Most people in these parts are assuming that Carlos Delgado will be elsewhere in 2005. While I haven't given up hope yet, I'm pretty much assuming that too. This leads to the next question: where will he go?
To try to answer this question, I took a look at what the other teams have at first base, and their contract status, and then estimated the probability of their trying to pursue Delgado.
Salary data is from this site; it's a bit out of date, but I think it's still accurate. (I'm not sure about the Cubs' situation, though.)
American League
Anaheim: They have Darin Erstad locked up until 2006. He isn't particularly good, but they like him. They do have money to throw around, though, and are trying to collect star Latino players. Pursuit probability: Low to Medium
Baltimore: They have Palmeiro at first, whom they just signed this year. But Raffy's older than dirt, and they don't have a DH. They also have oodles of money to spend. Pursuit probability: High
Boston: They have Mientkiewicz, Millar, and Ortiz sharing 1B/DH roles. Millar could move to the outfield, but that's still a lot of bodies. That won't stop the Sox from going after Carlos, but it will mean that they won't be desperate about it. Pursuit probability: Medium
Chicago White Sox: Konerko is signed for one more year, and Thomas is on mutual option. Delgado isn't really a good fit here. Pursuit probability: Low to Medium
Cleveland: They're not at the point in their success cycle where they need him. Pursuit probability: Low
Detroit: See Cleveland. The Tigers already have Carlos Pena. Pursuit probability: Low
Kansas City: They're committed to a long-term deal for Sweeney, and they already have Harvey. They also don't like to spend money. Pursuit probability: Low
Minnesota: They have Justin Morneau and a phalanx of young hitters. Plus they can't afford him. Pursuit probability: Low
New York Yankees: They won't go after Delgado unless they dump Giambi. I don't think even George Steinbrenner would want to have both Delgado and Giambi on his payroll. Still, it's the Yankees, so you never know. Pursuit probability: Medium
Oakland: They have Hatteberg, and don't have much money. Pursuit probability: Low
Seattle: They're at the bottom of their success cycle. I don't see this happening. Pursuit probability: Low
Tampa Bay: Tino becomes a free agent after 2004, but I don't think the D-Rays have much money to spend. And why would Carlos go to one of the few teams as bad as or worse than the Jays? Pursuit probability: Low
Texas: They have Teixeira, so Carlos would have to be willing to DH most of the time. I doubt he'll want to do that. Pursuit probability: Low to Medium
National League
Arizona: I can't see Delgado wanting to go here, unless the Snakes go absolutely nuts with their contract offer. Pursuit probability: Low
Atlanta: They're platooning Franco and LaRoche, so they have room, and they'll probably have the money. They win a lot, which might appeal to Delgado. A definite contender for his signature. Pursuit probability: High
Chicago Cubs: They're probably pretty happy with Lee. But is he eligible for free agency? Pursuit probability: Medium
Cincinnati: Don't have the money. Pursuit probability: Low
Colorado: Are committed to spending a zillion dollars on Todd Helton. Pursuit probability: Low
Florida: Could use a new first baseman. Not sure they're willing to pony up enough cash. Pursuit probability: Medium
Houston: Are committed to Jeff Bagwell. Pursuit probability: Low
Los Angeles: They have Choi and Green. Would probably still be willing to sign Carlos, but it's not a desperate priority for them. Pursuit probability: Medium
Milwaukee: Erm... no. Pursuit probability: Low
Montreal: Don't be silly. Pursuit probability: Low
New York Mets: Have been playing Phillips, Piazza and Zeile at first. This is exactly the sort of player the Mets love to sign. I don't think Carlos would want to come here, though. Pursuit probability: Medium
Philadelphia: They've got Thome. Enough said. Pursuit probability: Low
Pittsburgh: Could use another bat, but don't have the money. Pursuit probability: Low
St. Louis: There's this guy named Pujols. I've heard he's pretty good. Pursuit probability: Low
San Diego: They have Phil Nevin, and they don't have a lot of money. Pursuit probability: Low
San Francisco: They're playing J.T. Snow and Pedro Feliz. Enough said. Pursuit probability: High
Conclusion?
According to this brief and unscientific study, there are only three teams highly likely to pursue Delgado, and another five teams rated as "Medium", including the Yankees and Red Sox.
Of the High teams, Baltimore is only a likely possibility if Carlos wants to maximize his dollars (and there's no reason why he shouldn't do this). They're not likely to win anything in 2005. The Braves win every year, of course, and the Giants usually come close, so they're legitimate candidates.
Of the Medium teams: the Sox and Yanks might pursue Delgado just because they can (or because they don't want the other one to get him). The Marlins aren't exactly an exciting team. The Cubs are an interesting choice – they're contending, and they're in a hitter-friendly park. (Can you imagine Carlos in Wrigley? Whoo-eee.) The Dodgers are a contending team, and Carlos would get to play with his buddy Shawn Green, so they could be in the running. The Mets are... well, they're the Mets, and they're not going anywhere any time soon.
So, realistically, Carlos's likely destinations, in order of probability, are: Atlanta, San Francisco, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Chicago Cubs, Boston, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Florida, Anaheim, Chicago White Sox, Texas. Everybody else is off the radar.
What about Toronto? I think that the Jays will try to sign him, and it's not as if he's said that he doesn't want to play here, so his situation is different from those of Clemens, Wells, and Green. At some point, Rogers might decide that they might be better off financially with Delgado in the fold than to risk losing a large part of their fan base if he leaves. It's all well and good to say that one player shouldn't consume most of a team's financial resources, but there aren't many players as good as Delgado around, or available for next year. I assume, though, that J.P. and Keith Law have spent a lot of time working on possible scenarios, though, so they've got better data to work with than I do.
Comments?
To try to answer this question, I took a look at what the other teams have at first base, and their contract status, and then estimated the probability of their trying to pursue Delgado.
Salary data is from this site; it's a bit out of date, but I think it's still accurate. (I'm not sure about the Cubs' situation, though.)
American League
Anaheim: They have Darin Erstad locked up until 2006. He isn't particularly good, but they like him. They do have money to throw around, though, and are trying to collect star Latino players. Pursuit probability: Low to Medium
Baltimore: They have Palmeiro at first, whom they just signed this year. But Raffy's older than dirt, and they don't have a DH. They also have oodles of money to spend. Pursuit probability: High
Boston: They have Mientkiewicz, Millar, and Ortiz sharing 1B/DH roles. Millar could move to the outfield, but that's still a lot of bodies. That won't stop the Sox from going after Carlos, but it will mean that they won't be desperate about it. Pursuit probability: Medium
Chicago White Sox: Konerko is signed for one more year, and Thomas is on mutual option. Delgado isn't really a good fit here. Pursuit probability: Low to Medium
Cleveland: They're not at the point in their success cycle where they need him. Pursuit probability: Low
Detroit: See Cleveland. The Tigers already have Carlos Pena. Pursuit probability: Low
Kansas City: They're committed to a long-term deal for Sweeney, and they already have Harvey. They also don't like to spend money. Pursuit probability: Low
Minnesota: They have Justin Morneau and a phalanx of young hitters. Plus they can't afford him. Pursuit probability: Low
New York Yankees: They won't go after Delgado unless they dump Giambi. I don't think even George Steinbrenner would want to have both Delgado and Giambi on his payroll. Still, it's the Yankees, so you never know. Pursuit probability: Medium
Oakland: They have Hatteberg, and don't have much money. Pursuit probability: Low
Seattle: They're at the bottom of their success cycle. I don't see this happening. Pursuit probability: Low
Tampa Bay: Tino becomes a free agent after 2004, but I don't think the D-Rays have much money to spend. And why would Carlos go to one of the few teams as bad as or worse than the Jays? Pursuit probability: Low
Texas: They have Teixeira, so Carlos would have to be willing to DH most of the time. I doubt he'll want to do that. Pursuit probability: Low to Medium
National League
Arizona: I can't see Delgado wanting to go here, unless the Snakes go absolutely nuts with their contract offer. Pursuit probability: Low
Atlanta: They're platooning Franco and LaRoche, so they have room, and they'll probably have the money. They win a lot, which might appeal to Delgado. A definite contender for his signature. Pursuit probability: High
Chicago Cubs: They're probably pretty happy with Lee. But is he eligible for free agency? Pursuit probability: Medium
Cincinnati: Don't have the money. Pursuit probability: Low
Colorado: Are committed to spending a zillion dollars on Todd Helton. Pursuit probability: Low
Florida: Could use a new first baseman. Not sure they're willing to pony up enough cash. Pursuit probability: Medium
Houston: Are committed to Jeff Bagwell. Pursuit probability: Low
Los Angeles: They have Choi and Green. Would probably still be willing to sign Carlos, but it's not a desperate priority for them. Pursuit probability: Medium
Milwaukee: Erm... no. Pursuit probability: Low
Montreal: Don't be silly. Pursuit probability: Low
New York Mets: Have been playing Phillips, Piazza and Zeile at first. This is exactly the sort of player the Mets love to sign. I don't think Carlos would want to come here, though. Pursuit probability: Medium
Philadelphia: They've got Thome. Enough said. Pursuit probability: Low
Pittsburgh: Could use another bat, but don't have the money. Pursuit probability: Low
St. Louis: There's this guy named Pujols. I've heard he's pretty good. Pursuit probability: Low
San Diego: They have Phil Nevin, and they don't have a lot of money. Pursuit probability: Low
San Francisco: They're playing J.T. Snow and Pedro Feliz. Enough said. Pursuit probability: High
Conclusion?
According to this brief and unscientific study, there are only three teams highly likely to pursue Delgado, and another five teams rated as "Medium", including the Yankees and Red Sox.
Of the High teams, Baltimore is only a likely possibility if Carlos wants to maximize his dollars (and there's no reason why he shouldn't do this). They're not likely to win anything in 2005. The Braves win every year, of course, and the Giants usually come close, so they're legitimate candidates.
Of the Medium teams: the Sox and Yanks might pursue Delgado just because they can (or because they don't want the other one to get him). The Marlins aren't exactly an exciting team. The Cubs are an interesting choice – they're contending, and they're in a hitter-friendly park. (Can you imagine Carlos in Wrigley? Whoo-eee.) The Dodgers are a contending team, and Carlos would get to play with his buddy Shawn Green, so they could be in the running. The Mets are... well, they're the Mets, and they're not going anywhere any time soon.
So, realistically, Carlos's likely destinations, in order of probability, are: Atlanta, San Francisco, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Chicago Cubs, Boston, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Florida, Anaheim, Chicago White Sox, Texas. Everybody else is off the radar.
What about Toronto? I think that the Jays will try to sign him, and it's not as if he's said that he doesn't want to play here, so his situation is different from those of Clemens, Wells, and Green. At some point, Rogers might decide that they might be better off financially with Delgado in the fold than to risk losing a large part of their fan base if he leaves. It's all well and good to say that one player shouldn't consume most of a team's financial resources, but there aren't many players as good as Delgado around, or available for next year. I assume, though, that J.P. and Keith Law have spent a lot of time working on possible scenarios, though, so they've got better data to work with than I do.
Comments?
