I really enjoyed myself last night. After being under the weather for weeks, I was finally well enough to go to the Dome, where it was great to see everyone again. The Moffatts, père et fils, were excellent company, and Dave Bush was terrific, especially getting out of the first-inning jam and on those last two pitches to Winn with zero margin for error.

Ichiro is amazing. His first AB, he could have put any pitch precisely where he wanted; he missed doubles down the LF line by inches on his first two swings, then singled up the middle. He can steal a base virtually at will, and made a couple of outstanding catches. Walking him intentionally in a tie game with men at first and third is the ultimate sign of respect, usually reserved for a Bonds or McGwire. That was a gutsy decision by Gibbons —- who obviously isn’t stuck on any particular page(s) of the managerial "book," but trusts his feel for the game —- and it paid off.

Gibby also managed his bullpen to perfection. Frasor was sharp in the eighth, and deserved a shot at the two-inning save. But they wisely had Speier ready, and after the Jacobsen double (note to Zaun: I wouldn’t challenge Bucky with fastballs, ever) the skipper made the right move at the right time. It was a confidence-building night for his two most important relievers.

In the other dugout, the brain trust had a couple of brain cramps. I was surprised to see Bob Melvin leave Villone in with the top of the order coming up. It appeared that he was underestimating the dangerous lefty-mashers Menechino and Wells in order to turn Hudson around and pitch to Delgado. I told Mike that the chances of Frankie or Vernon hitting something very hard that inning were much better than 50-50, and was thrilled to be correct.

The M’s also pinch-ran for Jacobsen in the ninth, which made no sense. Sure, if there were two on and he was the trail runner down by two, but he was the only runner. Why take your biggest bat out of the game? It made absolutely no difference if he didn’t score on a single (they needed two more hits or a homer) and if they had tied it up, I’d sure rather pitch to Bloomquist in extra innings than man-mountain Bucky. If Paul Molitor’s advising Melvin, he’s a long way from being ready to run a ballclub. Or perhaps his campaign manager Rich Griffin can explain that strategery.

I didn’t see the final play well, as everyone was standing, and haven’t seen a TV replay, so I have a query for those who did. I know Carlos got his bare hand on the bag in plenty of time, but did he have control of the ball in his glove? If he simply had his glove on top of the ball and it was still on the turf, the Jays got a lucky call for a change. It didn't really matter; Spy would have got the next guy.

That’s wonderful news about Doc’s imminent return. He’ll face the Yanks and D-Rays on the road, then we’ll get to see him at home in that final weekend against the Yankees, when (if the Red Sox keep playing like they have been) the Jays might just be spoilers.

I'd like to work "say it ain't so, Joe!" and something about me living in London in here but just can't find a clever way to do it.

Your friend,
Spicol (who got Aerosmith two days ago but is okay that Mick got the glory...no really)

We got spoiled with Rios' incredible first-year performance. Now with Bush tearing it up on the first-year pitching side, it's like divine repayment for the terrible year we've been having.

I won't complain.

Coach. After fumbling around for a ball that had a ton of "english" on it and may have nicked the 1st base bag, Delgado did manage to pick it up before he touched 1st with his bare hand.

Spicol is looking sharp for getting Joe Jackson's "Down to London":

200 million points for today and two days ago and a picture of Melanocetus johnsoni (Hump-back angler fish):



Kewl.

The worse 2004 is, the better 2005 will seem.

Is there any merit to that?

Nice. Thanks, Mike.

I'm simply mesmerized by that glowing, dangly, protruding thing...must go in for a closer look...

Yeah, MatO is right; Delgado had control of the ball off the ground when he crawled to the bag.

I'm simply mesmerized by that glowing, dangly, protruding thing...must go in for a closer look...

Heh.

I gotta quit this economics gig and go into deep-sea marine biology. So many cool weird looking creatures. It's like Aliens underwater.

Melanocetus johnsoni

Oh, that's what that thing is. He's got a johnson i.

Thank you, I'll be here all week...

Melanocetus johnsoni

Oh, that's what that thing is. He's got a johnson i.

I read it as Menechino johnsoni. A short dirt-dog creature that preys on left-handed pitching.

If Delgado leaves then the Jays have $19.7 million to spend on free-agent hitters. We'll bet a Diet Coke, or a Coca-Cola Lite, as they say in Athens, that Rogers Communications will not spend $19.7 million on hitters for next season.

As Mike has pointed out, Elliott's not taking into account other contracts. Here are some figures from Gwyn Price about Toronto's 2005 payroll:

Roy Halladay: $4.5M raise
Miguel Batista: $1.15M raise
Ted Lilly: $1.2M raise
Kerry Ligtenberg: $0.5M raise
Eric Hinske: $2.2M raise
Vernon Wells: $2.2M raise

Total guaranteed raises for 2005: $11.75M

The Blue Jays will save closer to $8M on Delgado's contract, and that's assuming they don't sign Orlando Hudson to a longer-term contract or pay any kind of increases to other players. This is why, amongst other reasons, Delgado isn't coming back to the Jays.

What I saw on the replay was Delgado slap his hand on the bag with his glove over the ball on the ground, then flip his glove a bit to get the ball off the ground and re-catch it just before the runner hit the bag.

What a nerve-wracking way to end the game! It was fun, though.

Thanks for the clarifcation on that play, guys.

The "Delgado is irreplaceable" columns are as predictable as snow in January. Two guys who never miss an opportunity to bash management are sowing the seeds for inevitable I-told-you-sos. Yes, it would be great if Rogers threw an unlimited amount of money at the club. It would be great if Toronto was closer to the Equator, too.

Elliott's "arguments" are laughable:

Take out Delgado's .252 average, 24 homers and 75 RBIs and how anemic will the Jays be?

This is a team that put DH Josh Phelps on waivers and dealt him to the Cleveland Indians because he couldn't hit. Phelps was leading the Jays in RBIs at the time of the deal for Eric Crozier.

Will Crozier be at first base on opening day next year or will it be Frank Catalanotto?

Gee, Bob. Where will they find a scarce commodity like a .250-24-75 first baseman? How will they ever replace a .188 hitter who whiffed in 25% of his at-bats (Phelps' contribution here this year vs. RHP) at DH? And when you ask an either-or question about next year's lineup, be sure to omit the possibilities of aquiring someone by trade or free agency. Nobody will notice.

Menechino johnsoni. A short dirt-dog creature that preys on left-handed pitching.

Pardon me while I wipe the coffee off my keyboard.

Are we going to see crozier and adams and Q in the lineup tonght?
Next year we are going to miss delgado bat not his glove that play last night almost gave me a heartattack.

The easiest way for someone to step up, considering the way the Jays revamped bullpen has performed, would be for owner Ted Rogers to expand his budget.

The easiest way to accomplish anything in this world is to spend someone else's money.

Obligatory criticism of Richard Griffin:

Unless the Jays spend some of his saved salary on a veteran replacement for '05, they are going to find they will miss [Delgado's] presence in the lineup and the clubhouse next year more than they ever imagined.

It was only a couple of years ago that Griffin would regularly attack Delgado for not being a leader in the clubhouse. There was one column in the spring of 2002 that was so rough on Delgado I actually E-Mailed Griffin to complain about it. I'm still waiting for a response from him.

As usual, Griffin is changing his tune so his position is the opposite of the team's.

So who's this easily found first basemen we're going to get?
Yesterday's discussion seemed to rule out Sexson and Glaus, so who's left? Cowboy Up? Delgado to Millar is a huge drop in production.

Yesterday's discussion seemed to rule out Sexson and Glaus, so who's left?

Sexson and Glaus. :) People seemed to think the Jays couldn't afford to take risks, which is insane. This team desperately needs risk, and lots of it.

I think tonight would be an excellent time to give some of the call-ups their debut. The Mariners are as lost as the Jays, and with so many contenders on the upcoming schedule, Toronto will need to give these youngsters as much playing time against the also-rans as possible.

That said, it's also a little like spring training: you can't keep all the stars on the bench, as it's unfair to the paying fans and the opposition. I could see Adams and Crozier starting tonight (with Delgado at DH), and I could see Quiroz catching Bush and Ryan Glynn later on, since he'll be more familiar with them. Crozier will also see some outfield time, particularly if Reed Johnson has anything problematic.

Rory, there has been no official word on the arrival of the callups, and while I agree with Jordan that tonight would be a good spot, against a Triple-A pitcher, I don't believe they will be in town yet. Speculation is that they will arrive tomorrow, so I wouldn't expect any of them to be in the lineup before the weekend. Even then, I doubt that all three will play at the same time, and keep in mind that Hudson, Mulder and Harden aren't the easiest guys to make your ML debut against.

I'd let them get their feet wet, maybe use them pinch-running or pinch-hitting or in a blowout, then give them all occasional starts on the road trip.

Craig - i totally agree with you . I say try for glaus take a risk we NEED A BAT WITH POWER next year.Who else is out there with 40 hr power that maybe we can get for 6-8 mill because of being injured the last 2 years?The market is not what is once was when delgado signed that big deal.Vlad got 12 mil a year this past year and he is top 5 player in the game.

Total guaranteed raises for 2005: $11.75M

The Blue Jays will save closer to $8M on Delgado's contract, and that's assuming they don't sign Orlando Hudson to a longer-term contract or pay any kind of increases to other players.

Raises do suck up much of the savings from Delgado's contract but there are some other areas of the roster that will result in some extra coins jangling in JP's pocket.

Free Agents (with 2003 salaries)
Delgado - $19.7M
VDLS - $850K
Myers - $900K
Berg - $700K
Gomez - $750K
Cat - $2.3M

TOTAL SAVED - $25.2M

The raises you pointed out take up $11.75M of this payroll space and small raises to players still under guaranteed contracts or eligible for arbitration will take up some of the remainder (with additional savings possibly be found in non-tendered players). But there should be at least $12MM to spend. That $12MM should be more than enough to get the 1B, DH and two bullpen arms JP has on his offseason wish list, but likely won't be enough to ensure that 1B is Delgado.

The Blue Jays will save closer to $8M on Delgado's contract, and that's assuming they don't sign Orlando Hudson to a longer-term contract or pay any kind of increases to other players. This is why, amongst other reasons, Delgado isn't coming back to the Jays.

From your logic (which seems sound to me), the Jays not only can't afford to re-sign Delgado, but can't afford to sign anyone to replace him. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I fear that the Jays are looking at another 90-95 losses for 2005, with the real improvement starting in 2006 and peaking in 2007. This may be the only way to go, but it's a long wait. :-(

And, if the Jays aren't willing to increase payroll, the other owners may get annoyed at them for taking too much revenue-sharing money.

Good point about Griffin now praising Delgado after spending a lot of time attacking him.

Gee, Bob. Where will they find a scarce commodity like a .250-24-75 first baseman?

I guess the question is whether Delgado is a .250-24-75 first baseman or whether he's going to become a .300-35-130 first baseman again now that he's healthy. I'm glad I'm not a GM, and don't have to decide such questions. :-)

Delgado is getting older, and one of the symptoms of age is that players aren't healthy as often as they used to be. Some players decline gradually (as, say, McGriff did); others retain their peak performance when healthy, but are healthy less and less often as they age. Delgado may fall into category 2.

Unfortunately, given the Jays' luck, what I fear will happen is that the Orioles will sign Delgado, and he'll be healthy and productive for a year or two (before then declining and becoming a financial millstone). Thus providing lots of column material for the more contrary-minded of Toronto's baseball writers. :-(

It was only a couple of years ago that Griffin would regularly attack Delgado for not being a leader in the clubhouse

I was thinking the same thing.

So who's this easily found first basemen we're going to get?
Yesterday's discussion seemed to rule out Sexson and Glaus, so who's left? Cowboy Up? Delgado to Millar is a huge drop in production.

Free agents aren't the only way to fill a position. The White Sox may have to make some decisions about who they do and don't want to pay. Perhaps the Jays could get Konerko.

And of course my very unlikely option - Lance Berkman.

And one more point:

That $12MM should be more than enough to get the 1B, DH and two bullpen arms JP has on his offseason wish list, but likely won't be enough to ensure that 1B is Delgado.

I fear that $12 million will not be enough to snare Delgado, but I think that the Jays might be better off to sign one big Delgado-like bat and fill the other holes with very cheap players, as opposed to spending $4 million on each of the three holes. The latter approach is the Pittsburgh way - signing people like Derek Bell and Reggie Sanders to contracts, improving by about two games as a result, but with $10 million more on their payroll.

I think the Jays, when spending, should either go big, or save the money and sign two big names when the kids are a bit more mature.

Spicol, you're quite right about the available salary room -- thanks for the correction.

Unrelated to Delgado:

Does anyone else have a feeling that Chris Carpenter will be a Yankee soon?

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Does anyone else have a feeling that Chris Carpenter will be a Yankee soon?

Why would Chris Carpenter leave the best team in baseball to join the Yankees?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I fear that the Jays are looking at another 90-95 losses for 2005, with the real improvement starting in 2006 and peaking in 2007.

I don't see this at all. The Jays look like they're starting to become more of a pitching and defense type team. If so, I think they can win without a huge bat at 1st, but Rios and Gross have to start hitting for more power.

I think that the Jays might be better off to sign one big Delgado-like bat and fill the other holes with very cheap players,

There's more risk associated with that, but like Craig said, the Jays NEED to take these kind of risks. Of course, it all depends who the players in question are and if those big bats are willing to come here.

The latter approach is the Pittsburgh way - signing people like Derek Bell and Reggie Sanders to contracts

Big difference: JP is NOT Cam Bonifay.

Ugh, Konerko? Too inconsistent.

Why would Chris Carpenter leave the best team in baseball to join the Yankees?

True enough, but something about his performance screams big contract from GS (or Moreno). St. Louis does have a club option for 2005, so never mind. I guess nobody else has the feeling. ;)

I think the Jays, when spending, should either go big, or save the money and sign two big names when the kids are a bit more mature.

I agree. Getting locked into deals beyond '05 limits the team's ability to adjust based on unpredictables- like who develops/fails to develop in the minors.

Biggest problem this year has been the offense, which should be significantly better next year. Delgado, as good as he's been lately, was pretty bad for a while. If he comes back, he'll be better. If not, they should at least be able to get production equal to what he provided this year. At DH, as much as I still think Phelps will be great some day, he was horrid with the Jays, so they should get much better production there. Hinske has been terrible this year, and if he doesn't improve next year, I think they'll work in an upgrade/replacement midway through the season, so IMO you can expect imporvement there. Vern has played banged up, and I think he'll do a lot of work this winter to adjust to some vulnerabilities in his approach. The OF has been a mess this year with the injuries- it's safe to say you won't see Dave Berg out there next season. Pushing Johnson to a 3/4 OF role will make better use of his skills. I'd bet Gross/Wells/Rios '05 will be better than what they've gotten from the patchwork this year. SS was kind of a mess this year as well. Not sure how they'll solve it, but it shouldn't be hard to improve on this year's version.

I don't think I'm being wildly optomistic in thinking they could improve their production everywhere except 2B (Hudson repeating '04 would be fine) and 1B without much effort in the offseason. Not many teams can say that, but then, not many teams performed as badly with the bat as the Jays did this year...

(Anyone know what Team MVP Frankie Menechino's contract status is? Love to see him as supersub next year- 350 AB

Frankly, I don't understand the Jays coolness to resigning Delgado? He's everything the team is looking for at this position and is a guy who actually seems to like playing in Toronto. His salary will be in the 8-12 million dollar range which is an appropriate value for such a player.

The available first base/DH options are sparse. You have top end guys like Glaus and Sexson who'll command as much money as Delgado and probably wouldn't sign here anyway.The usual mid -level type mashers such as a David Ortiz, Jose Cruz or Kevin Millar aren't out there this season. Its almost as if every G.M. has read moneyball and now understands the relative value of these secondary guys and have locked them up. There may be some non tenders at the arbitration deadline but last years experience was that when "push came to shove", most teams resigned their valuable players.

So what gives? I have implicit trust in J.P. Perhaps privately Delgado has told him he intends to leave no matter what. Maybe the team feels his chronic bad knees/back are worse than what we imagine.
Maybe we have a battle behind the scenes. I notice Godfrey is often the public spokesman for commentary regarding Delgado's re-signing.I can see this coolness as signs of an internal battle between the team and the Rogers parent corporation, "hey you guys better pony up with an increased payroll or you guys will have to face the wrath".

At any rate casually dismissing Delgado as being easily replaceable by spare parts does not compute.

Callups = tomorrow

Callups = tomorrow

This certainly was not the worst-kept secret in Toronto baseball.

Ugh, Konerko? Too inconsistent

Year	Games	ABs	Ave	Obp	Slg	GPA
1999	142	513	0.294	0.352	0.511	0.286
2000	143	524	0.298	0.363	0.481	0.284
2001	156	582	0.282	0.349	0.507	0.284
2002	151	570	0.304	0.359	0.498	0.286
2003	137	444	0.234	0.305	0.399	0.237
2004	124	443	0.273	0.357	0.528	0.293
Ave	142	513	0.281	0.348	0.487	0.278

5 out of 6 years he's been between a .284 and .293 GPA. I would say he's very consistent, he just had a bad year last year.

Unfortunately, given the Jays' luck, what I fear will happen is that the Orioles will sign Delgado, and he'll be healthy and productive for a year or two (before then declining and becoming a financial millstone). Thus providing lots of column material for the more contrary-minded of Toronto's baseball writers. :-(

I disagree... if the Orioles sign another big name, formerly big producing, but had a bad year Slugger, the it just means that Delgado is TOAST!... The Industry has learned, "Don't get into a bidding war with the Orioles cause they are chasing the wrong guy!"

hahaha..
well ok, Tejada has excelled, but I just like taking pokes at them

According to Dugout dollars "Cowboy up" Millar is not a free agent,he has a 3.5 million dollar 2005 mutual option vested with 800 PA's over 2 years which I'm sure he's met.

Expensive arbitration eligible players like a Berkman or Dunn would require the trading of prospects, such as Rios.

I guess the question is whether Delgado is a .250-24-75 first baseman or whether he's going to become a .300-35-130 first baseman again now that he's healthy.

Dave, of course he's better than this year's numbers. He's as good a hitter as he ever was. I was just pointing out that Elliott's "logic" that the 2005 offence will be more anemic without Carlos is ridiculous. Whether it's a healthy Delgado or someone new, you can bank on improved production from that position next season. This one was an anomaly from the start.

The math is pretty simple: if .300-35-130, to use your reasonable projection, costs $12 million a year, and Kevin Millar (.276-25-96 when he played a full season) gets a mere $3.5 million, the savings can be put to very good use elsewhere. There are many more candidates than the names on the FA lists, and they aren't limited to "first basemen" -- for example, a guy like Cliff Floyd might stay healthy all year as a 1B/DH, and who knows how much of his $6.5 million the Mets might pay if you gave them a trinket or two?

I hope nobody gets the impression that I want Carlos to leave. Absolutely not; I've been one of his biggest fans since he was a teenager. Delgado, willing to DH most of the time, signing for $8 million or so, with an option for 2006, would be the greatest Christmas present this Blue Jays fan could receive. Realistically, I don't expect that to happen.

Here's something you won't hear from me every day: I agree with every word in dp's last post. :)

As far as contracts go, there's also Pat Hentgen's 2.2M and Terry Adams' 1.7M to spend. The Blue Jays only have about 26M commited to next season.

At any rate casually dismissing Delgado as being easily replaceable by spare parts does not compute.

That isn't what I said- I only pointed out that replacing his production this season shouldn't be too hard. He's still been in the upper half of MLB 1B, and I expect he'll be a lot better next year, but if they can make significant gains in production elsewhere, they shouldn't miss this year's Delgado too much.

Expensive arbitration eligible players like a Berkman or Dunn would require the trading of prospects, such as Rios.

Not Dunn. The Reds already have Kearns, Griffey, and Willy Mo Pena for their outfield. What they don't have is pitching. There isn't any Jays pitching prospect I wouldn't trade for Dunn.

Wow, Kent, good call on Cliff Floyd. If he could be had with some money coming over, even a little, he'd be a fine pickup though obviously not without risk. The advantage of Floyd is that giving him some DH time might help him fight off the injury bug.

Frankly, I don't understand the Jays coolness to resigning Delgado

Anything the Jays can reasonably offer Delgado now will look insulting to Delgado.

I remember seeing JP say a month or two ago that the team can't lock into $10 million players, so I suspect the team wouldn't be able to offer more than something in the ballpark of 3 for $25. There's virtually no chance of Delgado doing that without seeing what other teams have to offer so what's the point of alienating him with an offer now?

The only chance he returns to the Jays is if there's no market for him from other teams (and when I say no market I mean anything in the $10 million range for 3-4 years).

The problem with getting Floyd is that the Mets aren't exactly in the - dumping contracts for prospects mode - witness this year's trading deadline. I would expect the Mets to continue their annual - load up with fat contracts for questionnable players - bonanza this offseason.

On Ichiro:
His recent tear reminds me of something I heard said of Rod Carew -- I think it was the young Alan Trammell who said it ... "He should be required to call his shots, like in billiards. You know, "second pitch, looping liner two feet to the left of second base."

I may be a contrarian here, but is there any sense in bringing Johnny O back for a year or two, if he's interested?

He would probably come very cheap, and I feel he still has a few decent years left in him. And it's not like the Jays have anyone knocking down the door for playing time in Toronto. Maybe Crozier, but it would be good to let him work his bat into the lineup slowly.

I agree with every word in dp's last post. :)

My Jays goggles always get a rose tint in the offseason...I guess after 10 years, I still haven't learned my lesson.

The Mets from what I've heard would give Cliff Floyd away for nothing, especially if they re-sign Hidalgo. .352/.477 in a pitcher's park, playing (of course) hurt. He's actually been better at Shea than on the road. That isn't too far off Delgado, and Floyd's problems have been in his legs, which playing the field doesn't help. He won't wear a 1B glove again, but could be a productive DH/spare OF. When his legs are OK he's actually decent in the field.

In general, Nigel, I agree. The Mets are rich and dumb. In the specific case of a mediocre left fielder owed $13 million who has missed over 50 games in his first two years there, I believe they would be thrilled to move him. I'd offer them Josh Towers (they'll need somebody when Zambrano has his TJ surgery) and a minor-league OF if they paid half the salary difference.

The problem with getting Floyd is that the Mets aren't exactly in the - dumping contracts for prospects mode

They have too many guys that are persistently injured. I think they're looking to bring back Hidalgo, and with Cameron set in CF, upgrade in LF to a superstar who's a little more consistent than Floyd. Floyd won't play 1B, and they've given up the Piazza at 1B experiment, so are looking to deal Floyd and get a 1B and corner OF.

The Mets are also planning an offseason lobotomy for Art Howe in hopes of improving his managerial skills...

"He should be required to call his shots, like in billiards. You know, "second pitch, looping liner two feet to the left of second base."

I hadn't heard that one, Mick. That's pretty much what Ichiro does, although he seems to have two shots "called" for every pitch. If it's away, I'll put it over there, if it's middle-in, it goes this way. Sometimes he misses by a degree or two; rarely more than that. And I'm not sure he could hit a pop-up if he tried -- everything is a line drive or a hard bouncer.

The problem with getting Floyd is that the Mets aren't exactly in the - dumping contracts for prospects mode

But money saved on trading Floyd (or Piazza?) would allow the Mets to use that money on someone else which is something they are very interested in.

I read the other day that the Mets will receive revenue sharing this year because they can expense the buyout of their local TV deal. Not sure if that's accurate, but if it is that's kinda funny.

The Mets are rich and dumb.

I still want to think Duke's a good GM who has his hands tied a lot by management. The Benson trade would've been defensible if it didn't give him leverage to ask for an absurd contract. The Zambrano trade was just flat-out idiocy. Giving up Huber was moronic, almost as moronic as the Pirates wanting Bautista instead of him. But from what they said in the press, Duke really was under a mandate. I don't work in the front office of a major league team, and I knew about Zambrano's arm troubles before the deal.

Really too bad, because it was a team with a ton of promise and the resources to make good things happen. As has been the case with the Mets recently, and what should give the Jays hope, they once again turned their biggest asset- money- into a liability.

I don't think Floyd would last on the Skydome's turf. They needed to spell him often in Montreal a couple of years ago, right? I suppose the Jays can use him as a DH but then I think I'd rather have Catalanotto who will be much cheaper anyway and actually wants to be in Toronto.

Elijah, I'm not trying to say Floyd's the answer to anyone's prayers -- that would be Dunn -- he's just a "for instance" to illustrate that there are many options, all of which the Jays are considering, beyond the narrow scope of free agents who currently play first base. If, as dp says, "Floyd won't play 1B," then I'm less enthusiastic already about my own suggestion, because he sure doesn't belong in a Gross/Johnson-Wells-Rios outfield.

If JP could somehow pry Adam Dunn away from the Reds the Jays would be in amazing shape heading into next season. Dunn would be able to play 1st base and the Jays great defensive outfield would still be intact.

I'm wondering what it would take to get him though. Someone yesterday mentioned Josh Banks, but personally I think it'll take A LOT more than Josh Banks. I think the Jays would have to bid farewall to Adams, Banks, and Rosario.

Thoughts?

Coach- What's wrong with Floyd as DH, Crozier as 1B? Floyd's problem with 1B comes from that horrific wrist injury he suffered playing there (against the Mets)- last time he played 1B was 1997. I wouldn't want to depend on him in the OF, but he's a cheap potential 30 HR guy with a good walk rate, could probably be had for around $3 million. Last year, posted an OPS + of 132.

As a hypothetical, if you're JP and you can get Piazza for $6 million and a B+ pitching prospect, do you do it?

In regards to trading for Adam Dunn....giving up Adams is not the end of the world with Hill just a half year behind in developement and O-dog looked in at second. Losing Banks and Rosario is interesting but what about trading Arnold or JFG instead. I would rather give up Banks, Arnold and JFG for Dunn than both top pitching prospects.

Here's how I would handle a possible Dunn trade if I were on the Jays management:

Me: Alright Cinci, what do you want for Dunn?
Cinci GM: Everything
Me: Sold!

I agree, if Adam Dunn is available the jays have to seriously take him into consideration. My only problems with him are his low average totals and high strikeout rates. Another position that needs to be filled for next year is the SS position and while I hope Nomar suddenly decides to comeback to the AL East at a fraction of his salary I can’t help but look at Omar Vizquel as a more realistic option. He would be a perfect mentor for a guy like Russ Adams to look up to and would give the jays a true major league calibre SS unseen in these parts since the departure of Mike Bordick.

No way they're counting on Crozier in 2005, though it would be fantastic if he can be the 25th man -- occasional 1B, DH, corner OF, pinch-hitting. Otherwise, he's back in Syracuse as much better injury insurance than they had this year. If he's better than that by 2006, it was a helluva trade.

Assume they're going to get two experienced big-league bats. I may have misinterpreted Floyd's unwillingness to play first as an insistence on being an outfielder, but sure, if he's happy as a DH, I think he'd be an asset. If Catalanotto is coming back, however, he's also a man without a position. I have no problem with his relative lack of power, because a healthy Cat is an ideal #1 or #2 hitter vs. RHP. It's just that the other new stick would need to play almost every day at 1B, and swinging from the right side might help.

C'mon, guys, Dunn's wishful thinking. You might as well speculate about Pujols. It's not so much what it would take to pry him away, as the cost uncertainty. He could break the bank in arbitration, and who knows what his demands might be for a long-term deal? It's safe to say a lot more than the Jays will invest in any one player for the foreseeable future.

I've heard Floyd said that he would play 1b.

Glaus/Dunn/Delgado are all out of reach. We might as well debate Bonds and Pedro.

So then who is there then? Richie Sexson? The Jays need a big bat to replace Delgado, they can't settle for average major leaguers to fill in for him.

I agree with Coach that Floyd would be a good fit, but living in NY I also know that he's very outspoken about always wanting to play the outfield. Plus, coming back to the turf might bring back some bad memories for him. Maybe getting the new turf that Tampa Bay, Monstreal, Minnesota now use might attract more free agents?

Delgado, they can't settle for average major leaguers to fill in for him.

To paraphrase Pierre Trudeau: Just watch them.

If you want to trade for a reasonable power bat, how about (OF) Preston Wilson and (3B prospect) Garrett Atkins for Eric Hinkse and Justin Miller (why does that sound familiar?) or another pitcher. You pay more for Wilson next year ($6.5 million?) but save a little over the long run with Hinske's contract. It saves the Rockies from having to over pay Castilla to hold 3B warm for uber 3B prospect Ian Stewart until he's ready in about two years. The Rockies have been trying to rid themselves of Wilson and he could spend time in the outfield and at DH and be an excellent backup should Gross not be ready. Wilson has also proven that he can hit for power away from Coors (when he was with the Marlins) and he is the son of one of the most loved ex-Jays Mr. Mookie Wilson. Why would the Rockies part with Atkins, who is batting over .360. He doesn't hit for a lot of power and his glove is questionable. But the guy gets on base (high average, more hits than walks... think a Wade Boggs type). And with Stewart and Jeff Baker in the minors, the Rockies have an abundance of riches at 3B.

It's really sad that the Blue Jays can't do much to keep there own players like Delgado. You really can't win a championship with just a developing people from the farm. If only the Blue Jays could spend more....Oh well...Delgado for Sexson sounds about right.

You really can't win a championship with just a developing people from the farm. If only the Blue Jays could spend more.

Evidence shows otherwise. The Marlins did it just last season, with a payroll right around what the Jays will spend next year.

No way they're counting on Crozier in 2005, though it would be fantastic if he can be the 25th man -- occasional 1B, DH, corner OF, pinch-hitting

Remind me again why Phelps had to go? He's killing LHP this year- .373/.637. I'd think that's useful to a skilled manager. It seems like the type of player we're looking for is the type we had- cheap 1B/DH with power potential. Is he that bad at 1B that he's uncoachable, that an offseason of training wouldn't make him at least passable there?

This is why we disagree on JP a lot- for every move he makes that I think is really slick, he makes one that leaves me confused.

Coach, WRT to Cat, it seems like the Jays have a lot of #2 type hitters and are really missing a legit #5 hitter. It will be really interesting to see how next year's offense is put together, and what kind of plan there is for the parts to interact. I have a lot of hope for Gross, more than for Rios because it seems like at every level Gross started slow, kept his walk rates high even through slumps, and then seen his power come on. If that happens in the majors he'll be a dangerous guy.

To paraphrase Pierre Trudeau: Just watch them.

See, now if I was funnier, there would be a great line right here. Something about the Trudeau running the economy into the ground and Moffatt's pink hair. Trust me, it would have been hilarious.

Well if we're throwing out names of cheap replacements, there's Nick Johnson and Brad Wilkerson who are just starting to make decent money in Montreal and might be available, Johnson particularly. JT Snow probably isn't going to get enough at-bats to activate his option next year. Jack Cust will be a minor league free agent and would make a nice backup with Crozier in AAA. Carlos Pena may be non-tendered. Of course there's always Cat.

If you have 4 guys like that at least 2 of them will step up and provide pretty similar or more likely better offense than this year's 1B/DH. That leaves a pretty solid chunk of money to spend at SS and pitching.

All of this discussion about who's going to play first base is a little depressing considering that none of the options seem too promising. The Jays have certainly be fortunate at this position for a long, long time.

It seems to me that JPs best move at this point might be to hide under a pile of coats and hope that everything works out somehow.

Another position that needs to be filled for next year is the SS position

As long as he doesn't totally screw up in September or Spring Training next year, Im willing to bet Adams will be the everyday SS next season. With Gomez (or some reasonable fascimile) backing him up, and Hill a phonecall away at Syracuse. Might as well see if he can do the job before we decide that we need someone else. And it leaves more money in the pot to spend on that pesky 1B/DH problem.

JP was on the Fan yesterday morning and said that best-case-scenario Adams would be ready in June/July of next year. I would guess we'll see someone like Julio Lugo or the above mentioned Vizquel brought in for next spring.

As for the discussion about Dunn while its fun and all - remember that Santa Claus isn't a real person no matter how much you believe! :)

I agree with Moffatt - you are not going to see one person eat up the $10-12 million that JP has to play with. A few guys will be brought in with salaries in the $2-5 million range to fill the many problem areas the team has. That doesn't mean that they are all going to be Randall Simon type veterans. The money may get spent on people in similar circumstances like Lilly. Of course, that means that acquiring them will involve assets other than just money. It's a fact of life for $50 million payroll teams.

See, now if I was funnier, there would be a great line right here. Something about the Trudeau running the economy into the ground and Moffatt's pink hair. Trust me, it would have been hilarious.

Rob, I use this trick all the time, including on Da Box on a couple of occassions. Making a joke by saying that there must be a joke there, and then including either the incongruities which you intended to juxtapose, or the irony which you intended point out. That is, in fact, the most effective format for some jokes.

Here is the one that I use most often:

"There is a joke I heard one time about a an all Leprosy Hockey League. I can't remember exactly how it goes, but I do remember that the punchline was 'there's a face-off in the offensive zone'"

Well if we're throwing out names of cheap replacements, there's Nick Johnson and Brad Wilkerson who are just starting to make decent money in Montreal and might be available, Johnson particularly. JT Snow probably isn't going to get enough at-bats to activate his option next year. Jack Cust will be a minor league free agent and would make a nice backup with Crozier in AAA. Carlos Pena may be non-tendered. Of course there's always Cat.

2B, Hudson (S)
3B, Hinske (L)
LF, Gross (L)
CF, Wells (R)
RF, Rios (R)
DH?
1B?
SS?
C? Quiroz (R) / Zaun (S) / Cash (R)

I guess another lefthanded bat would be ok, but given that next two guys on the 1B depth chart (Crozier and JFG) nat left, it might be a good idea to get at least one righthanded batter to play 1B or DH.

I would forget about Cust (can't play defense) and Snow (to old and slow). Johnson is a bit injury prone. I would guess the Expos would sign Wilkerson to a Vidro-like contract, if MLB lets them.

However, Carlos Pena is an interesting one. He looked like a star when he was coming through the minors, and his career has completely stalled out. I wonder if a decent hitting coach could get him back on track.

I disagree, I think Cust could be one of the better fielding DH's in the league. Admittedly I haven't seen a enough of JT Snow lately to comment on his defense but he's always been very solid to my knowledge. I also wasn't aware how well he's been playing recently and I think the Giants will definitely pick up his option. Another righthanded bat would be nice yes, but we do have Menechino, Reed and Zaun on the bench.

Crozier and JFG are pretty irrelevant I think since they'd only be replacing another lefthanded bat at 1B/DH/LF.

Assuming a $53M payroll.

$26.75M guaranteed contracts
$ 1.00M Gross, Rios, Johnson
$ 1.00M Zaun and Cash or Quiroz
$ .50M Hudson
$ 1.60M Speier (same as this year)
$ 1.50M Bush, Towers, Frasor, Chulk
$10.00M Delgado
$ .70M Menechino (can play multiple positions with some pop)
$43.05M Total

Need - SS, DH, Backup infielder, 3 pitchers with $10M

I don't like the SS options out there so let Adams play. One pitcher can be at minimum and the backup IF won't cost much. That leaves say $8-9M for a DH and 2 pitchers. I think this will work.

Phelps kills lefties, but there aren't any to kill, making him a waste of a roster spot.

Phelps kills lefties, but there aren't any to kill, making him a waste of a roster spot.

Not to mention, he's arbitration eligible after the season. If Phelps wasn't traded during the season, he probably would have been non-tendered because you don't pay arbitration prices for lefty mashers, you pay league minimum or close to it. We should feel lucky that the Jays received anything in return for Phelps.

Jim - your statement would be great except its not true. Literally, off the top of my head without even reviewing the rosters, these are lefthanded staters in the AL right now:

Min - Mulholland, Santana
Chicago - Buerhle, Schowenweiss
Det- Robertson, Maroth
KC - May, Anderson
Clev - Lee, Sabathia
Sea - Moyer, Madstrich
Ana - Washburn
Oak - Zito, Mulder, Redman
Texas - Rogers
TB - Hendrickson, Halama
Balt - Riley, Bedard
Tor - Lilly

I'm sure I've missed a few along the way. At any time between 25% and 30% of starters are usually lefthanded. A right handed platoon bat should get around 250 AB's once pinchitting is taken into account. The thing with Phelps was that he was going to arbitration and JP was not willing to pay the $800k to $1 million he might have gotten. The issue I have is that for around $3 million JP was sitting on a platoon DH of Cat and Phelps that I think could have produced around a .280/.330/.475 fairly easily. He's going to have to go some to find a DH fill in that will do that for less (F-Cat and Menecchino would cost about the same).

Not to mention, he's arbitration eligible after the season.

This is yet to be determined. Phelps could be a Super-2, but he's close to the line and he might not qualify for arb.

Robert's right. But with 2 full seasons, half of 02 and Septembers in 01 and 00 under his belt, it's probable.

Well if we're throwing out names of cheap replacements, there's Nick Johnson and Brad Wilkerson

Realistically, they could make a platoon of Crozier and my mother at 1st and it would have the same impact.. all that matters next year is Can Adams play Short and drive in 80 or so by 2006, and will the league figure out Bush and the Rookie arms... or will they be in good shape by 2006 too...

its in 2006 that we should be talking about picking up a Piazza etc for 1B

For 1B options, you have to look either at a team like the Rangers, who have quality kid stuck behind someone (Adrian Gaonzalez behind Mark Teixeira) or the Yankees, who have eleventy-teen first basemen (Giambi, Clark, Lee, Olerud, Posada).

Anyone notice the Reds are traling only NYY in former College QBs acquired (Shea Morenz, Drew Henson in NY, Henson and Dunn in CIN). Of course, CIN. Interesting that both have Henson and a former UT Longhorn QB in their annals.

Nigel - where are all the lefties in the AL East, last I checked the Jays play almost half their schedule in the division:

TB - Hendrickson, Halama
Balt - Riley, Bedard

Are you kidding me with these 4?

'A right handed platoon bat should get around 250 AB's once pinchitting is taken into account. '

I believe Phelps is at about 109 AB this year. He would keep a manager from using a lefty reliever at times, but other then Kazmir there isn't even an interesting left handed starter in the AL. The Yankees are using CJ Nitkowski - this tells me that there isn't exactly a surplus of lefties available.

The Blue Jays, for an AL team, face about an average amount of lefthanded pitching (9th of 14 in the AL in AB vs LHP). The AL has many, many more lefties than the NL... the Jays would rank a close 3rd in the NL and the average NL team has about 20-25% fewer PA versus lefties than the average AL team.

The NL Central, in particular, is righty-heavy.

'I believe Phelps is at about 109 AB this year.'

Against LH pitchers that is.

"He should be required to call his shots, like in billiards. You know, "second pitch, looping liner two feet to the left of second base."

I don't think I've ever seen a hitter like Ichiro. In his first spring training, some people thought he was struggling at the plate. They didn't realize that he was using the spring games to experiment with his swing, as he knew that he could hit major league pitching. Wow.

The math is pretty simple: if .300-35-130, to use your reasonable projection, costs $12 million a year, and Kevin Millar (.276-25-96 when he played a full season) gets a mere $3.5 million, the savings can be put to very good use elsewhere.

If they can get a .276-25-96 player for $3.5 million, I can definitely live with that. J.P. is smart enough not to get a .260-15-75 player for $3.5 million, I assume.

Perhaps I'm just being overly pessimistic, but I'm wondering whether J.P. has decided to look a little further ahead than originally planned. Maybe he's decided that the team has too many holes to contend in 2005, and is trying for a little further down the road. The Yankees will probably have imploded by 2006, so that's when the fabled Window Of Opportunity [tm] will open.

Talking about left handed pitching what about Gustavo Chacin? 15-2 in double a and know 2-0 in triple a.I have not seen him pitch live is he the real deal?i know seeing a player live is different than looking at stats.

the Yankees, who have eleventy-teen first basemen (Giambi, Clark, Lee, Olerud, Posada).

Ah yes, the wonderful depth of the mighty Yankees.

Giambi: Huge injury risk even before the parasite thing, massive contract

Clark: Replacement level

Lee: Below replacement Level

Olerud: (Sorry old buddy) Over the hill

Posada: A nice player, but a very big contract and a prime collapse risk after so many years playing so many games behind the plate

Crash & Burn, lousy Yankees! The Jays are better off with Crozier than any of those bums.

I still think olerud can play since joining the yankees he is over 300He does not have much power but great d and still can hold his own.

Perhaps I'm just being overly pessimistic, but I'm wondering whether J.P. has decided to look a little further ahead than originally planned.

I don't see how you get that. If Delgado had won back-to-back MVPs and the Jays were a .500 team right now there would still be no way he'd be coming back as he'd be too expensive.

So what has changed? What JP thought he'd have for a budget hasn't changed.

I really don't get what you're trying to say.

Look the rangers were inlast year with a -rod trade him yes for soriano know trying for the wild card.With delgado in last place we can not get any worse....Look lets believe in Jp he has a plan lets trust him.(we have nothing else really we can do)

I don't think anyone is questioning the plan. The plan is really just to mature young players and hope they develope into mlb players. Clearly Jp has done this with the success of the farm teams this year. Hopefully in a year or two we will have an abundance of prospects which we will be able to trade when we do become competitive.

Any ideas on what the blue jays plans are for JFG. Our outfield seems pretty full for the next couple of years. Trade bait?

What has changed is the team as a whole underperformed. I'm sure J.P. was expecting no worse than 85 wins this year, which would put them in a position to contend in 2005 (90 wins is contention). Maybe he could have sold Godfrey/Rogers on adding a few million to the payroll to keep Delgado and plug the remaining holes and at least challenge for the wild card.

This season has shown that the talent on the roster is farther away from winning 90 games than was thought in March 2004.

John-Ford Griffin started showing some power late this season and got his up avg up to 250 after a really slow start.I think he can be a big hr threat but he is got no pos.He can be Josh plelps all over again

Maybe Dave needs to shop at Old Navy and be impacted by the effects of feel good fashion?

Lee: Below replacement Level

Don't remember OTH if Lee is signed beyond this year, but if he isn't, I wouldn't mind having him if he came cheap.

WRT Phelps- if he costs $800K, I think he's worth it, unless they've absolutely, positively decided he'll never hit RHP at all. JP paid Berg around $800K this year.

I will be shocked if the pay roll goes over 51 mill next year!

Does any body what happened to Raul Tablado today?

Two words:

Erubiel Durazo.

Three more words:

It will happen.

RE: JFG

JP has said somewhere he's playing in AAA next year, so that's why he's staying at AA all of this year.

I don't feel very good about Griffin. He's getting his average up from awful to not awful but is still striking out like a mad man. At his age in AA I don't think that's a good sign. I'm not sure what happened to the hitter who was so dominant in college.

Well if we're throwing out names of cheap replacements, there's Nick Johnson and Brad Wilkerson

I think I read Gammons say that Johnson is a potential non-tender by the Expos.

Of course if they move and have an owner things change a lot.

If we can't get Delgado, I would love to see Johnson at first base next year.

I don't see how you get that. If Delgado had won back-to-back MVPs and the Jays were a .500 team right now there would still be no way he'd be coming back as he'd be too expensive.

Basically, what Robert said: if, this year, the Jays had improved on last year's 86 win total, they might have been poised to make a move in '05. Now, it doesn't look that way. Of course, J.P. might have known all along that the team wasn't going to seriously contend until 2006 or later, so maybe things are still going according to plan.

I'm just sad about losing Delgado, is all. I now can see why there are sound financial reasons to let him go (assuming that there isn't any way to sign him at a mutually agreeable wage). But it's going to be a wrenching experience to see him in somebody else's uniform. And it's going to be an even more wrenching experience to see him hit one into the second deck at SkyDome while wearing somebody else's uniform. Especially if that uniform says "Orioles" on it.

Oh, well. No one said this was going to be easy. :-)

I forgot:

Maybe Dave needs to shop at Old Navy and be impacted by the effects of feel good fashion?

Funniest thing I've read all day. :-)

If we can't get Delgado, I would love to see Johnson at first base next year.

Now that would be a risky move. Way more risk than with someone like Glaus, though likely much cheaper.

I'm lukewarm on Johnson. His best offensive skill - taking pitches - is taking a beating this year as every pitcher knows to start him off with strike one. Also, the fact that he crowds the plate and gets hit by pitches a lot means that he gets a lot of these freak injuries.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/baseball/mlb/09/02/bc.bba.tigers.urbina.sm.ap/index.html
- hijack -

Ugueth Urbina's mother has been kidnapped. COMN.

if the Expos non-tender Johnson -- i doubt it -- I would think he'd end up back in pinstripes, as the seventh first baseman and fourth DH.

Ugueth Urbina's mother has been kidnapped.

My god, this is horrible. There's a couple more details available in this report out of Venezuela, but most all we know is in the AP wire story.

Reuters article has more details.

I won't get into a discussion of Venezuelan politics, but given the mushrooming number of quasi-political kidnappings in Venezuela by paramilitary groups, it's possible (RAMPANT SPECULATION ALERT) that this is not solely a money thing...

For what its worth, I would definitely take a shot on Johnson for what he would cost. I agree with Craig, he is very high risk but the cost will still be fairly reasonable. For that reason (and Omar would take a big publicity black eye for non-tendering him one year after trading Vazquez for him), I find it very hard to believe that the Expos will let him walk.

Italics go away...yada, yada.

Wow! Your last two words aren't in italics, Rob. How did you *do* that?

Willy, when you use an italics tag you MUST close it again. That's an italics tag with "/i" instead of "i" between the angle brackets.

So to recap, when you use a <i> tag to make italics, you have to use a </i> tag to close the italics when you want them to end.

If you don't, you'll just make the whole rest of the page go italics.

When I'm in a rather playful mood, I like to leave the bold tags or the italics tags open on my blogs. It's kind of cool to see the effects a person can create. All bold. All italics. Bolded with italics. Yes, I have too much time on my hands. I need to post here more.