What's with Godfrey getting involved in negotiations with Delgado? I don't know what that means. Is it unusual for something like that to happen? Is it encouraging? The context in which it was reported on the Fan this morning was a positive one.

Losing Delgado would BRUCE my ego. In fact, it would BURN my C*CK. Man, IF I HAD A ROCKET LAUNCHER, I'd make sure he was re-signed... :)

The Astros had a rocket, but the Cardinals had a rocket launcher. I wonder which team Bruce Cockburn cheered for.

Moffatt, you shouldn't have. And it's not even my birthday :-).

From the greedy capitalist running dog lackey perspective, the over-the-top ratings for the ALCS on Sportsnet provide evidence of an opportunity for the Jays. It does seem that, in the absence of hockey, a significant number of sports fans in Canada may indeed turn back to baseball at least temporarily. You can certainly argue that the time is right for a significant investment in the Jays from Rogers on this basis, in the hopes that fielding a competitive team in 05 is especially important.

Speaking of lackeys, I cannot figure out why Craig would want to acquire John Lackey when he could have this guy.

That's really strange that they don't track ratings for U.S. channels in Canada. It seems like a useful thing to know.

Especially for U.S. channels. I understand that adding in Canadians would never pass the rigorous audit screening of viewership figures that is required in the TV industry, but at least you'd think they would be interested.

Of course, we still allow some Canadian channels (but not others) to broadcast their ads over U.S. programming. The Canadian TV broadcasting business, outside of some of the cable industry, seems stuck around 1975.

What's with Godfrey getting involved in negotiations with Delgado? I don't know what that means. Is it unusual for something like that to happen?

It's actually not unusual for an owner, or an owner's direct representative like Godfrey, to get involved in signing a player, or even in making trades.

I don't necessarily mean like Steinbrenner, barking orders to his subordinates about whether to wipe front to back or back to front. John Henry became directly involved in the Red Sox attempt to sign Alex Rodriguez this past winter. Gary Sheffield and Steinbrenner negotiated his contract directly with each other - both bypassing the normal agent/GM intermediaries. In the old days, it used to be very common for owners and players to negotiate directly, especially for free agents.

In the case of Godfrey and Delgado, it may be that the team and Delgado are attempting to be as creative as possible in structuring the contract. Since Ricciardi would need to go to and above Godfrey for approval of any non-traditional arrangement anyway, it may be that they decided to talk directly at the outset.

It may also be that Ricciardi has alienated Delgado or his people somehow - but that is completely idle speculation. If so, I hope it's temporary!

If it were permissible under baseball's rules, which it is not, I would love to see an arrangement where Delgado signed a very long-term deal, guaranteeing he would retire in a Jays uniform, with a piece of the franchise as part of the price (say, on an option/incentive basis) and thereby guarantee that he remain a part of the team after his playing career is over.

The context in which it was reported on the Fan this morning was a positive one

Of course it is, all the other news is bad and they want to be able to say they were the first to say he was staying if he does... and if he doesn't they'll say, "We didn't SAY he was staying, we SAID they were talking"...

I'm tired of irresponsible reporting of rumours and conjecture.... Today on The FAN I heard that ESPN reported that Peter Gammons is calling for Bud Selig's resignation... remember fans, you heard it hear first!...

The FAN is terrific at live events, broadcasting the games, the pre and post games shows etc... etc... I TRULY ENJOY Tom and Jerry (everyone remembers that was a kids cartoon right?) Mike W. and a LOT of the insider stuff from the Dome...

and even about half of the insight that Howard and Chuck bring from the ACC (though far too much of their reports is actually just an informercial on how connected they are)

but the day to day stuff is totally lacking in any real reporting and is all just fluff reported over and over till it becomes fact... I've even heard FAN personalities quoting rumours started by OTHER FAN personalities!!!!...

Sorry for the rant...
I just wish there was a better option... will someone tell the morning crew that there is a National League please....

I'm tired of irresponsible reporting of rumours and conjecture.... Today on The FAN I heard that ESPN reported that Peter Gammons is calling for Bud Selig's resignation... remember fans, you heard it hear first!...
P.S that part was supposed to be facitious.

The real reason I came in today is to ask if anyone knows of a good up to date listing of Free Agents, ...

This site
http://kmbumb.people.wm.edu/05agency.html
is VERY good (and a god-send), but I don't think its day by day accurate.

I've even heard FAN personalities quoting rumours started by OTHER FAN personalities!!!!...

I once heard Pat Marsden quote a rumour started by HIMSELF!

Chunichi are about to take a 3-2 lead over Seibu in the Japan Series... they have a 6-1 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning.

The Bumbaco site is the best place to find a mostly accurate listing of free agents. I have a complete(?) list broken down by teams that I made from using that site, other various sites and doing some detective work (ie. looking at Dugout Dollars). I don't have it typed up but if you have any questions regarding free agents I can probably help. On that end, I have also figured out all (?) the players due for arbitration.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/mythbusters/
Larry Mahnken has done a fine review of the ALCS in The Hardball Times. COMN.

http://`
Chunichi won 6-1 to take that 3-2 lead over the Lions. It's been a very interesting Japan Series, and it should garner a fair amount of space in my wrapup of the Japanese season in the upcomnig Hardball Times book.

What's with Godfrey getting involved in negotiations with Delgado?

I believe I either read or heard something about Godfrey having a personal relationship with Delgado's agent -- that they are friends. Combine that with the fact that there could be some budget-stretching or even budget-busting parts of the contract and I think that it's a really good idea for Godfrey to be involved.

I think Godfrey getting involved is a good thing and not unusual. Pat Gillick in his time with the Jays stated many times that he hated the contract negotiations the most. He was a baseball guy. By the end of his time with the Jays he wasn't that involved in it. I remember a story about how Dave Winfield was signed. Gillick was on vacation when Winfield was non-tendered by Anaheim I think. The Jays DH situation had been pretty bad in 1991 so Beeston jumped in and signed him for something like $2M with little input from Gillick. I was surprised by this at the time. Also don't forget that Beeston was instrumental in bringing Clemens to Toronto.

On another topic. I didn't reallize that the Yankees' payroll the last time they won the WS was only $90M+ in 2000 (according to some graphic on TV last night). What was the Jays payroll in 2000? Was it already $75M?

What's with Godfrey getting involved in negotiations with Delgado? I don't know what that means. Is it unusual for something like that to happen? Is it encouraging? The context in which it was reported on the Fan this morning was a positive one.

Matt, with respect to your last remark, I don't think we should find that a surprise or read too much into it. There is no need for Delgado to burn any bridges, even if the likelihood of him returning is not high. With little else Jays' news to discuss at the moment, throwaway remarks from his agent are probably getting undue attention.

As for Godfrey's involvement, I don't think that's unusual at all. I think many teams involve the upper brass and even ownership when high end FA's are being pursued. I don't think it undermines Ricciardi (as long as Godfrey and Ricciardi are delivering the same message) and can only help as it makes it clear to Delgado that he is wanted.

When no one was looking, it looks like Dave Perkins went over to the sosh main page and helped himself to an article. "A-Fraud" is totally sosh.

I haven't seen the Perkins article but, sadly, can imagine it well enough in my head.

It's funny how some serious spin doctoring is going on, both in the media and on Usenet. ARod (320/414/600) is catching blame while Jeter (245/339/347) is Mr. Teflon. ARod's Kill Bill homage was classless and certainly lowers many people's opinions of him, but it doesn't detract from the fact that he played very well in the post-season, even if not so well in the latter 3 games.

The FAN is terrific at live events, broadcasting the games

Yeah, fabulous... when they choose to do it. Other times we get Bob McBlowhard instead of the 5th game of the ALCS.

WOW! This is quite the thread.

I just have to add my two cents on the ESPN matter.

I was a LONG time ESPN poster and there from the beginning of the board (my first post was #189, 6 years ago), and I made approximately 20,000 posts on ESPN and well aware of the posts and people there. Since the format change, the lack of activity, and the somewhat less intelligent conversation I've stopped posting there.

That being said the posters at ESPN were a special breed and a fun group of guys. We were all involved in a two team 32 player roto league this year, which was a lot of fun. People that were on the outside of the core group of posters sometimes often didn't understand the humour on the boards. We didn't take each other very seriously and often took jabs at each other, but it was only meant to be in fun. In fact anyone that knows me, knows there was a fantastic practical joke done to me which led everyone to believe that I 'came out of the closet'. To this day people still joke about my sexuality and I still don't get offended. BTW - I'm not gay...not that there is anything wrong with that.

Now if we ever thought that someone was offended by our sense of humour we would back off and let them know we weren't serious. Often those same people that were first offended, would soon 'get it' and join in.

I don't remember any such conversations that NFH was referring to, however if true, I think there definitely was a line crossed. I do remember the comments about the name 'Cheer Club', and do know the posters at ESPN were making fun of the name, and the mental imagery of what this name brought. If anyone was offended, I am very sorry, that was certainly not my goal. BTW - I definitely like Beer Club better.

Also if anyone has any personal issues with myself or something I said, please let me know, you can contact me at peterd@minit.ca. I don't think that anyone that knows me would have a bad thing to say about me, so I'd hate to start off here on the wrong foot.

For those who follow the AFL I think that Arnold actually pitched the game on the 19th but it was credited to Gabbard (Arnold's name appears in the batting order but not in the pitching line as someone mentioned in a previous thread). Gabbard started again on the 20th so that would make sense. Also Gabbard's record in the boxscore is listed as 0-1 but in the stats as 1-1. Anyways it was a good start I think by Arnold but I can't find the boxscore in BA from the 19th to confirm.

Just to clarify, when I said "This is quite the thread." I was referring to yesterdays Jays Round-up.

As for Godfrey negotiating Delgado's deal, I think this is a very positive sign. If true, it would go a long way towards reducing my fears that the Jays will have the worst offense in baseball next season.

It does seem that, in the absence of hockey, a significant number of sports fans in Canada may indeed turn back to baseball at least temporarily.

I see that there were 30K at the Argo game last night. Is there an actual "buzz" around the team in Toronto? If the Argos and Ticats can come back the way they seem to have this year, I don't see any reason the Jays can't do something similar.

The Argo's have had a resurgence this year, however I fear that has had more to do with the Jays lack of success rather than the hockey strike.

It is good to see that more people are watching baseball, it is a fantastic sport. I really think now is the time for the Jays to take advantage of the situation, they could certainly win a lot of fans over next year if they have a quality product. That being said, I think they would come back to see a winner regardless of a hockey strike, but not at the same level that we saw in the early 90's.

The Argo's have had a resurgence this year, however I fear that has had more to do with the Jays lack of success rather than the hockey strike.

The CFL in general has a lot of momentum right now, which helps a lot.

I see that there were 30K at the Argo game last night. Is there an actual "buzz" around the team in Toronto? If the Argos and Ticats can come back the way they seem to have this year, I don't see any reason the Jays can't do something similar.

Absolutely, there's a buzz. I don't know how much of it has to do with the new owners, who seem to be a lot of fun and are very active in trying to get things done for the team. Look at how quickly they put together another stadium deal when the first one fell through! I think we were all expecting at least a two month period of hand-wringing and blame placing, but it was more like "Well, that's too bad. Okay, here's the next idea!"

Plus, who doesn't want to see Pinball do well? I have fond memories of him as a player running up to the stands in between halves and signing everything that anyone passed to him, and chatting with us.

It would be great if the Jays could take advantage of the NHL lockout to drive up the visibility of the team. Maybe they should try to hire the guys doing the Argo ads? The radio ones are cheap and hilarious.

I'm picturing in my head an ad campaign around Delgado (if he signs) with Delgado singing the praises of the rookies and telling us all what we have to look forward to.

I guess you could say there are many factors leading to the Argo's success:

1. A better team
2. Pinball as the coach
3. The Jays lack of success
4. The new stadium talks - shows a commitment to the team
5. The NHL strike
6. A more competitive league
7. Good signings - Damon Allen, Andre 'Bad Moon' Rison, etc.

The CFL has alway been very strong in Western Canada, but the turnaround of the league is mostly due to Montreal and now Toronto's recent success.

I thought Delgado was gone for sure when he was in none of the 2004 marketing.

I've got the Delgadoisgone-O-meter at 50-50 right now, which is a big improvement from the 90-10 of a couple weeks ago.

I'm not around a radio today. Is there any new news on the Delgado front? Great news reported last night!! My theory about Godfrey becoming involved in the negotiations is because having Carlos back, a for Carlos coming back, it will not just be about money. It'll be about his 16 (?) years in the jays organization, what the future holds, and what his legacy will be. It's better for a team President to work on those issues, because it relates to off field issues.

I am also hoping that Delgado money will be excluded from the $53 Million said to be the budget for the team.

The Argo's have had a resurgence this year

I'm hoping a study comes out that directly links the Argos success to their new turf.

I am also hoping that Delgado money will be excluded from the $53 Million said to be the budget for the team.

I'm also hoping that the Jays give me a call to see if I'm interested in becoming an assistant general manager.

Delgado at one point said something like 'I've made all the money I'll ever need' leading us to believe his next contract will have nothing to do with money.

When no one was looking, it looks like Dave Perkins went over to the sosh main page and helped himself to an article. "A-Fraud" is totally sosh. There's also a good post there on how they've spent themselves into a mess.

Are you really Jimmy Key's Christmas lights?

Or are you just Jimmy Key prentending to be your Christmas lights?

My hope is that if Godfrey and Rogers decide to kick in extra money above what JP and the organization think they can allocate to bring Delgado back, that their agreement is that the extra money wouldn't be taken from JP's budget.

I hope that makes sense.

I think the Jays budget is $50 million, the talk of increasing the budget is all about what it will take to keep Delgado.

I'd also take this moment to gloat about my prediction after game 5 of the NLCS where I said the Cardinals would come back to win this series.

Also, I'd like to give props to Mike Wilner who said on the radio after game 3 of the ALCS that the Red Sox still could come back and win the series. At the time I laughed and thought, 'this guy just won't give up on his prediction that the Sox will win the WS'. In either case - Nice work Mike.

I went to the Argos game last night, and I can tell you that any resurgence has nothing to do with their in-game marketing. While football lends itself to music clips moreso than baseball, it's just a deafeningly loud as at Jays games, the contests are just as lame, and the in-game host is worse. A LOT worse. Hard to believe, but true. The Argos are also fond of hazing up the place with fireworks, and being as it was football I disagree with their decision to have the roof closed last night. Football is meant to be played in unpleasant weather.

The halftime mascot football was embarassingly poorly organized, but amusing... particularly the guy with the very large head and blue hair whose pants kept falling down. Ace (the Jay mascot) scored the final touchdown. He was decidedly more athletic and less goofy than most of the mascots. The crowd was 30K and reasonably into it, but I wouldn't say the atmosphere was much different than a Jays game with that many people. What the Dome needs, to make it a good venue, is good-sized crowds. That's it. Even having the roof closed doesn't kill it if the crowd is big enough. The turf looked good, though a little strange in that it's not wall-to-wall.

The halftime mascot football was embarassingly poorly organized, but amusing... particularly the guy with the very large head and blue hair whose pants kept falling down. Ace (the Jay mascot) scored the final touchdown. He was decidedly more athletic and less goofy than most of the mascots.

You are correct, Jonny, Ace was definitely the pick of the litter in that game last night. That open field move he put on Bruiser, the Hamilton Bulldog to spring himself for the final touchdown, was a sight to behold. But props also to Carlton the Bear, who threw a nice tight spiral the whole game.

I think the real lesson is, if must have in-game promotions, the crowd really enjoys watching a woman to struggle to keep her pants up. I'm sure that poor lady was very pleased that they kept showing her underwear on the jumbotron.

I've never understood why people prefer to have the roof open in bad weather? It could be that I'm just a suck, but if I feel a cool breeze at a Jays game, I'm bitching to close the roof. I love that Toronto plays in a domed stadium, Toronto in the fall or spring, is not the climate I want watch sporting events outside.

Everyone in Toronto complained during the exhibition stadium days that Toronto needs a dome. Now that they have a dome, they want to go back outside. I for one, don't miss April Blue Jay games in Exhibition Stadium.

Who is everyone rooting for in the Cardinals-Bosox series? In 67, I rooted for the Bosox, but now, well, I can't.

For those who'd like to revisit the 67 series, retrosheet has boxes and play-by-play. At the time, I didn't appreciate the significance of Lonborg pitching in Game 7 on 2 days rest. I had also forgotten that Steve Carlton had pitched very well for the Cards in the Series.

I think the Jays budget is $50 million, the talk of increasing the budget is all about what it will take to keep Delgado.

If that's the case, though, then it's still added to the budget, because the Jays' biggest offseason need - an elite power hitter - gets taken care of outside the budget.

The budget was originally scheduled to be slashed to $48 million, but talk now is that it will be higher - I've heard rumblings of $53 or even $55 million. And now a possible discretionary budget to keep Delgado is in the mix as well.

For those who'd like to revisit the 67 series

Or visit, as the case may be.....

I was actually looking at it yesterday when a co-worker said he was still bitter about 1967.

Bob Gibson pitched all 9 innings in games 1, 4, and 7, getting the win in all 3 games. He also hit a HR in game 7.

At first I thought the HR was odd seeing that the game was in Fenway, but then I realized that was prior to the DH.

What I mean is, there is room to sign Delgado for $7 million/year withing a $50 million budget. Whatever above this number it takes to keep him, the Jays will extend the budget. i.e. if Delgado will sign for $9 million/year, the Jays will expand the budget to $52 million.

This is just a hunch, however the fact that Godfrey is involved and the conflicting reports on the final budget number lead me to this speculation.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/columnists/askba.html
Jim Callis' recent column in BA has a nice discussion, with a quote from Theo Epstein, on tools vs. performance in the evaluation of prospects. COMN.

Who is everyone rooting for in the Cardinals-Bosox series?

I'm not sure yet. I think it'll be one of those series where I don't know until I watch the game and find myself pulling for one side. It'll probably be the Sox, but I'm not sure I want to see the tortured story end yet.

Should be a good matchup and fun series though.

Jim Callis' recent column in BA has a nice discussion, with a quote from Theo Epstein

The quote that was pulled from the SOSH chat was prior to spring training in 2003.

Why don't they track US viewership? Simple answer in that viewership numbers are gathered to set rate cards for commerials. In that context, the US viewership numbers are irrelevant to the Canadian broadcaster.

"Of course, we still allow some Canadian channels (but not others) to broadcast their ads over U.S. programming. The Canadian TV broadcasting business, outside of some of the cable industry, seems stuck around 1975."

Craig, the first sentence confused me - could you clarify?

The second sentence is bang on, however, much of that blame should be attributed to the egg heads at the CRTC.

I don't remember this, but why did Delgado sign for only 4 years back in 2000 when other players were getting up to 10 years?

Does anybody know if Delgado was awarded a WS ring in 1993?

We've had plenty of talk as to WHERE King Carlos will sign his next contract but let's speculate on WHEN it will happen. Will the Jays get something done quickly? Will a new suitor lure him away shortly after the World Series? Or will it take Santa Claus to find Carlos a home?

I won't be awarding prizes for correct guesses. This isn't a flashy Jobu-style contest. However, you will have the respect of your peers for your uncanny abilities.

I predict, because I am still young enough to be unrealistically optimistic, that Carlos will sign a deal two days after the Series ends.

200 million points to Kieran for identifying "If I had a Rocket Launcher" by Bruce Cockburn.

You also win a picture of this lovely clan crest:



and a picture of a sea creature of some sort. How about a beluga whale?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3578
The BP Internet awards are up for the AL. COMN

Which one of you pranksters gave Tosca a first place vote for AL Manager of the Year?

Craig, the first sentence confused me - could you clarify?

Blue, it's known as "simulcasting", and it gives Canadian TV stations - but not cable channels - the right to force Canadian cable companies to carry their signal (and their ads) instead of a station originating in the U.S., where the two are carrying the same program.

As a result, private broadcasters in Canada produce almost nothing themselves; they merely simulcast U.S. television. It's the ultimate parasitic industry.

Let's shut off those italics!

Which one of you pranksters gave Tosca a first place vote for AL Manager of the Year?

Probably the same guy who gaev Frank Menechino a first-place MVP vote!

Ten bucks says it was Jobu.

I am DISGUSTED by your accusations....

Surly you would know by now that if it was me it would have been for Sparky....duh.

My question is who put in a Cy Young ballot of David Bush, Vinny Chulk and Jason Frasor.

And don't call me Shirly.

The BP Internet awards are up for the AL. COMN

Which one of you pranksters gave Tosca a first place vote for AL Manager of the Year?

Maybe it's just me, and perhaps I take the IBA too seriously, but I *hate* when people submit joke ballots. While it doesn't impact the overall results, it cheapens the awards which I hold above the baseball writers voting.

Looking through the voting there was definitely someone going out of their way to vote for Blue Jays (although certainly not the only one).

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2004/columns/story?columnist=klapisch_bob&id=1907019
Just read an article by Klapisch on ESPN (COMN), where he states Vasquez and Brown are as good as gone. Javier is owed about $35M, not sure over how many more years, but he would look pretty good following Doc in the lineup. The article states that the Yanks might even take on significant salary.

The HRs are concerning, but he was fantastic in Montreal. Maybe he just needs to return to some good ole Canadian cooking and to get out of the spotlight of the Big Apple.

If the Yanks absorb significant salary, should JP take a run at him? And what could he offer the Yanks?

For my 2 cents, the Yanks need a lefty - and Chacin has some perceived value right now. So... the Yanks replace Vasquez with Chacin, absorb salary but get a league minimum salary in return - almost a net zero transaction from a monetary perspective. I realize that's not enough, but it may be a starting point.

Vazquez to Texas for Chan Ho Park. :)

The BP Internet awards are up for the AL. COMN

I was about to mention the Menechino, Chulk, and Frasor votes. Also of note: how did Justin Speier also get Cy Young support.

And the biggest question: is it safe to say that the same individuals are responsible for Michael Nakamura showing up in the ROY voting results? Yikes.

If the Yanks absorb significant salary, should JP take a run at him? And what could he offer the Yanks?

Well, if you get Vazquez there's almost no shot at re-signing Delgado. I can't imagine 'significant' is more than half.

This is what I love about the Yankees. Buy high, sell low.

The budget, Delgado, and impact of no hockey in 04/05 and maybe 05/06 are all interelated I think.

Sportsnet and all channels with some hockey influence (TSN, The Score, and CBC) are getting hit hard this winter. The Score doesn't show NHL hockey, but I'm sure their ratings are up a lot during hockey season. Similar with the sports newscasts and talk shows on TSN and RSN. This winter could be expensive and fans will be desperate for a sport they can cheer. Thus the CFL getting higher ratings and attendance, we'll probably see more attendance at OHL and other minor hockey leagues, and if the Jays are smart they'll be chasing that crowd too. For the moment keeping Delgado would be a good move, but come January/February when hockey is officially cancelled for the season (I'd be surprised with any other outcome at the moment) the Jays get a big window of opportunity. Sportsnet, TSN, CBC will all be looking for sports content for April/May/June and the Jays are it in Canada (unless the Raptors take off, which is doubtful) until the CFL comes back in mid-summer.

So, if you were running the Jays and debating a budget how would you handle it? I think the idea of adding $3-5 million now to get Delgado on the dotted line is a good idea. In the new year, if things don't change, there will probably be a lot of decent free agents available (teams cutting all the time) at good prices. Give JP an extra $10 million to blow on a name or two and tell him we need a hot start and see who he gets.

Who might be available, and for what slots? Open areas are one outfield slot (LF - Gross/Johnson/Cat is the current, RF - Rios was decent but nothing special last year, mix the 4 together in one spot and get a good FA for the other?), third base or shortstop (Adams is unproven, Hinske slumping), catcher (a rookie and a guy no one wanted last winter), DH (Cat), and the mandatory extra pitching wherever you can get it. Outfielders? Magglio Ordonez could be looking a big cut in pay and become one of the forgotten players (too greedy early, pays price later ala Fernandez in 93/94) in late winter, Jermaine Dye is likely available but uninteresting imo, but there aren't many OF out there who catch my eye as potentially forgotten. 3B/SS? Troy Glaus or Adrian Beltre would be sweet but ain't happening, Corey Koskie would be nice to bring back to Canada and could slip through with the two big names out there, or we could get Tony Batista (hehe). SS is pretty weak but has names (Orlando Cabrera for example) that will suck up some dollars. CA? Jason Varitek is the only one that caught my eye and he is staying in Boston or is too expensive to consider I suspect.

Pitching is all over the place and I'll leave that for another time to look at.

In the end, I suspect we'll see $55 million and Delgado pre-Christmas and maybe $60-65 million in the New Year if Rogers decides to take advantage of a hockey meltdown. Btw, we should all hope the players win in the end with hockey (ie: no hard cap) otherwise we could see baseball go the same route when the current deal expires (hockey has the second strongest players union after baseball imo). Ugh, what a horrible thought, as if '94 wasn't bad enough.

Maybe it's just me, and perhaps I take the IBA too seriously, but I *hate* when people submit joke ballots. While it doesn't impact the overall results, it cheapens the awards which I hold above the baseball writers voting.

The proportion of joke ballots among IBA voters is just about identical to that among BBWAA voters. I'd say it was much better among the IBA voters, but that's a touch uncharitable to the BBWAA. Still, guys like Shannon Stewart and David Ortiz (2003 versions) get nowhere near the level of support in the IBA that they do in the BBWAA voting.

I think if the Jays are going to make a big splash... it is going to be through a trade. The lower tier market (at least until players are non-tendered) is pretty unspectacular. And most of the mid-to-upper free agents will be out of the Jays price range. Koskie might be an interesting alternative but creates a huge problem with Hinske.... unless the Jays can flip him for someone like B-H Kim in Boston or Darrell May/Brian Anderson in Kansas City.
A couple interesting non-tenders will likely be John Garland, Shawn Chacon, Vincente Padilla, Ramon Ortiz, Gil Meche (not as likely to be non-tendered) or Mike Maroth

I may be in the minority here but i'd love for the Jays to take a chance on Jose Guillen.. He may have tantrums from time to time but the kid is a 5 tool player and exactly what Toronto needs, no matter if they resign Delgado or not.

Actually Jose Guillen is a four tool player (he doesn't steal bases) and he has played eight seasons and six teams have tired of his act. I don't really think the Jays need to take on a headcase. The last thing Jays' baseball needs is more excuses for negative press.

The proportion of joke ballots among IBA voters is just about identical to that among BBWAA voters. I'd say it was much better among the IBA voters, but that's a touch uncharitable to the BBWAA. Still, guys like Shannon Stewart and David Ortiz (2003 versions) get nowhere near the level of support in the IBA that they do in the BBWAA voting.

It depends on how you define a joke.

Most thought that Shannon Stewart for MVP was rediculous, but someone(s) really believed that and argued that. I may strongly disagree with the vote, but it was a serious vote nonetheless.

I don't think there's anyway around that Menechino for MVP or Dave Bush for Cy Young, for example, was anything but a joke.

The solution would probably be to thin out the ballot choices, but I suppose it wouldn't help all that much.

Before the season I thought that Yazquez in pinstripes would win close to 25 games, didn't quite happen but he stil lead the team in wins I think. If he comes back to his old self in toronto we could have one of the best 1-2 punch in the majors. But I wouldn't trade Vazquez if I am the Yanks since I think he will be a stud again and the team in short in pitching but stranger things happened and George probably needs to take some pressure out so he won't explode and trade Vazquez. The only fit I see with the Jays is "our" gold-glove-caliber second baseman. With Hill and Adams O-Dog could become replacebal in a few years. His departure would create a huge hole though. Second is one of the few positions ( CF;RF) were the Jays don't need to fix anything. Hill is at least half a year away ( I guess he'll be a september callup) and we only have Menecino, Gomez or Sequea to play second. To get sth. good you need to give sth. good so if the Yanks would pay most of Vazquez salary and trade with Toronto ( maybe they think that the Jays are no threat to them and therefore they can trade a potentially great pitcher to a division rival) I would do the trade in a heartbeat maybe even include one/ two prospects ( Chacin for example . Since the Yanks would have Hudson, the Jays could maybe sign Cairo to a 1-year deal to fill the void a little bit. Vaquez in Toronto would be great but it won't happen I am afraid.

Most thought that Shannon Stewart for MVP was rediculous, but someone(s) really believed that and argued that. I may strongly disagree with the vote, but it was a serious vote nonetheless.

No, I don't agree. I'm sure that someone out there, or a few people, probably genuinely believed that Stew was the MVP. But I do not believe, not for a single second, that ANY person with the baseball experience of a BBWAA writer believed that Stew was really the AL MVP in 2003. Those votes may have been a protest, a complaint, what have you, they may have been to "send a message" (about God knows what), but they were not honest, and most certainly not serious.

I would do that trade too without thinking about but I doubt the Yankees would pay most of Vazquez's salary and they're probably not interested in trading him at all. They need more starting pitching, not less. And Vazquez's $10 million to them is like $3 million to the Jays. In their salary scale he's not that expensive and they aren't going to be motivated to move him just for monetary reasons.

That short porch gives him no margin for error and he really seems prone to giving up the longball to lefties. The Damon grandslam barely got out near the 314 sign but the second one was a blast in any stadium. He's always given up homeruns at a slightly higher than normal rate but this year the rate soared to fairly bad with the Yankees.

Well if Suzuki can win the MVP, why not Stewart? As leadoff hitters in most years of their career they aren't that far apart. What Shannon lacks of course is the rifle outfield arm and basestealing ability, two things which really pushed Suzuki over the top because it's exciting to watch those plays.

Now I don't think Shannon was even close to the MVP last year but I can see how he might garner some votes from the Ichiro thinking half of the writers.

I would like to see Vazquez in a Jays uniform, however, if the Jays were reluctant to pony up similar cash for local hero Delgado, I doubt they would do it for Vazquez. Unless of course the Yankees took a Hinske and Ligtenberg or Batista contract off the Jays' hands. Of course, then how do you justify not signing King Carlos? Could the Jays afford two roughly $10 million players plus Halladay's contract? That doesn't leave an awful lot of wiggle room for the rest of the roster.

I don't really think the Jays need to take on a headcase. The last thing Jays' baseball needs is more excuses for negative press.

The Jays do need production and they need it cheap. I'd rather deal with the negative press of having a headcase around than the negative press of struggling to get by the Orioles and Devil Rays.

Not saying I want Guillen specifically, but I don't feel the Blue Jays are an organization that can afford to discriminate on productive players just because they might cause a little distraction now and then.

They had a clubhouse full of good citizens this year. In spring training people were talking about how this was the best atmosphere they had been around in a long time. What good was any of that based on where the team finished? If having an Escobar or a Guillen among my proper citizens means a better team on the field then that's a trade off I can live with.

Perhaps more importantly, it's something the Jays HAVE to do to compete. Get production from players other teams might shy away from for WHATEVER reason. Be that not looking like an athlete, taking numbers out of context, recovery from injury, or an attitude problem. Their goal should be not just following the doctrines of onbase % and strike throwing pitchers (because everyone can do that now) but maximizing production for the dollar.

Well if Suzuki can win the MVP, why not Stewart?

Because there was absolutely no way for anyone with a pulse and two eyes to conclude that Shannon Stewart was one of the, say, 100 best players in baseball *in 2003*. Stewart wasn't one of the five best players on his team. Yes, people said differently... about how Stewart was the straw the stirred the drink, or some other such BS. But they didn't believe it, they *couldn't* have believed it.

Ichiro performed extremely well when he won his MVP in 2001. He may have been one of the ten best players in the AL, and he was easily one of the 30 or 40 best players in baseball in that year. I'd say he was better. He was also the best player (I'd argue; certainly one of the best two) on one of the best teams in the history of baseball.

If you look at (say) the Win Shares analysis for 2001, there were four players head and shoulders in front of the AL pack, all with 36 or 37 WS. Ichiro, Giambi, Alomar, and A-Rod. That Ichiro won is surprising - he didn't have the supporting credentials of the others - but then and now I see him as a credible candidate.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits3?statsId=5947&type=pitching
COMN for Vazquez's 3 year splits. He has always been more successful at home (and pitched very little in Hiram-Bithorn when it was an extreme hitter's park). His 3 year road ERA in the mid-4s is probably a reasonable expectation for him next year. How much is 200 innings with an ERA in the mid 4s worth? To the Jays, maybe it's worth 2.5-3 million for one year.

Vazquez actually had a much better record at home in Yankee Stadium than on the road this year, and surrender more homers per AB on the road.

On a totally unrelated topic:

I go by the name Jays1fan1 mostly because that's the name ESPN picked for me and I everyone came to affectionately know me as. Now that I'm posting here I tried to change the name (to Perr Deco) but kept went back to Jays1fan1 just so that those that did know me would recogize who they were talking to. Therefore to make a long story longer, in the future, what name do you think I should post under:

1) Jays1fan1
2) Perr Deco
3) Peter DeMarco
4) Peter D
5) Other
6) You don't care and can't believe I wasted your time

Thats why JP or someone higher needs to talk to crazy old George directly. I could definately see him doing something rash.

Craig, I think you're overestimating people, and maybe forgetting some MVP/Cy Young historical votes. Some baseball writers overemphasize the importance of "intangibles" and "contributions to a winning team". Some writers are quite convinced by the "apres de, enfin a cause de" reasoning, and genuinely believed that the Twins' ascent last year was caused by Stewart.

Remember the Steve Stone/Bob Welch Cy Young votes based on won-loss records. Remember the Hank Sauer MVP vote. Bearing in mind that there have been some very dubious winners, is it not possible or even likely that some writers might genuinely believe that a marginally less qualified candidate should win.

I think that there's a world of difference between a Shannon Stewart MVP vote and a Menenchino MVP vote. One is horribly misguided but an honest attempt; the other is a joke.

7) It doesn't matter. It's personal preference.

I think that there's a world of difference between a Shannon Stewart MVP vote and a Menenchino MVP vote. One is horribly misguided but an honest attempt; the other is a joke.

Absolutely. Many of those who voted for Stewart in 2003 are the very same people who write lengthy articles detailing how it is a award for the most valuable player and then give a couple of anecdoted about the player's ability to "spark" an offense and knowing how to win and perseverance and all that jazz. For them, the MVP isn't a best player award and their intentions are 100% serious.

Gosh. Excuse my Friday HTML.

6

RBillie,

I understand your argument but don't really agree. Baseball, unlike say Hockey, lends itself to more ability to accept head cases, but I think as a GM you want to look at more than a guys stats.

Why do teams often look at a long road trip or bench clearer as when a team comes together? Why do some pitchers pitch better to some catchers? Why do some players play hard all the time and others not?

Its more than stats. I don't know what Guillen has done but as a headcase you need to factor in the real negative effect he is going to have on the team and the fans. A lot of headcases don't play hard and sulk. If you are playing hard but your teammate is not, then you are going to be bothered and distracted.

If his stats outweight this then add him, otherwise let someone else make a mistake.

I think number 6 is too long.

For AFL followers, the Saguaros did not play yesterday.

Why do some pitchers pitch better to some catchers?

Didn't prospectus look at this and conclude that it wasn't really true?

For any interested, Spicol posted a link to the GREATEST WEBSITE EVER in the ejection pool thread.

Jays1fan1, I suggest finding an anagram server and mixing up your name to see what you get. Matt E really should be posting as Mel Meatwhistle.

I think Peter should choose option 6. Or maybe option J.

For them, the MVP isn't a best player award and their intentions are 100% serious.

No, they are not. Everyone knows what "valuable" means in the MVP context. When you see someone kicking out about how meaningless is, they are just looking for excuses not to vote for certain players - like A-Rod, every year.

That's not being serious. I maintain that it's being completely disingenuous, an utter failure to take the procedure seriously, and no different at all from voting for Frank Menechino. Not at all.

Or maybe option J.

I'm confused? explain.

Some anagrams of "Peter DeMarco" for Jays1fan1 to choose from if he wishes...

ROD MEATCREPE
DR. MARCO TEPEE
CREMATE PEDRO
TAMPERED CORE
CREME ADOPTER
MR. REDCOAT PEE
TAMPERER CODE
MOPED TERRACE
MORE CARPETED
MR. DEEPER TACO

Matt E really should be posting as Mel Meatwhistle.

Unfortunately none of us are going to live long enough to see it happen.

Mr. Deeper Taco is pretty good. I'll mull this over during the weekend.

Thanks.

Craig, if you're saying that these voters aren't taking their responsibility seriously, I'd agree with that. But if you're intimating that Jason Stark wasn't honestly convinced that Shannon Stewart was the missing piece to the 2003 Twins and therefore Most Valuable in the AL that year, I'd disagree.

Rod Meatcrepe and Dr. Marco Tepee are both fantastic!

I'll admit it, I'm a sucker for anagram names that sound like real names but have the word "meat" in them.

You know you could be the DORSAL ANNOYER, right?

That's someone who would ANNOY OLD REARS.

BA has breaking news (no specific story yet). Tigers have signed #2 overall pick Justin Verlander.

That's pretty good, too. I'm trying to picture how to annoy someone dorsally.

if you're intimating that Jason Stark wasn't honestly convinced that Shannon Stewart was the missing piece to the 2003 Twins and therefore Most Valuable in the AL that year, I'd disagree

That's exactly what I'm intimating. I think we'll have to agree to disagree. I'm saying that people like Jayson Stark may take public positions to try to rile people up and to feed their own egos, which they do not actually believe in private.

Speaking of which, where are all of Tony Womack's MVP votes?

One fun anagram of my full name is Angary Thorn: Elf Foe

people like Jayson Stark may take public positions to try to rile people up and to feed their own egos

Oh, I do think this happens too, but I also believe that some of the BBWAA are, well, dumb. Too stupid to not believe in fairy dust.

GEOFF NORTH - anagrams

THONG OFFER
HOT FERN FOG
EFT FOGHORN
RENT OFF HOG
THEN, OF FROG

Everyone knows what "valuable" means in the MVP context.

Whoa Craig, this is almost the opposite of what I think goes on. Seems that the controversy comes from people not knowing what valuable means, or in it not being well defined. That's the whole issue with great players on bad teams, isn't it?

the controversy comes from people not knowing what valuable means, or in it not being well defined

I'm not saying there isn't a fair amount of ambiguity in it. I'm saying that the embiguity doesn't extend to Shannon Stewart or Frank Menechino, and everybody knows it.

Saying "it's ambiguous, so it's meaningless, and so I can vote for whatever passing fancy takes me" is not honest and those writers know it. They are well aware of the history of the MVP award, and the collective meaning that it has gathered over the years.

Craig can you post that link to that anagram site again.

Thanks Jeff

Anagrams of Michael Green are much more interesting than poor Mike Green's:

I CHING, REAL ME
MEAL CHEERING
RACE LEIGH, MEN
CLEAN GRIME, EH
RICH MALE GENE
RAIL MECH GENE
MANIC GLEE HER (apologies to PJ Harvey)
MAE LECHER GIN
ME, HELEN, CIGAR
HENCE, I'M REGAL

Some Delgado talk on the FAN right now.

I don't know who's on here (it's the Primetime Round Table), and somebody thinks Sloane's phone is not ringing off the hook because nobody wants all this money for Carlos. So he's sucking up to the Jays. I doubt that.

Bob McBlowhard said if Godfrey can handle the Delgado signing and keep him in a Jays uniform, they can fire J.P., who would be redundant.
Now, I know he's joking, but how many people listening don't?

My two cents on a few topics...

Brown/Vazquez

Both Kevin Brown and Javier Vazquez have had good runs prior to arriving in New York. Brown's chronic injuries seemed to be at the root of his problems this year. I'm not sure what happened to Vazquez. A bout of gopheritis maybe. For the Yankees to unload one or both of these two and greatly subsidize the receiving teams would be emotional decisions at this point. I can't see either leaving. The Yankees need to add pitching, not lose it. Both pitchers had 2.5 K/BB ratios this year, a sign that they're not accidentally roadkill.

Jose Guillen

Winning can make teams and fans tolerate a lot of nonsense. Jorge (don't call me George) Bell was no model citizen ("kiss my purple butt") but his act was tolerated because he performed. If 2004 represents Guillen's true ability (less than 2003 but much better than all years prior to 2003), I'd say there's plenty of room for him in LF to at least serve as a placeholder for a year.

Shannon Stewart

To me, Stewart's arrival in 2004 was a higher quality version of Mookie Wilson's arrival in Toronto in 1989. A good team that should have been winning all along finally started winning upon their arrivals. In a desperate attempt to identify cause-and-effect relationships, the media gave these two a ridiculously disproportionate share of the credit for their teams' winning ways. Whether Jayson Stark truly believed Stewart was last year's MVP or whether he was just trying to place himself in the spotlight is irrelevant to me -- his pick of Stewart is a sign that he is unworthy to vote for MVP. It was an absolutely idiotic pick.

accidentally=exactly

Must proofread. Must proofread. Must proofread.

OK, I resisted the anagram server for some time now - but it is Friday and close to drinki...err...quitting time. So I put my real name, as opposed to my pseudonym in to the server and I got a doozy.

Meet NOAH ARK HICK.

Have a good weekend fellas....GO CARDS GO!

Craig,

Hank Sauer in 1952 was a slow, poor-fielding outfielder who hit .270/.361/.531 in Wrigley, and led his team to a .500 record. Jackie Robinson in 1952 was, well you know, and hit .308/.440/.465 and led his team to the pennant. How could any rational voter choose Sauer over Robinson? I don't see it. Sauer drove in more runs, and that's about the extent of it. And yet, not only did one voter choose Sauer, he won the whole thing. It's not clear to me that Stewart was a poorer choice than Sauer; both illustrate that the voter obviously does not understand what contributes to winning ballgames.

We won't even talk about the other plausible MVP candidates from that year, Robin Roberts, Stan Musial et. al.

Let's see, what have you guys been talking about all day (he says after walking in the door...)

Damn, a song I know...

What's with Godfrey getting involved in negotiations with Delgado?

Hey I explained this yesterday!It makes perfect sense for Godfrey to be the point man on this negotiation because there are two other people who have to sign off on any agreement: Ted Rogers and J.P. Ricciardi. There is no way Delgado can be accomodated within Ricciardi's plan for a $ 53 million budget. They will have to go over, and Ted Rogers will have to OK that. In which case, Ricciardi is unlikely to get $53 million to spend on the other 24 spots. He's going to have to be OK with whatever arrangement they make. And the arrangement is going to have to go forward for as long as the contract runs. Neither Ricciardi nor Rogers can actually speak for the other guy in this process - Godfrey is the logical go-between.

I once heard Pat Marsden quote a rumour started by HIMSELF!

Who else would possibly use it?

It'll probably be the Sox, but I'm not sure I want to see the tortured story end yet.

Me too. Let's get it over with. And, like I say, we'll always have the Cubs.

We'll probably always have the White Sox, too. No one talks about the curse of Shoeless Joe. Probably because there's a curse that they deserve. I mean, they made it there and then lost on purpose. They should be cursed. They should at least have to watch the Cubs win it, and then the Astros, and the Mariners, and the Rangers, and the Devil Fishies, and thew Rockies, and the Expos.

Then they can have another chance...

Does anybody know if Delgado was awarded a WS ring in 1993?

All the September callups got rings as well. He only appeared in two games, I don't imagine he's boasting about it. But he got one.

The BP Internet awards are up for the AL.

Hmmm. Those results basically duplicate my ballot... they could have saved a lot of time and trouble and just asked me to hand out the awards...

If the Yanks absorb significant salary, should JP take a run at [Vazquez]?

Yes yes yes yes yes.

But I do not believe, not for a single second, that ANY person with the baseball experience of a BBWAA writer believed that Stew was really the AL MVP in 2003.

He received three of the 28 1st place votes, and finished 4th in the voting. Jayson Stark wrote a column explaining why he was ther MVP. I think it'a goofy position, but it was a position with a lot of support.

Anagrams of my real name (Ryan Christie):

A CHERRYS IN IT
A NICER SHIRTY
A RICH SENTRY I
A RICH RYE SNIT
STARCHIER YIN
REACH TINY SIR
IS TINY ARCHER
TRY IRISH ACNE
I THIS ERRANCY
SIR HIT CARNEY
HIRE SATYR INC

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=432
Why do some pitchers pitch better to some catchers?

Didn't prospectus look at this and conclude that it wasn't really true?

COMN.

Conclusions

Though we would colloquially say that game-calling doesn’t exist, it’s more accurate to say that if there is a true game-calling ability, it lies below the threshold of detection. There is no statistical evidence for a large game-calling ability, but that doesn’t preclude that a small ability.

the history of the MVP award, and the collective meaning that it has gathered over the years.

Which is actuallyt something to be afraid of. Look at just the AL votes in the last 25 years. Rollie Fingers winning in 1981 over Rickey Henderson was lunacy. George Bell over Alan Trammell in 1987 was just as bad. Dennis Eckersley over Roberto Alomar in 1992 was a joke. Mo Vaughn over Albert Belle in 1995? Juan Gonzalez over Alex Rodriguez in 1996? Juan Gonzalez over Nomar Garciaparra in 1998? Ivan Rodriguez over Derek Jeter in 1999?

The BBWAA has a lousy record of identifying the most valuable player.

Jose Guillen...[George] Bell was no model citizen

Guillen has been a problem in every clubhouse that welcomed him. Bell wasn't. Bell fought with the writers and insulted the fans. You get bonus marks for doing that in most ML clubhouses.

For the most part, Bell was a popular teammate. He was the centre of the clubhouse, a kind of Dominican redneck who kept the team from the normal and inevitable splintering into a Latin faction, a black faction, a redneck faction. He yelled at and kidded with and insulted everybody and they all did the same with him. As for his managers, Bobby Cox loved him, Cito Gaston used him as an extra hitting coach, and the Cubs managers, players, and press in 1991 were pleasantly surprised to find him so little trouble. His reputation, largely a press creation, had preceded him.

Bell had problems with two managers in his career.: Jimy Williams and Gene Lamont. The Jimy Williams saga is well known here. Suffice it to say, Jays management took leave of their senses and tried to implement something incredibly stupid and Bell, it must be admitted, responded very badly. Even when management loses their minds, they are still the boss.

Bell's problem with Gene Lamont came when Bell, who was supposed to be gone for the year with a knee injury, hobbled back into the lineup, came up with some huge game-winning hits down the stretch to help win the division, and then couldn't get a single at bat during the LCS against Toronto. In his place, Bo Jackson went 0-10 with 6 strikeouts.

Stewart's arrival in 2004 was a higher quality version of Mookie Wilson's arrival in Toronto in 1989.

That's a very, very good comparison. Similar type of player, similar role on team, similar result. The team got hot after he arrived. Minnesota largely got hot because they started pitching better. The Jays largely got hot because the aforementioned George Bell went on an even bigger tear than Mookie, and that would mean HRs and RBIs...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1907480
There's one less quality player to select from in the upcoming draft.

The Tigers reached a five-year deal with right-handed pitcher Justin Verlander, the second overall pick in the June draft.

The Tigers said earlier this month they had given up trying to sign the junior from Old Dominion because of a large gap between the two sides over a signing bonus.

The Tigers announced the contract Friday. Details were not immediately available.

Detroit took four college pitchers in the first five rounds of the June draft, starting with Verlander. He had a school-record 151 strikeouts last season. He had a 7-6 record and 3.49 ERA in 16 games.

http://shop.mlb.com/product/index.jsp?productId=1807287&cp=1452370.1452930.880837&parentPage=family
Do any of you guys know where i can get a pink Jays hat(COMN) for my GF? I haven't seen one anywhere, and i certainly can't get them here in Kingston, as the city is anti-baseball(you cant even buy a quality bat here). The MLB website has it, but i dont really want to pay 25us to get it and have it shipped. A little help?

This site is great, thanks guys.

Bullpen shop at the Dome if its still open, or a bunch of stores on Front street in Toronto should have them. Probably nothing in Kingston.

How do they estimate number of people watching something? Is there a rule of thumb number of viewers on average per television set watching, and if so, does anybody know what that number is?

Try this for the pink Jays cap:

1-877-JaysShop (529-7746)

Mail order Jays merchandise (they do have the cap you want).

Rollie Fingers winning in 1981 over Rickey Henderson was lunacy. George Bell over Alan Trammell in 1987 was just as bad.

Magpie, I love you...but George Bell's MVP wasn't "lunacy." If Player A outhomers Player B 47-28 and beats him in OPS, it's not an obviously lunatic decision to declare Player A's season better.

You'd probably reply that the wide gap in defensive value added made Trammell the better choice, and that Trammell added a speed dimension that Jorge didn't. Fair enough. But in context, Bell's offence was so much more central to his team's.

Forgive me for using such prosaic statistics as runs and RBI. In this context, though, I think they're valuable.

1987 Toronto leaders

RBI
Bell 134
Moseby 96
Barfield 84

Runs
Bell 111
Moseby 106
Fernandez 90

1987 Detroit leaders

RBI
Trammell 105
Evans 99
Nokes 87

Runs
Whitaker 110
Trammell 109
Gibson 95

Mike, aren't you using OPS conveniently here simply to favour Bell over Trammell?

Bell's 957 is 352/605
Trammell's 953 is 402/551

Any serious metric would rank Trammell's offense ahead of Bell's, thanks to the 50-point bulge in OBP. OPS wrongly equates 50 points of OBP with 50 points of SLG.

Trammell was both the better offensive player and, by a huge margin, the better defensive player, given both his skill level at his position and the end of the defensive spectrum he played at.

The voters saw 47 HR and 134 RBI and were slaves to these two numbers, as they have been for much of the history of MVP voting.

Whether voting for Bell over Trammell is "lunacy" is semantics, but it clearly was a pretty awful choice. That said, jobbing middle infielders in AL MVP voting is a long held tradition.

If you want to talk about who was the best player in '87, I find it hard to think that anyone other than Wade Boggs would be the choice.

Baseball tonight ! Yeah !!!!

We do need a World Series thread though.

I find it hard to think that anyone other than Wade Boggs would be the choice.

Very good candidate, of course. He's being unfairly left out of the equation because his team finished fifth. He would have had more value to his team if he hadn't spent so much of the year leading off - also not his fault, of course - but when 200 hits, 105 walks, and a .588 slugging percentage results in just 89 RBI and 108 runs scored...what we have is outstanding performance utilized in a way that minimizes its value. Kind of a neat trick.

Moises Alou is a free agent now. Might be a good DH option for the Jays for a season if everyone ends up ignoring him for a few months.

You're right, Chuck. Who needs junk stats like home runs?

This is somewhat of an eternal debate, but there's a perfectly reasonable argument for "most valuable" being the standard for MVP, rather than "best performance." If you unequivocally believe that it should be "best performance," then I'll concede your point, since we're passing in the night.

RBI isn't an illusory statistic. It represents actual, tangible value added. The problem with RBI, of course, is that it's easily distorted by a high-OBP or low-OBP lineup around you.

But in 1987, Toronto had a team OBP of .334, while Detroit's was .347. Toronto was third in the league in runs, and virtually league-average in OBP. Simply put, Bell drove the offense, since his power was so important to a mediocre-OBP offence. He drove in 38 more runs than the #2 man on the club, and he led the team in runs scored!

With a team OBP of .334, and with only part-timer Fred McGriff (.505) slugging better than .473, would it have been more valuable to the Jays for Bell to trade his 19 extra home runs and his extra triple for Trammell's 21 extra walks, 2 extra doubles and 35 extra singles?

Even if you do make that trade, it's inarguable that Bell was more central to the Jays' offence than Trammell was to the Tigers'.

Not to mention that Bell's OBP -- the only important offensive statistic that looks subpar compared to Tram -- took a decided hit in the Jays' late-season slump. Maybe it's proper to hold that against him...but voters who saw him play for most of the season saw him putting up better rate stats, until the steep late-season decline.

Regardless of whether you concede "lunacy," I'd argue your "pretty awful" point. In fact, I'd call it completely defensible.

Mike, I'm quite sure I didn't call HR's a junk stat. I was merely pointing out that HR/RBI often rule the day come MVP voting time.

While an AB by AB breakdown (more below) of both Bell's and Trammell's seasons might well reveal that Bell had the better offensive season, their defensive difference would surely still eat that difference up, no?

I am of the school that believes that clutch hitting is non-existent, or only modestly existent as some have recently come to believe. But I do concede that clutch hits exist, even if random chance (and not innate ability) is at their root. Thus, a player could have had a clutch-filled season with his hitting being disproportionately good in clutch situations. As such, OBP/SLG would not be the final word on much he contributed offensively.

I'm not sure this has ever been done, but I've always been curious about assessing a hitter's offensive season on a per AB basis, perhaps calculating for each AB (plate appearance, actually) the team's run expectation before the AB and the team's run expectation after. Add these all up and see what you get.

I haven't thought it entirely through, but hitters on good teams would get more opportunities for big run expectation gains and, conversely, big run expectation losses. Would we somehow have to introduce a denominator that factors in total opportunities to level the playing field? Should we even be levelling the playing field (as OPS/SLG do when counting stats like runs and RBI are ignored)?

I believe you are arguing that Bell's OBP/SLG understate his true offensive contribution because they are devoid of per AB context, and I believe you are pointing to his RBI as evidence of this. I am in no position to dispute that claim. You may well be correct that Bell did indeed have the better offensive season once we consider context. But my fallback argument will always be to look at the defensive gap between the two players... unless you can argue that Bell's defensive lapses were all harmless, as Bill James argued one year when presenting Bell's arbitration case. ;)

Perhaps we can get Michael Wolverton (I think it was him) to come up with a hitter's version of his support-neutral W-L records (where starting pitchers' seasons are evaluated on a per-start basis, rather than via an aggregation of all their innings). If I recall, Bill James tried to address this business of context in a rudimentary way in the 80's when he attempted to contextualize RBI's, placing an importance value on each. I think this was on the heals of Don Baylor's big RBI season where he won the MVP over his largely ignored teammate, Bobby Grich. James attempted to show how meaningless many of Baylor's RBI's were that year and how they overstated his true offensive contribution.

Fair enough, Chuck. And there's no doubt that Trammell had a better overall season when you consider defence. I just think Senor Bell was more valuable, in context.

More fundamentally, I guess my intuition is as follows...Imagine you're a big-league hitter.

* If you have a powerful, high-SLG team around you, your OBP will be much more valuable than your SLG.

Hence, the value of Mark Bellhorn. If David Eckstein were to get on base more, he'd be a much more valuable player; he can't drive himself in with a homer, but he can set the table for the fearsome, high-SLG guys behind him.

* If you have a low-OBP, low-SLG team around you, your SLG becomes much more important relative to your OBP, because somebody's got to convert baserunners into runs.

Hence, the wisdom in walking Barry Bonds. The non-Bonds hitters in the Giants lineup are so feeble that his walks are much less useful than any other hitter's walks in the majors. Certainly, any Giant preceding Bonds in the order would help his team immensely by getting on base. Obviously, pitchers strive to avoid walks with Bonds on deck.

Back to RBI, I agree that clutch hitting isn't a skill or a salient statistical characteristic for most hitters. Assuming clutch hitting isn't a relevant factor, RBI depends on:

* Power
* Whether teammates are on base
* Batting average
* Ability to avoid striking out

The first, third and fourth factors are all relatively fair bases for comparing players. It's the second factor, which is completely unrelated to the hitter's performance, that makes it unfair to strictly compare hitters based on their RBI totals. It's what swells the RBI counts of players like Joe Carter.

But Bell's teammates were low-OBP players for the most part. That's why I credit him for his RBI total -- it reflects not only his excellent SLG, but the conversion of that SLG into runs that (a) the Jays didn't get on base enough to deserve scoring, and (b) had to be driven in by him, since the rest of the lineup was not terribly powerful.

Mike D, it's not right to credit Bell for his RBIs above and beyond his .605 slug for the year. He batted cleanup behind Tony Fernandez, Lloyd Moseby and Barfield/Mulliniks. The OBP of the three hitters in front of him exceeded .350. He had plenty of runners on, and did a very good job of driving them in.

Oink.