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Well, you play that Tarantella
And the hounds begin to roar
The boys all go to hell
And then the Cubans hit the floor


The Winter Meetings start today, though there's been no shortage of action beforehand. Check out Peter Gammons' latest for a nice summary of the buzz, including the increasingly insane Arizona Diamondbacks preparing to ink Russ Ortiz to a 4-year, $34 million contract. I don't ever want to hear Ortiz or Troy Glaus complain to anyone that they want to "play for a winner" after signing rich long-term deals with a 111-loss club.

And then there's the Jays, and their reliable and open-minded local press coverage.

From the always cheerful Toronto Star:

Geoff Baker: Jays' entree may be leftovers

"'I don't see how those guys are going to get anybody the way things are going,' a member of one American League East club said of the Blue Jays as team executives streamed out of rental cars and checked into the hotel for meetings that begin in earnest today. 'They're going to be scrounging for leftovers with a whole lot of others.' ...

"This has suddenly become no ordinary set of winter meetings for a Blue Jays entourage that arrived yesterday with their future looking as cloudy as ever."

Richard Griffin: Jays need new free-agent strategy

"Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks exploded all those perceptions of a buyers' landscape, signing third baseman Troy Glaus to a four-year, $45 million deal early yesterday. That's huge for Delgado. Glaus batted .251, with 18 homers and 42 RBIs, and had shoulder surgery on May 21. And he has had only a couple of prime-time offensive seasons. The Jays' ex-first baseman could not have received better news."

And from the always-on-the-mark Bob Elliott:

Jays make Rios available and Jays look at Clark for first base:

"The Blue Jays are attempting to deal their former No. 1 pick to the Washington Nationals for first baseman Nick Johnson. Jim Bowden, new general manager of the Nationals, and Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi have discussed a Rios-for-Johnson swap. ....

"Another bouncing ball for the Jays is an attempt to acquire outfielder/first baseman Craig Wilson of the Pittsburgh Pirates, a former Jays minor-leaguer. ....

"This isn't the first time Ricciardi has attempted to acquire Johnson, nor is it the first time, he has tried to move a former No. 1 pick. In the spring of 2002, he tried to deal Vernon Wells to the Texas Rangers for Rangers right-hander Colby Lewis and third baseman Hank Blalock. ...

"The Blue Jays will be looking at New York Yankees free agent first baseman Tony Clark as a replacement for Carlos Delgado. ...

"The Blue Jays' game plan was to sign Minnsota Twins free agent Corey Koskie of Anola, Man., and have him play third and move Eric Hinske to first base. It now appears that Koskie will stay with the Minnesota Twins or land with the Detroit Tigers or Seatttle Mariners. He won't be coming to Toronto."

One or two of these may even be accurate: the interest in Wilson makes sense, since he'd be a fine stopgap solution at first base (paging Carlos Garcia!). And there's talk elsewhere that Koskie really would prefer to stay in Minnesota and is hoping the Twins will extend him a no-trade clause. I'm much less confident in Tony Clark becoming a Jay, although if he did, at least Vernon Wells would have one of the game's sharpest union representatives to tutor him. This is the first I've heard of the Wells-Blalock deal, though frankly, that wouldn't have been a bad trade for either club. And on the final count, all I'll say is that if the Jays really do deal Rios for Johnson, which I extremely doubt, you'll see a commentary from me that reviewers will call "blistering."

The thing is, there's a great deal of sound and fury at the Winter Meetings, folks -- this is baseball's equivalent of Oscar Night -- so remember that much of it signifies nothing. Wait for the official AP story and the press conference. In short, don't believe tha hype.
Jays Roundup: December 10 | 188 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Joe - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:32 AM EST (#10258) #
http://me.woot.net
The focus in the Star is that the Jays suddenly find themselves in a situation they didn't plan for - other teams' management is inexplicably signing a lot of players for very big contracts, seemingly driving up the cost of all free agents. It's true that Ricciardi and co.'s plan must change: this off season does not feature the buyer's market that all of us were predicting.
_Moffatt - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:34 AM EST (#10259) #
I wasn't predicting a buyer's market. In fact I said y'all were nuts for saying Clement would go for $6. :)

Still, though, I didn't expect this. Not by a long shot.
_Pumped 4/05 - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:43 AM EST (#10260) #
I'd like to know why Elliot and Rutsey are stating that Koskie will not be coming to Toronto, as neither one backs it up with any kind of source. Maybe they know something we don't, but I haven't seen anything anywhere else indicating that Koskie is leaning towrads one team or another. The last I heard, he was becoming very frustrated with the Twins, and Ryan had stated that it didn't look good in terms of bringing him back.
Pistol - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:46 AM EST (#10261) #
Besides being a 1B that wouldn't cost much I don't see why Tony Clark would be of any interest.

The focus in the Star is that the Jays suddenly find themselves in a situation they didn't plan for - other teams' management is inexplicably signing a lot of players for very big contracts, seemingly driving up the cost of all free agents.

I still think this is a good thing for the Jays because I disagree that it seemingly drives up the cost for everyone.

There's only so much money out there, and there's still lots and lots of players. While the Jays won't likely be able to compete for the big fish, I think they could end up with many bargains before things are over. One just has to be patient.
_Sky - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:50 AM EST (#10262) #
what about the jays jumping into the tim hudson sweepstakes. I mean if the best offer that beane has is giles + (top pitching prospect, cant remember the name), why not throw our hat in and offer hudson + one of mcgown/rosario/bush. And its not as if Hudson is making a ton of money for a guy of his quality and u know how beane and JP love making deals together. I guess the question is if we can resign hudson to a long term deal but I mean, he's makin 7 mill. Sure spend 7 on him than 7 on clement / koskie.
_dp - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:53 AM EST (#10263) #
The more I think about Rios/Johnson, the less I like it. Concerned about Rios not hitting for power? I am, but I'd like to see if he'll develop. With Johnson, though, there's a similar concern- he slugged .398 last year, and is at .418 for his career. I realize last year might be due to injuries, but that doesn't excuse it- his wrist injury keeps coming back. As much as I think it's a good time to buy low, it doesn't seem like Bowden's giving him away. Coming up, Johnson was reportedly gifted with the glove. Anyone know if thats played out in the majors? I like having Rios in the OF- between him and Wells, they've got good range. Plus Johnson will make more money quicker.

I'm curious what Pittsburgh would want for Wilson. They've got Huber, who will eventually moved from catcher and it doesn't seem like they've ever believed in Wilson. He strikes out a ton, doesn't balance it with that many walks, acceptable but not exceptional, so doesn't seem like a JP type. Wilson's 28, so I think you'd have to look at him as more than a stopgap, especially with no one overwhelming coming up to play 1b.

If the Jays go into '05 with Hinske playing 1B it'll be bad...
_Daryn - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:54 AM EST (#10264) #
the worst thing to do would be signing an over the hill type (thinking Moises Alou) to a long expensive contract that ties up the future...

I'd rather go with what we have than hamstring 2006 as well...

This year's signings should be 'high-risk, high-reward' guys, like Zaun and co... hope a couple pan out, and fill some holes, cut the rest and sign a $$$ guy next year.
_Ryan Day - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:54 AM EST (#10265) #
Unfortunately, I'm afraid the Jays are looking more cheap than thrifty. While there are certainly a lot of wacky contracts being handed out, the Jays appear to be too far on the opposite side of the fence: Offering Delgado all of $6 million for two years is ridiculous. As Griffin points out, that's only a million more per year than they offered Escobar.

Being frugal is one thing, but if the Jays want to sign quality players, they'll have to pay realistic prices.
_Daryn - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:55 AM EST (#10266) #
If the Jays go into '05 with Hinske playing 1B it'll be bad...

I don't mind Hinske at 1st in '05.. give him one last chance to develop... but THIS Hinske at 1st in '06 is REALLY BAD.
_Dunny - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:58 AM EST (#10267) #
"I'm much less confident in Tony Clark becoming a Jay, although if he did, at least Vernon Wells would have one of the game's sharpest union representatives to tutor him."

LMAO

Thanks, I needed a good laugh

It's begining to look like we are now the Milwaukee Brewers of the American League. Jp better pull something out of his hat fast.
_dp - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:58 AM EST (#10268) #
But if you're going to accept the risk of not getting any offense out of 1B, why not do it with a decent/experienced glove man there? Can Hinske play 1B well enough to anchor a young infield? I'm not saying he can't, but we don't know.
_Moffatt - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:00 AM EST (#10269) #
I agree with dp. As I just mentioned in an earlier thread, I don't get the appeal of Johnson. There are better choices out there, unless Bowden is going to give him away for really cheap.
_Dunny - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:00 AM EST (#10270) #
I don't like the Nick Johnson rumours..

I like Nick the stick but jesus christ straight up for Rios?

That's knee jerk IMO
_MatO - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:01 AM EST (#10271) #
I'm not advocating trading Rios but sometimes we need to look at him through the eyes of maybe a Pirate's fan (is there such a thing as a National's fan). This might be a comment from such a fan:

"Rios is one of those toolsy guys. I don't know why we want a guy with no power (his highest minor league HR total was 11, and last year hit 4) and who never walks."

Honestly, after 6 pro seasons I still have no idea as to what we have in Rios. On the other hand, I don't believe in trading a cheap asset in Rios for more expesive ones like Wilson or Johnson while creating another hole in the OF.
_R Billie - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:01 AM EST (#10272) #
The thing about Hudson is that it would be a sound move to trade a couple of top prospects plus Orlando for him but ONLY if you know you can sign him to a contract beyond this season.

If I had to choose $10-$12 mil a year on Hudson or the same amount on a combo of Koskie/Clement I would certainly choose the former. But as of now there's no reason to think that Hudson would do a long term deal with Toronto no questions asked.

Also I agree with the notion that Beane will not compromise the A's chances of contention by trading Hudson. He'll want back someone who can contribute this year. I don't think Orlando would be enough. It would probably take Wells to make it happen which doesn't make sense for the Jays.
_shill - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:04 AM EST (#10273) #
Given the market situation... Jays are certainly in tough. Time for JP to get creative. How about Halliday & Hinske & Rosario to the Rangers for Soriano (2B), Texeira (3B), and Adrian Gonzalez (1B)?

Then the Jays could then use O-Dog, Hill or Adams + some of their minor league pitching depth to make a run at Tim Hudson.

I just don't think Koskie and Clement are are worth pursuing any further in this market... JP has got to work some magic via the trade route.
_jsoh - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:06 AM EST (#10274) #
Offering Delgado all of $6 million for two years is ridiculous.

Is there a relatively objective reference for Griffin's assertion that the last offer to Delgado was 2/12MM?

Last I heard (and its not like my ear is firmly pressed to the ground), the offer was 3/21MM.
_Jordan - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:09 AM EST (#10275) #
The word is that Beane is not allowing other teams the usual post-trade 72-hour window to negotiate an extension with Hudson -- either you take him as is, or you don't take him at all. Beane reportedly doesn't want to sacrifice three days' worth of activity at the meetings waiting for a decision. So the list of teams who'll trade value for a year of Hudson (and who'll take their chances after the season ends) is slim. The Cardinals, Orioles and Dodgers seem to be the leading contenders. The Jays don't seem like a good fit.
_Ryan Day - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:11 AM EST (#10276) #
http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2004/12/10/776711.html
Is there a relatively objective reference for Griffin's assertion that the last offer to Delgado was 2/12MM?

Bob Elliot also references the Delgado offer, and includes a quote from Godfrey to back it up. COMN.
_dp - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:15 AM EST (#10277) #
Shill- you don't want Soriano at 2B. He's horrible. JP has set the Jays up to be a team with great starting pitching and a mediocre offense. The starting pitching doesn't look as good without Hudson at 2B. Hudson->Soriano is just about the biggest defensive downgrade possible.
_Rich - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:15 AM EST (#10278) #
There's probably not much point in getting too wound up about what the Jays will, or more likely, won't get in the Free Agent market. If JP has any chance of duplicating the low-budget success of Oakland and Minnesota, it won't be until his own crop of draftees fully arrives (which won't be this summer). Sure, Clement and Koskie, not to mention dumping Hinske, would qualify as a great winter in my view, but I'm not holding my breath. It's not as though JP has a wonderful track record with free-agents that didn't come from the bargain barrel anyway.
_MatO - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:15 AM EST (#10279) #
Am I remembering correctly that Nick Johson has had multiple wrist injuries (I know last year it was a bad hop) including missing an entire season?
_Mosely - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:29 AM EST (#10280) #
Am I remembering correctly that Nick Johson has had multiple wrist injuries (I know last year it was a bad hop) including missing an entire season?

Last year Johnson missed the first half of the season with a back injury. I believe he spent time on the DL for something else as well, before taking the liner in the face.
Dave Till - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:33 AM EST (#10281) #
There are times I feel sorry for the Jays' front office, and this is one of them. The Arizona Diamondbacks appear to have gone insane.
Named For Hank - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:37 AM EST (#10282) #
And on the final count, all I'll say is that if the Jays really do deal Rios for Johnson, which I extremely doubt, you'll see a commentary from me that reviewers will call "blistering."

Heh. I don't believe this rumor at all, just because it seems so...well, dumb.

Besides, Rios won me the RBI pool half a dozen times last year at the Dome. At the end of the year I was up like four dollars.
_shill - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:39 AM EST (#10283) #
I know dp... I have a real appreciation for O-Dog's talents as well.

It would certainly be a mid-stream change in philosophy... but as they say sometimes desperate times call for desperate measures. Great managers (and leaders) are the ones that take aggressive but calculated risks...the kind that work when they're evaluated with hindsight. IMO JP has to date shown only a real affinity to avoid risk.

Don't get me wrong... his philosophy is solid and will eventually pan out... but he's going to need another 5-6 years to see it. If I'm Ted Rogers I'm just not that patient.

At this point JP's going to have to take some risks and make a little magic to save both Ted's short term revenue stream & his own GM job.
_Jordan - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:43 AM EST (#10284) #
No guesses on the lyrics yet? I thought there'd be at least one fan of this guy lurking out there.
_Scott Levy - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:43 AM EST (#10285) #
Is there any chance of a Rios for Kotchman swap? The Angels need a CF (a position which Rios can play), and the Jays need a 1B. Seems like a good fit, though Anaheim may want more than just Rios.

I'd rather make that deal than Nick Johnson.
_calig23 - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:48 AM EST (#10286) #
"I'm curious what Pittsburgh would want for Wilson. They've got Huber, who will eventually moved from catcher and it doesn't seem like they've ever believed in Wilson."

Huber does not play for the Pirates. You may be thinking of J.R. House.Either way, I'm not sure of the relevancy. Wilson doesn't catch much for the Pirates. Ideally, instead of signing some mediocre vet C in the Henry Blanco mold(as they surely will do), they would allow Wilson to catch full time- both increasing his value as 30 HR-hitting catcher, and allowing them to find a replacement 1B/RF, which should be far easier than finding a catcher. But that would be the logical move, which means the Pirates won't do it.
_dp - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:59 AM EST (#10287) #
http://www.sports-wired.com/players/profile.asp?ID=5728
Huber does not play for the Pirates.

Yeah, my bad- I forgot they inexplicably sent him to the Royals in that deal. Real weird IMO b/c Huber's clearly the better player. If the Jays could get him, say for a young pitcher, they'd be in good sahpe at 1B in a year or two. COMN for stats.
_Scott Levy - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:02 AM EST (#10288) #
Huber was a Mets prospect, not a Pirates prospect.
_Matthew E - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:03 AM EST (#10289) #
they say sometimes desperate times call for desperate measures

The times are not that desperate.

Nothing bad is about to happen to the Jays; they could, if they chose, start the season with the current roster. Plus they have some money to spend.

They have some problems to address, but the best way of doing it is by staying calm and sticking to their guns.

The times are never so desperate that you should turn your back on your best judgment.
_Jabonoso - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:07 AM EST (#10290) #
Thanks Jordan, I did not realize it was still up. Last night i danced Tago until we were sore, trying to get upbeat after the Delgado fiasco...
_Jabonoso - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:08 AM EST (#10291) #
Sorry i meant "tango"
_Jabonoso - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:09 AM EST (#10292) #
anybody can brief as to why the Cubans reference?
_dp - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:09 AM EST (#10293) #
Huber was a Mets prospect, not a Pirates prospect.

Yeah but the Pirates chose to get the 3B they lost in the rule V draft back from the Royals rather than Huber in the Benson deal. Huber, even as a 1B, has great upside.
_shill - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:11 AM EST (#10294) #
I respect that rationale Matthew E, but not all fans are as sophisticated as most that read this blog. Sometimes a little sizzle can go a long way. I like all these guys but seriously... our line-up next year (as of today) could legitimately consist of all of Zaun or Cash, Myers, Hinske, Cat or Crozier, Reed Johnson and a still relatively unproven shortshop.

As the saying goes: That right there.... that is messed up.

It's desperate enough for me.
_Smirnoff - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:12 AM EST (#10295) #
I think the Angels just signed Steve Finley, so they are no longer in the market for a CF.
_Lee - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:13 AM EST (#10296) #
the increasingly insane Arizona Diamondbacks preparing to ink Russ Ortiz to a 4-year, $34 million contract.

I have a feeling that MLB is soon going to have to take over another team in danger of going bankrupt...

Given the market situation... Jays are certainly in tough. Time for JP to get creative. How about Halliday & Hinske & Rosario to the Rangers for Soriano (2B), Texeira (3B), and Adrian Gonzalez (1B)?

This would be my absolute worst nightmare. It would give the Jays the offense they need, but no way in hell should they be even thinking about trading Doc.
_Jordan - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:16 AM EST (#10297) #
One million points to Jabonso, who nailed today's lyrics from Tango Till They're Sore by the inscrutable yet invaluable Tom Waits. I have no idea where the reference to Cubans came from, or to the tarantella, for that matter; I'm not sure Tom knows himself.

Since we can't give out a cash prize for guessing the tango lyric, here's the next best thing:

_Jabonoso - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:19 AM EST (#10298) #
Tarantella is an italian folk dance. I hate Stallone as much as i love Homer Simpson. They represnt how the americans want to be seen and how they are seen by us foreigners...
_Jordan - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:20 AM EST (#10299) #
Oh, and I didn't have any particular reason for using this lyric; I've always found this song, and Rain Dogs in particular, to be among Waits' least comprehensible (and therefore, most favourite) albums. Bone Machine is pretty disturbing too, though.
_Jordan - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:20 AM EST (#10300) #
Yeah, but Kurt Russell rocks, right? :-)
_Ryan B. - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:25 AM EST (#10301) #
It has been said that Wells and Halladay are untouchable in trades. Apparently everyone else can be had. My question is why would you trade Lilly unless you got a real good return for him?
_Wildrose - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:30 AM EST (#10302) #
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/free-agent-wrap-up-the-first-wave/
Tired of Griffins unrelenting vitriol, comm for Aaron Gleemans excellent analysis of the free agent signing frenzy.
Thomas - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:34 AM EST (#10303) #
My question is why would you trade Lilly unless you got a real good return for him?

Well, nobody is suggesting we dump Lilly. You'd want a good return for him regardless. However, he is a free agent after 2005.
_Ryan01 - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:37 AM EST (#10304) #
Lilly's not a free agent until 2006. He's only signed for 2005, but he's still only arbitration eligible the following year
_Ryan01 - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:38 AM EST (#10305) #
That should say: ...until after 2006...
_Donkit R.K. - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:38 AM EST (#10306) #
Daryn ~ "I don't mind Hinske at 1st in '05.. give him one last chance to develop... but THIS Hinske at 1st in '06 is REALLY BAD."

I agree (though I'd greatly prefer a Choi-Colbrunn or *maybe* Choi-Cordero platoon)...
_Lee - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:42 AM EST (#10307) #
It has been said that Wells and Halladay are untouchable in trades. Apparently everyone else can be had. My question is why would you trade Lilly unless you got a real good return for him?

Well, I should certainly hope those two would be untouchable. However, I would also be really disappointed to see Orlando Hudson or Ted Lilly traded unless what we were getting in return was absolutely impossible to pass up. For me, it would have to be a young, top-of-the-rotation starter or big bat, proven at the ML level, but what team would give up either of those? Basically, unless it's fairly obvious that the other GM is nuts (think Jim Bowden or the guy from Arizona), I want to hold on to Lilly and O-Dog as well.
_Pumped 4/05 - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:43 AM EST (#10308) #
God, I can't take this anymore. Something happen already!!!
_Jordan - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:45 AM EST (#10309) #
What the Jays need most, in their situation, is above-average production at below-average prices. Right now, Hudson and Lilly are two of their best examples of that kind of asset, and I can't really see any scenario under which they would deal them away.
_Cory - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:47 AM EST (#10310) #
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1942275
Here's the link for you Pumped04/05 explaining how Koskie would rather take a pay cut than play for another team(ala Blue Jays).
_Lee - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:49 AM EST (#10311) #
What the Jays need most, in their situation, is above-average production at below-average prices. Right now, Hudson and Lilly are two of their best examples of that kind of asset, and I can't really see any scenario under which they would deal them away.

Right. Unless, like I said, the offer is incomprehensibly lopsided in the Jays' favor, they really have to hang on to those guys.
_Ryan B. - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:51 AM EST (#10312) #
I agree that both Hudson and Lilly should remain Jays for next year. My question would be is Orlando Hudson over rated? He is a fantastic fielder, no denying that, but he can't consistently hit or get on base.

Also, how much do you think Lilly will command as a free agent next year if he, say, duplicates the season he had in '04?
_Jordan - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:58 AM EST (#10313) #
is Orlando Hudson over rated?

I don't know; how is he rated? He provides excellent defence (he led all AL second basemen in defensive win shares for the second straight year), he gets on base about 1/3 of the time (and he's improved against LHP), he can run, and he has a little pop. He did all that for close to the league minimum last year ($330K), and even under a long-term deal, he'd cost much less than he produces for a few years yet. I call that terrific value; whether he's overrated or underrated, I couldn't say.

As far as Lilly's future salary is concerned -- well, I sure didn't think Jon Lieber was worth $21M this time last year, so I have no idea what 2006 will bring.
_Ryan01 - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:01 PM EST (#10314) #
Hudson can't consistently hit or get on base? You have mighty high standards for a second baseman. He'll never be a dominant offensive player. (Which is why I don't think he'll get a long term deal any time soon. When there's no chance of getting a VW type payout on the deal then there's no reason to assume the risk of injuries. Arbitration is driven mostly by offense.) But he's a very solid hitter.

Lilly isn't a free agent next year. I don't know where that misconception first started from but it just won't seem to die.
_Donkit R.K. - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:04 PM EST (#10315) #
Hudson has a good chance to put up a .800 OPS (.779 last year) as a 27 (or is it 28?) yr. old 2B next year. Thats worth a spot in almost any lineup, without considering his stellar defense.
_Lee - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:04 PM EST (#10316) #
My question would be is Orlando Hudson over rated? He is a fantastic fielder, no denying that, but he can't consistently hit or get on base.

I don't think so at all. He is a tremendous defensive 2B, which on its own is more than enough for me. He is a reasonable hitter and is improving. As was mentioned earlier, he's also quite cheap, making him a tremendous value.
_Marc - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:06 PM EST (#10317) #
The thing that worries me the most about the Rios rumours is that A) Rios is not really a JP kind of player (low on base, limited power at this point, etc) and B) When JP sours on a player, history shows that he tends to underestimate the value of a player to other GMs. (Quantrill, Izturis, Werth, Phelps, etc.)...
As a result, I highly doubt the Jays will get as much as Rios is worth, should he end up getting traded.
Nick Johnson is not close to being worth Rios (considering upside and potential), nor is Durazo or even Wilson.
Mike Green - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:13 PM EST (#10318) #
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/free-agent-wrap-up-the-first-wave/
COMN for Aaron Gleeman's take on the first-wave of signings. Can't say that I disagree with him.
Named For Hank - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:15 PM EST (#10319) #
I hate Stallone as much as i love Homer Simpson.

I was reading Premiere the other day, and they had an interview with George Clooney, Brad Pitt and Matt Damon, all together, to promote Ocean's Twelve. Matt Damon at one point does an impersonation of Jerry Weintraub, the producer of the film (who was also present at the interview), and the interviewer comments that Damon sounds just like Stallone.

Damon: Do you want to hear our impression of Stallone and Vin Diesel talking to each other?
Pitt: Yeah! Yeah! Yeah!

[Damon and Clooney stand up, face each other, puff out their chests, and say in bad New Yawk accents:]

Damon: I think you're terrific.
Clooney: I think you're terrific.
Damon: I love everything you do.
Clooney: I love everything you do.
Damon: I'm a huge fan of you. I think you're special.
Clooney: I think you're special. [all laugh]
_Lee - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:16 PM EST (#10320) #
Nick Johnson is not close to being worth Rios (considering upside and potential), nor is Durazo or even Wilson.

I can see the argument for Rios over Johnson, but to me Durazo or Wilson would have considerably more value to the Jays, given the makeup of the rest of the team, than does Rios.
_Ryan01 - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:20 PM EST (#10321) #
The biggest difference between Rios and Johnson/Durazo/Wilson is the contract situation. Is 6 more years (3 of them extremely cheap) of Rios more valuable than 1 expensive season of Durazo or 2 of Johnson/Wilson?
Named For Hank - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:27 PM EST (#10322) #
Ryan01 has it: unless we are contending this year, what good would that deal do?
_Lee - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:29 PM EST (#10323) #
Even given the money, I'd trade Rios for Durazo in particular, IF he could be resigned. I just don't see Rios becoming the kind of player that can be a major factor in a team's success, but given the Jays' offense, having someone like Durazo would definitely be huge, and he isn't THAT expensive. Basically, the Jays have a bit of money to spend right now, and I think that upgrading the offense by trading Rios for Durazo and then resigning Durazo for a few more years would be an excellent way to spend a portion of it. Of course if Durazo or someone similar could be had by giving up a lesser player than Rios, then by all means. I don't WANT to get rid of Rios, but if that what it would take to make that sort of deal, I wouldn't have a problem with it at all.
_Pumped 4/05 - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:31 PM EST (#10324) #
NFH, have you given up on this season already? I may be blindly optomistic, but I'd like to think that anything is possible, in any given year.
_the shadow - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:35 PM EST (#10325) #
As the old saying goes "sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make", right now JP has to stay cool and not get caught up in this "feeding frenzy" going on with some of these other teams,stay cool and don't do anything (stupid) just for the sake of doing something. Do as Pistol has suggested, keep your powder dry, then in the cold dark days of January and Feb. pick up some reasonable priced investments that will become available when some of these teams spending all this money now realize they have to let some of their cheaper players go. The main thing is "don't panic"
_Wildrose - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:44 PM EST (#10326) #
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits3?statsId=6642&type=batting
Comm for Wilson's 3 year splits. The Elliott story it should be noted, does not explicably state Rios for Wilson, rather it states the Jays have interest in this player. If he came cheap enough he's not that bad, really crushes lefties and adequate against righties. Hopefully the Pirates want to move him for financial reasons.
_Ducey - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:48 PM EST (#10327) #
http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2004/12/10/776789-ap.html
Hardly worth a mention in the frenzy going on but Mike Nakamura signed on in Japan COMN
_Wildrose - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:49 PM EST (#10328) #
Actually I re-read the story and the enigmatic Elliott is stating Rios for Wilson. This is not a great deal.
_Wildrose - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:52 PM EST (#10329) #
Actually Wilson profiles as what I think Josh Phelps may look like as a hitter at a similar age, sometime in the future.
_Ducey - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:52 PM EST (#10330) #
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/home_MLB.asp?sport=MLB
And just to make sure they keep up their quota of Japanese right handed submarine delivery relievers who can't quite stick in the majors, the Jays are looking at another Japanese reliever. COMN
_Jordan - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:53 PM EST (#10331) #
http://msn.foxsports.com/story/3236040
Matt Clement's price tag just keeps going up: Russ Ortiz is going to get $27M over 3 years from the D'Backs (COMN).
Named For Hank - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 12:57 PM EST (#10332) #
NFH, have you given up on this season already? I may be blindly optomistic, but I'd like to think that anything is possible, in any given year.

Oh, no, far from it. But the Jays are building a team for the future, right, the team that keeps on giving, or at least that's the plan. To get rid of what appears to be a long-term building block for very short-term gain is unacceptable unless the Jays are closing in on a championship.

If we were one or two players away or in the middle of the Wild Card hunt or something, I'd go for a short-term gain like that. But now? Nah.
_Jordan - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 01:01 PM EST (#10333) #
This is too good not to pass on. From levski at Baseball Primer, in a discussion of potential Oakland-Arizona trades:

"Billy Beane is all about exploiting market inefficiencies, and Joe Gariagola Jr. IS a market inefficiency."
Named For Hank - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 01:18 PM EST (#10334) #
Priceless.
_bro__dh - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 01:22 PM EST (#10335) #
I hated the argument on Delgado, plus I think it showed no class. Now we're trading Rios for has-beens. I'm getting ready to declare myself a free agent fan.
_Dunny - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 01:38 PM EST (#10336) #
The D backs are killin this for us...

I think Rios for Wilson is a good deal.

Wilson crushes lefties, hits righties well and is a character.

Give some life to this team, maybe an identity.
_Donkit R.K. - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 01:42 PM EST (#10337) #
Would there be any hope of landing Oliver Perez with Wilson? Even after his incredible year he seems to be generally underrated. Wilson and Perez for Rios and... Bush and Batista? Or, as I would expect, is there no hope for Oliver Perez to move.
_JayFan0912 - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 01:45 PM EST (#10338) #
I can't believe rios will be traded for durazo/nick/wilson or any other schmock. Simply put not only that none of these names are worth rios, but none of these names will make any big difference next year.

Why would you pawn your future, for something of no present value ?

I think the jays were smart in not signing delgado. Just because he was offered only 6 million/2years doesn't mean he would have signed for 8 - 9 million or less. I would pursue trades to get a guy like kotchman, or howard.

I also think that arizona is desperate, and that's why they spent so much on free agents. The only way they can get out of debt is to make money, and nobody will pay to see a losing team (I hoped the jays would learn this lesson). So they spend money to make money. Nothing is wrong with that, the problem is that the jays don't spend money on improving their team, and hence pay for mediocare talent. I was much more upset when I found out they signed CAT for 3 million dollars, now that's a guaranted waste.
_Dunny - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 01:45 PM EST (#10339) #
I think if you can add Wilson, get good years from Cattalanotto, Wells, Wilson, Hudson and somethng out of Hisnke...

Then if you can somehow add a Clement and bullpen help..

You start to look like a team with very good pitching that can score enough runs to win some games.

Halladay
LillY
Clement
Bush
Batista

That would be the 2nd or 3rd best rotation in the A.L.
_Ducey - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 01:48 PM EST (#10340) #
I'm getting ready to declare myself a free agent fan

Well if you are going to believe rumours started by writers sitting on their brains in Toronto (the winter meetings are in Anaheim) whom JP would never tell anything, then you may find the market a difficult one.
_Thomas M - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 01:51 PM EST (#10341) #
I'm getting ready to declare myself a free agent fan.

bro_dh: Maybe Steinbrenner offers you a multi-year deal. Do we get compensation=
Mike Green - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 01:58 PM EST (#10342) #
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/041210rulefive.html
COMN for the BA Rule 5 draft preview.
_Cory - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:00 PM EST (#10343) #
What do you guys think on an acquisition of Jose Lima?
_Tyler - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:04 PM EST (#10344) #
Chavez mirage. Gave up something like the same number of HR on the road as at home, in half the innings. Don't touch him JP!
_Lee - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:07 PM EST (#10345) #
To get rid of what appears to be a long-term building block for very short-term gain is unacceptable unless the Jays are closing in on a championship.

Rios will not doubt be a solid player, but I'm not sure that he's the "block" that the Jays need to build on right now. And like I said, if he were to be traded for any of the guys mentioned, it would have to also involve that player being signed for more than a year or two, which should be something the Jays could get done given the spare cash they've got right now.

Now we're trading Rios for has-beens.

Firstly, most of this is just idle speculation about whether a trade of Rios for Player X would be worth it. Second, give me a bloody break. Durazo, for instance, was .321/.396/.523 with 22 HR and 88 RBI last season. It says here that Rios will in all likelihood NEVER come close to that kind of production in his career. If that's what you think is a has been, I'll take a whole team of them, thank you very much.
_jsoh - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:08 PM EST (#10346) #
What do you guys think on an acquisition of Jose Lima?

Home: ERA: 3.08 G: 19 IP: 102.1 HR: 16 BB: 14 K: 55
Away: ERA: 5.56 G: 17 IP: 68.0 HR: 17 BB: 20 K: 38

17 HR in 68IP on the road? Stick him in the Dome, and he'd be on the DL from his heap whipping around so often, watching the balls leave the yard.
_G.T. - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:17 PM EST (#10347) #
Would there be any hope of landing Oliver Perez with Wilson? Even after his incredible year he seems to be generally underrated.

I watched a few of Perez's starts in September, because they were key for my fantasy team. Suffice to say, he is NOT underrated by the Pirates broadcasters. Given that, I'd guess that the ballclub is well aware of what they have, regardless of how underrated he may be in baseball circles, overall.
_Nicholas - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:18 PM EST (#10348) #
What was Cat re-signed for ( I mean $$ wise )????
_BCMike - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:21 PM EST (#10349) #
Yikes, those are some nasty splits on Lima. No thanks.
_Ryan01 - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:24 PM EST (#10350) #
Whether you can re-sign Durazo/Johnson/Wilson/Whoever, should have zero consideration in assessing a trade, IMO. I know it often does, but unless for some bizarre reason they'll sign with you for a bargain then it's just foolish to consider it part of the players value.

If we were able to sign one of those guys to an extension, it would almost certainly be at or above market value. There's no reason for them to them to forego free agency for a team they've yet to even play for unless they're offered a very sweet deal. If that's the case, why not wait a year or two and sign them or a comparable player (like Koskie) at market value and not give up your best propect?
_Matthew E - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:27 PM EST (#10351) #
You know what the real problem here is? We're bored. All the other kids are opening their shiny free-agent presents, and we're stuck with the McDonald's gift certificates. Mommmm, it's the worst Christmas ever!

There's no urgency here. If Ricciardi's proven anything in the past, it's that he's aggressive about making moves. If he hasn't done anything yet, there must not be any moves to make yet. So let's wait.
_Mylegacy - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:32 PM EST (#10352) #
Question boys and girls... When Rios is 29 will he be hit something like .280/.360/.525? All the boys and girls say.."Yes teacher."

Rios shows our big problem. We all know WHEN he fills out he's going to be a masher. BUT, that won't be till he's 25 at the earliest. OUR PROBLEM is we only get him for 6 years (the end of his arbitration years) he'll be 28 when he finishes his 6th year with us.

SO, of the 6 years we have him he's SUPER MARIO, sorry SUPER RIOS, for three of them.

Building position players from within is REALLY difficult.
_Lee - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:39 PM EST (#10353) #
You know what the real problem here is? We're bored. All the other kids are opening their shiny free-agent presents, and we're stuck with the McDonald's gift certificates. Mommmm, it's the worst Christmas ever!

LOL, very true.

Question boys and girls... When Rios is 29 will he be hit something like .280/.360/.525? All the boys and girls say.."Yes teacher."

Rios shows our big problem. We all know WHEN he fills out he's going to be a masher.


We do, do we? I reserve the right to remain highly skeptical.
_bro__dh - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:40 PM EST (#10354) #
I'm just saying I do not like the general direction of the team and I am quickly losing respect for JP. These rumours for injured players and ones who strike out a ton (Johnson and Wilson) are just too much to take. I really hated the way Delgado was treated from last season to now. Can anyone say this still really feels like their team?
_Four Seamer - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:44 PM EST (#10355) #
Can anyone say this still really feels like their team?

Since my name isn't Ted Rogers, no. If it was, I'd say yes.
_Lee - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:46 PM EST (#10356) #
I really hated the way Delgado was treated from last season to now.

Me too.

Can anyone say this still really feels like their team?

I know what you mean. The Jays seem less familiar to me now than at any point in the last 20 years, though I can't quite figure out why.
Named For Hank - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:49 PM EST (#10357) #
Hated the way Delgado was treated as in you hated that they didn't re-sign him? Or what?

I like the general direction of the team. Build to conquer. These rumors that are getting you down are probably just that: rumors. Believe 'em when they happen. I think you've got a pretty itchy trigger finger if some probably-false rumors make you want to dump your home team.
_Ryan01 - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:50 PM EST (#10358) #
These rumours for injured players and ones who strike out a ton (Johnson and Wilson) are just too much to take

Then here's an idea: don't listen to them. They're rumours. There's been more than a few rumours dropped by the Toronto media that JP has later gone on to publicly laugh at or flat out ridicule over the last couple years.

It's one thing to disagree with moves that he has made. It's quite another to condemn him for moves that Bob Elliot says he might make.
Named For Hank - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:51 PM EST (#10359) #
The Jays seem less familiar to me now than at any point in the last 20 years, though I can't quite figure out why.

Probably because the relentless media attack is worse than it has been at any point in the last 20 years. Don't let them form your opinions for you.
_Four Seamer - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:51 PM EST (#10360) #
I really hated the way Delgado was treated from last season to now.

If Delgado was treated badly by anyone from the Blue Jays, I sure missed it. They paid his cheques, they didn't rush him back from injury, they didn't press him to waive his no-trade, they didn't vindictively offer him arbitration to hurt his value in the free market. Nobody ever badmouthed him, and in fact, JP and Godfrey went out of their way to say nice things about him. I have no idea why anyone around here is feeling sorry for Carlos.
_DaveInNYC - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 02:53 PM EST (#10361) #
Isn't this the kind of situation that JP should thrive in though? One of the things about Moneyball and the "Moneyball GM's" is that they look at the market that's been set, they find the flaws in the market (Such as certain stats like OBP being undervalued) and then they find their bargain guys that still manage to produce at a high level. Why can't JP be expected to do this? Beane did it in Oakland and he continues to do it. I know a lot of Ricciardi fans will take offense to this, but when is it time he starts taking some accountability. I've heard about how "it's mostly luck" and how it's not even his fault... I don't buy it. JP needs to start bringing in guys that will produce because it's getting pretty tiresome hearing "how could he have known" every time one of his bullpen FA's flops.

I like the guy a lot, but another season that even closely resembles last and odds are he will be a goner.

BTW - Any news on whether or not Placido Polanco will accept arb? If he doesn't, anyone know if JP would have interest in him if he became available? I think he's vastly underrated on the market and he might be a good fit at 3rd if you can somehow move Hinske.
Named For Hank - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 03:01 PM EST (#10362) #
Dave, it is exactly the kind of situation that he should thrive in. But people are talking like he's tried and failed because we haven't heard anything other than rumors of totally ridiculous trades. For all we know, our minds will be blown at any moment from the brilliance of what he pulls off, though we really won't be able to evaluate any of it until the team plays.

As to bad luck, who could have predicted the injury parade last year? That's what he's talking about when he chalks things up to bad luck.
_Jim Acker - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 03:14 PM EST (#10363) #
I asked this yesterday, but didn't really get a good answer. What do you think Magglio will sign for and could be convinced to play 1b in order to keep him healthy?
_Jim Acker - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 03:17 PM EST (#10364) #
and why is there so little talk about Odalis Perez?
_DaveInNYC - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 03:21 PM EST (#10365) #
NFH, thanks for replying.

When I was speaking about his "failures" so to speak (although believe me, I like Ricciardi) I meant before this off-season (Guys like DLS, Creek, Adams, etc.)

As you'd notice, most of his mishaps have come with regards to the pen. IMO, he's not putting enough weight on how important the bullpen is especially on this team. Unless you have a bunch of horses like Doc that can constantly get to the 8th and 9th, your going to need guys in that pen that can work night in and night out. I've never really liked how JP's spent his available money on other spots and just left the bullpen as the last thing to fix, it hasn't worked since he's been here.

With regards to last season, NFH, believe me I would not blame JP for the rash of injuries last season. NOBODY could have seen that coming (except for with Delgado) What I'm referring to is how he signs a guy like Adams/Ligtenberg/DLS or any other bullpen guy, they don't perform, and then he just says that it's bad luck. MAYBE I'll understand saying that about Kerry because he had been solid before (although he was always poor against lefties) but the other guys NOTHING should be expected of those caliber players. That's not bad luck, that's getting guys that can't perform on the major league level.
_Ryan - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 03:24 PM EST (#10366) #
#2671107 Posted 12/10/2004 03:17 PM by Jim Acker:
What do you think Magglio will sign for?

I think Maggs will go for around $4-$8 mill with a lot of incentives. I'd say a one, maybe two year deal. I think he would fit well with the Mets.

#2671107 Posted 12/10/2004 03:17 PM by Jim Acker:
And why is there so little talk about Odalis Perez

Did you watch the playoffs this year?
_DaveInNYC - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 03:27 PM EST (#10367) #
Funny how the playoffs can change someone's value SOOO much...

CoughTROYGLAUScough
_Wildrose - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 03:27 PM EST (#10368) #
Did I ever tell anybody how much I love this week of the winter baseball meetings... great stuff.

At any rate, its too bad the Globe and Mail has gone pay per view, I consider Jeff Blair to be Toronto's best newspaper baseball writer.

Here's a synopsis of todays article. The Jays two main targets remain Koskie and Clements. They are prepared to outbid other teams to get these guys.

Riccardi is worried about Clements, "He has some concerns about playing in Canada",( for those who were not privy to yesterdays discussion about the validity of Canada at times, being difficult to sell to some American players, here's the indisputable proof), apparently J.P. was willing to delay his trip to Anaheim to have Matt visit, but that did not happen. The team is privately worried that they have a Worrell scenario on their hands, that Clements will take less money from Cleveland to be nearer to his home. Perhaps (these are my comments)Clements close relationship with new pitching coach Brad Arnsberger can trump the hometown factor. Clements will make a decision at the end of the week.

In regards to Koskie the team has a 3 year/15 million dollar offer on the table. Koskie has given Minny to Sunday to up their ante. Seattle remains in the hunt.

The story also discussed the steroid issue. In the last round of testing 5-7% of players tested positive, teams however, are not privy to the information as to which players were juiced, so Riccardi believes idle speculation will affect some moves. (are you reading this Brad Fullmer)
_Ron - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 03:28 PM EST (#10369) #
If the reports are true..

I wonder if JP has been reading my posts about Rios and Clark.......

I like Wilson although he punches out too much for my liking.

I'm also a fan of Nick Johnson. But I would prefer Wilson over Johnson if I had to choose between the two. I would give up Alex Rios for either of them. I'm not a fan of Rios and his trade value is pretty high right now. If he doesn't show any power next year his stock will really drop. Rios has gone downhill after being the league MVP while at AA. He showed little power in brief stint at AAA, and showed little power in the Majors. Only hitting 1 HR in 426 AB's is a HUGE red flag imo. And to make matters worse he didn't even hit 1 Double in September or October. His power was limited to singles. He simply doesn't slug enough for a starting corner OF spot. I understand he's only 23yrs old and can fill out his body but I believe this is the perfect time to sell high and not pull a Josh Phelps type trade down the road.

Personally I would cringe if Delgado's replacement turns out to be Tony Clark, although I don't mind Clark as a bench player.
_jsoh - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 03:29 PM EST (#10370) #
And why is there so little talk about Odalis Perez

Did you watch the playoffs this year?


Hey! Its a market inefficiency! Otherwise good-to-great LHPs who implode spectacularily in the playoffs are undervalued in the current market!

And since the Jays obviously arent going to make the playoffs next year, thats not going to be an issue for us.

JP! Sign this man now!
_Ryan B. - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 03:31 PM EST (#10371) #
DaveInNYC, J.P had to sign these poor pitchers because he didn't have the money to spend on an Armondo Benitez or Tim Worrell last off-season. I agree that the bullpen needs to become more of a priority then it has been in the past. When you risk having a David Bush or a Chachin in your rotion next year you need guys that can come in and stop the bleeding. The problem here is the lack of a closer. The Jays havn't had one since Bill "Gas Can" Koch and even though Koch struggled the other guys pitched well. Why? Because they knew their roles. The crap that J.P and Tosca pulled last year with having someone new close each game I think wore on the bullpen and ultimitly played a part in their ineffectivness.
Named For Hank - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 03:36 PM EST (#10372) #
Dave, I think the problem in the past in regards to bullpenners has been no money. Now J.P. has the money, so let's see what he does. It is a little bit of put-up-or-shut-up.

At any rate, its too bad the Globe and Mail has gone pay per view, I consider Jeff Blair to be Toronto's best newspaper baseball writer.

I agree. I like both Blair and Millison, and they keep me subscribed to the weekend dead tree edition. Actually, now that I'm getting broadband at home I'm tempted to subscribe to the G&M's electronic edition to take with me on the train in the mornings. I feel awful buying paper newspapers because of the amount of waste...I suppose I've been well-trained.
_Wildrose - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 03:37 PM EST (#10373) #
Toronto actually outbid Philly by $700,000 for Worrell last year, but the player went against the advice of his agent and stayed in the N.L.
_jsoh - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 03:48 PM EST (#10374) #
Lets play a little game, shall we. I'll be Rob Neyer, and you'll be my loyal reading audience.

Consider the following 2 players:

Player A: .243/.347/.402 in 378 AB
Player B: .286/.338/.383 in 426 AB

Both players were 23 years old when they put up that line. Both players have excellent defensive reputations. One player, however, is Johnny Olerud slow, plays a position on the weak-end of the defensive spectrum, and has a propensity for being injured.

The other player is quite speedy, plays a more important defensive position, and has never been significantly injured.

All things being equal, which guy would you rather have?

Now consider that 2 years later, player A put up a .251/.359/.398 in less than half a season, cause he was injured so much.

So why again are people so hot to trot to trade Rios for Nick the Stick straight up? No seriously. I mean it. Why?

Yes. We have a hole at 1B, with a relative dearth of good candidates to fill it. But still, trading for Johnson doesnt really address the 1B situation all that well, and just creates a hole in RF.

Who's gonna play RF if Rios is traded? Cat? Sparky?

How does that help us in '06 and '07?

Rios may not be the second coming of Winfield, but the calls to dump him after one year for a questionable upgrade at 1B are way premature. Thats the kind of short-term thinking that has teams like the Mets and Pirates wallowing in the basement, irrespective of their payrolls.
_Marc - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 03:49 PM EST (#10375) #
Odalis Perez is also said to have questionable makeup.

Any any thought of Maggs signing for $4 million is delirious thinking especially after the way this offseason has started. He has no more questions about his health than Glaus did and I would take Maggs' offensive package over Glaus' any day.

In this day and age, the best way for the Blue Jays to attract good players is to either draft and develop them or trade for them.

That's not such a bad thing, either. With the Jays budget there are few, if any, really desirable players on the FA market. You have to face facts, the Jays are in a state of rebuilding, which means the signing of impact players will be few and far between for the next couple of years.

That said, the Jays are only one good trade away from starting a run at respectability... I truly feel the Alomar/Carter for McGriff/Fernandez trade was what laid the groundwork for the World Series run in 1992-93.
_DaveInNYC - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 03:55 PM EST (#10376) #
NFH, I like the stance you take on this situation, I completely agree with it :)

There are many JP Lovers that still will not admit that this is his "make or break" off-season or as you said time to put up or shut up. Many of his "followers" constantly say that he doesn't have the resources... but wait, didn't everyone including JP know that was going to happen when he accepted the job as Jays GM? Wasn't Rogers looking for that special someone who could someone manage to cut payroll and STILL win games by hunting for bargain players that would still contribute to make a winning team? Much was expected of JP with a small payroll, and he knew this and he took the job on head on. While the 2003 season was amazing, last year was atrocious. I really don't want to hear people feeling sorry for JP and his "lack of resources" because that's the reason why he's here, because he was supposed to be able to find bargains.

It truly is put up or shut up time for JP.
_Crush_99 - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 04:02 PM EST (#10377) #
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylc=X3oDMTBpa2lpNnFzBF9TAzk1ODYxNzc3BHNlYwN0bQ--?slug=ap-marlins-lasvegas&prov=ap&type=lgns
Thought I'd hijack this thread with a "it could be worse" story -- The destroyer of baseball cities Jeffery Loria is at it again...

See comm for details
_Robbie - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 04:02 PM EST (#10378) #
That said, the Jays are only one good trade away from starting a run at respectability... I truly feel the Alomar/Carter for McGriff/Fernandez trade was what laid the groundwork for the World Series run in 1992-93.

You're right, that trade did lay the groundwork for the World Series victory, but let's not get carried away. This Jays team is a far cry away from the late 80's, early 90s team. It will take a lot of work to get this team back to the playoofs. If by one good trade, you mean sending, I dunno, say Hinske, Catalanatto, Batista and Reed Johnson for Berkman, Bagwell, Biggio, Lidge, Oswalt, Petite and Miller, maybe you have a point. Otherwise, you're just deluding yourself.
_Dunny - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 04:07 PM EST (#10379) #
To dispell the negative thoughts of playing in Canada they should hammer Roger Clemens in to the prospective players head..

Especially a pitcher such as Clement.

Roger rejuvinated his career here incredibly.
Named For Hank - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 04:18 PM EST (#10380) #
There are many JP Lovers that still will not admit that this is his "make or break" off-season or as you said time to put up or shut up. Many of his "followers" constantly say that he doesn't have the resources...

It's never black-or-white, and I don't think that there are very many people (at least, not here) who are so blinded by something as to follow it with no regard for whatever else may happen. A lot of us gave J.P. a ton of slack last year. I'll still be cutting him some if this coming season is a dog, because he'll still have his draft picks developing, but this is an important off-season for us to judge him by, because it's the first one where he has a bigger pile of money to spend. We'll get a real taste of what he can do on the free agent market.

I don't think it's completely make-or-break for him, but I do believe that it's important.
_Lee - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 04:18 PM EST (#10381) #
Thought I'd hijack this thread with a "it could be worse" story -- The destroyer of baseball cities Jeffery Loria is at it again...

Ugh, he's the one owner I like less than Angelos.
_Crush_99 - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 04:25 PM EST (#10382) #
Makes you glad to have Ted as a owner...
_bro__dh - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 04:27 PM EST (#10383) #
Named for Hank, I know what you're saying but I've been a fan of the Jays for over 20 years. In that time, I've never seen them act in such a classless way and that's bothering me. They seem like a faceless corporation, not a team and I don't like it. If they let Delgado go because they couldn't afford him, then that's one thing but the two year offer was just insulting. And to tell us that they tried to keep him was just false. The rumours may not happen, that we all know, but where there's smoke, there's fire. By this I mean management may be letting us know what the direction is of the corporation and I just don't like it. The team was best with Beeston and Gaston. The Godfrey/JP days just don't compare.
_CaramonLS - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 04:31 PM EST (#10384) #
Ortiz gets locked up Long term @ 11 mill per... What does this do for Clement?

IMO - Clement is a better Pitcher than Ortiz....
_Ron - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 04:31 PM EST (#10385) #
Looks like I'm not alone in believing the upcoming season is make or break for JP:)

Of course what happens if the Jays crumble and then another GM comes in with his own ideas, I don't want to see another 5-7 year rebuilding plan (alright I'll still watch but it would be hard to stomach).

BTW when does JP's contract run out?
Named For Hank - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 04:46 PM EST (#10386) #
bro, gimme some ammo -- what are you using for your charges of them behaving classlessly? Just that they couldn't make a competitive offer to Delgado?

As to "where there's smoke", who knows if that smoke is from a funny cigarette that makes you see alligators? Or maybe someone just misheard "Rays". You never know where this stuff comes from.
_Tyler - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 04:48 PM EST (#10387) #
They seem like a faceless corporation, not a team and I don't like it.

The thing is, I haven't seen any similar fiascos with any other players. That leads me to pin the blame for this mess squarely on Godfrey. If Godfrey hadn't gotten involved, does anyone think JP would have tendered a 12/2 deal? I can't see it.
_Four Seamer - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 04:54 PM EST (#10388) #
Another poster in another thread put it perfectly: if it's insulting to offer a man $6 million a year, let me be the first to be degraded, emasculated and humiliated by JP. You guys need some perspective if you think offering somebody that kind of coin is an insult.
_Magpie - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 04:55 PM EST (#10389) #
I truly feel the Alomar/Carter for McGriff/Fernandez trade was what laid the groundwork for the World Series run in 1992-93.

Nonsense. In that deal, they traded two all-stars to get two all-stars. They gave up quality to get quality (unlike, say, Junior Felix for Devon White).

But where did they get the all-stars to make the trade? The groundwork for the championships was exactly the same as the groundwork for the Yankees run in the late 90s - the number of quality players that the system had already produced.
_Ducey - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 05:06 PM EST (#10390) #
The team was best with Beeston and Gaston. The Godfrey/JP days just don't compare.

Hmm... one of those eras had a payroll which was the highest in baseball aided by a new stadium built a public expense.

I am no apologist for JP but your whining is starting bug me. The Jays have had the "classy" GM Gord Ash who reacted to guys like you that needed some instant gratification. That is how we got all those wonderful contracts like Delgado's, Mondesi, Alex Gonzalez, etc. Wow, that worked well. Were the fans coming out in droves to see those players? # of playoff visits?

If you want that perpetual adding of a superstar to an otherwise useless team you could have been cheering for Baltimore all these years or maybe Arizona should be your new team - they seem to willing to mortgage their future for a few headlines this week. Bets on whether they finish .500 this year?

JP was brought in to do things in a different way. To rebuild thru the farm system. The Jays only hope is to get a bunch of young guys who all put it together at the same time, and THEN add a few free agents to put them over the top. It doesn't happen the other way around. Think Tampa Bay Lightning and Calgary Flames not Maple Leafs and St. Louis Blues.

The payroll is not going to change and that is not the fault of JP. It may not be anyones fault. The reality is that to ask Rogers to lose money so that the team can sign a few names but still miss the playoffs simply does not make sense.
Mike Green - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 05:13 PM EST (#10391) #
Magpie's right. The Alomar trade was a good one, and arguably pushed a good team over the top, but the groundwork was done through the hard slog of player development through the system. What made the trade such a smart one is that the Jays had Olerud available to take McGriff's job, and as it turns out, ready to perform at roughly the same level.
_John Northey - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 05:48 PM EST (#10392) #
As a fan during the 80's and 90's it was clear the Jays built from within and via trades for minor leaguers. That team lead to the 92/93 winners via trades of prospects who became something.

92/93...
CA: Borders - farm system
1B: Olerud - farm system
2B: Alomar - via trade of Fernandez (farm system) & McGriff (traded for when low level minor leaguer)
3B: Gruber/Sprague - Rule 5/farm system
SS: Lee/Fernandez - Rule 5/complicated
LF: Maldonado/Henderson - trade of two minor leaguers/trade of Karsay
CF: White - trade of Felix/Sojo/minor leaguer (all via system)
RF: Carter = see Alomar
DH: Winfield/Molitor - both free agents

Fernandez (farm system) came back in 93 via a trade of Darrin Jackson who was aquired via trading Derek Bell (farm system)

So, out of the 13 regulars, all players outside of Winfield & Molitor in the everyday lineup came via the farm system (3), trades of players in the farm system (2), trades of major leaguers who were via the Jays farm system or virtually so in McGriff (3), Rule 5 draft (2), plus Fernandez.

That is a lot of use out of the farm system. The system had to produce 7 major leaguers plus have 4 prospects good enough to aquire decent talent to create the lineup for the two wins. And that isn't touching the bench which had Delgado and Green on it in late 93.

The pitching?
Starters (10 or more plus Cone):
Morris: Free agent
Key: Farm system
Guzman: Farm system
Stottlemyre: Farm system
Stieb: Farm system
Wells: Farm system
Hentgen: Farm system
Cone: traded Kent & Ryan Thompson from farm to get him for 7 starts
Stewart: Free agent
Leiter: traded Barfield (farm system) to get him

6 via the farm system, 2 via trades of just farm system produced players, plus 2 free agents.

Relievers (50+IP)
Henke: free agent compensation
Ward: trade of Doyle Alexander (after Yanks released him)
Eichhorn: trade of Ducey & Myers (both farm system products)
Timlin: Farm system
Castillo: free agent (originally via farm system)
Cox: free agent
MacDonald: farm system (just shy of 50 IP in 92)

Now this is where the farm system wasn't counted on that much. Just 2 via the farm system, 2 via free agency, 1 via sorta free agency, 1 for a guy aquired via free agency, 1 via trades of prosects.

Interesting to see how the champs were put together. All major areas (everyday lineup, starting pitchers) were via the system with a bit of free agency at the high end to finish it off. The pen though came via a couple of shewd pickups when they were minor leaguers in Henke/Ward and decent use of free agency to fill in the gaps.

What does this mean? It means that the Ash era of good first round, lousy rest of draft made sure the Jays would look pretty on paper but could never do the trades needed to be playoff bound. You need to have average players developed (such as Sprague, Felix, etc) to fill in the roster or to use as trade bait. Money helps (Winfield, Molitor, Morris, and Stewart although keeping Key rather than Stewart and letting guys like Wells pitch rather than Morris might have worked) but you must be on the edge for it to be worthwhile.

JP has the right idea in building the farm up. Will it work? Has he drafted the right horses? Can he do the proper trades ala Gillick? We'll see soon enough as he now has players high enough in the minors to become tempting trade bait or useful major leaguers in 2005/2006.
_John Northey - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 05:49 PM EST (#10393) #
Speaking of Olerud taking over for McGriff, this will be the first time in Jays history that 1B will not be improved when someone leaves.

Mayberry --> Upshaw --> McGriff --> Olerud --> Delgado --> ???

It was a nice run while it lasted.
_calig23 - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 06:00 PM EST (#10394) #
"Would there be any hope of landing Oliver Perez with Wilson? Even after his incredible year he seems to be generally underrated. Wilson and Perez for Rios and... Bush and Batista? Or, as I would expect, is there no hope for Oliver Perez to move."

Absolutely, positively, no chance whatsoever. Oliver Perez is one of the few Pirates who is completely untouchable.
_Ryan Lind - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 06:02 PM EST (#10395) #
What was wrong with JP's offseason last year? Signing Hentgen was a mistake, but not one that hamstrung the club or anything. Plus, everyone wanted it to happen as a farewell tour and for him to be a mentor.

He gave Ligtenberg too much money? Maybe, but even it's not that big of a deal. He's only under contract for one more year @ 2.5M and I bet he's decent in '05.

He traded Kielty for Lilly - That's worked out great so far.

He traded Hendrickson for Speier. Probably a fair trade.

He signed Adams, whose performance last year is underrated IMO. He put in quite a few great outings before that "Adams for closer" situation, and a number of posters here were actually clamoring for Adams to be made closer, proof that he was pitching well. He did have the best ERA on the staff, for what that's worth. Plus, JP turned him into Hattig.

He signed Batista, which is another move that started out well, but Batista lost it late. In any case, Miguel is an average pitcher who makes average money. I mean really, when you look at the going rate of pitchers this year, Miguel Batista is a bargain.

That's about it, isn't it? He signed Vlds, drafted Talley Haines, and some other minor leaguers, but I think that's about it. Looks like a decent offseason to me. Certainly not one that means JP has to prove something this offseason. Although, as NFH said, this is an important offseason to look at, because we'll see for the first time what JP can do with some real money to play with.

I'm just so tired of listening to people here say that JP is doing a bad job and backing it up with nothing but the win-loss record. I know you all watched the season last year, and I know you're intelligent. The Jays were terrible last season because of injuries. Oh, I can feel you rolling your eyes. Injuries are usually a "lame excuse," but when you look at last year...I mean come on. Losing your best pitcher for half the season, your best hitter for a month, your second best hitter for three weeks, your third best hitter for most of the season, etc. And several of those injuries overlapped, too.

I just can't stress this enough. The Jays were awful last year mostly because of injuries. You cannot blame injuries on a GM, really. I don't see any reason for it. Plus, have we already forgotten 2003? I mean, if GM's can be measured by W-L records, then JP must have been a genius before right? I guess he just forgot how to win? You guys remind me of Leafs fans (no surprise,) Leafs lose two straight, and Pat Quinn is a bad coach that needs to be fired. Then the Leafs win three in a row and Quinn deserves the Adams. Then the Leafs lose again, etc. etc.

And you know this. I see you guys saying it all the time: "If the Jays lose 85+ games next year then JP needs to be fired!!" Please, let's actually look at what the GM does, okay? He could make all the right moves and the Jays could still be horrible.

Bottom Line: I think JP is an average GM thus far. He's made some good moves, he's made some bad ones. While the Jays haven't made the playoffs, at least he hasn't hurt the team by signing a bunch of mediocre players to ridiculous contracts. I don't agree that he's the reason that Jays aren't good, and I most certainly don't agree that it's a "make or break year." It's an interesting year, and an important one, but not one that should cost him his job if the Jays perform poorly.
_Magpie - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 06:13 PM EST (#10396) #
One correction to JN's breakdown of how the championship Jays were built - Juan Guzman was actually acquired from the Dodgers for Mike Sharperson (farm system!).

This led to the unique situation of tje 1992 All Star Game which featured both Guzman and Sharperson, as well as McGriff, Fernandez, Alomar, and Carter.

Those were some win-win trades. At that moment, anyway.
_Magpie - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 06:23 PM EST (#10397) #
Mayberry --> Upshaw --> McGriff --> Olerud --> Delgado --> ???

Eric Crozier??

No pressure....

The Jays were awful last year mostly because of injuries.

I think someone on the Box studied the issue and concluded that the Jays endured the worst run of injuries that any team had gone through since the early 1980s (I think it was a Giants team back then. If anyone else remembers...)

Ricciardi has had very little margin for error so far - his teams can neither endure free agents that don't work out or a rash of injuries. Last year, they got hit by both, even though Ricciardi was hedging his bets by hauling in a) fairly cheap free agents or b) free agents who had a consistent record of success. Preferably guys who qualified on both counts.

With Delgado off the books, he has more room to move. It'll be interesting to see what happens.
_Mick - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 06:24 PM EST (#10398) #
The Dallas Morning News is reporting that the Rangers have signed Richard Hidalgo. This jumps into the Top 10 Bad Signings sweepstakes for the '04-'05 offseason.
_Ryan Lind - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 06:32 PM EST (#10399) #
The only sports team I can think of that has had worse injury trouble than the Jays last year is the LA Kings, who were without their entire first line for almost the whole season.
_Ryan B. - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 06:58 PM EST (#10400) #
I just caught Jeff Blair's report on To The Point on The Score. He had some interesting points and ideas.

- Are you a Paul Konerko fan? Hope so because according to Blair either Konerko or Carlos Lee could be headed to the Jays is a blockbuster that would see, gulp, Eric Hinske or Miguel Batista with prospects going the other way. To put this in perspective Konerko is owed $8M next year which is the final year of his contract. I think Hinskie makes between $3 and $5 mill and Batista makes %3.5M so the Jays would be taking on some payroll.

- Also, if the Twins do not agree to a no trade clause for Corey Koskie then he will become a Jay. Toronto has offered him the most money, 3 years/$15M, and have the appeal of being a Canadian team.

- Being Canadian is a double edge sword however as the fact that the Jays play in Toronto has Matt Clement balking at a 3 year/$21M offer from tha Jays. However the Jays belive that having Brad Arnsberg as pitiching coach will off set the Canadian factor. The Indians, Tigers and Yankees are also in the mis for Clements services.

However, if you add all those salaries up, even with out Hinske or Batista's salary on the books, those three players exceed the $14M the Jays have to spend. Someone who makes $1M or more would have to go in the Konerko/Lee deal for all the numbers to work out. That leaves only trades and the Rule 5 draft to fix the bullpen, yikes!
_Ryan B. - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 07:03 PM EST (#10401) #
Forgot to add this:

According to ESPN's Peter Gammons, David Wells has received offers from the Red Sox and Indians today.
Gammons believes the Yankees may get involved in the last minute, and it's worth noting that with Wells, a handshake deal is meaningless. The Red Sox may be the favorites for Wells. If they're willing to sacrifice their first-round pick to sign him, they could be more likely to ink Placido Polanco, too, since that would cost them only a second-round pick.

Source: Roto World

Someone asked about Polanco, well, the Red Sox are in negotiations with him.
_Geoff - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 07:04 PM EST (#10402) #
The Jays had injury trouble, yes. I still think J.P. is a smart man who will forever be financially responsible. But part of a G.M.'s role is to evaluate the market and talent level of baseball players. In that regards, I think J.P. made mistakes in evaluating talent and/or the market with 14 players on the 25 man opening day roster. The 14 players are: Cash, Hinske, Woodward, Reed, Phelps, Pond, Hentgen, A-Lo, Kershner, DLS, Ligter, Batista, Adams, Delgado.

JP overvalued the talent level of the first 9 on that list and I believe also the next 3 (although they get an injury asterisk). Adams I think he overvalued but not to a huge extent (same could be said for Batista and possibly Ligter). Delgado's value was at its highest last year, and JP should have traded him last offseason (assuming Carlos would have let him - but I think Carlos would have been more agreeable to an offseason trade offer than a midseason change of address).

Now, I'm not expecting JP to be perfect and I, along with everyone else agreed with a lot of the above decisions. However, JP is a MLB GM and as such his decisions should be scrutinized on the basis of his talent and market evaluation, not just the financial acumen of his decision. A few whiffs here and there are ok, but 14 bad decision compared to 1 really good one (Lilly) is not a good offseason.

Maybe its partially luck, maybe its partially funds available, but at some point J.P. has to be held accountable for the fact that many more players have failed to live up to the GM's expectations than those who have exceeded them.

That said, I want J.P. around at least until his contract runs out in 2007
_BCMike - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 07:26 PM EST (#10403) #
A few whiffs here and there are ok, but 14 bad decision compared to 1 really good one (Lilly) is not a good offseason.

So what 14 other players would you have brought in instead? You could probably find a dozen other teams and pick 14 players who 'underachieved' or whatever your criteria is. It's ridiculous and unfair to call all those players 'bad decisions' or 'overvalued'. You can certainly question many of them but saying JP made 14 bad decisions is going a little far.

You can only do so much, some players will work out some won't. It doesn't mean that they were all bad moves. Hindsight is 20/20.

Should JP have dumped Phelps before the season started?
What's wrong in seeing if Cash is capable of being your backup catcher?
Did you know that Lopez would completely implode?
Name the relievers JP should have signed for the same amount of money he had available.
_Geoff - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 07:47 PM EST (#10404) #
Should JP have dumped Phelps before the season started?
What's wrong in seeing if Cash is capable of being your backup catcher?
Did you know that Lopez would completely implode?
Name the relievers JP should have signed for the same amount of money he had available.


To answer your 3 questions
1) In hindsight, yes
2) He was the starter in April, and what is wrong with it is that he was completely inadequate
3) No

Of course, hindsight is 20/20. I'm not disputing that. I said in my original post that I'm not expecting perfection. But look at all the players who underperformed J.P.'s expectations. And at every level of free agency there are players out there that outperform expectations. Do I expect JP to find all of them? Of course not. All I am saying is that while J.P.'s financial understanding of the game (which is very important) is quite good, his talent evaluation record has been mediocre at best
_Geoff - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 07:49 PM EST (#10405) #
I should add that all of J.P.'s decisions can be rationally understood and explained. But if they consistently dont work out, then he has to catch some of the blame for that
_CaramonLS - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 07:53 PM EST (#10406) #
Name the relievers JP should have signed for the same amount of money he had available.

Lighter Fluid + Del La Santos = Quantrill.

I know Paul had a bad year, but he was also over worked, and was supposely injured. He also wasn't nearly as bad as Kerry was most of the time.
_BCMike - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 07:58 PM EST (#10407) #
All I am saying is that while J.P.'s financial understanding of the game (which is very important) is quite good, his talent evaluation record has been mediocre at best

I don't disagree with you, all I'm saying is that it's unfair to say he made 14 bad decisions to 1 good one. When you say 'underperformed J.P.'s expectations', I don't agree with that because quite honestly I don't think his expectations were very high for most of the players you listed. It's one thing to have expectations it's another to hope that guys can fill roles for you.

2) He was the starter in April, and what is wrong with it is that he was completely inadequate

He was the starter after Myers went down. How would you have known that he was completely inadequate if you didn't try him at the MLB level? Cash was a dissapointment, but he has been touted as a potential 'catcher of the future' and at some point he was going to get some playing time. Obviously it didn't work out, but I don't think trying him out was a bad decision.
_Chris H - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 08:21 PM EST (#10408) #
I guess I am in the minority. I am not a huge fan of Rios and think he is slightly overrated. He is not the next Juan Gonzalez or Dave Winfield (reason I bring up JuanGone is that he has been referenced in the past when discussing Rios).

At 23, Rios had one major league season with a slugging percentage of .383. At 23, JuanGone already had three complete years where he slugged .522 (27 homers), .479 (43 homers), and .623 (46 homers). At 23, Winfield had two years of slugging .438 (20 homers) and .403 (15 homers).

At 23, Nick Johnson had slugged .402 with 15 homers.

I would rather have Nick Johnson and his hitting instincts then the free-swinging ways of Alexis Rios. Yes, the one big drawback to Nick is that he is arb-eligible and a pending free agent much sooner then Rios. And, yes, it would make me more comfortable if the Jays could lock Nick up for a few years...perhaps for this reason JP can can get more out of Bowden...

In the end, I would not be upset over this trade. I would also not be surprised to see Nick hit 25-30 homers next year.

C.
Pistol - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 08:22 PM EST (#10409) #
The Dallas Morning News is reporting that the Rangers have signed Richard Hidalgo. This jumps into the Top 10 Bad Signings sweepstakes for the '04-'05 offseason.

1 year, $4.5 million

I'd say it's one of the better ones right now.
_Paul D - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 08:26 PM EST (#10410) #
Lighter Fluid + Del La Santos = Quantrill.

I believe that Quantrill said that he appreciated the Jays offer, but he wanted a chance to win, so he went to New York.
_Geoff - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 08:26 PM EST (#10411) #
His expectations for those players were that they at least hold down a major league spot. Pond, for instance, was expected to better than Pond

In the 19 games before Myers was injured, Kevin Cash had 57 at bats and Greg had 18 - Cash was the starting catcher to start the year. Cash also hit .142 in 106 at bats in 2003. Many people doubted that Cash's major league ability. JP decided Cash was worth a look...that decision turned out to be wrong - that's all I am saying
_Ryan Lind - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 08:29 PM EST (#10412) #
Im wondering about Rios..

Has there ever been a player that had such little success with the longball, that went on to have a great career?

I know there ae a bunch of examples of players that had a poor rookie season, but most of them had more than 1 HR in 426 AB. I'm just curious because B-R.com doesn't offer any comparables. :)
_Ryan Lind - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 08:31 PM EST (#10413) #
JP decided Cash was worth a look...that decision turned out to be wrong - that's all I am saying

No...that decision didn't turn out to be wrong. Now that we've seen more of Cash -- now that the Jays gave him a look, we know that Cash can't hit. As opposed to before, when we were just "pretty sure" that he couldn't. :)
_Rich - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 08:42 PM EST (#10414) #
I hope Jeff Blair is not blowing smoke. Getting Konerko, even in his walk year, and being rid of Hinske's deal not just for this year but for the remaining years as well, would be a God-send, especially if Koskie can be signed. An infield of Konerko, Hudson, Adams, and Koskie looks pretty good to me.
_Ryan Lind - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 08:49 PM EST (#10415) #
I agree. I can't imagine why the White Sox would do that deal, but with Kenny Williams...
_John Northey - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 08:51 PM EST (#10416) #
Paul Konerko or Carlos Lee for Eric Hinske or Miguel Batista plus prospects?

Hrm.

Lee...
Age for 2005 season=29
2004=305/366/525, career 288/340/488
Paid $6.5 million in 2004, $8 in 2005, $8.5 in 06 or 500k buyout

Konerko...
Age for 2005 season=29
2004=277/359/535, career 278/345/481
Paid $8 million in 2004, $9.25 if traded in 2005

Both decent first basemen/DH's (Lee is actually a LF but would shift to first in Toronto I suspect). 900 OPS almost last season with career OPS in the 825 range. Solid players at $5 million but not at $8 million imo.

Hinske...
Age for 2005 season=27
2004=246/312/375 career=257/336/430
Paid $900k last season, $3 mil 2005, $13 million over 3 years

Batista...
Age for 2005 season=34
2004=4.80 ERA, ERA+ of 101 and 198 2/3 IP
Paid $3.6 million, $4.75 in 2005 and 2006

Would I make this trade? You are getting a first baseman/DH/LF for a third baseman and a league average pitcher. Payroll increases by around $1 million. You also lose a prospect.

Batista performed OK last year but his BB-SO ratio sucks (almost 1). Hinske gets more expensive by the year and his numbers drop by the year too. I'd try to get something else in addition to one of the two mentioned (cash or minor leaguer) but just might be tempted to do the trade.

One big rule is 'would you do this trade a year ago' and for Konerko the answer is 'no way' while Lee is just 'no'.

Tough situation for JP. Guess it depends on how high he is on some prospects in the system and on who else he could sign.
_Ryan B. - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 08:54 PM EST (#10417) #
Blair claims that Williams wants a makeover of his line up. He somehow tied new plyers to stealing some of the lime light from the Cubs. I don't think Eric Hinske is going to be converting the Cubs faithful anytime soon. But Blair has insisted that Kenny Willaims is feeling "very aggresive" and wants to make a trade.

Willaims stupidity = Jays gain!
_Magpie - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:01 PM EST (#10418) #
Has there ever been a player that had such little success with the longball, that went on to have a great career?

In 557 AB as a rookie, Kirby Puckett hit 0 (ZERO!) home runs.

He turned out OK.
_Ryan Lind - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:03 PM EST (#10419) #
It really wouldn't make sense for Chicago, since they already have a Hinske.
_Robbie - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:10 PM EST (#10420) #
I must say, I really like the idea of unloading Hinske and Batista, and at the same time, acquiring Konerko. With their resources, the Jays won't find anything much better. In regards to Koskie, I still hope the Twins accept the no-trade clause demand - I think 3/15 is still too much, though it wouldn't be as bad if Hinske is shipped out.
_Ryan B. - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:16 PM EST (#10421) #
Rotoworld is reporting that the Marlins signed RHP Antonio Alfonseca, who had been with the Braves, to a two-year, $4.75 million contract. He is expected to be the set up man for Mota next season.
_Jordan - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:16 PM EST (#10422) #
That would be a fascinating deal. It would signify that the Jays had written off Hinske and/or Batista as bad investments -- sunk costs, basically -- if they were willing to deal one or the other for a player essentially in his walk year.

Between them, I like Konerko better; Lee is a notorious streak hitter, feast or famine. Neither would be with the Jays in '06 and beyond, I suspect, so this would really be a course of action that recognized and accepted a non-performing contract.

It would all depend, of course, on the prospect in question -- I really don't want to see one of the big pitching prospects dealt for a rental. But on the surface, I like the look of it. Let's see if rumour becomes fact.
_Rich - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:18 PM EST (#10423) #
Solid players at $5 million but not at $8 million imo

Well, it depends which version of Lee / Konerko we are talking about. I'd pay 8 million for the 2004 models, especially considering how bad our offence was this year and how scary it looks so far for next summer.

Hinske's career numbers obscure his trends, which are down, down, down, unlike Lee and Konerko. Eric is also owed more guaranteed money after '05 than either of the other two.

Maybe stepping aside to let JP stand-in to screw Kenny Williams is Beane's Christmas present to his good buddy (and us too I hope!)
_Jordan - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:19 PM EST (#10424) #
I should add my personal belief that Hinske and/or Batista will bounce back -- but the risk that they won't is probably too high for the Jays' budget.
_Scott Levy - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:24 PM EST (#10425) #
I would only trade Batista for Konerko if the Jays got Clement or another pitcher to put into the rotation. If it's Hinske for Konerko, the Jays would see a bump in the 2005 payroll, but would be saving around $10 million combined in 2006 and 2007.

I'm not a fan of Konerko, but for one year, and getting rid of longer contracts (Batista or Hinske) seems like a fair exchange. I would assume the White Sox would have more interest in Batista for their rotation.
_Rich - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:24 PM EST (#10426) #
You may be right, Jordan, but Lee or Konerko earning their salaries is a far likelier proposition.
_Ron - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 09:50 PM EST (#10427) #
"In 557 AB as a rookie, Kirby Puckett hit 0 (ZERO!) home runs."

Huh?

I thought Kirby hit 4 HR's in his rookie year in 85.
_Ryan Lind - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:08 PM EST (#10428) #
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/puckeki01.shtml
'85 wasn't his rookie year.

Good call, Magpie.
_Rich - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:08 PM EST (#10429) #
In an alternate version of the Rob Neyer game, guess who:

Age 19 - A: 417 AB, 1 HR
Age 20 - AA: 360 AB, 0 HR
Age 21 - AAA: 433 AB, 13 HR

If you guessed Shawn Green, you can claim your prize. Now, I realize that:

a) Green was in AAA at age 21 and hit .344;
b) These numbers do not include good walk totals (if memory serves);
c) Alex Rios likely won't grow up to be Shawn Green.

At the same time, it is fair to say that Rios does still have a chance to develop power, especially as he fills out his 6'6" frame. I would still deal him for a consistently good offensive player, but does not include Nick Johnson. If the Jays are not going contend this year I think it would serve them well to see if Rios can do more than what he showed last summer. I suspect he just might.
_Ron - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 10:30 PM EST (#10430) #
Just saw a report on the Score when the topic of trade rumours involving Jay players came up (I assume one of them is Rios)JP said it's false and the there's a lot of stuff made up during Winter Meetings.
Named For Hank - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:04 PM EST (#10431) #
there's a lot of stuff made up during Winter Meetings.

I'm going to have a T-shirt printed that says that.
_Ryan B. - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:12 PM EST (#10432) #
I'm going to have a T-shirt printed that says that.

Let me know how that goes over at work or school.
_Magpie - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:20 PM EST (#10433) #
I thought Kirby hit 4 HR's in his rookie year in 85.

That was his sophomore year, and gave him a career total of 4 HR in 1248 AB. The next year, he hit 31.

Rios obviously doesn't look much like Puckett physically - Kirby always looked like a bowling ball. But I think it is useful anyway. Puckett obviously changed his approach at the plate after two seasons. Its as if once he was sure of his ability to hit the ball, he then started trying to hit the ball hard.

Similarly, I don't think Rios' lack of power was a matter of him not being strong enough - I think it was a matter of his approach. I didn't think he was swinging very hard. Simple as that. He was just trying to get his bat on the ball.

I think it was a young player's coping mechanism with his first exposure to the major leagues, and once he started having some success with it, he wasn't going to mess around. Not in mid-season.

I don't expect him to hit 31 HRs - but I expect him to be swinging harder. I predict 14 or 15 over the course of the season, without giving away any batting average.

Also of interest: Phil Bradley hit 0 HR in 322 AB in 1984. Bradley was built like a fullback, as Buck Martinez would surely confirm, and he hit 26 HRs in 1985 (and broke Buck's leg in two places).

I also seem to remember Jim Edmonds looking like a singles hitter as a rookie - he had 5 HRs in a little less than 300 AB.
_Ron - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:29 PM EST (#10434) #
Jeff Blair said the Angels might offer Clement 8.5-9 mil a season. Basically Clement's price doesn't fit into the Jays budget anymore and they're moving on.

JP had scheduled a meeting that was suppose to take place with Koskie's agent tonight.
_GeoffAtMac - Friday, December 10 2004 @ 11:51 PM EST (#10435) #
Interesting...I don't get the Globe, I read the Hamilton Spectator 'cause it's free and I'm a student (I should note that the Spec has some of the worst baseball coverage I've seen in an Ontario paper). But I am intrigued by this Konerko / Lee for Hinske / Batista type deal.

Peronally, I am not so soured on Batista -- he had a rough year, yes that is true, but he has been reasonably cost-effective. I don't think that he should be our closer mind you, but that isn't my choice I guess. Hinske on the other hand, I am not sure he has been reaching his potential -- but even at $3 mil a year, he is not the worst deal ever made. Konerko would be sweet, but only if we could sign him to a longer term deal, and without sacrificing the club (likely not going to happen).

Here's what I have been thinking about

(1) Towers + Hinske for Brad Wilkerson of the Nats
(Why hasn't anyone been talking about Wilkerson? That guy has all the skills and he has played in Canada before) I like Towers a lot actually, but he seems to just be filling up the 'pen and is being held back by being here. Then sign Wilkerson for a longer term deal (maybe 3 years).

(2) Sign Corey Koskie.

(3) Sign Steve Kline -- this guy is really good, and we could flip him at the deadline should other teams (and they will be) interested. Maybe like 2 yrs $6 mil? Or 2 yrs $5.5 mil. (I am crossing my finers that he is not the next Ligtenberg)

(4) Sign Ted Lilly again to another extension! He is a relative bargain, and I think he is quite solid, just hitting his prime in his career. By the time Bush and Chacin have developed further, he will be adding quality starts to T.O.

(5) Wish list? Get Justin Miller out of here -- he sucks, and doesn't seem to be getting better. If I could grab anyone who I think is "grabbable" right now? I really like Brung-Hyu Kim and Dave Roberts of the BoSox -- neither of them are big pieces in the puzzle right now, and we could get them for cheap. Maybe even flip one of our current fielders (like Reed Johnson + someone) for some bullpen help, and use Dave Roberts to give some nice speed to the team. Kim will return to form, and hopefully soon. Worth a look if the risk is low enough -- we could even flip Hattig back to the Sox for him.
_Ryan B. - Saturday, December 11 2004 @ 12:05 AM EST (#10436) #
Doesn't Kim make like $5M next sesaon though?
_6-4-3 - Saturday, December 11 2004 @ 12:30 AM EST (#10437) #
Dugout dollars has Kim making 6 million next year (but only 5 of it counts against the cap apparently). I'm pretty sure that Boston would eat a large chunk of the contract, but Kim has so many problems, physical and mental, that I wouldn't want to see him in Toronto.

And I like Wilkerson, and Bowden's signings make me think anything is possible, but a 4th starter and an overpaid 3rd baseman probably won't get Wilkerson.
_greenfrog - Saturday, December 11 2004 @ 01:11 AM EST (#10438) #
Some comments on the Jays in the most recent "Triple Play" on the BP website:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3666
_R Billie - Saturday, December 11 2004 @ 02:00 AM EST (#10439) #
Carlos Lee has an $8.5 million option in 2006. But Hinske is due $4.3 million that year and Batista $4.75 million. Carlos Lee is also not just empty power having a cumulative performance of .288/.352/.504 (.856 ops) with a respectable 1.5 k/bb ratio and a similarly respectable strikeout every 6.8 at bats while still maintaining a respectable .216 isolated power. This guy is a good hitter and still just 28 years old. His groundball to flyball ratio over that time is under 0.8.

Let's compare him to the two year splits of a current Jays' hitter:

.297/.343/.516 (.858 ops), .219 isolated power, 1.75 k/bb, 7.4 ab/k, 1.1 groundball to flyball ratio

Now granted Lee is two years older than Vernon Wells and he plays just a passable left field as opposed to a stellar centerfield. But those are the reasons he's available in trade rather than untouchable. Maybe he's streaky but so are most hitters. Delgado was streaky like nobody's business. So is Wells himself. The net evidence shows that Lee is very capable with the bat and still in his prime though. And this guy was very highly regarded in his younger years so maybe he's figuring things out now.

If you can get Lee and reduce his salary to the $4 or $5 million range the next couple of years by sending salary the other way, I think you've made a very solid trade. Assuming you don't have to give up much else. I would personally prefer Lee to Konerko.
_R Billie - Saturday, December 11 2004 @ 02:03 AM EST (#10440) #
having a cumulative performance of .288/.352/.504

I meant to mention that those numbers are his three year splits.

I only used two years for Wells discounting his first full year to make it slightly fairer because of the age difference.
_Caino - Saturday, December 11 2004 @ 02:23 AM EST (#10441) #
""Given the market situation... Jays are certainly in tough. Time for JP to get creative. How about Halliday & Hinske & Rosario to the Rangers for Soriano (2B), Texeira (3B), and Adrian Gonzalez (1B)?""

Ya Shill. That is perhaps the worst idea I've heard since the 'Jump to Consluion" mat.

""It would certainly be a mid-stream change in philosophy... but as they say sometimes desperate times call for desperate measures. Great managers (and leaders) are the ones that take aggressive but calculated risks...the kind that work when they're evaluated with hindsight. IMO JP has to date shown only a real affinity to avoid risk.

Don't get me wrong... his philosophy is solid and will eventually pan out... but he's going to need another 5-6 years to see it. If I'm Ted Rogers I'm just not that patient.""

Honestly man. You've been watching too much Apprentice. Ted Rogers is not Donald Trump. I doubt he would advocate this agenda.

""Is there any chance of a Rios for Kotchman swap? The Angels need a CF (a position which Rios can play), and the Jays need a 1B. Seems like a good fit, though Anaheim may want more than just Rios.""

I agree, I would love to get Kotchman. The one glarring hole is our system is that lack of a big bat. I would do anything to get him in our lineup for the next six years. Lilly and the O-Diggity (Hudson).
I mean I know they have Kennedy. But maybe when he gets injured mid-season, and the Angels are in the play-off hunt, and could use a good picther... Who knows, it could happen. And hey, if that doesn't work, we could always package Hinske with our best player and a decent prospect for Gonzalez, Texiera and Soriano.
_Caino - Saturday, December 11 2004 @ 02:27 AM EST (#10442) #
I agree with Matthew E's entire post.

""they say sometimes desperate times call for desperate measures

The times are not that desperate.

Nothing bad is about to happen to the Jays; they could, if they chose, start the season with the current roster. Plus they have some money to spend.

They have some problems to address, but the best way of doing it is by staying calm and sticking to their guns.

The times are never so desperate that you should turn your back on your best judgment.""

I mean, we have to be patient. The only way we're goina win (under the current regime, and with the current financial approach) is by assembling a good core group of young guys. And we have that. Which is to say, we have everything but The Slugger. Which is why J.P. gives away the farm, and his first born for a Kotchmanesque guy, IMH(and often mistaken)O.
_Caino - Saturday, December 11 2004 @ 03:03 AM EST (#10443) #
""The Jays seem less familiar to me now than at any point in the last 20 years, though I can't quite figure out why.

Probably because the relentless media attack is worse than it has been at any point in the last 20 years. Don't let them form your opinions for you.""

Ya, what's up with the Toronto meida. Especially The Star. I never rememebr reading more negativity in the sports section in my life. I mean we have some blatently negative people writting about our sports teams every day. If it isn't Griffin, it's Cox. If not Cox, then that Fetschunk guy who covers basketball. I'm suprised they haven't hired a reporter to cover curling criticize every aspect of the sport.
Thomas - Saturday, December 11 2004 @ 09:07 AM EST (#10444) #
Why would Anaheim want Rios? As in, they have Guerrero, Finley, Anderson, Rivera and DaVanon (and Erstad, who they refuse to use in the outfield). I doubt they're paying Finley $7 million to sit on the bench.
_R Billie - Saturday, December 11 2004 @ 08:36 PM EST (#10445) #
I think the Rios musings were before they signed Rios. Since they have a centerfielder they aren't going to need Rios now.

I still think they might trade Kotchman. Maybe in a package for Randy Johnson.
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