Princess Bride. Just saw it last week.

http://me.woot.net
Oh, I am so overwhelmed with the cleverness. Let me just sweep up this excess cleverness that I wasn't able to absorb.

Anyways, for identifying the masterpiece The Princess Bride, your horrific un-prize is this picture of Wallace Shawn:

Ah... Princess Bride... love that movie...
So, I went to Amazon to see how much that DVD cost (since I wore out my copy of VHS), and in its description, Amazon says Cary Elwes' character is called "Westley", instead of Wesley, as I thought. Anyone has read the book and could point me to which is correct?

We all know the answer, but maybe I'll get pity points for being creative...

Did anybody hear the Beltran wants a 10-year contract? What does he think he is, a little Princess? Scott Boras (his new Bride) is WAY off target with that one. Especially since Beltran is such a Butter(cup)fingers in CF (not really, but necessary for the reference)

Maybe if Andre Dawson comes back for the Giants he'd deserve a contract that big.

I have no intention of fitting Humperdink into my little ramble.

Wallace Shawn's best role:

Santana was the unanimous choice as AL Cy Young.

Ya I will definatly work on creativity next time. I was just so shocked and amazed that I actually knew the answer. I wanted to get credit for it before anybody posted it quicker than me.

http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
It would have been inconceivable if Santana didn't win the Cy Young

It would have been inconceivable if Santana didn't win the Cy Young

I agree that it would have been a very poor decision if Schilling was chosen, but Cy Young voters have made some amazingly bad choices (LaMarr Hoyt, Pete Vukovich, Steve Stone). W/L record has played a significant role and Schilling had the slightly better one.

That the vote was unanimous is a good sign. Maybe this means that Fred McGriff has a better HoF chance than I thought.

Any of the BP faithful here able to explain to me why the statistics section of their website says Delgado had a 2003 VORP of 83.3, while his PECOTA card says 66.6 and my copy of Baseball Prospectus 2004 says it was 71.0? I love their work, and enjoy the website greatly, but all of the analysis they do is useless if you can't trust the underlying data.

I've heard Durazo's name thrown around as possible a replacement if delgado is to leave. Does anyone know roughly what acquiring him may cost?

Given that we are atleast two years out of contention, I feel it is unwise to give away good prospects. However, given Durazo's age and production, he may be a peice to the puzzle that will help this team for a few years going forward.

Thankfully for Santana the voting took place prior to the playoffs. I would imagine that a bloody red sock would have gone a long way for a bloody Red Sock.

Joe, good work in unintentionally plugging My Dinner With Andre.

Any of the BP faithful here able to explain to me why the statistics section of their website says Delgado had a 2003 VORP of 83.3, while his PECOTA card says 66.6 and my copy of Baseball Prospectus 2004 says it was 71.0? I love their work, and enjoy the website greatly, but all of the analysis they do is useless if you can't trust the underlying data.

None of us here are BP insiders. I have e-mailed questions to writers there, and had helpful answers. You might want to try that.

Thankfully for Santana the voting took place prior to the playoffs. I would imagine that a bloody red sock would have gone a long way for a bloody Red Sock.

Nice one, Chuck.

Cy Young voters have made some amazingly bad choices

I have no faith in AL voters for anything. I adopted the IBA as my preferred award presenter years ago. When they got the vote 'wrong' it used to frustrate me, now I don't care.

Several nice minor league FA signings for the Blue Jays today, according to Rotoworld. I like Jason Alfaro, Mike Nannini, and Jesse Carlson in particular - but Matt Whiteside, Spike Lundberg, and Adrian Burnside have their uses too.

Wow, BTF just totally went crap-ola.

Cary Elwes' character is called "Westley", instead of Wesley, as I thought. Anyone has read the book and could point me to which is correct?

It's "Westley" in the book, written by William Goldman. Goldman also wrote: a) the screenplay for, among other things, "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid" and b) a memoir of his screenwriting escapades called "Adventures in the Screen Trade" (or was it "Film Trade") which includes a wonderful explanation of why he wrote the opening scene of Butch and the Kid the way he did.

So none of you future magistrates and noblemen and any ideas regarding the price to acquire Durazo?

Durazo for JF Griffin and Jason Arnold
In today Mexico city news, Loaiza's agent is declaring that the BJ's are the frontrunners about his client next contract ( texas is second)

So none of you future magistrates and noblemen and any ideas regarding the price to acquire Durazo?

I don't know about my future titles, but I don't see why a team that has trouble scoring runs is looking to trade one of its best offensive players.

"I don't know about my future titles, but I don't see why a team that has trouble scoring runs is looking to trade one of its best offensive players."

Ya I know eh. Especially for JF Griffin and Jason Arnold, as some have suggested. Just seems silly.


Besides Pistol. Your atleast Provincial Parliment material.

Seems silly?
jays gave Flop to the reds, the reds shipped a mexican pitcher ( don't remember his name to Arizona, they send Durazo to Oakland and in turn closed the loop sending JFG and JA to the Jays.
silly!

What price could Loiza be had for?

Especially for JF Griffin and Jason Arnold, as some have suggested. Just seems silly.

Who else suggested that? The only one I've seen was Jabonoso, and he was clearly joking. I mean, trading those two for Durazo would be like trading Justin Speier for Joe Kennedy.

What price could Loiza be had for?

Is it possible to trade negatively valued players?

"Who else suggested that? The only one I've seen was Jabonoso, and he was clearly joking. I mean, trading those two for Durazo would be like trading Justin Speier for Joe Kennedy."

Thanks tips.

Loaiza's price, don't know. I can't figure in which role he may be in. Fourth/fifth starter? that would cost a million and half per.

Why would Pat Hentgen file for free agency?

I hope the Loaiza thing was a joke.

2001: 5.02 ERA
2002: 5.71 ERA
2003: 2.90 ERA
2004: 5.71 ERA

He's an average 4 or 5 starter. Nothing more, and he's going to be overpriced due to his 2003 season. Just say no.

You're welcome, Caino! I'm always happy to help out a fellow Bauxite.

Do you need help with anything else while I'm here?

http://msn.foxsports.com/story/3154252
Ken Rosenthal's latest dish from the GM meetings is up. COMN.

Nothing particularly interesting but he does say that Dunn or Kearns from the Reds are available in exchange for pitching.

"You're welcome, Caino! I'm always happy to help out a fellow Bauxite.

Do you need help with anything else while I'm here?"

I'll keep you posted brother.

Why would Pat Hentgen file for free agency?

It's standard procedure. All retirees file for free agency. In the event Hentgen does want to make a comeback (it's unlikely but it's possible), he'll have the ability to sign with any team he wants, rather than being bound to the Blue Jays.

Why did Loaiza go from having a 5.71 era to a 2.90 era and then back to a 5.71 era. Whats did he do differently that could account for such inconsistency?

http://www.mathesond.mindsay.com
I lived in Chicago during Loaiza's tenure there, and I remember an interview with him in the Tribune where he attributed part of his 2002 struggles to his girlfriend's extremely difficult pregnancy (it left her paralyzed; I do not know if it was permanent or not. As well, he said that teammates made unflattering comments about him to the Toronto press, but hid under the cloak of anonymity). He also said that going from a guarantedd $7M to a $500K invite made him realize that he should take his craft more seriously, and that 2003 was the first time he studied video of opposing hitters. Judging by his '04 numbers, the VCR broke down.

The thing that stands out to me for Loaiza is the homeruns allowed.

2003: 17 (1 every 13.3 IP)
2004: 32 (1 every 5.7 IP)

So basically, from one HR every other game to one every game.

Of course...

K/9 - BB/9

2003: 8.23 - 2.23
2004: 5.75 - 3.49

Those don't help either.

Now as to why those numbers occured...I have no idea. My guess is that his success in 2003 was because of a new pitch, and then in 2004 the hitters adjusted to that pitch? Just a guess.

Loaiza made 7mil in '02?? WHY?!

Did Texas make the deal or did Toronto?

What kind of pitching might it take to get Kearns or Dunn? The Jays have some pretty good arms in the mid-to-minors but I'm guessing the Reds will want an arm from the major league level.

Loaiza made 7mil in '02?? WHY?!

Did Texas make the deal or did Toronto?

I'm pretty sure that was another stroke of genius from Dr. Evil (aka Gord Ash). How ironic.

http://www.mathesond.mindsay.com
Would Lilly + League too much for Dunn? Not enough? Or is Dunn dangerously close to being out of the Jays' budget range, making it moot?

I think a Josh Banks and Guastavo Chacin for Austin Kearns would be great for both sides.

This is not directed solely at you Mike but I've heard Kearns brought up a few times as an off-season possibility and I need something clarified. Maybe I'm missing something, I rarely get to see Austin Kearns live and I dont follow the Reds much so I'm just going on stats here, but don't these numbers concern anybody?

Year	AB	BA	OBP	SLG
2002	.372	.315	.407	.500
2003	.292	.264	.364	.465
2004	.217	.230	.321	.419

That looks like a pretty steady decline in all categories to me although he did do well in 25 games at AAA in '04 (.989 OPS). Is there something I'm missing? Obviously you can't evaluate a player based solely on stats but right now that's close to all I've got. Please enlighten me because right now Im having trouble understanding why this guy is desirable.

Obviously that AB column is At Bats and should not be expressed as a decimal.

Injuries have to be taken into account for Kearns in 2003 and 2004. When Kearns got hurt in '03 he was on pace for 30 homeruns and 100 rbi. We're also talking about a guy who was 22 during his first major league season. Kearns is a good player if he can overcome his injury problems. I'd be wary about giving up too much for him but packaging one or two good pitching prospects is something I would consider doing.

I wouldn't want to trade League in a deal for Dunn. Dunn is entering his arbitration years and with 46 homeruns he won't be cheap. Trading Lilly I might consider though I'd rather go after Huff than Dunn in that case.

http://www.sports-wired.com/players/profile.asp?ID=5906
I woudln't give up Lilly for Kearns. Dunn for sure. Though again salary may become an issue.

If I were J.P. which by all meaningful indicators I am not. I would offer Lilly to the Angels for Casey Kotchman. Comn for his stats.

They need starting pitching, and seem ready to give up prspects to get it. Now that said, starting pitching is more readily available on the open market than a their other big need; a center feilder.

But if we did get Kotchman by some twist of fate, we'd have a legitimate slugging first baseman, who will be major league ready in a year or two.

Jays would love to have Kotchman (I think any club in Major would love to have Kotchman), but getting him won't be realistic. From what I gathered, Angels are clearing salary to get another FA pitcher (Pedro, anyone?), which means they would need min. salaried first baseman (which Kotchman is). Now that Glaus and Erstad gone (Erstad IS gone, right?), McPherson and Kotchman would be corner infielders of the future. I very much doubt Angels trading Kotchman for anything less than Halladay, even that.

I think Jays first bagger problem would be solved by trading for Austin Kearns for Hinske and pitching prospect (McGowan?). I think Kearns can be converted to play 1B, better than 3B (which Reds tried), and stay healthy playing 1B.

But if we did get Kotchman by some twist of fate, we'd have a legitimate slugging first baseman, who will be major league ready in a year or two.

I wouldn't call Kotchman a "slugging" first baseman. He's more in the mold of Mark Grace or maybe Will Clark. Good average (.300 hitter), gap/doubles power and 15 homers.

Besides Pistol. Your atleast Provincial Parliment material.

Not bad for an American!

Erstad is still an Angel. If by some twist of fate, the Halos manage to sign Beltran like they want to, that leaves Erstad at 1B again. Glaus is gone but the job has already been given to McPherson. Despite hitting .370 in AAA, Kotchman still has no job there. I would not be surprised to see the Angels offering him up in a trade but I don't think it will be for a SP. They have two holes in their MI right now without resigning Eckstein and having Kennedy out for the first half of the year. Would you trade O-Dog + say a Chacin for Kotchman because that might just get a deal done.

Goldman also wrote: a) the screenplay for, among other things, "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid" and b) a memoir of his screenwriting escapades called "Adventures in the Screen Trade" (or was it "Film Trade") which includes a wonderful explanation of why he wrote the opening scene of Butch and the Kid the way he did.

Definitely Adventures in the Screen Trade. It was out of print as of a couple of years ago and took some hunting for me to find a copy.

The sequel, Which Lie Did I Tell: More Adventures in the Screen Trade is also worth reading, not only for his stories (and the stories about his failures are even better than the stories about his successes -- he has a chapter called The Leper covering the five years when he couldn't get work and a horrifying account of the making of Memoirs of an Invisible Man) but also for his analysis of other screenplays, including interviews with their authors. His takes on Fargo, Chinatown and There's Something About Mary are fascinating.

At this point I would not trade Hudson for anyone. If you were to do that, say for a first baseman, it would possibly fill a hole put create one more. Hudson can basically play defence for both the second base and first base positions right now. He has amazing range. The Jays could put a cement block at first base and still have above average defence on the right side of the diamond. To the average fan, Hudson's value is incredibly underestimated. There is a reason why teams win championships with good pitching and solid defence.
I also would not be suprised if Hudson shows 20 homer potential in the next few years.
Luckily JP has agreed and said his three untouchables are Wells, Halladay and Hudson.

There is a reason why teams win championships with good pitching and solid defence.

In the Red Sox case, maybe just the good pitching

I would seriously consider a Hudson for Kotchman trade. Casey looks like he will be a star as long as he can stay healthy.

And as good as O-Dog is defensively with a decent package of offensive skills, if I have both Adams and Hill, both probably capable of playing second, I have to consider it if I can get a star quality hitter at the start of his career.

Of course I might try to expand the trade a bit and maybe move Hinske's contract but even if you didn't I wouldn't poo-poo that trade. And yes that's taking into account Orlando's gold glove range. I just think Kotchman is that good of a hitter.

Keep in mind that Kotchman won't even be 22 until February. His isolated power in AAA was .186 and .176 in AA at age 21. That's just about what Vernon Wells' was at the same age. And Kotchman stands 6'3" and is listed at 210 lbs. He's not a small man.

To get a real appreciation of his power potential, if you combine his AAA/AA stats (and you probably have to adjust for the PCL as a hitter's league) he totaled 77 games and 313 at bats. If you project his final totals out over 154 games he was on pace for the following:

626 ab, 102 r, 232 h, 66 doubles, 16 hr, 112 rbi, 48 bb, 64 k
.371/.415/.553

I didn't take into account hit by pitches or sac flies otherwise his OBP might be different.

Taking into account those numbers and his age and the 66(!) doubles pace, Casey Kotchman is a freaking stud. He could be Todd Helton. He's that good. His walks and homeruns are low right now but those are the two things that tend to increase with age and experience. All of his other numbers are off the charts.

I think if there's any chance you can get Kotchman you do it. And I'd trade Hudson or Adams or Hill to do it.

I haven't thought about Kotchman in a while. Aside from the substantial park and league adjustments to think about, there's also his unfortunately long injury history for such a young man.

My thinking originally was that trading Lilly for Kotchamn, would give the Angels a proven top rotation guy at a reasonable price. That would free up money to go towards signing Beltran, whom they are interested, but may not be able to afford.

Basing this on yesterday's story from the L.A. Daily News which mentioned they need a center feilder and starting pitching.

All that said, I'm not sure if that is a good enough reason to give up a guy like Kotchamn. Or that this trade is the least bit likely.

What I don't like about a Kotchman for Hudson deal is that we're assuming "Aaruss Hillams" can play 2B and SS with no difficulties. Add that to Kotchman's experience, and you have three players with about 200 combined AB in the majors among them in the infield. Hill has never played above AA.

Trading a second baseman who was absolutely hosed out of a Gold Glove this year -- and has figured out how to hit LHP -- for a first baseman who has done nothing above Salt Lake? I know it's only 116 AB in the majors for Kotchman, but Gabe Gross isn't "ready" for the majors and he has a higher OBP and a higher SLG, in more playing time. If Gross isn't ready, how is Kotchman?

At this point I would not trade Hudson for anyone. If you were to do that, say for a first baseman, it would possibly fill a hole put create one more.

Agreed. If Orlando-for-Casey goes through, and he needs to spend time in Syracuse, now the Jays have no second baseman, Hinske's .310 OBP at third, and no clue who will play first for however long Kotchman needs down on the farm. Of course, as of now, they don't know who will play first base in 2005, but they do have a very good second baseman all ready to go.

I'll defer to those who know more about Kotchman's injuries, but I don't see how trading Hudson for him is beneficial.

However, I am interested with trading Lilly. If he goes, Batista moves (or should move) back into the rotation where he belongs. How high are people on Theodore Roosevelt right now, anyway? Does he still have some stuff hanging over him from his days of not being allowed to shake off the catcher in Oakland, or will his All-Star status for this year over-value him?

Who needs a lefty starter? Everyone, I suppose...

But the aim of acquiring Kotchman wouldn't be so he can step in and play. The aim is that he is a 22 year old first baseman, who in best comes to best circumstances, could be a legitimate clean up hitter for several years.

No one expects us to be competaive this year. And if a team isn;t going to be competative, then they should be putting people in place, to help them be competative down te road. I mean, if were going to be competative in '07 on, then doesn't this guy fit the bill? He'll be 24 in '07.

Looking at the team as stands. Who currently in the organization projects to be a legitimate clean up hitter. Crozier? Hattig?

Like RBilly said "if there's any chance you can get Kotchman you do it."

I don't like the idea of cannibalizing one part of the major league roster to address the need for a different part. I know, I know, you have to give something up to get something in return. But there are ways to do this. Trading an established player is fine if you have a legitimate budding star in the minors to replace him. This is why the Twins traded Doug M, whose name I won't even try to spell (to clear space for Justin Morneau), Anaheim is letting Glaus walk (Dallas McPherson), etc.

Adams and Hill, on the other hand, are unproven. They've posted decent numbers in the minors, but still have some question marks (defence, power, lack of MLB experience). And at the moment, Hudson is one of the Jays best--and most exciting--players. He's also relatively cheap.

The fact is that after the 2004 season, the Jays don't have that many desirable players on their major-league roster. The ones that are desirable are part of our core of good young talent. So this may not be the best time to acquire players through trades, unless we're dealing prospects. The situation may be different in a year or two, after some players blossom and others rebound from last year.

It seems like you, Greenfrog, are over looking Lilly. I'm not an expert at this stuff,IMHO he seems like a very tradable commodity.

But the aim of acquiring Kotchman wouldn't be so he can step in and play. The aim is that he is a 22 year old first baseman, who in best comes to best circumstances, could be a legitimate clean up hitter for several years.

Good point, but Hudson could be a large part of the team's success in 2007. Yes, he'll be 30, but who currently in the organization projects to play his level of defense and put up a 760-790 OPS?

And come on, is there anyone as loveable as the O-Dog?

Really, there's nothing wrong with Kotchman. However, I think Hudson is better for the Jays, going forwards, backwards, or upside-down.

Lilly for Kotchman makes more sense to me, as does...say...Banks and Hill. I just pulled those two names out of thin air, so feel free to replace them with whatever prospects seem like a better fit.

Actually, now that I think about it, Lilly for Kotchman next year looks pretty good. Lilly's 2006 is an arbitration year and hopefully he has a good 2005, which pushes his price up. Anaheim can take on his salary -- they have roughly 30 billion dollars to spend -- and they will have a "first baseman" on the books for $8.5 MM that year. Of course, the Angels will have to be stupid enough to trade what will be a MLB-ready first baseman in favour of Darin Erstad, but youneverknow...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/drewj.01.shtml
Absolutely unrelated to everything:

J.D. Drew's full name is David Jonathan Drew (COMN). Does that make sense to anyone?

Even if you take into account park and league factors those are some ridiculously high numbers for a 21-year-old. The scouts love him and the numbers love him.

If Kotchman actually HAD done something above Salt Lake then the Jays would have absolutely zero chance of getting him. As it is there may be a tiny sliver of hope they might be able to get him what with him being blocked by Erstad (he could still DH though). You might never have another opportunity to take a shot at getting a player of his calibre. Not that there's any indication that the Angels are contemplating trading him anyway.

I'm one of Hudson's biggest fans. I was defending his worth at a time when the front office was comtemplating trading him for the likes of Jeremy Affeldt and Aaron Heilman (and didn't only because they were refused). But Kotchman is a seperate class of prospect.

True, Lilly is a tradable commodity. But he won't be a free agent after this season and might be valuable to the Jays in 2006, if and when they contend (or are we writing off 2006, too?). They can also probably get an equally good return on Lilly before the trade deadline--if he continues to pitch well, a solid lefty starter will be in great demand down the stretch.

IMHO, if you let Lilly go now, the starting pitching becomes a serious question mark. Every other starting candidate on the Jays is surrounded by some uncertainty. Will Halladay rebound to be an ace for the Jays? Can he give them 200 innings? Is Dave Bush the real thing? Can Batista rebound to his 2003 form? Are Miller and Towers legitimate major league starters? Are Rosario, Chacin, Marcum, McGowan, et al prospects or suspects?

I would rather keep Lilly for at least half a season, to see how the team's pitching shakes out, before trading him.

"who currently in the organization projects to play his level of defense and put up a 760-790 OPS?"

Who apart from Wells projects to put up over 900 OPS?

Greenfrog. I agree totally. However. In regards both to Hudson and Lilly, though I would much rather have them than not have them. If we have a chance to get a guy like Kotchman, without giving up Wells or Halliday. I say do it. Because he projects to be another guy who could be in that grouping.
Granted. Hudson and Lilly are perhaps as close to being in that grouping as possible. And by loosing either one of them we are creating a hole in our line-up which we are not able to fill right now.
But what we would gain is a type guy who is INTEGRAL to a championship team, or even a contender; and moreover, a guy we don't have comming up through our organization.

I mean, imagine if this guy pans out and is a over 900 OPS guy by late 06. Him and Wells would be almost as nasty as Delgado and Wells. And a few million cheaper. Plus the timetable for his developemnt co-incides with when our picthers should be developed, and team contending. Is that not what you want?

I don't mean to beat this thing to death (which I recognize I probly did a paragraph or two ago). But we won't be contending. And if we need to play 2005 with replacement players, not even close to the caliber or a Lilly or Hudson. You still do the trade. You do it because Kotchman is precisly the kind of guy we lack, and we need.

Now, the practicality from the Angels point of view... that's a different story.

Let me just say that when I suggested the Kotchman for Hudson + trade I was making it up entirely. I have read nothing about it's possibility so for now it is entirely a battersbox fabrication. Having said that, with the split of yea's and nea's on this board I'd have to say it seems like a reasonable deal.

By the way, all the people touting Hudson's defence as a reason they wouldn't do the deal should also be aware that the word is that Kotchman is already a gold-glove calibre first baseman so what you lose in D from Hudson, you practically make up for with Kotchman.

Don't get me wrong, Orlando is one of my favourite Jays as well but count me in the camp that if it is possible to pry away Kotchman, I would make that trade...but of course it won't happen.

As sweet as it would be to trade for players like Kotchman, Morneau, Upton, pre-injury Mauer and Kubel, Swisher, etc, I think the reality is that by the time they've reached this level of hype, they are virtually impossible to acquire. In other words, everyone wants them; and the dealing team can legitimately demand a ransom for them.

all the people touting Hudson's defence as a reason they wouldn't do the deal should also be aware that the word is that Kotchman is already a gold-glove calibre first baseman so what you lose in D from Hudson, you practically make up for with Kotchman.

I have never seen Kotchman play, but this is just not true. Hudson was the best defensive second baseman in the American League this year. Kotchman might be good with the glove, but he plays first base. There's no way his defense can make up for what the Jays would lose if Hudson left.

Ah, who cares? :) It won't happen anyway.

I don't get the love affair with Kotchman. He hasn't done anything yet and all this "projectability" is guesswork. All the same things were being said not long ago about Carlos Pena, the guy who would be across from Hank Blalock in the Texas infield for 18 years.

That hasn't worked out so well, though granted the players he's been traded for (Mario Ramos? Ugh, though the Rangers also go Gerry Laird in that trade. Jeff Weaver? The Tigers did OK there, especially also getting Bonderman in that dea1.)

If, as the discussion indicates above, approximately the same cost for Kearns or Dunn would get Kotchman, you HAVE to go with the Reds deal. Although, frankly, I don't think these deals will get any of those guys. The Reds would be far more tempted by Lilly than the Angels would ... under Don Gullett, Lilly becomes a Cy Young candidate inside two years.

Carlos Pena was more advanced power wise at the same age as Kotchman but his stats showed less room for improvement and Kotchman is clearly the much superior pure hitter (i.e. simply getting the bat on the ball). Pena drew more walks and hit more homeruns but struck out at about three times the rate that Kotchman did at the same age/level. Actually Pena spent all of age 21 in AA while Kotchman split it almost evenly between AA/AAA. Both spent their minor league careers in the PCL.

In the long run the pure hitter usually wins out. I know batting average isn't the best measure but when Kotchman hits almost .370 in AA and then over .370 in AAA with about 1 strikeout every 9 at bats (as opposed to Pena's close to 1 every 3 at bats) you have to consider that a big difference.

Jason Giambi and Todd Helton have comparable statistical profiles to Kotchman in the minors. They were able to add power into their mid-20s. Helton's power projection looked worse than Kotchman's actually. He hit about the same number of homeruns but not as many doubles. He did have a much higher rate but he was also slightly more advanced in age.

In so much as minor league numbers mean anything, Kotchman is about as good a hitting prospect as they come. Of course I'd rather see him stay healthy one more year but if he does and continues to produce really big then there goes your window of opportunity to get him. If such a window ever existed. Of course the Angels may want to save him to use in a run at Randy Johnson in which case the Jays have no chance anyway.

Dunn and Kearns are great but they're both entering arbitration time and they will no longer be cheap. Kotchman would represent someone who could grow on the same schedule as Adams, Gross, Rios, Hill, Bush, Rosario, League, Arnold, Chacin, and a bunch of other pitchers.

He did have a much higher rate but he was also slightly more advanced in age.

Should read much higher walk rate.

http://www.sperts.net/article.php?page=332
COMN for the latest on Boras and Beltran...

http://me.woot.net
Clearly, J.D. Drew was trying to one-up me, J.E. Drew.

That's excellent bd.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=1921543
COMN for Stark's latest column. In it, he says:
Baseball did some preliminary fan polling before renaming the Expos. And the surprise favorite was ... the Washington Senators.

The only trouble was that the mayor, Anthony Williams, had already gone on record as saying the team would not be named the Senators this time around. And after all the heavy lifting the mayor has done to push a ballpark bill through a divided district council, MLB couldn't overrule him on the name.

So the club will be renamed the Nationals...

Is that official? At 7:07 Friday night, May 20, Brad Wilkerson will step into the SkyDome box as a Washington National?

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/11/13/sports1622EST0363.DTL
Blue Jays claim Seung Song off waivers from Montreal. COMN.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/profiles/SO/tbc7092.asp
Here are Song's numbers COMN
Pretty good strike out numbers for a waiver pickup. Has always been a starter. Maybe he will do a little better in the bullpen. Based on his age and numbers he doesn't look too bad. I wonder why Montreal dumped him?

http://montreal.expos.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mon/news/mon_news.jsp?ymd=20041113&content_id=913546&vkey=news_mon&fext=.jsp
It might be to clear up some space on the 40 man roster. COMN for the official Montreal release, which claims that he was the Expos top pitching prospect coming into 2004, but he gave up too many home runs and was limited to 13 minor league games due to unspecified injuries.

http://www.battersbox.ca/archives/00002608.shtml#comments
I've started a new thread for Song.

http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1493725/20041113/ol_dirty_bastard.jhtml?headlines=true
RIP Ol Dirty Bastard aka Big Baby Jesus aka Russell Jones

I was just curious what people thought of jeff kent possibly being a target, if carlos ends up leaving. He probably would be willing to move to 1st, and the guy can still hit, even if he has lost a step(or 32) at second base.

What makes you think that Kent would move to first?

Roberto Petagine got a mention in Rotoworld today:

Roberto Petagine is set to leave his Japanese club, the Yomiuri Giants, after refusing to take a pay cut. In 2004, the 33-year-old Petagine hit .290/.413/.561 in what was easily his worst season since heading to Japan in 1999.

The prodigal son returns?

He made 6MM in 2004, but was only offered around half that to play in 2005. I wonder if he could be signed for 3 or 4 million per year? Would it be worth the risk? He's been a little injury prone over the last few years, but he looks like he can still hit...

Anyone else hear Keith Law on the Fan yesterday afternoon?

Interesting nugget: with such a high first draft pick, they are looking a lot harder at the high school talent out there -- in the past they weren't so much rejecting high school players outright, just all the ones they might take a risk on were always gone by the time the Jays got to pick.

I didn't know where to put this, so I guess I'll just put it here. Sorry if it's been posted elsewhere:

Vern Wells won the MVP of the MLB vs. Japan series in Japan! COMN

It's a pretty good read as they get Wells' thoughts on Delgado possibly leaving and him having to step up and become the leader.

Oh, and the MLB won the series 5-3.

Congrats to Vern

Interesting nugget: with such a high first draft pick, they are looking a lot harder at the high school talent out there

Interesting, but not shocking. Part of the reason the Jays shy away from HS players is it takes longer to make it to the majors. However, HS players at the top of the draft are the ones that can shoot through the minors quickly.

Now if they took a HS pitcher I'd be shocked.

Upton and Maybin are generally considered the top 2 HS players, and it looks like they'll be selected quickly.

I still think the Jays will end up with a college hitter, not because of some 'college player or nothing' philosophy, but because that player will be the best one for them.

Someone said they wouldn't trade halladay but ...
Suppose the dodgers were willing to offer loney, miller, and jackson for halladay (and perhaps a top prospect).

would you do it ?

I would do this, and use the freed money to get some premium bats, and a proven closer.

Alright, I believe in doing whatever it takes to win, but I really don't want this organization to be ruthless. The team's already going to probably lose Delgado, the face of the franchise for the past 8 or 9 years or so but now I see people talking about trading guys like Wells, Halladay, for unproven prospects at that... why?

Why should we clear out some of Halladay's salary when he got the new deal last season and JP is the one who gave it to him and said he earned it. He earns his money, why can't he make it with the Jays? And why trade Wells, as I've seen others suggest? He's a rare CF in that he brings great D and great offense to the table, and plus he's a fan favorite. Why trade him now, when he's still affordable?

Losing Delgado is alright, but if your going to lose him, you have to do whatever it takes to keep "the face of the franchise" Halladay and Wells together. Most diehards just want to win, and root for the team, not the players, but that isn't the case with the casual fan and the media. And in this case I think Toronto needs to keep guys like Halladay and Wells around because it gives them an identity. I don't want this franchise becoming a faceless bunch of mercanaries, I actually want to be able to root for someone.

Suppose the dodgers were willing to offer loney, miller, and jackson for halladay (and perhaps a top prospect).

would you do it ?

No, no, no, no, no, a million times no. Aces are the hardest thing to find in baseball. If you get one you hold onto it.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1921631
Sickels has just rated Brandon League again. COMN

Interesting, but not shocking. Part of the reason the Jays shy away from HS players is it takes longer to make it to the majors. However, HS players at the top of the draft are the ones that can shoot through the minors quickly.

Yes, he said exactly that, and was using as an example that Upton kid who's doing pretty well and who got to the big show in a hurry.

Aces are the hardest thing to find in baseball. If you get one you hold onto it.

I agree. Legit number 1 starters are hard to find. I would only trade Doc if I have proven guys coming the other way.

I was just looking over those players that the Jays signed to minor league contracts a while back, and some of them are quite interesting:

Spike Lundberg -- Up until 2003 he was in the Texas organization and every year (2001, 2002, 2003) he performed well at AA and then worse at AAA. Every year, his walk rates jumped and he gave up more hits after being promoted. So Texas cut him loose (I assume) and he was with the Phillies this past year. In AAA, he was quite good, with a a 3.26 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 66 relief innings. It must have been terrible, though, every year: start out well, go to Oklahoma, get rocked. Wait -- I notice Oklahoma is in the PCL...could his bad numbers be park-inflated and not really all that bad? He'll probably start the year in the Syracuse bullpen, most likely an improvement over Mike Smith and Mark Lukasiewicz.

Jason Alfaro might replace Dave Berg next year, and I won't complain. He played 8 games at second, 43 at third, 52 at short, and 22 in the outfield for AAA New Orleans (Houston) this past year. He can hit, too: .325/.363/.477, with a 902 OPS two years ago in AA. The walks aren't there, though -- not since 2002, in fact. He also saw some MLB action this year; he played 17 innings at shortstop. I think he'll break camp with the Jays next year.

The first real free agent signing has just been announced...

Omar Vizquel has signed a 3 year deal with the Giants.

I like Vizquel but 3 years? Sounds a little long for someone of Vizquel's age.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylc=X3oDMTBpcDBuM2RlBF9TAzk1ODYxNzc3BHNlYwN0aA--?slug=ap-giants-vizquel&prov=ap&type=lgns
COMN for the link. 12.25 million for Vizquel by the Giants??? A little excessive; hope this high spending won't continue for free agent SS.

Spike Lundberg

We will have an interview with Lundberg to welcome Spike to the organization; he's very internet-savvy and was popular with the Newberg Minor League Report crowd when he was in Tejas. Shortly, probably tomorrow morning, we'll post a thread to gather your questions for him.

The most incredible thing about this, is that Kenny Williams actually didn't outbid everyone for the dubious future of Vizquel. Maybe he's learning.

Sabean continues to get the mathematics wrong... signing a free agent in order to abandon your first-round pick only works if you get good value for a free agent. Burning $5 million in cash on Omar Vizquel completely negates the $1 million you "save" by not signing a late-first round pick.

Vizquel will be 40 in the final year of this contract.

Incidentally, the Giants will pay Vizquel and also will pay Deivi Cruz. How about J.P. calls up Sabean and offers to take Deivi Cruz off his hands? At $800,000, Cruz is a terrific bargain.

http://www.dickiethon.com/~eczajka/atp4.htm
We will have an interview with Lundberg

Nice! I can ask Spike about his Oklahoma struggles, rather than wonder what caused them. Thanks to Jamey Newberg for the contact information (I assume).

I found an Newberg Report interview from August 1999 in which Spike said Vernon Wells was one of the toughest batters he's ever faced. They were in the FSL together that year; that was the year V-Dub just blew through the minors and arrived in Toronto on August 30. COMN for the entire interview.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3616
BP has the Blue Jays as part of Friday's Triple Play. COMN.

Guys, was I just not paying attention? I just read that Dave Berg is a free agent! You'd think that would deserve its own thread or something. If the Jays don't re-sign him, Moffatt's lady will be heartbroken.

I know the object of our low-A affections is now the Lansing Lugnuts, but our erstwhile affiliate in Charleston, W.V. has renamed their club the West Virginia Power, with a pretty cool logo to boot.

From the BP Triple Play:

...it's hard to replace a player of Delgado's quality at any price. He's a good bet for .300/.430/.600 sometime soon, and that ain't easy to find. Put it this way: last year's .269/.372/.535 was a disappointment, and that would be beyond a career year for any of his potential replacements.

That, in a nutshell, is why I'd like to see Delgado stay. He has been quite durable, has played through nagging knee injuries, and still put up decent to great numbers. I think that a 3 year (or 3+1option) deal can be done with the Jays. Otherwise, the Jays' offence may have to find another way to put some runs on the board. I can't see that happening while the Jays carry a few maturing rookies and other young players.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20041115&content_id=913660&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp
This hardly constitutes a hijack, but speaking of power, Barry Bonds won his 7th MVP award. COMN. Surprisingly, it was not unanimous.

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/2004/11/15/715598.html
COMN for an article that says Seattle is now the favored choice for where Delgado lands.

My favorite quote from the article, is this one.

"Well, the Jays aren't chasing Carl Pavano, Corey Koskie and Delgado. The Mariners are." Which is used in the context that Carlos wants to play for a contender, you know the 63 win Mariners, so adding those 3 would make them a contender. Although the A's and the Angels may have something to say about that.

What I find amusing is that one of their own columnists a few days before wrote about the Jays interest in Koskie, plus it is well known that Godfrey is trying to re-sign Carlos, and JP has stated he needs another SP (which could potentially include Pavano as a target). So the article is technically correct... JP isn't chasing all three, just two.

http://skychiefs.com/Press_Releases/2004/041111frenchresigns.shtml
Well, the Blue Jays *did* end up signing Anton French to a minor league contract to help Syracuse and you never know who else....

COMN for the story.

The newest Jay Spike has already posted twice in his thread about him. I am impressed with this guy. Check out the Spike thread.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statnlpitch/
Al Leiter's option was declined by the Mets. Do you believe in DIPS? If you do, Leiter looks like a primo candidate for a collapse. COMN for his stats and cursor to the Mets. His ERA seems to emanate more from the benefits of pitching in Shea with Cameron in the outfield than from his work. In a hitter's park or in the American League, his ERA is likely to be around 5 next year.

http://www.prosportsdaily.com/mlb/blue-jays/
COMN for a link to a NY Times article (which requires registration, and unfortunately bselig, bselig didn't take). Anyways, the headline is "Delgado gets Yankee's Attention".

I don't think I could emotionally handle watching Carlos in pinstripes.

Although the A's and the Angels may have something to say about that.

Um, Blue? Buck Showalter would like a word ...

Sorry Mick, I keep forgeting about those pesky Rangers.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/news/tor_news.jsp?ymd=20041113&content_id=913529&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp
Mailbag! COMN.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20041116&content_id=913843&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp
Vlad is the AL MVP. COMN.

I wonder who won our beginning of year contest. It sure wasn't me.

Vlad is the ninth straight player from the AL West to win MVP.

I guess if the games weren't on so late, more people would see these guys play and they'd get the recognition they deserve.

And have a chance to overcome that East Coast bias....

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-expos-freeagents&prov=ap&type=lgns
So Montr...er...Washington made their first big splash signing two free agents today. Both Vinny Castilla and Cristian Guzman signed with the Grays/Nationals/Youppi!s for two and four years, respectively.

COMN

Plus, Cory Lidle signed with the Phillies for 6.3MM over two years...hmmm

And these signings today are why waiting to sign free agents is a good idea. There's no such thing as a bargain at the beginning of the free agent period.

16.8 million dollars over four years for Guzman?! He can thank Omar for that one. Man, Gleeman must be mocking Bowden from his dorm room.

The Twins also get Washington's second-round pick, right? Wait, Castilla was a Type A...so that means the Rockies get the second rounder and the Twins pick in the third round?

How is Vinny Castilla a Type A free agent?

Castilla was the NL RBI leader ( a number they consider highly ) and his glove is top notch.

A new hijack thread is up.