QOTD - Nomar

By biggest stinker I mean the player that will be signed this offseason that will have the least bang for the buck.

If by biggest stinker it means who will have the worst contract going forward 2 years from now I'll go with Beltre.

The way Delgado has reacted this off season I wonder if he will Ever Fall in Love with Toronto, or does he just say he likes this city?

Teams are swarming like buzzcock at the sopportunity to sign Delgado like .

Let me try this again:

The way Delgado has reacted this off season I wonder if he has Ever Fallen in Love with Toronto, or does he just say he likes this city?

Teams are swarming like Buzzcocks at the sopportunity to sign Delgado.

QOTD-Carlos Beltran. Not that he's going to be bad in 2 years...it's just that his post-season performance and his high profile suitors are likely to drive his salary into Thome/Ramirez land. And he just isn't that great a player.

If faced with a choice right now between Thome, Ramirez and Beltran for the same contract, I'd choose Beltran. He's not the hitter the other guys are, but his above average defence in centre and his great baserunning more than make up for it.

QOTD - I think Adrian Beltre will be the biggest bust for the following reasons:
- he never had a lot of success prior to this year
- he seems to be after the money (one of those play well in your free agent year players)
- he just had surgery, this could have an effect.
- he doesn't have very good plate discipline.

- he seems to be after the money (one of those play well in your free agent year players)

Sorry, but do you honestly believe this tired old song?

You think if Beltre had it in him all along to hit as well as he did, that he wouldn't? You think he'd piss around until his FA year before finally trying his hardest? If he hit like this at any prior point in his career, he'd be a rich man by now. How can he be after the money if he intentionally puts off playing well for so long?

If faced with a choice right now between Thome, Ramirez and Beltran for the same contract, I'd choose Beltran. He's not the hitter the other guys are, but his above average defence in centre and his great baserunning more than make up for it.

I agree, although I think it's fairly close between Beltran and Ramirez. I'm imagining that Beltran gets 7 X 18 or 19 million. Manny has only 4 years left on his contract and will likely be a very good to great hitter for the duration. By the time Beltran is in his early 30s, he'll have lost a lot of his value, tied up as it is in his speed.

I wouldn't be surprised if the contracts for Eric Milton, Kevin Millwood, or Pedro Martinez offered the eventual worst contract for the team amongst this year's free agents. Neither Millwood nor Martinez are young enough to be likely to perform well during the last years of their likely contracts, and Milton is league average at an age where decline is the word, not grease, not improve.

You think he'd piss around until his FA year before finally trying his hardest?

Actually it's the opposite, I think now that he has the big contract, he will be lazy. But yes, he may have worked a little harder last year, extra time in the batting cage, staying in shape, etc.

Don't get me wrong, I think he's a good player, however I think he will be the worst of the guys that get the big contracts.

Also, because he has yet to prove that he can consistently put up these kinds of numbers, it is more likely that he will have a drop off in his production than someone who has been consistent over the past few years (like Beltran)

Beltre is young enough that a team could bite on him and still hope to flip him should he underperform. His contract would in that case proove costly to the team who signs him, but they could likely get out from underneath it. A poor signing of Martinez, on the other hand, would look a lot like having Kevin Brown, Tom Glavine, or Al Leiter on staff. I know that Glavine and Leiter have looked good thus far into their deals, but I am glad that the Jays aren't on the hook for the remaining years, that's for damn ass sure.

I wouldn't be surprised if the contracts for Eric Milton, Kevin Millwood, or Pedro Martinez offered the eventual worst contract for the team amongst this year's free agents.

I didn't even think about pitchers, any time you sign a pitcher to a big contract you are taking a huge risk. Especially if they have been mediocre like Milton and Millwood, or seem to have lost there stuff, like Pedro.

I wouldn't be surprised if the contracts for Eric Milton, Kevin Millwood, or Pedro Martinez offered the eventual worst contract for the team amongst this year's free agents.

I didn't even think about pitchers, any time you sign a pitcher to a big contract you are taking a huge risk. Especially if they have been mediocre like Milton and Millwood, or seem to have lost there stuff, like Pedro.

By the time Beltran is in his early 30s, he'll have lost a lot of his value, tied up as it is in his speed.

The same might have been said of Barry Bonds at the time. Obviously Barry at 28 was a better hitter than Beltran is now, but not a whole lot better. Bonds was the same type of player then that Beltran is now.

I'd agree if we were talking about a guy like Vince Coleman, but Beltran can hit for power and average and if he develops his power just a little, he's going to get enough respect to draw 80+ walks a year.

I'm not sure how I double posted?

Beltre is young enough that a team could bite on him and still hope to flip him should he underperform. His contract would in that case proove costly to the team who signs him

If Beltre signs for $15 mill/per season, and he goes back to he production of prior to this season, there is no way a team takes a chance on him, unless they only have to pay a small portion of the contract.

Beltran is unlikely to get nearly $20 million a year, Yankees splurging notwithstanding. The contracts of A-Rod, Delgado, Giambi, Piazza, and Ramirez have demonstrated too well the difficulties of paying that much to any one member of your team. The Red Sox just had the highest payroll of any WS winner in history to overcome the huge expense of their LF! Beltran will more likely be in the $10 to $15 range.

What did Vladdy get? His price will likely be in that range (less injury concern, less a pure slugger, more defence, more speed) or even a little less should the Yankees realize that they aren't really going to have much competition for him. Who else would be interested, really? The Astros would be hoping for a bit of a discount, the Mets have Cameron, the Giants are too cheap; the Dodgers (?), the Orioles (?), the Cubs, the Mariners, and the White Sox are the only other likely suitors.

For the record, I am assuming that the team trading an underperforming Beltre would still be paying some of his salary to trade him, but I think that arrangement would still be possible during the next three or four years even. Look at a Giambi as a situation I consider to be worse than this less than optimistic possibility for Beltre; paying anything less than his full salary is not possible for the Yankees. Neither really is trading Brown likely possible for the Yanks, wild rumours notwithstanding. I just don't see Beltre as ending up as someone you have to play because of his salary alone (Giambi) and pray for the best or as someone you'd be better of releasing despite the cost.

Beltre is a risk for the reasons stated above but he hit so well at Dodger Stadium so if he will move to a hitters park his numbers could end up even better/ as good as last season. If Beltre stays and he had a career year he will be vastly overpaid. I think/hope that the worst contract will be from BOS/NY for Pavano. During the FA competion at the BOX I put him down for 4 years with 12 mil p.a. I think there is a good chance of him to explode because he is switching leagues and having to pitch against Bal and the other evil empire and the Fighting Jays lineup :-)

In some suprising news the Cardinals and hitting coach Mitchell Page came to an agreement that he will not return next year as he will seek treatment for his alcoholism that apparently strained his relationship with players and management. Here's hoping he manages to succeed in teh treatment he seeks and turs his life around for the better.

The same might have been said of Barry Bonds at the time. Obviously Barry at 28 was a better hitter than Beltran is now, but not a whole lot better. Bonds was the same type of player then that Beltran is now.

I don't agree that Beltran is close to where Bonds was as a hitter at age 28. Barry was coming off seasons of 205 and 206 OPS+. Beltran is coming off seasons of 126 and 136. It would not surprise me at all if Beltran sustains this level of offensive performance into his early 30s, but it's not worth anything like $18-$19 mil unless he's playing great D in centerfield.

Bernie Williams is a closer comp, but actually Bernie was a better player also at ages 27 and 28.

As for the Jays aquisitions, we have already heard plenty of rumours for this off season. I've made a list of some of these players and put a percentage next to their name that I believe is the % chance that they will be a Jay next season (feel free to do the same or add players that I have missed):

Barry Zito - 10%
Mark Texiera - 5%
Troy Glaus - 15%
Korey Koskie - 15%
Matt Clement - 5%
Troy Percival - 10%
Ryan Klesko - 10%
Jeff Burroughs - 15%
Carlos Delgado - 20%
Erubial Durazo - 20%

I would put Jeff Burroughs closer to 0%. He wasn't very athletic when he played for the Jays 20 years or so ago. Imagine him now.

LOL! I even saw that I put Jeff Burroughs and forgot to change it to Sean.

DeMarco, what about Nomar? Certainly my letter to him will have at least made him think about Toronto. Say 1%. But you could bump that up to 50 or 60% if he likes Star Wars.

I have yet to see any rumours of Nomar going to Toronto. However if you have sent him a letter, then that's got to be worth at least one percent. Now if we can only get 100 people to send him a letter :)

Korey Koskie - 15%

Is that how he spells his name?
Or has he been brainwashed by Roger Clemens?

Korey Koskie - 15%

Is that how he spells his name?
Or has he been brainwashed by Roger Clemens?

I saw this one coming as well, fine, I will start to take the time and edit my posts.

Korey Koskie - 15%

As long as this K thing doesn't extend to "Kryan' Ryan" Klesko, I'm all right with it.

I think the more important issue is what hitter will David Bush be traded for.

What's up mathesond, how's Toronto?

I don't think Bush will be traded, or elected president.

Chacin on the other hand I think will be dealt.

QOTD: Milton and Pavano, both of whom I expect to end up in pinstripes, will take the most heat for beign overpaid as they settle into their 13-11 status quo. Pedro, who I do not think will end up in NY, will BE the most overpaid. He has very little left. Pedro is going to end up being Wayne Garland, except that Pedro had a HOF career before imploding and Garland had one good season.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_10_31.php#003885
For Chacin to be dealt, there would have to be a market for him. I can't see there being much of one for him right now, at least, not nearly as the one for Bush. Which leads me to thing that maybe, just maybe the Rangers will trade Soriano's contract away (to the Yankees, perhaps? Nah. Maybe the Dodgers, though), paving the way for a Bush/Hudson for Texeira deal...

Toronto's good, though I miss Chicago. But the subways are a helluva lot cleaner. Architecture isn't as interesting, but hey, it's just a bunch of buildings anyway.

As for the other Bush, COMN for a taste of the latest scare tactics being used by Florida Repubs.

think, not thing. D'oh.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_10_31.php#003886
And in yet another correction, this is the link I alluded to earlier

just maybe the Rangers will trade Soriano's contract away

This is a mortal lock,but TEX is finding his market value has dried up. They wanted to do a Soriano-Reyes deal with NYM, but the Mets have backed off. NYY has nothing of interest to offer the Rangers for Soriano.

I will repeat this slowly from a few weeks ago. Mark. Teixeira. Will. Not. Be. Traded.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=1912252
ESPN has an update of sorts on Rosario COMN

I would hate to see the potential Bush/League tandem broken up.

I think the only way Texiara ends up a Jay is if Wells is included in the deal. It would not surprise me to see Hudson go, if the deal is right.

I will repeat this slowly from a few weeks ago. Mark. Teixeira. Will. Not. Be. Traded.

I am willing to wager that at some point during his career Mark. Teixeira. Will. Be. Traded. It may be several seasons down the road, but I suspect it will happen eventually.

mathesond, do you honestly think that Mick was saying Teixeira will never ever ever be traded any time in the next hundred years or do you think from the context of the conversation so far that Mick was talking about this offseason?

My money is on the latter.

NFH, I think Mick is a gentleman who says exactly what he means. Judging by the condescending tone he took, I felt it was entirely appropriate of me to take his words at face value.

Actually I think Mick was referring to the BBFL where I can guarantee that Mark. Teixeira. Will. Not. Be. Traded.

As for the Jays I think its something that JP should work towards even if it costs him Wells.

http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
I could see a Jeff Kent contract becoming an albatross. Houston would like him back at a discount, but I see him going to the Yankees - you know George isn't going to put up with another season of Miguel Cairo.

I don't put any stock in guys "trying harder" in their contract year.
For every player with a career year heading into free agency, there are just as many who suffer off years. Witness Delgado this season. Was he just slacking? The guys with career years, like Beltre, just get more press.

Baseball is a sport in which it's very easy to track individual performance. I don't think you ever see a player strike out for lack of trying.

Does anyone remember any studies about the FA year bump?

I could swear that I've read studies that have confirmed that it's real, but I can't find them anywhere now.

http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/library/hof_honorees.htm
Don't know if this has been posted recently. As of today, the Hall of Fame has opened up fan voting to select nominees for the Ford Frick award for broadcasters. COMN

You can vote once per day. Tom Cheek is on the ballot, and I know Mike Wilner (and I think the Jays) are promoting him for the 2004 award.

From the site:
For the second consecutive year, fans have the opportunity to participate in the Ford C. Frick Award voting process. Select up to three candidates from the ballot below. The top three vote-getters will be placed on the final ballot for consideration for the 2005 Ford C. Frick Award, presented annually to a broadcaster for major contributions to the game of baseball. View a list of Frick Award winners.

A minimum of 10 years of continuous major league service with a club, network, or combination thereof is required to be considered. Broadcasters may be active or retired.

Voters may select up to three candidates and should base their selections on four criteria: longevity; continuity with a club; honors, including awards and national assignments, such as the World Series and All Star-Games; and popularity with the fans.

Voting will run from November 1, 2004, through December 1, 2004. Be advised that only one ballot per person, per day, will be accepted.

The final 2005 Ford C. Frick Award ballot, including the three fan selections, will be announced in December.

hey, sound like I could start a new comic book series ..."The League of Condescending Gentlemen." Cool!

I don't think you ever see a player strike out for lack of trying.

Actually I'm pretty sure I did once. It was the aforesaid Jeff Burroughs. He was the last batter to face Phil Niekro in the game when Niekro got his 300th win; and his 'swings' gave new meaning to the word "feeble". Burroughs and Niekro were, I gather, old buddies. And anyway the Jays had clinched the division title the day before.

Witness Delgado this season. Was he just slacking?

Delgado was injured, however, it is interesting to note that Delgado did get his ridiculous contract because of one extraordinary year, and he never followed up with another.

Again, I think it has more to do with players getting lazy once they get the big contract.

Which was his "extrodinary year"? 2003?

2003 was very good, however I don't feel it was quite as good as his 2000 season.

Also I don't think Delgado was lazy, I was referring to players that really struggle after the big contracts. See Bartolo Colon.

Attention Blue Jays fans,

Now that it is November it's time to get out and vote. The nominees for 2005 Ford Frick award. There are several Blue Jays broadcasters on the list.

Here is the website address http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/library/frick_voting/index.asp

1. Tom Cheek
2. Jerry Howarth
3. Don Chevrier
4. Fergie Olver
5. Tony Kubek

I think that this year every Blue Jay fan should vote for Tom Cheek in the Hall of Fame. He's been the voice of the Blue Jays for 27 years. His streak of over 4000 games without being absent is remarkable. He's broadcasted the two world Series championship games.

Touch em all Joe You'll Never Hit A Bigger Home Run in your life.

I encourage everyone to touch your keyboard and put Tom Cheek in the Hall of Fame

Again, I think it has more to do with players getting lazy once they get the big contract.

In the 3 years following the signing of his 'ridiculous' contract, Delgado put up years of 141, 153, 160 OPS+. The decline in his OBP in 2001-2003 relative to 2000 appears to be directly attributable to his drop in BA from .344 to the ~.270-.280 range.

While his slugging was down from the astronomical .664 it was in 2000, he still knocked the ball around enough such that he was in the top 10 of OPS+ in each of the 3 years.

Yup. That man certainly dogged it after getting his phat contract. Good thing he's a free agent, and we arent gonna offer him another one.

Delgado's extraordinary year was around age 26 which is when a lot of players have their best seasons. Nomar Garciaparra has never hit .370 again but does that mean he hasn't been trying or that it was just one outstanding year for him? Was Ichiro Suzuki not trying very hard after his rookie year and suddenly trying harder this year?

There are too many factors to list which can cause variances in player performance. Including things we can't possibly know. Delgado had one great year but he has had very good years since then. Just last season he drove in over 140 runs. And he hasn't been under the .900 ops mark very often lately if at all.

That said, there was a study done years ago which suggested that players tend to do better in their free agency years. But let's just say your salary next year could be doubled or tripled if you put extra effort into your work this year. Of course you would try your best. And then you take that incentive away will you work as hard? In most cases, not likely.

study done years ago which suggested that players tend to do better in their free agency years

To repeat something that my 1st year psych prof hammered into my head, correlation does not imply causation.

It would be very interesting to see how much overlap there was between a players walk year, and the year that they turn 26-28.

I thought that I was going insane this morning when I kept thinking that I heard my radio saying that Abbie Hoffman has been elected to the Canadian Sports Hall of Fame. Was there some connection between him and sports in Canada that was forged in the post- Steel this Book years? I am a fan of both Abbie Hoffman and Canadian sports - surely I'd know if such a connection existed? Weird, in a Dave Stieb for the Rock'n'Roll Hall of Fame or Dostoevsky for the Order of Canada kind of way.

Alas, a quick logon to tsn.ca and I'd figured it out:

"Hoffman competed in four Olympics from 1962 to 1976 and she won track gold at the 1966 Commonwealth Games. A tireless worker for women in sport, she was the first female director of Sport Canada (1981-91) where she developed the Athlete Assistance and Best Ever programs."

Ah, so that's Abby Hoffman, with a y (the letter, not the chromosome).

Got it.

Steel

Of course I meant Steal.

I'm just pointing out that Delgado had his best season before he signed that contract, since you singled him out in your comments. I think by no means is he a poster boy for players that tanked after signing a contract. The following players are really the types that I'm reffering to:

- Edgardo Alfonzo
- Kevin Appier
- Miguel Batista
- Brett Boone
- Pat Burrell
- Jeff Cirillo
- Bartolo Colon
- Eric Hinske
- Darren Driefort
- Jermain Dye
- Darren Erstad
- Cliff Floyd
- Jason Giambi
- Ken Griffey Jr
- Brian Giles
- Mike Hampton
- Richard Hidalgo
- Bobby Higginson
- Todd Hundly
- Charles Johnson
- Andrew Jones
- Brian Jordan
- Eric Karros
- Joe Mays
- Pat Mearse
- Raul Mondesi
- Danny Neagle
- Dean Palmer
- Chan Ho Park
- Rick Reed
- Tim Salmon
- David Segui
- Greg Vaughan
- Mo Vaughan
- Ismeal Valdez

I do realize that injuries played a part with some of these guys, and others didn't deserve the contracts in the first place. However, there are a lot of guys just in the last few years that have tanked, or dropped there production significantly after signing a big contract.

However, there are a lot of guys just in the last few years that have tanked, or dropped there production significantly after signing a big contract.

Yet you're imputing a very specific reason why the production drop, a reason which is not very flattering, attacks the professionalism of those players, and ignores any extenuating circumstances that may have been in-place at the time.

You picked a name previously as well. Is there any particular evidence to support the assertion as to the fact that Bartolo Colon's performance drop was related specifically to laziness?

To repeat something that my 1st year psych prof hammered into my head, correlation does not imply causation.

Yes, but you can't rule it out either. The idea that many players become free agents around 27 is another good point, but that doesn't mean that the spike isn't real, and teams should be aware of it.

"Yup. That man certainly dogged it after getting his phat contract."

Word. That contrizzie was dope.

You picked a name previously as well. Is there any particular evidence to support the assertion as to the fact that Bartolo Colon's performance drop was related specifically to laziness?

Are you suggesting that you don't think Bartolo gaining 100 lbs after signing his big contract had anything to do with his poor performance?

I think Adrian Beltre will be the biggest bust...

When Adrian Beltre was 20 years old, he hit .275 with 15 Hrs in Dodger Stadium. When he was 20. The season he just finished having has always been in the cards. He had some health problems aggravated by poor medical care, and he's just now starting to learn the strike zone. But he's getting there. I think he might be the biggest bargain of the free-agent crop. He's 25 years old, he's already playing at an MVP level, and if he takes another step forward...

Beltran can hit for power and average and if he develops his power just a little, he's going to get enough respect to draw 80+ walks a year.

It looks like he already got there - he just hit 38 HRs and drew 92 walks. Both figures are career highs - his previous best is 29 and 72. Bonds is a decent comp, though, with the caveat that he's just not as good. Like the young Bonds, Beltran does everything, - hits for power, hits for average, draws walks, plays defense, runs very well. It stands to reason that, like Bonds, his skills may narrow as gets older - but he should still be an extremely good player in any event.

Does anyone remember any studies about the FA year bump?

No. I do remember a few guys who signed free agent contracts and went out and won the MVP.

The decline in his OBP in 2001-2003 relative to 2000 appears to be directly attributable to his drop in BA from .344 to the ~.270-.280 range.

In other words, back to his normal levels. Delgado's .344 average in 2000 had nothing to do with work ethic and everything to do with random chance. It was largely a fluke. When a lifetime .282 hitter hits .300, thats within a normal range of variation - when he hits .344... When a guy who hits 31-42 doubles every year suddenly has 57 fall into the gap, rather than into an outfielder's glove or foul territory...

Burroughs and Niekro were, I gather, old buddies.

There may have been, shall we say, "the morning after the night before" effect going on as well. Niekro pitched 8.2 shutout innings without throwing a knuckleball. The hitters had to have been seeing double.

And then he threw knucklers to Burroughs to close it out...

Magpie's pick for free agent contract most likely to be a turkey in three years:

Carl Pavano. I like the 18-8 but I don't much like 5.6 Ks per 9 IP.

"To repeat something that my 1st year psych prof hammered into my head, correlation does not imply causation.

Yes, but you can't rule it out either. The idea that many players become free agents around 27 is another good point, but that doesn't mean that the spike isn't real, and teams should be aware of it."

- That would be proveable be investigating any differentiation in production between their contract year at 26/28, and their next go at the open market. Also, by comparing these contact years to the other "normal years" which comprise the bulk one's carreer.

doesn't mean that the spike isn't real, and teams should be aware of it.

Not having the study in front of me, I'm not about to deny the existance of the spike. However, its quite important that teams (well, the clued-in ones at least) understand why the spike occurs, rather than just the fact that it does.

A naive assesment that 'players performance is improved because its a walk year' would result in teams offering relatively poor contracts to new free agents - the theory being that it was a walk year, and the actual performance overstated the players true level of ability.

This is in direct contrast to what has tended to happen - teams look at performance in the walk year, and presume that the performance is in fact the true level of the players ability.

My own belief is that there are too many other more plausible explanations governing player performance to assign much weight to the notion that players play better in a walk year, just because its a walk year.

Not to say that it doesnt play a role. Just not much of one.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/news/tor_news.jsp?ymd=20041030&content_id=908380&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp
COMN for Dr. Prison Fence's mailbag, addressing Halladay's health and other issues.

Bartolo gaining 100 lbs after signing his big contract had anything to do with his poor performance

Please demonstrate...

* The evidence you have that Colon gained 100 lbs in direct response to laziness/slackness induced by a large contract

* The evidence you have showing that the 100 lbs he packed on his frame directly resulted in his poor performance.

You are presenting a hypothesis ('players performance drops after a big FA contract, and its because they're slacking off') as fact, but you're not backing it up without anything in the way of evidence - only opinion and anecdotes.

The idea that many players become free agents around 27 is another good point

Except they don't. You need six years of service to be free-agent eligible. Very few players make it to the MLs to stay by age 21. We have one in this year FA crop (Beltre), and we had one last year (Ivan Rodriguez) - but these guys are unusual.

Most players who become free agents are already entering the decline phase of their careers, and are certainly reaching that time of an athlete's life when they're more likely to get injured.

Just to clear things up;

- I'm not suggest that a drop in players perfomance is always because of laziness, however without having the facts to prove it, I believe that some players do get lazy after signing a big contract.
- I'm not saying that Beltre will be one of these players, however since we are playing the game of who do we expect to be a bad sign, based on a gut feeling, I could see Beltre fitting into this group.
- I never meant to suggest that Delgado worked harder in 2000, or less in 2001-03, I was just replying to a comment that questioned why Delgado didn't have a great year this season because he is a free agent.
- There are many factors why players have a drop off in performance, many of which have been brought up.

some players do get lazy after signing a big contract.

And probably just as many (if not more) put too much pressure on themselves trying to live up to the big deal they just signed, and crap out that way.

You just can't generalize. Every case is going to be unique.

Except they don't. You need six years of service to be free-agent eligible. Very few players make it to the MLs to stay by age 21. We have one in this year FA crop (Beltre), and we had one last year (Ivan Rodriguez) - but these guys are unusual.

I think I know what you meant Magpie. Ivan Rodriguez was, of course, over 27 last year, but he did come up at 19 and was first eligible for free agency before 27.

Yeah, I was referring to players making it to the MLs by age 21. Rueben Sierra as well!

* The evidence you have that Colon gained 100 lbs in direct response to laziness/slackness induced by a large contract

I believe that anyone who gains a lot of weight outside of trying to bulk up, is partially a result of being lazy. However I don't have the evidence to prove this, nor do I feel it is a good use of my time to produce evidence. I like to think that is common sense.

* The evidence you have showing that the 100 lbs he packed on his frame directly resulted in his poor performance.

I don't have this evidence, and there is a possibility that it may be because of some other reason, however it is highly probably that his weight gain is the reason.

You are presenting a hypothesis ('players performance drops after a big FA contract, and its because they're slacking off')

You are misinterpreting my hypothesis, I am suggesting that some players performance drops off after signing a big contract because of slacking off, regardless of whether they are free agents. Also, I should be more specific with my reason terminology, along with laziness, I should have included over-eating, substance abuse, etc. Anything that is self inflicted that is different from before they signed the contract.

These are persistent italics.

Very persistent.

Yikes, sorry for the italics mishap as well.

http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
I brought up Delgado simply because I think he's an example of someone who does work hard and did work hard in 2004, but simply didn't have his best year. That's just life in a highly competitive environment.

I think the press is quick to highlight players having career years in their walk years, partly because it's easy, and partly because it plays well with casual fans, the implication being "Oh look, he can smell the money, so he's trying."

Of course, if trying and hard work were the only variables involved, there wouldn't be much variance in anyone's performance from year to year.

I am referring specifically to Beltre, who I am guessing could have a drop off because of this reason.

You have some reason for thinking that Adrian Beltre is likely to take the money and get content and happy and lose his edge. You're saying you know something about him, specifically?

Tell us.

http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
See, clearly Italics is in his walk year and is trying extra hard. :)

Again, I am guessing. Mostly based on personality issues surrounding Beltre, signing illegally with the Dodgers, attitude, etc.

I believe that anyone who gains a lot of weight outside of trying to bulk up, is partially a result of being lazy.

With all due respect, thats a load of hooey. Even presuming the argument is restricted to the subset of humanity which plays baseball for a living, its still a load of hooey.

Any argument which starts off along the lines of "If someone is overweight, its their own fault..." belies a complete lack of understanding as to the way that human beings gain weight.

Magpie pointed things out much better than I could. Every case is different, and cannot be generalized so trivially.

Attemping to do so ranges from pointless to insulting.

And now if you'll excuse me, there's some fires I need to douse.

I don't think that every player that works hard in there contract year see's benefits. However, I'm sure there are players who 'get off track' through one reason or another, and then clamp down and work harder because they will become a free agent the following year and they don't want to miss their golden egg.

Whether they continue to work hard or 'get of track' again, is an unkown.

I guess what I am trying to say, is a players personality is a factor in projecting his performance. And the most unpredictable factor.

I think the most important thing about Beltre (well, besides not heading home for bothed appendectomies) is that he's finally starting to get a handle on the strike zone.

It was the same EUREKA!! that turned Sammy Sosa from a wonderful collection of tools into the monster he became.

I think the other thing that happened to him this year is he's started to grow up a little bit. He and his wife had their first child just before training camp started - that affects people.

Any argument which starts off along the lines of "If someone is overweight, its their own fault..." belies a complete lack of understanding as to the way that human beings gain weight.

That was not my argument, however I do believe that an established athlete, can prevent substantial weight gain. IMO - any established athlete that does not take these precautions is just being lazy.

I agree that Beltre could become a very good player for all of the reasons you have mentioned, he is deffinitely at a crossroads in his career and it's his choice what path he will take.

I wonder if I am the youngest person to post on here.

I'm going to try to find that study and link to it. That might clear up some of these issues.
I'm busy, so it probably won't be till later, but I'll see what I can find.

"#256889 Posted 11/01/2004 03:00 PM by Pete Warren:

I wonder if I am the youngest person to post on here."

- How old?

Me Caino 20.

The Mets are showing interest in free-agent shortstop Chris Woodward.
Woodward probably won't be offered any starting jobs during the offseason, but there should be several teams interested in him as a reserve. If he joins the Mets, he'd be a fine $1 pick as the backup to the injury-prone Jose Reyes.


From rotoworld.com via primer.

Can someone give me some insight as to why alot of people are touting Reed Johnson as a 4th outfielder, behind a gabe gross or franck catalanotto. I mean Reed gives his all in the field, making outstanding catches, is solid at the plate, and is one of toronto's best competitors.

http://ussmariner.com/index.php?p=2013#comments
To swerve things back in a hot stove direction, those fine folks at USSMariner are claiming that ATL and NYY are talking about a Brown/Lofton for Andruw Jones swap (COMN).

Peanut gallery, what sayeth you?

I think the other thing that happened to him this year is he's started to grow up a little bit. He and his wife had their first child just before training camp started - that affects people.

Beltre hits better with minimal sleep? :) I guess caffeine is not a restricted drug yet.

Some Baseball notes:

- The Mets are apparently interested in signing Chris Woodward, and are also close to signing Al Leiter to a one year deal.

- Gerry Hunsicker steps down as GM of the Astro's

- Wally Backman has been named manager of the Diamondbacks

- Boston is apparently offering Pedro a 2 year $25 million deal.

I mean Reed gives his all in the field, making outstanding catches, is solid at the plate, and is one of toronto's best competitors.

Reed Johnson isn't a very productive hitter, he the power an plate discipline needed to be an everyday player in the outfield.

Gerry Hunsicker steps down as GM of the Astro's

Wow, that's huge. I think Hunsicker is a pretty good GM that's been undervalued by the media/general public for a while.

he the power

that should say 'he lacks the....'

Caino, I'm 17 man. But with the amount of respect I get around here I might as well be 3 for god sakes.

Haha okay, just kidding with the second sentence.

But anyway, its hard not to get impatient waiting for a roster move from the Jays because there are so many tough decisions to be made. I would anticipate the Jays addressing the 1st base/DH/lack of offence of one year ago first, because if they wait too long, there might not be much left. However I do hope J.P. works his magic somehow and finds 1 or 2 rock solid lefties for our pen for a good price. I wonder what our bullpen ERA and opponent average was last year against lefties. Can anybody help me there?

One move I think might be seen this offseason is Ken Griffey Jr. going to the Yankees. It is quite apparent they need a center fielder, and I think this transaction just reeks of potential. Griffey, wants out of Cincy. Would want to go to a WS contender at the end of his career. Short porch at Yankee Stadium. Makes a crapload of money. And finally, they're the NY Yankees for cryin in the mud!!! If ARod goes to NY, then Ken Griffey Jr sure as hell could.

I'm 17 man. But with the amount of respect I get around here I might as well be 3 for god sakes.

Yes, it's no holds barred here :), don't be offended by anyones criticism.

As for Griffey, I don't think anyone, including the Yankee's is very high on him right now. I think he has to prove he can be healthy before getting any interest, and even then, Cincy will probably have to eat a lot of his salary.

Vernon's biggest fan

I feel for you man. Sparky is a good player and an excellent teammate but unless the guy can hit .300+ or have an OBP of .380-425, or have good power and rbi numbers, he won't be a starter for the Jays. However, look at the positives. He provides depth, excellent defence, great speed, good baserunning, great bunter, and in Mike Wilner's witty rhetoric, is a "human pin cushion". He also can fill in during injuries with not much of a drop off at all (if everyone else does their part.) So on any winning team, Reed "Sparky" Johnson, is an integral part. Maybe, one day, he will get a full starting spot.

I was wondering what the expected ceiling on Gross is? Is he going to be a 300 hitter down the road? If so when?

Good question, Caino

I think all GM's believe hoheartedly that the position players they draft in the 1st round, could hit at least .300. If only that always became true eh.

However, your question is a good one because you asked WHEN. With Gabe Gross's status for next year up in the air, we have to wonder when this guy will get his chance to have 500+ at bats and prove that he IS a .300 hitter.

I think the majors Gross is more like a .280-.290 hitter. He strikes out a bit too often compared to his power for me to confidently say he'll hit .300. But he does look like he'll be solid with a lot of walks and middling power, say 20 homeruns.

I'm 17 man. But with the amount of respect I get around here I might as well be 3 for god sakes.

I'm also 17 here. Born March of 1987. Can you beat that? ;)

Why would the Mets be interested in Woody? Don't they have Reyes and Little Matsui?

I could see the Yankees going after Griffey. I don't think Beltran will be in NY - remember in July, when Randy Johnson was a sure thing to be a Yankee? How did that turn out?

There are some interesting names on the 6 year minor league free-agent list:

Chris Mowday- very good year at age 23 in the FSL; would look good in a New Hampshire uniform next year if there's a shortage in the pen.
Chris Truby-interesting third base potential for a year or two; he's 30 and had a great year at triple A last year.
Kevin Witt- had a great year at 28 at triple A last year. Might help out in Syracuse.
Matt Whiteside-yes he's 37, but he had a nice year at triple A last year; I wouldn't mind having him around as bullpen insurance
Billy McMillon-Frank Menenchino, Lance Blankenship...you get the idea

I'm 16! December 11th 1987.. Greatest day in my life. ;)

Rob I'm afraid I have been defeated. I will turn 18 in 14 days.

Oh well, the young guns have something to offer this site I guess.

As for the Jays aquisitions, we have already heard plenty of rumours for this off season. I've made a list of some of these players and put a percentage next to their name that I believe is the % chance that they will be a Jay next season (feel free to do the same or add players that I have missed):

Barry Zito - 10%
Mark Texiera - 5%
Troy Glaus - 15%
Korey Koskie - 15%
Matt Clement - 5%
Troy Percival - 10%
Ryan Klesko - 10%
Jeff Burroughs - 15%
Carlos Delgado - 20%
Erubial Durazo - 20%

I would LOVE to see Clement with the Jays next year, he is a great young pitcher who I think would fit in very well. A rotation with Halladay, Clement, Lilly, and Batista (who should NOT be wasted in the bullpen) would put the Jays in contention IMO, altho I said that about the rotation coming into this season as well. I would also like to see the Jays finally pick up a decent closer, and Percival, Urbina and Benitez (who is much more than decent) are all available, altho I'm not sure JP wants to spend that kind of money on a closer (and frankly I see his point, but all of the blown late leads this year kinda got to me). As far as a free agent bat goes, I would obviously love to see Carlos come back for sentimental/historical reasons, but I have a feeling that he may not be willing to give the Jays enough of a discount to make it reasonable. Failing that, I think either Durazo or Glaus would do a good job replacing Carlos as a big bat in the middle of the order, and would save the Jays some money to improve elsewhere (maybe a good setup man?).

PS: I am aware that making all of the moves I suggested above is probably not financially feasible, but I would like to see at least a couple of them.

I don't think Beltran will be in NY - remember in July, when Randy Johnson was a sure thing to be a Yankee? How did that turn out?

Did you not hear Beltran plugging for a gig in NY? He was praising "Mr. Steinbrenner" for caring about winning, blah blah blah. It was pretty transparent athlete-ese for "give my agent a call -- I'd be happy to take a 9-figure contract from you."

One move I think might be seen this offseason is Ken Griffey Jr. going to the Yankees.

I can't see any team needing a CF being serious about pursuing someone who will give them maybe 80 games with, at this point in his career, some pretty mediocre defense. The Yankees are an aging team with limited room in sick bay. They need a healthy fly catcher who's going to give them 150 games. The only place I can envision Junior going is back to Seattle, to ride into the sunset as Edgar's replacement.

Maybe, one day, he will get a full starting spot.

Er, no. He'll be 28 next season. He won't be starting for anyone every again. The Johnson we have is almost certainly as good as he's going to get.

He hits LHP very well, can run a bit, play some defense, doesn't complain, loves puppies and old people. Sounds like a good 4th outfielder to me. Or, more specifically, a platoon outfielder. Actually, absent the huge platoon split, I'm not sure that he'd even warrant a 4th outfielder's job. A 320/380 season from a corner outfielder in his age-27 season doesn't scream out job security.

You need six years of service to be free-agent eligible. Very few players make it to the MLs to stay by age 21.

Not to nit pick Magpie, but if you started at age 22, your 6th year would be your age-27 year.

Most players have their career years at age 27 and 28 and starting your service clock at 22 or 23 is not that unusual. Thus, as many have already suggested, many players' walk year will be during their prime and their first post-FA year will be the start of their decline. Other cause-and-effect relationships, questioning character and integrity, are going to be presumed for the great walk year and lesser post-FA years.

Here's Washington's baseball card. Check out his position!

Shite. Wrong thread!

http://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article.jsp?content=20041101_192148_2856
The latest Delgado update from Marty (say what you want about York, but he is working this Delgado story hard, and for that I am grateful). COMN

http://msn.foxsports.com/story/3125540
The Reds balked at the Blue Jays' offer of third baseman Eric Hinske for right fielder Austin Kearns. Hinske, 27, is owed $12.9 million over the next three seasons, and his on-base/slugging percentage has declined from .846 to .766 to .678 in his three major-league seasons. Kearns, 24, could earn approximately as much in arbitration if he ever gets healthy, but is a safer bet for a solid career.

"I don't know what kind of player Hinske is, to be honest," a scout says. ...

This bit from Ken Rosenthal. COMN

say what you want about York

Well, I won't say anything...I'll just quote selected bits from the article:
several sources familiar with the situation.
Sources in the Blue Jays' front office
a Jays source said
Meanwhile, sources have told York
according to York's sources

Can anyone tell me this: do the players collect a royalty for merchandise (ie. jerserys) with their name or likeness on it? Or does it go all to the Jays team, or the Skydome group?

I know they do it (pretty handsome royalties) on wrestling stuff, but I'm not so sure about in baseball.

http://www.nypost.com/sports/31465.htm
New York Post columnist Joel Sherman

"Like how about Jon Lieber in Cleveland, Texas or Toronto? The Yanks foolishly might not pick up Lieber's option, feeling $8 million is too expensive. But Lieber has value, even as trade bait."

I think all GM's believe hoheartedly that ...

"hoheartedly"?! "hoheartedly"?! What the hell is that?

December 11th 1987

Wow. Someone who not only doesn't remember "The Choke", but wasn't even born! Yikes.

Okay, I looked at Prospectus, and I even checked my online database of journal articles at school, but I can't find the article about performance in a player's walk year. I could swear I read it once, but for now, I guess ignore that.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1913881
CNN is reporting that Wally Backman a retired Second baseman for the New York Mets has been hired as Arizona Manager.

Wait I see ESPN has the story also.
COMN for the story.

In case it hasn't been mentioned elsewhere, the NY Post has speculated in the last couple of days that some of Toronto's interest lies with the following players:

Zito
Clement
Percival
Lieber (if option denied by Yankees)
Koskie

And as someone mentioned above the Jays offered Hinske for Kearns but that was never going to happen. If there's any chance of getting Kearns and trading Hinske though, I'd be willing to add prospects to the deal. The Reds need pitching and the Jays have a few arms they might able to spare. Peterson? Banks? Marcum? Chacin?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1914293
Woo Hoo Doc is the top pitcher in MLB and Delgado is the top hitter in MLB

Call me crazy but does a Lilly for Kearns swap seem logical?

Lilly's coming off a good season with the all-star label beside his name. I believe he's a FA after next season. Everybody knows the Reds need pitching.

While Kearns has been injury prone in his short career I see him as a 25HR 100 RBI guy. He's got a strong and accurate arm. Plus the trade saves the Jays a few mil which could be used towards signing a pitcher like Lieber.

Woo Hoo Doc is the top pitcher in MLB

Wow, and that's after a BAD year.

Does this mean the Jays get compensation for Delgado if he leaves? Im just reading the article above and it says something about that at the bottom.

Does this mean the Jays get compensation for Delgado if he leaves? Im just reading the article above and it says something about that at the bottom.

No because the Jays won't offer him arbitration.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article.jsp?content=20041101_192148_2856
not sure if this has been posted yet but the Jays appear to be closer to signing delgado. Marty York put up a report saying that they are approaching a deal to keep Carlos in Toronto. Granted its marty york so take it for what its worth but COMN for more details.

One bright spot in 2005 would be to see Tom Cheek elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.


Here is the website address http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/library/frick_voting/index.asp

1. Tom Cheek


I think that this year every Blue Jay fan should vote for Tom Cheek in the Hall of Fame. He's been the voice of the Blue Jays for 27 years. His streak of over 4000 games without being absent is remarkable. He's broadcasted the two world Series championship games.

Touch em all Joe You'll Never Hit A Bigger Home Run in your life.

I encourage everyone to touch your keyboard and put Tom Cheek in the Hall of Fame.

Yes, please vote for Cheek. I'm biased, but I can't think of anyone in that category who deserves it more.

And with regards to those ESPN rankings, how the hell was Bonds not one of the top 3 NL outfielders last year? He won an MVP award that year, and had won one the year previous and was the best player in baseball both years, yet he wasn't one of the best 3 outfielders in the NL?

Well, I guess the faults of this system have already been described above.