10 years, 20 million a year... geez, Scott, that's a lot of money to pay someone to play stickball in your backyard. You sure it's in your family budget?

As far as Jays, Randy Myers got bit by a Garland esque bug

Worst free agent sigining? Come on, Mark Davis, who signed with the Royals after winning a CY Yong award with the Padres. He never delivered and really, coincided with the long and painful decline of the Royals that still persists today.

Mike Hampton!

Speaking of stickball in the backyard, Rocco Baldelli apparently tore the ACL in his left knee while doing just that and could miss half of 2005.

I think it is a tie between Mo Vaughn and Kevin Brown. When Vaughn signed his ridiculous deal, he was already an aging, overweight slugger - and he fell apart quickly after that.

To sign Brown for $15M a year for seven years at the age of 35 was pure insanity.

I don't know... I think signing flyball pitcher to long term deal to pitch in Coors air is one of the silliest signing... aka Denny Neagle.

QOTD:

For manager, it has to go to Ted Turner when he decided that he would manage the Braves.

Worst Free Agent, there are a lot of them, but here are a few nightmares that come to mind:
- Erik Hansen (Jays 1996)
- Denny Neagle (Rockies)
- Andy Hawkins (Yankees)
- Nick Esasky (Braves)
- Mo Vaughn (Angels)

second the mo vaugh signing to the mets

a potential horrible long term signing could be giambi to the yanks
horrible post seasons, decline in season production each year, more time on the d.l and the inability to play first base

Here is and article on the worst free agent signings of all time.

One of the interesting characteristics of the Jays since 1977 is their continous search for a good bullpen lefty and their failure to find one. Ken Dayley was signed to a 3 year FA deal and immediately started getting dizzy spells and only pitched a handfull of innings for the Jays.

Off topic. The US exchange rate as of Nov 4, 2003 was 1.3288. Yesterday it was 1.2075. That makes a $50MUS budget of a year ago equal to a $55MUS budget today.

I don't think this was mentioned, however I found this little nugget in the Denver Post:

Justin Speier, however, is not available with Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi confirming Thursday that the right-hander won't be nontendered...

I think this was a good move by J.P.

QOTD - A couple new ones:

* Mike Hampton's 8 year $120+ million contract with the Rockies

* Darren Driefort's 5 year $55 million contract with the Dodgers

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/news_story.asp?id=103709
COMN for a quick blurb regarding Delgado receiving interest from the Mariners and Orioles.

I really thought there'd be more discussion on the managerial part of the QOTD, because the overpriced f/a deal Q has been done so often.

I thought Tony Perez would be a great manager, but that didn't work out too well for him. Making Don Kessinger (!!!) a player-manager didn't exactly ring shortstopian memories of Lou Boudreau.

QOTD2: Ozzie Guillen.

Delgado said he began a training program to get ready for the 2005 season.

``I have to get ready because I'm looking for work. I've already lost a couple of pounds,'' he said.

Is it just me, or does this imply that he is not coming back to the Jays?

Manager? I don't know. But as far as the worst long term signing, that's easy: Jason Giambi, NYY. They're stuck with that albatross for a looong time.

Making Don Kessinger (!!!) a player-manager didn't exactly ring shortstopian memories of Lou Boudreau.

Giving any kind of authority to a man whose name that closely resembles "Kissinger" can't be a good thing... ;-)

Boras's statement is a classic negotiating ploy: if you ask for 10 years, you're more likely to get five or seven. If he'd only asked for five years, Beltran's contract probably would have only been for three or four.

yea, the giambi situation is so bad that the current rumour is that the yanks may try to get tino martinez back (who giambi replaced)

If Toronto can't keep Carlos, I hope he goes to Seattle - they don't mind signing players before the arbitration deadline - which means two extra picks for us!

Beltran is a career .350 OBP with a career slugging under .500. Does he honestly believe 1 great postseason (12 games) warrants a 10 year contract?

I get the feeling wherever Carlos Delgado signs, it will be before the arbitration deadline.

I don't think Beltran has peaked, and last year he had 38 HRs and 42 SB. Like it or not, that's worth big money.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/news_story.asp?ID=103718&hubName=mlb
COMN for an update on the Backman situation in Arizona.

Update: Backman has just been fired!

10 years at $20 million per? Er no thanks. That's way too much even for A-Rod and Beltran is good but he's no A-Rod.

It does sound more and more like Delgado is liking the look of other teams better. The comment about the large Latin contingent on the Orioles is somewhat telling.

I suppose we could hope he goes to Seattle because Bavasi has shown he'll give up a draft pick just to sign Ibanez so why not Delgado? If the Mariners signed him early, the Jays would be guaranteed the 31st overall pick and the 3rd pick in the second round.

Even if they got draft picks from the Orioles I doubt that would be much of a comfort with Delgado driving in 140+ runs in that lineup.

Speaking of drafts, Baseball America did their assesment of the 2004 draft and the Jays did not make the Top 5.

BEST DRAFT
1. Twins
2. Dodgers
3. Royals
4. Athletics
5. Rockies

In fact, the Jays did not have a player making any of the categories. Of course, their two top picks in Purcey and Jackson did not pitch much at all having signed relatively late (though that's very much preferable to not at all).

I don't think Beltran has peaked, and last year he had 38 HRs and 42 SB. Like it or not, that's worth big money.

I consider $12-$14 million for five years very big money.

$20 million for 10 years is suicide. Beltran will be 37 at that time and I'm pretty sure he won't be stealing 42 bases or playing centerfield by then.

It's quite possible he hasn't peaked but why would you take such a huge risk?

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/xteam.php?team=MIN
BA's draft assessment reflects their preferences. They have repeatedly made the case that high school pitching prospects are undervalued. COMN for the Twins' draft choices. As you can see, they chose Trevor Plouffe, followed by lots and lots of pitchers, most of them high schoolers.

The Twins' draft record recently with position players has been excellent, but it hasn't been particularly so for pitchers. As far as I am concerned, evaluating a 3rd or 4th round high school pitching prospect after 3 months of rookie league ball is pretty much useless.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1911763
COMN for espn.com's free-agent list, including declined options up to Nov. 4/04.

http://dugoutdollars.blogspot.com/2004_01_04_dugoutdollars_archive.html
Just looking up some number for the QOTD and found something that confused me a bit (as things usualy do).

Dugout dollars still has Clemens' retirement package of 1 million a year till 2014 under the Yankees payroll. Are the Yankees still on the hook to pay that or is it Houston's problem now and D$ didn't update yet?

Dugout dollars still has Clemens' retirement package of 1 million a year till 2014 under the Yankees payroll. Are the Yankees still on the hook to pay that or is it Houston's problem now and D$ didn't update yet?

I don't know this but might this not be simply deferred payments from the Yankees to Clemens based on a contract signed while he was with the Yankees. Thus Houston would have nothing to do with that.

"Worst free agent sigining? Come on, Mark Davis, who signed with the Royals after winning a CY Yong award with the Padres. He never delivered and really, coincided with the long and painful decline of the Royals that still persists today."

This comment reminds of something I wanted to post recently. It was in regards to whether any study's had succesfully shown correlation between contract years, and performance. Last class, my psyc teacher, who's specialty is sport psycology, mentioned such a stucy in passing. Apparently it demostrated such a correlation exists with pitchers. Unfortunately I wasnt able to ask the name of the study. But I hope to get it from him next class (tuesday night).

I'll post it when i get it.

When is the arbitration deadline? Same as open free-agency?

Dugout dollars still has Clemens' retirement package of 1 million a year till 2014 under the Yankees payroll. Are the Yankees still on the hook to pay that or is it Houston's problem now and D$ didn't update yet?

I looked it up, and I found out that the Yankees didn't pay Roger Clemens any money during the 2003 season. All of his contract (10.1 million) was deferred. At the time, he was still collecting 10.3 million in deferred money from his previous contract.

I also found a report from Roger's days with the Blue Jays, claiming that even though Roger had 2 years and 16.6 million dollars left on the deal, he wanted an extra year and an additional $27 million dollars if he was traded to Houston. Houston GM Gerry Hunsicker said "we are absolutely stunned and outraged". 6 years later, Hunsicker, still GM of the Astros, said "His charisma, character, credibility is all going to take this franchise to a new level." I found that to be a funny spin on Clemens' season.

I'm pretty sure that money is all money the Yankees owe Clemens.

When is the arbitration deadline? Same as open free-agency?

FA's from what I've heard can sign with new teams after November 11. Arbitration offering deadline for teams is around the middle of December IIRC.

When is the arbitration deadline? Same as open free-agency?

November 19 Day to file reserve lists for all Minor League levels and Major Leagues

December 7 Last date for former club of player who declared free agency under Art. XX (B) to offer salary arbitration. If Club does not offer, then it loses all rights to negotiate with and sign the free agent until May 1st of the next season.

December 10-13 Winter meetings

December 13 Major League Rule 5 Draft

December 19 Last date for player, who declared free agency under Art. XX (B), to accept an arbitration offer of former club. If player rejects offer to go to arbitration, his former club may still negotiate with and sign him until January 8th of next season.

December 20 Last date to tender contracts.

"FA's from what I've heard can sign with new teams after November 11. Arbitration offering deadline for teams is around the middle of December IIRC.?"

That's pretty awsome then. I agree with Demarco:

"I get the feeling wherever Carlos Delgado signs, it will be before the arbitration deadline."

But as far as the worst long term signing, that's easy: Jason Giambi, NYY. They're stuck with that albatross for a looong time.

I don't agree. Giambi had two very good seasons as a Yankee, even if he never does again. And as far as albatrosses go, the Yankees are the last team in the league to be hamstrung by a huge financial commitment.

Hampton and Neagle are both much worse examples. Neither has ever pitched well, despite signing for a guaranteed $200M combined. Both are going to be financial boondoggles for years to come.

And of course there's a whole gaggle of Ken Dayley/Mark Davis/Wayne Garland types that didn't play much or well after their signing, but their dollars are miniscule in comparison.

Boras's statement is a classic negotiating ploy: if you ask for 10 years, you're more likely to get five or seven. If he'd only asked for five years, Beltran's contract probably would have only been for three or four.

Is it Boras who represents Chan Ho Park? Whoever it was was floating $20M/year around during Park's walk year. He ended up signing for something like $12M or $14M per year, in much greener days than today.

I agree with Dave. Boras is throwing ridiculous numbers around in a highly transparent negotiating ploy. Ask for the moon, settle for a comet.

I think Guerrero's contract sets the bar for Beltran. Beltran is a much better defender and a better health risk, but not nearly the offensive player. A 5 year/$65M deal is what I'd expect Beltran to sign for. Maybe a bit more since the Yankees will be in the mix.

BA's draft assessment reflects their preferences

But they have rated JP's drafts high in the past, particularly the first one (which doesn't look as strong now).

Man life must be really good for Boras. Heck agents in professional sports have it good (except for Tank Black even though he just got 5 mil richer)because they usually get a 5% cut of all contracts. Just off the A-Rod deal alone Boras made over 10 mil. Not too shabby when you're basically pimping a player.

I see Beltran getting at least 16 mil a year in a long term deal (5-7 years). The simple reason being the Yanks are involved. Beltran's contract no matter how big it is, is chump change for George. He wants Beltran and no team will outbid him for his services. It appears the two biggest factors for Beltran is : Money and Winning. Well the Yanks fit both categories to a tee.

The funny thing is that you never know which type of players the free agent market will overvalue in a particular year. Last year, it was middle relief (Tom Martin, Kerry Ligtenberg...). This year, it might be superstar outfielders, platoon infielders or pinch-hitters. Your guess is as good as mine.

But they have rated JP's drafts high in the past, particularly the first one (which doesn't look as strong now).

True. I wasn't particularly suggesting that the Jay draft should have been in the top 5 (I doubt that it was), just that rating the Twins as the best reflects BA's own view with respect to high school pitching. Different analysts have different perspectives on this point. My own perspective is not that the Twins had a good or bad draft, but that we will truly have no idea for at least 2 years.

What's the worst long-term signing of the free agent era?

I instantly thought "Wayne Garland." I checked DeMarco's link, and while the ESPN staff cite the Garland signing, the article doesn't give the juicy details. So here they are.

In 1976, a 25 year old pitcher named Wayne Garland went 20-7 for the Baltimore Orioles. It was his 3rd year in the MLs - he had spent his first two season, in obedience to Weaver's law, pitching long relief, and in 1976 moved into the rotation when Weaver gave up on Mike Cuellar ("I gave Mike Cuellar more chances than my second wife", said Earl.)

Garland made 38 appearances, 25 stars. He was 20-7 with a 3.28 ERA. He worked 232.1 IPT, struck out 113 and walked 64.

Already I sense Box readers thinking "just 113 Ks in 232.1 IPT?" Well, it would prove to be the only winning season of his career.

And after the season, he filed for free agency (I don't know anymore how that worked - he had just three seasons in the MLs; he had been drafted out of high scool, 5th overall, back in 1969.)

And Cleveland signed him to a 10 year $2.3 million contract. The money seems negligible by today's standards, but not then.

Garland went 13-19 with a 3.95 ERA for the 1977 Indians. It was a bad team that lost 90 games. He actually pitched pretty well for them. He made 38 starts, worked 282 IPT, and injured his rotator cuff. There were nine years left on his contract. He went 15-29 over the next four seasons and was finished by 1981.

He was the Chan Ho Park of his day - except Park's resume was way, way more impressive. Park had several good seasons to his credit. Park was a power pitcher with a capital P.

Honourable mention: the Yankees signed Dave Collins to spearhead their transformation from a team based on power to one based on speed...

And lots of other guys who would have been good if the doctors hadn't called off the career, from Steve Kemp to Ken Dayley.

And what's the worst managerial choice of your lifetime?

Well, with all due respect to Maury Wills (and a hearty HM to Ray Knight), I've got a special fondness for Tom Runnels in Montreal.

I'm not sure if what we're looking for are Stupid-Hires-In-The First-Place or Hires-That-Seemed-Like-A-Good-Idea-But-The-Gut-Turned-Out-To-Be-Incompetent. Vern Rapp, Bob Boone, Doug Rader, Jimy Williams - they all looked like a good idea at the time.

Whereas Buck Martinez, Larry Dierker, Jerry Coleman all looked like bad ideas - but Dierker was very successful.

Worst managerial choice: Tim Johnson!

The-Gut-Turned-Out-To-Be-Incompetent

Well, we all hate when that happens. Sorry, It was the guy who was incompetent. Everybody else ended up with ulcers.

Oh yeah, Mark Davis. That was INSANE. Nick Esasky, Albert Belle - you could at least justify those. You couldn't predict vertigo or athritis.

But Mark Davis was a LOOGY who had been around since 1980 and had posted seasons of 5-17 as a starter and 5-12 as a reliever while trying to figure out how not to walk 5 guys per 9 IP.

For two years there in San Diego, he managed to throw strikes, and took away a Cy Young and a big contract.

But then he immediately lost touch with the strike zone again... I always thought it was the pressure of trying to live up to the contract.

Hey, here's a cool trivia question I saw the other day. Babe Ruth's career BAVG (.342) is higher than his career ERA (2.28)

Who else can say the same thing?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1916993
Bulletin

HOUSTON -- Houston Astros outfielder Lance Berkman tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee and will undergo surgery within the next 10 days, the team said Friday. COMN

Houston Astros outfielder Lance Berkman tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee and will undergo surgery within the next 10 days, the team said Friday.

Berkman out for who knows how long. Beltran to likely depart. Is Jason Lane any closer to getting a shot at some playing time now?

Babe Ruth's career BAVG (.342) is higher than his career ERA (2.28)

Who else can say the same thing?

Jeff Tam? 1 for 2 lifetime at the plate. I can't think of anyone other than pitchers with a game or two of hitting under their belts. Also, Zeile, Boggs, Menechino -- all have high career ERAs.

Of course, I ignored the fact that 2.28 is actually higher than 0.342. ;)

I ignored the fact that 2.28 is actually higher than 0.342

And I'm glad you did.

We're looking for a guy who in 16 seasons had an ERA of 3.23 and a BAVG of .397 (31 for 78)

That should narrow down the era, anyway...

This isn't the guy you're looking for, but Ty Cobb went 3.60 ERA /.366
BA

Walter Johnson
2.35 > 2.17

Walter Johnson-- .235 BA and 2.17 ERA
Jimmie Fox--.325 BA and 1.52 ERA
Christy MAthewson--.215 BA and 2.13 ERA
Three Finger Brown--.216 BA and 2.16 ERA
Joe Wood--.283 BA and 2.03 ERA

Just about- Addie Joss--.144 BA and 1.89 ERA

Very Good!

Now let's have someone who pitched on live television!! In an LCS...

AHA!

Terry Forster!

Born Jan. 14, 1952, he played on the White Sox, Pirates< Dodgers, Braves and Angels. In '74, he led the AL with 24 saves.

Not sure which LCS he was in...

Just be happy that E------ L------ wasn't a free agent at the end of last season or his name would be at the very top of the Worst FA signings.

Why would a team sign a FA like Delgado before the arbitration deadline? Is the competition so intense that teams are willing to give up a first-round pick?

Perhaps. The only 2 real good options at 1B this offseason are Delgado and Sexson.

Well done, Nolan!

Terry Forster (aka "Fat Tub of Goo" - that was what Letterman called him). He was with the Dodgers in 81 as well, got into some WS action too.

Man, if the A's hadn't mishandle Menechino and thrown him onto the mound when he obviously wasn't ready, he would have an ERA of 0.00 compared to a .243 BA

Also:

DAvid Orr--.342 BA and 2.97 ERA
Stan Musial--.331 BA and 0.00 ERA
(He faced a guy he was battling with for the BA title on the last day of the season; the other guy [totally forget his name] went up and batted left against Musial [the guy was a right handed batter only] and I thought Musial got him out....this is all from memory- it was in one of my old Baseball Digest issues)
Honus Wagner--.327 BA and 0.00 ERA in 8.1 IP

Honus Wagner... figures. Guy could do anything..

We started this thread mentioning the "Curse of Rocky Colavito" and add to it here proposing the "Curve" (?) of Rocky Colavito.

.266 BA, 5 2/3 IP, 0.00 ERA

Magpie (or someone), this is choice info. Want to take a whack at a Pinch-Hit Hall of Names: "Sons of a Pitch" with a roster made up entirely of position players AND pitchers who had higher BAs than ERAs? Looks like it could be a good squad. COMN and let me know and I'll work with you to publish it.

Musial, I believe, was a pitcher at the start of his minor league career, until he messed up a shoulder somehow. What a hitter he was. I saw him play a few times, and he was a doubles machine. A fine all round player.

http://tsn.ca/mlb/news_story.asp?id=103828
The Red Sox have made an offer to Pedro. Seems really pricey to me.
That's a lot of dough to pay your 2nd starter.

Forster is really an amazing little story. He had 31 hits in 69 balls in play. For a slow player with little power, this is extremely unusual. Is it just the small sample size or did he have a special Rod Carew/Wee Willie Keeler kid of ability? What are the odds that a player with "true talent level" of say a .250 BABIP would have 31 hits in 69 balls in play? A .300 BABIP? A .350 BABIP?

The Red Sox have made an offer to Pedro. Seems really pricey to me.
That's a lot of dough to pay your 2nd starter.

He is the best pitcher in the history of baseball, though. If I'm going to take a chance on anyone, that's the guy I want to take a chance on.

He is the best pitcher in the history of baseball, though.

Craig, are you being ironic here? You can make a decent case that he's the second or third best starter in the history of the Red Sox, but presumably you are overstating for effect here?

I don't agree. Giambi had two very good seasons as a Yankee, even if he never does again. And as far as albatrosses go, the Yankees are the last team in the league to be hamstrung by a huge financial commitment.

You're right, he did have two very good seasons, but his contract is for seven years. If he continues to play at his current level (which somehow seems likely to me), those two seasons won't come close to justifying seven years of big money. Of course, you're right that even a bad contract as onerous as Giambi's won't hamstring the Yankees, but I wasn't considering the financial resources of the particular team giving the bad contract, just the overall value for money of the given player over the duration of the contract.

Hampton and Neagle are both much worse examples. Neither has ever pitched well, despite signing for a guaranteed $200M combined. Both are going to be financial boondoggles for years to come.

Neagle perhaps, but I honestly have no idea why everyone is so down on Hampton. Clearly, he isn't worth quite what Colorado gave him, but I have seen him throughout his career and other than those two years at Coors he has always seemed like a very solid, top of the rotation kind of starter to me.

Mick, I don't think Craig is being ironic. Statistically, it is certainly arguable that Pedro had a higher peak in 99-00 than Grove, Koufax or Clemens. Now, I think that it's unlikely that Pedro will be able to sustain his performance the way that Grove or Clemens did. Seeing as he's only 32, it's best to leave that to time.

Is there a mountain called Grove's Peak? If there isn't, there should be.

Is there a mountain called Grove's Peak? If there isn't, there should be.

Ironically enough, a Google search for Grove's Peak -- and I thought there would be one, somewhere -- returns an October 2003 Coach article from Batter's Box as the top match.

I think it's at the very least hyperbolic to refer to Pedro as the greatest pitcher in MLB history, which is why I narrowed it to Bosox history. Ironically enough, the "Most Similar by Age" pitcher to Pedro in five of the last seven seasons is ... Roger Clemens. Number two in "Similar Pitchers through Age 32" is Grove. I considered saying "third or fourth" rather than "second or third," btu comparing Pedro to Cy Young is like comparing Mike Schmidt to Frank "Home Run" Baker. It's just a different game.