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Just sits at home and rolls her spastic eyes
But every weekend through the door
Come words of wisdom from the world outside

In today's roundup we have a couple of John Cerutti related articles from the Star and a piece by Batter's Box reader Stephen Tomlinson:

  1. Dave Perkins:

      Mary Clement spoke for the congregation, there to give John Cerutti the warm and heartfelt sendoff he deserved.

      "We see the words and can't believe it. We speak the words and can't believe it. We hear the words and can't believe it. We just can't believe it," Cerutti's sister said in an eloquent and stirring portion of a touching funeral mass said over the late Blue Jays pitcher and broadcaster, whose shocking death came in his sleep at age 44 last Sunday morning.

      Cerutti, his large family and many friends feeling varying degrees of numbness at his still-inexplicable passing, was remembered as "a beam of energy" who "packed more experiences, achievements, quality time with his family and just plain fun into 44 years" than most people in much longer lifetimes. His widow, Claudia, spoke of John's traits, integrity, courage, faith, honour and love, being passed along to each of their three children, Daniel, 18, Nicole, 15, and Janine, 10. To his sister Mary, he was "the best kind of shot in the arm."

  2. Donovan Vincent:

      An otherwise healthy-looking person, fit, athletic, drops dead in the middle of competition or dies suddenly in their sleep.

      We've seen it happen so many times, most recently this past Sunday with the death of former Blue Jays pitcher John Cerutti at age 44.

      There was the sudden and shocking death in 1990 of college basketball star Hank Gathers in Los Angeles during an NCAA game. He had been diagnosed with a heart arrhythmia three months prior, but cleared to play.

      There was the death of 28-year-old Russian pairs skater Sergei Grinkov at Lake Placid, N.Y., in 1995 of an apparent heart attack. The family of Devaughn Darling, a Florida State football player, recently reached a $2 million (U.S.) settlement with the university after Darling, 18, collapsed and died in February, 2001 of an apparent cardiac arrhythmia.

      There's been no official cause of death released as yet for Cerutti, but his wife said yesterday that some time ago a doctor told Cerutti he might have an arrhythmia problem that he should get checked out as he got older.

  3. Stephen Tomlinson - Jays of '04: Stat Report:

      Equivalent Average, R27, Age, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage for every 2004 Blue Jay (and Major League leaders).


    Feel free to use today's roundup to discuss whatever you wish. Like an 8-3 Cardinals victory over the Dodgers or a 4-2 Braves victory over the Astros. Or how about the importance of Porter's Five Forces. Or the fact that the one thing Mike Wilner, Spencer Fordin, and former Ontario premier Bill Davis have in common is that they have never been in my kitchen.

    I know I'm behind on the prizes and cuttlefish. Will award those today in this thread.
Jays Roundup - Mother Doesn't Go Out Any More | 67 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Joe - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#27365) #
http://me.woot.net
I've always loved StephenT's reviews of the Jays. Reading through it reminded me of a fact I had forgotten: Howie Clark exists!
_Eric - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#27366) #
There's all sorts of stories in the Sunday Papers about whether or not the Jays can re-sign Carlos Delgado. Joe Jackson certainly thinks Carlos would look sharp sporting Toronto colours again next year.
_Marc - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#27367) #
There seems to be a consistent theme with losses in the playoffs. Veteran teams keep A) coming from behind after their opponents have been lulled into a false sense of security and B) beating up on closers who are left in too long.

Did anyone else pull their hair out when Gardenhire left Nathan in for that third inning. Nathan did not look like he thought he should be out there. And then the same thing happened with Lidge, who has never really been more than a one inning guy in the majors.

It just goes to show that even the most dominating relievers are human if a good team gets the opportunity to see them more than once in a game.

My question to everyone, in this convoluted way, is whether or not you think it is better, in a playoff situation (but not sudden death), to stretch out (and possibly tire out) your closer or go with a fresh, albeit less reliable, arm?
_Paul Z. - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#27368) #
Nicely done, Eric...
_Magpie - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#27369) #
Darn you, Eric! I knew that one. I was all ready to be the man...
_Jim - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#27370) #
'Did anyone else pull their hair out when Gardenhire left Nathan in for that third inning.'

I follow the Twins pretty closely. I kept most of my apartment building awake screaming at him in 2 spots.

A. Why did Kubel hit
B. Why wasn't it Crain the second he walked Cairo.
_Jordan - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#27371) #
To my way of thinking, your closer is your best reliever, and should be brought into the game when the need is greatest. I think the Astros were right to bring in Lidge when they did, because you don't want to lose a critical game in the 8th or even 7th inning with your 2nd- or 3rd-best reliever on the hill.

Where the Astros and Twins may have erred, however, is in thinking that their closers also had to finish the game. You use your best weapon when you have to, but when that weapon has been emptied, there's not much point in continuing to fire it, especially if you've got the lead. Bring in your best remaining arm and don't get hung up on roles.

Cito Gaston's single gutsiest move as a manager, I think, was in the '92 Series against Atlanta, Game 6, 11th inning, one-run lead. With Duane Ward and Tom Henke already out of the game, he brought in rookie Mike Timlin to finish off the Series, even though no one would have faulted him had he kept tiring veteran Jimmy Key in the game. All managing is situational.
_Magpie - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#27372) #
had he kept tiring veteran Jimmy Key in the game.

Gaston, I'm pretty sure, expected he would be able to keep Key in that game. He had let him lead off in the top of the inning (Sprague was still available to pinch hit - besides Timlin, Eichhorn was in the bullpen.)

Key had given up a leadoff single, but that was all. The second guy reached on an error, and Key retired the PH Hunter after a sac bunt.

Key was working on two days rest after starting Game 4, and this was one of those moments where a manager could ask a pitcher if he had anything left, and get an honest answer rather than a macho answer...

Timlin wasn't a rookie, though.
Mike Green - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#27373) #
I couldn't agree more with Jordan.

Crain is, incidentally, a fine pitcher.
_Marc - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#27374) #
If the Jays really want Jesse Harper back, they could have him. Milwaukee has outrighted him off their 40 man roster.
_Jordan - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#27375) #
Whoops on Timlin -- thanks for the correction, Magpie.

I was just looking up the '92 Series for that post, and realized I'd forgotten the amazing collection of pitching talent the Blue Jays had that year. Check out the '92 pitching staff:

Jack Morris
David Cone
Dave Stieb
Pat Hentgen
Al Leiter
Jimmy Key
David Wells
Juan Guzman
Todd Stottlemyre
Tom Henke
Duane Ward
Mike Timlin
Mark Eichhorn
David Weathers

Some guys finishing their careers, some guys just getting started (Leiter only pitched one inning, and Hentgen had a 5.36 ERA), but altogether, a staff that I don't think this franchise will ever be able to top.
_Magpie - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#27376) #
Jordan - who was the best RH pitcher on that 92 staff? David Cone, surely. Who was the best LH pitcher? Jimmy Key. Who was the star closer? Tom Henke.

They all left as free agents.

Who was the big winner? Jack Morris. He went from 21-6 to 7-12 with an ERA perilously close to that of an expensive convenience store.

And to top that off, they dismissed Dave Stieb (over the winter) and David Wells (in spring of 93). Granted, neither of them were much good in 1992 (Stieb did manage to beat Milwaukee twice, which was huge) but when you have that much pitching walking out the door, you might want to hoard your assets.

What did they do? Well, they added Dave Stewart. That's all. They took a flier on Danny Cox. They were probably hoping Ken Dayley would be healthy.

I still think they were insanely optimistic.
_Jordan - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#27377) #
And the results of that cavalier attitude towards pitching were evident by '94: Stewart, Guzman and Stottlemyre all had ERAs over 5.00, while the team's three top relievers were closer Darren Hall and setup men Tony Castillo and Woody Williams. The decline was well underway.

Wells did need time to grow up, however; he didn't really hit his stride till he arrived with the Yankees years later. And I don't have a real problem with the dismissal of Stieb; they basically kept him on the roster to give him a consolation World Series ring. But Stewart's Blue Jays stint was remarkably bad: ERA+s of 98 and 82 in his two seasons in Toronto. Guzman had one great year ('96) after that and was otherwise an enigma; Leiter and Stottlemyre were both gone by spring '95. Williams is still having a fine career, well after Stewart the exec dealt him away for Joey Hamilton. After the '93 Series, Ward pitched 3 more big-league innings and was finished. Championship teams fall hard.
Mike Green - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#27378) #
I still think they were insanely optimistic.

I figure that Gillick just decided, correctly in hindsight, that they could win in 93 by bludgeoning the opposition into submission, rather than the subtle approach of 92. Kind of like the 04 Cardinals and Yankees.

a staff that I don't think this franchise will ever be able to top

The 92 staff was indeed great. But, forever is a long time. There is no inherent reason that Toronto could not at some point in the future be a high payroll team, and the combination of veteran stars and young pitching prospects on the rise is one that we could see again when that happens.
Craig B - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#27379) #
Jordan, I wouldn't be surprised if that '92 staff has the most combined career win shares of any pitching staff, ever.
_Marc - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#27380) #
One of the keys to the Jays being able to win those World Series and have those amazing pitchers in 92 was the fact that they had the highest payroll in baseball at the time. Even more so then the evil empire. I still get gleefully when I remember how bad the Yankees were in the late 80s and early 90s.
_Magpie - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#27381) #
From Tomlinson's Report:

the returning players were 26 wins worse in 2004 than 2003.
If they had equalled their previous year, and if the Pythagorean had
evened out, the Jays would have won 97 games.


Whoa...

If absolutely everything had gone right... which I think is what many of us recognized in spring 2004. The team could win, could pull a Florida, if absolutely everything went right.

Not quite what happened...

In 2005, everyone can look forward to the Plexiglass Principle and all those indicators that generally note the unceasing tendency of everyone and everything to return to the mean. Teams that underperform their Pythagorean projections one year will not do it the next year. Everything trends towards .500

The Yankees "should have" won just 89 games this year based on their runs scored and allowed. This isn't really a 101 win group of talent. If they stand pat (yeah, like that could ever happen) expecting 85 wins would be quite reasonable. As it is, they'll probably try to shore things up with Beltran and Pavano...
_MatO - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#27382) #
An interesting aspect about losing those free agents after the 2002 season was that the Jays had the biggest horde of draft picks in team history in June 1993. I mentioned this on a thread a while ago that I was stunned while surfing through the 1993 draft that the Jays had 8 picks in the first 3 rounds and basically blew it. The only player they got out of it was Chris Carpenter in the 1st. The 1994 draft didn't even get a Carpenter. The best player drafted may have been Gary Glover. These drafts go a long way to explain the malaise of the 90's.
_Jordan - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#27383) #
had the highest payroll in baseball at the time

Seems like a dream, doesn't it? But the Jays did go about assembling their championship teams the right way: lots of homegrown talent to start with, shrewd trades of that talent and prospects to obtain key contributors, and last-minute free-agent signings to push them over the top.

You don't need to have the most expensive team every year (though it certainly doesn't hurt), but in most cases, you do need to have enough funds available to make a push for the summit. I have little doubt that when the time comes when the Jays are again knocking at the door, ownership will recognize the situation and will supply what's needed. But the hardest part of the climb -- the establishment of a competitive home-grown team -- is also the longest part, and that's where the Blue Jays are right now.
_R Billie - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#27384) #
the returning players were 26 wins worse in 2004 than 2003.
If they had equalled their previous year, and if the Pythagorean had
evened out, the Jays would have won 97 games.


That's why I think this team should be adding rather than subtracting talent for the next few years. And they should be adding significant amounts of payroll each year as well. If things break right they can win and if they keep or replace a guy like Delgado and continue to supplement with their young players and smart free agent acquisitions they will challenge 90 wins.

This was as bad a year as you can imagine but I think it would be completely wrong to lose core players like Delgado and not adequately replace them. Then your team will TRULY be as bad as it appeared.
_Jordan - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#27385) #
I was stunned while surfing through the 1993 draft that the Jays had 8 picks in the first 3 rounds and basically blew it

Further to Mat's point: meet the Toronto Blue Jays' 1993 draftees (Round, Position, Name, and whether they came from high school, a community college, or college):

1 P Chris Carpenter HS
1 OF Matt Farner HS
1 P Jeremy Lee HS
1 P Mark Lukasiewicz CC
2 SS Anthony Medrano HS
2 1B Ryan Jones HS
3 P Mike Romano Coll
3 P Joe Young HS
4 OF Thad Busby HS
5 SS Charles Bourne HS
6 OF Rob DeBoer Coll
7 P Donny Barker HS
8 P Matt Stone HS
9 P Oreste Volkert HS
10 P Ruben Corral HS

Alhough, to be entirely fair to the authors of that disaster, the best late-first-rounder in the '93 draft was Jermaine Allensworth. Fun fact: Oakland's first-round pick was John Wasdin. But if you'd rather not know that Scott Rolen was still on the board for each of the Jays' first-round supplemental picks, you'd better not read this sentence.
_Magpie - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#27386) #
I figure that Gillick just decided, correctly in hindsight, that they could win in 93 by bludgeoning the opposition into submission,

Well, he traded his 3B for a backup INF; he let his LF and his DH and his SS walk away as free agents. All the other guys came back, and the steps he made to replace what he had lost...I can't for the life of me see what he had planned. It was all a crazy scramble.

They moved their backup catcher to 3B. Always a brave policy... they weakened the defense and didn't really improve the offense. They just wanted to get rid of Gruber.

Gillick probably hoped that Derek Bell would replace Candy Maldonado in the OF, but Derek drove Gaston crazy to the point that Gillick had to trade him for an OF who it turned out had health problems (Darrin Jackson).

They had signed one generic SS to replace another, but Schofield: a) hit like a pitcher and b) suffered a season-ending injury in May.

After a month of Alfredo and Cedeno playing SS, Gillick traded his disappointment in the OF for a real SS (Fernandez, at that time playing very badly in New York). Which fixed that problem, but left him with Turner Ward or Darnell Coles in the lineup. At a corner OF spot. Eventually, he traded for Rickey...

Three things went right, in a major way.

Roberto Alomar, already a great player, had his best season.

John Olerud absolutely exploded - and no one could have expected the degree to which he did.

And Paul Molitor did a nice job replacing Dave Winfield. (Nice? Molitor in 1993 was the best player I have ever seen. Until Barry, anyway...)

But, but... the 1992 team looked like an outstanding team. But I still can't figure out what they were thinking in 1993.
_Magpie - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#27387) #
Scott Rolen was still on the board for each of the Jays' first-round supplemental picks,

You just made my day.

Six high-school pitchers.
_Jordan - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#27388) #
but left him with Turner Ward or Darnell Coles in the lineup. At a corner OF spot.

[Shudder]

Eventually, he traded for Rickey...

In a perverse way, Gillick is fortunate that Steve Karsay blew out his arm for Oakland, because that trade could've been second-guessed otherwise. As a 21-year-old, Karsay posted an 8-4, 3.38, 104 IP, 98 H, 32 BB, 100 K line in Double-A, and IIRC, was still learning how to pitch.
_Marc - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#27389) #
I'm curious why there is so much talk about how the Astros will not take the interim manager title from Phil Garner and just give him the job because they have to consider minority candidates for the position... The Jays did not do that with Gibbons.
_R Billie - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#27390) #
But the hardest part of the climb -- the establishment of a competitive home-grown team -- is also the longest part, and that's where the Blue Jays are right now.

I don't personally believe that it has to be one rigid sequence of events to build a competitive club. I don't think it hurts to add quality veterans to a team here and there as long you have the money to do it and you aren't losing many high draft picks.

In the Jays case, it's imperative that they at least maintain the talent level of the team of the past couple of seasons. Buy in from the fans and ownership is much easier to achieve when your record stays above .500 rather than well below.

It might be true that the Jays might have to build another 5 years to actually win a World Series. But they can't afford to play BAD baseball in that time. They can't afford to lose 90 games with regularity. It's fully possible that they can field an above .500 team even without Delgado. But management has to be a lot more shrewd about player acquisition and what players they move off the roster. The Jayson Werth deal isn't looking too good about now in light of the Jays' current needs.
_Paul D - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#27391) #
Off-topic, and I mentioned this awhile ago in one of the game threads, but it was towards the end and I'm not sure if anyone noticed.

If there's anyone in the KW area that might be interested in getting together to watch a game or two and have a few beers, let me know. COMN for my email.
robertdudek - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#27392) #
The trade would never be second guessed (not by me, anyways), even if Karsay had become a Hall of Famer. The trump card for Gillick was that Rickey was one of the best players in baseball at the time and the Jays ended up winning the World Series. Even though Rickey hit poorly by his own standards, he still put up something like a .380 OBP with the Jays. Coupled with his superb baserunning ability, it added up to a big jolt for the offence.

That trade remains the quintessential example of trading the future for a better shot at glory today.
_Magpie - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#27393) #
Even though Rickey hit poorly by his own standards, he still put up something like a .380 OBP with the Jays.

He scored 37 runs in 44 games. And people complained, at the time, that he wasn't helping...

The 1993 Blue Jays, like the 1961 Yankees, did not lead the league in runs scored.
Mike Green - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#27394) #
John Olerud absolutely exploded - and no one could have expected the degree to which he did

Funny, I was just re-reading Bill James 1993 Baseball Player Ratings Book for a potential article on pitching prospects. James said about Olerud (after his .284/.375/.450 season at age 23 in 1992) words to the effect that he was quite capable of taking a small step forward or "taking the league by storm in 1993", and recommended him highly.

Olerud actually played better in 1993 than the MVP that season, Frank Thomas, but it wasn't really a shock that he was one of the best players in the league in light of his age and performance in 90-92. I actually expected that he would have a better career than he has had, although it has been a fine one.

The 93 draft was a poor one. I'd love to hear Pat Gillick's account of the summer of 93. I'm guessing that he was spending a disproportionate amount of his energy on the mid-season moves.
_Magpie - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#27395) #
That trade remains the quintessential example of trading the future for a better shot at glory today.

Yep. And it worked the year before: Jeff Kent for David Cone.

The Jayson Werth deal isn't looking too good about now in light of the Jays' current needs.

I'm not sure about that. I like Werth a lot (I am still being ribbed, however, for once saying that he reminded me of Dale Murphy - hey, he's tall, started as a catcher, either strikes out or hits a HR) but anyway, this team has a few outfielders and it stills needs relief pitchers.
_MatO - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#27396) #
Henderson was hit on the hand by a pitch early in his time with the Jays which would explain his hitting troubles but he could always get on base.
_Magpie - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#27397) #
re-reading Bill James 1993 Baseball Player Ratings Book

I'd forgotten that - I think many of us hoped/expected that Olerud would take a big step. But we were probably thinking .315...

James had one prophecy I'll never forget. It think it was in the 1983 Abstract (possibly 1984), and he was looking at the best players born in 1951 for some reason. After the early success of Cesar Cedeno and Jeff Burroughs, and then the Dave Parker era, the battle for best player born in 1951 had boiled down to Buddy Bell, Dwight Evans, and Dave Winfield. And he said "my money's on Winfield... I think he could become the first player to drive in 100 runs at age 40."

Not bad.
_Scott Levy - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#27398) #
When the Jays traded for Henderson, he was hitting .327-.469-.553 with 31 steals, 85 walks (only 46 strike outs), and 17 home runs in 318 at bats.

With Toronto....

Reg season: .215-.356-.319, 163 AB, 22 SB
ALCS: .120-.241-.200, 25 AB
World Series: .227-.393-.318, 22 AB

I loved Rickey, greatest lead-off man of all-time, but he was crappy for Toronto, anyway you look at it. His only real accomplishment with the Jays was being a base stealing distraction for opposing pitchers.

The trade itself was fine. My brother (who is not a Jays fan) always jokes that the Jays traded a potential HOF (Kent) for a few months of Cone, and traded at that time their best pitching prospect for a few months of Henderson, who ended up doing very little outside of a lead-off walk in 9th inning of the Game 6 World Series. My reply each time is...we won the world series. End of discussion. Prospects are great, and with the way the team is currently put together, trading prospects for the Cone's and Henderson's of the world probably won't accomplish much, but winning a world series is hard, and we did it for consecutive years. I wouldn't take those trades back for anything, even if Karsay panned out.

I agree with the person who said it was hard to understand what Gillick was doing in 1993. The 1992 was world's better, or at least more balanced. The 1993 team seemed to have the 2004-Cardinals syndrom, where EVERYONE seemed to hit their best.
robertdudek - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#27399) #
I think Rickey, by the standards of leadoff men at the time, was above average in Toronto. Crappy by his own standards, yes, but he was an asset to the team.
_G.T. - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#27400) #
One of my favourite things from James' post-Abstract annuals was, IIRC, in the 1990 book where his recommended to any fantasy GM, or even any real GM, to GET ROBERTO ALOMAR.

I wonder if Gillick read that comment. :)
_G.T. - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#27401) #
In addition to the hand problem, wasn't there something about Tommy Craig leaving an icepack on Rickey's foot for too long?
_Magpie - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#27402) #
Crappy by his own standards, yes, but he was an asset to the team.

35 walks in 44 games, 22 SB and just 2 CS.

And the first ever "freezer-burn" baseball injury?
_Magpie - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#27403) #
GET ROBERTO ALOMAR

Who could forget! He printed it in caps. And Gillick went and got him...
_MatO - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#27404) #
BA doesn't have the AFL boxscore yet but they do have the stats. Vito was 2-3 with a 2B. Hill had 2 2B in the 2nd game. Peterson pitched decently with 3K's in 2IP.
_MatO - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#27405) #
That 1993 team with Henderson, White, Alomar and Molitor had great base stealers (high percentage).
_Scott Levy - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#27406) #
I think Rickey, by the standards of leadoff men at the time, was above average in Toronto. Crappy by his own standards, yes, but he was an asset to the team.

His .356 OBA was valuble, as were his 22 steals, but I think you'd find it hard, even in 1993, to say his performance in Toronto was above average. He wasn't making any type of contact (.215 BA), and only had 8 extra base hits in 163 at bats (.675 OPS overall).

I would still make that trade in a second though (Karsay for Henderson), even if Karsay stayed healthy and panned out.
_Spicol - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#27407) #
His .356 OBA was valuble, as were his 22 steals, but I think you'd find it hard, even in 1993, to say his performance in Toronto was above average.

It probably wasn't above average, but he only needed to be better than Darnell Coles (253/319/371) and Turner Ward (192/287/311) to be an improvement and for the trade to "work out". Even though he was expected to be a larger one than he was, and the shot at that potential was worth a Karsay, Rickey clearly was an improvement over the two alternatives.
_MatO - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#27408) #
I wonder how different things would have been if the original trade for Randy Johnson had gone through. The Henderson trade was the backup plan.
robertdudek - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#27409) #
He was a leadoff hitter, and his slugging percentage was nearly inconsequential. Certainly not nearly enough of a negative to negate his OBP and base-running skills.

Trust me, as someone who has been studying baseball numbers for over 20 years - Rickey Henderson was a valuable offensive asset for the Blue Jays in 1993.

Or don't trust me and provide us with an analysis of Rickey's impact on runs scored.
Mike Green - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#27410) #
The other thing Rickey did is that he made pitchers work. Between Rickey, Alomar, Molitor and Olerud, starters were high up in their pitch counts usually by the 5th inning.
_John Northey - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#27411) #
The good ol' Randy Johnson rumour, which was confirmed by Gillick iirc, was always a big 'what if'. If Gillick was like the GM in Chicago (remember Mike Sirotka) Johnson would've been in Toronto in '93 as the trade for Henderson was just a verbal handshake at the point that Seattle gave in on Karsay for Johnson. A shame Gillick didn't think of another player or two that Seattle would've liked for Johnson.

The rotation for 1993's playoffs would've been (with ERA's)...
3.24 Randy Johnson (best season to date at the time, only 3 times has done worse than that since 3.08 ERA in post season)
3.87 Pat Hentgen (0-1 18 ERA in ALCS, 1-0 1.50 in WS)
3.99 Juan Guzman (2-0 2.08 ERA in ALCS, 0-1 3.75 in WS)
4.44 Dave Stewart (2-0 2.02 ERA in ALCS, 0-1 6.75 in WS)

with a bench of
6.19 Jack Morris (did not appear in '93 playoffs)
4.84 Todd Stottlemyre (0-1 7.50 in ALCS, 0-0 27.00 in WS)
4.11 Al Leiter (0-0 3.38 in ALCS, 1-0 7.71 in WS)

Real rotation was....
ALCS - Guzman, Stewart, Hentgen, Stottlemyre, Guzman, Stewart
WS - Guzman, Stewart, Hentgen, Stottlemyre, Guzman, Stewart

Stottlemyre would've lost his slot to Hentgen.

So, if all else went the same (unlikely as Henderson wouldn't have been there plus, of course, lineups would've been different vs Johnson over Guzman) the scores would've been...














GameTorontoWhite SoxReal ResultNew
17?W?W?
233WTie
311LTie
446LL
55?W?W?
663WW
GameTorontoPhilliesReal ResultNew
18?W?W?
245LL
3106WW
4153WW
50?L?L?
682WW


With ? for Johnson scores, assuming the new rotation would've been Johnson, Guzman, Stewart, Hentgen.

The WS would most likely have ended up the same with or without Johnson (I think he'd have allowed less than 8 runs in game one). The ALCS though is up in the air. Only 1 W for sure, Johnson allowing under 5 runs a game is likely thus adding 2 more, then the Jays would've had to win one of the two 'ties' in extra innings.

In the end it doesn't look like adding Johnson would've made the playoffs any easier outside of the wild 15-14 game as only 2 losses look possible to have shifted to the win column (one listed as a tie, the other being the WS shutout against the Jays if Johnson could've shut out the Phillies as well). Odd eh?

Johnson would've made 94 onwards much nicer but might have left as a free agent after 95 (I think he was a free agent potential then, but resigned by Seattle) thus making it even more painful during the winter after that ugly season, although Ash might've done better with the draft choices than Gillick did in '93 with the ones from Henderson leaving.
_John Northey - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#27412) #
Oops, didn't mean to leave that much space, should've previewed first. Still, interesting to see/remember that the Jays won in the '93 playoffs by big scores, with just one win where they scored 3 or less.
_Scott Levy - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#27413) #
http://tsn.ca/mlb/news_story.asp?id=101192
This may have been mentioned already, but I haven't seen it, so forgive me if it's been posted already.

The Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to terms on a minor league contract with right-hander Po-Hsuan Keng from Taiwan. The native of Taipei City who turns 20 on October 15 will attend Minor League Spring Training next season.
Mike D - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#27414) #
Nice catch, Scott. New thread for the signing.
_Jeff Geauvreau - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#27415) #
Bob File was just released by the Blue Jays after 6 years with the Jays organization.

He is to be inducted into Philadelphia University Hall of Fame at 6pm Eastern time tonight.

Hopefully can come back with another team and regain his Rookie Season form.
_Jeff Geauvreau - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#27416) #
Jeff promises to use preview in the future. :-)

This should have read.

"Hopefully he can come back"
_Blue in SK - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#27417) #
http://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/columnist.jsp;jsessionid=JALCKCPLMMNI?content=20041008_142810_5312
There is an excellent and touching column at Sportsnet.ca from Scotty Carson, as he recalls his memories of John Cerutti. COMN
_Marc - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#27418) #
BA has sixth round pick Cory Patton listed as having signed with the Jays. Not sure if anyone has pointed that out...
_Jeff Geauvreau - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#27419) #
I just got off the phone with John Manuel at Baseball America. I will post some off comments on the Cory PATTON SIGNING in a little while.
_Jeff Geauvreau - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#27420) #
Jeff is banned by me till he starts using preview.
_Peter - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#27421) #
Jeff,
Can't find any confirmation on the File release. Can you provide a link?
Looking forward to the Patton info.
_Jeff Geauvreau - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#27422) #
Peter , the information on the File release is from his best friend who I have played against for the last 2 years in yahoo fantasy baseball. He sent a email to all league members this afternoon.

It is credible information I believe , we will have to wait for a blue jay news release for a hard copy confirmation.

Ahhhh , Peter are you Jaysfan , if so check your email.

Jeff (torontonorth )

Peter , the Patton info will be posted within 15 minutes.
_Jeff Geauvreau - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#27423) #
Jeff Geauvreau talking with John Manual at Baseball America at 4.15 PM ET this afternoon.

The following is not an exact transcription of our conversation and any mistakes are mine. The whole conversation is not included due to time constraints on my part.

Jeff: What do you think of the Jays signing of 6th round pick Cory Patton ?

John: I think he is a very Professional hitter; he is not an athletic player such as Reed Johnson. He is the type of player the Jays have been drafting.

Jeff: What information do you have on his signing bonus?

John: We have no information at present.

Jeff’s comment: John does not sound very excited by the signing and the Blue Jays drafting philosophy.

John: Cory will be a very good organizational player and not a top Prospect.

Jeff: Thank you for your time and have a great day

John: You are welcome and call anytime.
Craig B - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#27424) #
Terrific news about Patton, thanks Jeff.
_Jeff Geauvreau - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#27425) #
Hey Guys,

Does someone want to start a Cory Patton signing thread which we can add information to as it comes out ?
Craig B - Friday, October 08 2004 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#27426) #
Jeff, we can use the roundup threads.
_Scott - Saturday, October 09 2004 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#27427) #
A good day in the AFL yesterday for the baby Jays.
Big V was 2 for 4 with a 2b, Hattig had a 2-run triple, while Rosario continued where he left off with 3 innings of 2H, 4K 0ER baseball. Arnold was not as good with 2innings of 4H 1ER 1K baseball.
_Scott - Saturday, October 09 2004 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#27428) #
There were a couple of notes in today's Globe and Mail that may be of interest.

--the Jays will go ahead and purchase FieldTurf for next year and not wait for Sportsco to make a decision.
--Milton Bradley (former minor league hitting instructor with the Mets) is a candidate for the first base job.
_Brian B. - Saturday, October 09 2004 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#27429) #
Interesting that the Jays are considering the Mets former minor league hitting instructor for first base coach, while the Mets are considering the Jays former manager (Carlos Tosca) for *their* open managerial position.
Dave Till - Saturday, October 09 2004 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#27430) #
The trump card for Gillick was that Rickey was one of the best players in baseball at the time and the Jays ended up winning the World Series.

As I recall, the Jays traded for Rickey mostly to keep the other AL East contenders from getting him. He was going to go somewhere.

At the time, the trade was considered overkill, as WAMCO was pulverizing the league, but I would have made the deal too.
_Rich - Sunday, October 10 2004 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#27431) #
The Jays made the Ricky deal largely because they didn't think Karsay would be able to stay healthy (and they were right, of course).
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