Possibly the biggest difference between the National Football League and Major League Baseball is the number of games a team plays in a season. An MLB team has 162 games on its regular season schedule while an NFL team plays 16; less than 1/10th of 162. A weak NFL team can often make the playoffs with a weak schedule and a couple of lucky breaks. This leads to the question: Can a weak team like the Blue Jays make the playoffs under an NFL-style schedule?
To answer this question I took the first 128 games the Jays played this season and I broke them down into 8 16-game seasons. In each season I examined the number of games the Jays won as well as their strength of schedule. Strength of schedule in this context is the average winning percentage of the opponent given the location. If Toronto played all 16 games in Detroit, their strength-of-schedule would be .508, as that is Detroit's winning percentage at home. Thus a higher figure represents a harder schedule, with the caveat that I have not considered who was pitching for each team.
Now let's look at each season!
Strength of Schedule: .520
The Jays were awful in Season 1, going 4-12, which in most seasons would make them the worst team in the league. Last year in the NFL the Raiders, Chargers, Cardinals, and Giants all went 4-12. No team had a worse record than that. The Jays poor record cannot be blamed on the schedulemaker, as a .520 SOS is right around average for the 8 seasons.
Strength of Schedule: .472
The Jays took advantage of an easy schedule going 10-6 in Season 2. Last year in the NFL the Broncos and the Seahawks won Wild Card spots with a 10-6 record, the Packers won the NFC North while going 10-6, but the Miami Dolphins missed the playoffs with that same record. In a NFL type system the Jays likely would have made the playoffs in Season 2, but it wouldn't have been a sure thing.
Strength of Schedule: .548
The Season 3 Jays did pretty well considering their tough schedule, but a 7-9 record will not get a team into the playoffs.
Strength of Schedule: .511
Despite an easier schedule, the Season 4 Jays would not fare any better than the Season 3 version of the team.
Strength of Schedule: .461
This edition of the Jays had by far the easiest schedule of the 8, but they could not improve their record from seasons 3 and 4.
Strength of Schedule: .529
With a much tougher schedule, the Jays decline one game in the standings from the previous season.
Strength of Schedule: .521
Things are looking up a little here, as the Season 7 Jays improve a game while having a similar schedule in terms of difficulty as the season before.
Strength of Schedule: .543
The Jays get a tough schedule and fall apart, going only 5-11, making them one of the worst teams in the league.
I expected that the Jays would have been playoff contenders in more than one season. Most sports teams tend to go on a few extended winning or losing streaks and I expected the same from the Blue Jays. However, Toronto has been very consistent this year, going 7-9 or 6-10 in most 16 game seasons.
Your thoughts?
To answer this question I took the first 128 games the Jays played this season and I broke them down into 8 16-game seasons. In each season I examined the number of games the Jays won as well as their strength of schedule. Strength of schedule in this context is the average winning percentage of the opponent given the location. If Toronto played all 16 games in Detroit, their strength-of-schedule would be .508, as that is Detroit's winning percentage at home. Thus a higher figure represents a harder schedule, with the caveat that I have not considered who was pitching for each team.
Now let's look at each season!
SEASON 1 - Record 4-12
Opponents - Home: Detroit (3), Baltimore (3), Boston (3) - Away: Boston (3), Detroit (3), Baltimore (1)Strength of Schedule: .520
The Jays were awful in Season 1, going 4-12, which in most seasons would make them the worst team in the league. Last year in the NFL the Raiders, Chargers, Cardinals, and Giants all went 4-12. No team had a worse record than that. The Jays poor record cannot be blamed on the schedulemaker, as a .520 SOS is right around average for the 8 seasons.
SEASON 2 - Record 10-6
Opponents - Home: Kansas City (3), Chicago (3) - Away: Baltimore (2), Minnesota (3), Chicago (4), Kansas City (1)Strength of Schedule: .472
The Jays took advantage of an easy schedule going 10-6 in Season 2. Last year in the NFL the Broncos and the Seahawks won Wild Card spots with a 10-6 record, the Packers won the NFC North while going 10-6, but the Miami Dolphins missed the playoffs with that same record. In a NFL type system the Jays likely would have made the playoffs in Season 2, but it wouldn't have been a sure thing.
SEASON 3 - Record 7-9
Opponents - Home: Boston (4), Minnesota (3), Anaheim (3), Texas (1) - Away: Kansas City (2), Boston (3)Strength of Schedule: .548
The Season 3 Jays did pretty well considering their tough schedule, but a 7-9 record will not get a team into the playoffs.
SEASON 4 - Record 7-9
Opponents - Home: Texas (2), Los Angeles (3), Arizona (3) - Away: Seattle (3), Oakland (4), San Francisco (1)Strength of Schedule: .511
Despite an easier schedule, the Season 4 Jays would not fare any better than the Season 3 version of the team.
SEASON 5 - Record 7-9
Opponents - Home: Tampa Bay (3), Montreal (3) - Away: San Francisco (2), San Diego (3), Tampa Bay (4), Montreal (1)Strength of Schedule: .461
This edition of the Jays had by far the easiest schedule of the 8, but they could not improve their record from seasons 3 and 4.
SEASON 6 - Record 6-10
Opponents - Home: Seattle (3), Anaheim (3), Tampa Bay (1) - Away: Montreal (2), Texas (3), Oakland (2), New York (2)Strength of Schedule: .529
With a much tougher schedule, the Jays decline one game in the standings from the previous season.
SEASON 7 - Record 7-9
Opponents - Home: Tampa Bay (2), New York (3), Cleveland (4) - Away: Tampa Bay (3), New York (4)Strength of Schedule: .521
Things are looking up a little here, as the Season 7 Jays improve a game while having a similar schedule in terms of difficulty as the season before.
SEASON 8 - Record 5-11
Opponents - Home: Baltimore (3), Boston (3), New York (1) - Away: Cleveland (3), Boston (3), Baltimore (3)Strength of Schedule: .543
The Jays get a tough schedule and fall apart, going only 5-11, making them one of the worst teams in the league.
Conclusion
I expected that the Jays would have been playoff contenders in more than one season. Most sports teams tend to go on a few extended winning or losing streaks and I expected the same from the Blue Jays. However, Toronto has been very consistent this year, going 7-9 or 6-10 in most 16 game seasons.
Your thoughts?
