Still no word yet whether either koskie or clement were offered arbitration? I've been trying to find out but can't seem to get the information anywhere yet.

http://rotoworld.com/content/playernews.asp?sport=MLB
Noah, try Rotoworld, they update every few minutes with the latest signings and arbitration situations. COMN

P.S. Still no word yet on them from where I stand

http://www.startribune.com/stories/509/5125443.html
Bad news for Toronto -- the Twins offered Koskie arbitration (COMN).

tomorrow should certainly be an exciting day. I feel like there's a ton of GM's that have been holding on to signings until today. Im sure we'll see a flurry of activity tomorrow which will end the quiet boredom of the last few weeks.

According to Rotoworld, Jose Lima and Hideo Nomo were declined arbitration by the Dodgers.

See, this is why Jordan's the man. He's prime rib steak to my chicken Mcnugget. But the news you have brought has displeased the Gods...

yah that really is too bad about koskie... I can't see JP giving up the picks to sign him. The question really has to be asked though... with Delgado leaving where's the offence going to come from on this team.

yah that really is too bad about koskie... I can't see JP giving up the picks to sign him. The question really has to be asked though... with Delgado leaving where's the offence going to come from on this team?

Rotoworld now has the Koskie stuff up and interestingly enough they have specific mention of the Jays in their commentary. I seriously doubt though whether JP would give up that pick for him. Anyone have an idea as to what level of a draft pick he would cost?

The Baltimore Orioles re-sign OF B.J. Surhoff to a 1yr contract and decline arbitration to P's Omar Daal and Buddy Groom 1B David Segui and OF Marty Cordova

The Chicago Cubs re-sign 2B Todd Walker to a 1yr contract and sign C Henry Blanco to a 2yr contract offer arbitration to P Matt Clement and decline arbitration to OF's Moises Alou Tom Goodwin and Ben Grieve 2B Mark Grudzielanek IF Ramon Martinez C Mike DiFelice and P Kent Mercker

The Houston Astros re-sign OF Orlando Palmeiro to a 1yr contract sign P Russ Springer to a minor league contract offer arbitration to OF Carlos Beltran and P Roger Clemens decline arbitration on 2B Jeff Kent and P's Dan Miceli and Darren Oliver

The Kansas City Royals re-sign P Kevin Appier to a minor league contract and declined arbitration to OF Juan Gonzalez 3B Joe Randa IF/OF Desi Relaford and C Kelly Stinnett

The Los Angeles Dodgers re-sign P Elmer Dessens to a 1yr contract offer arbitration to 3B Adrian Beltre P's Wilson Alvarez and Odalis Perez and C Brent Mayne decline arbitration to OF Steve Finley P's Jose Lima Hideo Nomo and Paul Shuey IF Jose Hernandez and C Todd Hundley

The Minnesota Twins re-sign P Brad Radke to a 2yr contract and offer arbitration to 3B Corey Koskie and P Terry Mulholland

The New York Mets re-sign P Mike DeJean to a 1yr contract and declined arbitration to P's Ricky Bottalico John Franco and Al Leiter OF Richard Hidalgo 1B Mo Vaughn and 1B/3B Todd Zeile

The Philadelphia Phillies re-sign P Rheal Cormier to a 2yr contract

The St.Louis Cardinals re-sign P's Matt Morris and Cal Eldred and OF John Mabry to 1yr contracts offer arbitration to SS Edgar Renteria and C Mike Matheny

The Arizona Diamond Backs decline arbitration to OF's Danny Bautista and Quinton McCracken IF's Carlos Baerga and Greg Colbrunn and P's Jeff Fassero Mike Fetters Matt Mantei Shane Reynolds Scott Service and Steve Sparks

The Boston Red Sox offer arbitration to P's Pedro Martinez Derek Lowe Mike Myers and Pedro Astacio C Jason Varitek SS Orlando Cabrera 2B Pokey Reese and 1B/OF David McCarty and decline arbitration to P's Terry Adams Curtis Leskanic Ramiro Mendoza and Scott Williamson IF Ricky Gutierrez and OF Ellis Burks

The Cleveland Indians decline arbitration to P Rick White

The Colorado Rockies offer arbitration to P Jamey Wright and C Todd Greene and decline arbitration to P's Shawn Estes and Steve Reed SS Royce Clayton and OF's Jeromy Burnitz and Mark Sweeney

The San Diego Padres offer arbitration to P David Wells decline arbitration to P's Andy Ashby and Antonio Osuna SS's Rich Aurilia and Alex Gonzalez and 1B's Robert Fick and Dave Hansen

The Sanfrancisco Giants decline arbitration to P's Dustin Hermanson and Robb Nen

The Texas Rangers offer arbitration to OF David Dellucci and decline arbitration to P's Jeff Nelson Jay Powell and Jeff Zimmerman IF's Andy Fox Herbert Perry and Eric Young 1B Brad Fullmer and OF Brian Jordan

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays decline arbitration on IF Rey Sanchez C Brook Fordyce and P Todd Ritchie

Steve Kline was not offered arbitration by the Cards in a surprising move. He'll probably be out of our price range, but boy would it be nice to have a reliable arm like his in our bullpen.

Y'all want offense next year?

Well, got seven words for you ... New Blue Jays Designated Hitter Juan Gonzalez!

"Y'all want offense next year?

Well, got seven words for you ... New Blue Jays Designated Hitter Juan Gonzalez!"

The same Juan Gonzalez that is 35 years old and has combined to only play 185 games the past 3 seasons?

And that's not even figuring his off the field "stuff"

Robert Fick and Greg Colbrunn. Could one of them be the '05 version of Greg Zaun or Frank Menechino for the Jays.

Sorry, Ron, I guess I forgot to include the "sarcasm" and "/sarcasm" tags in the Gonzalez post.

The Jim Bowden Award of the day goes goes to:

Jim Hendry for signing Henry Blanco to a $2.7 million/2 year deal.

Matt Clement was offered arbitration by the Cubs, according to Rotoworld, who also said:

"The teams looking sign Clement already knew this was coming. He could soon decide between a group of suitors that is believed to include the Indians, Blue Jays and White Sox."

JP moved quickly last year making a number of moves around the winter meetings. It's time to move forward and I'm curious to see where this team is going.

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/7975715
COMN - Not that this is news...

It just brings a bigger tear to my eye to officially know, through AP, that the King will not return to the land of beaver and beer unless he's in his away uni.

Koskie and Clement both of interest to the Jays will now cost draft picks to sign.

Noteable names not offered arbitration:

Hitting: Troy Glaus, Magglio Ordonez, JD Drew, Jose Valentin, Steve Finley, Jeff Kent, Richard Hidalgo, Jermaine Dye, Jeromy Burnitz, Juan Gonzalez, Greg Colbrunn, Joe Randa, Barry Larkin, Ben Grieve.

Starting: Kevin Millwood, Al Leiter, Russ Ortiz, Woody Williams, Jose Lima, Hideo Nomo, Esteban Loaiza, Shawn Estes.

Relief: Dustin Hermanson, Matt Mantei, Rob Nen, Steve Kline, David Weathers, Chad Fox, Chris Hammond, Paul Shuey, Antonio Osuna, Buddy Groom, Omar Daal, John Halama, Todd Ritchie, Steve Reed, Mike Fetters, Jeff Fassero, Curt Leskanic, Terry Adams, Ramiro Mendoza, Esteban Yan, Al Levine, Kent Mercker.

This is really the moment Ricciardi has been waiting for - as near as I can tell, he got to like Delgado, but he always absolutely hated that contract. His whole premise was that "once we're not spending 40 percent of our money on one guy, we'll have a chance."

The team is almost guaranteed to be better in 2005 than in 2004 anyway...

Delgado says he has offers from Seattle and Texas. Arlington is an awfully nice place to hit....

I heard that the Jays wouldn't have to give up a First Round Pick, "due to their poor finish last year".. Is that true??

The Star says the Jays aren't interested in any of their Free Agents except Zaun, then it lists Gomez, delosSantos, and Woodward... What about Myers?? Anyone hear anything??? I thought he might make a reasonable 1yr option at DH.

and Berg.. they listed Berg

Names that catch my eye as being good free agent replacements (non-arbitration) for Delgado. (ba/obp/slg-2004 salary games played in 2004 if low) Given all were not offered arbitration I'd suspect they are all available at 80% of last years salary.

Glaus (251/355/575-$10.5 58G), Ordonez (292/351/485-$14 52G), Drew (305/436/569-$4 not sure why no arbitration), Kent (289/348/531 could be moved to 1b or 3b), Hidalgo (lousy last year but career 273/350/497-$12.5), Burnitz (283/356/559-1.2 but in Colorado), Gonzalez (276/326/441-$4 but has been good in the past and could be cheap), with cheap option Colbrunn (bad year, lifetime 289/338/460 could be a platoon partner (bats right))

For $7 mil (Delgado offer) I'd take Glaus, Drew, or (maybe) Kent. Ordonez would be tempting at $5, others at $3. What are they being offered? No idea, but I suspect Drew and Glaus are being offered more while Kent will want to stay at second base. Leaving the Jays chasing the cheaper options and hoping one bites.

They already resigned Myers. It was a minot league contract with an invitation.

sorry about that, I found him, apparently he's resigned for 700K.. is that true??

The way I see it, we still need an Arm (7Mil), a Bat (7Mil) and Zaun (1Mil), which would make the Payroll, 52.5Mil.

Oh yea, and Speier is Arbitration Eligible, I'm assuming we keep him at 80% of last year, (1.2Mil)

No way that Speier takes a pay cut. I'd say a minimum 20% increase.

Put me in the camp that is glad to see Carlos go. For the first time in a half decade, the Jays will be able to spread their payroll across the diamond. As well, with Delgado gone, the leadership on the team will fall to Halladay and Wells, who I think will perform better on that front.

I heard that the Jays wouldn't have to give up a First Round Pick, "due to their poor finish last year".. Is that true??

yeah... b.c they finished in the bottom half of w/l overall... but they would still have to give up an early #2 pick... Not desirable for jp...

His whole premise was that "once we're not spending 40 percent of our money on one guy, we'll have a chance."

Does that leave room for other premises? Like "once I learn not to count on Pat Hemtgen and Tanyon Sturtze, we'll have a chance". And "once 20% of the payroll isn't tied up in Hinske, Lightenberg and Batista we'll have a chance". "Once I learn not to be a dick to players with talent, we'll have a chance".

Seriously- this problem when he came in was that he inherited a lot of bad contracts, ones that limited his room to work. Then he signed a bunch of mediocre players to bad deals, mostly short term, but still limiting his ability to afford Delgado. If they only offered Delgado $7 million, it's a huge mistake. If JP only left himself $7 million to offer Carlos, that's a big problem. The last 2 month should've been spent trying to get some payroll of the books. And that includes F-Cat, who was resigned at a raise despite playing poorly this year.

the Jays will be able to spread their payroll across the diamond

Is that necessary a desirable thing? Is having 3 average or slightly below players better than having one superstar? I think I'd rather have the superstar.

Delgado at $19 mil or whatever is a horrible deal. But if the Jays could have brought him back at, say, $11 mil, would it really have been that bad? Are the Jays better off getting 3 players at $4 mil each instead?

And that includes F-Cat, who was resigned at a raise despite playing poorly this year.

It doesn't seem like we agree too much dp, but I agree with this.

If a decent FA pitcher (Pavano, Clement, etc.) is going to go for $8 mil this year and Delgado is going to go for $11 mil, why not spend the extra $3 mil? Or put it this way:

Would you trade Delgado for Pavano and F-Cat?

I wouldn't - though they'll probably end up costing the same amount of money.

Delgado at $19 mil or whatever is a horrible deal. But if the Jays could have brought him back at, say, $11 mil, would it really have been that bad? Are the Jays better off getting 3 players at $4 mil each instead?

Well, that was pretty much the thrust of my post, so I'm not sure what there is to disagree with. There's simply no one who can replace Delgado. And if I were Carlos, I wouldn't play for $1 million more than Eric Hinske will make in 2006. I'd also be living in a much nicer apartment without a leaking roof. And I'd have gold-plated toilet paper. But I digress...

How about this- would you trade Delgado for Batista and Pavano? I wouldn't...and with the price of FA pitchers this year, it seems like Batista could be moved, even with something coming back. JP, IMO, lets character (or his perception of it) influence many of his decisions. This has lead to Hentgen, Sturtze, F-Cat, I assume it played a roll with Hinske, who was signed to the same deal as Vern despite clearly inferior talent, Batista over Escobar, Bordick, and Myers. The only cases where this has worked in the Jays' favor are Myers and Bordick. Delgado, at least from my view, is a guy with a lot of very positive personal characteristics. And he gets major points for his outspoken stance on Vieques. Great ballplayer, loves Toronto, good human being= $12 million.

This isn't to say I like the Ash method- giving guys above-market contracts so they'll avoid even sniffing the free agent waters- but there's got to be a middle ground.

I think Delgado was our only hope of adding a big name free agent. I can't imagine the Jays landing Clement, Glaus et al without overpaying. That leaves signing FA with significant warts. Was Lieber offered arbitration? If not, that's who I'd go after. For a reasonable price and term I'd go after Dye and DH him (hope he takes a Chili Davis path and extends his career). Can Colbrunn play first? Platoon with Cat at first?

Was Zaun offered arb?

Zaun was the only Jay offered arbitration.

No way that Speier takes a pay cut. I'd say a minimum 20% increase.

Sadly you may be right... but if so, then its a problem with the system (IMHO)

3 Questions if you please:
1) What's the major league Minimum next year? $310? $315?

2) How does calling a player up in September affect this? Does he get 1 months worth of his $310, or does he stay at his minor league rate??

3) I'm assuming that a guy on the 40man but in AAA is drawing about 50K against the Jays major league payroll unless he has some other deal... is this reasonable??

thanks

Zaun was the only Jay offered arbitration.

Meaning Speier was not...
if we don't bring him back then that seems to suggest we need one of Chacin/Peterson/etc, AND a Free Agent arm.

I believe Zaun was offered arbitration.

Now that I've thought about it, I guess the Delgado departure was inevitable. If he had been offered arbitration, the arbitrator would very likely award Delgado more money than he would be able to make in the free agent market, and he would be a 10-and-5 player, so he would
basically have a no-trade clause. And then, next year, you'd get to do it all again.

I also think that Delgado's agent probably would not have instructed him to sign unless the Jays were offering top dollar. It's in Delgado's best interest to have teams get into a bidding war for his services, and they won't be able to do that unless he turns down the Jays' offer.

Having said that: I don't see how the Jays are going to replace Delgado. There aren't any equivalent bats out there. Spending $3 million each on a bunch of free agents doesn't solve the problem: that's what Pittsburgh does, and it doesn't work.

As for the baseball writers: some of them are basically just looking for whatever excuse they can find to bash J.P., Rogers, and the Jays. I think that the Jays' ownership and front office are far from perfect, but reading certain baseball columnists isn't an enjoyable experience. It's the literary equivalent of having to wake up at 6 a.m., take an ice-cold shower, and eat cold oatmeal for breakfast - why should anyone put themselves through this torture? As I've said before, certain writers won't be happy until J.P. is fired, Rogers sells the team, or both.

And, while I'm on my soapbox: before we bash Rogers too much, I think we have to realize that there aren't any alternatives. It's not as if Ted outbid a horde of multimillionaires eager to sink dollars into the club; no one else wanted the Jays, or even thought that buying the team would be anything other than futile. On Rogers' budget, the team is likely doomed to mediocrity for years to come - but the team is no longer hemorrhaging money, they now own their own ballpark, and baseball is likely to remain in Toronto for a while longer. Five years ago, relocation or contraction seemed a real possibility - and I, for one, am grateful that we still have a team to support, even if it's crappy. As the saying goes, any day above ground is a good day.

Too bad they dealt Phelps- a Phelps/Olerud platoon would've work well for a year, probably for around $2 million. Olerud is .390/.441 against RHP over the last 3 years, lost significant power last year...

Can Colbrunn play first? Platoon with Cat at first?

Colbrunn can play 1B, but I wouldn't want to see Cat there often.

Starting at Terry Adams, till Delgado, I show the Jays dumping guys worth $30 Million off the 25 man roster.. Should allow for a bunch of new faces.

Are any of File, Lopez, Douglass, Clark, Kershner still under Jays control??

But if the Jays could have brought him back at, say, $11 mil, would it really have been that bad? Are the Jays better off getting 3 players at $4 mil each instead?

I am guessing that Mike is not asking this latter question rhetorically, that he really believes the answer to be no. If so (and I don't mean to put words in his mouth), I certainly agree.

In one of Bill James' Abstracts (can't remember which, not prepared to plow through them and find out), he makes a claim that is exquisitely simple, but enlightening nonetheless, at least for those of us who may not have thoroughly thought out the matter ourselves. (There is almost certainly an analogy in the field of economics that Mike could share with us.)

Basically, it has to do with the way major league talent is distributed. IIRC, James suggested that while the bell curve may well approximate the entire population's baseball skills, only the very far right end of that curve represents professional players. Focusing specifically at that end of the curve tells us a few things of interest:
* replacement level talent is freely available; the left end of the curve is wide and, to its left (AAA and AAAA players), it is wider yet
* superstar talent is proportionately rare
* the curve is not a downward sloping straight line, but rather a curve, meaning that the median-skilled player is left of midpoint on the the curve -- this is why there are always fewer players above average than below

The third of these is, I believe, relevant to the Delgado comment made by Scott and commented on by Mike. Where major league GM's fall down is when they pay the middle class of players proportionately middle class (or better) salaries. Such players do not deserve such compensation. A middle class player making $5M or $6M probably deserves, based on talent distribution, around $3M or $4M.

When the market started correcting itself a couple of years ago, and the middle class players were being non-tendered left and right, it seemed to me that major league GM's were recognizing their problem and addressing it. It was the bloated middle class that was killing them, not the stars.

That trend appears to be reversing itself. And worse. We seem again to be seeing available moneys being spent on whomever is out there, without consideration for their worth. Got $22.5M burning a hole in your pocket and need a SP? Sign Kris Benson. Got $21M in pocket change and need a SP? Sign Jaret Wright.

Back to Delgado. Would I rather see Delgado and two rookies for $11.6M or this same money being spread out over three middling players? Easily the former. All the "spreading out" will guarantee is a bunch of mediocrities.

Well, that was pretty much the thrust of my post, so I'm not sure what there is to disagree with.

I meant generally. I agree with you 100% today. I guess I should have clarified that. :)

Zaun was the only Jay offered arbitration.

Meaning Speier was not...
if we don't bring him back then that seems to suggest we need one of Chacin/Peterson/etc, AND a Free Agent arm.

Speier did not have to be offered arbitration at this time. He is not a free agent... He does not have to be tendered a contract until Dec. 20. If he isn't then he would become a free agent at that time, but JP has said that the Jays would offer him contract.

Daryn: H. Clark signed with Pittsburgh, J. Kershner with Boston and S. Douglass with Detroit. All minor league deals. I'm not sure if File and Lopez accepted their minor league assignments or opted for free agency. I would imagine that they took free agency, especially File.

Last night was just the deadline to offer arbitration to your own free agents. The Jays still have some time to decide on Speier and John McDonald.

Back to Delgado. Would I rather see Delgado and two rookies for $11.6M or this same money being spread out over three middling players? Easily the former. All the "spreading out" will guarantee is a bunch of mediocrities

I sum my agreement with this by suggesting that the difference between the "rookies" and the "middling" players could be very very small, or negative...

Thanks Marc, SF... got it!

Chuck: I couldn't have said it better myself. :)

I meant generally. I agree with you 100% today.

Well, if not baseball, we agree on music 90% of the time...

OT: Mekons, anyone?

I may be in a minority, but I for one have not missed Escobar on this team. For the amount of lambasting JP has taken on letting Kelvim walk, for the price of Kelvim + Keilty, the Jays got Batista and Lilly with cash to spare; to say the Jays didn't come out ahead over the next couple of years to me is ludicrous.

And why all the hating on Toronto sports management? They're criticized either for not spending on big players and letting the kids play like JP is, while being mauled for spending on older players like the Leafs are; which is it Toronto Star? They're either killed by columnists for being losers, or when they do win, like the Argos, they're completely ignored. Chaps my arse.

dp, November 18, 2003:

Hentgen seems like a good move, potentially a great one if he stays healthy and the Jays put good defense behind him. The risk is low enough. JP's 3/3 so far this off-season in my book.

dp, December 8, 2004:

Does that leave room for other premises? Like "once I learn not to count on Pat Hemtgen and Tanyon Sturtze, we'll have a chance"

JP, IMO, lets character (or his perception of it) influence many of his decisions. This has lead to Hentgen...

Am I the only one who would be very excited to see Dustin Hermanson as the closer, flipping Batista back into the rotation? Methinks he could be had for a fairly affordable sticker price.

Grand Funk out.

Grandfunk: Yes.

They're criticized either for not spending on big players and letting the kids play like JP is, while being mauled for spending on older players like the Leafs are; which is it Toronto Star?

Exactly right, Fozzy. The only way to reconcile it is that JP has joined Pat Quinn as an official Bad Guy (because they're occasionally prickly or secretive around media types), and therefore whatever they decide must be the Bad thing to do.

Put me in the Leafs' camp, insofar as signings are never the wrong thing to do, unless the acquired or re-signed player will block a cheaper, big-league-ready and equally productive alternative. Why should fans care about whether Ken Klee could've been had for $500,000 cheaper? Frankly, if it makes him happier and potentially more productive, count me in.

There are exactly two types of players whose signings would make no sense to the Jays:

1. A centrefielder;
2. A middle infielder.

Every other free agent could potentially help. The worst thing that can happen is they play badly, which is a legitimate risk anyway for about 18 guys on the Jays' current projected 25-man roster.

On Rogers' budget, the team is likely doomed to mediocrity for years to come - but the team is no longer hemorrhaging money, they now own their own ballpark, and baseball is likely to remain in Toronto for a while longer. Five years ago, relocation or contraction seemed a real possibility - and I, for one, am grateful that we still have a team to support, even if it's crappy. As the saying goes, any day above ground is a good day.

Gosh, Dave, I just couldn't disagree any more strongly. First of all, "mediocrity" is not assured. The Jays were terrible last season. And they're much worse today then they were yesterday. Much-improved health and very creative offseason moves will both be required to even attain mediocrity, or better.

More fundamentally, I disagree with the idea that Toronto is somehow lucky to even have a big-league ball club. Four million fans came, over and over, to see a contending club. Four million people live within easy commuting distance to the game. How many past attendance records would Toronto need to have in the books, and how many more persuadable sports fans are necessary to be in the area, to make a parsimonious owner stop blaming us for being an inadequate market?

Ultimately, it's a recipe for competitive failure and eventual departure when fans (and Internet communities) lower their expectations of the organization to literally zero. Why the hell do we not deserve any return whatsoever on our entertainment dollars? In my capacity as longtime fan, I will feel betrayed if the Jays spend one penny less that $53M on this year's roster. They can't blame the budget for losing Carlos if they don't even spend the allocated budget.

This is why Blackhawks fans are staying away in droves. Their management team has frequently faced "fish-or-cut-bait" dilemmas, and has repeatedly elected to pocket the cash and not to compete. After all, spending money may not pay off in the standings...a better placing in the standings may not pay off in revenue...and hey, the worst they can finish is last. But try telling Chicago fans that they should be just thankful they have a hockey team at all. I dare you.

(Parenthetically, I'd like to add that although the Blackhawks obviously have a longer past, from 1980 to the present the trajectory of Chicago as a hockey market has bore a striking resemblance in terms of relative potential market size and relative interest in the sport to Toronto as a baseball market.)

Anyway, the long-awaited "payroll flexibility" is at hand. I want to see some moxie this offseason -- and a plan to compete.

Soon.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20041208&content_id=919635&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp
Leiter has signed with Florida, COMN.

I sum my agreement with this by suggesting that the difference between the "rookies" and the "middling" players could be very very small, or negative...

Agreed.

Except for those cases where money spent is totally out of whack with ability, the incremental gain in production from a $300K player to a $5M player is LESS than the incremental gain in production from a $5M player to an $10M player. Teams seem to be in a bug hurry to "upgrade" from $300K to $5M, but not so from $5M to $10M, even if there is greater productivity gain in the latter.

Jonny-

I was for Hentgen- on the assumption that JP had scouted him and thought he was going to be effective. I've supported several of his decisions that've turned out poorly because I thought he was, y'know, a good evaluator of talent. I didn't watch Hentgen pitch much in Baltimore. I didn't watch tapes of his delivery, see any reports about his health before making my comments. But I'm also not a major league GM- and that's what I think we have to look at. The decisions JP has had agency in- where it depends on evaluating what a FA can be expected to do in the upcoming year- have they worked out?

He may be a great scout for young players/pitchers. But maybe not a good major league GM. He certainly isn't a SABR type. And the way he's assembling the offense, the approach to hitting that he's instituted, hasn't produced results. He dealt Werth because he strikes out too much, gave up on Phelps for similar reasons. This does not inspire confidence. Put Werth and Phelps back in the picture for '05 and the offense at least has a couple of guys with upside.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20041208&content_id=919635&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp
It also says in the Leiter article that Alfonseca is close to signing a two year deal with the Marlins.

Am I the only one who would be very excited to see Dustin Hermanson as the closer, flipping Batista back into the rotation? Methinks he could be had for a fairly affordable sticker price.

I am guessing that few Bauxites will share your enthusiasm but at least one lady (and likely many) would be thrilled to see him again on Canadian soil. I have a friend (another D. Hermanson) who lived in Montreal during Dustin's time there. He received so many calls from Dustin groupies that he had to unlist his number.

but they would still have to give up an early #2 pick... Not desirable for jp...

I really don't get this philosphy. I mean, what percentage of draft choices ever even get to the major leagues, let alone have productive careers? And unlike other sports, MLB draft choices are far-in-the-future prospects at best. Failing to sign a proven, quality ML player who is within your budget and fills a need, just to avoid losing a draft pick that most likely will not wind up being a mediocre-or-better ML player, and won't make it to the majors for years anyways, is just plain silly. Then again, I tend to feel that way about a lot of JP's "philosophies".

Hey you guys,

It seems as if the image/oppinion of Ricciardi is in the process of shifting throughout the entire Blue Jay Fan Base and the methods/ philosophies of the regime are being questioned far more often then they were a year ago. I believe this is due to the team's inability to live up to expectations last year in conjunction with the often heard 'playoffs by 2005' phrase.

I think it is important for us to realize that being active and succesful in the free agent market is not the best way to build a succesful club. Given that, I feel like a broken record when I say that a team must build from within to be succesful. This is especially true with small market teams, as Oakland and Minnesota have modeled.

I feel that JP has done what he can with what he has. Almost every move he has made has looked reasonable at the time it was made, with the possible exception of the Kerry Lightenberg deal. But with every calculated risk, there is chance for dissapointment. Really, I don't think any sabermetrics or scouting would have predicted that Lightenberg would essentially lose all of his ability in one year. My biggest pet peeve as a Jays Fan is the individuals who put on record every move that has worked out poorly, failing to realize the inherent risk that was realized by the management at the time they were made.

Furthermore, we have to understand that the Ricciardi process may be a long and tedious one, as it takes time to rebuild a franchise from the ground up (Oakland and Minnesota were both bad for a long time). While some home grown players have faltered under his regime, many have flourished. Likewise, two of his draft picks already look to be solid major leaguers with many others on the way.

While it would be nice to keep Delgado, or aquire some other big name, I can't help but respect the fact that Ricciardi is sticking to his plan of cost efficency and self-sustainablility, and not succombing to the pressure of the fans and media.

Having said that, lets all hope Wells and Halladay bounce back next year.

I really don't get this philosphy. I mean, what percentage of draft choices ever even get to the major leagues, let alone have productive careers?

That's why in baseball you want to have as many draft picks as you possibly can. Not to say this should stop them from signing a Koskie or Clement(for the right price of course), but the more picks you have, the better your chances to produce major league players are. You don't want to get into the habit of pissing away draft picks.

JP has been seriously hampered in the last few off seasons by a lack of payroll flexibility and virtually no major league ready pitching in the minors. Seriously, who do you expect to get on the FA market for $1-2M? You're just signing guys who you hope will perform for you while biding your time until the minors can supply you with a cheap supply of players. Well, the supply of players is almost here and there is significant amount of payroll flexibility. JP's true test starts now since this is what he claims to have been waiting for.

http://rotoworld.com/content/playernews.asp?sport=MLB
Well as of 8 or so minutes ago rotoworld is reporting that Chris Gomez of Toronto Blue Jays fame has signed a minor league contract with the Orioles.

Individual draft picks tend to be highly overrated. I'd be surprised if 25% of 2nd round picks became solid ML players. The draft as a whole is what is important. On the other hand, here are the Jay's last four 2nd round picks:
Brandon League
David Bush
Josh Banks
Curtis Thigpen

jbrando-

What worries me is not the results, but the way they've been achieved. The offensive philosophy doesn't seem to be going in the right direction. JP inherited a lot of talented hitters. Delgado heir, the only one in the system with the potential to replace his power, was dealt (presumably) because he'd get too much in arbitration, while F-Cat, a talented but fragile hitter with little upside, was retained for similar money. This and other moves/comments indicate an offensive philosophy I don't have much confidence in.

But I could be wrong. Maybe a team full of Hill/Adams/Cat type hitters will produce results once everything comes together. But it seems like they've squandered some good talent with very little to show for it.

dp, I think Josh Phelps' complete regression and loss of everything that made him the apparent heir to Delgado was the main reason he was traded, not arbitration. I liked Phelps a lot, but the fact that he looked completely lost at the plate didn't help his cause, and by the ASB, he really wasn't looking like a solution for the Jays at all; the fact that he's a platoon player on the Indians furthers this notion.

I agree with MatO's comment about JP being hampered by lack of payroll flexibility. HOWEVER, I have thought and said for a long time that Delgado leaving was the most likely scenario. I know a lot of Jays fans have thought and said the same thing. I imagine JP suspected that to be true as well.

So where is Plan B? JP has had plenty of time to prepare for it. Let's see what he can do.

It's far too early to pass judgement on the type of players Hill or Adams might be. A year ago, many at this site had very low expectations for Adams. Now he's the starting SS. Between Syracuse and Toronto, Adams hit 7 HR after August 15. Is this what we can expect from Adams? I don't know and neither does anyone else.

It's far too early to pass judgement on the type of players Hill or Adams might be. A year ago, many at this site had very low expectations for Adams

Couldn't agree more. I was one of those who had low expectations from Adams after 2003. It seems that he hit the weights in the off-season. He looks bigger and stronger, particularly in the lower half of his body, and the results tend to support that. It doesn't mean that he'll hit 15 homers in 2004, but there is no reason to believe that he can't, and if he does, that's quite a package you have there in a middle infielder.

I believe this is due to the team's inability to live up to expectations last year in conjunction with the often heard 'playoffs by 2005' phrase.

I believe you're largely right, although for the record, I have never been and will never be a big fan of Ricciardi or any of the other so-called Moneyball disciples.

I think it is important for us to realize that being active and succesful in the free agent market is not the best way to build a succesful club. Given that, I feel like a broken record when I say that a team must build from within to be succesful.

Unless you're the Yankees, you can't build an organization just through free agency, no question. But to be sucessful, you absolutely MUST be "active and successful" in the FA market to augment the talent you've developed.

Almost every move he has made has looked reasonable at the time it was made, with the possible exception of the Kerry Lightenberg deal.

Actually, I thought the Ligtenberg deal looked really good at the time...

Not to say this should stop them from signing a Koskie or Clement(for the right price of course), but the more picks you have, the better your chances to produce major league players are.

Exactly. I don't suggest an organization should go around giving away their picks for the hell of it, but I think it's ridiculous to not sign a quality major league player who is in your price range and about whose performance you can be reasonably certain, just to avoid giving up a draft pick that MAY someday far in the future turn into a decent ML player.

But I could be wrong. Maybe a team full of Hill/Adams/Cat type hitters will produce results once everything comes together. But it seems like they've squandered some good talent with very little to show for it.

Dp, I agree completely.

I have never been and will never be a big fan of Ricciardi

Never say never -- what if it all works out?

but I think it's ridiculous to not sign a quality major league player who is in your price range and about whose performance you can be reasonably certain, just to avoid giving up a draft pick that MAY someday far in the future turn into a decent ML player.

Right. And who's saying that the Jays would do such a silly thing? They're not going to throw picks away, but I really don't think they'd take a pass on a perfect match for them just because they had to give up a draft pick. More likely, the pick would be the factor that pushes an on-the-bubble option off of the bubble.

Right. And who's saying that the Jays would do such a silly thing? They're not going to throw picks away, but I really don't think they'd take a pass on a perfect match for them just because they had to give up a draft pick. More likely, the pick would be the factor that pushes an on-the-bubble option off of the bubble.

Exactly. I was just responding to the assertion above that having to give up a pick would make it less likely that the Jays would sign guys like Clement and Koskie, who seem to me to be good fits and who may be within the Jays' price range (although I would rather see a trade for Durazo than a Koskie signing personally).

Never say never -- what if it all works out?

If it all works out, then Ricciardi's a genius, but I will still loathe OBP/3-run HR/"defense is overrated" philosophy he relies on. Call me a traditionalist if you must...

Defence is overrated? Where did that come from? It seems to me Toronto and Oakland are moving in the exact opposite direction where defence and pitching is crucial. Russ Adams and Aaron Hill weren't signed because they could hit 40 HRs a year, he was selected for being a solid offensive/defensive player.

If anything, I would say the 'new Jays' philosophy is grinding out station to station, working the pitcher and winning low-scoring games. The OBP/3-run HR would be much more in the mold of the Yankees, helped by the fact that their 1-8 hitters can do both quite well. The Orioles also seem to be more in that mold than the Jays are now, though, frankly, I don't think they're doing it very well.

If anything, I would say the 'new Jays' philosophy is grinding out station to station, working the pitcher and winning low-scoring games.

Ricciardi said several times over the past season that the problem with the offense was that they weren't hitting enough home runs, completely ignoring the fact that I can't even recall the last time the Jays genuinely "manufactured" a run because of the apparent mandate to not "give up" outs. Sounds like the strategy of OBP and the 3-run HR to me.

"Defence is overrated? Where did that come from? It seems to me Toronto and Oakland are moving in the exact opposite direction where defence and pitching is crucial"

Pitching yes, but not defense. Again, to paraphrase the man himself, JP has said essentially that he looks at strong defensive ability in a position player as a nice luxury, but not something that the Jays can afford to rely on.

Yeah, but I'm pretty sure that was prior to the year that just finished, and before OBP became every GMs main focus of signing players. The strong points of almost all the kids drafted in the last few years are defence first, OBP second, and power last on the list, and I think that's helped along by the fact that Gabe Gross and Quiroz are probably the two top power hitters in the high minors, and they'll likely max out at 20HR a year.

I know what you're saying, but the method you're talking about doesn't work very well when only Vernon Wells and sometimes Eric Hinske can hit the 3-run homerun.

And I'm not sure how you can say defence is only a luxury to have when now every position has above average defence, catcher is probably the worst, and he's a pretty good defender, and between Zaun and Quiroz and Cash they're pretty damned good.

Ugh, proofread Fozzy, proofread.

I know what you're saying, but the method you're talking about doesn't work very well when only Vernon Wells and sometimes Eric Hinske can hit the 3-run homerun.

My point exactly. I hope JP knows that as well. ;-)

Yeah, but I'm pretty sure that was prior to the year that just finished, and before OBP became every GMs main focus of signing players.

I can't recall when I heard him make those comments about defense (it may have been quite a while ago, I guess I assumed his sentiments hadn't changed), but I know he said last year several times that the horrible ineffectiveness of the offense was attributable primarily to a lack of HRs. Granted though, the complete lack of power WAS a problem, and I may have read more into his comments than he intended.

The strong points of almost all the kids drafted in the last few years are defence first, OBP second, and power last on the list, and I think that's helped along by the fact that Gabe Gross and Quiroz are probably the two top power hitters in the high minors, and they'll likely max out at 20HR a year.

If they are putting a much greater premium on defense then that's great, it gives me much more faith in JP. I would still like to see the Jays be much more active in manufacturing runs though instead of always playing the station to station game...

And I'm not sure how you can say defence is only a luxury to have when now every position has above average defence, catcher is probably the worst, and he's a pretty good defender, and between Zaun and Quiroz and Cash they're pretty damned good

Well, SS too since it will in all likelihood be manned largely by a rookie next season, but you're right that the Jays' defense is much improved. My point was, again from what I had heard JP say at some point in his tenure as GM, that defense (at the time) was something he considered nice but not a top priority.

Thinking about why some of the shine is off of JP...

• Initially promised a contender by 2004/2005 even though most thought 2006/2007 was more realistic
• Rumour about Gagne being rejected in the Quantrill trade
• Horrid 2004 after promising 2003
• Hinske, his first big deal, moving from 'great' to 'bad' last year
• Assortment of bad free agent signings, especially pitchers
• Top young players all coming from the Ash era (Hudson, Wells, etc.)

Young players JP drafted are just reaching the majors now (Bush, Adams, etc.) but fans only notice the team struggling and hearing we have top prospects coming sounds a lot like what we've heard since mid-1995 (the Cone trade). If the Jays struggle in 2005 then JP will be on thin ice. 2006 will be his last chance to put a contender on the field or Rogers will look at saying 'goodbye' and eating the last year of JP's contract. Then a new guy comes in and enjoys the benefits of a good minor league system much like JP enjoys Wells, Hudson, Halladay, etc.

Here is hoping JP finds diamonds in the rough this winter and we have a contender (or at least some false hope early) in 2005, thus encouraging Rogers to open the vault in the winter of 2005/2006.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20041208&content_id=919824&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp
According to mlb.com, the Indians are targetting Clement as their #1 free agent. COMN

Lee, I think you can do both things you say: runs can certainly be manufactured by station to station, especially if players are grinding out walks, working the count, and hitting a good amount of doubles and homers. Not only are they manufactured, but they knock out the starter in the 4th or fifth inning and can do so without giving up outs.

I can remember when the Jays were on their big winning streak in 2003, it just seemed like they grinded out every at-bat until it was a full count, and you could see the frustration on the pitcher's faces as they were knocked out of the game prematurely. Ah, memories...

Wow, according to Rotoworld through the Associated Press, "the Blue Jays offered Carlos Delgado just a two-year, $12 million deal before declining to offer him arbitration last night." Wow.

Initially promised a contender by 2004/2005

JN, let's try to be a little less disingenuous. Your hyperlink is to a Geoff Baker quote, not a J.P. Ricciardi quote, and even at that it quotes "the Jays" and doesn't say anything about "promised".

I for one will be much more impressed if you can find a quote from ANYONE circa June 2003 saying they didn't think it was realistic for the Jays to contend in 2005.

Paying what would probably be a higher per year salary to Matt Clement and offering only $6 or $7 million to Delgado really doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

I understand the main difference is that Clement would not require a no trade clause and is younger (and maybe healthier) but then we're hearing rumours about an offer to Koskie which is as much as $5 million. Now that REALLY doesn't make sense to me although again I understand the difference is that Koskie can be traded.

My fear is that the Jays are going to take this money freed up by allowing their only impact offensive player to leave and sign up a bunch of middle of the road guys...the type of middle market deals that have historically killed teams.

There is an instance where three $4 million players equal one $12 million player. That is when those 3 players acquired actually produce more than their salary level indicates. But usually these players are only available through trade and it's not exactly easy to complete those. If not trades then pursuing risky players coming off health and performance problems.

JG, the article I used was as close as I could find to a quote I clearly remember from 2001 when JP was hired. He was expecting to have a contender faster than Oakland and to do it by 2005. Hard to find articles online from 3 years ago. Now that I'm home from work and can do more searching I've found a couple on JP being hired.

Fun quotes...
Not only must he cope with the current core of underachievers and a declining Canadian dollar but, in baseball terms,a modest budget around $75 million US. JP said..."The payroll (in Toronto) is fine." Heh. Wonder what he'd have said if he was told it would be stuck at $50 million, or about where Oakland is now.

From when he signed the extention to 2007...
Toronto's player payroll is expected to rise to an estimated $64-million US next season [2003].

However, I just can't find that quote I am sure he made back when he was hired. Sigh.

It is interesting though that the Jays, when JP was hired, talked and had a much higher budget with a much lower dollar. Y'think JP wishes he had that $64-75 million budget again (that is, without Mondesi and various others sucking up dollars)? What could the Jays do with $10-$25 million more a season? And I mean other than resign Delgado

I can't recall when I heard him make those comments about defense (it may have been quite a while ago, I guess I assumed his sentiments hadn't changed)

I think what JP meant by his comments on defense is that the Jays have limited options when it comes to bringing in players. Because of that, finding a player who fits, is attainable, and is also good defensively is a luxury or a bonus.

I was thinking about Delgado and why the Jays wouldn't want to keep him long term (outside of just salary).

A big thing that comes to mind is the 32 rule. Once a player hits 32, especially a slugger at 1B/DH, their career starts to decline quickly.

Mo Vaughn declined at 31, from a 300/400/550 player to 272/365/498 to 259/349/456 to out of baseball

Frank Thomas for 33-35 was injured, 252/361/441, 267/390/562. Last year at 36 he finally did what he did before 33, 271/434/562 (well, didn't hit 300 but OBP & Slg about right).

Jeff Bagwell from 28-32 had an OBP no lower than 424 and Slg% no lower than 557. Since then (4 healthy seasons) his OBP has been no higher than 401 and his Slg% was above 524 only once (568).

The less said about Jason Giambi the better (fell apart at 33).

Basically, what I'm trying to say is Delgado will, almost certainly, not be as good in the next 3 years as in the past 3. Last year was his first sub-400 OBP since 1999. His Slg% was the lowest since 1997. His Avg was the lowest since 1997 as well. Leading to his worst OPS+ (128) since 1997. Given his age (33) I don't see this trend reversing . Unless Delgado goes to a high run environment odds are good his raw numbers will be closer to 2004 than 2003 from now on. His OPS+ will probably stay in the 130's which is very, very good but not what whoever signs him is hoping for. One more 150+ could be in him but betting on it is a poor idea.

Players born in 1969 (3 years before Delgado) who had 500 plate appearances both in 2004 and 2001.

Brett Boone, Jeromy Burnitz, Joe Randa (just shy by 15 AB), Tony Womack.

Players with 500 Plate appearances in 2001 who didn't get there in 2004

Jeff Cirillo, Marty Cordova, Delino DeShields, Damion Easley, Juan Gonzalez, Ken Griffey Jr., Shane Halter, Jose Hernandez, Fernando Vina, Kevin Young

Now, heading out of 2001 we have...
Jeff Cirillo 313/369/473
Marty Cordova 301/350/506
Delino DeShields 234/342/353 (after a near 300 season)
Damion Easley 250/323/376
Ken Griffey Jr. 286/368/533 (after a 40 HR season)
Juan Gonzalez 325/380/590
Shane Halter 284/343/467
Jose Hernandez 249/299/443
Fernando Vina 303/356/418
Kevin Young 232/313/399

Many of those guys looked as good to sign as Delgado does right now. None played full time (400+ times to bat) in 2004. Just one even had 300 plate appearances.

Jeff Cirillo 313/369/473 ---> 213/263/293
Marty Cordova 301/350/506 ---> Did not play
Delino DeShields 234/342/353 ---> Did not play
Damion Easley 250/323/376 ---> 238/333/457 (255 PA)
Ken Griffey Jr. 286/368/533 ---> 253/353/513 (346 PA)
Juan Gonzalez 325/380/590 ---> 276/328/441 (137 PA)
Shane Halter 284/343/467 ---> 202/248/351
Jose Hernandez 249/299/443 ---> 289/370/540 (238 PA)
Fernando Vina 303/356/418 ---> 226/308/270
Kevin Young 232/313/399 ---> Did not play
----
Brad Ausmus 232/281/341 ---> 248/303/325 (453 PA in 2001)
Bret Boone 331/377/578 ---> 251/318/423
Jeromy Burnitz 251/349/504 ---> 283/358/559
Joe Randa 253/310/386 ---> 287/348/408
Tony Womack 266/304/345 ---> 307/348/385

So the top group played full time in '01 but not by '04
Bottom group played full time in both seasons.

Jeromy Burnitz, Joe Randa, and Tony Womack improved, all others either dropped in quality or in playing time or both.

3 out of 15 players who did as good in 2004 as they did in 2001. Or, basically, what anyone signing Delgado is hoping for in 2007.

Did I cherry pick to get this? No, I just picked the group who is the closest to Delgado in time frame. I suspect I could've picked any group and had a similar result. Once you crack 32 your baseball skills are going into decline phase with rare exceptions (drugs or no drugs). Will Delgado be the next Griffey Jr (consistant performer suddenly injury prone) or Jeromy Burnitz (improving after 32)? Would you want your job to depend on Delgado being one of the 3 or would you rather take the 3/15 risk (20%) of Delgado making you look bad in 3 years?

Woody Williams signed with the Padres? Rotoworld talks about the contract tonight as though it was reported a while ago, how'd I miss this?

Thinking about Roster "balance"... stars and rookies versus middling players.

Doc(10.5), Lilly(3.1), Batista(4.75), Ligtenberg(2.5), Hinske(3) and Cat(2.7) represent $26.5 of $53 Million... exactly half...

in fact the only other "contracts" are
Wells (2.7), Mighty Mouse (.65), and Myers (.7)

I've been promoting 3 signings, a $7Mil Bat, a $7Mil arm plus Greg Zaun (+-1Mil) to make the $53Mil...

Now I'm thinking that the $14Mil, if spenton 5 Cat-Lilly types and if 4 of them pan out... then we could leave something like Chacin, Gross, Johnson, Bush on the development path...

Would we not be better off???

Thinking more on that..
Do you think $14 would get us (2004 salaries in brackets):
Paul Byrd (7.0Mil), Omar Daal(4.5), Tony Clark(.75) Danny Bautista(4.0), and Chad Fox(1.2)

Maybe
Olerud (7.7), and Darren Oliver(.75)fit better than Byrd and Clark... Or Osuna (.75)

That could be interesting...
play with these guys, let Adams, Rios, Quiroz, League, Chacin develop in AAA and sign the big Free Agent Next year...???

Once you crack 32 your baseball skills are going into decline phase with rare exceptions (drugs or no drugs).

Which is why, if you insist on signing a 32 year old, the safest bet is someone like Delgado. Great players give you a margin - they can and probably will decline, but its all right (if you can afford them, anyway). They're still good enough to help you win.

Whereas average players will decline to the point where playing them does more harm than good.

P.S. before I bring the ceiling down on my head, maybe not Rios, maybe Johnson, maybe not Chacin, maybe Towers.. all that stuff.. maybe you don't like Daal, maybe you do like ...

but signing 5 guys is a different strategy than signing 2.

The question is what helps us be an interesting team, and position us for a big run in 2 or 3 years...

I'd rather use minor league veterans than pay $14 million for a collection of Byrd, Daal, Clark, Bautista, Olerud, Oliver and Fox. Byrd is the only interesting one but I wouldn't pay more than $2 million for him.
Daal and Oliver couldn't pay me to sign them. $5 million could get all of the players mentioned.

Signing five OK guys, rather than two good guys is fine, but remember that is an extra three roster spots wasted. The Jays have 38 players on their 40 man roster with two openings, which would mean three players would have to be dropped (and possibly claimed off waivers) to make room. Would you trade Jason Arnold, Kevin Frederick and Ryan Glynn for Daal, Fox and Clark? I doubt that I would.

I really like the question Daryn raised, so I've made it the question of the day. Check out the new thread.

And there's a new Jays Roundup, too.

Many of those guys looked as good to sign as Delgado does right now.

Not really. I question the value of the comparison you make since other than Jr. Griffey and Juan Gonzalez, all of the others were significant less talented than Carlos to begin with (I mean really, Marty F'n Cordova???).

Actually, I should've pointed out I was grabbing _all_ players who had 400 AB's and were the same age in 2001 as Carlos is now (roughly). The drop offs were all over the place, not just the stars (Griffey & Gonzo) and not just the mediocre players (such as Cordova who had a really nice 2001 at 301/350/506).

As to the star having the ability to have value in 3 years even at reduced levels, yes they would but you are paying for premium talent. Given the contracts we are hearing about now, signing Delgado for over $10 million a year for 3 years is taking one heck of a risk. Troy Glaus, who is reportedly getting $11+ a year ($45/4 according to ESPN), at least is in his peak years (28-31 over the course of the deal) and if healthy should be worth the cash (big if there). Delgado on the other hand is worth a one or two year deal but 3 or more is taking a big Shawn Green type risk, namely that you'll pay star money for a solid, but mediocre player by the end of the contract who is untradable without tossing in tons of cash.