The M's Keep signing Hitters in a Pitcher's ball park.

I wonder if the Jays would have any interest in Bucky Jacobsen.

He hit .312/.422/.661 at AAA this year and .275/.335/.500 in Seattle in 160 ABs. He's 29 now, but he's a potential big bat at DH/1B for a cheap salary.

Although perhaps the M's want to keep him as a DH.

Gizzi was a 3B at USC, right?

Surely he can beat out Vinny (Vidi, Vici) Castilla and start the season next to Cris Guzman for the now-departing-Washington National Airport Once-and-Future Expos?

I assume you still need hitters to play baseball, even in a pitchers' park. If anything you should try to get medium end pitchers who give up lots of fly balls on the cheap and get good hitters.

Ryan Franklin, v2003. But that was with the incomparable Mike Cameron in CF, among other things . . .

My impression is that Jacobsen is a "fan favourite" at Safeco, so the M's would be reluctant to part with him unless they sign Delgado, leaving Bucky without a position (except as the centre on the M's intra-mural hoops team). The difference between him and Sexson is not $12 million, and the M's would have been wise to upgrade in the outfield instead of at 1B/DH, but that's not exactly news, either.

Weren't the D-Backs making noise about signing Delgado and moving Sexson to LF? Any chance he could handle Safeco's LF?

Sexson in the OF? He got hurt swinging a bat. Not once, but twice. I can't imagine even the Mariners being so clueless as to risk Sexson in the field. It would make more sense for the M's to sign Ordonez instead of Delgado, trade Winn and/or Ibanez (there is a limited market for them, admittedly), and go with Sexson/Jacobson at 1B/DH, with Bucky doing most of the work in the field.

I would have thought Hudson was worth a lot more than they got.

Judging by the reaction, A fan isn't pleased with this deal.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1947892
So, to recap, if the link above does not work: The A's send Tim Hudson to the Braves. But not for Marcus Giles, heavens no. They get Juan Cruz -- THE Juan Cruz! -- Dan Meyer, and Charles Thomas. That is an absolute terrible trade for the A's, just terrible. They'd have been better off letting Hudson walk. But I can't wait to hear all the saber-geeks extol the virtues of Juan Cruz.

As I said in the other thread, this is not a terrible trade for the A's but it's a really underwhelming one and the deal has significant risk.

I'm speaking as a fan, not as an "analyst." I'm pissed the A's couldn't have done more than this for someone as good as Hudson. Oh, well. Could be worse. Could be raining.

(Looks out window.)

Oh, crap. It is raining!

I like my White Sox trade better.

/please don't flame me

I was JUST about to post, "The only rumoured packaged this one beats is Moffatt's."

But I've got a king-sized flamer at my disposal! Your trade stunk, too. (No offense.)

Oh, even better, Thomas.

I was JUST about to post, "The only rumoured packaged this one beats is Moffatt's."

I wouldn't trade McCarthy straight up for these three guys. But we already all know that I'm higher on him than anyone on the planet who isn't a blood relative.

Your trade stunk, too. (No offense.)

Yeah, but that's not what I said. I just said it was better than this one. Yeah, yeah, raw sewage is better than toxic waste, I know...

The Hudson signing and the rumoured move of Orlando Hernanez to Boston (to join Boomer Wells) would make a Randy Johnson to New York trade a mortal lock, even if/when the Yankees cave and overpay the D-Backs by half.

One thing this trade means (as stated at Rotoworld) is that this all but guarantees that Bobby Kielty will be non-tendered. Wouldn't it be funny if the Jays signed him? :)

One thing this trade means (as stated at Rotoworld) is that this all but guarantees that Bobby Kielty will be non-tendered. Wouldn't it be funny if the Jays signed him?

Sure, it'd be funny, but not "ha-ha" funny.

Sure, it'd be funny, but not "ha-ha" funny.

What if they signed Koch too? :)

OK, now THAT would be "ha-ha" funny.

Seen on Rotoworld:

Placido Polanco is an appealing choice at second base, but a source said his asking price has gone up in recent days. Two other second-base candidates, Cleveland's Ronnie Belliard and Baltimore's Jerry Hairston Jr., will become free agents next week, if, as expected, they aren't tendered a contract offer by their teams.

We could really have used someone like Hairston last year to bat at the top of the order against LHP.

I'm pissed the A's couldn't have done more than this

Jays fans feel your pain. We said goodbye to a great one and don't even get draft picks.

I'm no stathead, Gitz, only an observer -- the A's seem to like Dan Meyer better than Edwin Jackson, and Cruz does have a tremendous arm. Oakland should get several cost-effective years out of three players, two of whom look pretty special, in exchange for one year of a potentially unhappy camper.

Meyer could make it a win-win deal eventually, but the A's 2005 odds are a lot longer today.

So, to recap, if the link above does not work: The A's send Tim Hudson to the Braves. But not for Marcus Giles, heavens no. They get Juan Cruz -- THE Juan Cruz! -- Dan Meyer, and Charles Thomas. That is an absolute terrible trade for the A's, just terrible. They'd have been better off letting Hudson walk. But I can't wait to hear all the saber-geeks extol the virtues of Juan Cruz.

From what I've read, Dan Meyer is a pretty decent pitcher. He's a big lefty who gets lots of K's, and doesn't give up a lot of walks or hits. What's not to like?

Thomas and Cruz are not star material, but I don't think anyone arouned here would be complaining about getting them. Thomas looks like a Reed Johnson clone, while Cruz could end being their primary righthanded setup man next year.

This is a good trade for both teams.

'We said goodbye to a great one and don't even get draft picks.'

I think it's pretty safe to say now it was a mistake not to offer arb. I wouldn't have done it because I didn't see things breaking like this - but it never would have gotten that far and they could be sitting on a couple of picks.

it was a mistake not to offer arb

Are you kidding? Carlos would have jumped at it in a heartbeat. Remember, if the Jays come in too low, the arbitrator has to pick Delgado's number. So there's no way he would have gotten the maximum pay cut, and my guess is the least he would have cost -- if the Jays settled or won the hearing -- would be $16 million. Then he'd have a no-trade as a 10-and-5 guy, so you've only delayed his inevitable departure for a year and paid well above market price.

http://me.woot.net
Well above market price? Not the way this market is headed...

I'm not sure if I can agree with you Coach...Sexson just signed for 4 years and 50 million...I gotta believe Carlos will at least sign a 4 year deal at 13 million...so say 4/52...now to equal 4/52 next offseason after signing a 16 million dollar deal with the Jays for 2005, he'd have to sign at least a 3 year/36 million dollar deal...Is this likely?...probably, but I wouldn't say its anymore likely than 60%...he'd be a year old...this market seems to be extraordinarily high...and that's taking the risk of injuries, etc...if I was David Sloane and had to advise my client as to whether to accept a 4/52 or a 1/16, I think I'd choose the former

In the end, its how much money you've made over your career, not what your year to year salary is

I agree, in hindsight not offering Arb. was a mistake...not that I particularly fault J.P. tho as it was a very tough decision to make and no one thought the market would be this high

No way I'd want to pay 16 million for Carlos in 2005 and be in the same position a year from now. Not offering arbitration was the only sane decision a GM with a 53 million dollar payroll could have made.

If Carlos had been coming off another monster year instead of a down year, it might have been a decent gamble to offer arb, knowing that someone was going to offer a huge multi-year deal.

Jays fans, in a way, are both more qualified and less qualified to judge the Hudson trade. They are more so, because they can be more objective about it. But they are less so, because they can be more objective about it.

Huh?

What I mean is, if the Jays traded Roy Halladay for three players of this calibre, most people would reflexively say, "That's it?" Objectivity takes a holiday when it's one of your own. That's all I'm doing right. A reactionary, "Crud, that blows." When Halladay gets moved in three years because the Jays can't afford him, you'll know how A's fans feel right now.

Well lets put it this way: How much are those draft picks worth?

It's hard to tell because you can't buy or sell them on the open market. But I can't see them being worth more than $2 million. Even that is pushing it; if you could buy/sell them, they might not even go for $1 million.

Are you going to risk having Delgado get $20 million in arbitration for the chance to get a $1 million asset? The chances of Delgado accepting arbitration have to be pretty low for me to take that risk.

When Halladay gets moved in three years because the Jays can't afford him, you'll know how A's fans feel right now.

Gee, Gizzi, as an Expos fan I have no idea what you're going through right now.

With all due respect, Coach -- and it's rare that I disagree with you -- if Cruz was so special, why has he already been traded three times? I don't mean to summon the gruesome spectre of Bruce Chen, but that's my gut reaction to Cruz: a right-handed Chen in the making. I do like his arm, but one needs something between the shoulders to make it, unless your name happens to be Rob Dibble, whose brain was apparently a forgotten ingredient.

As for Meyer, sure, he's got talent. But a pitching prospect who actually works out? Hurumph.

Gee, Mike, I sure knew you were an Expos fan. But point taken.

You're forgetting that Carlos might have preferred to stay in Toronto at 16 million over a longer term deal. The way it played out, with the Jays not offering arb and not offering anything like market value, Carlos HAD to test the market. Don't forget he could have accepted arb long before the Sexson signing, therefore not knowing what type of market there was this year for power hitting first basemen.

A few years back this scenario was played out with Greg Maddux. The Braves were sure Maddux wanted to leave and sign a multi-year deal (he was old too and wanted security, so they thought), so they offered him arb. To their surprise, he accepted, and they were forced to trade Millwood for a catching prospect (Johnny Estrada, who's turned out pretty well) to make budget.

And besides: the Expos got ... wait. Who did they get for all those players? Ah! Another point in my favour! Take that, Moffatt!

Are you kidding? I'm the biggest Expos fan in the world. Well, other than Craig.. and Jordan.. and..

And besides: the Expos got ... wait. Who did they get for all those players? Ah! Another point in my favour! Take that, Moffatt!

As for Pedro Martinez, sure, he's got talent. But a pitching prospect who actually works out? Hurumph.

Oh, drat, you and your facts.

Are you kidding? I'm the biggest Expos fan in the world. Well, other than Craig.. and Jordan.. and.. YOUPPI!

You'll note that I did not counter with the fairly voluminous list of pitching prospects who have not panned out.

In all seriousness, who did the Expos get for Wetteland? I remember that deal, in particular, being an absolute theft by the Yankees.

I honestly can't remember. I'm going to look it up.

According to B-ref: Fernando Seguignol.

Wow. What a lousy trade.

If that wasn't bad enough:

April 5, 1995

Traded John Wetteland to the New York Yankees. Received Fernando Seguignol and cash.

Traded Ken Hill to the St. Louis Cardinals. Received Kirk Bullinger, Bryan Eversgerd, and Da Rond Stovall.

April 6, 1995

Traded Marquis Grissom to the Atlanta Braves. Received Tony Tarasco, Esteban Yan, and Roberto Kelly.

Walker left as a FA?

Yeah. That happened 2 or 3 days later, IIRC.

And actually, looking back at the Pedro deal ... the Dodgers got the worst of all those players shipped out, though Delino was certainly a fine ballplayer, and should have been even better.

I remember being LIVID at the Delino for Pedro trade. Go figure. :)

Cruz has now been traded twice, not thrice.

I don't think this is a good trade for the A's, but at least it does have various upsides and doesn't immediately kill their 2005 chances of contention. All three players acquired could be worthwhile pieces right away. Unlikely, but possible.

Tim Hudson immediately becomes the favourite for the 2005 NL Cy Young.
Barry Zito becomes the key to the A's pennant chances.

Doof. My apologies, Jonny. I took "third team" to be "third trade." Us stoopid Americans!

Apology accepted...? I thought it was Canadians who were annoyingly apologetic.

Sexson in the OF? He got hurt swinging a bat. Not once, but twice.

Heh, the Mariners probably would figure that since he never got hurt in the field, what the heck?

I can't wait to hear all the saber-geeks extol the virtues of Juan Cruz.

Juan Cruz is a fine pitcher, and probably the next A's closer. His virtues are apparent. Two plus fastballs - a two-seam and a four-seam that sinks. And he throws a changeup. Because he throws a lot of two-seam fastballs, he has to throw more to the corners, so he goes deeper into counts and walks a few guys.

He's not easy to hit. Duane Ward shows up on his list of most-comparable numbers through age 25, and Cruz (who looks NOTHING like Ward - basically two Juan Cruzes wouldn't look like Ward, as "beanpole" is insufficient to describe Cruz) is actually pretty comparable stats-wise.

I'd be thrilled if Cruz ended up being half the pitcher Ward was. (Not literally, since, as Craig says, is already true: Cruz is, at best, half of Ward's physical status.)

'Are you kidding? Carlos would have jumped at it in a heartbeat. Remember, if the Jays come in too low, the arbitrator has to pick Delgado's number. So there's no way he would have gotten the maximum pay cut, and my guess is the least he would have cost -- if the Jays settled or won the hearing -- would be $16 million. Then he'd have a no-trade as a 10-and-5 guy, so you've only delayed his inevitable departure for a year and paid well above market price.'

I'm not kidding. He's going to get 16 x 4 in this market.

'You're forgetting that Carlos might have preferred to stay in Toronto at 16 million over a longer term deal. The way it played out, with the Jays not offering arb and not offering anything like market value, Carlos HAD to test the market. Don't forget he could have accepted arb long before the Sexson signing, therefore not knowing what type of market there was this year for power hitting first basemen.'

For this to happen he would have to employ the stupidest agent on the planet Earth. Maybe David Sloane is that stupid, I hope for his sake that he isn't.

Like I said, I wouldn't have made the decision to offer it either, because I never thought for one second the market would be this insane.

'A few years back this scenario was played out with Greg Maddux. The Braves were sure Maddux wanted to leave and sign a multi-year deal (he was old too and wanted security, so they thought), so they offered him arb. To their surprise, he accepted, and they were forced to trade Millwood for a catching prospect (Johnny Estrada, who's turned out pretty well) to make budget.'

Funny how having star players works out isn't it? I don't remember any bad blood between Atlanta and Maddux concerning any team leaks about Maddux's status at the trade deadline either. Also, Maddux had Glavine/Smoltz and Mazzone in Atlanta - his pitching buddies and the best coach in the business....

Hudson Gone to Braves.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/news_story.asp?id=108294

For:

Charles Thomas and pitchers Juan Cruz and Dan Meyer.

(Double post so you can COMN).

CaramonLS,

Did you even read this thread before you posted? News of the trade was posted here three hours ago.

Listened to the Billy Beane press conference and he called Tim Hudson this generation's Dave Stewart.

He also said Meyer would get a chance to win a starting spot next season.

Gammons likes the trade for both teams and has high praise for both GMs. His take on the Dodgers losing out on Hudson:

L.A. GM Paul DePodesta couldn't get a third team involved, as the Blue Jays wouldn't deal Ted Lilly and Alexis Rios for Edwin Jackson and Hee Seop Choi.

If that's really who Beane wanted, he might still be pursuing Lilly -- don't shoot the messenger, Gitz. :)

I think the dodgers must be really disappointed, beltre was their best hitter by far. I don't think kent can play third base, watching the playoffs he did not come up with the ball smoothly and his instincts were gone. Seems funny, you plug a hole with one finger(kent), and water flows at a faster pace from a different hole (beltre and finley). And when it rains it pours, as they lost out on hudson too.

I think this opens the door for a hinske trade to the dodgers, and they will probably overpay to get delgado to replace some of the offence lost with beltre leaving. I just can't see anyone out there they could sign to replace beltre besides delgado, beltran, or take a risk on someone like ordonez.

You're forgetting that Carlos might have preferred to stay in Toronto at 16 million over a longer term deal.

Another reason he would have gone that way. I think that he's going to do better than 32 HR and 99 RBI in 2005, and I imagine Delgado himself is positive he'll have a better season next year. He would then be hitting the FA market coming off a more impressive year.

I think this opens the door for a hinske trade to the dodgers, and they will probably overpay to get delgado to replace some of the offence lost with beltre leaving. I just can't see anyone out there they could sign to replace beltre besides delgado, beltran, or take a risk on someone like ordonez.

Why do you think that the Dodgers would want Hinske? He didn't hit for any power last year in SkyDome, and you think the Dodgers would figure he'd hit in Chavez? That doesn't make much sense to me.

As for Beane wanting Lilly, whoever said that, I think Beane's interest isn't in Lilly, but rather he wanted him to be part of the deal to keep LA happy. I can't believe he'd trade for a guy whose expensive years/free agency are on the doorstep.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/ny-sprandy1217,0,3877851.story?coll=ny-homepage-big-pix
The Yankees finally got Randy Johnson. COMN. 3 way deal involving Dodgers. The link is for Newsday, I also saw it on the bottom line on ESPN.

The Yankees would receive the 41-year-old Johnson in the deal while sending pitcher Javier Vazquez and two minor-league prospects, catcher Dioner Navarro and third baseman Eric Duncan, to the Dodgers, according to an Arizona source. The Dodgers would send pitchers Brad Penny and Yhency Brazoban and outfielder/first baseman Shawn Green to Arizona to complete the deal.

This is the deal from above link.

Why do you think that the Dodgers would want Hinske?

It's a different issue, it's not about hinske being unable to hit for power, it is his inability to make consistent contact. I bet that if his average was aroung .276 he would have around 25 hrs. He can hit with power when he makes contact.

I think the dodgers might be interested because as of now they don't have a 3rd baseman, and hinske (assuming he bounces back) fits into the dodgers sabr. idealogy. Say a hinske for choi trade makes sense for both clubs, assuming the dodgers go after delgado.

I think I should clarify. The article states that there is an agreement in principle and that a "few details" need to be worked out but are not believed to be large enough to thwart a possible deal. So it's not official, but pretty darn close.

There is a Randy Johnson Trade thread now up.

I think the dodgers might be interested because as of now they don't have a 3rd baseman, and hinske (assuming he bounces back) fits into the dodgers sabr. idealogy. Say a hinske for choi trade makes sense for both clubs, assuming the dodgers go after delgado.

I don't know, it seems to me that he doesn't even walk much anymore. I think he's messed up to the point that he's not a smart bet any longer. JP's stuck with him unless Kenny Williams does him a favour or something like that.

It'd be quite a jump from A ball, but Eric Duncan is, er was, the Yankees top prospect and he is now the top 3B in the LA farm system. If they acquire a 3B, it will be a one-year stopgap guy like Tony Batista.

sabr idealogy

Capitalism, marxism, feminism, saberism. Anything we can do to make baseball a part of the high school curriculum!

""Capitalism, marxism, feminism, saberism. Anything we can do to make baseball a part of the high school curriculum!""

Hey Mike, think you could pull a few strings at U of Waterloo??

A buddy of mine goes to Western, and he tells of a sports economics class where Moneyball is a course text. ?!?!?!

I might transfer.

As for Beane wanting Lilly, whoever said that, I think Beane's interest isn't in Lilly, but rather he wanted him to be part of the deal to keep LA happy. I can't believe he'd trade for a guy whose expensive years/free agency are on the doorstep.

Ummmmm, didn't Beane already make his intentions clear regarding Lilly? I won't shoot you, Coach, because I'm a pathetic pacifist, but I will send evil starts to the bozo who thought the A's wanted Lilly back. They, and the paying fans, couldn't wait to get rid of him.

Still, that reminds me ... Ummmmmmm ... OK, so maybe, MAYBE, I was wrong about Lilly. I still think he's something of a flake, and he was pretty mediocre for parts of 2004, but ... mmmmmmm ... crow. Yummy!

A buddy of mine goes to Western, and he tells of a sports economics class where Moneyball is a course text. ?!?!?!

I know the prof that course. Great guy.

I often use Moneyball-ish examples when discussing things like sunkc costs, opportunity costs, etc. to HBA and MBA students. I don't think I could get away with using Moneyball as a course textbook. :)

I meant I know the prof for that course. But you knew that.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1947932
Sorry, Caino, no strings to pull at Waterloo. Maybe you could suggest the evaluation of infield defence as a math or engineering problem.

Gitz, COMN for Gammons' evaluation of the Hudson deal and for a pretty clear summary of where the A's are at. I agree with Gammons. It's a good trade for both teams. I happen to think that the A's got the better of the deal; Hudson struck out only 4.9/9 last year, and there is a risk of significant deterioration. But, with Mazzone's record, you'd have to say that the risk is relatively modest.

What Beane has achieved is a nicely balanced teams with no holes. If Chavez stays healthy, they should be right there.