On last night's game thread several Bauxites were discussing Justin Speier and how he has underperformed in pressure situations, but has overperformed in non-pressure situations, leading to the conclusion that Speier hasn't been as good as his stats. This isn't the first time this has been mentioned at Batter's Box; Speier's frustrating year despite his very good stuff has been the subject of much comment.

I thought I'd take a look at this, to confirm whether it is true.


I will define "pressure situation" as any game where the Blue Jays are up three runs or less or down two runs or less in the eighth or earlier, or where the game is within two runs in the ninth. To make things easier, whenever Speier is in a pressure situation in an appearance (not of his own doing... i.e. no fair giving up runs and then calling it a "pressure situation") I will count his whole appearance as in a pressure situation.

Non-Pressure Situations for Justin Speier

April 5
May 10
June 22, 24
July 7, 16, 21, 31
August 6, 7, 20, 22

So Speier pitched 12 times in non-pressure situations, and has made 33 appearances in pressure situations. What is immediately noticeable is how Speier's crucial role in the bullpen has ebbed; in the first two months of the year, he pitched only twice in non-pressure situations as he was a key member of the front end of the pen. In the last two months, he's pitched eight times in non-pressure situations as his role has shrunk in significance.

How has he done in each type of situation?

                          IP    H   R  ER  BB   SO   ERA  H/9  WHIP
Non-Pressure Situations  14.2  13   8   8   6   13  4.90  8.0  1.30
Pressure Situations      38.2  31  17  17  18   28  3.96  7.2  1.27

Except for his strikeout-to-walk ratio, Speier has been better in pressure situations than in non-pressure situations. I think the stat line that we see for Speier is a reasonable reflection of his actual performance this year. He's been OK.