http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
The Jays really hit well against the Orioles. Each game was a throw down, a show down... hell no they couldn't slow down! Rios made a couple of great catches that must have made his backbone slide. And, um... Maestro Fresh Wes something something... those puns are hard to work in sometimes.

Oops. I thought that said "Sacro-Iliac" Kindly ignore my post. I just wanted the cuttlefish so bad I neglected my fact-checking.

I was at baseball reference yesterday, and I noticed that there are a bunch of this year's Jays that don't have sponsors. Berg, Gomez, Woodward, Chulk, Lilly... probably more.
If you've never been there, go to http://www.baseballreference.com
Once you've been there you'll probably find yourself going back often.
I was lucky enough to get Ernie Whitt.

I had a chance to see (on the TV) Maurer pitch the other night in his last start in Syracuse. He looks like he could do quite well out of the pen for the Jays. His stuff all has a similar look so he is really only good for one time through the order. He throws a splitter and slurvy curveball and doesn't have a real out pitch but he should get lots of groundballs and hopefully keep the ball in the park.

I must say that the current offence has been Rapturous. Blondie anyone?

We have a winner!



As an added bonus, the very talented Debbie Harry of Blondie:

Very talented indeed! Woot.

Wrong corny 80's rap song! Rats.

Nice pic Moffatt. I did a google image search of Debbie Henry and came across this gem on page 7:



Everyone's favourite trust fund hunk - Dylan McKay!

I know some of you are hoping the Jays get a higher draft pick

The difference between picks 4 and 10 isn't that great. The player the Jays would want is likely to be the same either way.

It was probably best for Cat to shut it down, as he was hitting only .225 since July 20th and was 0 for his last 18.

For those advocating the return of Cat you have to assume that he's going to miss a significant portion of the season due to injury.

Year - GP
1999 - 100
2000 - 103
2001 - 133
2002 - 68
2003 - 133
2004 - 75
Ave - 102

Is that worth $2 million?

I did a google image search of Debbie Henry

My first google image search was for "Blondie". With the safe filter turned off. I wouldn't recommend doing that if you're at work. :)

Whoops, typo: Debbie Harry, not Henry!

And you're right Pistol - Cat's health issues definitely complicate the decision to re-sign him.

Is that worth $2 million?
Yes.
Check out Paul Molitor's injury history before he became an indispensable member of the Jays' World Series team.

Marc,

Paul Molitor had 4 seasons of 154+ games and 600+ABs in the 5 years prior to signing with the Jays. His significant injury history was earlier in his career.

To be fair to Cat he wasn't always a full-time player in that period. In 2000 he missed 15 days with a right groin strain. In 2002, he had the same groin strain and missed 6 weeks but also missed 7 weeks because Mark Hendrickson hit him on the hand (which is a different type of injury). I am concerned about the recurrent groin problem and would only sign him if the surgery is a success and only for one year.

Is that worth $2 million?

If you're worried about playing time, analyze him using a counting stat!

WARP3 for Frankie Cat since 2000

• 2000 - 2.4
  
• 2001 - 5.2
  
• 2002 - 1.8
  
• 2003 - 3.9
  
• 2004 - 1.4
  

Avg = 2.94

That's a tough call. I'd do it, but admittedly I'm a fan of the Cat.

I'd like to nominate deborah Harry to sing the national anthem when our All-Two-First-Names team takes the field. Or we could have a duet between two artists with one name each, like Cher and Sting or Madonna and TAFKAP/Symbol-boy.

To be fair to Cat he wasn't always a full-time player in that period

Well, if you throw out 1999 and 2000 you come up with the same average.

Well obviously the Cat's career doesn't completely mirror Molitor's but my point was that injury bugs CAN be shaken.

A one-year, $2 million contract is not a huge gamble. Plus I am a huge fan of incentive laden contracts. They should be used more often. Gives players something to aim for, however it makes budgeting more difficult at times.

I would bring Cat back solely for the purpose of being a platoon DH against righthanders; that job description would take fullest advantage of his skills, minimize the risk of injury, and limit him to a maximum of 400 ABs anyway. If he has to play the field or face left-handers, he's not worth the investment. Cat has essentially become Rance Mulliniks.

On this ballclub next year, Cat would be a left-handed DH/5th outfielder. He can safely be projected to hit .290/.350/.450 in 300-350 ABs. $2 million is a little high for that production in that role.

If he is used absolutely in a platoon role (with no ABs whatsoever against lefties), you could project him to .300/.365/.470 in 250-300 ABs. At that level, he would be more useful. You need another right-handed bat to make that work, and you wouldn't want to spend more than 2.5 for both.

Jordan's right about his best usage, and the idea of an incentive laden contract is a smart one.

I for one, really like Catalanatto, and think if used effectively, he can be very valuable. Add a RH DH who can only hit LHP and therefor commands very little money (example: Indians nontender Josh Phelps), and go for real power at 1B, Delgado or Sexton. $2 million, maybe, and no real competition to sign him.

the idea of an incentive laden contract is a smart one.

Though generally unrealistic.

Who else caught yesterday's game on the radio? Jerry's call of the ninth inning, with J.P. in the booth and sounding very nervous about the outcome of the game, was absolutely fantastic radio, especially Jerry's shouting call of Rios' game-ending catch and the sudden release of tension that came with it.

That was some of the most dramatic and exciting baseball coverage I've ever heard on the radio. Best so far this year, if you ask me.

Barfield standings:

Rank	Team	                  W-L-T	         WPct	GB
 1	Slippery Pete	        149-80-11	0.644	-
 2	Ghost Man On Third	139-93-8	0.596	11.5
 3	Good Sports	        134-100-6	0.571	17.5
 4	Edmonton Decepticons	129-100-11	0.560	20.0
 5	HOMER JAYS Simpsons	126-101-13	0.552	22.0
 6	team junior felix	124-104-12	0.542	24.5
 7	Pistol Nine	        123-106-11	0.535	26.0
 8	MonkeymenCubed	        119-108-13	0.523	29.0
 9	TMG Eh's	        115-107-18	0.517	30.5
 10	Vancouver Cyphers	117-114-9	0.506	33.0
 11	Freddy Beach Fracas	111-118-11	0.485	38.0
 12	Capers	                112-121-7	0.481	39.0
 13	Middleclass Elitists	106-119-15	0.473	41.0
 14	Anarchist Archivists	108-122-10	0.471	41.5
 15	1-Tool Wonders	        107-122-11	0.469	42.0
 16	Canadian wannabe	109-124-7	0.469	42.0
 17	W-A-M-C-O	        103-127-10	0.450	46.5
 18	The Sweaty Guys	         94-137-9	0.410	56.0
 19	Schroedingers Bat	 86-142-12	0.383	62.5
 20	Ben's Men	         82-148-10	0.363	67.5

You know, when your team hits .315/.402/.543 for the week in over 200 ABs you expect to get at least 4 of 6 hitting points, and more likely 5 or 6.

This week I ran into the FBF juggernaut who went .345/.424/.609!

Was it easier on the pitching side? Nope. FBF pulled out 7 wins and 5 saves.

I lost 10-2, pulling out innings and SBs. My Alomar dreams are about over now as I'm 8.5 games back of 3rd place with 24 to play.

I don't think the incentive laden contract is that unlikely, especially with A) a player with injury questions B) a player who really wants to return to the team.

Give the Cat a $1.5 million contract and allow incentives to creep up into the $3 or $4 million mark (if he reaches career high goals). If it puts a pinch into your budget later in the season you can always trade him... if he is meeting the goals in the contract, teams will obviously want him for the playoffs. Heck, teams wanted the Cat even when they knew he was hurting.

It's always a bit of a gamble, but teams don't improve by playing it safe. Look at Detroit. They took gambles on Rodriguez and Guillen and look how that turned out. The Rangers gambled on Kenny Rogers and look how that turned out.

What would $2M buy on the FA market? I would assume someone comparable to Cat.

You could use the $2M to bump up the monies available for a premier FA, but then you have to replace Frankie and his career 293/358/457 line. Have we got a LH DH/OF in the minors that can do that for minimum salary? Closest person I can think of is JFG. Is he ready to make a 2 level jump? Maybe JFG gets called up in Sept for a pseudo-tryout since we no longer have a LH DH (or a RH DH).

Ooops! I selectively forgot about Hattig and Crozier.

Surprised that today's discussion hasn't turned to the amazing defense that the Jays played yesterday, other than NFH post about Jerry's call on the final out. I was jacked up pretty good watching the game on TV yesterday with all the great plays turned in. Not to mention that offense (couple of homers and doubles). That might have been the best game I have seen for quite some time, add in the nervy ninth and I was a wreck by the end of the game.

My favorite play - Johnson's catch runing into the wall. I though he was going to drop the ball on the double clutch.

Ruben Mateo is on waivers.

Would he not make a good 4th outfielder for next year? Or is he the kind of guy you wait until the offseason to try to sign to a minor league contract and bring into camp as an NRI?

The Washington post thinks the O's might go after Carlos.

COMN and scroll down...

jc

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22295-2004Aug21_2.html
Crap, try that again...

So the Jays finally have a lefty or a possible LOOGY in Maurer out of the pen. I think this really mixes things up and I don't expect to see as much of Ligtenberg as we've seen in the past. Speier's really stepping up his game, Ligtenberg is pitching better but I think with Maurer he is now strictly a ROOGY type guy. If Chulk continues to struggle, is it time to move Justin Speier to the role of "setup man?"

I think it's possible.

Also, with Cat gone is it safe to assume that now Frankie M moves into the starting lineup as the new DH? If so, I think he should bat leadoff which would drop Rios to 6th and move a suddenly power-stricken Hinske to 5th.

I don't care much for the name of the Barfield leaders, either.

And I'd be suprised if Chulk isn't already about done as Frasor's setup man. Speier it is, especially since JP wants to bring him back.

Mateo is not the type of player JP typically goes for. He has tools, but has never really learned how to put them all together. I think there may be questions about his attitude as well.

With Gross holding his own, I'd say the Jays outfield is in pretty good shape.

On a team with such big problems offensively, why would they pass on a guy who is a very good hitter and comes cheap. How many other smart .300+ hitters come for around 2m?

I'm talking about the Cat in the above post, I didn't make that too clear.

The difference between picks 4 and 10 isn't that great. The player the Jays would want is likely to be the same either way.

Dont know if i entirely agree with this. It would be interesting to see what the data/studies would say on this...4th pick can still mean a pretty special player with a huge upside...

Personally, I would much rather have the fourth pick and wouldnt worry about beating out the Rays or Orioles this season - but thats just me.

I note Lance Berkman is a FA at the end of this year and Houston is weighed down by a lot of big contracts. He is making 6.5 Million this year. With his OBP (lifetime .416 with over 100 walks this year already) and power you got to figure JP would love him. Any idea what he would fetch in the open market? If you gave him $9 or 10 million and say $4 millon for another bat the Jays might be in good shape.

Everyone will love Berkman. I think $10 million is the minimum you'd get him for.

Also, where would he play? The outfield is taken up. 10 mil for a DH isn't very good.

Am I right in assuming Eric Crozier will play every day at DH once the September rosters are in effect? And does he have to be on the 40-man roster to get called up in September?

It would be interesting to see what the data/studies would say on this...4th pick can still mean a pretty special player with a huge upside...

Here are the draft picks at #4 and #10 the past 15 years:

	   4	           10
2004	Niemann	        Diamond
2003	Stauffer	I Stewart
2002	Loewen	        D Meyer
2001	G Floyd	        C Burke
2000	Stodolka	J Torres
1999	C Meyers	B Sheets
1998	J Austin	C Pena
1997	Grilli	        J Garland
1996	Koch	        E Chavez
1995	K Wood	        C Hermansen
1994	A Williamson	J Wright
1993	W Gomes	        B Kieschnick
1992	J Hammonds	M Tucker
1991	D Young	        T Green
1990	A Fernandez	C Everett

I'd say 2003 & 2004 too early to call, but of the other 13 years I'd say the better player came from #4 in 2002, 2001, 1995, and 1991. (Also consider that in 2002 and 2001, none of the players have made the majors - it's more of a 'who would I rather have right now').

The better player from #10 was years 1999, 1998, 1997, 1996, and 1994.

The other 4 years are similar level players.

It's a limited look at the picks, but I don't see too much more value from picking 4th than 10th. Only Kerry Wood has been an All Star from the 4s going back to 1990.

Mateo is not the type of player JP typically goes for. He has tools, but has never really learned how to put them all together. I think there may be questions about his attitude as well.

With Gross holding his own, I'd say the Jays outfield is in pretty good shape.

Ah, but I was suggesting that we get him as a backup. Attitude problems have a tendency of going away when a player realizes their career hangs in the balance. Mateo had some very nice numbers at AAA before being recalled. And at 26, he's still fairly young.

Though I suppose Reed Johnson is capable of filling that role against lefties. And Mateo is also righthanded. I guess the Jays will be on the lookout for a switch hitting or lefthanded outfield bat. I wonder if the Angels would part with Jeff Davanon...

jc

I like Cat and wouldnt mind seeing him back, but where is the power going to come from if you have Cat as your DH?

And did anyone else really enjoy Faulds and Cerutti yesterday? I haven't watched a game in a while, and I found them to be amusing and...well, enjoyable. (Except for Faulds' mistake on the score one inning; 3-0 instead of 3-1.)

I especially liked the map graphic showing Navan and Ottawa, with Navan in big letters. Was that you, Mr. Carson?

Also, where would he play? The outfield is taken up. 10 mil for a DH isn't very good.

You make room for him. We're talking about Lance Berkman, who had a career OPS+ of 144 coming into this year.

I could be wrong, but I don't think Gross is going to be any more than an average corner OF. It's not like he's the second coming of Bonds that he can't me moved out of LF for an All Star level player. I suspect that either Gross or Rios would be easily tradable.

Perhaps Berkman would look good with a 1B glove on as well.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/berkmla01.shtml
Hey, Berkman's played 3 games at 1B!

Berkman vs. Delgado? Gentlemen, start your engines!

Carlos is almost 5 years older, but if you ask me who is likely to be better in 2005 and 2006, my money is on him. Berkman is also likely to get more on the open market.

Oh crap

Italics off?

Since whoever we sign, Delgado, Berkman, Sexson to fill the #4 power slot in the order, will most likely be the highest paid player, does the question of leadership come up? Has Delgado answered these questions? I'm not saying he hasn't, but I haven't heard much about Carlos' leadership except rumblings of him not being kinda mediocre in that department. I, for one, believe we already have great leaders in Halladay and Wells, and would rather have a balanced team with a closer, DH, and a power-hitting 1B at reasonable prices. I don't like the idea of being on a tight budget and praying for 1 guy not to get injured or have a bad year.

With regards to bringing back the Cat, you guys are overlooking one of his best skills, the guy was AMAZING in the broadcast booth filling in for Mr. Cheek. He must have had experience somewhere because for a first timer he was honestly a better sportscaster than half the ones I know. Maybe we can get some kind of DH/Colour Commentator platoon for next year with him.

Since whoever we sign...

Personally, I don't plan on signing anybody. Not a one. Nope, not even a backup shortstop. I just don't have Major League cash, that's all there is to it.

LOL.

That's always been a pet peeve of mine as well.

I was just looking through Jason Frasor's gamelogs, and boy has he been struggling. He's gotten the job done, I guess, but he's sure made it close.

Frasor has allowed at least two baserunners in all but one August appearance. He's also averaging 22.6 pitches per inning.

His August line looks like this:

IP	H	R	BB	K
8 1/3	13	7	9	8

Baserunners allowed:

Baserunners	Games
0	0
1	1
2	4
3	3
4	1

Though I suppose Reed Johnson is capable of filling that role against lefties. And Mateo is also righthanded. I guess the Jays will be on the lookout for a switch hitting or lefthanded outfield bat. I wonder if the Angels would part with Jeff Davanon...

When you only have four guys on your bench like the Jays, you're likely only going to have room for one extra outfielder (unless they can play in the infield too). And Reed plays all three spots so another outfielder is really a waste of money. Expecially with a healthy Cat around serving as the DH/LF/RF/1B backup.

I note Lance Berkman is a FA at the end of this year and Houston is weighed down by a lot of big contracts.

Not sure where you got your Berkman info but he has only had five years of service time AFTER this year, so he still have at least one more year until free agency. Players must have six full years of service time before they can become free agents.

The Twins have been pretty successful of late without a ton of power. I'd be happy seeing what Crozier could do at first (especially if his D is as advertised) and put the money towards signing a "bullpen ace" and a "number 2" starter.

I think JP has shown the ability to pick up good bats on the cheap to fill in at DH.

btw, what's better a "smart .300+ hitter" or a toolsy .300+ hitter? ;->

The Twins have hit 39 more homers than the Jays have hit this year.

That would be like adding Adrian Beltre to our (hehe) lineup.

Without Delgado, the Jays would have to find 59 homers just to hit as many as the Twins, and their offense isn't that spectacular. Crozier could maybe hit .. what? 15? Bleh, they need to get some power hitters.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3375
According to baseball prospectus, Berkman is a Free Agent after this year.

COMN and read the Astros section.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3375
Not sure where you got your Lance Berkman info ...

Baseball Prospectus - I think they are generally pretty reliable - are they not? COMN

Baseball Prospectus have it wrong. I count Berkman with less than six years' service after this year.

The belief that Berkman is a FA probably stems from the fact that he's in the final year of a three-year deal. But Berkman will still not be a FA at the end of this year; he will qualify for free agency in 2005 but next year he's only arbitration-eligible.

By the way, not strictly on topic, but is there any reliable source for team news better than the team sites on mlb.com? I think the team correspodents (like Spencer here in Toronto) do a fabulous job.

I only had to google on mlb.com to find a story filed this spring by Astros correspondent Alyson Footer that confirms that Berkman is not a FA.

That's no slam at BP or anything; we all get stuff wrong. I'm just always happy that so much info is available so quickly from MLB.

When you only have four guys on your bench like the Jays, you're likely only going to have room for one extra outfielder (unless they can play in the infield too). And Reed plays all three spots so another outfielder is really a waste of money. Expecially with a healthy Cat around serving as the DH/LF/RF/1B backup.

I suppose Cat fills that role quite well. Between Cat and Reed, you have a good set of tools for stacking a lineup against righthanded or lefthanded pitching. It would not be a huge disaster to have a Cat/Reed platoon at DH next year. They could easily put up a .800 OPS, which would be fine by me.

I think my thought process is still polluted by bad memories of Howie Clark and Dave Berg getting tons of AB in May and June when the Jays had all those injury problems in the OF. Given how righthanded they are right now (Rios, Reed, Wells) it might not be a bad idea to add another lefthanded batter who can play an outfield corner (and/or backup in CF).

Okay, no big deal. The Jays just wait till the Astros non-tender Berkman, then we scoop up and sign him.
:)

I don't expect Berkman to be non-tendered, but his salary next year is going to be similar to if he was a free agent.

It could turn into a Millwood situation.

The Twins have hit 39 more homers than the Jays have hit this year.

That would be like adding Adrian Beltre to our (hehe) lineup.

Not quite, as Hinske's hit a few homers this year.

Personally, I don't plan on signing anybody. Not a one. Nope, not even a backup shortstop. I just don't have Major League cash, that's all there is to it.

LOL. Sorry bout that. I didn't even notice i did that. actually, believe it or not, i too find it annoying when people use "we" to refer to what the team is going to do as well. I nor anyone else here of course, will be signing anyone :)

Don't worry about it, Akira. I do it too... I think we all do.

I nor anyone else here of course, will be signing anyone

Maybe we could have a Batter's Box fundraising event where all the proceeds were donated to the team to pursue Nomar.

And by doing that I think it would imply partial ownership of the team so Bauxites could say things like 'We Win!'.

I am overwhelmed by the brilliance of Pistol's suggestion.

I volunteer to co-ordinate the paypal account for Nomar Donations.

For the record, Akira, I didn't mean to pick on you in particular. Using we/our/us when referring to the team is a pet peeve of mine, and it really seems to be proliferating here lately.

Before everyone hops on the Nomar bandwagon, we should all think about how much Nomar has been injured in the last couple of years, and also, how his defense has taken a major step back because of thos injuries. Cabrera would be a cheaper choice, and could possibly help he team alot more. Provided Boston doesnt resign/overpay him.

Using we/our/us when referring to the team is a pet peeve of mine, and it really seems to be proliferating here lately.

Heh... get used to it. People all over the world describe their rooting interest in the first person plural.

Sweat, I think you're trying to poo-poo the Golden Glory of Nomar! Be advised that people tried to stop our Hentgen For Closer campaign and Pat made it into the bullpen anyways.

Yeah, retirement is sort of like the Bullpen Of Life, isn't it?

You sit on a bench all day, old people sit next to you (SkyDome, at least, in the 100 outfield), and you talk about how good things used to be when you were young.

I can see that.

I'd be in no hurry to sign Nomar. Aaron Hill is a Nomar knockoff, he'll be in the majors late next year, and he could provide half Nomar's production (and more, as the years go by) for about 3% of his asking price.

Aaron Hill is a Nomar knockoff

I can see it now - Aaron Hill wearing a "Garcioperra" jersey. Wait, a Garcioperra Yankees jersey!

I'd settle for Ramon Garciaparra, myself.

I found some change under my desk at work to get the ball rolling.

Holy Nomar sign, Aaron.

Before everyone hops on the Nomar bandwagon

Hey tongue, I'd like to introduce you to someone. Tongue, Cheek. Cheek, Tongue.

I also grabbed the spare change off my desk. I pledge another $0.44

I'm in for $5 (all funds U.S.!))

Aaron, I must say your thermometer is not to scale. But I guess that's the only way we'll encourage people to donate. (Please pledge, we've reached 8/9ths of the way up the scale.)

I pledge $11.23.

Pistol - that is an interesting comparison of the #4 slot vs. the #10 slot. I am still not sold on the arguement that it doesnt matter where the Jays pick.

I think with better statistical data to go with solid scouting (some say improved scouting)...where you draft may have become increasingly more important in the past few years then it ever has in the past...