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Thanks to everyone who commented on my latest article at The Hardball Times, "The Importance of Strike One (Part One)". I finished Part Two this morning - there is some very interesting data indeed - and it should be up next week.




One very interesting piece of data sort of passed me by when I was writing Part One; I meant to include it, then forgot all about it as the article neared completion. It's just a pair of data points, but I think they capture the importance of throwing that first pitch for a strike and the impact that it makes. If the first pitch is a ball, the hitter will (eventually) walk 14.2% of the time. If the first pitch is a strike, the hitter will walk just 3.9% of the time. So you are over three-and-a-half times more likely to walk a hitter if your first pitch is a ball.

On the Main Page of The Hardball Times this morning, we have an announcement that I am very proud to be a part of. THT is going to publish a book, called The Hardball Times 2004 Baseball Annual, that will contain lots of analysis, historical articles, plenty of data that you can't get anywhere else, and a full recap of the 2004 season. We're hoping that it proves to be something you - or any baseball fan - will enjoy, and the book will be available starting in November.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, October 13 2004 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#26442) #
Sign me up for the annual. I'm a big fan of THT.
_tangotiger - Friday, October 15 2004 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#26443) #
Craig, great job on the ball-strike thing. You really hit the nail on it, and I'm glad you are promoting the linear weights by count. Imagine if you will a win expectancy by:
park,opponent,inning,score,base,out,count

Off the top of my head, on 2-strike counts, if you only look called balls, strike 3, or 2-strike fouls, 2-strike fouls make up 27% of the count.
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