Well holy shit. Wilner just answered probably three callers asking about Tosca's status by saying there is no way they can him until the off-season.

Guess not.

As I posted in the other thread....

I'm a bit suprised this move was made this soon. I figured they might do this with a little time left in the season, like what happened with Cito, but I didn't think Tosca would bite the bullet this soon. I wonder if they potentially are giving Gibbons an audition as manager, to see if he can make an impression. Gibbons would certainly get on well with the rest of the coaching staff.

I just hope we don't see a wholesale change in the coaching staff with a new manager. I think Butterfield, Patterson and the rest of them appear to be a pretty good coaching staff, and if we hire a new manager and have to bring in a bunch of his guys, we may suffer losses on the coaching end of the equation.

It's a dilemma, because you don't want to handicap a guy by forcing him to work with guys he doesn't have a good relationship with, but I'd hate to see Butterfield, Gibbons and some of the others go.

Zuh!!?!?!!

JP on the Fan in the next half hour to talk about the move.

I wonder how common it is for managers to be canned in the middle of a series, like Tosca was this year. It seems to usually be at the end of a series.

Well, Gross will get a new manager in his fourth day in the majors.

Think the Jays will have their head in the game when they try to fend off the sweep tomorrow morning?

If anyone gets word of Tosca appearing on TV or Radio to discuss this, please let us Bauxites know.

Here's an interview Coach did with Gibbons in June of 2003.

Any money on who tomorrow will point out the ethnicity of the immediate past and current interim manager?

Wilner's on the radio, and says JP will be on after the update.

JP was on the FAN during the game today..don't remember any mention of the manager. Guess he's good at keeping this stuff under wraps.

Thanks for the heads up Smiley.

I'm fairly surprised about this. There has been tons of talk about Tosca being canned, but I always just kinda thought he was JP's guy.

As someone said earlier, this might not be, and in fact probably was a decision that came from higher up the organization. For all we know, JP is as mad at this news as anyone.

What's the over/under on how many of the "idiots", aka Griffin, Baker, Simmons, Elliot - write that JP should have been the one to go?

They will take a big step forward next year.

They will take a big step forward next year.

It will sure take a big step forward to match 2003's record.

Can someone post when JP comes on? I don't really feel like listening to these callers. Heh.

Yeah, I'll let you know.

JP is on right now.

JP is about to come on now

JP's ON!

JP's on right now and there sounds like an honest touch of remorse in his voice. He said the team really looked flat in the last three games (to state the obvious).

JP is talking about how poorly the team has come out of spring training these last two years under Tosca--fair enough. Escpecially this year, when the schedule was pretty soft.

Funny, i just heard Tosca on Ed Randall's show on WFAN in NY this morning. He's a bright articulate guy who I like, I just thought this was the right move 4 months ago. It's nothing personal, just the way the game works.

JP refused to criticise any decisions Tosca made specifically, or any specific weaknesses. He stated that the poor starts were really dissapointing to him, and that was one thing that factored into the decision.

Any guesses on who will be the next Blue Jay manager for 2005?

Sean McNally at Primer just suggested Bobby Valentine, which would be rad. I don't see it, though.

I don't see Valentine as being a good fit with the Jays. How about Willie Randolph of the Yanks?

I said this in the other thread already. This was the right move. A little late for my taste because the team has been playing embarrassingly flat all season. The handling of the bullpen was terrible, although not as bad as the bullpen itself. I'm glad that 2005 is starting now. Time to start things fresh. Good move, JP.

Right now everyone's talking about Paul Molitor taking over. So that should mean anybody but Paul Molitor will be coach next year.

Please unbody but Bobby Valentine!

Outside of Whitt, you gotta think, that Oakland coach already has an office in Toronto, is it Ron Washington?

What's JP going to do, go for experience or scour the minors for some Tony LaRussa wana be.

I'm loving Wilner v. Robert.

It's funny, I spent half an hour composing a post in the game thread about reasons for optimism for next year. I predicted therein that Tosca, although he's improved somewhat this year, probably wouldn't be back next season.

The reason I drew that conclusion was something I only really noticed when writing that post: I've rarely seen the "Fighting Jays" this season that I often saw last season. Too often, this team seemed to be just punching the clock every day. Players are of course responsible for their performances, but ultimate responsibility rests with their leader. Tosca started off his Jays tenure wonderfully, benching Mondesi in his first week on the job, and seemed to be exactly the fiery leader a young team would respond to. Instead, he regressed until he seemed to be second-guessing every move he made. It was particularly painful to watch him as he helped the bullpen self-immolate earlier this year.

He seems like a very decent guy, and I'm sorry he lost his job. But as I pointed out earlier this year: this team has performed poorly even aside from the injuries and the bad luck, and a reckoning was at hand. I personally think the coaching staff will not survive intact next season either.

As for the timing: JP is currently saying that he was disappointed by the poor starts. Well, the start of the season was awhile ago, so if he wanted a change then, he could have made one. I've always said you should never fire a manager unless he clearly has lost the attention and/or respect of his ballclub. There's plenty of evidence that that had occurred here -- we've all heard about the alienation of the relievers, and as I say, I don't think the team was exerting itself much lately. If I'm running a ballclub that appears to have learned to take losing in stride, I'm going to make some major changes immediately. So accordingly, I think the timing is defensible, particularly if this is an audition for John Gibbons.

I'll also say this: with the Phelps trade, the Tosca firing, and who knows what coming down the pipe next week, I think JP Ricciardi has the undivided attention of his major-league employees. We may not recognize this ballclub by January.

HA HA HA....classic Wilner call right there. The caller should be on the Wilner caller hall of fame/shame. Wilner ended the call with this line when the caller said that Mike wasn't watching the same team as him

Wilner: No, you're right. One of us knows what he's talking about and the other is a knee jerk reactionist.

FIVE TOOL HOST!

No Gibbons, Wilner is out. Talk to you later, folks.

NO Wilner! Dont leave us! Now we have to go back to espn radio and talk of the offseason signings of the Washington Redskins and the new line up of the Duke Blue Devils. This interuption was at least one good thing about the Tosca firing.

How about Cito as the new Jays coach? If J.P. could convince him to accept his system, boyohboy it would be nice to have Cito back. And even though he's been pissed at the organization in the past, I bet he'd jump at the chance to manage again.

Ron Washington is an interesting name, an excellent baseball man who has paid his share of dues both in summer and in winter leagues.

I think if he is really a candidate he would have to be given more leeway than Tosca--it always seemed like J.P. was making the lineup. Washington is a strong personality, he would not go for that.

I wish Carlos Tosca well. While I agree with the decision to fire him, he could on another team, at another time, be a good manager. He did learn some things over his tenure here, and he does deserve another shot.

If anybody here suggests Jimy Williams or Larry Bowa as a replacement, I don't know what I'll do, but I'll do something.

My guess for the next boss would be Washington or Joe Madden(?) of the Angels.

Well now im just curious!

I suggest Jimy Williams and Larry Bowa as co-coaches next year.

Not Cito. I had enough of him the first time. Besides, I get the idea from how he comes across in public that he considers himself the Grand Old Man of Toronto baseball and wouldn't take much direction from the front office.

Not Molitor. I want someone with experience, preferably more experience than Whitt has.

On the other hand, I don't want some Fregosi guy who's just a collection of his past failures.

Who's that leave?

Even when things were going well last year, there were signs that Carlos would not be a suitable manager to take them to the "Next Level". Me Grimlock always felt that the Jays would Art Howe him. When the wheels fell off this year, it became increasingly clear that he had to go. The team was mailing it in. And when Wells and Delgado came back, there were no more excuses.

Why don't they bring back Tim Johnson? :

How about...John Gibbons?

Jubu has been banned by the Cabal. His bannishment comes into effect when the Cabal's existance is verified. Until that time he is free to post.

On a more serious note, I'm slightly surprised at the timing. JP chose to do it right after a particularly rough loss/series, which comes off as more of a gut reaction than civillized decision-making process. I'm not saying that was the case but I'm sure the critics can/will spin it that way (as well as tacking on the "haha, we were right" song and dance).

Coincidentally, Jobu will face the same penalty as Jubu :-)

Dierker baby, Dierker.

Man, I feel sorry for that Jubu loser.... heh heh, sucker.

Anyways, how did the sport of bobsledding get invented? Did someone just discover a tunnel of hard ice or did some rich yahoo just build it?

Ahhh damnit, lousy posting delays.

This season isn't his fault, but Tosca wasn't coming back, because nobody (players, management, fans) wanted that "here we go again" feeling if the team stumbles out of the blocks in 2005. A new man would have been in place before spring training, no matter what happened in the remaining two months.

One reason for making the move now is to evaluate John Gibbons, who has been a winner at every other level, as a candidate for the permanent job. Gibby went 48-18 in the Appalachian League in 1995, his first season as a manager, winning a championship and Manager of the Year honours. He moved up to the FSL the next season and did it again, winning another title. In his only season in the Eastern League, he was Manager of the Year again, going 82-60 and losing in the semifinals. He led Triple-A Norfolk to an 85-57 record in 2001. The guy should have been managing the Mets by now, but was passed over for reasons unknown.

Gibby is 3-0 in the AL already, filling in for Tosca last season. Before hiring someone with no managerial experience or a recycled oldtimer, why not see how the club responds to his leadership?

Wilner will have the new skipper and J.P. on BJTW in just a minute.

Has Larry Bowa been fired as well?

Well, well, well... I was ecstatic when I heard the news on the radio. My game post was so depressed... today's game was the first time I shut off the Jays to listen to music or something. And I honestly wasn't looking forward to the next game. Now we have something interesting to watch: let's see how Gibbons does.

I really thought Tosca should have been fired in late April or early May when it was clear he still didn't know how to handle a bullpen. I just didn't want to see the entire season wasted. But the season was wasted. Really, all those injuries - you could say - saved Tosca his job. When those big guys started going down JP couldn't have fired him.

Thank you JP for not waiting until the end of the season. Thank you for giving us something now! 7 weeks is a long time to talk about next year.

Today's lineup was so indicative. Berg at 2B is the sign of a desperate manager.

I will give some creedence to the theory that this was a Godfrey decision. The firing of Tosca and the trading of Josh Phelps don't mesh: they seem the work of two different men. And JP going on about the poor start and then the firing this late in the season doesn't really add up either.

Still, whoever made the decision, it was the right one. As a fan I feel reinvigorated. I haven't felt this good since Jimy Williams got the sack. It's going to be a little more fun watching the Jays these next two months now.

Best of luck Tosca in the future. But good move (albeit belated) by our front office.

Thanks for the heads up Coach, listening now.

I agree about Gibbons and look forward to seeing what the next seven-eight weeks bring.

Anyone know what type of coach Gibbons is? Is he a scream and yell coach, or is he go do whatever the hell you want but play hard for me because Im old- coach?

Jobu, he sure isn't old -- he's only 42!

Gibby is a laid-back, easygoing guy with a great sense of humour. He's also an experienced baseball man, who caught more than 1,100 professional games and hit over .400 in one of his brief big-league callups, with the world champion '86 Mets. If he can get the players to have as much fun as he does at the ballpark, they'll do well. I'm not suggesting that everyone was tense under Tosca, but the atmosphere might be lighter and more relaxed the rest of the year, which isn't a bad thing.

Jobu, he sure isn't old -- he's only 42!

...and that, folks, is where numbers become subjective ;-)

Gibby actually sounds pretty good by that resume. But I guess the question is what kind of coach do these young blue jays respond too? The scream and yell or the watch and see?

Personally, I'd like to see a manager that actually manages the team during the game. Someone who exploits the tools his players bring to the game. Pinella, Larusa and Scioscia spring to mind. Obviously those guys aren't available but serve to illustrate what I'm getting at.

With the Jays about to loose Delgado there is a huge hole to fill in the power game. Big bats cost loads of dough and this team is not financially committed. Hustle is next to free.

The verdict of the fans is already in. Bluejays baseball is down right boring. The fans pay there hard earned money to be entertained and right now they're not buying.

Tosca is a bit of a scapegoat. I sure hope management is reflecting hard today. This move alone does nothing to put another butt in the seat.

I wonder now if Phelps was really in the managers doghouse or was he under direction from the GM?

Some questionable moves this week at least in terms of timing.

Best of luck CT.

Wilner just asked Jobu's question...

Gibbson doesn't answer questions as straight as some so he says he'll let the media/fans decide what kind of coach he is.

Jobu, I don't think there are any scream-and-yell managers left anymore -- other than Larry Bowa, who's hanging by a thread, and Lou Piniella, who's working strictly from aura these days. Yelling managers in baseball go over about as well as yelling managers in any workplace -- lead balloonish. There's only one good type of managing: the kind that gets people to produce at their highest level. The style by which you achieve that result -- and it will often differ from employee to employee -- is largely irrelevant. A manager who gets his employees to actually listen to him has won more than half the battle; I've never yet listened to anyone who screamed their instructions.

Gibby called it "bittersweet" to replace his friend, but he's excited. He knew the change was a possibility, and realized he was a leading candidate if they needed an interim skipper, but it still came as a surprise. "Maybe a change will help," he says, suggesting he might do some "tinkering" with the lineup, but not until he's talked to everyone involved.

He's certainly philosophical about the opportunity, telling Wilner, "I've got nothing to lose, and everything to gain."

Tosca is a bit of a scapegoat.

For sure. I've said it before -- no manager could have won here this year. As J.P. said, he's taking a long look in the mirror about his own responsibility for the lost season, and he hopes every player does the same. Carlos is an admirable man who knows the game inside out and deserves another chance.

One interesting I thought about JP's interview at 5 was that he mentioned two or three times that Gibbons has professional baseball experience, of which Tosca didn't have. This surprised me because I didn't think that was a big deal to JP.

Myself, while I definately don't think it's necessary to have professional playing experience to manage from a tactical standpoint, the players still have to buy in. If the players think you need professional experience, then maybe you have to use a manager with that no matter what you think.

I wonder if that has played into JP's decision today (and next year).

With Wilner, JP said being a player was the only substantial difference in their resumes but had no impact on his decision to appoint Gibbons.

Let me just throw a name out there as a guy who was a terrific manager for a short time but didn't get a fair shot from a new regime ...

Jerry Narron.

I liked Tosca (I met him about a year ago) so I'm sad to see him get fired. Having said that it was time for a change.

As for the other coaches, I don't really see where any of them are doing that noticably great of a job, with maybe the exception of Butterfield with the fielders (most notably Hinske).

Dierker baby, Dierker

That was actually my first thought as well.

I really really really hope that Godfrey had nothing to do with this move. Just look at the basketball team to see what happens when upper management tries to interfere with the day to day operations of the team.

And put me on the Dierker bandwagon. As long as he's learned how to not piss off the team's stars he'll be perfect.

I do not buy the Godfrey theory at all. I just don't see J.P taking this job on without his 'roles and responsibilities' being very clearly defined and I think he would have made sure that include absolute control of playing, managing/coaching and scouting personnel.

I thought of Dierker too but I figured it'd only be a matter of time before this crowd mentioned him so I didn't bother.

He was a big strikeout pitcher for the Astros in the late '60s/early '70s, and later was their announcer. Was hired out of the booth to be their manager a few years ago and did a pretty good job. Wrote a book called 'This Ain't Brain Surgery' or something like that; apparently it was good too.

In 'Ball Four', Jim Bouton quotes someone on the subject of Dierker. Whoever it was says, approvingly, that Dierker is a 'cold, fish-eyed son of a bitch' on the mound.

Jobu, he managed Houston in the late 90's and took them to the playoffs 4 times in 5 (?) years but kept losing to Atlanta in the first round. I don't really have much of a recollection of what kind of manager he was, but, I'm sure someone will

Tosca had to go (but he's a class act and I like him).

A managers job is to get the best out of his players. Hinske, Phelps, Wells, Delgado, and the O'Dawg have all regressed BADLY with the bat. Carlos' job is to turn them around. He didn't and or couldn't...been good to know ya.

From where we as fans sit, it's hard to judge how well a manager is doing. We don't see the clubhouse, and we don't see how much pain players are playing through, among other things.

But, at this point, I think Tosca's firing was probably a good move, just because change is needed to snap the team out of the doldrums. While I don't think the offense is as good as it looked last June, they're capable of getting more than five hits a game.

Tosca's greatest fault, from this perspective, is that he tinkered too much. Consider:

- Speier, Adams, and Ligtenberg were all handed the closer spot, and then each removed from it after about two weeks. Had Frasor not had a hot spell after being given the job, Tosca would have likely rotated through them all again.

- The back end of the bullpen was on a constant shuttle back and forth between Toronto and Syracuse. File, Nakamura and Lopez have all been promoted and demoted at least twice this season, and Frederick would likely have been the next to hop back on the Syracuse shuttle.

- How many players have batted leadoff this year? Johnson, Cat, Rios, Hudson, Gomez, Menechino - did I miss any? Sure, the Jays have been battered by injuries, but Rios and Hudson both spent about a week in the leadoff position before Tosca felt compelled to tinker again.

This doesn't mean that Tosca is a bad manager - it's just that the Jays' needs have changed, and Tosca's strengths don't quite match the team's needs any more.

I suspect that there will be more changes for the sake of change - this particular configuration of players and coaches is suffering from a collective malaise. Any further setbacks will lead to a collective case of "here we go again", and the club needs some new people in there to change the mix.

As for J.P.: I think he'll have to put on his tin helmet and duck behind a supporting trench for a while, as there will be people aiming bullets at him. This despite the fact that most of what he tried in the offseason has mostly worked. Of the three new starting pitchers, two have been more or less effective. And, while the bullpen has struggled, it's still better than last year's. (Compare Frasor/Chulk/Ligtenberg/Speier to Lopez/Tam/Sturtze.) And some of the young players have improved dramatically (Rios, Bush, and possibly Gross). It's all the parts that were supposedly in place that fell apart - plus, there was all the injuries.

Anyone who feels that J.P. needs to be replaced has to ask themselves what they would have done better. What strategy should the Jays pursue that they are not already pursuing (given that "sign lots of free agents" isn't an option)?

I suspect that there will be more changes for the sake of change - this particular configuration of players and coaches is suffering from a collective malaise.

Dave, I agree with much of what you said, but I'm not sure that future changes would simply be for the sake of change, particularly on the coaching staff; I think they'd be to improve performance. The more I think about Josh Phelps' regression, the more annoyed I am that he didn't develop. Obviously Phelps needs to take a lot of responsibility, but he's not the only player who hasn't developed the way he was expected, or the only one who regressed. There seems to be more going on with this team than just a manager whose teams started slow out of the gate.

"The back end of the bullpen was on a constant shuttle back and forth between Toronto and Syracuse. File, Nakamura and Lopez have all been promoted and demoted at least twice this season, and Frederick would likely have been the next to hop back on the Syracuse shuttle."

The General Manager makes these decisions.

Can anyone provide me with a brief resume and reasons he would suit the Fighting Jays?

Although I can't point to anything, I remember reading Dierker quotes in the past couple years that were very 'sabrmetric friendly'.

My only regret about the Phelps and Tosca moves is their order. I would have liked to have seen how Phelps would have done with a different Manager. It sometimes happens that a young player does not have the confidence of a manager (Shawn Green/Cito Gaston comes to mind), and this affects the player's development. I do not know if this was an issue in Phelps' case.

Anyways, what's done is done. I do not think that great change in player personnel is in order for this club. If all proceeds as planned, the Jays will have added Rios, Bush, Gross, Adams and Quiroz between May 04 and July 05. With all those rookie additions, the team needs stability in the remainder of the roster.

Next season is vital for the Jays and most importantly JP. If the Jays scuffle and don't at least play .500 ball I feel like JP's going to get the axe and the Jays will start from ground zero again.

The bottom line in sports is winning and making money. Both of which aren't being accomplished under the JP era.

I'm disappointed the AAA team is dreadful.

While it's still too early I'm not excited about the Phelps trade or his 2 first round picks (Adams,Hill).

JP's job is to put a winning product on the field and he hasn't accomplished that this season. And this is a what have you done for me lately business.

With each passing day the more I want JP to get fired (this season has really demoralized me as a fan, I feel like an abuse victim. Even though I feel like I get punched in the face everyday I still come back for more because I love the Jays so much)

Ron, I noticed you omitted the AA team downwards, which are predominately composed of JP draft picks, while you pick on the AAA team and Adams and Hill, neither of whom is outstanding, but neither of whom is among the bottom half of first round picks that year either.

'I'm disappointed the AAA team is dreadful.'

To me minor league records mean absolutely nothing. The fact that Syracuse stinks doesn't bother me in the least. The fact that Auburn is going to win their division by twenty games doesn't interest me in the least.

Re the Syracuse shuttle:

The General Manager makes these decisions.

Good point. In the immortal words of Emily Litella, "Never mind." :-)

More seriously: Ron, if you want J.P. to get fired, what did he do wrong (other than "not win")? If you were the Jays' GM, what would you do differently, given the Jays' payroll limitations?

While I'm still in the pro-J.P. camp, I'd be curious to see what other people think should be done that he isn't doing.

I've just returned after a weekend away and all I can say is Holy Cow!

My general reaction is that this was going to happen sooner or later. I don't think that Tosca was a great in-game stategist and ultimately the Jays can find a better manager. However, until 4-6 weeks ago I thought the team was playing hard for him (especially given the injuries earlier in the year) and for that he deserved to last the season. I agee with JP that somewhere over the last few weeks the fight seems to have gone out of the team (perhaps not surprising given everything that has gone wrong). If Tosca was failing to keep the team motivated (in my opinion his greatest strength as a manager) then he probably needed to be fired.

However, Mike G hit the nail square on with his comment about timing. I am not defending Phelps' play this year. Clearly, something has gone wrong. However, I would have liked to see Phelps play for a month straight with a new manager to see what would have happened. That's really my only criticism of this move.

I've read here that Minnesota was Phelps' original destination before Cleveland blocked that move. Does anyone have any educated guesses on who the return from Minnesota was?

It's worth mentioning two things at this point. The first is that the Jays aren't making money, but under JP, they've managed to cut payroll by a good amount, and have avoided making the major 'bust' signings that Ash made. I'm fairly certain that the Rogers people aren't overjoyed with the current results, but they can't be too upset, JP's done all he could there.

Secondly: I don't if anyone's seen it, but the picture of Tosca on sportsnet's website has to be the most inappropriate "Manager fired" picture I've ever seen. It's the stuff of a "caption this picture" campaign (My pick: "I love scotch. Scotchy, scotch, scotch.")

Hey everyone,

Just saw that Carlos Tosca was fired. Tough break for him. He's a class act and really got a raw deal, as no manager could have made this current group of underachievers win ballgames.

I'm not as optimistic about the future as some tend to be. Maybe I'm alone in this, but I'm very underwhelmed by Ricciardi's draft selections. Adams and Hill were drafted as shortstops, but project to be better second baseman and third baseman respectively. Neither can hit for power, and both have very limited upside. The rest of the draft picks seem to be composed of middle flight talent (a term I use to describe middle/bottom of the rotation starters, projected middle relievers, and average offensive talent).

Now when Ricciardi said he likely won't be paying $10 million annually to any one player, instead intends to "spread it around", gives me a sick feeling. We are not going to catch Boston or New York anytime soon if we keep penny pinching, and that's not very encouraging to fans. With Baltimore's offense gaining steam, and a big amount of money available to get pitching help, they may be coming up next year. Don't forget the young talent on the Devil Rays.

Tosca needed to go. You can't fire players. But he's not the root of the problem. Ricciardi has to step up his game and really bring players in that can win. I know that's easier said than done with our budget constraints, but at the current rate, and the way the farm system is constructed, we may not see JP in a Blue Jays front office position for much longer.

I hope I'm wrong.

I bet I could cut payroll and come in 5th too.

I bet I could cut payroll and come in 5th too.

Could you win 86 games as well?

I understand most of the guys at AAA are guys not drafted by JP but I got suckered into the hype of the Jays farm system and more importantly how good the AAA was going to be with: Rios, McGowan, Quiroz, Bush, Adams, Chulk, Gross, etc... I would have never guessed the team would be that bad (and yes they were bad even before the Jays called up a lot of players)

As for what JP could have done differently. To be honest that's really hard to say because I don't work the phones and don't know what players are available for trade and how much money certain FA's want. Perhaps recognizing they needed a legit starting shortstop, getting a bonafide closer?

I do understand the Jays have a low budget and going into the season I applaued JP's moves. I thought the trio of Lightenburg, Adams, and Spier were excellent for the price. I though the team had an outside chance of a wild card spot.

Now it's easy to look back and say they shouldn't have signed any of those 3 relievers, etc..... so I won't do that. But Dave Till your question directed at me speaks volumes ... you say what could have been done other than NOT WIN ... and that to me is the biggest reason I'm leaning towards the "dark side" and saying JP should be under the gun next season because he will finally have payroll flex to make some major moves that will impact the team. It's simple if you don't produce the results you should be fired. JP understands it's the nature of the business.

I want to make one thing clear I'm not proposing JP should be fired now but he should be under the gun next season to produce a good club that could challenge for the wild card. How many more fans can Rogers afford to lose with the poor play on the field?

BTW is JP always on with Wilner after games on Wednesday's (home or away?)? I would love to talk to him and express my thoughts.

Could you win 86 games as well?

Could you make that matter?

With Wilner, JP said being a player was the only substantial difference in their resumes but had no impact on his decision to appoint Gibbons.

Actually what he said was that it didn't have any impact on the firing of Tosca. What else is he going to say? Tosca lost the clubhouse? JP mentioned the professional playing time thing more than once which is why I brought it up.

Best of luck CT. Your team quit on you. They couldn't get out of Yankee Stadium fast enough the past three games.
JP: PLEASE NO CITO --TOMMY

I'm very underwhelmed by Ricciardi's draft selections

FTP, There are systems like the Brewers and D-Rays who have had consistently high draft picks over the past few seasons and subsequently have stronger prospects but which players would you have preferred JP take that went after Hill and Adams (or any other pick for that matter)? Keep in mind the system's needs and signability.

I feel like an abuse victim

Dude, it's just baseball. I can't imagine it's anything remotely similar to an abuse victim.

JP does not decide the payroll. I'm sure he'd like to have a larger payroll. It is not a valid criticism of him to say that the Jays won't win if he's pinching pennies. Like it or not, that's the only way the Jays will win.

Could you make that matter?

Ooh, good comeback.

Smirnoff, you don't seem to have an argument. It does matter, since Ricciardi was the GM last year as well. The team won 86 games.

Imagine you are taking over the team in the 2001-02 offseason (like Ricciardi did) and tell me: What would you have done to make this team better?

Anyone have the pythagorean stats on various managers? How does Derker measure up?

The bottom line in sports is winning and making money. Both of which aren't being accomplished under the JP era.

Have we forgotten already that this team went 86-76 last year? And as for making money, Ted Rogers will let us know the day this ballclub no longer makes money for him.

I feel like an abuse victim. Even though I feel like I get punched in the face everyday I still come back for more because I love the Jays so much

You may want to look into some literature on co-dependency. Seriously, Ron, it's not that bad. Injuries aren't an excuse, but they are one reason why this team has been so bad. Expecting to win is what being a good fan is all about; but failing to adjust your expectations in the face of absurdly bad circumstances such as these is just asking for trouble. Firing Ricciardi will only delay this team's turnaround another five years.

The fact that Syracuse stinks doesn't bother me in the least. The fact that Auburn is going to win their division by twenty games doesn't interest me in the least.

I understand the sentiment, but I think this overstates it. Young ballplayers need to learn what winning is like -- and what it requires of them. Many of the Jays' recent draftees come from very successful college systems; it's no coincidence, IMO, that the minor-league teams they play for are doing so well. Winning may not be contagious, but the attitudes that produce it are.

I've read here that Minnesota was Phelps' original destination before Cleveland blocked that move. Does anyone have any educated guesses on who the return from Minnesota was?

Jim, that was a report circulated the night of the trade (and noted by the poster to be only an opinion); I've heard nothing in terms of a follow-up, so I think we should simply classify it as a rumour.

We are not going to catch Boston or New York anytime soon if we keep penny pinching, and that's not very encouraging to fans.

First-time, we're glad you posted! However, I disagree quite strongly with this point. The payroll is the payroll, and it's not going to change; this club has about $50M to spend on big-league salaries every year, and we must accept that. The reality of this ballclub in this marketplace is that the Blue Jays will always be working from a substantial cost disadvantage; they'll have to make up the gap through innovation, hard work and smart investments. If anyone's looking for a team that can spend its way to competitiveness, the Blue Jays are not the team for them.

More later.

If Rogers upped the payroll to 65 million (that's MLB average or a little below) next year then I could almost guarantee that the Jays will be in the wildcard hunt.

If the payroll is to be 50-53 million next year (as we have heard), then I'm 90% sure that a very large portion of 12 million dollars "saved" (as compared to my proposed budget) will be lost on the revenue end.

In other words, I'm calling for Rogers to step up at this critical juncture and put together a 90-97 win team for next year. J.P. plus 65 million dollars will do it. If the team remains mired in mediocrity, there will be even less revenue to put towards 2006 payroll.

So, I say to all disgruntled fans reading this: start sending letters to Rogers, start a letter-writing campaign and send it to all the major newspapers in Canada. Demand that more money be invested in the Blue Jays at this critical juncture. Stop blaming the General Manager.

This has been a public service announcement. Thank you for your time.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/managers/dierkla01.shtml
IainS, baseball reference does. COMN. Dierker does pretty well.

Pyth record for Dierker:

Year      Wins       PythWins        +/-
1997        84           93            -7
1998       102          106            -4
1999        97           96            +1
2000        72           81            -9
2001        93           88            +7

Five years, 12 games total below expected W-L record (2.4 wins below per year.) Replaced by Jimy One M, who didn't do much better.

Watch... Canada does well in the Olympic tourney, Jays hire Ernie Whitt...

Tosca is not JP's scapegoat. This thread has turned it around, making JP Tosca's scapegoat.

The Jays won 86 games in 2003. JP improved the team significantly over the off-season. Everyone predicted them to be a top-ten club.

Then Tosca micro-managed that bullpen and his players to a lousy start. Tosca was very active in the Blue Jay losses. His fingerprints were all over each 'L'. Each time a Velerio DLS would strike out the side and then give the ball to a Terry Adams... Each time he'd remove a hot-hand to go with a favourable matchup based on 5 at bats... Each time he undermined the confidence of a player by removing him from his position after just two or three games without production... He denied his players what they need the most: routine. Therefore winning was not routine, and the club has finally got used to losing.

I'm sure JP was about to axe Tosca when the injuries started happening. Then it was too late. And Joe Torre bought Tosca some job security as well by naming him to the All-Star squad. Now it's well into August and the season is wasted.

But why is the feeling here overwhelmingly that Tosca got a raw deal? I thought he turned his style around in the latter part of 2003. But the beginning of this season it was the same 'matchups' and mad pitching changes, taking him until the all-star break to figure out his bullpen. All managers have to deal with a new bullpen every year. We've been far too patient with Tosca. He should have been gone months ago.

If you want to blame JP for something, blame him for not pulling the plug on Tosca earlier.

I'm sorry for the abuse comment if that offended anybody, hopefully you get my point though.

As for the draft of Adams, there's a lot of good prospects selected behind him like: Kazmir, Swisher, Hamels, Blanton, Miller, etc...

FTP, There are systems like the Brewers and D-Rays who have had consistently high draft picks over the past few seasons and subsequently have stronger prospects but which players would you have preferred JP take that went after Hill and Adams (or any other pick for that matter)? Keep in mind the system's needs and signability.

Honestly, I don't know. I'm not trying to second guess JP's selections, just stating my general apathy towards the talent of the players he picked. If we're counting on Aaron Hill to be a 3B and Russ Adams to be a SS, that's not something to be too optimistic about, IMHO.

It's clear as long as our current group of ownership refuses to increase payroll, that the Jays will be forced to use their minor league system as a way of replacing lost talent. I don't think we are anywhere near the point where we can consider the team self-sufficient, and the major league talent is currently sucking wind. Ricciardi only has three years remaining on his deal. Can we honestly expect a championship calibre team within that time frame? Or a team relatively close to what Ricciardi envisioned? I don't.

We need free agency, badly. Unfortunately, we'll be looking at the bargain bin again instead of the upper echelon. That's not JP's fault, but it's still a telling sign that expecting serious contention anytime soon is really false hope at this point.

Again, I hope I'm wrong.

Rob,
What have you done for me lately? The plan was to move forward from last year. This team didn't.

I think JP gets way too much credit for what he has done up until this point. I'm an advocate of his approach, but particularly in this season don't feel that it's the time to be bragging about how great he has was a season ago.

It's all speculation as to what anyone could do to make this team better. I give JP all of the credit for cutting salary and winning 86 games. But I also think he deserves a fair share of the blame for this team's disastrous failure this season.

A few things that I would have handled differently recently, where it's more comfortable to speculate--

1) I would have fired Tosca earlier. He is not a good in-game manager and the team has been flat for too long. His handling of the bullpen was disastrous. And he did not lead confidently-- at least as it appears to me.

2) Phelps/Werth-- I like to think that the scouts and player evaluators know something that I didn't know about these guys. It should be interesting to see how they finish out their careers. I would have liked to have seen them get more ABS over the last few seasons.

3) Delgado-- This whole situation is baffling and reaks of the Kelvim Escobar re-signing efforts. I would have handled it differently from the get-go. I never thought we'd keep him and still don't. I would have tried actively to move him last year when his value was high. Whether it would have worked or not, who knows, but it's what I would have tried to do.

4) Benitez-- I would have done everything I could do to sign him. He appeared to be undervalued because of his "mental make-up" and seemed like a good risk at the time.

Everything can of course be debated, but it's all really hypothetical and there really isn't any way to know what could and could not have been done.

All I know is that I'm again left with faith in the farm system as my reason to be optimistic for next year. Not exactly a great place to be in the AL East.

Davey Johnson would be an interesting manager possibility as well.

I'm very underwhelmed by Ricciardi's draft selections

Not excited by the prospect of the big lefty, Purcey?

Yes, Adams and Hill are low return investments, but they are also low risk. While both Hill and Adams are unlikely to be stars, they are nevertheless highly likely to make it to the major leagues and be reasonably productive. Not a bad strategy when the cupboard is bare, I think.

And as A. points out, the best picks may well be gone by the time the Jays get to choose and that is a function of their success. Maybe they'll get a juicy early pick in the next draft though...

Any chance we can trade for Nicky Johnson in Montreal this off-season? He's only 25. Currently doing very poorly and is injury prone, but knowing Minaya, we can probably acquire him for Reed Johnson and Gustavo Chacin.

As I recall, Tosca was brought in as Buck Matrtinez' 3b coach by JP - Buck had little, if any, say in the matter. I also recall reading at the time, although for the life of me I can't remember the sources, a lot of prognosticators expecting Tosca to replace Martinez. And, since JP cut Buck loose about 3 months into the '02 season and replaced him with his guy, I wonder what will be said about JP tomorrow - bold enough to admit his mistake, or just a mistake-prone GM?

Yes, Adams and Hill are low return investments, but they are also low risk.

Whoa,

Name 5 position players from the 2003 draft that have done better than Aaron Hill. Low return? Hill is a legitimately great prospect with a high ceiling. Considering how young AND inexperienced he is, he's had a great year in AA.

He's exactly where Bobby Crosby was and I wouldn't want to bet on whether Crosby or Hill have a better career.

It is amazing how dumb JP got in the last few months. However an infusion of money would probably see his IQ shoot up. We don't need vultures circling him.

I'm all for Johnson and Dierker.

Btw, the kind of common notion that comparing pythag w/l to real w/l can tell you much about a manager is false.

This season isn't the management's fault, I think injuries played a factor, and the team has really not competed. In addition, I think the reason is also that they stopped paying attention, for instance look at delgado's line:

79 S0 in 286 AB and 79/38 (~2:1) SO/BB ratio.

It is clear that he just tries to whack everything out of the park. And it's not just him, it's the entire roster (with the exception of the rookies) who are trying to smack everything lately. I think the contract year thing played a huge role in this, and when the leader of the clubhouse does whatever he wants, undermining the manager, players are bound to follow.

If he is anyway not going to be back next year, why not put him through waivers and prearrange for some team to claim him for a prospect(i.e. trade by waiver wire). I don't think he can veto that ... anyone know more about this.

I want to make one thing clear I'm not proposing JP should be fired now but he should be under the gun next season to produce a good club that could challenge for the wild card. How many more fans can Rogers afford to lose with the poor play on the field?

Rogers are well aware that rebuilding involves losing.

Comments about J.P. not being able to put together a winning team are really misguided at this point: J.P. is not trying to build a team of free agents with only $50 million in payroll. That is not his rebuilding strategy. His strategy is to build the team through drafting and development, and in the interim he has to field a team.

Yes, this totally sucks. I hate being a fan of a team that loses a lot. But take the long view, people, try to see the master plan.

BTW is JP always on with Wilner after games on Wednesday's (home or away?)? I would love to talk to him and express my thoughts.

Virtually every Wednesday, yep. And he's pretty candid with his answers.

But I also think he deserves a fair share of the blame for this team's disastrous failure this season.

JP took blame in his interview with Wilner. He said that many of the failures this season were inpart his fault as well as Tosca's and he regrets that Tosca appears to have been burdened with all the blame. He's never passed the buck.

"Smirnoff" has had one of his posts deleted.

He made reference to an unpleasant situation in Batter's Box history, trying to jokingly tie it in with the issue of Tosca's dismissal.

We are making efforts at Batter's Box to ensure that that unpleasant situation does not repeat itself. This is a sensitive issue for us and any attempt to bring it up, in a joking matter or otherwise, will be dealt with as above. Repeat offenders will be banned.

You guys are quick. I guess you didn't like that one.

Named for Hank,
I think the only way this 5 year plan works is with a cash infusion when necessary. It'll be interesting to see what is done with the Delgado money.

Considering how young AND inexperienced he is, he's had a great year in AA.

All true, but he still is only in AA. Do you think he is going to be a star? I don't, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong. I'd also wager he was chosen based on risk rather than ceiling. And that of course is just an opinion (derived from comments made by "experts" such as BA when Hill was selected).

Name 5 position players from the 2003 draft that have done better than Aaron Hill.

I'll conceed you may indeed be right (alas I don't have time to check), though my point is actually about why he was chosen, not how he is doing now. And why he was chosen is of course my speculation.

Robert,

I wasn't really making a joke about what I'd describe as despicable rather than unpleasant. But I'll let it go. Just needed a stress release on the subject.

I think the only way this 5 year plan works is with a cash infusion when necessary. It'll be interesting to see what is done with the Delgado money.

I agree. Hopefully when the winning starts the fans come back, which will certainly help things.

Frankly speaking, smirnoff, I thought it was rather humourous. But then again, maybe it's just the funeral dancer in me

Here's an interesting name to throw out there for manager... he ain't dead yet... How about Sparky Anderson?

BA didn't particularly like Crosby either. In case you haven't noticed, BA generally doesn't like college hitters. And for no good reason, since a lot of position players stars were drafted out of college.

Of all the position players currently in the minor league system, I think Hill has the second best chance to be a star. I put him very marginally behind Quiroz in that respect.

Do I THINK he'll be a star? I don't know how to answer that question. I'll say it this way - my estimate of the probability to Hill plays 1000 games and makes at least 2 all-star teams in his career is somewhere between 10 and 30 percent.

Kazmir, Swisher, Hamels, Blanton, Miller, etc...

Hamels is going to throw 16 innings this entire year, and still hasn't made it out of A-ball. Miller may miss the entire season. Kazmir supposedly had some crazy bonus demands. I'll give you Swisher, though, and Blanton might have been a better choice too.

2) Phelps/Werth-- I like to think that the scouts and player evaluators know something that I didn't know about these guys. It should be interesting to see how they finish out their careers. I would have liked to have seen them get more ABS over the last few seasons.

Werth hit .237 in Syracuse last year. That's not much of a case for playing time or to say that he'll be productive in the majors.

The plan was to move forward from last year. This team didn't.

It did not improve, you are right. But I remember the plan being "one step back, two steps forward." If that wasn't the case, then please correct me.

I think JP gets way too much credit for what he has done up until this point. I'm an advocate of his approach, but particularly in this season don't feel that it's the time to be bragging about how great he has was a season ago.

Fair enough. I was deflecting away from the current situation. But if next year's team wins 93 games, you don't get to complain about how bad the team was in 2004. Agreed?

It's all speculation as to what anyone could do to make this team better. I give JP all of the credit for cutting salary and winning 86 games. But I also think he deserves a fair share of the blame for this team's disastrous failure this season.

The disastrous failure is thanks to the offence, which was near the top of the AL last year. The only players who were obviously not going to repeat their 2003 performances were Delgado and Myers. If Ricciardi changed the offense around, people would complain that he broke up a great hitting ball club. He kept them, and now he gets blasted for not improving the offense?

1) I would have fired Tosca earlier.

That's all I need to read. I agree with you. I don't like Tosca's in-game managing or his lineup selections and I don't miss him one bit now. But when should Tosca have been fired? May? All-Star Break?

2) Phelps/Werth

The scouts and coaches do know a lot more about these players than you, me, and everybody who posts at this site. I couldn't agree more with the Phelps situation -- 2003 and 2004 -- but I'm not sold on Werth. I guess you could have played him over Kielty in the latter half of the season.

3) Delgado

Trading a first baseman making 18 million isn't an easy thing to do. There was the incentive of his contract year pushing up his performance, but I doubt there was a real market for him. I must admit, I never thought about trading Delgado this past offseason.

4) Benitez

I can't really argue that. He has been good in Florida and the Arson Squad has ruled in Toronto.

Ummm...what were we arguing about? I'm not being sarcastic, it seems like I'm agreeing with you on everything here.

No way Swisher was a better choice than Hill - no way.

If we're talking about Adams, maybe. But I'll take a shortstop over an outfielder if they are comparable hitters.

I wish I had some say in making Da Box into subscription-only access. Half of this thread is unreadable :-(

I wasn't the original poster but i was talking about swisher vs Russ Adams. Heck, Swisher has 91 walks already in AAA.

Rob,

I tend to be pessimistic about things. I've tried to keep the faith for quite some time, but this past season has just been ugly. Terrible managing. Horrible fielding. Awful hitting. Injuries to the big club. Injuries in the minors.

I'll stay the course for as long as I can here.

Truth be told, I was calling for Tosca's head right around when the injury bug bit. I would have done it then and there, fair or not, because I didn't see Tosca as the manager next year anyway and wanted to see someone else get a shot. It's not the benefit of 20/20 hindsight because I said it at the time.

Re: Delgado-- I was concerned he was at peak value then and there. The no-trade clause would make anything difficult, but that seemed like the time to try. I'm glad we didn't lock him up to a terrible deal after last year. That was a good decision JP made. But the decision to not talk to him about numbers during the year doesn't seem appropriate to me.

It's more fun to agree. :)

On the winning 93 games thing, fair enough. But if they win 92, it's on.

4) Benitez

Benitez was a head case and the Jays risk management philosophy would therefore exclude him. If you look at the odds, who was (in the off-season) more likely to have success, Ligtenberg or Benitez? Sure Benitez has a higher ceiling but if he goes off the deep end his money is totally lost. It sucks that Ligtenberg has been like Lighter Fluid but who could have known? At the time, JP was praised for spending real money to improve the 'pen because that was what all signs from Ligtenberg pointed to.

Robert, Baseball America actually has always been very high on Crosby so that is incorrect. Hill certainly has more upside than Adams and besides maybe Sweeney or Garko, Robert is correct when saying you cant really find 5 position players from that draft doing better than Hill is right now.

I'll take BA's opinion over all others when it comes down to analyzing prospects. When they are wrong they admit it and as Jim Callis said in Friday's Daily Dish "Depth is nice and good to have, but you win at the major league level with stars." Hill may have been as good as college position player that was available, but was he the best player available? Don't know. For those who continually run down anyone not out of a four year college, BA did a study and found that there was not big difference in the amount of arm surgeries between college and prep draftees.
For the record, Hill received an honerable mention on BA's prospect list this week.

Swisher's having a terrific year. Great yound kid too I remember when he was profiled when the A's AAA team was still the Vancouver Canadians (Harden and most of the good A's at one time played in Vancouver) Now we got the A's Single A team here.

Back to the Jays, I know JP can't comment on players still under contract from other teams but I would to get his "thoughts" on Richie Sexson. Coming off a serious injury which will hurt his value. He makes around 8 mil this season. If Sexson was willing to sign with he Jays for 8 mil I would do it in a hearbeat. The guy is a straught up masher and he's solid on the field.

It's more fun to agree. :)

No kidding. It's also fun to debate any issue with a fellow baseball fan, since there are so few left, and so many things to debate. (So few fans, that is, not issues.)

Not sure how to do the italics quote thing, so I'll just use the old fashioned "[text]" method. Hope you can follow along.

"I would have fired Tosca earlier. He is not a good in-game manager and the team has been flat for too long. His handling of the bullpen was disastrous. And he did not lead confidently-- at least as it appears to me."

When, exactly? Before the season? June, when the players started getting injured? At the all-star break, when Tosca was an all-star manager? There hasn't exactly been a prime time to fire the guy, because each time, the media would've jumped on JP. I'm not totally sold on the timing, but Tosca had a decent opportunity to prove himself, and the Jays will have some time to see what Gibbons can do.

"2) Phelps/Werth-- I like to think that the scouts and player evaluators know something that I didn't know about these guys. It should be interesting to see how they finish out their careers. I would have liked to have seen them get more ABS over the last few seasons."

Phelps may turn things around, he might not. The trade's timing is odd, he might not've been handled well, and it could wind up looking terrible. It's one of those trades that will take a few trades to sort out. Werth, though, wouldn't have had much of a chance in Toronto. Wells, Cat (pre-injury), Johnson, and Rios all would probably have been ahead of him. More importantly, can you imagine how much louder the criticism of Tosca's bullpen management would've been without Frasor (and not related to the trade, Chulk) being in Toronto? I'm not overly upset with the trade, at least not now, even with the Jays having stretches where Dave Berg was the Left Fielder.

"3) Delgado-- This whole situation is baffling and reaks of the Kelvim Escobar re-signing efforts. I would have handled it differently from the get-go. I never thought we'd keep him and still don't. I would have tried actively to move him last year when his value was high. Whether it would have worked or not, who knows, but it's what I would have tried to do."

Sure, trade him last year. "Stats man trades best Blue Jay ever" would've been the headlines, and the negative publicity would've been horrible. It's not impossible that the Jays will resign Delgado. It might not be likely, but the Jays couldn't trade Delgado, he's been quite clear that he's not waiving his no-trade clause. It's easy to say "I"d get rid of Delgado", it's another thing to actually do it, get decent value, and come away not looking like you've just traded the franchise player for no-name prospects.

"4) Benitez-- I would have done everything I could do to sign him. He appeared to be undervalued because of his "mental make-up" and seemed like a good risk at the time."

That one I'll give you, because the bullpen has been pretty bad. He's making 3,000,000 while playing on the defending world champions, though, and I'd imagine that it'd have cost around 3,500,000 for him to come to Toronto, where he'd be closing out games on a 5th place team. The only benefit would've been the possibilities of trading him at the deadline.

I'd like to see the Jays compete next year. I'm not totally confident that it can happen, even in two to three years. They Jays have a tough challenge, winning in the middle of an arms war between Boston and New York. They'll need most of their prospects to pan out at the right time in order to compete on their current budget, and it's a tough challenge for any GM.

Semi Hijack as this comment doesn't have to do with Tosca but rather one of his coaches, Mike Barnett.

When does some of the blame for our poor offensive season start to reflect on the hitting coach. Nobody seems to question his abilities much, but his failure to improve Phelps, Hinske, Hudson, Cash (i.e. the young players) has had me worried for some time. Also, more importantly the philosophy of taking pitchers deep into the count seems to have completely disappeared, as I have noticed way too many 1 or 2 pitch outs from the current Jays.

If Gibbons makes some changes, I hope this is one of the areas he looks at.

I think Barnett is fine. The team hit well last year, didn't it?

Unrelated question: Who actually fires managers, the GM or the owner? I'm thinking GM, but I'm not sure.

For those who put any stock in it, Dierker's real W/L was 16 games under his Pythagorean W/L for his years managing in Houston. Take from that what you will, but it personally makes me uneasy.

For those who put any stock in it, Dierker's real W/L was 16 games under his Pythagorean W/L for his years managing in Houston.

I thought it was -12, but either way, it's not good.

That's if you believe that Pyth/Real records mean anything about a manager.

Last comments of the evening from me.

6-4-3,

If you are afraid of the media, then you shouldn't be the GM of a MLB franchise.

On Delgado, the plan seemed to be to wait and see. Well, JP waited and saw and then got burned at least in part (in my opinion) for his not dealing with the issue earlier. I think Carlos may have been more inclined to waive the no-trade earlier if the sides were not gonna agree on numbers. I'm really speculating on this, as I know little about how much the sides have talked. My impression has been not at all since the season started in terms of numbers. Please correct me if I'm wrong. In any event, we'll never know what we could have received in return. I would have tried to trade him for pitching or to fill the 1b hole that the organization must have been aware about when they decided not to give Phelps many ABs.

I will consider it to be a strike against the GM if our first base situation is ugly next year. He had plenty of time to prepare for it.

The names that I liked for the bullpen most last year were Gordon and Benitez.

Anyway, it's all in the past. Time to move on...

I cant see JP going for Dierker. Ron Washington makes more sense or like Coach said lets see how Gibbons does for the rest of the year. Joe Madden who I think is the bench coach on the Angels has been mentioned as a potential manager candidate for teams that use Stats more than others.

RE: First round picks
Adams doesn't interest me nearly as much as Hill.

I'd say that the one hitter taken after Adams that I'd rank as clearly above him is Conor Jackson. I like Matt Moses and Eric Duncan but both are clearly much farther away. Would you say that Adams has closed much of the gap between himself and Richie Weeks?

'For those who put any stock in it, Dierker's real W/L was 16 games under his Pythagorean W/L for his years managing in Houston. Take from that what you will, but it personally makes me uneasy.'

Don't know how some of you feel but I put little to zero stock in Pythagorean records to judge managers.

'I understand the sentiment, but I think this overstates it. Young ballplayers need to learn what winning is like -- and what it requires of them. Many of the Jays' recent draftees come from very successful college systems; it's no coincidence, IMO, that the minor-league teams they play for are doing so well. Winning may not be contagious, but the attitudes that produce it are.'

I guess there is something to teaching a winning attitude in the minors. I'd still rather have a couple of B.J. Upton's (not that anyone has that) instead of some overage players pounding the snot out of the New York-Penn League. I hope that JP moves towards a better balance of college and prep players in the 2005 draft as they have added a lot of depth and now need to come up with some high ceiling players. They also are going to end up with some roster crunches on their hands and another 25 college seniors in 2005 isn't going to help that.

Robert, Baseball America actually has always been very high on Crosby so that is incorrect.

That must be a bit of revisionist history. In the 2003 BA Almanac, BA listed the top 10 shortstop prospects in major league baeball (as of October 2002). Crosby had just finished his first full year in the majors. Here is the list:

1) Brandon Phillips, 2)Jose Reyes, 3)Hanley Ramirez, 4)B.J. Upton, 5) Jose Lopez (Seattle), 6) Wilson Betemit, 7) Jose Castillo (Pittsburgh), 8) Khalil Greene, 9) J.J. Hardy, 10) Angel Berroa.

In March 2002, BA's top 100 prospects list did not include Bobby Crosby. The Athletics who mad ethe list were: #5 Carlos Pena, #91 Eric Byrnes.

It was only after his amazing 2003 campaign that Crosby showed up as BA's #3 shortstop prospect.

'I'd say that the one hitter taken after Adams that I'd rank as clearly above him is Conor Jackson. I like Matt Moses and Eric Duncan but both are clearly much farther away. Would you say that Adams has closed much of the gap between himself and Richie Weeks? '

Of course I mean Hill in this sentence instead of Adams twice.

Like this

I'd say that the one hitter taken after HILL that I'd rank as clearly above him is Conor Jackson. I like Matt Moses and Eric Duncan but both are clearly much farther away. Would you say that HILL has closed much of the gap between himself and Richie Weeks?

Manager shopping is fun, isn't it?

Question: who coaches first base now?

A: It seems some posts have been deleted, are these the posts that are "unreadable"?

It seems I've missed some of the controversy here.

Personally I think making Da Box subscription-only is a dreadful idea. It would kill everything good about this site and make it painfully insular, stagnant and dull. Plus, would people like Mike Wilner etc. want to be fidling around with passwords while they're on the air? If it ain't broke...

Robert, Crosby was the Athletics #5 prospect in 2002 so though he didnt make the BA top 10 SS list he still was very highly regarded in the Team profiles and at the time he had only 38 at bats due in part to an injury. The comments on his profile were all very positive but I do agree with you that at time BA tends to wait longer on the college players before ranking them above the "Tools" players which that 2002 SS list cleary shows.

Certainly I like Conor Jackson. He projects to be a better hitter than Hill, but he's also a first baseman. That gives Hill an enormous positional advantage that might make up the bat gap. We'll see.

Not being on the top 100 list in March 2002 puts the lie to "Baseball America actually has always been very high on Crosby". End of story on that one.

Jim, Matt Moses has a back injury and has been hurt for most of the year. He has been compared to Hank Blalock but its far too early to tell how he will develope and Hill is already succeeding at Double A. Eric Duncan has had a decent year but again at lower levels and he will probably end up at first base. I dont think its fair to compare Hill to Weekes only because of the difference in their draft position with Weekes being a candidate to go #1 overall. I really like the pick of Hill and I think he will be a good to great player in 2 years for the Jays.

Okay Robert a guy with 38 AB isnt in the top 100. I feel shame,end of story.Sorry for having an opinion based on what I have read.

Useless information: Sparky Anderson is 70 years old and younger than Jack McKeon. Also, the last seven years he was a manager his team finished above .500 twice. His last four years the team wasn't higher than 4th. This has been useless manager information, brought to you by Emerald. Back to the real debate.

Bill James did not like using the difference from Pythagorean as a manager evaluation tool either. He introduced a more sensible metric: comparing a manager's actual wins to "expected wins", where expected wins was 1/2 based on the team's previous year, 1/8 on each of the two years before that, plus 1/4 of a .500 record (so if a team could stay a constant amount above .500 every year, the manager gets credit for overcoming the tendency to drift to average; Bobby Cox does great in this metric). Here's a Neyer article with more background. I'll let someone else compute Dierker's score. But keep in mind this is just one indicator; there's no perfect metric for evaluating managers.

Watching Sportsnet... Josh Phelps actually does have a stiff neck! That's why he's not in the Indians lineup.

I feel shame,end of story.Sorry for having an opinion based on what I have read.

So put up an intellectual fight, don't get whiney.

A, I thought I did by saying that Crosby only had 38 ab so thats why he was left off the top 100 though he did get a great write up in the A's top 10 for 2002 as the #5 rated prospect. In my opinion that made him highly regraded by BA even though he was not yet in the Top 10 SS and top 100 prospects probably because of his injury and lack of playing time. I actually just re read the post I wrote and I didnt mean for it to come across the way it did. Robert is someone whose opinion on here I greatly respect and read his work over at THT and here at Batters Box. I just thought he was incorrect based on what I said above. Its my opinion but I probably should have worded my first post with "Robert, considering BA ranked Crosby as the A's #5 prospect even though he only had 38 AB would you consider that highly regarded?". Anyways neither here nor there as someone who frequently lurks but rarely posts I will know to be more careful next time and A thanks for the tips but had you read my other posts I was trying to argue based on fact.

The Braves need a first baseman. Maybe we should have traded Josh Phelps for Bobby Cox. (giggle)

It's interesting with the Braves and Cox and their remarkable run. Are the players that good or does Cox have everything to do with it? Is he one of the greatest managers of all-time or just really really lucky? His first stint with the Braves was bad, his time in Toronto was terrific (99 wins, still the record I believe), and his time in Atlanta has been legendary. Perhaps as a manager he has gotten better over the years?

Anyway enough rambling, the Jays won't get Cox back no matter what, unless we give them an offer they can't refuse... which we can't.

Sorry, it's just a pet peeve of mine when people give up like that. Your arguement was totally valid but I've noticed people tend to give into Roster members alot that way.

I respect Robert's opinion because he's generally a very well-reasoned person but if you think he's wrong, he's wrong; just because he speakes in a 'matter of fact' tone doesn't mean that's how it is.

I support the Tosca firing. I think JP has shown in the last few days that he has a very competitive, emotional side to him. I think the team showing no fight in New York really pissed him off. This contrasts with what I though was a fairly patient approach.

I think Tosca's biggest problem was that he did not stick with players long enough to build their confidence. His management of the bull pen was bad. Example: Speir comes in 6th inning, gives up hit and is pulled. Lightenberg blows save, never gets put in that situation again. His management of hitters was the same way. "Woodward, you were 0-4 yesterday, sit down".

I would thrown Lightenberg out there the next day or two in the same spot and tell him he is the man. It is tough enough to play without worrying about what effect the next pitch will have on your carreer. Cito Gaston was a bit too much the other way and was criticized for it.

I think Tosca would say he was being tough and trying to reward those who perform, but I think he just would up wrecking his player's confidence.

A, your right and thank you. I also need to better word my posts and make sure I am clear with why I disagree with someone, or if I make the statement about someone being incorrect I had better be able to back it up with facts. It can get very intimidating posting on here but hey I still love the site despite my opinion being shot down.:)

The Toronto Star, inviting readers to have their say, poses the following question (italics mine):

"The Blue Jays are replacing manager Carlos Tosca with bullpen coach John Gibbons. Is this what the ailing Jays need to turn things around?"

The paper that excels in trashy headlines would have a lot more credibility if they could tell one coach from another.

I'd still rather have a couple of B.J. Upton's

Actually, most people would scream bloody murder at finishing 30th overall several years in a row, which is how you get those picks. Even then you still need a crystal ball to tell the difference between the Josh Hamiltons and the Uptons when they're 18.

who coaches first base now?

As Gibby himself says, anybody can hold batting gloves after guys get a hit. It's not a critical position to fill for the next seven weeks. What I'm wondering is whether Joe Breeden, one of Tosca's best friends, will hand in his resignation or stick around.

Damm I can't believe I'm reading about Pythagorean on a baseball site.

Now I can truly understand why Baseball is a stats geek dream:)

Ducey: I think you've assessed JP correctly. Sure he has a long term plan. But not once have I heard him concede this season. "We're playing to win right now" is something I've heard a lot. Not trading Zaun at the trading deadline is an indication of that. Shipping off Zaun could possibly bring us a prospect, but there would be a short-term gaping hole for the 2004 big club: Zaun as handler of pitchers and a solid bat at the catching position.

I thought it was -12

Well, going year by year..

1997 Astros
Pythagorean wins: 93
Real wins: 84
Difference: -9 (Amazingly, this didn't cost them the playoffs. What an awful division)

1998 Astros
Pythagorean wins: 106
Real wins: 102
Difference: -4

1999 Astros
Pythagorean wins: 96
Real wins: 97
Difference: +1

2000 Astros
Pythagorean wins: 81
Real wins: 72
Difference: -9

2001 Astros
Pythagorean wins: 88
Real wins: 93
Difference: +5

Total - (-9) + (-4) + 1 + (-9) + 5 = -16 overall

That's 1 good year, 1 bad year, 1 year with no real difference and 2 awful years. I'm a big Rob Neyer booster myself, so it just seems to me that being 16 games under your RS/RA record over 5 years has to have something to do with the manager. That's just me, though.

You know what this site needs?

On the main page, on the side bar, a link to a cheat sheet page with brief explanations of what some of these formulas mean and what the formulas are. Pythagorean wins? Or 'Win Shares'? All the stats you find illuminating: give us a reference telling us about them, but make the explanation simple.

As for the draft of Adams, there's a lot of good prospects selected behind him like: Kazmir, Swisher, Hamels, Blanton, Miller, etc...

I think a case could definitely be made for Swisher...I would have said the same thing about Blanton but he has hit a bit of a wall at AAA...I am pretty happy with David Bush in the 2nd round...

C.

There's the mistaken assumption that if a team overperforms its pythag then the manager is somehow responsible for getting the team to overachieve (and of course the converse that the manager is responsible for a team underperforming its pythag.) This is for the most part not the case. A team which underperforms its pythag still scores just as many runs as it would have had it overperformed its pythag. The only difference is the distribution of those runs. So, if Dierker's teams have underperformed vs. their pythag, it's not as if they didn't score as many runs as you might have thought they would have. It only means they were unlucky in respect to the distribution of those runs. Sure, Dierker might have some responsibility in respect to bullpen management and such, but it's not really that big a deal. It's not as if the team was 'supposed' to score x number of runs, but under Dierker they scored x-y.

Keith, the first link that a google search of 'definition pythagorean wins' is, you guessed it, a definition of pythagorean wins.

Crosby was left off the top 10 shortstop prospect list AFTER 2002; i.e. after a full season in which he played 73 games in Modesto and 59 games in AA Midland. Considering that Russ Adams was ranked #10 on the same list (top shortstop prospects) a year later, I don't think it's possible to say that BA highly regarded Crosby after the 2002 season.

And BA almost always writes nice stuff about every prospect it discusses.

Weighing in...

The Jays IMO should've fired Tosca earlier- early June would've been fine with me. He wasn't getting results- it didn't seem like plyaers were getting better with him, and his tactics constatntly baffled me. I didn't comment on the Phelps trade, which likes right now like a mistake in conjunction with Tosca's firing. Phelps should've been given another 150 AB in these last couple of meaningless months to see if he could turn it around. Mazybe he'd have played better with a different manager. I don't know, but it seems like he had the potential to make it worth the investment. Tosca doesn't seem like a guy with a plan for his players, and that was his supposed strength. I don't understand the loyalty he has on this site- it seems like a mild case of Stockholm Syndrome.

I also don't think his firing is the magic bullet for making this team better, but I have some hope now for the rest of the season. I couldn't get a good read on anyone in the 'pen because of Tosca's weird usage (which has gotten better). I'm pretty psyched to see Gross up after he got it together in Syracuse. Adams still doesn't look like much, but I'm really hoping he proves otherwise. There's a lot of hope in the organization still, and now that Tosca's gone I feel like we'll have a better handle on what's actually here.

Calling for JP to be fired isn't warranted IMO. He made some mistakes in the offseason, and waited too long to fire Tosca. But he's got a plan, one that this year's mistakes hasn't really hurt (aside from possibly Phelps, but that will depend on if Clevland can get him turned around and if JP grabbed the right return). I'll echo what people here have said: 2005 will be the make or break year.

Regarding Benitez, I doubt he would have signed with the Jays regardless of what they offered him. In his old contract with the Mets, he had a limited no-trade clause that prevented him from being moved to either Toronto or Montreal. I don't know whether it was a climate thing, or the fact that he'd have to adjust to a new country, but he didn't want to be here.

"If you are afraid of the media, then you shouldn't be the GM of a MLB franchise."

I don't think that the Blue Jays should consult Richard Griffen before every move, but I think that goodwill is an important asset for the Jays, and some moves should be based on that consideration.
Trading Delgado in the middle of an MVP season is a time when, unless the payoff is incredibly high, it's not worth it. Same goes for after the MVP season, and during a slumping / injured season.

With Delgado, trading him is far too hypothetical for my tastes. When would it have happened? In the middle of his MVP season? After said season? Where would he go? How many teams have the ability to woo him, the talent to give up for him (assuming MVP production), and the budget room to pay for him? He has a no-trade clause, and contract situation or no contract situation, I doubt that he would've waived it. If anything, if he really was concerned about his upcoming free agency, he would've accepted a trade out of town, with the hopes that he could help a team make and perform well in the playoffs. The only team that I can remember having decent interest in Delgado this year was LA, and that seems shaky, with Shawn Green's injuries basically forcing him to play 1st.

Joe Blanton might have made a nice alternative to Russ Adams, but the problem would then be no position players drafted. After the first round of that 2002 draft, the Jays went extremely pitcher heavy. Had the Jays selected a pitcher in the first round, the concern would have been an even more glaring shortage of position players in the system.

Many of the other options were long to wait pitchers too, like Hamels and Kazmir. In the case of Kazmir, many other teams passed on him too based on what were thought to be very high financial demands. The Jays simply can't play with that type of prospect, especially if the high bonus monry for slot doesn't pay off at all. That is simply the penalty of lower budgets, and using a risk reward system, but that is the one the Jays have little choice but to employ.

The selection of Swisher would be opting for an outfielder over a potential shortstop, when outfielders are a less valuable position on the spectrum. The Jays drafted for position value, and that is also very important.

Russ Adams is in AAA, and will reach the Show in September, according to JP. That is a rapid rise and that also has real value. A player actually reaching the major leagues, after being drafted, is a crap shoot at the best of time. The risk was lowered in trade for some degree of security of investment.

In any case, the 2002 draft class was a relatively weak one, on the much ballyhooed but hard to demonstrate "high risk/high reward" players anyway. There simply weren't that many of those available at Jays' selection time.

It's also easy to look back today in hindsight, and say "Player X" was a better draft choice than Russ Adams in 2002, or Aaron Hill in 2003. At draft day, the future is still on of looking through a glass darkly.

By the way, big lefty David Purcey appears to be a very high ceiling pitcher, who also went to college. The two are not mutually exclusive.

On the main page, on the side bar, a link to a cheat sheet page with brief explanations of what some of these formulas mean and what the formulas are.

HERE HERE!! I've been thinking that since the second day I stumbled across this site.

What would be more effective for the 65 million plea? One carefuly structured letter signed "Batters Box" and given to those who matter, or many random emails from bauxites to who knows?

J.P. is very safe next season. He is doing exactly what Rogers wants. Sure the Jays are not making money, but cost are low enought that Rogers is most likly making money off the Jays.

From a business perspective the Jays have two vaules. An immidiate short-term (5-7 years)marketing vaule for Rogers, and a resell vaule in the future. If you put the Jays into a declining asset mode you can achieve the highest % return on current investment before you deinvest of the asset completly. So what you do is spend as little on the Jays as possible, use them for what marketing avantage you can until declining support makes that avantage not worth even a minimum investment. At that piont you sell the team to an American buyer. The lack of support for the team at that point will only significantly lower the vaule of the asset in the current market, where you would not of got the highest return in any case.

This is a sound business strategy that is used when you believe that any given asset does not have future potential for growth in vaule, or that growth is not worth the cost of the increase in investment.

I don't like doing dramatic things like looking years into the future to speculate on Rogers' intentions to sell the team or ride it into the ground just because a manager got fired. There was a pretty good reason the manager got fired and it was mainly because Tampa Bay is well ahead of the Jays this year, and if there was an x-factor besides injuries and luck that allows Tampa to stay well ahead despite a similar or even a worse run differential for most of the season it might be in Pinella versus Tosca. Pinella who promised out of spring training that his team would finish somewhere other than last place. I might have been one of the few who thought it was possible. And that was without at least three major prospects who project to be at least impact players, if not perennial All-Stars.

That's not to say I expect a Pinella or even a veteran big league manager to be hired. But probably someone who won't be present for another 8-20 start to the season. Or someone who won't sit by while Carlos Delgado, leader or not, hurt or not, refuses to use left field in 90% of his at bats.

That's not to absolve JP of blame but like Tosca, there was only so much he could do if the three All-Stars in Carlos, Roy, and Vernon did not play like All-Stars again. All of them have missed considerable time and in the case of Carlos has had the worst year of his career. Which isn't going to work with you have about 50% of the year's cost invested between Delgado and Halladay.

As far as the $65 million payroll, I'm all for it. Hell $55 million would be a good start and would give the Jays the hope of retaining good talent next year. The answer is not now to further cut this team's money and tie their hands behind their backs even further. When this 3 to 5 year plan began, it was with Yankee, Sox, and Oriole teams that were spending far less than they are now. In order to continue to keep pace with these teams at the rate they were in even two years ago you have to raise the investment in the team accordingly. There's only so much which is humanly possible at 25% to 35% of the upper teams' payrolls.

As far as JP's goals this off-season, he has to get more impact talent on this team. I'm assuming with Delgado's big ticket relief that might be possible but assuming after raises the available spending room is $10-$12 million again, I'm going to be pretty disappointed if the biggest name brought in is another Kerry Ligtenberg on a two year deal.

'Actually, most people would scream bloody murder at finishing 30th overall several years in a row, which is how you get those picks. Even then you still need a crystal ball to tell the difference between the Josh Hamiltons and the Uptons when they're 18.'

How about a couple of David Wright's then? I was just refering to high-ceiling prospects, not to where you need to draft them. Wright went 38th in 2001. Justin Morneau went in the third round in 1999. I can change the names, it doesn't change the sentiment.

'Certainly I like Conor Jackson. He projects to be a better hitter than Hill, but he's also a first baseman. That gives Hill an enormous positional advantage that might make up the bat gap. We'll see.'

He's played 34 of his first 38 games at AA in the OF. None have come at 1b. In Lancaster he made 61 appearances all in the OF.

Jim,

Where are these high-ceiling prospects and how do you go about identifying them?

I know this is a bit of an unfair question, as I know that you don't understand scouting... but then, you don't understand scouting. Do you?

If you think the last two Jays first-rounders weren't "high-ceiling" prospects there's no help for you. They were as "high-ceiling" as prospects get. The fact that Adams (at least) hasn't set the world on fire yet, is the business.

So they've swithced him to corner outfield - a position which has little more value than first base.

Interesting reading so far. Given Tosca is gone what type of manager does JP want?

1) He loves 'dirtbag' players, so one would assume he wants a manager who would encourage and promote that type of player. I think Davy Johnson would be out with that qualification, as would Tony La Russa. A Lou Pinella type might be what he is after. Hopefully not a guy like Larry Bowa (ugh).

2) I'd hope he doesn't want another micro-manager (ie: guy who thinks using 4 relief pitchers a game is a good thing). Given the pen was filled with few LOOGY's I'd think this is the case.

3) Cheap, so more $ are available for players.

Should be interesting to see what happens.

To me, you can't treat Rogers as just another owner. They're an owner/broadcaster. So, to them, the Jays are more than just another money-making asset; they're also a source of programming material, and, as such, it makes sense to hang on to them. My bet is that Rogers is in it for the long haul.

'So they've swithced him to corner outfield - a position which has little more value than first base.'

Yes, they sure have, it does make a difference. You act like we should all take your word like it came down from the mountain but you clearly didn't know that he'd been moved to the outfield which has been discussed in more then a few outlets.

'I know this is a bit of an unfair question, as I know that you don't understand scouting... but then, you don't understand scouting. Do you?'

Is there some sort of pact between the authors on this site to drive away outsiders? If you don't want people to post their opinions why have an 'Add Your Comment' section.

I'm not talking about when they were DRAFTED. I'm talking about RIGHT THIS SECOND. You guys fall all over the Blue Jays systems which is full of players a little old for their leagues that put up good but not great numbers. Given the choice I'd rather have a more shallow system with a few high end talents.

If you think that Russ Adams has a ceiling equal of David Wright then I guess there is nothing for us to talk about.

'They were as "high-ceiling" as prospects get. The fact that Adams (at least) hasn't set the world on fire yet, is the business.'

'Were' of course is the key word here, which is my point...

I'll leave you guys to fall all over each other now.

All you have to do is look at how major league right fielders, left fielders and first baseman have hit on average the last 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 or 30 years. Don't take my word for it - please, look it up. Do some actual research to support your opinions.

So I need 30 years of data to like Conor Jackson over Aaron Hill?

I also think that Gary Sheffield is better then Enrique Wilson, do I need to show you that research?

Yes Jim, you need to do some work if you want to challenge such a matter of fact notion as "corner outfielders don't have much more positional value than first basemen".

"corner outfielders don't have much more positional value than first basemen"

I'm not debating that.

This is all I said:

Yes, they sure have, it does make a difference.

That is 100% true, it makes A difference.

Is there some sort of pact between the authors on this site to drive away outsiders?

There are no "outsiders" here. There are only newcomers and other people who've been here a long time. Newcomers are encouraged to contribute to the community in a positive manner.

It's like Will Rogers (I think) said - there are no strangers, just friends you haven't met yet.

So when I wrote this ...

So they've swithced him to corner outfield - a position which has little more value than first base.'

Why didn't you just agree?

'Why didn't you just agree?'

Wouldn't that just be too easy? The best part is that I agree with you on Hill mostly. Jackson was one of only a few players that I would like better then Hill that was taken after #13 in that draft.

I was comparing Hill to Weeks in a favorable light about 50 posts ago.

This is only my opinion, but I might not be alone in this - it seems that some of the most visible authors on this site have been a bit on the surly side lately.

This is only my opinion, but I might not be alone in this - it seems that some of the most visible authors on this site have been a bit on the surly side lately.

Yes, that is most certainly the case. Not referring to you Jim, but there are some posters who've shown up here that greatly irritate some of us.

Was it Bill James who once said that firing a manager in mid-season is the sign of a desperate organization?

Tosca sure seems like a nice guy, but as Scott Carson noted above, the Jays have given up their fighting spirit, and Carlos has to take a large part of the blame for that. Anybody who's played a sport knows the feeling of falling behind against a superior team - your shoulders slump, a sigh escapes your lips, and you start wondering how bad it's going to get. One thing a good manager has to do is make his players believe that it's not over until it's over, no matter who the opposition is. The Jays are 5-16 against the two teams they have to compete with (Red Sox & Yanks) if they want to make the postseason. It became apparent this past weekend that for some of the Jays, the games against the Yankees were over before they started. It doesn't matter what sport we're talking about - if the manager has lost the faith of enough players, he's got to go.

'Not referring to you Jim, but there are some posters who've shown up here that greatly irritate some of us.'

Hopefully it's not me. I will say this to you. The fact that you thought that Florida won the LoDuca deal so clearly caused me to go back and revisit it. I still disagree with you, but I respect your opinion enough that I went back and revisited it.

This is only my opinion, but I might not be alone in this - it seems that some of the most visible authors on this site have been a bit on the surly side lately.

Yeah, it's because their favourite team is getting it's ass kicked all the time.

Re: Ron Washington

As I posted on the Roundup thread, JP was on the FAN this morning and dismissed Ron Washington as a candidate. Perhaps he was only saying that due to tampering laws and to avoid all sorts of incessent speculation for the next two months, but he said that he didn't think Washington wanted to manage and that he wasn't looking at him.

I remember reading an article about Washington a while ago where Washington implied that if he really wanted to be a manager he would have been already. He seemed very happy where was and I wouldn't be surprised if he had already spurned JP's attempt to lure him into the manager's position long ago. I doubt Billy would deny Ricciardi the chance to talk to him if it was something Washington was actually interested in.

Tosca had no chance of success this year and his firing represents the failures and misfortunes at all levels of the organization this season. Very little blame for this greatly dissapointing season rightly falls on his shoulders.