If you think Halladay, Lilly, Bush, Rosario, Batista, and Frampton will be in the rotation in 2006, then you feel like I do.

Rather then say something clever, since i can only guess at where this song is from, i will just ask. Is this the sopranos theme song.

Rosario
Halladay
Chacin
Bush
Banks

2006 rotation:

Halladay
Batista
Bush
League
Chacin

Sure I'll take a guess:

Halladay
Lilly
Bush
Chacin
McGowan

Since it is a slow day I wanted to use this space to thank everyone at Batters Box for all the support for my book (Chasing Steinbrenner) over the course of this season, the mid-season get-together, and, most importantly the intelligent, interesting and entertaining Jays talk. Like most of you all, I'm already looking forward to next season.

Let's all hope that Gibbons can "Show me the way" as well as Frampton did with his live set.

2006 Rotation:

Halladay
Bush
McGowan
Banks
Chacin

2006 Bullpen:

Batista
League
Vermilyea
Chulk
(free agent)

Shaun Marcum will make an appearance in the summer of 2006 and David Purcey will get a look-see in September.

There's nothing like dreamin'.

Speaking of dreaming, I turned on the radio last night, as the Yankee-Twin game was in extras. Tanyon Sturtze was pitching to Pat Borders, with Shannon Stewart in the on-deck circle, and Esteban Loiaza and Felix Heredia warming in the Yankee bullpen. I was half-expecting "Yankee pitching coach Jerry Garvin" to make a trip to the mound, and call in shortstop Bob Bailor and second baseman Damaso Garcia for a conference.

I continue to be disappointed in BA's coverage this year. They are not even listing up-to-date Arizona Fall League stats for all the teams. Mind you, the MLB site, which is supposedly the "official AFL site" does not list any stats either.

The Jays 2005 Rotation:

1. Roy Halladay
2. Ted Lilly
3. Paul Byrd
4. David Bush
5. Gustavo Chacin

Errrggg. I cannot read, clearly. 2006, then:

1. Roy Halladay
2. Francisco Rosario
3. David Bush
4. Paul Byrd
5. Josh Banks

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/04league20s/int.html
BA's top 20 IL prospect list is up. COMN. Four Sky Chiefs make it- Rios, Quiroz, Adams and Dave Bush at #20. It's quite evident that the Jays feel differently about pitching prospects like Bush, Banks and Marcum than BA. I'll let time answer the question about who is right.

Eric,

Good call on the Paul Byrd prediction. I beleive J.P. had interest in him when he was on K.C. Isn't he a free agent now? And with him having an off year, could probably be had pretty cheap?

We were happy to do it, Rob. Thank you for the book -- it was a fun read during a bad season.

Last time the Red Sox came to the Dome, the O-Drum attracted some friendly and chatty Sox fans in the upper deck, and we gave your book a good talking-up. So the Cheer Club could be directly responsible for as many as four sales. ;)

It seemed to me that BA said plenty of good things about BJ prospects in the chats through every league.

BA's top 20 IL prospect list is up.

Wow, the Twins are really impressive.

2006 rotation: Halladay, Lilly, Bush, McGowan, Redman.

Mike I liked your list, but I noticed no Lilly or Frasor.

The Jays control Lilly through 2006. I wonder given the Jays "are willing to trade anybody", if J.P. would move the lefty(given that he's near the top of his perceived value)this off-season, if he could get a first/base DH type with high up-side. I'm not really advocating this, but I do think it remains possible. Watching the play-offs this year a high end starter like Lilly would have a lot of value to a contender.

Hey, where's my totally undeserved cuttlefish and points from yesterday.

"The Jays control Lilly through 2006. I wonder given the Jays "are willing to trade anybody", if J.P. would move the lefty(given that he's near the top of his perceived value)this off-season, if he could get a first/base DH type with high up-side. I'm not really advocating this, but I do think it remains possible. Watching the play-offs this year a high end starter like Lilly would have a lot of value to a contender."

- If he and a couple of the young guys are looking down the stretch I wouldn't be surprised one bit. If there's one strength the Jays have in the years comming, it's pitching.

Sturtze was pitching to Pat Borders, with Shannon Stewart in the on-deck circle, and Esteban Loiaza and Felix Heredia warming in the Yankee bullpen.

Exactly what I was thinking. They also had Quantrill in the bullpen too. So the entire Yankee bullpen after Gordon and Rivera is ex-Jays.

Byrd made 7 mill last year though. I'm not sure how much his surgury will bring his price down considering he came back and pitched so well. Something like an E.R.A. of 3.69, and a WHIP of 1.28... somethig in that area.
He probly won't get 7 mill again, but that's still quite aways away from fitting in the Jays budget.

2006 Rotation

Halladay
Lily
Mcgowan
Rosario
Bush

Out of curiosity, when is McGowan supposed to be pitching again??

I heard mid to late 05. Any truth to this?

Out of curiosity, when is McGowan supposed to be pitching again??

I heard mid to late 05. Any truth to this?

In the interview with Dick Scott he states that McGowan would like to be ready for opening day, but it could be May before he's ready. So right now it looks more like early (Apr/May) '05.

I could see Byrd commanding somewhere in the $3 million range for a one year deal or perhaps $5 million for two years. He's aging and has a history of injuries. That said, he's not a fireballer so he doesn't have to worry too much about losing notches off the ol' fastball.

How about Graham Koonce as a cheap alternative for 1B/DH. He has power potential and has never been given a real shot in the majors. Plus he's an A's farmhand so you know he's available to the Jays... He's old though so he would only be a stopgap measure until a 1B prospect is ready.

"In the interview with Dick Scott he states that McGowan would like to be ready for opening day, but it could be May before he's ready. So right now it looks more like early (Apr/May) '05."

- Ya I Read that right after i posted the question lol. Thanks though. Certainly some good news. Fantastic peice if anyone hasn't read the interview, I highly recommend it.

I'd figure on Byrd falling somewhere between $2 or $3 million this offseason. I worry about his homer rate considering he'd be pitching at SkyDome, but he did survive Kauffman.

Mike I liked your list, but I noticed no Lilly or Frasor

My theory on Lilly, for what it's worth, is this. He's signed for $3.1 million in 2005, and will be arb-eligible in 2006. If he performs well in 2005, he'll be prohibitively expensive in 2006 and he is likely to be moved. If he does not, the Jays have other lower cost good options.

I see Chulk/Frasor as very similar. I expect one to make the adaptation to the middle relief role; Chulk is my pick from his starting experience, but you certainly could make a good argument for Frasor.

These are all guesses. Rosario did not make my list, but he might very well be the best starter on the staff in 2006.

It might be time to retire the Alex Rios - Juan Gonzalez comparisons. Rios was 23 this year and hit 1 home run in a lengthy big-league debut. At 23, Gonzalez crushed 46 home runs, his second consecutive 40-HR season, and was already over 100 homers for his career. Continuing that comparison is only going to embarrass Alex.

Rios will develop power -- strength and muscle gain will help, as will the confidence to pull the ball more often -- but I don't think he'll ever be a true slugger. Vernon is good for about 25-30 dingers a year, and that might be where Alex ends up eventually.

Hey guys, I'm visiting Toronto this weekend for a friend's wedding. Darn him - if he got married last week, I would've been able to attend a couple Blue Jays/Yankees games AND Saturday's Cal/USC game but oh well. I usually only get to see the Jays when they come out west.

So I was wondering if anyone could recommend some sports bars or other places downtown (the wedding's in the morning but the reception is dinner at the Marriott at Eaton Centre) where I may be able to catch the USC/Cal college football game (along with the MLB playoffs, of course).

Any help would be appreciated. Thanks!

Gretzky's should have baseball, but I don't of any places that would have college football. You might get lucky though.

It might be time to retire the Alex Rios - Juan Gonzalez comparisons

It always struck me as a poor comparison. Alex has a different skill set. Better D, better ability to make contact, more speed, less power than Juan Gone as a young player. The comparison in the long run will in my view be unflattering to Alex, who stands a good chance of being a fine well-rounded player in his 30s.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gonzalu01.shtml
Personally I could see Rios taking on a more Luis Gonzalez-type career, without the 57-homer abnormality. COMN for his stats. More so than Juan Gonzalez anyway.

Mike you raise the point about Lilly being "prohibitively expensive in 2006 and he is likely to be moved."

I agree Lilly will get a good boost in arbitration.

BUT... I think there are different levels of economic strength among teams... there are NY, Bos etc. who have (more or less) unlimited resources...then at the bottom there are teams that can only afford to keep their young stars untill they become arbitration eligible...then there are teams like TO who (IMHO) fall into the category where we can afford to keep young stars EVEN to the end of their arbitration years. We just can't afford to keep them when they reach their free agency years.

This means we get our own prospects for 6 years once they hit the bigs (assuming we want them that long.)

So, IMHO we can afford Lilly in 06.

Mike, puttiing Lilly aside, do you agree we have enough resources as a team to keep most of our young stars for the full 6 years before free agency?

What concerns me about Rios is his penchant for beating the ball into the ground. Is this something that can be reversed? Are there players out there who started with extreme GB/FB ratios and managed turn that around?

If Rios Developes into a 20/25 dinger guy, I don't think anyone can complain about that. I just hope it happens in the next couple years in time to bring the World Series back to Toronto in 06.
What do ya think? Ah? Ah? Ya me neither...

"What concerns me about Rios is his penchant for beating the ball into the ground. Is this something that can be reversed? Are there players out there who started with extreme GB/FB ratios and managed turn that around?"

- Good question. Someone should figure that out if no one has yet.

Also, They should offer a baseball stats course in university. You get to learn most of the significant statistical princibles, but with a greater appreciation to the real world application of them.

Who knows, maybe they'll start offering it in 06, same year the Jays win the World Series ...

I agree about Gonzalez being an inappropriate comparison. Unfortunately this past weekend J.P. himself compared Rios to Gonzalez.He did however say , that Mike Barnett compares him to this fellow .

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/columnists/askba.html
BA says the Jays pick 6th and they give a list of the top ten prospects for next June's draft COMN

Interestingly, Wade Townsend is #6 on the list. I wonder if he will be a more reasonable sign after sitting out a year (if in fact he really can't sign with Baltimore)?

There is a long ways to go obviously...

http://aaronreynolds.ca/gallery/Baseball/O_Dog_2_crop
COMN for a preview of what I shot at the final home game of the year.

Sweet....

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/04_aflcentral.html
AFL stats and boxscores are now available at BA. COMN

The inestimable King kaufman reports in Slate:
"Astros-Red Sox would be the first World Series ever to involve teams from the same states as two major[U.S.] presidential candidates."

I may have just found the only possible way I can root for a Red Sox Series title.

then there are teams like TO who (IMHO) fall into the category where we can afford to keep young stars EVEN to the end of their arbitration years. We just can't afford to keep them when they reach their free agency years.

The final year of arbitration is typically about what a player would get as an UFA. The main benefit economically is that you can sign them to a one year deal.

AFL stats and boxscores are now available at BA. COMN

As I suspected it looks like Big Vito will be a backup in the AFL this year.

Both Hattig and Hill started at 3B and SS respectively.

Pistol, what is an UFA? In baseball there are only FAs.

Did anyone else read Richard Griffin's piece on his "dream" World Series matchups?

All of his favourite scenarios involved the Yankees or Red Sox and someone, and among his least-favourite scenarios were ones like Twins-Astros, Angels-Astros, etc...

Am I the only who would have found a reverse of his list much more suitable? There's some drama in a Yankees-Astros World Series I guess, but I'd much rather watch the Twins.

With Hazel gone, does this mean that the show known as J-Zone will not return in any capacity next year?

With Hazel gone, does this mean that the show known as J-Zone will not return in any capacity next year?

Hazel wasn't the first host (anyone else remember Ashley Herrod?) and hopefully won't be the last. Get your application in Jobu!

I did! I went in and handed in my resume to Ted Rogers himself! Then his goons threw me out and dropped an anvil on my head. Luckily I was carrying an umberella at the time.

Just out of curiosity, anyone know what nationality Hazel is? And don't say Red Sox :-)

She's Canadian.

Okay, I blew it, what racial origin (s) has she?

Ethnic background is the term you're looking for. AFAIK, she's of Filipino descent.

Thank you, Robert. You're a scholar and a gentleman.

MatO: "Are there players out there who started with extreme GB/FB ratios and managed [to] turn that around?"

Derek Jeter

1997 G/F: 3.00
2004 G/F: 1.94

This actually isn't a great example, because Jeter still hit 10 dingers in 1997. But it's proof that you can "turn that around."

Sorry, Jeter's G/F this year was actually 1.49, not 1.94.

How about Hideki Matsui?

2003 G/F: 2.17
2004 G/F: 1.09

GIDP's also got cut in half from 25 to 11. HR's doubled from 16 to 31.

Rios' G/F was 2.42, basically Suzuki's average over the past 4 years. It's fine and well if you can hit .339, but...