makin' some sense? What would it take to get one of these three here?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1951207
In case nobody saw it, the deal is no more (orginally posted by doctor_payne_13).

Vasquez refused to play for Dodgers. COMN

typo: doctorpayne13

The funny thing is I'm 21

Hey, I'm 17,

Awww, crap. I'm 38, which means I'm as old as you two combined. And when you're my age, I'll be ... lessee .. carry the two ... uh ... dead, I guess.

Depodesta almost pulled off the heist. What's Vazquez thinking?

The article also mentions that Shawn Green has no desire to finish his career as a Dodger.

-Green might want to go elsewhere.
-Jays looking for a good bat.
-Green has a good bat.
-Green liked his stay in Toronto and its large Jewish community.

He could be a nice fit for the Jays however his contract is very unfavourable as he makes too much money(but who doesn't these days) and he becomes a free agent after 2005.

Did you guys suddenly "get into stats" when the Jays hired Ricciardi to further understand what the Jays would become?

For us older guys, probably two things: a) baseball cards when we were kids; b) reading the Bill James Abstracts as they came out in the 1980s.

It's hard to over-estimate the importance of the first one. We collected them, traded them, hoarded them, put them in our bicycle spokes, and looked at them over and over and over (none of this wrapping them in cellophane to let them appreciate in value!). I have to look up what Goose Goslin did in 1929, or what Barry Bonds did in 1999. But I know Reggie Jackson hit .275 with 47 HR and 118 RBI in 1969.

One other thing, to bring baseball cards and Bill James together. As James once pointed out, baseball statistics are capable of telling stories. As he memorably (to me, anyway) demonstrated by fabricating two career stats lines for a couple of fictitious players. You could look at the career numbers and know/imagine what kind of player this was, what had happened in his career... there's a whole narrative there.

I've played up and down the East Coast a few times

Me too, but not baseball. :-)

He could be a nice fit for the Jays however his contract is very unfavourable as he makes too much money

For this year, its $16 million. The Jays would have to play with eight guys.

really, my point is, JP can draft with a spreadsheet, or sign Free agents based on such stats, or fire scouts across the world until the cows come home.

Not to back up the discussion, but the scouts that were fired were replaced with other scouts. J.P. was a scout. He decided to bring on-board people he knew and/or had worked with.

The scout-firing is just another red herring repeated over and over by certain media members who are unhappy with the current administration for whatever reason, and who have but a fleeting relationship with reality. Unfortunately, when it's all that most people have to read, they believe it.

And what would you use to run a draft if you weren't using a spreadsheet to keep your data organized? A bunch of pieces of paper in a stainless steel bucket? Or would you just draft off of the top of your head, picking people with cool names? "Spreadsheet" sounds dorky, sounds like something a true Sport Man would flee from, but really it's just a way of putting your stuff into readable piles.

Red herrings.

If you ever wonder why some of us think that certain members of the Toronto media are unreasonable and deliberately distort facts because of some kind of personal agenda, this is why.

Is it so hard to write analysis of a baseball team without distortion or outright lies?

http://www.stephenking.com/images/Faithful/Faithful.jpg
Hah! COMN to see the cover of Stephen King's chronicle of the 2004 Red Sox baseball season.

Hah, yeah. I saw that at Chapters the other day.

And there's no way the Jays could get Shawn Green with that salary. Even if the Dodgers paid half of it, it would still probably be too much.

For us older guys, probably two things: a) baseball cards when we were kids; b) reading the Bill James Abstracts as they came out in the 1980s.

It pains me to think of myself as 'older', but relative to these teenagers, I probably am :)

wrt the stats thing, it definately was baseball cards for me. Between me and my brother, we had box-loads of the things. We even had those sticker-books that came out every year.

I'd never heard of Bill James until I'd first came across Neyer and his Flannel Shirt on the intarweb - jeez, 7-8 years ago. I'm shamed to admit that I still havent gone off and found copies of the Abstracts.

I got into baseball stats when I first got in to baseball 20 years ago. Back then I was in to the "traditional stats". It wasn't until university (late 90s) that I got into sabermetrics.

Most of the statistics in sabermetrics really are not crazy, and if you read the original unveiling of them they make sense. I.e., they aren't created out of whole cloth just to have "crazy long names".

Hillenbrand is not a bad player, but he isn't a particularly good one. I'd rather stick with Hinske than pay a prospect to get Hillenbrand to replace him.

As to judging the JP regime, I think we wouldn't know for at least another 2 years how good he is as a GM because his draft classes are the most important part for the Jays because they "have" to compete with such a smaller budget.

Jason Lake from Vancouver, B.C. would be an ideal candidate to call the Jays. He has a lot of experience in the Vancouver sports media and is a walking encyclopedia of baseball knowledge. This guy pulls stats out of his head faster than most people can look them up. He also has a great, sonorous vocal timbre which is perfect for broadcast sports. He'd probably also work cheaper than Rod Black. Check him out, Sportsnet...

And what would you use to run a draft if you weren't using a spreadsheet to keep your data organized?

Is there anybody else here old enough to remember how much fun it was keeping baseball stats updated before spreadsheets? Lotus 1-2-3 changed my life.

On the other hand, I maintain to this day that my facility with figures stems entirely from a misspent youth trying to do calculations like 143 divided by 562 in my head. Which is going to be what, about .253? That's an estimate - I can tell 143 for 572 is .250, so this would be a few points better...

Anyway, we learned the basics when we were young: 2 for 9 is .222, 3 for 11 is .273, 2 for 7 is .286.

They don't teach kids these things anymore. That's what's wrong with the world now. (Makes grumpy old fogey noises.)

Did you guys suddenly "get into stats" when the Jays hired Ricciardi to further understand what the Jays would become?

Not me. In the late 60s as a kid, I would study the long weekly batting charts that were published in the Saturday newspaper. The charts were organized by batting average. Also on Saturday, the Game of the Week had Curt Gowdy and Joe Garagiola, with Allan Roth providing the stats. Roth had originally been hired by Branch Rickey as the first paid statistician in the game, and later provided TV viewers with more information that they could get in the newspaper.

Intuitively, I knew when playing ball how important working counts and walks were, but it was the arrival of Bill James in the early 80s (he actually started in the 70s, but very few knew of him then) that showed me analytically why it was so.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/scorecard/12/13/faithful.excerpt/index.html
COMN for Faithful Excerpt

It continues to amaze me how high people in general are on Dan Johnson, and how Eric Crozier get absolutely no respect.

Consider their 2004 stats:

       	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB
Johnson	.299	.403	.534	536
Crozier	.292	.380	.528	390

So Johnson's clearly superior, right? Well, before we get the plaque made up, it occurs to me that they didn't play in the same AAA league, so let's just have a look at the league average where they did play.

       	AVG	OBP	SLG
PCL	.283	.353	.452
IL	.271	.339	.428

Very interesting... now let's see how these two look when we normalize to league.

       	AVG+	OBP+	SLG+
Johnson	106	114	118
Crozier	108	112	123

Voila! A matched pair of offensive first basemen.

I'm not about to claim that Crozier is as good as Johnson or should be expected to be as good as Johnson in 2005. He's a full year older, and the adjustment above does not account for park (I have park factors for Buffalo (.989) & Syracuse (1.043), so I know that Crozier played in a roughly neutral park overall, but I have no idea how Sacremento's park plays). But like I said, it doesn't make sense to me that people get all worked up about Johnson while never giving Crozier a second thought.

Koonce I will argue is no upgrade over Crozier. His 2004 line was .277/.403/.542 in 480 AB (adjusted: 98/114/120) and he's 3 years older than Crozier.

Hah! COMN to see the cover of Stephen King's chronicle of the 2004 Red Sox baseball season.

My boys (10 & 9) love that "face mush" picture - we had it as the wallpaper on the kid's computer for a while. Sometimes when the kids are just sitting with me watching a video or something, I'll reach over, gently grab one of their faces and shout "Faced Mush" - cracks them up every time.

I was given the book, called Faithful, for my birthday a week or so ago and so far (about 1/3 of the way in) it's quite interesting. I never realized how angst-ridden long-time Red Sox fans are. After I've finished, I might try a book review for posting.

In the 80's Bill James Yearbook WAS the DO NOT MISS baseball book of the year. It changed the way EVERYONE who read it watched and understood baseball.

His insights were fantastic!

I would study the long weekly batting charts that were published in the Saturday newspaper.

You were lucky. (Cue Monty Python, "Four Yorkshiremen."

I was in Winnipeg when I was a kid, and the papers only listed the top five hitters in each league. No box scores, just line scores. I used to go to the public library so I could read the stats in the Sunday New York Times.

Magpie, great point. If you know that 1 for 7 is .143 and 2 for 7 is .286 without even thinking about it, you spent your youth with batting charts or baseball cards. There are worse things to do.

jsoh, I highly recommend the 1983-88 abstracts, and the 90-91 books. The writing is superb, and the thinking clear.

Any of you guys know if EA Sports MVP 2005 will have the legends/hall of famers, and classic stadiums again?

Any of you guys know if EA Sports MVP 2005 will have the legends/hall of famers, and classic stadiums again?

In the last of Stephen King's Dark Tower books, an elderly gentleman in the late 1970s discovers that his visitors are from the future and immediately asks them if the Red Sox will win the World Series during his lifetime. It's a wonderful moment, and I found out shortly after reading that book that King was following the Sox in '04 for the purposes of writing a book about them.

What a season to pick, eh?

I've been into baseball since I was 4 or 5 years old. I can't remember what my statistical knowledge was back then, but I'd guess it was pretty limited.

For the most part we all talk about stats most of the time, whether it be SABR stats or traditional stats (which are far from useless). But no one would suggest stats tell you everything. They're terrific at telling you what, but not always so great at telling you why. A stat might tell me that a pitcher gives up a lot of home runs, but generally speaking it won't tell me that it's because he hangs too many breaking pitches when behind in the count.

If we seem stats obsessed it's because most of the questions we ask tend to deal with what, particularly in the off-season, becausee they're relevant when discussing which players to acquire and which to say away from.

But if you start a discussion about a why question, I think you'll be surprised to find the level of knowledge on non-statisical baseball issues from some of the regulars here. Ask a question about swing mechanics and I'd bet you'd practically get an essay from Coach. :)

No box scores, just line scores

Now that must have been frustrating! The Star usually published the boxscores (except for the West Coast games) when I was growing up; the Globe published mostly linescores. It is for this reason that I continue to subscribe to the Star even though it is a far inferior paper.

I highly recommend the 1983-88 abstracts

All of them, of course - and I especially would single out the 1986 edition for two reasons. 1)James' Royals had just won the World Series which prompted a long and fascinating essay on the tribulations of being a Kansas City baseball fan (it is hard to exagerrate just how bad the A's were during their KC years). 2) Under the guise of writing about Chuck Tanner, he turned in one of the most trenchant pieces of writing about athletes and what athletes mean to the rest of us that I have ever read.

I thought they sat in a racing car with their partner and answered questionnes. Must be a different game show. But Just Like Mom rocked!

Oh, now I know what you're talking about Cory. You're thinking about the game show where the siblings sat in the cars, and the winning team had to solve a rebus to win the grand prize, which was usually a trip for the whole family to Walt Disney World. It aired in the late 80s for a couple of seasons. What was the name of that show?

I can picture the host, I think his name was Kevin something or other. He was a comic and sometime commercial actor, but I don't think he ever had anything to do with the Blue Jays.

If you know that 1 for 7 is .143 and 2 for 7 is .286 without even thinking about it, you spent your youth with batting charts or baseball cards.

Or had an unhealthy fascination with math in general. Not that there's anything wrong with that :)

Mike: Thanks for the Bill James recommendations. I'll keep an eye out for them, the next time I let myself into a used-book store. Somehow, everytime I wander into one, my wallet gets lighter and my bookshelf gets fuller.

Happy baseball stats memory: Being at summer camp when I was oh.. 10-11 years old. The sports sections of the Star were so incredibly popular and prone to disappearing from the camp library, that the admin's just tossed up their hands, and posted the stats/standings spread behind class out in the yard.

I recall wandering over every day and spending a good 20-30 minutes checking up on the Jays, and going over the AL/NL leader boards and box scores.

Good times, I tell you. Good times.

http://www.easports.com/games/mvp2005/home.jsp
Jim, even though EA's website doesn't list it in the fact sheet, I'm pretty sure the legends/classic stadiums will be returning. Heck I think they're going to add more legends this year.

What's cool is that you can create your own ballpark in the 05 version. I wish they added an expansion mode ala All-Star Baseball. Imagine building your team from scratch and suiting them for your ballpark.

This season I will buy ESPN MLB 2k5. I've never played a ESPN MLB game before but the price will probably be only $30 so it's too hard to pass it up. I also like it how they have the full ESPN presentation. The teaser trailer looks fantastic.

Did you guys suddenly "get into stats" when the Jays hired Ricciardi to further understand what the Jays would become? Or were you Pro-Crazy Stats With Long Abbreviations before he was hired and even into the Gordo regime?

For me it was a combination of Bill James and fantasy baseball... I remember looking at the 5x5 categories and thinking how weird it was giving roto points to SBs and ignoring CSs... how painful it was to watch Tony Batista as a Jays fan but feel much more rewarded by his juicy power numbers in my baseball pools.

It basically got me thinking more about what truly makes a baseball player valuable (offensively) in "real life" and how the reputation of some players seemed to exceed their contributions.

""Did you guys suddenly "get into stats" when the Jays hired Ricciardi to further understand what the Jays would become? Or were you Pro-Crazy Stats With Long Abbreviations before he was hired and even into the Gordo regime?""

I'm no stat head, and by this site's standard perhaps possessing below average baseball knowledge. None the less, I got into the stat's of baseball after reading 'Money Ball'. I mean I was good with the stats as a kid when it came to win% and Avg. but "Money Ball" turned me on to the significance of statistical analysis as it pertains to the decision making process of managing a big league club. I found that interesting.

I actually read 'Money Ball' one summer while taking an OAC data managing course in sumemr school, and at the same time learning poker. The over lap between the three made stats more accesible and interesting to me at the time.

""Awww, crap. I'm 38, which means I'm as old as you two combined. And when you're my age, I'll be ... lessee .. carry the two ... uh ... dead, I guess.""

Haha that was funny. I'm 21 by the by.

""reading the Bill James Abstracts as they came out in the 1980s.""

I'm getting the Historical Abstract for X-mas. Anybody know if it's any good?

I'm getting the Historical Abstract for X-mas. Anybody know if it's any good?

Absolutely fabulous.

I wasn't really into stats until last summer. I wanted to read more books about baseball, and I happened to find a copy of one of Bill James' annual abstracts for 2 bucks at a used bookstore. I'd heard that he was the best statsman, so I got it, and I was surprised at how good it was, even though it talks about things that I didn't really care about like the best player of the 80's or Bo Jackson's time in KC. I liked it, and I went on to read (most of) his big historical abstract, his book on the hall of fame, and Moneyball.

So for me, it was less JP coming in then it was a renewed interest in baseball, and having time to read up on it.

I love this "how did you get into stats" discussion so I'm hesitant to steer the conversation in another direction but I have a question.

Does Javier Vazquez have a no trade clause with the Yankees? I'm pretty sure he doesn't. So it seems strange to me that his refusal to play in Los Angeles would scuttle the Yankees/DBacks/Dodgers blockbuster. Maybe the participating GMs were confused by having to consider RJ's and Shawn Green's no trade clauses and they assumed that they needed every player's consent to consumate the deal. What the Yankees should do is start talking to Colorado about a Vazquez deal. I'm sure that Vazquez would quickly realize that LA isn't the worst place in the world to play.

I'm getting the Historical Abstract for X-mas. Anybody know if it's any good?

It's a great book to just flip to a random page and read. Flip to the index, look up a player, and you can find things like Bill James using Joe Carter to talk about clutch hitting, or (IIRC) Luis Aparacio's time in Mexico, or Jackie Robinson's fielding ability, or a short poem on David Cone. It's got a great mix of stats and anecdotes about the players.

The only bad thing about it is that it uses Win Shares to rank the players, but the explanation of Win Shares is given in another book. But it's still the best baseball book that I've read.

I think that Vasquez scuttled the trade by refusing to report for the physical, which caused the Dodgers to back out.

I'm getting the Historical Abstract for X-mas. Anybody know if it's any good?

It defines baseball book.

On the topic of baseball books, I just got a copy of "The Ultimate Baseball Roadtrip" and couldn't believe how much inaccurate information there actually was.

If you're planning a baseball roadtrip, theres 100 better alternatives.

I've always been a mathematically inclined individual (for years I could tell you the day of the week for any random date, say October 4, 1982) but I never got into advanced baseball statistics until I read...Moneyball. August 2003, in fact. I was in Halifax at the time.

I read a SI excerpt from the book, and ran out and bought it ten minutes later for $15 at some hole-in-the-wall store next to Pier 21. The Bill James chapter was a shock (I can only imagine how great the full Abstracts were) and one thing he said was absolutely true. Most of the knowledge of baseball I acquired up to that point came from TV play-by-play men, and it was almost all wrong.

And it was. Suddenly I understood that a 2-1 count wasn't automatically the count to hit-and-run, "nobody out and a runner on first" didn't always mean to bunt the runner over, and it doesn't matter if the offense can "pick up" the starting pitcher -- seven innings with two runs allowed on three hits is a fine start, W or no W.

I do remember the Saturday sports section, with all the teams listed as mentioned above. I remember OBP was next to AVG, and I never knew what it was. I pretended it was another form of batting average -- which I knew off by heart from, yes, the back of baseball cards -- and I was quite pleased that the 1998 version of Carlos Delgado "hit" .385. The old Baseball Weekly was great as well, with its team statistics and everything.

However, I'm not a fan of stats I can't calculate myself. Usually when evaluating players, I use nothing more advanced than what's listed on this page. I don't want to use Win Shares or VORP or RARP when I don't really know what they mean.

For years, I thought Joe Carter was the greatest hitter ever, Alex Gonzalez was a future superstar, and Craig Grebeck always got a hit when it counted.

And, for no reason whatsoever, I followed the 2000 Blue Jays like a hawk. I remember the exact room I was in when the Jays acquired Mickey Morandini, because I was confused why they sent Rob Ducey back to the Phillies after about a week in Toronto. In fact, I'm still confused.

I love this "how did you get into stats" discussion

Me too. Thank you, Shea Hillenbrand!

I've yet to run into any person who read the James Abstracts of the '80s at the time they were published whose view of baseball was not completely changed. That's how important they were.

Vazquez!

""Oh, now I know what you're talking about Cory. You're thinking about the game show where the siblings sat in the cars, and the winning team had to solve a rebus to win the grand prize, which was usually a trip for the whole family to Walt Disney World. It aired in the late 80s for a couple of seasons. What was the name of that show?""

Ya, and the kids would clap with thier hands over thier heads before and aftre the show. Wow, I was young whne that show was on.

But if you start a discussion about a why question, I think you'll be surprised to find the level of knowledge on non-statisical baseball issues from some of the regulars here. Ask a question about swing mechanics and I'd bet you'd practically get an essay from Coach. :)

Or you could ask Hinske about swing mechanics... then again you could just look at his numbers ;)

One of my favourite things was the story of the Salisbury Indians. Now there's a pennant race for you.

(for years I could tell you the day of the week for any random date, say October 4, 1982)

So. You gonna make us ask?

""(for years I could tell you the day of the week for any random date, say October 4, 1982)

So. You gonna make us ask?""

Haha I was wondering that myself.

Any one know when Sf's mailbag's comming out? I'm running out of things to read...

""It defines baseball book.""
""Absolutely fabulous.""
""it's still the best baseball book that I've read.""

Wow, thanks guys. I honestly can't wait to get my hands on it.

Jonny German: Thanks, that's the kind of analysis I was looking for. To know that there is a possible solution, maybe 2-4 months away (Crozier looked a bit lost in September, but it was his first go around and he wasn't playing regularly) makes it look like 1st base is deeper than I'd thought and that there are other positions more in need of an upgrade. Crozier might even play his way on to the team out of spring training. He seems to have had success at every level in the minors, including AAA, so maybe it's time to give him a shot up here again.

How's his defense? Anybody know? I know from casual observation that it was better than Delgado's, but that's kind of like saying so and so's a better hitter than Luis Rivas (*somewhere Gleeman groans*).

Incidentally, his name is Eric Le Roi Crozier. Down in Columbus, OH, that just makes him another 'LeRoy', but up here, he's 'The King'. ;)

maybe it's been mentioned somewhere, but if JP is seriously considering acquiring hillenbrand, why wouldn't he have attempted to sign joe randa? his on base is never that great (if memory serves) but he doesn't K all that much and he'll hit around .280, plus, he wouldn't have cost anything in a trade --

boggles my mind, which would lead me to believe he really isn't leaning towards grabbing hillenbrand --

i will be surprised if he does and i will not be as confident in his GM skills as i am now if the rumours end up being truth --

October 4, 1982

Freaky, that was the exact date I was born. You have officially blown my mind Rob.

The Star usually published the boxscores (except for the West Coast games) when I was growing up; the Globe published mostly linescores.

As great as it is to have in-game boxscores on the 'net now, I still kind of miss checking the boxes in the paper. (My parents got the afternoon edition of the Star -- remember those? -- so they even had the West Coast boxes in them). I used to be SO jealous, though, of American fans because of USA Today's expanded boxscores. Imagine... walks in a boxscore!

Picking up Baseball Weekly first thing Wednesday (was that the day?) morning from the "broken" box on York near Front. Ahh... good times...

Count me among those for whom the Abstracts "revolutionized" the game. I'd never heard of James before getting the '84 book for my birthday. My friend actually had the '83 book. Best. Present. Ever. (Well, at least one that would be appropriate for a 10-year old. :)

Tie-ing the stats and broadcasters topics together, one reason I was happy when Shulman got the job was that, with him having studied Actuarial Science (!), I knew he'd certainly be able to "understand" baseball stats...

Unlike Jeter's dramatics, Crozier really did dive into the stands to make the catch.
IMO, He showed some evidence of power but we'll get a better look at him in 2005.

rumours of getting Hillenbrand could possibly make Hinske work harder and supposingly get better, but I think Hinske works hard enough; he just needs to find his niche in his hitting

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20041221/BAS21SPEIER/TPSports/Baseball
So. You gonna make us ask?

Notice the "for years I could tell you" part, implying I can't do it anymore? Past tense was used for a reason. :)
Once I was allowed to use a calculator in math class -- Grade 7 -- my ability to do mental math declined.

Picking up Baseball Weekly first thing Wednesday (was that the day?)

Ohh, yeah. I went to the Chapters downtown every Wednesday after school for that issue. When they added football, I thought it would be cool having both in the same paper, but...no.

As for Blue Jays news, seeing as how this is the Roundup, COMN for a Globe and Mail article that I think says Speier is the "closer" and League will be in the Jays' bullpen to start 2005. Here's why:

He's not necessarily flat-out going to be the closer," Blue Jays general manager J. P. Ricciardi said. "He has a good arm and pitched in the second half the way we thought he could. He gives us experience in our bullpen, which is going to have a lot of young guys next year.

I know, JP says otherwise. But it's much easier to call Speier the closer and satisfy those who demand that Toronto needs to name a closer right away or risk the Paddling of the Swollen Ass...With Paddles.

Freaky, that was the exact date I was born.

Was anyone here born April...8...1979? Anyone?

How's his defense? Anybody know? I know from casual observation that it was better than Delgado's,

Crozier sure looked like he can be a good first baseman - he showed a lot of athleticism and hustle; but it was only four games, its hard to know.

I think Delgado's developed to the point where he's now at least an average first baseman. Not that he's ever going to make us forget Keith Hernandez. He basically learned the position at the major league level, beginning in 1997 (prior to that he had 79 minor league games at 1B, all in 1995, and about 30 game as 1B in Toronto while DHing and watching Olerud.)

as for EA MVP 2k5, i'm sure it will have all the goodies as last year's did -- if you're looking for a good site, check out www.mvpmods.com -- some great mod files you can add into the PC version of the game (rosters, modified stadiums, modified player faces, bats, etc ..) --

i created a roster of about 200 players from the 50s-80s (and the odd 90s) with last year's version, but i'm still trying to locate the disc since i moved -- i scanned all players in from baseball cards, edited in photoshop and inserted in the file -- looks very sharp in-game, if i find the disc, i will be happy to send the file along to whoever wants it -- simply load the file and the players will show up in the FA list -- great for a fantasy draft --

alright, i've ranted enough about a video game, but i am a baseball vid. game junkie so ... --

Oh, the unfortunate last name of King's co-author ... O'nan. Ugh. Or do you wacky sabrmetkids not know what onanism is? Having a "King-Onan" book is really, really problematic from an ethical standpoint. ALthough, in a weird, prudish, Catholic school way (12 years!), the title of the book, "Faithful" really works with the authors' names.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=1950727
Yankees resign Tanyon Sturze for $850,000 (comm) and scroll to bottom of page.

According to the EA website, MVP 2005 now includes not only AAA and AA teams, but single-A clubs. But only High-A, so no Lansing Lugnuts.

Good grief.

give it another year, the lugnuts will be in there --

haha --

You're thinking about the game show where the siblings sat in the cars, and the winning team had to solve a rebus to win the grand prize, which was usually a trip for the whole family to Walt Disney World. It aired in the late 80s for a couple of seasons. What was the name of that show?

I believe the show in question was called Kid Street. I'm kind of ashamed that I actually remember that.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1951346
Espn.com is reporting that the Dodgers has inked J.D. Drew. $55 mill over 5 years. COMN for the link.

As much as I hate to say it, what got me into advanced baseball statistics, beyond say, what you list on the back of a card (I was always a fan of plate patience and XBH, especially 2Bs), was reading Rob Neyer on ESPN.com

Now I'll just go sit in the corner.

I'm loving this reminiscence about baseball and stats. I guess for me stats and mathematics came first. Then, on May 28, 1977, my life changed forever, when my uncle took me to my first game. The Jays beat the Angels 6-4; Jesse Jefferson won, Wayne Simpson lost, and Pete Vuckovich picked up the save. I was in love with the game. But as my interest grew, I realized that this game could involve endless hours fiddling with numbers.

I became a Junior Jay as soon as I could, and when I was old enough, I'd go to games with whatever friend would go with me. I'd get there early, buy a program, hot dog, drink, and be ready for the lineup announcements. Once the game started I would not leave my seat until the last pitch, pen in hand, making sure I scored the game right. After a while, I had enough of a sample size to examine how the players had performed at the games I went to. Alfredo Griffin had quite a good average in those games (somewhere around .350!).

I used to try to create baseball sims with my best friend (and fellow baseball nut). Some were pretty raw. I remember taking a huge green matress and calling it the green monster and we would draft teams from baseball cards and use a dice as the ball and swing the card for the hitter. Or we'd take bits of paper and toss them into a box. The outcome of the play would be on the piece of paper and we'd score it that way. No matter how crude the game we would score it and keep stats.

In 1981, I had another watershed moment. I purchased a board game called Strat-O-Matic. I can see its shortcomings now, but back then in the eyes of an 11 year old it was the bomb!!! My friend and I would spend hours in a steaming hot cottage playing, keeping track of stats, razzing each other with our own walk-off play-by-play calls. Our parents and the rest of the kids at the resort thought we were nuts, and we knew we were, but we didn't care, we were livin' the dream.

In 1986, I discovered Thomas Boswell's Total Average, published in Inside Sports every February or March. It was another step up to me. A way of separating the truly good hitters from the ones with all the window dressing numbers that covered up their flaws. Total Average has been kind of left in the dust, with less emphasis on stolen bases today, but at the time it felt revolutionary.

This game is a wonderful life-long learning experience. I've been at it for over 25 years and I still feel like a rookie with a lot to learn. Sure, there are other sports that are faster, maybe 'more exciting', but no sport is deeper and richer than baseball. You could spend 10 lifetimes at it and you still wouldn't know all there is to know, nor would you want to.

Is there any other sport where a team could come back from the equivalent of a 10-0 deficit after 6 innings? Absolutely not, because they're all regulated by the clock. But, I watched it happen on June 4, 1989 when the Jays stormed back to win 13-11 in 12 in a crazy game at Fenway (look it up on Retrosheet). Timelessness is bliss! That very quality lends itself to the endless analysis we all seem to enjoy conducting on behalf of this great game. Whether it's questioning the manager on this move or that move, or using reams of info to debate who the GM should go out and get, no game is more analysed than this one.

The Internet of course is another step up for us baseball junkies. Da Box, MLB.com, Retrosheet, Baseball-Reference allow for at the fingertips info that fuels debates all over the web. I tell you, it just keeps getting better. What's next? I can't wait...

Regarding Sam Constentino, his analysis for baseball on the score was pathetic, his knowledge was about equal to that of Faulds but Faulds presents it in a much smoother more enjoyable tone.
Maybe they can get a FOX guy, anyone is better than Constentino

You're thinking about the game show where the siblings sat in the cars, and the winning team had to solve a rebus to win the grand prize, which was usually a trip for the whole family to Walt Disney World. It aired in the late 80s for a couple of seasons. What was the name of that show?

I believe the show in question was called Kid Street. I'm kind of ashamed that I actually remember that.

You may be ashamed to remember that, Brian W., but I personally am ashamed to have forgotten! It came right at the tail end of the golden age of Canadian game shows, just as Definition, Supermarket Sweeps and Bumper Stumpers were ending their fine runs.

DeMarco, out of curiosity, do you post on the MLB board as well?

Christopher,

I do not post on the MLB boards.

However if you are implying something or just trying to be smart, please come out and say it.

Demarco, I'm not trying to be smart. Not sure if you COMNed or not, but the post I linked to was word for word the same as one you posted here a couple hours earlier. I didn't think they were done by the same person (your insights here are far more rationale), just struck me as odd, that's all.

Cheers

No Problem Christopher, sorry for the confusion. I've just heard some negative things here about people that post on the MLB boards and wasn't sure what you were getting at.

Christopher,

I just checked your link, he must have copied and pasted my post, there is no way that could be a co-incidence.

Ah, the old how did you get into stats stuff.

For me it was after a game in '83 iirc where Griffen's consecutive games streak ended after he pinch ran and scored the winning run. If he was out he would've been in the field the next inning and would have officially been 'in the game' for purposes of the streak. Afterwards I went to the library and went looking for baseball books to better understand what happened. I found the '82 Abstract (the first widely published James abstract and the only one I'm missing outside of the early ones) and the rest is history. I've got a degree in stats now, did the stats for the university of Guelph baseball team for a few years, almost got a job with Stats Inc back in '92 (thank god I didn't or I'd have been laid off in '94 and stuck in the US). Now I play with the Lahman database for fun.

For Mike Green and Magpie, especially. When I was 10, my parents wanted me to go to summer camp for 4 weeks. Of course I refused, in part because there would be no baseball news at all; not even the Toronto Star. The compromise was that if I went, I could get the weekly Sporting News mailed to me each week I was there. Well, that was great! Full Major League stats and stories and Minor League too

When I got back home, the first thing I did was work out a subscription so I could get it every week during the year. I subscribed for years, until their focus got distracted into other sports and the minor league reports were diminshed. Luckily, I found Baseball America

I found out about SABR from an article in the Sporting News and immediately joined. That's where I learned about Bill James

I have mentioned before here that baseball fans today don't have any idea how lucky they are to have so much information available to them. I'm really close to retiring and people ask me what I plan to do to keep myself occupied. "No Problem", I say, with a smile on my face. I have lots of reading to do

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/news/tor_news.jsp?ymd=20041222&content_id=925071&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp
The mailbag is up.
COMN

Thanks, csimon.

One more story. My family lived in Europe for a year in the mid-70s. We did not have access to the New York Times, so our sole source of baseball news was the "International Herald Tribune". Dry times, indeed.