Toronto takes on a struggling and desperate Ranger squad now on the fringe of the AL West division race. Texas won ten games in a stretch of fourteen in August; meanwhile, Oakland, Anaheim and Boston each won thirteen of fourteen. Losing three games in the standings while playing .714 ball seems to have sucked some energy out of the Rangers, as they have lost nine of the last eleven. The Jays have the opportunity to drive a few more nails into the Ranger coffin before Texas finishes the season with twenty straight against division rivals.
On to the Advance Scout!
* While the Rangers probably won’t be playing past October 3, four of their minor-league affiliates are enjoying the postseason right now. AAA Oklahoma defeated the Iowa Cubs Thursday night 4-2 to knot the best-of-five at one game apiece. AA Frisco swept former affiliate Tulsa and will challenge the Round Rock Express for the Texas League championship. High-A Stockton is tied at one in its battle with San Jose. Low-A Clinton swept its best-of-three against Cedar Rapids and moves into the second round to face Peoria or Kane County in the Midwest League playoffs.
* Toronto will not have the pleasure of facing John “Way Back” Wasdin or rookie Chris Young over the weekend. They will face the top of the rotation, such as it is.
* Ryan Drese takes the mound Friday night. Drese had an ERA of 3.35 in mid-August but has suffered through three consecutive subpar starts, allowing sixteen runs in sixteen innings. Never a strikeout master at the big-league level, Drese finally acknowledged as much in 2004 and relies heavily on a terrific sinker that hitters pound into the dirt in front of home plate. Drese has a wonderful ground-fly ratio of 2.35 and has been quite successful despite striking out fewer than four per nine innings. Does his four-plus months of success portend his future? Texas has considered offering him a long-term contract and must decide whether Drese really has taken a permanent step forward.
* Drese’s performance has taken some of the bitterness off the trade that sent Travis Hafner to the Indians. Following the 2002 season, Texas sent Hafner and pitcher Aaron Myette to the Tribe for catcher Einar Diaz and Drese. Diaz batted about as well as anyone not named John Hart would have expected, while Hafner currently offers an OPS of .987. Hart can spin the trade however he wants, but the fact is that Drese was a throw-in (along with Myette) who didn’t garner more than a passing mention in the newspapers at the time. That Drese magically transformed into a competent pitcher doesn’t give Hart a free pass.
* I can’t find the quote online, but I remember Bill Bavasi (or perhaps Bob Melvin) deriding those who criticized Scott Spiezio’s poor performance, saying that judging him was premature because he had a three-year contract. By that logic, I suppose the jury is still out on Chan Ho Park, currently finishing the third year of his five-year deal. Park will start Saturday night. He performed admirably in his first two starts off the Disabled List but reverted to his all-too-familiar wretchedness Monday night.
* Sunday brings the ageless Kenny Rogers. Rogers isn’t gifted at keeping the ball in the park, doesn’t strikeout many batters, and allows a .290 average against him. On the other hand, he’s not terrible at anything, either. In Texas, that makes him the ace. Texas generously bestowed a two-year contract on a pitcher who will turn 40 in November, but so far he has earned his keep. 200 innings of league-average ERA is easily worth $2.5 million on this squad.
* Texas has struggled since the All-Star break, winning 26 and losing 27 despite playing 31 of those games at home. Ah, the weak pitching finally caught up with them, you say. Actually, Texas has a 4.33 ERA since the break, good for 4th-best in the American League.
I’ll let that sink in.
The rotation has performed as expected since the break (17-23, 5.13 ERA). Its duty is to keep the team in the game, not necessarily to win it. Texas relies heavily on a retooled bullpen, which has a 9-4 record and 3.13 ERA since the break. Francisco Cordero, Ron Mahay, and Frankie Francisco all have sub-2.00 ERAs during this span.
The real culprit in the second-half demise is the allegedly awe-inspiring Ranger offense. Before the All-Star break, Texas batted .280/.340/.477 and led the AL in runs scored. Since the break, Texas is batting .241/.309/.424 and is 12th in the AL in OPS and 11th in runs scored. Teams can thrive despite a ragtag rotation; Texas won 95 games in 1999 with no regular starter posting an ERA below 4.79. That team featured a tremendous bullpen and hit the cover off the ball all season long. Now, half of that equation is missing, and as a result they trail Oakland by six games.
* Whither Hank Blalock? On U.S. Independence Day, Blalock sported a line of .314/.377/.594. Since then, his line resembles a kryptonite-laden Rob Deer:
Back in August, the local daily quoted two scouts claiming that Blalock look tired. Tired or not, Blalock is a major reason why Texas has faltered of late. Buck Showalter gave Hammerin’ Hank Thursday night off against lefty Mark Buehrle in favor of Manny Alexander.
* Speaking of Manny, there are exactly two differences between him and Neifi Perez. One, Perez began his career in the ultimate hitter’s paradise, Denver Colorado. Two, the general managers of Colorado, Kansas City and San Francisco either didn’t know or didn’t care about Point One. Alexander’s career line away from Coors field: .231/.281/.324. Perez’s line away from Coors Field: .239/.276/.320. Perez has earned about $9 million more than Alexander over his career by virtue of location and some blinkered GMs.
* The American League Rookie of the Month for August was Ranger reliever Frankie Francisco, acquired for Carl Everett from the White Sox last July. The 24-year-old had never pitched above AA before joining the team in May but has adapted quite well, posting a 3.17 ERA and striking out 57 in 48.1 innings. Texas gets to pay him minimum wage for the next two years. Josh Rupe, another Everett acquisition, won Game Two of Frisco’s series with Tulsa Wednesday night.
* Texas has no significant September call-ups. Catcher Ken Huckaby rejoined the team, utility guy Andy Fox makes sure the regulars have plenty of Gatorade and sunflower seeds, and DH Herbert Perry and pitcher Joaquin Benoit vacated the DL. Texas’s one legitimate hitting prospect in AAA, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, is wrapped up in the Pacific Coast League playoffs at the moment. With Mark Teixeira manning first, Gonzalez’s presence isn’t a necessity. AAA pitcher Kameron Loe could enter the rotation mix next spring.
* Not a single Ranger occupies the 15-day Disabled List at the moment. Texas has eight players stashed on the 60-day DL (which doesn’t count against the 40-man roster): OF Rusty Greer, DH Brad Fullmer, and pitchers Mickey Callaway, Ricardo Rodriguez, Jay Powell, Juan Dominguez, Colby Lewis, and Jeff Zimmerman. Zimmerman will complete his three-year, $10 million contract without throwing a single pitch in a regular-season game. Only Rodriguez, Lewis and Dominguez will have room on the 40-man roster in 2005.
* Along with starting pitching, Texas needs another outfield bat for 2005. Manager Buck Showalter has gotten all he can out of a patchwork, platoon-heavy outfield rotation of Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix, David Dellucci, Gary Matthews Jr., and Brian Jordan. Jordan has a $4 million 2005 option that Texas will ponder for about three milliseconds before declining. Matthews has batted above expectations (.272/.348/.459) and provided sparkling defense, but his history suggests he’ll revert to the .720 OPS days of yore. He would make a respectable fourth outfielder.
* On May 23, Laynce Nix had a 1.029 OPS and eight homers. Since then, he has three homers and his OPS stands at .766 which includes an on-base percentage of .303, unacceptable for all but the most spectacular of defensive center fielders (and perhaps not even then). Nix won’t hit age 24 until October, but his career OBP of .297 and inability to hit lefties probably already has Ranger management wondering about his long-term future.
* Catcher Rod Barajas enjoyed brief fame as a fantasy-ball darling with his ten homers and thirty RBI in May and June. Since then, he’s batted like, well, like Rod Barajas: .199/.226/.319 including one walk per 28 plate appearances. Texas has little choice but to start him, as former starter Gerald Laird has batted far worse (four hits in 51 at-bats) since recovering from a torn thumb ligament.
* Ryan Glynn? Do my eyes deceive me? Texas drafted Glynn in the 4th round of the 1995 draft, and in 1999, he was a Ranger farmhand in an AAA rotation that included up-and-comers Doug Davis, Danny Kolb, Corey Lee, and Matt Perisho. Glynn debuted with 55 dreadful innings for Texas in 1999. Two grim seasons later, Glynn had a career ERA of 6.42 and an ERA+ of 77, and Texas cut him loose. Three years and four organizations later, he starts against the team that signed him.
Batting vs. Righties:
SS Michael Young
3B Hank Blalock
2B Alfonso Soriano
1B Mark Teixeira
LF David Dellucci
DH Brian Jordan
CF Laynce Nix
RF Kevin Mench
C Rod Barajas
6-7-8 could also be DH Mench, CF Nix, and RF Gary Matthews if Matthews’s calf has healed.
All Toronto’s starters are right-handed.
Pitching Probables:
Friday: Ryan Drese vs. Miguel Batista
Saturday: Chan Ho Park vs. Ryan Glynn
Sunday: Kenny Rogers (L) vs. David Bush
Bullpen:
Closer: Francisco Cordero
Setup: Carlos Almanzar, Ron Mahay, Frankie Francisco
Short: Brian Shouse, Erasmo Ramirez, Jeff Nelson
Long: R.A. Dickey, Joaquin Benoit, Doug Brocail
On to the Advance Scout!
* While the Rangers probably won’t be playing past October 3, four of their minor-league affiliates are enjoying the postseason right now. AAA Oklahoma defeated the Iowa Cubs Thursday night 4-2 to knot the best-of-five at one game apiece. AA Frisco swept former affiliate Tulsa and will challenge the Round Rock Express for the Texas League championship. High-A Stockton is tied at one in its battle with San Jose. Low-A Clinton swept its best-of-three against Cedar Rapids and moves into the second round to face Peoria or Kane County in the Midwest League playoffs.
* Toronto will not have the pleasure of facing John “Way Back” Wasdin or rookie Chris Young over the weekend. They will face the top of the rotation, such as it is.
* Ryan Drese takes the mound Friday night. Drese had an ERA of 3.35 in mid-August but has suffered through three consecutive subpar starts, allowing sixteen runs in sixteen innings. Never a strikeout master at the big-league level, Drese finally acknowledged as much in 2004 and relies heavily on a terrific sinker that hitters pound into the dirt in front of home plate. Drese has a wonderful ground-fly ratio of 2.35 and has been quite successful despite striking out fewer than four per nine innings. Does his four-plus months of success portend his future? Texas has considered offering him a long-term contract and must decide whether Drese really has taken a permanent step forward.
* Drese’s performance has taken some of the bitterness off the trade that sent Travis Hafner to the Indians. Following the 2002 season, Texas sent Hafner and pitcher Aaron Myette to the Tribe for catcher Einar Diaz and Drese. Diaz batted about as well as anyone not named John Hart would have expected, while Hafner currently offers an OPS of .987. Hart can spin the trade however he wants, but the fact is that Drese was a throw-in (along with Myette) who didn’t garner more than a passing mention in the newspapers at the time. That Drese magically transformed into a competent pitcher doesn’t give Hart a free pass.
* I can’t find the quote online, but I remember Bill Bavasi (or perhaps Bob Melvin) deriding those who criticized Scott Spiezio’s poor performance, saying that judging him was premature because he had a three-year contract. By that logic, I suppose the jury is still out on Chan Ho Park, currently finishing the third year of his five-year deal. Park will start Saturday night. He performed admirably in his first two starts off the Disabled List but reverted to his all-too-familiar wretchedness Monday night.
* Sunday brings the ageless Kenny Rogers. Rogers isn’t gifted at keeping the ball in the park, doesn’t strikeout many batters, and allows a .290 average against him. On the other hand, he’s not terrible at anything, either. In Texas, that makes him the ace. Texas generously bestowed a two-year contract on a pitcher who will turn 40 in November, but so far he has earned his keep. 200 innings of league-average ERA is easily worth $2.5 million on this squad.
* Texas has struggled since the All-Star break, winning 26 and losing 27 despite playing 31 of those games at home. Ah, the weak pitching finally caught up with them, you say. Actually, Texas has a 4.33 ERA since the break, good for 4th-best in the American League.
I’ll let that sink in.
The rotation has performed as expected since the break (17-23, 5.13 ERA). Its duty is to keep the team in the game, not necessarily to win it. Texas relies heavily on a retooled bullpen, which has a 9-4 record and 3.13 ERA since the break. Francisco Cordero, Ron Mahay, and Frankie Francisco all have sub-2.00 ERAs during this span.
The real culprit in the second-half demise is the allegedly awe-inspiring Ranger offense. Before the All-Star break, Texas batted .280/.340/.477 and led the AL in runs scored. Since the break, Texas is batting .241/.309/.424 and is 12th in the AL in OPS and 11th in runs scored. Teams can thrive despite a ragtag rotation; Texas won 95 games in 1999 with no regular starter posting an ERA below 4.79. That team featured a tremendous bullpen and hit the cover off the ball all season long. Now, half of that equation is missing, and as a result they trail Oakland by six games.
* Whither Hank Blalock? On U.S. Independence Day, Blalock sported a line of .314/.377/.594. Since then, his line resembles a kryptonite-laden Rob Deer:
SPAN G AVG OBP SLG R HR RBI BB SO
>7/04 57 .194 .315 .350 27 7 32 33 53
Back in August, the local daily quoted two scouts claiming that Blalock look tired. Tired or not, Blalock is a major reason why Texas has faltered of late. Buck Showalter gave Hammerin’ Hank Thursday night off against lefty Mark Buehrle in favor of Manny Alexander.
* Speaking of Manny, there are exactly two differences between him and Neifi Perez. One, Perez began his career in the ultimate hitter’s paradise, Denver Colorado. Two, the general managers of Colorado, Kansas City and San Francisco either didn’t know or didn’t care about Point One. Alexander’s career line away from Coors field: .231/.281/.324. Perez’s line away from Coors Field: .239/.276/.320. Perez has earned about $9 million more than Alexander over his career by virtue of location and some blinkered GMs.
* The American League Rookie of the Month for August was Ranger reliever Frankie Francisco, acquired for Carl Everett from the White Sox last July. The 24-year-old had never pitched above AA before joining the team in May but has adapted quite well, posting a 3.17 ERA and striking out 57 in 48.1 innings. Texas gets to pay him minimum wage for the next two years. Josh Rupe, another Everett acquisition, won Game Two of Frisco’s series with Tulsa Wednesday night.
* Texas has no significant September call-ups. Catcher Ken Huckaby rejoined the team, utility guy Andy Fox makes sure the regulars have plenty of Gatorade and sunflower seeds, and DH Herbert Perry and pitcher Joaquin Benoit vacated the DL. Texas’s one legitimate hitting prospect in AAA, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, is wrapped up in the Pacific Coast League playoffs at the moment. With Mark Teixeira manning first, Gonzalez’s presence isn’t a necessity. AAA pitcher Kameron Loe could enter the rotation mix next spring.
* Not a single Ranger occupies the 15-day Disabled List at the moment. Texas has eight players stashed on the 60-day DL (which doesn’t count against the 40-man roster): OF Rusty Greer, DH Brad Fullmer, and pitchers Mickey Callaway, Ricardo Rodriguez, Jay Powell, Juan Dominguez, Colby Lewis, and Jeff Zimmerman. Zimmerman will complete his three-year, $10 million contract without throwing a single pitch in a regular-season game. Only Rodriguez, Lewis and Dominguez will have room on the 40-man roster in 2005.
* Along with starting pitching, Texas needs another outfield bat for 2005. Manager Buck Showalter has gotten all he can out of a patchwork, platoon-heavy outfield rotation of Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix, David Dellucci, Gary Matthews Jr., and Brian Jordan. Jordan has a $4 million 2005 option that Texas will ponder for about three milliseconds before declining. Matthews has batted above expectations (.272/.348/.459) and provided sparkling defense, but his history suggests he’ll revert to the .720 OPS days of yore. He would make a respectable fourth outfielder.
* On May 23, Laynce Nix had a 1.029 OPS and eight homers. Since then, he has three homers and his OPS stands at .766 which includes an on-base percentage of .303, unacceptable for all but the most spectacular of defensive center fielders (and perhaps not even then). Nix won’t hit age 24 until October, but his career OBP of .297 and inability to hit lefties probably already has Ranger management wondering about his long-term future.
* Catcher Rod Barajas enjoyed brief fame as a fantasy-ball darling with his ten homers and thirty RBI in May and June. Since then, he’s batted like, well, like Rod Barajas: .199/.226/.319 including one walk per 28 plate appearances. Texas has little choice but to start him, as former starter Gerald Laird has batted far worse (four hits in 51 at-bats) since recovering from a torn thumb ligament.
* Ryan Glynn? Do my eyes deceive me? Texas drafted Glynn in the 4th round of the 1995 draft, and in 1999, he was a Ranger farmhand in an AAA rotation that included up-and-comers Doug Davis, Danny Kolb, Corey Lee, and Matt Perisho. Glynn debuted with 55 dreadful innings for Texas in 1999. Two grim seasons later, Glynn had a career ERA of 6.42 and an ERA+ of 77, and Texas cut him loose. Three years and four organizations later, he starts against the team that signed him.
Batting vs. Righties:
SS Michael Young
3B Hank Blalock
2B Alfonso Soriano
1B Mark Teixeira
LF David Dellucci
DH Brian Jordan
CF Laynce Nix
RF Kevin Mench
C Rod Barajas
6-7-8 could also be DH Mench, CF Nix, and RF Gary Matthews if Matthews’s calf has healed.
All Toronto’s starters are right-handed.
Pitching Probables:
Friday: Ryan Drese vs. Miguel Batista
Saturday: Chan Ho Park vs. Ryan Glynn
Sunday: Kenny Rogers (L) vs. David Bush
Bullpen:
Closer: Francisco Cordero
Setup: Carlos Almanzar, Ron Mahay, Frankie Francisco
Short: Brian Shouse, Erasmo Ramirez, Jeff Nelson
Long: R.A. Dickey, Joaquin Benoit, Doug Brocail
