For a team that concentrated very heavily on pitching in the 2002 and 2003 amateur drafts and has called up two of its top hitting prospects already this season, the Toronto Blue Jays still have an abundance of interesting hitters in their farm system.
This article is the hitting equivalent to the look at pitching prospects I posted two weeks ago. We begin with a look at league norms for professional baseball in North America; data courtesy of Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus.
Table 1: League Averages
Next, the stats of individual Blue Jay prospects. The "Age" given in the tables below is 2004 Baseball Age; league average age is for hitters only and calculated as of July 1, 2003. Brackets are used to denote players who have moved on to another level of the farm system. Eric Crozier and John Hattig are marked with an asterisk (*) as they spent most of this season with the Buffalo Bisons and Portland SeaDogs, respectively. For both, I'm using their season totals. Thanks to Baseball America for stats for players from Triple-A down to A-ball, and to MinorLeagueBaseball.com for Short-season A-ball stats and Rookie level stats.
Table 2: Unadjusted Stats Of Blue Jay Prospects
Triple-A Syracuse SkyChiefs
Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats
High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
Single-A Charleston Alley Cats
Short-Season-A Auburn Doubledays
Rookie Pulaski Blue Jays
As I did with the pitchers, I translated this data into league-adjusted numbers. These numbers are normalized, such that 100 is the league average, higher is better. At-bats are included so the reader can adjudge for himself if the sample sizes are large enough to be meaningful.
Table 3: Stats Of Blue Jay Prospects, Normalized To League
Triple-A Syracuse SkyChiefs
Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats
High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
Single-A Charleston Alley Cats
Short-Season-A Auburn Doubledays
Rookie Pulaski Blue Jays
Thanks to park factors supplied by Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus, we can now take things one step further and adjust for park. Clay's park factors are "run" park factors, meaning they indicate how much a park suppresses or promotes run-scoring. Of the stats I've included in the tables above, only GPA (Gross Production Average) purports to be a measure of overall offensive production, so it is the only stat I will apply the park factors to. Before we get to this final adjustment, here are the relevant park factors.
Table 4: Park Factors
As 2004 park factors were not available for Auburn and Pulaski, I'm using 2003 park factors as given in Baseball Prospectus 2004. Buffalo is included above as its factor was applied to Eric Crozier's totals in Table 5 below. Similarly, Portland was used for John Hattig.
Table 5: GPA Of Blue Jay Prospects, Normalized To League And Park-Adjusted
Players With 200 Or More At-Bats
Players With Less Than 200 At-Bats
This table is by no means a prospect ranking; GPA is an estimation of a player's performance, not a complete measure. More importantly, age and defence have not been considered, nevermind 'tools' or injuries or performance prior to 2004. I do find this data instructive to the question of which players look ready for promotion; My buddy Charles Anderson, at 22 years old and causing nightmares for Rookie-level pitchers, should be on his way up real soon. Meanwhile, previously unheralded Raul Tablado is looking like the real deal. Any questions about why J.P. was interested in acquiring Hattig and Crozier? Didn't think so.
What says the Box?
This article is the hitting equivalent to the look at pitching prospects I posted two weeks ago. We begin with a look at league norms for professional baseball in North America; data courtesy of Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus.
Table 1: League Averages
League LEV AB GPA AVG OBP SLG IsoD IsoP
PIO R+ 13,640 .279 .286 .379 .432 .093 .146
PCL AAA 63,279 .272 .284 .354 .452 .070 .168
CAL A+ 39,494 .264 .278 .352 .422 .074 .144
INT AAA 54,437 .261 .271 .340 .431 .069 .160
AL MLB 54,194 .260 .270 .338 .431 .068 .161
TEX AA 30,696 .256 .270 .343 .408 .073 .138
NL MLB 60,624 .255 .263 .333 .422 .070 .159
EAS AA 46,024 .254 .263 .337 .409 .074 .146
SAL A 60,370 .253 .260 .340 .401 .080 .141
NWN A- 13,675 .253 .260 .343 .395 .083 .135
APP R+ 15,445 .251 .261 .343 .388 .082 .127
SOU AA 37,017 .251 .261 .333 .403 .072 .142
CAR A+ 29,824 .249 .264 .339 .384 .075 .120
FLA A+ 44,291 .244 .257 .333 .375 .076 .118
MID A 52,998 .243 .255 .329 .381 .074 .126
NYP A- 23,371 .238 .251 .325 .365 .074 .114
Overall avg: 39,961 .255 .266 .341 .406 .075 .140
Next, the stats of individual Blue Jay prospects. The "Age" given in the tables below is 2004 Baseball Age; league average age is for hitters only and calculated as of July 1, 2003. Brackets are used to denote players who have moved on to another level of the farm system. Eric Crozier and John Hattig are marked with an asterisk (*) as they spent most of this season with the Buffalo Bisons and Portland SeaDogs, respectively. For both, I'm using their season totals. Thanks to Baseball America for stats for players from Triple-A down to A-ball, and to MinorLeagueBaseball.com for Short-season A-ball stats and Rookie level stats.
Table 2: Unadjusted Stats Of Blue Jay Prospects
Triple-A Syracuse SkyChiefs
Name Age AB GPA AVG OBP SLG IsoD IsoP
Eric Crozier* 25 303 .314 .297 .377 .578 .080 .281
Howie Clark 30 155 .296 .303 .414 .439 .111 .136
(Gabe Gross) 24 377 .285 .294 .381 .454 .087 .160
Glenn Williams 26 392 .267 .260 .320 .492 .060 .232
Julius Matos 29 196 .264 .301 .341 .444 .040 .143
Anton French 28 156 .263 .269 .343 .436 .074 .167
Russ Adams 23 382 .256 .277 .353 .390 .076 .113
Simon Pond 27 269 .250 .268 .316 .431 .048 .163
G. Quiroz 22 186 .247 .226 .318 .414 .092 .188
Jorge Sequea 23 257 .238 .257 .332 .354 .075 .097
(Alexis Rios) 23 185 .225 .259 .292 .373 .033 .114
League 27.6 - .261 .271 .340 .431 .069 .160
Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Name Age AB GPA AVG OBP SLG IsoD IsoP
John Hattig* 24 311 .311 .293 .405 .514 .112 .221
(Anton French) 28 124 .282 .282 .362 .476 .080 .194
JF Griffin 24 371 .264 .245 .333 .456 .088 .211
Aaron Hill 22 402 .258 .279 .357 .388 .078 .109
Dominic Rich 24 420 .253 .271 .350 .383 .079 .112
Tyrell Godwin 24 426 .240 .256 .327 .373 .071 .117
Maikel Jova 23 387 .237 .276 .298 .413 .022 .137
League 25.0 - .254 .263 .337 .409 .074 .146
High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
Name Age AB GPA AVG OBP SLG IsoD IsoP
Raul Tablado 22 260 .312 .308 .358 .604 .050 .296
Big Vito 23 393 .288 .282 .384 .461 .102 .179
Ron Davenport 22 365 .284 .285 .349 .507 .064 .222
Carlo Cota 23 382 .272 .296 .360 .440 .064 .144
Miguel Negron 21 310 .258 .271 .348 .406 .077 .135
Ryan Roberts 23 147 .258 .272 .358 .388 .086 .116
John Schneider 24 153 .249 .190 .365 .340 .175 .150
Jayce Tingler 23 373 .248 .252 .384 .300 .132 .048
(Rodney Medina) 22 197 .241 .259 .321 .386 .062 .127
Manny Mayorson 21 267 .194 .228 .289 .255 .061 .027
League 23.2 - .244 .257 .333 .375 .076 .118
Single-A Charleston Alley Cats
Name Age AB GPA AVG OBP SLG IsoD IsoP
(Ryan Roberts) 23 226 .322 .283 .440 .496 .157 .213
Clint Johnston 27 386 .287 .269 .390 .446 .121 .177
Chris Snavely 22 265 .279 .249 .362 .464 .113 .215
Joey Reiman 23 324 .277 .290 .380 .423 .090 .133
David Smith 23 347 .272 .268 .363 .435 .095 .167
Jermy Acey 23 118 .262 .297 .366 .390 .069 .093
Mike Galloway 21 338 .236 .249 .317 .373 .068 .124
Robinzon Diaz 20 353 .229 .272 .319 .343 .047 .071
Juan Peralta 21 356 .197 .225 .282 .281 .057 .056
League 22.3 - .253 .260 .340 .401 .080 .141
Short-Season-A Auburn Doubledays
Name Age AB GPA AVG OBP SLG IsoD IsoP
Brian Hall 22 149 .307 .302 .388 .530 .086 .223
Chip Cannon 22 148 .291 .291 .344 .547 .053 .256
Curtis Thigpen 21 108 .286 .287 .358 .500 .071 .214
Adam Lind 20 180 .285 .322 .374 .467 .052 .182
Joe Metropoulos 20 80 .282 .275 .363 .475 .088 .193
Eric Nielsen 22 147 .278 .279 .373 .442 .094 .164
Ryan Klosterman 22 172 .277 .297 .363 .453 .066 .176
Jarad Mangioni 20 94 .273 .277 .358 .447 .081 .174
Vinny Esposito 23 136 .243 .243 .335 .368 .092 .125
Aaron Mathews 22 190 .239 .274 .346 .332 .072 .093
League 21.9 - .238 .251 .325 .365 .074 .114
Rookie Pulaski Blue Jays
Name Age AB GPA AVG OBP SLG IsoD IsoP
Chuck Anderson 22 125 .335 .320 .437 .552 .117 .217
Yuber Rodriguez 20 168 .321 .321 .412 .542 .091 .221
Nick Thomas 21 126 .307 .278 .413 .484 .135 .177
Eugenio Velez 22 104 .282 .298 .365 .471 .067 .189
Brian Bormaster 22 108 .259 .241 .344 .417 .103 .158
L. Hetherington 21 148 .251 .243 .329 .412 .086 .161
Jay Ashford 20 112 .247 .241 .325 .402 .084 .155
Emmanuel Sena 19 126 .226 .214 .344 .286 .130 .060
League 20.9 - .251 .261 .343 .388 .082 .127
As I did with the pitchers, I translated this data into league-adjusted numbers. These numbers are normalized, such that 100 is the league average, higher is better. At-bats are included so the reader can adjudge for himself if the sample sizes are large enough to be meaningful.
Table 3: Stats Of Blue Jay Prospects, Normalized To League
Triple-A Syracuse SkyChiefs
Name Age AB GPA AVG OBP SLG IsoD IsoP
Eric Crozier* 25 303 120 110 111 134 116 176
Howie Clark 30 155 114 112 122 102 161 85
(Gabe Gross) 24 377 109 108 112 105 126 100
Glenn Williams 26 392 102 96 94 114 87 145
Julius Matos 29 196 101 111 100 103 58 89
Anton French 28 156 101 99 101 101 107 104
Russ Adams 23 382 98 102 104 90 110 71
Simon Pond 27 269 96 99 93 100 70 102
G. Quiroz 22 186 95 83 94 96 133 118
Jorge Sequea 23 257 91 95 98 82 109 61
(Alexis Rios) 23 185 86 96 86 87 48 71
Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Name Age AB GPA AVG OBP SLG IsoD IsoP
John Hattig* 24 311 122 111 120 126 151 151
(Anton French) 28 124 111 107 107 116 108 133
JF Griffin 24 371 104 93 99 111 119 145
Aaron Hill 22 402 101 106 106 95 105 75
Dominic Rich 24 420 100 103 104 94 107 77
Tyrell Godwin 24 426 95 97 97 91 96 80
Maikel Jova 23 387 93 105 88 101 30 94
High-A Dunedin Blue Jays
Name Age AB GPA AVG OBP SLG IsoD IsoP
Raul Tablado 22 260 128 120 108 161 66 251
Big Vito 23 393 118 110 115 123 134 152
Ron Davenport 22 365 117 111 105 135 84 188
Carlo Cota 23 382 112 115 108 117 84 122
Miguel Negron 21 310 106 105 105 108 101 114
Ryan Roberts 23 147 106 106 108 103 113 98
John Schneider 24 153 102 74 110 91 230 127
Jayce Tingler 23 373 102 98 115 80 174 41
(Rodney Medina) 22 197 99 101 96 103 82 108
Manny Mayorson 21 267 80 89 87 68 80 23
Single-A Charleston Alley Cats
Name Age AB GPA AVG OBP SLG IsoD IsoP
(Ryan Roberts) 23 226 127 109 129 124 196 151
Clint Johnston 27 386 113 103 115 111 151 126
Chris Snavely 22 265 110 96 106 116 141 152
Joey Reiman 23 324 109 112 112 105 113 94
David Smith 23 347 107 103 107 108 119 118
Jermy Acey 23 118 104 114 108 97 86 66
Mike Galloway 21 338 93 96 93 93 85 88
Robinzon Diaz 20 353 91 105 94 86 59 50
Juan Peralta 21 356 78 87 83 70 71 40
Short-Season-A Auburn Doubledays
Name Age AB GPA AVG OBP SLG IsoD IsoP
Brian Hall 22 149 129 120 119 145 117 195
Chip Cannon 22 148 123 116 106 150 71 224
Curtis Thigpen 21 108 121 114 110 137 96 188
Adam Lind 20 180 120 128 115 128 71 159
Joe Metropoulos 20 80 119 110 112 130 118 169
Eric Nielsen 22 147 117 111 115 121 127 144
Ryan Klosterman 22 172 116 118 112 124 89 155
Jarad Mangioni 20 94 115 110 110 122 110 153
Vinny Esposito 23 136 102 97 103 101 125 110
Aaron Mathews 22 190 100 109 106 91 97 82
Rookie Pulaski Blue Jays
Name Age AB GPA AVG OBP SLG IsoD IsoP
Chuck Anderson 22 125 133 123 127 142 143 171
Yuber Rodriguez 20 168 128 123 120 140 111 174
Nick Thomas 21 126 122 107 120 125 165 140
Eugenio Velez 22 104 112 114 106 121 82 149
Brian Bormaster 22 108 103 92 100 107 126 124
L. Hetherington 21 148 100 93 96 106 105 127
Jay Ashford 20 112 98 92 95 104 103 122
Emmanuel Sena 19 126 90 82 100 74 159 47
Thanks to park factors supplied by Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus, we can now take things one step further and adjust for park. Clay's park factors are "run" park factors, meaning they indicate how much a park suppresses or promotes run-scoring. Of the stats I've included in the tables above, only GPA (Gross Production Average) purports to be a measure of overall offensive production, so it is the only stat I will apply the park factors to. Before we get to this final adjustment, here are the relevant park factors.
Table 4: Park Factors
Team Level Park Factor
Toronto MLB 1050
Syracuse AAA 1044
Buffalo AAA 989
New Hampshire AA 978
Portland AA 1034
Dunedin A+ 1049
Charleston WV A 1036
Auburn A- 1005
Pulaski R+ 1010
As 2004 park factors were not available for Auburn and Pulaski, I'm using 2003 park factors as given in Baseball Prospectus 2004. Buffalo is included above as its factor was applied to Eric Crozier's totals in Table 5 below. Similarly, Portland was used for John Hattig.
Table 5: GPA Of Blue Jay Prospects, Normalized To League And Park-Adjusted
Players With 200 Or More At-Bats
Name Age Level AB GPA+
--------------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Raul Tablado 22 A+ 260 125
(Ryan Roberts) 23 A 226 125
Eric Crozier* 25 AAA 303 121
John Hattig* 24 AA 311 120
Big Vito 23 A+ 393 115
--------------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Ron Davenport 22 A+ 365 114
Clint Johnston 27 A 386 111
Carlo Cota 23 A+ 382 109
Chris Snavely 22 A 265 108
Joey Reiman 23 A 324 107
--------------- ------- ------- ------- -------
(Gabe Gross) 24 AAA 377 107
David Smith 23 A 347 106
JF Griffin 24 AA 371 105
Miguel Negron 21 A+ 310 103
Aaron Hill 22 AA 402 103
--------------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Dominic Rich 24 AA 420 101
Glenn Williams 26 AAA 392 100
Jayce Tingler 23 A+ 373 99
Russ Adams 23 AAA 382 96
Tyrell Godwin 24 AA 426 96
--------------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Maikel Jova 23 AA 387 95
Simon Pond 27 AAA 269 94
Mike Galloway 21 A 338 91
Jorge Sequea 23 AAA 257 89
Robinzon Diaz 20 A 353 89
--------------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Manny Mayorson 21 A+ 267 78
Juan Peralta 21 A 356 76
Players With Less Than 200 At-Bats
Name Age Level AB GPA+
--------------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Chuck Anderson 22 R+ 125 132
Brian Hall 22 A- 149 129
Yuber Rodriguez 20 R+ 168 127
Chip Cannon 22 A- 148 122
Nick Thomas 21 R+ 126 121
--------------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Curtis Thigpen 21 A- 108 120
Adam Lind 20 A- 180 120
Joe Metropoulos 20 A- 80 118
Eric Nielsen 22 A- 147 117
Ryan Klosterman 22 A- 172 116
--------------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Jarad Mangioni 20 A- 94 115
(Anton French) 28 AA 124 112
Eugenio Velez 22 R+ 104 112
Howie Clark 30 AAA 155 111
Ryan Roberts 23 A+ 147 103
--------------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Brian Bormaster 22 R+ 108 103
Vinny Esposito 23 A- 136 102
Jermy Acey 23 A 118 102
Aaron Mathews 22 A- 190 100
John Schneider 24 A+ 153 100
--------------- ------- ------- ------- -------
L. Hetherington 21 R+ 148 99
Julius Matos 29 AAA 196 99
Anton French 28 AAA 156 99
Jay Ashford 20 R+ 112 98
(Rodney Medina) 22 A+ 197 96
--------------- ------- ------- ------- -------
G. Quiroz 22 AAA 186 92
Emmanuel Sena 19 R+ 126 90
(Alexis Rios) 23 AAA 185 84
This table is by no means a prospect ranking; GPA is an estimation of a player's performance, not a complete measure. More importantly, age and defence have not been considered, nevermind 'tools' or injuries or performance prior to 2004. I do find this data instructive to the question of which players look ready for promotion; My buddy Charles Anderson, at 22 years old and causing nightmares for Rookie-level pitchers, should be on his way up real soon. Meanwhile, previously unheralded Raul Tablado is looking like the real deal. Any questions about why J.P. was interested in acquiring Hattig and Crozier? Didn't think so.
What says the Box?
