Clemens and Martinez are the MAN. Pavano...well I can't forget the old Pavano, I wouldn't spend the farm on him. With Wells' back you never know.

Of the rest, Lieber has the most upside to me. Comming back from injury he started to put it together last year.

Clement and Radke look like the next tier to me. I give Clement a three year 21 million contract.

If Roasrio, McGowan, Chacin, Banks, Purcey and Jackson make him no longer needed he's signed at a salary we can trade/dump. Of course if Delgado signs the money is gone. The life of a GM.

Clement is likely the best starting pitcher that is available and is within the Blue Jays means. I think it will take 3 years, 21 mil to sign him and I wiould do it. Bagging Clement would give the team considerable depth at this position and would be both injury protection as well as increasing the opportunity to trade from strength later in the season should the optimal opportunity arise.

Clement and Lieber are the only pitchers on that list that I can see being realistic options for the Jays. The others are too old and/or too expensive, legitimately (Pavano) or not (Milton).

With the Blue Jay budget I think my ceiling for Clement would be around 3 years $20M. I don't think that'll get it done, and I think this team could get better value in upgrading the hitting and the bullpen.

But the market for starting pitching hasn't really been set yet, so youneverknow. Cory Lidle's 2004 VORP was 11.9, earning him 2 years $6.3 from the Phillies. If that's the scale, here's what you get:

Roger Clemens, $18 million per
Matt Clement, $11
Al Leiter, $14
Jon Lieber, $7
Pedro Martinez, $15
Eric Milton, $6
Russ Ortiz, $10
Carl Pavano, $19
Odalis Perez, $15
Brad Radke, $18
David Wells, $12
Woody Williams, $8

Ugly.

Just looking at the stats...

I don't know about Clement. Looks to me like he has a control problem. Last year, he walked 77 batters in 181 innings (as a comparison, Miguel Batista walked 96 in 199 innings...in the AL.) Clement also led the league in wild pitches in every year from 2000-2003, and was second last year. Plus, he's been in the top ten HBP for every year of his career.

In fairness, his K numbers are VERY good...but to me he looks like Victor Zambrano+

I already tear my hair out watching Batista and Lilly dish out a bunch of free passes every game...I don't know if I can add a third one.

I don't think I would give Clement 7mil.

Answering my own question:

Clemens, Leiter, Wells, and Williams are too old to consider and Pedro is too expensive.

So that leaves, in VORP order:

Carl Pavano, 62.4
Brad Radke, 60.1
Odalis Perez, 49.7
Matt Clement, 36.9
Russ Ortiz, 33.1
Jon Lieber, 27.3
Eric Milton, 18.7

I'd have Pavano and Radke at the top, but after that I think I'd place Clement next. He's 30, seems durable, strikes out a lot of batters, and is a groundball pitcher.

I'd be willing to offer either 3 years for $20 million with a team option for $7 million, or 4 for $24 million.

Who cares if he walks guys, he's a strikeout machine...Also, in re-uniting w/ his old pitching coach may improve his control..

Sometimes you guys gotta stop it with the stats! Sweet Jesus

That being said, I think the Jays would be better signing a good reliever at 3 mill per..And moving Batista back into the starting rotation..

I think we could use the money pegged for Clement on some bats.

Sometimes you guys gotta stop it with the stats!

Uh... how do you know he's a strikeout machine? How do you know his control could stand to improve?

Dunny: "Who cares if he walks guys..."

Well, I do, for one. :)

Not saying that Clement is a bad player or anything, but I'm just giving it a different perspective.

I agree with your other post.

I have no clue what he would do in Toronto...

I just think stats are all fine and nice, but there is more to baseball than stats. I've played the game for a good while, and that's how I feel.

Sometimes you guys gotta stop it with the stats! Sweet Jesus

You're absolutely right, and if we ignore stats and go on "tools," then your suggestion of Jesus would be a great addition to the bullpen.

As for the Cheer Club, the sign possibilities abound. You know what they say about deity closers, right? "JESUS SAVES."

Basically, if the fact that he walks more guys than the average pitcher stops you from getting Clement you're insane :)

IMO Clement would immediately become our #2

He's a gamer, with big game experience

Also, I don't wanna see Towers go out and through 200 innings of BP this summer.

lol..Jesus would be a nice addition..

I just think stats are all fine and nice, but there is more to baseball than stats

And I'm just saying that when you say things like "stikeout machine", you're just referring to different stats. Strikeouts and innings pitched are stats just as much as VORP is. Other than speculating about how it might be good for Clement to be reunited with Arnsberg, your assessment is also based in stats.

IMO Clement would immediately become our #2

So I guess you don't want to hear how the stats say that Lilly has out-pitched Clement each of the last two years? ; )

Yes, while you have caught me also indulging in stats, I believe a huge # under the K column is important..

I pretty much only go by 2 stats..ERA and OBPS

Other than that, I think there are a million intagibles in this game that cannot be ignored.

I know I'm a hypocrite, but it's fun

I don't know, Jonny. Is Lilly a gamer? :)

Seriously, if Lilly is worth 1.9M, then I don't think Clement is worth 7M. Then again, if Lidle is worth 3M...

Also, I wouldn't mind adding Colome to the 'pen.

Lilly is a fine pitcher, probably my fav player in the world right now. I just think Clement has better stuff.

Any way you look at it, it's a good problem to have..that is trying to decide between Lilly and Clement on whom is your #2

And now you mock my "gamer" comment?

Let me ask you..How much ball have you played in your life?

I think all the actual players know that there is way more to this game than stats. And I'm not flaming you, I'm just asking you a question.

I think that Lilly would command around 7 mill a season if he were a free agent right now...

Lidle getting that much is rediculous, but you know he's guarenteed one strek a year where he'll win 5 or 6 in a row. Other than that he's brutal.

A word of caution concerning Clement, whom I quite like and would be happy to see in a Jays uniform: here are his home/road ERAs the last three years:

2004: 3.19 home, 4.50 road
2003: 3.10 home, 5.46 road
2002: 4.57 home, 2.55 road

The 2002 number at least reassures me that he's not pulling a Chan Ho Park on us, posting respectable ERAs by playing half his games in a positive pitching environment. But it's something to keep in mind, especially with Skydome playing as a pretty strong hitter's park in 2004. The key to signing him, of course, is Brad Arnsberg.

I would give Clement 3 years (maximum)at $21 million, if that's the going price (it'll probably be more), but here's what I would like to do in an ideal world: I'd front-load it. I'd give him, say, $10M in 2005 and $5.5M in '06 and '07. The Jays' top pitching prospects should be ready for prime time by then, and Clement can be dealt more easily with a relatively cheap contact. The two drawbacks to this plan: the Jays probably couldn't make the budget dollars work this year, and Clement likely wouldn't sign a deal that was custom-designed to make him trade bait in Year Two. It'd be neat to see some team try it, though.

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3622
> Basically, if the fact that he walks more guys than the average pitcher stops you from getting Clement you're insane :)

You might reasonably offer him less money because of it, however, and if his budget and your budget don't agree....

Baseball prospectus had a brief snippet about Matt Clement in their Under the Knife section (COMN). They seem a little concern about his workload under Dusty Bakers "care".

Oh come on, I was kidding around with you.

I haven't been making very many friends around here lately, heh.

I'm not going to engage in a pissing contest with you, sorry.

A front loaded deal would be awesome

No prob man, not what I was after either

If Clement doesn't have the ability to pitch 200 innings than he's pretty useless to the Jays

Chill down, you guys don't need to rip his opinion so much. All he said was that some of the more obscure stats that you use (and yes, to most baseball fans, vorp is obscure) don't mean much to him --- a perfectly valid comment.

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3625
Here's another analysis article from BP which has a small piece about Carl Pavano. (COMN). Basically they think he's overrated. Not that he'd be in the Blue Jays price range anyway.

Rob, he was the one that was ripping my opinion.

Whatever, just leave it.

I don't understand why K's should be such a huge factor, but why BB's should be basically ignored. I wouldn't mind adding Clement to the team, but I think the limited money JP has can be better spent.

In one of Dunny's earlier posts on this thread he suggests spending 3 million on a reliever, putting Batista back on the starting line and spending the rest on bats.

With RH and Lily, Bush and Chacin and Batista and possibily League all available for starters positions...is there a reliever/closer out there somewhere who could SERIOUSLY make a difference for 3 or so million? BECAUSE lets face it if Delgado goes we'll need every penny we can raise to get at least semi-reasonable bats.

FYI, Ryan - That wasn't me, the usual Rob, posting above there. (For one thing, I would say VORP instead of vorp.) Whoever that was: either add an initial to your name or choose another handle.

Ryan.. I wasn't ripping your pov..I just think that fact that Clement walks guy is irrelevant when you strike out as many guys as he does. Just my opinion. I could be wrong who knows!

And really, what good is a rotation w/ Clement when you still run a bloop and blast offense, with a team that can't get on base or hit home runs.

I think that is the problem here.

I think the walks shouldn't be as big an issue when you consider that his BAA was 229 and that his whip was 1.28.

It's one thing if a guy gives up lots of hits AND walks, but the problem lessens when you consider that his stuff is so nasty that sometimes he can't even control it.

I watched a game Clement pitched against the Brewers this year and he was unhittable. Of course, as usual, the pen blew it for him but still, he was nasty. That really turned me on to the idea of seeing him in a Jays uni next season.

There's been a great deal of mention of adding bats. The problem I see with that is, where are they going to play? As I see it, 2B, SS, 3B, CF, and RF are going to be held by the incumbent. That leaves openings at 1B, LF, C and DH. The LF opening will presumably be filled by a Cat/Sparky platoon. I don't see the bats on the market that are going to make significant noise at any of C, 1B or DH. I like the idea of signing Clement to a front-loaded deal as mentioned above, to give the team an asset to turn into a bat for 2K6 as the pitchers in the minors develop.

We don't need to worry. JP will likely use his scouts(ala his Microsoft Excel program) to scope out Clement...

I think that clement is not any more valuable than escobar ... 3 years/ 18 million should be the limit.

I also don't think that the jays should sign him, unless they somehow manage to trade batista. Next year, he will earn close to $ 5 million, to be the closer, and this isn't why he was brought here. In addition, the jays already have david bush in the lineup, and rosario, league, and perhaps banks would be in syracuse at the start of the season. These guys shouldn't be blocked.

Ideally, the jays trade batista and hinske, and use the money on koskie and a proven closer. But I don't think this scenerio is very likely, unless jp is willing to take on salary - for example konerko, or to include prospects in such trades.

What do you think would be a realistic trade for konerko ?

I like the idea of signing Clement to a front-loaded deal as mentioned above, to give the team an asset to turn into a bat for 2K6 as the pitchers in the minors develop.

Whoever came up with this idea isn't thinking. You can just pay part of his salary when you trade him, so it doesn't make any sense to front load the deal. Might as well let the money earn interest.

It's a way of sliding money around within your three year budget though. I honestly don't see a ton of guys out there that make a great deal of sense for the Jays to sign. If Clement will agree to something reasonable, and front loaded, you can cheat a little on the budget by paying him more this year, leaving the team with more money to work with in the future, when there might be guys available who can be difference makers, in addition to making Clement a tempting trade piece.

3 years? Honestly with Clement's age I would personally be hoping to keep the guy around for about 4-5 years.

I like Clement a lot and a starting 3 of Halladay, Lilly, Clement would be absolutely perfect.

I think it's going to take 3 years, $24 million to sign Clement, unless he's willing to forego a couple mil to join a smaller-budget team. Do I think he's worth it? Tough call. Looking at his 2004 stats in the context of his career numbers reminds me of Batista last off-season. Another so-called underrated starter coming off a good year, but who has fairly mediocre career stats.

A front-loaded contract is a brilliant idea. JP would have terrific financial flexibility in 2005 and 06 when he most needs it.

Er, 2006 and 07, is what I meant.

http://www.mathesond.mindsay.com
Signing Clement could also give the Jays flexibility in terms of trading from their stock of up-and-coming pitchers (Bush, League, Rosario, et. al) for an up-and coming hitter (Ryan Howard, Adrian Ferrnandez, etc.). I mean, it's nice to say that the Jays have a strong corps of arms coming up through the system, but I doubt that all of Bush, League, Rosario, McGowan, Chacin, etc. will be 1-3 starters or bullpen aces. Getting some young hitters, or even more experienced ones (a la Austin Kearns) to go along with Doc/Lilly/Clement would give the team better overall balance, and they wouldn't have to bankrupt the system of all the promising arms, either.

I think spending that much on Clement only makes sense if we have a deal for Lilly on the way. Otherwise, we're locking ourselves into 3 (at least) years and a significant portion of the budget spent on an area that looks like it will be ably filled by prospects in a few years.

Of course it's a crapshoot whether all those promising pitchers actually make the leap to being productive major league starters, but wouldn't we be better off spending that kind of money on a hitter, when we A) know our hitting will be weaker than the pitching this year with the loss of Carlos, and B) know that we have far more potential impact pitchers than impact hitters coming up through the system?

I don't know... Clement seems like a bizarre choice to me. We'd be far better off working on someone like Koskie or Glaus.

This is how I'd rank the pitchers talent wise along with what I think they'll get on the market.

Pedro Martinez $12-$13M
Roger Clemens $10-$11M if he plays
Brad Radke $9-$10M
Kevin Millwood $7-$9M
Carl Pavano $8-$9M
Matt Morris $6-$8M **
Jon Lieber $6-$8M
Odalis Perez $6-$8M
Matt Clement $5-$7M
Woody Williams $5-$6M
Russ Ortiz $4-$7M
Al Leiter $7-$8M
David Wells $4-$6M
Eric Milton $6-$8M

** I'm not really sure what Matt Morris' current health and talent level is like nor what kind of salary he would command. He was a #1/#2 quality pitcher a couple of years ago and around that time turned down a multiyear deal that would have paid him in the neighbourhood of $12M per year. My ranking of him talent wise might be a tad optimistic but if he regains his form he could slide ahead of Radke.

Clement also might suffer some performance degradation in the change of leagues. Along with his control issues I've conservatively placed him middle of the pack though he has the stuff to vault into Radke territory.

Otherwise, we're locking ourselves into 3 (at least) years and a significant portion of the budget spent on an area that looks like it will be ably filled by prospects in a few years.

Pitching prospects aren't the safest bet around.

I like mathesond's idea a lot. Sign the known quantity in Clement and trade the unknown prospects (since the Jays seem to have a lot of them) for a big bat. I've watched Clement for a few years now and I'm pretty high on him. I'd love to see him a Jay. The comment about Escobar was a good one-Clement can have his bad outing. But more often than not he's a darn good starter.

R Billie, I think Millwood is a little high on your list. I would also put Clement above Lieber and Perez. I'm also glad you qualified the Morris ranking-I'm not sure he'll ever get his form back.

Whats wrong with working on Delgado....it may not seem like the sexiest choice but i would rather spend a few more million and have one of the best bats in the league in my lineup everyday than spend the money on a pitcher who could possibly be replaced by our system in a few years.

I think if you bring the pretty much the same team back as you had last year , without the injuries we are a pretty darn good ball club.
Have Bush all year and Russ adams over woodward.....Halladay back to form ......

You will not see a front loaded contract. No player would go for it because it would screw up their arbitration number when their contract expires. A player must be offered at least 80% of their salary in their final year, so they don't want their last year to be low.

Personally, I wouldn't be interested in Clement at the kind of money that he is going to cost in 2006 and 2007. By that time, if this team is to win, it will be because the young pitching has developed, and Clement will just be in the way and taking up salary room that could best be used for other needs.

According to today's Toronto Star's transactions list, Rick Adair was signed by Texas as a minor league pitching co-ordinator. Rick Adair has been the Jays double A affiliate pitching coach, and has done a fine job. We wish him well.

I'd be interested in pitchers who you could sign for one year only. Maybe Woody Williams or David Wells.

I think it will be nice to see matt clement in a jays uniform and
i would hope jp can go out and sign billy koch to a deal as a closer or a set up man. i also think we should sign david wells and woody willams and paul quantrill.

I don't know why, but if we get clement I have a feeling that Lilly will end up going to a national league team that desperately needs a LHP at the trade deadline. The deal will likely net the jays a top end heavy hitting prospect. My prediction Lilly for Loney. I just have a feeling.

i would hope jp can go out and sign billy koch to a deal as a closer or a set up man. i also think we should sign david wells

PLEASE tell me you ment this sarcasticly...

Wait a second! David Wells? Are we thinking of the same David Wells? I'm talking about the big guy who blasted Toronto and Toronto fans on the way out of town. I really can't see that going over well. First off, I can't see him wanting to come back. Secondly, he would be the Blue Jays equivalent to Larry Murphy by being booed every pitch (unless thats the marketing angle of the Jays, attract big crowds who want to boo their own pitcher). It would take quite a bit for Toronto fans, myself included, to warm up to him. He would have to shave a maple leaf into his head, get an "I Love Toronto" tattoo Justin Miller style ("I love Billy Koch" will also suffice) and throw two perfect games.

He'd also have to promise he wouldn't show up at any Toronto public swimming pools.

he walks more guys than the average pitcher

Its not irrelevant. Its just part of his package. Clement is a RH strikeout pitcher, in the general tradition of Feller and Ryan. Lots of Ks, lots of walks, not too many hits.

Clement gives up far fewer hits than the average pitcher. The NL batted .215, .227, and .229 against him the last three years.

I think he's absolutely the best FA pitcher if you're looking beyond 2005. (Obviously, for 2005 I'd take Pedro or Rocket.) I like Clement way, way better than Pavano. I think Clement will still be striking out ML hitters five years from now, and beyond. I think Pavano's declining K rates could drive him out of the rotation in less than three years.

i also think we should sign david wells and woody willams and paul quantrill.

And Carl Pavano and Al Leiter and Kevin Millwood...

If anyone's interested, Ernie Whitt will be signing autographs at Square One December 1st.

I also recieved news from a friend of mine. the Jays called him on Friday to tell him that the Season Pass is back, however the price has doubled to $162. Still a good deal ($2 a game).

Benson signed for 3yrs/22.5 million with the Mets, and Glendon Rusch got 2yrs/4 million from the Cubs.

Miguel Batista is actually starting to look underpaid right about now.

For those who are unfamiliar with VORP, it stands for "Value Over Replacement Player". It is affected by playing time. A player who performs well for a full season will rate higher than a player who performs somewhat better for a half season.

Even if the Starpass is $2 / game, if it's back, I might wind up getting one. The past week, I was planning out my tickets for the 10 game Flex Pack, but if the Starpass is back, I'm interested.

Is there a site that actually explains how VORP is calculated? I like looking through sortable VORP charts, because it provides one number with which you can easily compare players, but I'd like to find out how it actually works.

I've had a hard time finding this out too. I've actually bought old BP annuals to try and figure it out. I believe that it represents the amount of runs a player creates, determined through some variation of the old Bill James formula, above a defined point. For some reason, I believe I've read that defined point is the amount of runs a player who was 70 points of OPS below the league average for his position would create. That level is assumed to be the level at which you can readily find a replacement through the expenditure of minimal resources. Thus, if you have a player, say his initials are E.H., you determine how many runs he's created, and then determine how many runs a replacement level player would create in the same amount of PA. If the difference is 0, you might as well burn the money.

Of course this could be wrong, but I believe that's at least the gist of it.

Put me in the "no" to Clement camp. Here's my prediction for how he'll perform next year if with the Jays:

6-14 record, 27 GS, 154 IP, 19 HR, 68 BB, 151 K, 5.04 ERA

In fact, the above is simply Clement's road record over the past two seasons.

I'd much rather have Delgado. How much more would you have to pay to keep Delgado?

Given the salary numbers being thrown around, it almost looks like moneywise Delgado = Clement + Catalanotto.

Would anyone in their right mind make this trade? Delgado is a future Hall-of-Famer. Clement is a 30 year old pitcher who struggles outside of his home park and has a career sub-.500 record. Cat is an injury prone outfielder who has only 2 seasons with more than 300AB. Unless there ends up being a huge salary differential, I don't see how you can take Clement + Cat over Delgado.

http://www.stathead.com/bbeng/woolner/vorpdescnew.htm
COMN for an explanation, at least in part, of how VORP is calculated.

Are you sure about that ERA? I'm looking at his three year numbers, and he's 12-19, 4.07 ERA. He would have had to have been pretty amazing on the road in 2002 to make that much of a difference. It's a weird set of stats though; he gives up way more homers at home, which makes sense, but more walks and fewer strikeouts on the road. His opponent's average is lower on the road too, which seems bizarre.

3 starts on turf over the past 3 years; .103 opponent's batting average...if only!

C'mon Moffatt.

151 strikeouts in 154 innings, and only 68 walks, is absolutely fantastic. If he had given up just four or five fewer homers in the last two years on the road, and had just a little luck with regard to hits on balls in play, his line would look superstarish (and that 5.04 would be cut in half, at least).

I agree Leigh those are pretty good numbers, I think hes just been unlucky with #s like that. This isn't Walker Batista we are talking about.

The problem that I have with signing Clement is that, with rare
exceptions, every pitcher gets worse when they move to Toronto. I'm not sure why this is; perhaps it's the turf, or the foreignness of playing in Canada, or the tendency of home runs to fly out of the park when the roof is closed.

And the Jays' starting rotation isn't that bad, assuming that Batista can bounce back to any semblance of last year's early season form, and that Doc is healthy. Halladay/Lilly/Batista/Bush isn't a bad front four.

Besides, the Jays need hitters, especially power hitters. If they can't re-sign Delgado, they've got to get somebody. If they have enough to try to land Clement, they should be able to land a bat for similar salary.

Of course, perhaps the Jays have determined that they can't get Delgado, and can't find a comparable bat to replace him, so now they're considering the pitching-and-defense route. Sometimes, you have to play the cards you're dealt, but I'm worried about a repeat of 1997.

That year, the Jays had a front three of Hentgen (reigning Cy winner), Guzman (recent ERA titlist), and Clemens (Clemens). They got good pitching, but lost a lot of low-scoring games, as their hitting was awful. If that team fell behind 3-0, it was time to turn to the Home Shopping Network, as there was no way they were going to be able to come back from that kind of deficit.

Benson signed for 3yrs/22.5 million with the Mets, and Glendon Rusch got 2yrs/4 million from the Cubs.

Good news/bad news?

It sounds like Clement is out of the Cubs plans.

Of course, the Mets just 'raised' the market rate for pitchers, if you believe in that kind of thing (which I really don't).

The Chicago Tribune is reporting that the Cubs are likely to offer Clement salary arbitration.

http://online.startribune.com/nuke/twins/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=172&SID=h59jet8m5ripiuc7e0tsmp0t24
Here's a good summary on the Twins negotiation status with Corey Koskie, apparently Riccardi's # 2 off-season signing prority.

A Comparison:

Clement Road 2003-2004
6-14 record, 27 GS, 154 IP, 19 HR, 68 BB, 151 K, 5.04 ERA

Batista Road 2002-2003
8-15 record, 39 G, 215.2 IP, 12 HR, 64 BB, 147 K, 3.80 ERA

151 strikeouts in 154 innings, and only 68 walks, is absolutely fantastic.

For the type of money he'll fetch, it isn't.

If he had given up just four or five fewer homers in the last two years on the road

And if Halladay didn't get hurt and if Phelps developed and if... Looking at best case scenarios is a dangerous thing. The fact is he gives up a bunch of homeruns and that's not going to play well at the Dome.

For the life of me I can't understand why you'd pay Clement big bucks but not Delgado. The Jays can't hit. At all. So they're going to get rid of a Hall-of-Fame slugger for a 30 year old pitcher who has never won more than 14 games in a season and sports a career 69-75 record.

For the life of me I can't understand why you'd pay Clement big bucks but not Delgado. The Jays can't hit. At all. So they're going to get rid of a Hall-of-Fame slugger for a 30 year old pitcher who has never won more than 14 games in a season and sports a career 69-75 record.

Not that I disagree with your point, but keep in mind, the Jays couldn't pitch after 2003, and were supposedly in good shape offensively. The Jays need to acquire the best talent per dollar, not necessarily focus on one specific need.

I'm iffy on Clement because the Jays refused to go 3 years on Escobar. I don't want to pay Clement 8 million a season over 3 years when the team's highest offer to a younger comparable (and more retainable) pitcher one year ago was 5 million per over 2 years. It's an insult. You're just throwing away resources now. Is Clement worth potentially a 2nd round pick and 3 million more than Escobar? Come on.

Clement's a good pitcher, don't get me wrong, but please, signing him for 7 or 8 million is a joke. That's what JP is probably offering Delgado, for pete's sake!

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-0411210068nov21,1,1807436.story?coll=cs-baseball-print
Cubs have said that they are going to offer Clement arbitration.
COMN

That "Clement arbitration" link requires a login and password -- "velard" and "julian" will do quite nicely for anyone wishing to read the story.

For the life of me I can't understand why you'd pay Clement big bucks but not Delgado. The Jays can't hit. At all. So they're going to get rid of a Hall-of-Fame slugger for a 30 year old pitcher who has never won more than 14 games in a season and sports a career 69-75 record.

The big unknown is what kind of money Delgado is being offered by other teams.

What I suspect is that Delgado is going end up getting $3-4 million more a year than what the Jays are offering, and that the Jays realize that. Given that, and the lack of impact players at 1B/DH in free agency, I think the Jays feel that a pitcher like Clement is the best way to allocate their money.

FWIW, his road ERA the past 3 years is 4.07, helped by a 2.55 ERA on the road in 2002.

However, what I think might be worth paying attention to is Clement's ERA during the day and night:

Day ERA: 3.36
Night ERA: 4.37
(those are over the past 3 years)

At night Clement gives up a lot more HRs. I'm not sure if the ball is carrying better at night, or the sun is an advantage for the pitchers in the day, but it probably deserves a deeper look.

For the type of money he'll fetch, it isn't.

Clement is an elite pitcher.

If what you are saying is that no pitcher is worth that kind of money, because they are so unpredictable, then I might agree.

But if there are pitchers out there who are worth that contract, Clement is one of them. Even when searching for some line or combination of lines that would make him look bad, the most unflattering that can be come up with is 154 innings, 151 strikeouts, 68 walks. That's 8.82 strikeouts per nine innings, and 2.22 strikeouts per walk. Those are superstar numbers. There were 120 pitchers who started at least 20 games in 2004. Here is a list of the ones with a better than 8.82 k/9 ratio this season: Ben Sheets, Randy Johnson, Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Jake Peavy, Jason Schmidt, Oliver Perez, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Roger Clemens and Matt Clement.

I also recieved news from a friend of mine. the Jays called him on Friday to tell him that the Season Pass is back, however the price has doubled to $162. Still a good deal ($2 a game).

How do i get this?!?! sounds too good to be true. What kind of seats are they?

Is that per one seat?

. Even when searching for some line or combination of lines that would make him look bad

Please. I wasn't looking for some line that makes him look bad. Almost *any* line makes him look like what he is. A slightly above average pitcher.

Given the teams he's played for, his W-L record is mediocre.

That's 8.82 strikeouts per nine innings, and 2.22 strikeouts per walk.

And what about his homeruns? DIPS has three components and you ignore any of them at your peril. If you want to look at best case scenario, then maybe ignoring his homeruns allowed makes sense.

If Clement comes to the DH league and plays in the AL East, his homerun allowed numbers will be through the roof unless they hide him against the Yankees and Red Sox.

Clement's DERA (defence adjusted ERA, from Baseball Prospectus) the last three seasons: 3.50, 4.24, 3.73.

The homeruns are significant, as you say. The win-loss record is, as you well know, not.

His homerun problem is what makes him one of the top 15 pitchers in baseball, rather than one of the top 5.

If Clement is offered salary arbitration the whole discussion of whether Toronto wants him or not is moot - the Jays are not going to give up draft picks for him

I look at it like this. You can have Delgado and some lower level guys or you can have Clement and Koskie. I'd go with the later simple because the team is better that way. I'm not sure what Hinski would get you in a trade but his contract off the books is good enough. The Jays might even have enough budget room after a Hinski trade to sign a relife pitcher at around $2.5 mill.

I'm not a spelling cop by any stretch of the imagination, but Hinski? Hinski?!? HINSKI?!? It's not Mientkiewicz, for Christ's sake.

Lilly had homerun problems before coming to the Jays too. His were a lot worse than Clement's. Pitchers can develop and mature, even into their late 20s. I think the main issue with Clement is his health and whether or not he had consistently high pitch counts in Chicago. Because he's not an efficient pitcher (high pitches per inning) then his workload and health are a concern especially if you go three years with him.

Day ERA: 3.36
Night ERA: 4.37
(those are over the past 3 years)

Most pitchers do better in daylight. It may have something to do with the ball carrying better at night or simply not having sun or shadow interfere with the batter's sight.

Why would someone trade for Hinske when they can sign Koskie for about the same amount??

It doesn't seem like it would make any sense for they Jays to bring in any big ticket free agent ( including Delgado.) Call Billy Beane and get Durazo and wait until Feb and pick off the scrap heap...

http://www.dailysouthtown.com/southtown/dssports/pro/211sd7.htm
I looks like Cleveland is the main competition for Clement's services:

Free agent Matt Clement said the Indians have been most aggressive in pursuing him.
"They've been probably in the most contact with me so far from the get-go," Clement said. "I'm going to go there in the next couple of weeks to see them. The advantage they have for me is that it's less than a two-hour drive from my home in (Butler) Pennsylvania." The White Sox and Blue Jays have also been in contact with Clement, who should be looking for a three-year, $24 million contract.

COMN for the Cubs News blurb.

His homerun problem is what makes him one of the top 15 pitchers in baseball, rather than one of the top 5.

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree. I just don't see Clement as a Top-15 pitcher. Here's his VORP ranking for pitchers over the last 3 years:

2004: 40th
2003: 79th
2002: 27th

Here are 20 starters I'd rank ahead of Clement (in no particular order)
---
1. Randy Johnson
2. Johan Santana
3. Roger Clemens
4. Jason Schmidt
5. Curt Schilling
6. Pedro Martinez
7. Roy Halladay
8. Greg Maddux
9. Roy Oswalt
10. Mark Mulder
11. Ben Sheets
12. Brad Radke
13. Livan Hernandez
14. Mark Prior
15. Mike Mussina
16. Mark Buehrle
17. Tim Hudson
18. Oliver Perez
19. Livan Hernandez
20. Jake Westbrook

There's quite a few decent names left off of that list. It doesn't even include relievers like Gagne and Foulke.

I'm going to have to agree with VORP on this one. I know you won't, though, so I'm not going to continue after this post. I think by now everyone sees where I stand on the issue. :)

It doesn't matter how many times you put Livan on that list, he ain't better than Clement:)

I really like Livan. :)

Am I the only one with concerns about Koskie?

Since 2000, his AB have declined from 562 to 490 to 469 to 422. Last year, he only hit .251 (albeit with 25 HR) with a BB:K ratio of 49:103.

Looks Hinskesque to me. Or, say, Kieltyesque. And where is Aaron Hill going to play in a year?

My favourite pitchers' statistic is Shandler's BPV. It weigh k/bb, k/9, hr/9 and (slightly) opponent's batting average, in such a way as to entail the maximum predictive value.

So, being the bored loser that I am, I broke out Quattro Pro and did three year averages for the 120 pitchers who started 20 or more games in 2004.

Clement ranked 17th. I'd say that I was wrong in claiming that he was top 15, and that you were wrong in claiming that there were twenty better pitchers than he.

Here, by the way, are the top 17 (name... score)

1. Schilling... 189
2. Johnson... 156
3. Martinez... 150
4. Prior... 130
5. Santana... 127
6. Schmidt... 123
7. Sheets... 120
8. Halladay... 102
9. Mussina... 101
10. Oswalt... 101
11. Clemens... 99
12. Wood... 94
13. Beckett... 94
14. Wells... 92
15. Vazquez... 86
16. Radke... 89
17. Clement... 84

Am I the only one with concerns about Koskie?

Isn't all this talk about Koskie, whether fer or agin, pretty much pointless?

If Koskie is signed then Hinske either has to be moved (which will be all but impossible without assuming a huge chunk of his contract) or shifted to first base (highly unlikely given that he doesn't even hit like a 3B, let alone a 1B).

Clement ranked 17th. I'd say that I was wrong in claiming that he was top 15, and that you were wrong in claiming that there were twenty better pitchers than he.

Leigh, does this factor in innings pitched, or is the evaluation on a per-inning basis? Livan Hernandez has logged about 18% more innings than Clement over the last 3 seasons. (I only cite Hernandez since he had been discussed earlier.) Even if you argue that the quality of those innings has been poorer, they're probably not poor enough to offset the gap in playing time.

Also, do the evaluations factor in leagues? Clement hasn't faced DH's (other than in inter-league games), and that will help his numbers when compared to an AL pitcher's.

I think the Jays will be outbid for Clement, and that's fine with me. If Benson is somehow worth $22.5M, then Clement can easily expect $24M or more.

You are correct, Chuck. Those numbers are not adjusted for anything.

I think the Jays will be outbid for Clement, and that's fine with me. If Benson is somehow worth $22.5M, then Clement can easily expect $24M or more.

Just because one team foolishly overpays for a player doesn't mean you have to pay more than that for a better pitcher.

Don't know if it has been posted anywhere else but BA has listed the
AFL All-Prospect Team (as voted on by managers and coaches).
Good Blue Jay representation.

First baseman: Ryan Howard (Phillies); Brian Dopirak (Cubs),

Chris Shelton (Tigers), James Loney (Dodgers) tied.

Other consideration: Vito Chiaravalloti (Blue Jays) and Mitch Jones (Yankees) tied.

Third baseman: Mark Teahen (Royals), John Hattig (Blue Jays).

Shortstop: Omar Quintanilla (Athletics), Aaron Hill (Blue Jays).

Other consideration: Josh Bartlett (Twins).

Utility: Aaron Hill (Blue Jays), Casey Smith (Angels),

Right-handed starting pitcher: J.D. Durbin (Twins), Dennis Sarfate (Brewers).

Other consideration: Francisco Rosario (Blue Jays), Scott Baker (Twins), Steve Obenchain (Athletics)

I agree with Moffatt completely.

I have no idea why you would want to spend 7M/year on Clement. No clue.

Honestly, he sounds to me like Kelvim Escobar. The Jays wouldn't give 5M to Kelvim, but they should give 7M to Clement? I don't understand.

Just because one team foolishly overpays for a player doesn't mean you have to pay more than that for a better pitcher.

Agreed. But Clement's agent can certainly use the Benson signing as leverage. I know that Ricciardi is too smart to bite at $24M, but other GM's aren't. And of course the Yankees need pitching, so that will affect the market.

The Cubs are leaning toward offering arbitration to Matt Clement but not to Nomar Garciaparra.

Third baseman: Mark Teahen (Royals), John Hattig (Blue Jays).

So you mean Hattig is actually good and all we had to give up for him was Terry Adams? Sweet....

http://msn.foxsports.com/story/3182000
Ken Rosenthal has a slightly different take on the Blue Jays and Clement, saying he is one of several the Jays are targetting. COMN

Caino, according to my friend it is true. 81 games for 162 bucks. The seats are apparantly the same as last year (SkyDeck). One would have to go to about 17 games to get their money's worth. The Pass is basically a deal to get fans into the seats, and not a money making idea at all. By making the price double, they can double the minimum nimber of games someone would go to.

All this was provided by my friend not me, but I am assured is true.

I would also like to add an AARRRRRRGGGOSSSS to that as well.

http://me.woot.net
From the Ken Rosenthal article:

It probably was a stretch when Barry Axelord, agent for free-agent righthander Matt Clement, told the Toronto Globe and Mail that the Blue Jays consider Clement their "top priority."

Is it too much to ask that a reporter get the damned name of the newspaper correct?

Tangent ...

Interesting note in Jamey Newberg's NMLR e-mail today that plays into the wackiness of the All-Steve entry in our Baseball Hall of Names series:

I wrote this on December 27, 2002, after Texas signed righthander Esteban Yan:

"The least important thing I can say about the Yan signing is that I'm all but convinced that (1) there have only been three Esteban's in major league baseball history (not counting Oakland second base prospect Esteban German, who got an extremely brief cup of coffee in 2002) and (2) the Rangers are the only team to employ all three. Let's hope Yan has a greater impact in Texas than namesakes Loaiza and Beltre."

The Rangers have now employed all four. Infielder Esteban German was among the 13 players Texas signed to minor league contracts with invitations to big league spring training on Friday.

What are the odds?

I have a contact with the Jays, and I can assure you that the Season Pass is back.

get the damned name of the newspaper correct?

What did Rosenthal get wrong? Was the quote in the Star or the Sun? Or are you nitpicking that he used "and" instead of the legal name, which has an amerpsand? Seriously, as far as I can tell -- I went to doublecheck -- it's The Toronto Globe & Mail. What am I missing?

Mick, the Globe and Mail claims to be a national newspaper - it is wrong to call it the Toronto Globe and Mail

I don't see what else an American columnist is supposed to call it. The Canada Globe and Mail?

Thanks Geoff. That never would have occurred to me. As a non-Canadian the content in the paper (or from my perspective, more accurately, the Web site) is so clearly that of a Toronto-based media company that treating it like, say, USA Today, seems odd. It may be a "national" paper in the same way that the New York Times is, but in that example, the name of the city is of course quite prominent and appropriate in the title.

This is neither here nor there, but gosh Edgerrin James sure has changed! COMN

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/features/story?page=04sundaystudweek11
I should probably include the link...

Boston Red Sox

Signed RHPs Scott Cassidy and Felix Romero. Placed RHP Matthew Kaercher on voluntarily retired list.

Placed RHP Matthew Kaercher on voluntarily retired list.

Just out of curiosity, is there such a thing as an involuntarily retired list?

Anyone know a good site to find a player's minor league stats? Thanks

http://www.battersbox.ca/archives/00001415.shtml
Yes - COMN

http://www.sports-wired.com/

This site works for me! I wonder if the Blue Jays made an effort to re-sign Romero.

MikeD, not to pull rank here, but is there a different name you could use as a handle? I can't change my name because when I post a story to the page, I'm locked in as "Mike D" in our roster software.

Thanks, by the way, for the roster info!

It looks like the roster sensitivity training program is really paying off ;)

That does it, Fawaz K. I'm vaulting over the first few rows of seats to punch out both you and Magpie. Later, Dave Till will join me in cold-cocking Chuck Van Den Corput.

(That was the first and last Pacers joke I'll make on Da Box.)

http://www.mathesond.mindsay.com
#2624106 Posted 11/21/2004 06:14 PM by Joe:

From the Ken Rosenthal article:

It probably was a stretch when Barry Axelord, agent for free-agent righthander Matt Clement, told the Toronto Globe and Mail that the Blue Jays consider Clement their "top priority."

Is it too much to ask that a reporter get the damned name of the newspaper correct?

Would have been nice if he got the agent's name correct, as well.

I just read that Pittsburg took J.J. Davis off their 40 man roster; does that mean he is eligible for the rule 5 draft?

If he is, I think he would be a great find, he has put up nothing but stellar minor league numbers. Even last year when he wasted his chance in the majors, he still put up a OPS of .901 in the minors (yes, in only 84 ABs). The two years before that he put up OPS' of .896 and .877.

His BB/K ratio is worrisome though...

Just out of curiosity, is there such a thing as an involuntarily retired list?

Ask Jeff Cirillo.

Huh, another Miked, eh, I will go by MikeyD?

http://me.woot.net
The problem I had with Rosenthal's attribution was indeed the "Toronto." He wrote "Toronto Globe and Mail," all in italics, as if it was the full title of the paper; he should have written "Toronto's Globe and Mail," or, more correctly, "Canada's Globe and Mail." Unless, of course, there's some sort of formatting that FOXSports.com or the journalism industry in general follows that I'm not aware of. It doesn't seem too likely.

It's also possible that I've overlooked references on its web site, and the Globe is indeed operating as the Toronto Globe and Mail to everyone not in Canada. I've never before seen it referred to in that way, though—its front page has always read "The Globe and Mail" when I've purchased it.

I've never before seen it referred to in that way, though

I've seen it referred to that way more often than not by sources outside Canada; and frequently inside Canada. Much as The Times is usually referred to as "The Times of London" or "the London Times" by those outside Britain.

The Globe makes a pretence of being a "national" newspaper, but as it is produced entirely within the city of Toronto, it ain't fooling anyone.

"He (Hattig) should spend about half a season at Triple-A Syracuse..."
"Hill...will likely get a full year of Triple-A seasoning before he joins the parent club."

I always figured Hill was more major league ready. Pretty cool all the same.

"The third baseman batted .310 and ranked second in the AFL with 31 RBIs. That number is put into better context by Hattig's hit total -- he had just 35 hits, which means that he was dangerous nearly every time he swung the bat."

This seems more a function of having men on base, while at bat. Is there much we can read into this?

So Craig, is 'The Globe' not available in Vancouver?

I just read that Pittsburg took J.J. Davis off their 40 man roster

He only had 119 ABs last year. I assume he was hurt - is he healthy now?

FWIW, Davis had 20 HRs in 348 ABs in 2002 in AA at age 23 and 26 HRs in 426 ABs in AAA in 2003 (although it was the PCL).

I just gotta say it once now that I'm home and get it out of my system:

AAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOS!!!!!!

Thank you.

Ugh. Stupid Argos.

Only in the CFL could the league's "Most outstanding player" sit on the bench in the most important game of the year. Unbelievable. o_O

While we're talking about football...

I remember a while ago I said that Favre was NFL's Jeter, and someone disagreed. Whoever that was: Are you watching this game??!

This love-fest from the announcers is absolutely nauseating. McCarver has nothing on these guys.

LOL, ya I heard some of it on the radio. "He has the body of a twenty year old". I was pretty grossed out. Besides, I'm twenty... [Insert Punch Line Here]. Though I assume they meant an athletic twenty-year old.

Yeah it is pretty funny, they are falling over themselves to say the next nice thing about him. But I'm in too good a mood right now to let even annoying announcers and thoughts of Jeter bother me.

I would love to see a Ravens-Packers Sunday nighter. I suspect McGuire's head might explode with glee upon seeing Ray-Ray and Favre run onto the field. Seriously, these three are the worst in any sport. When you're saying that Joe Theisman is the best of the lot, you've really found yourself an asylum.

I remember a while ago I said that Favre was NFL's Jeter, and someone disagreed. Whoever that was: Are you watching this game??!

Yup, he's a winner again tonight!

Anyone see that Drew Henson was 6-gor-6 with a TD in mopup duty for the Boys? He's already a better football player than he was a third baseman.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/benson-and-rusch-sign/
Studes has done a fine analysis of the Benson/Rusch signings in THT. COMN. The analysis has implications for the value of Matt Clement. Clement is indeed worth about $5-$6 million/yr. if he performs the way he did last year. But his value goes up or down $3-$5 million if his ERA goes up or down .5.

His FIP of 4.09 is good, but not great (the league average FIP and ERA in the National League was 4.31). In the American League, the league average FIP and ERA was 4.63. The equivalent of Clement's performance last year in Toronto, assuming average defence, would be a FIP and ERA of about 4.4.

You really have to expect significant improvement to sign him at even Benson's contract, and he's likely to get much more.

This seems more a function of having men on base, while at bat. Is there much we can read into this?

Partially. It's also a function of extra base hits. In 113 ab Hattig had 35 hits, 14 for extra bases (9 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR). That means 5 out of 35 hits would have cleared everyone off the bases and the 9 doubles would have cleared everyone off 2B and 3B (and sometimes 1B).

Hill on the other hand had virtually the same playing time (short one game). 108 ab, 34 h, 6 2B, 2 HR. A significant reduction in 'base clearing power'.

Opportunity is only part of it. Hill never found a power stroke which is consistent with his minor league history to date. Hence the relatively low number of RBI. But he was still on a pace for well over 100 in a full MLB season which shows that Hill was consistent and had opportunity nonetheless. Sample size is also an issue. This was less than 20% of a full year.

every pitcher gets worse when they move to Toronto.

This is not true, in fact one pitcher had a significant turnaround when he came to Toronto, and then when he left his numbers dropped off. That pitcher was Roger Clemens.

hmmm, I wonder if this means when Toronto looks at pitchers outside of their organization, they should focus on guys with good K/inning ratios?

As mentioned above, Felix Romero signed with the Red Sox as a minor league free agent...

...Also Sean Douglass signed with Detroit and Paul Chiaffredo and Howie Clark both signed with Pittsburgh as minor league free agents.

MikeyD?

Sure thing, Mikey. Welcome aboard.

Question. Have there been studies done on the consistency of performance from year to year, comparing hitters, starters, and relievers?

It seems to me that predicting how a hitter may do, is a lot easier than predicting future outcomes of pitchers , particularly relievers.

What I'm getting at is, why would a team with limited resources and little room for margin of error, pursue expensive free agent pitching options( especially given increased chance of injury with hurlers)over that of a more proven commodity? I've always thought the "Blue-Jay master plan" was to develop your own deep pitching depth to avoid this problem. Is this pursuit of Clemens a smoke screen?

Is this pursuit of Clemens a smoke screen

A Freudian typo? :)

It could very well be a case of Clement's agent trying to make his client appear more sought-after

http://www.battersbox.ca/archives/00002531.shtml#253199
A Freudian typo? :)

I just want to remind everyone that Mighty Magpie still has the record for best typo ever. COMN.

Actually bringing the Rocket back, may well be a good Marty York like rumour to spread.

Pointless trivia of the day:

Without hitting the web, which members of Mr. Burns' ringer softball team are still active MLB'ers?

Does Clemens count? Griffey is the only other one I can think of, but I can't remember who the LF and C were.

Scioscia runs the Angels. Mattingly is the batting coach in New York. Steve Sax disappeared after taking control of Chuck Knoblauch's body. I'm not sure where Ozzie is, but he's retired. Wade Boggs is doing something in Tampa I believe. Strawberry, I'm assuming is either dead or in prison. Jose Canseco is a human punchline.

Ken Griffey Jr? Don't know if I'd say he's active in MLB; maybe I'd say he visits from the hospital occasionally.

Ah of course, Clemens...forgot that the team had a pitcher. Too many years spent observing the Jays bullpen, I just try not to think about the pitching...

http://www.snpp.com/episodes/8F13.html
Tyler takes the prize in record time!

Very thourough analysis. Your mediocre prize is awaiting your COMN.

Anyone who didn't COMN yet can participate in the follow up question (honour system in effect).

Name any two memembers of the "dream team" Mr. Burns originaly wanted to field before Smithers added that annoying "alive" stipulation.

Three Finger Brown and Cap Anson?

For some reason Christy Mathewson comes to mind as well.

Hmmm... I believe Cap Anson was one... I think maybe Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown was in there too? Anson I remember as a picture on the board, Brown I think I recall Mr. Burns mentioning verbally to Smithers.

Does anyone else think that because only a few teams can afford to go after the big name players, that the mid level talent like Clement, Benson, Rusch, Vinny Castillo, Christian Guzman, etc are getting way more money than they deserve.

It's getting to the point where it's just not worth mid/low market teams signing these players.

Does anyone else think that because only a few teams can afford to go after the big name players, that the mid level talent like Clement, Benson, Rusch, Vinny Castillo, Christian Guzman, etc are getting way more money than they deserve.

Not sure I know the cause of all this is, but this is running contrary to what has been happening over the past few off-seasons, where baseball's middle class was (rightfully) feeling the pinch. Mid-level players were being non-tendered and signed for $1-2M rather than going to arbitration and signing for $4-6M. The intelligence and restraint that GM's had been showing seems to be going out the window, at least by the likes of Bowden and Minaya.

I'll give the prize to Tyler for being first. I don't recall whose photos might have been on the board, but the three names Burns actually mentioned were

Cap Anson
Honus Wagner
and Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown.

Not enough players named Mordecai today....

Let's all give Tyler a pat on the back for his Simpsons knowledge, and not one of those Gordie-From-Canada pat on the back to keep the references going....

Any one think Minaya's a good GM?? I'd let Smithers GM my team before Minaya...

I always thought Minaya got way more credit than he deserved. Leave it to an organization like the Mets for be fooled into believing the hype.

I've started a new hijack thread.

The intelligence and restraint that GM's had been showing seems to be going out the window, at least by the likes of Bowden and Minaya.

There's only been a handful of signings so far. There's going to be over a hundred more over the next few months. I think it's way too early to conclude anything.

Well, I did qualify my statement to link the actions to just Bowden and Minaya. I concede that time will tell how other GM's treat the middle class.

From the Ken Rosenthal article:

It probably was a stretch when Barry Axelord, agent for free-agent righthander Matt Clement, told the Toronto Globe and Mail that the Blue Jays consider Clement their "top priority."
Is it too much to ask that a reporter get the damned name of the newspaper correct?

Yes because it's a Canadian newspaper and who cares?

Play nice, johnny r. Some of us do care.

The irony, johnny r, is that you obviously care enough about Canadian media to have read this thread.

"By the way, I'm aware of the irony of appearing on TV in order to decry it, so don't bother pointing that out."