I can't wait till September so we get a chance to see all the young dudes whilst sipping a Motts Clamato.

http://www.birdsinthebelfry.com
Really enjoy your blog, one of our readers pointed it out last week. I put up a feature today that Jays fans might get a kick out of...it's at

www.birdsinthebelfry.com/pulp_fiction1.htm

Enjoy, and don't dispair...O's fans have frequently been where you are in these recent years. You've got a good man at the helm, so there is always hope.

bob

Heh... good one, Bob.

In yesterday's game chatter, the Towers vs. Miller debate was raised once more. Specifically, who should be the 5th starter in 2005.

While Towers has certainly pitched better than expected this year, he is a man living on the razor's edge. Two numbers stand out in his pitching stats: 4K/9IP and 7 HRA in 83 IP.

Unless Towers has been sprinkled with magical Rueter fairy dust, the K ratio does not bode well (it should be noted that his K ratio in 2003 was 5.9, though in his career it is slightly over 4). Few pitchers can be expected to survive with such a low K rate, though some manage to, if only for a short while.

His HRA rate has been tremendous. But unless homerun prevention is genuinely a newfound skill, a little red flag should be raised. Coming into the season, he had allowed a homerun every 5 innings, a rate much worse than league average. This year, it's down to a homerun every 12 innings, which is excellent.

Miller's injury history may make the battle for 5th starter a moot point, but if it doesn't, I'd still prefer Miller to be given the inside track, with Towers serving as plan B.

During yesterdays telecast, JP said from the booth that they might add another starter but indicated they were pretty satified with their present organisational options. He mentioned a couple bats as the priority.

I agree with Chuck, but going a bit farther, if Miller is sound going into spring training he will win the fifth starters job, it shouldn't be a matter of giving the job to one of Towers or Miller.

However the comment from JP about ten days ago sticks in my head when he said he sees Miller in the pen. I like to hear him elaborate on that thought.

http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
Craig,

I need to talk to a Toronto-based roster member. Where can I email you that's convenient?

As to the starters, I think a healthy Miller has real breakout potential, while Towers and his W-L mikght make him attractive trade bait. DePodesta might appreciate Towers given Dodger stadium.

Jim, go with cburley@hardballtimes.com

Thanks!

Give me the healthy pitcher every time. Josh Towers career line:
314 IP, 372 H, 54 HRA, 44W, 150K. His line drive percentage this year is an average 16.8%.

Can you win with this? Answer: yes. The comparable to Towers is not Rueter (who walks 3 batters per game instead of Towers' 1), but Tewksbury. Towers is an average pitcher if he gives up 10 to 11 hits per game, and a good one if gives up 9 to 10. He's an excellent #5 starter for the next few years.

Posts like Jim's, where someone says they "need" to talk to me, always fill me with concern.

I hate that (no one's fault but my own, of course). I will never know why someone else's urgency always makes me feel like I'm being called on the carpet.

Heh... I'm too sensitive to do something like this. :)

http://me.woot.net
"Is there a Roster member around? It's urgent, I need one of them to deliver my wife's baby!"

Somebody get me some hot water and towels. And get me a coffee, dammit.

I'm of the opinion that since plans for fifth starters rarely work out, it's best to have 2 or 3 options in the system and go with whoever seems most appropriate out of the spring. Continue to pitch that man until he loses the role. Rinse. Repeat.

In yesterday's game chatter, the Towers vs. Miller debate was raised once more. Specifically, who should be the 5th starter in 2005.

I predict that the Jays are going to need both Towers and Miller. You can never, never, never have too much pitching.

http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
Was able to deliver the baby on my own, but Craig's water-boiling tips were invaluable. To paraphrase Homer Simpson, "Box stars... is there anything they don't know?"

I sent the email to both addresses.

Moving on. How 'bout Chairman Spud's plans for contraction? Never mind.

I agree that it's best to go into the season with 6 or 7 options for the rotation. Having Justin Miller in the bullpen to start 2005, with the option of moving him to the rotation as the need arises, seems sensible to me.

I've always thought the #4 starter is more important than the #5...when your #5 starter becomes your #4 because of injuries or failure, you're usually in trouble. A healthy Doc/Bautista/Lilly/Bush should make the difference between Miller and Towers pretty irrelevant. I also like the idea, suggested earlier but I forget by whom, of mixing Towers and Miller against the offenses/parks theit talents are better suited for. "Platooning" mediocre starters seems like it should be done more...

The comparable to Towers is not Rueter (who walks 3 batters per game instead of Towers' 1), but Tewksbury. Towers is an average pitcher if he gives up 10 to 11 hits per game, and a good one if gives up 9 to 10. He's an excellent #5 starter for the next few years.

I agree that Tewksbury is a better comp than Rueter in terms of BB and K rates (I hadn't researched this, only quickly thought of Rueter). However, Tewksbury was able to keep the ball in the yard, unlike Rueter. And while Towers has certainly looked all the world like Tewksbury this year (including HR prevention), his history (albeit brief) of gopheritis is a cause for concern.

I'm not suggesting that a demise is imminent for Towers, only that it wouldn't be a surprise. Pitchers with his profile seem to fail more often than not. That said, I am not advocating getting rid of him. Certainly let's wait to find out for sure. If he turns out to be Tewksbury, terrific.

And with regard to healthy pitchers, I hear you. Miller could well limp his way through his career never once reaching 100 IP in a season.

Miller could well limp his way through his career never once reaching 100 IP in a season.

I meant to say never again reaching 100 IP.

It's interesting to look at Josh's TTO rates have changed this year:

Rate	2004	2001-2003
K/9	4.05	4.38
BB/9	1.75	1.09
HR/9	0.77	1.82

All three suggest that Towers is spending less time over the heart of the plate, which means his success this year may be directly attributed to a change in his pitching style. Either that, or he's pitching worse and getting lucky on the home runs. But I like him, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

I think "platooning" pitchers is an idea that might work well on paper, but not in practice. Subjectively, pitchers perform better when they have clear roles, in the rotation, or in the bullpen. Whne that routine is broken, it leads to unhappy pitchers. Look at how Cory Lidle reacted last year to the idea that the Jays would go to a four man rotation. He complained, even though, (IIRC), the schedule worked out so that all the pitchers were getting their normal rest. Look at how the Jays bullpen imploded when Tosca was playing Closer Roulette. I honestly don't think Towers would be willing to be starter 5b next year. He didn't pitch well early in the season when Tosca had him sit around for 11 days, then started him. It's entirely possible that a schedule would lead the Jays to sit Towers or Miller for a similar period of inactivity. It just boils down to the fact that every starting pitcher wants a spot in the rotation. They don't want to be "Our starter versus teams packed with lefthanders" or "our starter in stadiums that have a tendancy to give up lots of home runs". It'd take a lot of convincing to get a pitcher to buy into it, and then two steady pitchers to make it work. It's not worth the hassle, IMO.

To add to Jonny's point, I'd think that keeping the ball down would be important for a guy like Towers... as long as the GB/FB ratio is high enough, he might be able to get away with not striking guys out.

IP GB/FB
2001 140 0.79
2002 27 0.77
2003 64 1.05
2004 82 1.34

(The "Ryan Drese" theory? Drese's K rate has plunged this year, but he's getting a lot more ground balls, giving up fewer HRs and a lot fewer runs).

I agree that it's best to go into the season with 6 or 7 options for the rotation.

In my charts for the next three years, I am looking at a 30 man Roster, with SP's 6 & 7 and 2 additional RP's and a 26th Man (Bat) over and above the 25 man Roster.

That 26th Man is how I can make a mental case for Gomez and Mighty Mouse to stick around... (not Berg though, he's done!)

What ever happened to:

- de los Santos - hurt his shoulder June 5, is he done?

- Lopez -- Sent down June 10, 6.0, 1.6, with 13 K's and 13 BB over 21 innings

- Kerschener -- Outrighted to Syracuse June 24, 6.0, 1.7, 15K's 8 BB over 22.

- File -- sent down July 22, 5.5, 1.9, 11 K's, 10 BB, over 21.

Are these guys out of the picture now you think?

I think a relevant question is whether Towers wants to come back to Toronto. He's not happy with how little respect he gets from the organization. He also made the "I'm pitching for the other 29 GMs" comment earlier in the year.

Watching the Japan vs. Cuba game. There are about 600 people in the stands.

Everyone on that list Daryn is probably out of the picture for the Jays, except maybe File. But he needs to find a way to get major leaguers out on a consistent basis. Plus he's really only a one-inning guy, which the Jays have in spades.

I know Philly was really interested in him a couple years ago (he was born there) and they have pen problems so I wouldn't be surprised to see File in a Philly uniform one way or the other eventually (via trade or waivers).

I think a relevant question is whether Towers wants to come back to Toronto.

He doesn't have a choice.

I think a relevant question is whether Towers wants to come back to Toronto.

Towers really doesn't have a say for the next four years or so whether he want to come back to Toronto. The Jays control his rights, so if they want him back he comes back.

Everyone on that list Daryn is probably out of the picture for the Jays

yea it looks that way, but I'm surprised they've given up so thorougly on Lopez... he looked like the next Escobar.. I mean, the next Billy Koch.. well.. you know what I mean

He also made the "I'm pitching for the other 29 GMs" comment earlier in the year.

I've thought about this one for a bit and changed my mind on it..

I didn't hear the "tone of voice" but this could be taken to mean, "it doesn't matter if the Jays have given up on me, I am going to pitch my butt off, so someone else will find me"...

It could be taken as a perserverance attitude.

It could be taken as a perserverance attitude.

Daryn, I think that's exactly it. I've totally forgiven that comment.

It's a riot listening to Vic Rauter pronounce the Japanese and Cuban names with such zest. MARUKI NAKAHATA!!

I was going to mention this in the minor league thread, but seeing as Aquilino Lopez' name was mentioned by Daryn, I'll post here. Lopez has has a couple of nice outings in a row in Syracuse.

It is doubtful that he'll be in the Jay organization in 2005, but it would not surprise me at all if he is able to return to his pre-2004 performance level. He was a consistently good pitcher in Seattle's farm system prior to 2003, and had a fine year in 2003 here.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/towerjo01.shtml
Towers really doesn't have a say for the next four years or so whether he want to come back to Toronto. The Jays control his rights, so if they want him back he comes back.

I always assumed Towers had enough service time to be a free agent. Checking baseball-reference's Towers page (COMN), I'm thinking he'll at least be arbitration eligible. Can anyone confirm or deny this?

Italics begone?

I'm not sure if Towers even has one full season to his resume. His first season, 2001, is probably close but I'm gonna guess that he fell short. He hasn't had a full major league season since then either. He'll most likely be a super-2 if he ever gets two full seasons but he won't even be arbitration eligible until after 2005 (after 2006 if 2001 wasn't a full season) at the earliest and a free agent in 2008 (or 2009).

Actually... small error in my last post. Since his super-2 season would be after 2005 (or 2006) he wouldn't be a free agent until after 2009 (or 2010). I'd say we've got some time to decide.

Humbling fact of the day:

Team	W	L	PCT	GB
Montreal Expos	49	68	.419	--
Toronto Blue Jays	49	70	.412	1.0

Possibly Griffen's best line ever in today's column regarding Delgado's forearm to Doug Men*%@)*$...

...following Olympic basketball, it was a second straight night of Puerto Rico rolling over the U.S

It made me laugh out loud.

Hey Daryn, check out minorleaguebaseball.com for updates on where a lot of those guys went. Aquilino has pitched hideously in AAA, with an e.r.a near 8.00. He also seemingly enjoys giving up homeruns.

I'm surprised they've given up so thorougly on Lopez... he looked like the next Escobar.. I mean, the next Billy Koch..

Except for the fact Lopez was about 6 years older than Escobar when he made his MLB debut.

To many snags

Coming into this season, Towers had 1 year and 76 days of service time. (A year is 172 days, by the way). This year, he will add about 130 days, so this off season he will have about 2 years and 35 days. I doubt if that would even make him eligible for arbitration.