Can pitching and defence alone make for a winning team?

I certainly don't think so. The Jays will need offense, and whether that comes via Delgado or someone else isn't important (for the record, I'd prefer that Delgado remain a Jay).

The Jays will have what appears to be a good starting staff, the defence is improving incrementally every year, and the bullpen will surely be better than the past two years. But the problem they had in '04 was scoring runs; removing your best threat on offense can't help that situation.

Even with improvements by Wells, Rios etc, I can't see the Jays maintaining the level of offensive production they had last year (especially if Crozier is the answer to the void left by Delgado).

Can pitching and defence alone make for a winning team?

How much improvement can you expect from a team in general, from the Blue Jays in particular, from one season to the next? Easy to be optomistic- Dave Berg won't be starting any games in left field, they instantly become better just by not getting SS production from their DH (Phelps), and they shouldn't have middle infielders starting at 1B. Automatically, it seems the offense has to be better, even minus Delgado, just by clearing away some of the chaff. But it's weird- the Jays went from an all-hit/no-pitch team to an all-pitch/no-hit team in one year, and now it seems there's no way back to balance without bringing in a major free agent. There's no one with significant power in the minors.

Their best move, IMO, is still to try and grab Floyd from the Mets and just stick him at DH- if you send the Mets Lightenberg plus a prospect, maybe with the Mets sending some cash back, I think it gets done, and pretty cheap. Floyd's a good bet for .370/.500, not a big injury risk at DH. That doesn't replace Delgado, but comes close for about 1/3 of the cost. Aside from Austin Kearns, I can't think of an available player who will apporach that production at so little cost...

It is possible to win with a league-average offence.

Here are the current Jays who could reasonably have positive RCAA numbers in 2005: Wells, Rios, Gross, Catalanotto, Menenchino, Adams, Hudson, Hinske, Johnson and Quiroz. In other words, every single player on the club can do it, based on their age, and past performance in its entirety. It is unlikely that all will. It is also unlikely that if Delgado leaves, the offence as a whole will be any more than slightly above average.

It is possible to win with a league-average offence.

Absolutely. But will the Jays be anywhere close to league average in 2005?

AL Team EQR in 2004
----
1. Red Sox - 962
2. Yankees - 891
3. Indians - 867
...
10. Twins - 795 (Winning with a league-average offence)
11. Mariners - 740
12. Blue Jays - 711
13. Devil Rays - 710
14. Royals - 684

Considering the Jays are just about to lose their best hitter (and possibly the best hitter they've ever had), I'm not overly optimistic.

The thought of Carlos leaving the Jays just makes me sad.

A quick question for those keeping track - if Delgado leaves, will JP have enough budget room for both Clement and Koskie? or would that require the Jays to move Hinske?

Delgado's contract is now off the books, so there's still money in the bank and some more shopping to be done this off-season. We won't know what the Jays' offence is capable of until we see just what that offence is going to be.

Late last season, we were discussing the possibility of the Jays stealing a Glaus or a Sexson off the market on a one-year deal. The current free-agent prices, however, make it very unlikely that any kind of power bat will be available at a discount. Trades are always possible, of course, but that's a tough market too: the Reds reportedly asked the A's for Rich Harden in exchange for Austin Kearns, so that should give you an idea of what the Jays are facing out there. Keep your expectations in check as to what the Jays can realistically accomplish this winter.

The wild card in all this, of course, is the steroid controversy. Leaving aside altogether the morality debates, there's a possibility that the players' union could cave in under tremendous political pressure and be forced to accept a wide-ranging steroid-testing apparatus. If that happens, a lot of players are going to show up to spring training next March slimmer than ever. To follow this scenario to its conclusion, other teams' offences might not be as fearsome in 2005 as they have been in the past. It's not likely, but it's still worth thinking about.

The other aspect of the steroids situation is that players like Delgado, who has always supported testing and appears to be as clean as they come, might be viewed by the marketplace as sources of legitimate power, and they will come at a particular premium. Delgado is as good as gone -- to the O's, Mariners, Yankees or Dodgers, most likely -- and although he will do very well on the market, he won't be offered $18.5M, and accordingly, the Jays can't offer him arbitration. It's a cruel world sometimes.

I have, up until now, bought in to the CW that Delgado can't be offered arbitration. But, after thinking about all the variables, i thought why not??

It's generally accepted that if arb. was offered and accepted, it would cost the Jays anywhere from $5-10 million more than Carlos is worth. That's assuming that you value his production at somewhere in the $8-10 million/year range, which most people here seem to. That's IF he accepts, which seems unlikely to me.

The reason it seems unlikely is b/c there seems to be interest in him from several teams. Even if you assume a somewhat soft market for his services (which is entirely possible), I can't believe that some team won't sign him for at least 3 years @ $12 million/per (without worrying about the lost draft picks). Would he take a one-year arb. deal from the Jays for $15-$18 million and risk having a serious injury and/or performance dropoff, effectively killing his chances at a lucrative contract next offseason? I doubt it.

So worst case, he accepts. After last season's disappointing step backwards and this offseason's purchase of the Skydome, I would think that the ownership's top priority now is getting the fans back in the seats by the time the team is a bonafide contender (2006-7?). I don't think anyone thinks that this team can reasonably contend next year so if the budget isn't allocated optimally, so be it. It's only for this year and at least the team doesn't have to take the PR hit of letting the face of their team for the last decade walk - without anything in return. Plus, you'd have a great trading chip to possibly net a few prospects at the deadline if he'd waive his 5/10 rights. And maybe even Godfrey would be able to get a few million in contingency funds from ownership in case he did accept (to lessen the affect on JP's budget).

Another plus is that maybe if the market really is soft, the ability to continue negotiating with him may be able to produce a 3yr./$25-30m type deal to keep Carlos here (probably just dreaming).

In the end, this is just from a long-time Jays fan not wanting to see my favorite player leave the team without at least trying to keep him or getting anything in return. I'm likely biased in my thinking but to me, offering arbitration makes sense from all sides - PR, Ownership, GM - in declining order. Make any sense??

Given the interest in Delgado, I don't think it's an unacceptable risk to offer him arbitration. I guess it depends on whether there is a real possibility that an arbitrator could award him something like $15 million.

One thing I've noticed: the teams that have expressed interest in him, according to the rumours, are Seattle, Baltimore, and the Mets. Aren't there are any contending teams that want him? (I suppose that the Yankees will try to sign him if they can succeed in getting Giambi's contract voided.)

Absolutely makes sense. I think that at this point offering arbitration is a risk that Rogers has got to take. Of course, it isn't my cash... but there is no way that Delgado doesn't get several three year offers from various teams in this marketplace. If he accepts arbitration, then you move him at the trade deadline to save the additional cash. Or does the no-trade clause remain in effect?

Dave, if it goes to arbitration, the arbitrator cannot reduce his salary more than 20% under the terms of the CBA.

DAC I think your analysis is solid but I don't agree. The Jays could offer arbitration but I don't they should just to get a draft pick. The chances of him accepting are too great. I don't think they can make an offer hoping it is not accepted.

If we compare Toronto with Oakland, Florida, or Minnesota it would appear that Delgado's loss will not be fatal. In fact look at all the great players these teams have lost, yet they continue to compete. These teams make good baseball decisions and don't worry about PR. PR is what got the Jays big burdensome contracts like Mondesi's and Delgado's in the first place.

If the Jays are going to be successful they have have to maintain the maximum payroll flexibility and make good baseball decisions regardless of personality. Having 1/3 your payroll tied up in one untradable guy does not make sense. When you look at Delgado and Halladay as 1/2 the payroll, it makes even less sense.

I think Halladay can easily take the place of Delgado as the face of the franchise - he has a Cy Young for goodness sake.

While I favour offering Delgado arbitration, if the Jays don't get major contributions from their top prospects over the next couple of years, the team won't be competitive with or without Delgado.

Ducey,

First, my argument wasn't really that it should be done purely as a PR move - my point was that it would be a good PR move with a pretty solid chance to work out as a good baseball move, period. It's not just a draft pick that they stand to gain - it's two high draft picks. I acknowledged that there is potential for things to not work out so well but I just felt that the risk/reward factor of offering the arbitration is always stated a lot more negatively than it should be.

Second, this would not affect flexibility past this year (or maybe not past the trade deadline). Comparing this hypothetical decision to the Mondesi or original Delgado contracts is just making a dishonest argument, imho. And besides, it's not like you can replace Carlos' production with a few million dollars - so if, in a worst case scenario, you overpay him by 50% for a single year when you're not likely to be in contention - SO WHAT?!?

As for the face of the franchise - yes, Halladay is a humble, hard-working guy, has a Cy Young and will likely continue to be a star. I'm fine with him (or Vernon Wells for that matter) to be the next "face" of the team. But he doesn't play every day and he hasn't built a HOF calibre career in a Blue Jays uniform - I don't think that should be understated.

so if, in a worst case scenario, you overpay him by 50% for a single year when you're not likely to be in contention - SO WHAT?!?

That's an interesting argument. Let's say the Jays can't contend this year -- then what's the downside of giving Delgado a big pile of money? Will it affect the youngsters, players we're developing, anything like that? What's the impact on the future of the team?

NHF,

I obviously think it has very little impact on the future of the team, as evidenced by my comment. On top of my earlier reasoning i'd like to add this - it's not like this would take away $$ from the younger pre-arb. players who will make up the core of the next contender. OTOH, it would giving them a veteran presence who has exemplified professionalism during his career (not a huge factor but worth noting).

All this being said, if we KNEW that Carlos would accept arb., if offered, I might have a different opinion on this. But the positives to offering arb. (potential draft picks/deadline prospects, extended negotiating window, PR) are too strong to be negated by the worst case scenario that was described above.

I agree with Dak, I think sufficient interest in Delgado exists, and a long term contract in the 40 million dollar range will be offered, Delgado would be very unlikely to turn down guaranteed money in this range for a chance of a 14.8 million (20% reduction) arbitrated settlement. The arbitrator can analyze all factors including preformance (which despite a late season splurge were still down from his norms) and the existing marketplace which has been soft for players of this status for the past few seasons. (I don't think any off us have an idea where this years market will settle)

Now even if he does unlikely choose arbitration the Jays have done something odd, Godfrey is telling everyone that this years budget has not been finalized. Either he's playing a high stakes poker game or the team is prepared to swallow a potential( although highly unlikely) arbitrated settlement.

At any rate a very interesting period.

I'm just thinking off the top of my head, but is it possible to work out a handshake deal where Carlos accepts arbitration this year and plays for more than he's worth (say 14.8 mil), under the oral condition between him and the team that he signs an extended contract for the next 3 or 4 years after that? Would it not be equivalent to front-loading a contract?

I'm starting to agree- offer him arbitration. Especially from the PR standpoint it makes sense. He won't accept, and it might make teams back off just enough that the Jays look like a better option. Does Seattle or Baltimore want to give up a pick? They're not going anywhere, and giving up a pick means Delgado hurts theyir rebuilding process. The Mets will give up the pick without thinking, but they're stupid. Then again, so is Bavasi.

I'm not certain ,but since Seattle finished in the bottom half of the standings I don't think they give up their draft choice. Instead the Jays would get 2 first round supplemental choices in this scenario. Can anybody clarify this?

With all the interest in Delgao out there, I don't see why the Jays don't offer him arbitration, and if he accepts then try and trade him - sure they will have to eat 3-5 million of his salary, but at least they'll get something back....

Today deffinalty is a sad day. I hate to see Carlos go and really thought after the jays bought skydome he would stay. While I realize this wont have an effect on next years budget, could they not offer him a 3 year deal thats backloaded or has half of next years salary deffered. Is it not pretty safe to assume 2006 and beyonds budget would have room for Delagdo at a reasonable rate say 9 or 10 million per year?

I acknowledged that there is potential for things to not work out so well but I just felt that the risk/reward factor of offering the arbitration is always stated a lot more negatively than it should be.

I tend to agree. I think the reward is worth the risk, especially if ownership would buck up a few million if the worst case scenario occured.

That's an interesting argument. Let's say the Jays can't contend this year -- then what's the downside of giving Delgado a big pile of money? Will it affect the youngsters, players we're developing, anything like that? What's the impact on the future of the team?

Even with Delgado the Jays are unlikely contend, BUT they are far less likely to finish in the basement. There is something to be said for being competitive, IMO being competitve has more benefit to young players than finishing in last place does(not to mention the benefit in fan support). A competitive/winning attitude now will help in the future. And it's not like Delgado would be taking time away from a prospect anyway.

Basically, I don't think the worst case scenario is that bad.

One question, is there some kind of system in place to prevent a team and a player from making an 'under the table' deal so that the team offers arbitration > player rejects > team gets draft picks?

I'm not certain ,but since Seattle finished in the bottom half of the standings I don't think they give up their draft choice. Instead the Jays would get 2 first round supplemental choices in this scenario. Can anybody clarify this?

No, Seattle would just give up their second round pick instead of their first, so we'd get a supplemental and a second round pick.

I suppose it's not impossible that Delgado turns down arbitration, but it's extremely unlikely. If we ever had any legitimate shot at re-signing him at the $7 million/year, 2 year offer that was reported, then there is absolutely no way Carlos turns down the $18 million he would get in arbitration plus whatever deal he could sign a year from now

With all the interest in Delgao out there, I don't see why the Jays don't offer him arbitration, and if he accepts then try and trade him - sure they will have to eat 3-5 million of his salary, but at least they'll get something back....

Delgado can't be traded due to his 5-and-10 status. (or is that 10-and-5.. I always get that mixed up)

One question, is there some kind of system in place to prevent a team and a player from making an 'under the table' deal so that the team offers arbitration > player rejects > team gets draft picks?

What would be in it for Carlos? He's certainly a more attractive free agent if you don't have to give up draft picks than if you do? Why would Delgado make a back door deal that makes him worse off?

If it wasn't clear from the context, the second sentence above isn't a question. :)

Delgado can't be traded due to his 5-and-10 status. (or is that 10-and-5.. I always get that mixed up)

Hmm, dam I wasn't sure if he qualified for that rule or not... but I guess that means he would have to approve any trade (if I understand the rule correctly - which I might not) - so much for that idea :(

When would Delgado have to accept or decline arbitration by? Does the arbitrator deside the length of the contract as well? I don't mind the idea of a big 1 year contract but 15+ per for 2+ years wouldn't be the best thing to do.

The wild card in all this, of course, is the steroid controversy. Leaving aside altogether the morality debates, there's a possibility that the players' union could cave in under tremendous political pressure and be forced to accept a wide-ranging steroid-testing apparatus. If that happens, a lot of players are going to show up to spring training next March slimmer than ever. To follow this scenario to its conclusion, other teams' offences might not be as fearsome in 2005 as they have been in the past. It's not likely, but it's still worth thinking about.

ESPN did a juice tracker this year (or something similarily named). Offense was marginally above where it was the previous couple years.

Which could mean that there's no positive affect from steroids, or pitchers are using just as much as hitters and they cancel each other out. Or perhaps it means nothing.

Braby, (1) December 9th and (2) it's always one year.

Thanks Leigh...and then does the same process happen next year? or is he an "unrestricted" Free Agent?

I'd offer arbitration just to keep JP from signing a couple of mediocre free agents 8) Far better to leave the team as is for a year and find out what the kids (Rios, Adams, Bush, etc.) can do. Delgado blocks no one as Cat won't be at first most likely. Odds are losing Delgado just opens a slot for some mediocre mid-range free agent or trade. Keeping Delgado via arbitration keeps the budget at a level fans can live with, keeps a name player around, and avoids seeing the Jays toss cash as players who may or may not be league average.

So, to me the best situation is...
Delgado at first via arbitration
Adams/Rios/Gross/Quiroz getting regular playing time
Bush/Chacin/League etc getting chances to pitch regularly
Hudson/Hinske/Wells showing what they can do
Johnson/Cat/Myers/etc trying to show they can be useful parts in 06/07

Better last again than 3rd forever.

Let the kids play, sign/arbitrate Delgado!

http://66.74.230.5/delgado.htm
Hey everyone,

Got some good news and some bad news.

Here's the link.

Sorry, I should have looked into this more, it's not being reported anywhere else right now!

Can someone see if they can find confirmation anywhere alse?

The story is dated Monday and the URL is an IP address not espn.com, could be a fake.

I think it's a fake. Just did a circuit around the sites and a google news search. Nothing there to corroborate that link....I hope there's still hope, I hope.

If you go just to the IP address it provides a series of links, most of which seem to go to something called Forker Baseball Sim League.

I just did a search on ESPN.com which is powered by yahoo and there's nothing. I'm thinking its a fake, there's no way that happened yesterday and JP doesn't mention it on the FAN this morning.

It's a fake, but a really brilliant one. Kudos to whoever came up with it!

Mind you, I said *months* ago that Delgado would go to the Mariners, so it wouldn't surprise me if this fake turned out to be a very accurate prediction.

In his short time at the helm, JP's track record with mediocre FAs isn't too good...

Batista- failure so far; could rebound
Lightenberg- failure
Sturtze- ugh
Hentgen- worse
Adams- bad/gone

If you would move Hinske, which IIRC some of you are against, how mcuh of his contract would you be willing to eat to do it?

Ths is one of those moments I wish the real world was like Baseball Mogul and you could just send Hinske, Lightenberg and Batista to a high payrool team by throwing in a prospect...plenty of money right there to afford Delgado.

I read in a newspaper article yesterday (sorry I dont remember which paper and dont have time to find the link!) that one GM was saying that he thought there would be a couple of cases where the team would offer arbitration with a handshake agreement with the player that they would not accept it. Does anyone think this might be the case with Delgado? I don't see why he wouldn't do this. As has been pointed out here several times, he stands to get a 3 yr deal worth 30-40 million from some other team but by doing this it also gives him the opportunity to resign with the Jays after today if he feels that the other situations are not a good fit for him. Maybe it's just wishful thinking but it makes sense to me from both the team and Delgado perspective.

Hmm... Good point on the idea of Delgado saying 'I won't take arbitration' and the Jays saying 'our offer is good until January when we can't negotiate no matter what'. It hurts Delgado slightly in negotiations with other teams but keeps a door open for him. It hurts the Jays slightly as their budget won't be set until Delgado decides which could be early January. But both gain something in the draft picks for the Jays and the safe contract & more negotiating time for Delgado.

Pistol posted this in another thread:

You'd be better off not offering him arbitration and using that money in the draft and taking good players late in the draft for big money.

Now there's a good argument against offering arbitration: sign the big money holdouts in the draft...provided there are any that are worth it.

Is anyone up for starting some kind of protest over having an owner who won't spend any dollars??? Seriously... I would consider bringing down a loudspeaker to the dome or something and yelling for a couple hours...

What would spending big money right now, with the young talent not yet ready, get the Jays?

What would spending big money right now, with the young talent not yet ready, get the Jays?

Well, some wins would be nice.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not advocating an Orioles-style spending spree aimed at snapping up all those post-30 veterans. But let's look at Blue Jays: They're coming off one of their worst seasons ever, and now the best player the franchise has ever produced is leaving (probably). Why should the average fan bother going to games in 2005? What is there to look forward to?

Why should the average fan bother going to games in 2005? What is there to look forward to?

Seeing the development of Rios, Wells, Quiroz (when he gets called up), etc...

Watching quality players like Doc, Lilly, Hudson, etc..

Also seeing teams like the Yanks, Red Sox, etc...

Carlos Delgado is scheduled to be interviewed on The Fan 590 tomorrow (Wednesday) at 7:10 am

Theres a rumour floating around that a Rios for Nick Johnson deal might be in the works. I personally think Rios is too much too give up for Johnson. Chacin and Big Vito for Johnson would be fair.

Well, some wins would be nice.

At the expense of the future of the club?

I think the only person floating that rumour is Gammons, and I don't think it's legit. That just does not seem like a move JP would make.

At the expense of the future of the club?

At what expense? Carlos is not blocking anybody. There is no remotely promising first baseman. There is no remotely powerful DH bat. A long-term millstone of a contract might inhibit payroll flexibility. But unless the Jays hope to spend money in acquiring meaningful building blocks and a first baseman -- which, I suppose and hope, they do -- then offering arbitration on a one-year deal doesn't come at any cost to the "future." Only to the present payroll.

I have faith that J.P. will be creative once this offseason gets going. But he has work to do to prevent this from being a sizeable backward step for the organization. It can be done, but not easily.

Nomar $8M for one year!!! If this is the market, the Jays surely should be able to do something done with Carlos...I hope there's still hope, I hope, I hope

Nomar's deal is 1 yr plus incentives. As well, Rotoworld says:

Cubs re-signed shortstop Nomar Garciaparra to a one-year, $8 million contract.
Now they can turn their full attention toward signing Todd Walker. The 31-year-old Garciaparra remains a premier offensive shortstop, but the questions about his durability and his defense led him to pursue a one-year deal this winter. He'll try to rebuild his value in 2005

I am not usre this deal really lowers Delgado's value. In fact, it means that Carlos might reasonably ask for at least $10 million/yr. Too rich for the Jays I would think. Face it fellas, he's gone. The only issue is whether the Jays get compensation.

I think the only person floating that rumour is Gammons, and I don't think it's legit. That just does not seem like a move JP would make.

I don't know the legitimacy of the offer, and I don't know what I make of it if it is true, but that seems very much like something JP would do.

Earlier "Ron" answered: Why should the average fan bother going to games in 2005? What is there to look forward to?

My answer: In 04 TO introduced AS ROOKIES; Bush, Chacin, Chulk, Frasor, League, Cash, Quiroz, Adams, Crozier, Gross and Rios. Of these at least 8 will play a serious role in 05 and for years to come.

In 05, at some time throughout the season the Jays will introduce (baring injuries): Rosario, Arnold, Vermilyea, Perkins, Houston, Hill, Hattig, Griffin, and possibly Thorpe. Of these at least 5 should be major additions for the next 6 years or so.

On 06, lots more...

So in 04 and 05 that will be at least 20 ROOKIES of whom at least 13 are major additions to the team. CAN ANY TEAM IN THE GAME MATCH THIS??? JP's plan IS WORKING!

We're always going to be against a rock and hard place, remember we play BOS and NY, both of those teams only have to play the other they don't have to play themsleves. SO, we have 20 harder games than they do every season.

The Jays are going to be young, exciting and full of promise. Personally, if I can't have a pennant every year at least give me youth and excitement.

Face it fellas, he's gone. The only issue is whether the Jays get compensation.

I don't think you need the second sentence there; listening to JP's interview from this morning confirmed to me that Delgado will not play for the Blue Jays next year. He won't be offered arbitration, and we'll have to get used to him playing against Toronto anywhere from 6 to 19 times next year.

FWIW, York was on Sportsnet indicating that Godfrey wants to offer arbitration but JP is reluctant. Apparently, they plan on meeting tonight and a final decision is not expected until the very last minute.

Too bad for Toronto, then. I have no sympathy for fair-weather fans. Baseball is a great game always worth watching at the major league level, imo.

Toronto is a result based town which looks at wins.

This is a tired argument. Name a city anywhere in the world that isn't a "results-based" town. Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cub fans do not count here because they have spent decades wallowing in their own self-made legendary loyalty to losers.

Dallas is a results-based town where football is to Texas as hockey is to Ontario, and everyone -- everyone! -- here wants to see Drew Henson at QB. But The Magnificently Large Tuna knows that at 5-7, even if Henson rocks (which he won't, yet) if he finishes the season at 5-11 rather than, say, 7-9 with the playoffs a possibility right until the last game, he will have everyone -- everyone! -- bitching.

This is true in any town, in any sport. It's not a reasonable argument here.

FWIW, York was on Sportsnet indicating that Godfrey wants to offer arbitration but JP is reluctant. Apparently, they plan on meeting tonight and a final decision is not expected until the very last minute.

I saw that, too. York usually makes Gammons seem like the Oracle at Delphi, and when things are close to the wire like they are now, there'll always be a lot of rumours, suggestions and general noise surrounding this kind of momentous event. I'm skeptical of media reports generally, but we'll know soon enough which way the wind is blowing.

The thing of it is, there's a simple solution to this whole imbroglio. JP meets with Paul Godfrey, Ted Rogers and any other interested parties and says, approximately, this:

"Look. You want to bring Delgado back? Fine. This is how we'll do it. I've offered him 3 years at $7M per season [or whatever], so I have $7M budgeted for first base next year. If he accepts arbitration, and/or we reach a long-term deal with him, I'll pay the first $7M of his salary out of my $53M budget. You'll cover every penny over that, above and in addition to the $53M, for every year he's with us.

"You want him back? Put your money where your mouth is. Because if you saddle me with Delgado at $10M, $12M, $14M or whatever, without increasing the overall payroll by that increased amount, you're going to send me back out there in 2005 with essentially the same team that lost 94 games last year, most of them on merit. Your call."

Satisfying as this sounds, it's unlikely (but not impossible) that this has been discussed at the upper echelons, and probably not in these precise terms. And even if this was presented to the top dogs, I'm 99% sure the answer would be an unprintable negative. But the fact remains: Delgado is just too expensive a property for a club with a $53M payroll; offering arbitration would most likely trigger an automatic $15M commitment to the guy. If there's really a corporate desire to have him back, there has got to be an equivalent corporate willingness to finance that desire. End of story.

http://www.baseballagent.com.au/Players%20News%20Pages/shane_benson_page.htm
Blue Jays sing Aussie COMN

He's got a good beat and I can dance to it. ;)

Sorry, it just had to be done, Mikey. Thanks for the heads up!

Oops, I mean sign Aussie! Good to see the Jays outbid some other teams for a good prospect.

Too bad for Toronto, then. I have no sympathy for fair-weather fans. Baseball is a great game always worth watching at the major league level, imo.

That comment bothers me. If that's the attitude Jays management takes, there frankly won't be baseball in Toronto for that much longer. I've been avidly following the Jays for seven years now; I'm also getting tired of seeing mediocre and/or losing teams. I guess that makes me a fairweather fan.

What would spending big money right now, with the young talent not yet ready, get the Jays?

I read Da Box very often but have not posted in a long time. Most of you guys have a very deep and genuine understanding of the game and I enjoy reading the analysis. I don't mean to generalize, but a lot of you offer way too many excuses to the Ricciardi regime. Truth be told, the Free Agents JP has brought here have been a bust for the most part, and many trades and aquisitions have also gone awry (re: trading Quantrill and Izturis, acquiring Hinske and ultimately signing him long term etc.). Many of you guys also justify Ricciardi's miscues with his small budget. Even with this is mind, I think Ricciardi's time at the GM helm has been mediocre at best. To hear the attitudes of many posters in regards to spending money on FA simply boggles my mind. I realize that this won't happen given the Rogers budget, but many of you almost embrace the idea of a 50M budget. To me it suggests that many of you have been brainwashed by Ricciardi propoganda and the Oakland/Minnesota model.

If the Jays don't keep Delgado and/or replace him with someone like Corey Koskie, this team will have the worst offense in the American league.

I didn't realize that Koskie was such an offensive player, he could replace Delgado by himself. Rob's post is indicative of the exact mindset that gets small market teams into trouble. "I can't afford the Cadillac, so I'll throw a bunch of money at the Ford. Who cares if it's more than the Ford is worth, I really like that truck."

If there isn't a good investment out there, I hope JP holds on to his budget dollars, and uses them some other way. Maybe he can get in on a deal where he throws in a pile of cash and some marginal player for prospects?

Excellent post Jordan. I've gotta figure that if Delgado gets offered arbitration, and we end up with Delgado at 15 million and a $53MM budget, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see JP end up walking at some point. Clearly, he would have been overruled by Godfrey were such a scenario to play out.

It boggles my mind that Paul Godfrey is involved in this, to be honest. He's like Steinbrenner, except he's spending someone elses money.

York now has an article on sportsnet.ca saying that the Jays will not offer Carlos arbitration, and have made a lst ditch 2 or 3 year offer worth $7 million per year.

No question, JP is nearing the end of the string if things don't turn around in either 05 or 06. And by turn around I mean a serious run at the playoffs, not climbing back to 500 and fighting for 3rd.

I've been a big JP supporter but signing mediocre free agents and eating up the budget with 1 million dollar relievers is a quick way to make me wonder. I want to see how his drafts turn out before saying 'get rid of him'.

Heck, I still felt Ash had something to offer before he left as he always seemed to be getting overuled by the brass on what to do (Clemens, which lead to Wells, which also lead to overpaying Homer Bush, and various other items in an effort to be contenders when there wasn't a solid base), yet did some good things with his first draft pick each year (Halladay, Koch, Wells, Felipe Lopez [useful in a trade], Rios, Negron [nothing yet], Gross). Lopez being the worst I'd say looking at who went after (C.C. Sabathia, Sean Burroughs). Lance Berkman went shortly after Wells, Eric Milton after Koch but in both cases the Jays got a fairly good player (Koch was a fine closer here).

Hmm. Wonder how JP will be viewed in 5 years. Both draft and trade/free agent wise. Right now I don't trust him to find the $3-5 million players who will be more than that in value.

Rob's post is indicative of the exact mindset that gets small market teams into trouble.

Robbie's post, that is. I don't think J.P. has any propoganda -- or propaganda for that matter -- and he sure doesn't follow the Minnesota model. I mean, our second baseman can hit. ;)

I didn't realize that Koskie was such an offensive player, he could replace Delgado by himself. Rob's post is indicative of the exact mindset that gets small market teams into trouble. "I can't afford the Cadillac, so I'll throw a bunch of money at the Ford. Who cares if it's more than the Ford is worth, I really like that truck."

I'm not sure I understand what you're trying to suggest. What I was trying to say in my last sentence is that the Jays will likely replace Delgado with Corey Koskie or a like player. My point was that I disagree with doing this, especially if it means overpaying (2 years / 10 million as is being suggested is way too much). In your words, "I wouldn't overpay for the Ford just because I can't afford the Cadillac." In fact, I'd rather have 1 "Cadillac" then 4 "Fords". What I mean by this is that I'd rather have Delgado and prospects / cheap FA's then Hinske + Batista + Lightenberg + Catalanatto.

Sorry Robbie, for some reason I interpreted your sentence as meaning that you wanted to see a Koskie-esque replacement or you thought the offence would be terrible.

If anybody's interested tsn is doing a "Greatest BlueJay Ever" segment later on in the show

I don't mean to generalize, but a lot of you offer way too many excuses to the Ricciardi regime.

The funny thing is, no one was more critical of the Cat signing than Jordan, and no one was more critical of JP's interest in Matt Clement than me. Both of us are BBox staffers. In fact people argued angrily that I was out of my mind when I suggested JP's idea was a bad one.

If we're JP apologists, perhaps it's because we're taking the path of least resistance. :)

I think also a lot of us (and I throw myself wholeheartedly in this camp) are more apologetic than most is because we closely follow the minor league Jays' teams and are watching them beat the piss out of their competition; save for Syracuse, who is probably the last of the Gord Ash era/fill-in-AAA-talent minor league teams.

Sure it was fun to mark out for Roger Clemens when I was a kid, but the rest of the team, quite frankly, stank; I didn't know it at the time, but their minor teams stank too, and we rarely if ever saw players come up, usually about one a year. In the next few years there is going to be incredible pressure to even make the 25-man roster, and we're already seeing the talent that's not making the 40-man this year. I'm not worried if the Jays are winning a lot now, because unlike in 1995, I know that they have a ton of incredible talent coming up (and am already starting to see it), and it probably makes me a whole lot more forgiving of JP than the Blue Jays marks that frequent the mlb.com team site.

one hour and ten minutes to go...C'mon guys, let's get a deal done!!

John: I wouldn't say Lopez was the worst of the last decade; that distinction would go to Joey 'Whoa!' Lawrence, drafted 16th overall by the Jays in 1996; looked bonafide until AA and has been awful ever since.

[i]No question, JP is nearing the end of the string if things don't turn around in either 05 or 06. And by turn around I mean a serious run at the playoffs, not climbing back to 500 and fighting for 3rd.[/i]

I agree 100% with you John but for arguments sake .......

You don't seriously expect the Jays to contend for the playoffs next season do you? JP has already said he doesn't have the budget to go after the top flight FA's and will go bargain hunting. How do you expect him to compete with the Red Sox or Yanks when they payrolls aren't even close?

Don't forget towards late last season on Wednesday with JP, JP said he never talked about a 5 year plan and said the Jays might not compete until 2007.

Considering JP is building from the ground up, you want to give him time to draft the guys he wants and let them develop for a couple of seasons in the majors (assuming they make it to the majors).

The tension mounts...

Half an hour till Carlos Delgado is no long a Blue Jay

Anyone have any scoops, new news...anything to report??

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1940868
Nothing to report on Delgado but the O's signed BJ Surhoff, M's signed Wilson, Phillies signed Cormier (5.75mil for 2 years), and Craig Monroe got busted for "allegedly" stealing a $30 belt. I guess his contract of $335,000 wasn't enough to cover the purchase of the belt

Scott Williamson was not offered arbitration by the Red Sox, assuming he will be healthy next season, I wonder if JP has any interest.

The Yankees signed Tony Womack???
What, one Miguel Cairo wasn't enough?

Rotoworld also indicates the Yanks are close to a three-year deal with Jaret Wright (Washington Post) and have inked Tony F. Womack to a two-year deal (Fox Sports). If so, then these are definitely not your father's Yankees.

I'll create a new thread after midnight where people can track all the assorted tenders and non-tenders.

Delgado will be on CityPulse (or at least interviewed) tomorrow concerning the whole thing. He's here in T.O. to do some charity work.

Let me be the first to say it. If Baltimore gets any pitching whatsoever, the Yanks will fall to third in the AL East next year.

Have the television on CTV - just said Delgado will not be offered arbitration. I will wait until i see something on paper...

Anyone else clicking refresh every 30 seconds hoping to see some good news?

Anyone else clicking refresh every 30 seconds hoping to see some good news?

15 seconds

Every time I hit refresh I'm worried I'll see that they've offered him arbitration ;)

5 more minutes...please something!

Yeah I'm seeing nothing at all online...shouldn't bluejays.com at least be mentioning this?

Carlos Delgado has 3 minutes left in his legendous career as a Toronto Blue Jay

2 minutes..................

He was so good we invented new words for him, I suppose?

legendous?

:(

Looks like the end, unless any news is coming fomr anywhere else?

Only for Carlos

legendous- to be Carlos Delgado

Thanks for the memories

And in the end, the love you make is equal to the love you take...so long Carlos.

To whatever city Carlos Delgado will sign with,

You are not only getting a quality baseball player, but a quality person, who demonstrated everything that good baseball is all about.

Is it official yet?

Sportsnet is reporting that Delgado did NOT sign a deal before 12:00.

His agent also ripped the Jays and J.P.:
"As far as I'm concerned, the Blue Jays butchered this up. They've been butchering it up with Carlos for a long, long time. I don't think (general manager) J.P. Ricciardi has ever wanted Carlos around, from the day he stepped off the plane to take over in Toronto."

Sloane would not elaborate, other than to say he and Delgado were livid in the summer when Sportsnet divulged that the Jays were going to ask Delgado to waive his no-trade clause.

"That wasn't right, and it was disgraceful that someone in the organization, whether it was J.P. or not, leaked that information to you," Sloane said.

oh yeah...check out sportsnet.ca

Yikes Delgado is leaving the Jays on a real sour note. Needless to say, Sloane isn't a fan of JP and the way the Jays mistreated his client.

This is probably the worst way to officially end Delgado's tenure with T.O. It's very unfortunate since this could have been prevented, and a more favourable outcome for Jays fans could've been accomplished, if this is true.

They didn't mistreat him. Sloane is a jackass.

And if it's so terrible, why did he wait until now to say so? Because they wanted the Jays to offer arb. so they'd have a fallback.

loane isn't a fan of JP and the way the Jays mistreated his client.

How did they mistreat him?

Yeah, I can see Sloane's point. JP and the Jays really mistreated Delgado! :) Wish someone would mistreat me and pay me $68M! :)

I will be interested to hear what Delgado says about the negotiations/situation, not from the agent.

That comment bothers me. If that's the attitude Jays management takes, there frankly won't be baseball in Toronto for that much longer. I've been avidly following the Jays for seven years now; I'm also getting tired of seeing mediocre and/or losing teams. I guess that makes me a fairweather fan.

I'm not Jays management, and I agree completely that that attitude is not one the front office should hold in any way. I'm simply saying that baseball is a great game and Toronto sports fans are extremely lucky to have a team, whether they understand that or not.

Interesting. Radke resigned with the Twins for approx. $18M/2 years.

What a stupid poll out of sportsnet.ca

What Toronto player would you most want to see leave

1. Carlos Delgado
2. Vince Carter
3. Both
4. Neither"

JP's quote is a gem too. "I'm not talking about this right now, not even after midnight." If I was him I'd just leave town for a while. Or sign Mats Sundin.

Needless to say, Sloane isn't a fan of JP and the way the Jays mistreated his client.

Well, the way he perceives they mistreated him anyways.

Or sign Mats Sundin.

Forget that, he needs Doug Gilmour and Wendel Clark.

It's a shame to hear how this has played out. I hope Delgado signs anywhere but Baltimore---I'd hate to see him 19 times a year in another uniform.

Jordan, I'd like to see that thread you mentioned earlier right about now (not to pressure you or anything, just a gentle reminder if you're still up for it). I can't seem to find much more than snippets of information off of different sites, there don't seem to be any comprehensive lists floating around in cyberspace.

http://rotoworld.com/content/playernews.asp?sport=MLB
Simon if you want breaking news COMN, the last 2 times I refreshed new MLB signings were updated.

Yea, if he signed in the NL, that would be best. Maybe LA or Florida, so we won't see him a whole lot. I couldn't stomach "Delgado" lettering in an Orange. But either way, I just want what's best for Carlos, he certainly deserves the best.

Well with Twins GM Terry Ryan stepping up and getting Radke signed for $18M over 2 years...probably is less likely he offers arb to Koskie...havent seen anything on him yet (or Clement with the Cubs).

I see the O's declined arbit. for Buddy Groom. Any interest from the Jays there?

matt morris also signed a one year deal with the cards...
I definitly thought his st. louis career was done but i guess they're willing to give him one more shot.

I believe the worst thing would be seeing Delgado 19 times in a Yankee uniform...That would be no with arbitration right...

With the contracts that have been given to both benson and now radke I wonder if its still reasonable to think that JP will have the ability to sign a guy like clement to a reasonable deal. If the only way we get a guy like clement is at a price like that I'd very quickly pass.

The new thread is up, with a few reports to get y'all started....

One thing to keep in mind is that Sloane and Ricciardi have reportedly had a difficult relationship before now, so Sloane's parting shot perhaps isn't surprising. Regardless of whether you think the Jays made the right move, though, I don't think it was a very classy thing for Sloane to say just minutes after midnight, tainting Delgado's departure.

Well, if he's gone, that's really, really too bad ... but at this moment, difficult as it is, I think it was the right move. Arbitration could've cost this team $14.8M for a lame-duck first baseman next year; I just don't think it was worth it. Doesn't make it any easier to see Carlos go, though. More on this tomorrow.

I believe a lot of the ill will from Sloane and Delgado is over the fact somebody (could have been JP) leaked out that Delgado didn't waive his no trade clause making him look like a bad guy. Of course Jay fan knows Delgado was going to bolt and at least wanted something in return. And because of this people blasted Delgado saying he doesn't care about winning.

Twins offered arbitration to Koskie. Oh, goody.

Scott Williamson was not offered arbitration by the Red Sox, assuming he will be healthy next season...

I was thinking the same thing until Rotoworld let me know that he had TJ surgery in early October. Injured was apparently an understatement:

"I couldn't believe what I saw," said Dr. Tim Kremchek. "It looked like a grenade had gone off in there."

I'm going to preface my comments with the fact that I'm a bit upset that Carlos is history.

That said, I'm really starting to get a bad feeling about JP, especially with his personnel handling skills.

It seems that everyone who leaves this team harbours ill will towards the front office. Notorious 'good guys' like Buck, Tosca and now Carlos all seem to leave on a sour note. I tend to agree with Sloane that the Jays really butchered the Delgado situation, right from the trade deadline. While I always remained hopeful that a deal would get done (and at a reasonable price), my gut told me that Ricciardi truly had no desire for Carlos to remain a Jay.

I could say more but I really don't feel like it. I've always considered myself a fan of JPs but over the past twelve months, I've started to lose faith. I hope I'm wrong.

I tend to agree with Sloane that the Jays really butchered the Delgado situation, right from the trade deadline.

I dont understand. For people who hold this stance, what in your opinion should he have done differently?

Personally, I think he was too open about the whole situation. While I appreciate JP's frankness the majority of the time, it can certainly be a double-edged sword.

I have no idea who leaked the no-trade clause story and I am certainly not accusing JP of doing so. However, once it was leaked, I feel he talked too much about it. I can recall various instances leading up to the trade deadline on 'Wednesdays with JP' where he openly talked about how it would help the team to be able to trade him but he has to respect Delgado's rights. I never liked that. I'd have much rather heard him say something along the lines of "Carlos has a no-trade claus and thus, he's not going anywhere."

I just get the feeling that JP doesn't have the best people skills. Of course, I could be way off but this team has had a history of being a wonderful organization to deal with. That (along with winning) helped Gillick and Beeston lure so many talented players here. Players were falling over themselves in praising the organization. Now it seems that everyone leaves on a sour note.

While I always remained hopeful that a deal would get done (and at a reasonable price), my gut told me that Ricciardi truly had no desire for Carlos to remain a Jay.

Exactly how is this a Ricciardi's fault? If Delgado want $11-12 year (which I think he gets), and you agree that the Jays can't afford this, what should Ricciardi do?

BTW, I'm not one of the JP apologists around here, but your line of thinking makes no sense.

But unfortunately this is Toronto, and despite the great city that it is, the casual fan won't pay to see Rios, Quiroz, etc develop. Toronto is a result based town which looks at wins

The Leafs don't see it that way: they're bringing their whole junior team out here to play at the Ricoh because they believe the fans in Toronto will want to see the youngsters on their way up.

If the Jays spin it right, a marketing campaign about The Future could be successful, IMO. Especially with the general dissatisfaction with "overpaid" and "whiny" superstars, a good showing by a bunch of rookies could make some magic.

I think a lot of what is attacked as "J.P. apologism" is just realism. Some of us don't rail against the injustice of a small budget not because we like having our home team shackled in that way, but because we know that what we say will have no effect on it. Instead, we look at what can be done within its constraints. And what can be done is what is being done, for the most part: stock the hell out of the farm system, develop, develop, develop, then reap the rewards. The free agent misadventures in the meantime is merely a distraction while we wait for the big show that's coming.

Do I know that this plan will work out? No. Do I hope that it will? Yes. Do I give up on this plan because things unrelated to it are not working out? Hell no.

Now, if our farm system ends up being a total horror show in a couple of years and the Jays continue to flounder around at the bottom of the AL East with no help on the horizon, ask me about all this again and you'll probably hear a different answer.

Carlos is upset that the Jays request to have him waive his no trade was made public? What a joke! What a big secret! Did ANYBODY not expect JP to ask Delgado to waive his no trade at the deadline?

There's now a special "Delgado Edition" Jays Roundup up and running.

NDG:

You'll see I was careful not to criticize Ricciardi for not getting a deal done. I was hopeful but my head told me it might be best for him to leave.

My criticisms, and I think I made them fairly obvious, were in Ricciarid's handling of the situation and in the grand scheme of things, his handling of departing personnel.

The Leafs don't see it that way: they're bringing their whole junior team out here to play at the Ricoh because they believe the fans in Toronto will want to see the youngsters on their way up.

If the Jays spin it right, a marketing campaign about The Future could be successful, IMO. Especially with the general dissatisfaction with "overpaid" and "whiny" superstars, a good showing by a bunch of rookies could make some magic.

I just can't see that strategy being successful, even for the Leafs. When the Baby Leafs played at the ACC last week, they only had about 10 000 fans there, and from what I've read, half of them got in for free. If the Leafs can't market their young stars to the city of Toronto, even in a year when the big club isn't playing, I don't see how the Jays can pull it off.