I saw Crozier in Buffalo (vs. Syracuse) on July 2 this year. He won the Bisons yearly HR derby, and can really mash the ball.

I never liked Phelps defense, even though he can reach the 5th deck of SkyDome.

I think the Jays made a good move, and may not have lost much if anything at the plate.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/news_story.asp?id=93885
TSN has it up now. (COMN)

Bizarre. What are the plans for Crozier, or is this just the start of something bigger? Or were they just making room for Gross?

Cozier is hitting .297/.375/.571 for the Bisons.

Maybe Crozier is just a cheaper Josh Phelps for next year

wow. didn't see this coming. gives us room to get Gross up here I guess...

Looks like the brain trust has offically decided that Phelps can only swing one way and won't be able to learn to hit both R's & L's.

J.P. certainly has guts - many GM's wouldn't risk trading one first baseman for another, as it will be easy to compare the two and determine who won the trade.

I would hope that Crozier is first base insurance for next year, and that he isn't intended to be Delgado's replacement. (If the Jays don't sign Delgado again, they need to sign somebody in that class of player, IMHO.)

I think that Phelps has too many holes in his swing to succeed at the major league level. But he can crush lefties, so he could put up decent numbers if left in a strict platoon.

when i heard it was the jays RBI leader i thought of reed johnson, but now i see it's phelps. well, josh was driving me nuts this year, even though he has the most RBIs in the team.

Interesting move on Cleveland's part, what with Travis Hafner and Ben Broussard already in the fold. I guess Phelps will DH against lefties only and pinch-hit.

Haven't posted in a while, but this got my blood boiling. Crozier is OK, but has never been young for his level. I know that Phelps is a man without a position, but the guy can hit if given the chance - even if it be at DH. Giving him away doesn't seem like the answer to me. Perhaps they see Crozier as protection in case they don't find another 1B for when Delgado leaves, but this seems like a bad trade to me.

Then again, I thought the Werth deal for Frasor was bad at the time and Frasor has been quite good for us.

I trust JP, and tend to give him the benefit of the doubt, but this seems like a stinker. I can't believe this is all Phelps brought.

And as an aside, did Phelps have to clear waivers? I suppose he would have to make it as far as Cleveland. Oh well... surprising... and disappointing.

Crozier is all of three months younger than Phelps, FWIW.

I'm not sure I understand this trade. Why exchange Josh Phelps for 'hope-to-be' Josh Phelps? Oh well, to me the bigger question is how Phelps managed to get through waivers.

Gerry called for Crozier in yesterday's roundup as a good insurance plan for Delgado. Me thinks Gerry knows someone in the front office.

If not, could you go buy some 649 tickets for me....please!

I know there are many Phelps supporters on this site, but I for one am actually glad to see Phelps go. I found him very frustrating. Seems like a nice enough guy, well spoken, etc., and I wish him well, but I'm glad.

JP, point-blank, let it be known Phelps was sticking around for next season. He seemed absolute about it so I'm wondering what Crozier has to make this trade seem appealing.

Well the fact that Josh got through waivers shows how waht the rest of MLB thinks of him.

Crozier was hitting .302 in 53 AB with a .911 OPS vs. LHP.
He was hitting .296 in 243 AB with a .954 OPS vs. RHP. 17 of his HRs came agains RHP.

I'm not sure I understand this trade

I think it is as simple as the Jays giving up on Phelps.

He has no defensive value and hasn't hit RH pitching. Given the scarcity of LH starters he's not bringing much to the table. I assume the Jays felt he wasn't going to ever hit RH pitching at a productive enough rate to contribute.

"Well the fact that Josh got through waivers shows how waht the rest of MLB thinks of him."

Word.

He didn't really "get through" waivers though. The entire AL has a shot at him before any NL teams do, and they have priority based on their position in the standings (last year's finish, or the current standings, I can't remember - Craig B. answered this earlier in the year). So not that many teams let him pass by really.

I mentioned in a thread a while back that the Jays needed some LH power, especially in light of the fact that Carlos may be gone next year. And given, the Crozier has played some OF (at least according to Jerry Howarth on the radio) maybe he platoons with Sparky next year.

For what it's worth, 2004 EQAs:

Phelps EQA: .245
Crozier EQA: .265

I think this trade tells you everything you need to know about JP's view of wanting/being able to bring Carlos back next year. Done deal.

A question in regards to waivers. Someone said that the AL gets first crack-in order for a trade to go through, does a guy just have to get through waivers to the team trading for him?

Does anyone know Josh's triple-a splits from the past?

Justin, if that's correct, and I have no reason to doubt you at least 2 other teams would have had a shot at Phelps - Detroit first and Tampa Bay second.

If the process is league wide add in San Diego, NY Mets.

Cleveland tied with the Brewers.

Detroit - 43
Tampa Bay - 63
San Diego - 64
Mets - 66
Brewers - 68

I would have thought the Tigers would have claimed Josh.

Regardless, I always like Phelps and wish him the best, except when we beat Cleveland in 2007 for the AL title.

Whoa. I opened the home page and choked on my muffin. Is this for real?

My mom is not going to like this...

Nigel, I don't understand - are you saying Carlos comes back, because Phelps is gone? Not sure how the 2 are connected.

Wait...what does Cleveland need Phelps for? Hafner, Broussard, and Blake seem like a good CI/DH combo to me.

I think it is as simple as the Jays giving up on Phelps.

No kidding, but instead of comparing Josh this year to Crozier this year, why don't we try comparing Josh any other year vs. Crozier any other year?

Obviously JP and Tosca think Phelps won't hit again. I'm willing to bet Phelps has a better ML career than Crozier.

So, does anyone have any ideas what to ask J.P. about next Wednesday?

Doing a little bit of research on Eric Crozier. He was a 41st round draft choice by Cleveland out of Norfolk State University in 2000

I'm not sure if Crozier will have much of a ML career, but I would bet that Phelps won't. In over a thousand at bats he has proved that he can't hit RHPs. I doubt he will ever be more than a platoon DH. He'll be a good one, but not many teams can really afford to have and pay for a platoon DH.

Crozier has better stats and a better EQA this year. He is old for AAA, but I'd be willing to give him a shot, considering that he's hit better than anyone at Syracuse.

Where does Gross fit into the equation?, platooning with Sparky?

Where does Gross fit into the equation?, platooning with Sparky?

All right. No more Dave Berg vs RH.

I believe these are re-callable waivers. Therefore if a team A claims him and don't want to offer up what the seller is looking for the player can be re-called off waivers. I think its nonsense to just say this is what evey GM in the league thought of Phelps. They all knew they would have to come up with something to get him. Phelps wasn't waived he was traded. Sure glad he has never been stopped by the cops cuz I'd expect he'd be called criminal as well.

Like someone above said, I don't get the feeling Delgado will be coming back. The club is loading up at corner infield.

In over a thousand at bats he has proved that he can't hit RHPs.

His OPS's vs LHP/RHP:

2002: 793/955
2003: 876/800
2004: 1003/542

His inability to hit RHP is a 2004 phenomenon, not part of career-long trend.

They call it revocable waivers, I believe. And it works exactly as Lefty described.

I agree with Lefty. Hattig and Crozier in the same week?

Thats right Robert, thanks for that.

All right. No more Dave Berg vs RH.

Yes, but he could become the DH vs LHP.

Gerry called for Crozier in yesterday's roundup as a good insurance plan for Delgado. Me thinks Gerry knows someone in the front office.

If not, could you go buy some 649 tickets for me....please!

Time to be some 649 tickets....for myself. I know no one in the front office, I was in Buffalo this week, saw him jack one, same as I saw him jack one last time I was in buffalo and wondered why he was not listed in any of the prospect books. Looks like his baseball career was delayed for some reason but then he had a good 2002, an average 2003 and a good 2004. Not sure what his ceiling is but he could be part of a platoon. Remember if you cannot afford a $5 million player, sometimes two $300,000 players can do the same job.

He'll be a good one, but not many teams can really afford to have and pay for a platoon DH.

Why? A platoon DH playing almost exclusively against lefties will get no more than 250 PA a year. How much do guys like that make?

Yes, but [Berg] could become the DH vs LHP.

Ugh. Thanks a LOT, Chuck. ;)

Holy crap! They throw Douglass out, that's BS.

I'm not sure if Crozier will have much of a ML career, but I would bet that Phelps won't. In over a thousand at bats he has proved that he can't hit RHPs.

Is this selective stat day? Phelps has a career .810 OPS. .774 vs RH, and .885 vs RH. Nope, he'll never hit.

Also check out Phelps 2002 AAA line.

Look I'm not saying Phelps is the second coming, but I just can't understand why JP would give up on Phelps in such short order. I'm not even saying the JP may not end up being right (he surely knows more than me), but I don't understand the free pass he's getting. Would any other GM be praised for this move?

And realize, I like JP!

Don't forget how deep the Indians' system is. Whatever Crozier might become, I'm not convinced he had much room to reach the big club with Cleveland. He might be more valuable now just by playing for the Jays.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20040806&content_id=820895&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp
According to Spencer Fordin, JP says Crozier will probably be a September callup. (COMN)

Thanks for the refresher Lefty, I forgot about that.

According to Spencer Fordin, JP says Crozier will probably be a September callup.

In the article, why does Spencer Fordin talk about Casey Blake at 3B? Am I missing something? Jessica Simpson could be playing 3B and it would have no bearing on Phelps getting AB.

"worst decision ever" - - Simpsons Comic Book Guy

Fine and/or suspend him immediately, taxes the already taxed bullpen for this game and the rest of the series because of sheer idiocy.. and I don't give a crap if the MLB sent out a notice recently or not, that's no excuse for not using your brain.

Rotoworld has made their pronouncement on this trade. It starts out "Unbelieveable" and ends with - "Great trade by Shapiro."

They call it revocable waivers

On the way back from Montreal I tuned into a radio host going on a long, convoluted rant about how the waivers work at this time of year. He concluded by saying that the players cannot be drawn back by their team if a team other than the one who a trade has been arranged with, picks him off of waivers. To the best of my knowledge, I knew the exact opposite to be true -- that a team can pull back any player of theirs claimed on the wire or choose to let the claimants have the player (like San Diego and Randy Meyers).

The radio host was wrong, right?

http://www.ondeckbaseball.com/
Here is the view from The ondeck baseball site.
COMN for the info.

Let's see pitching what was intended to be an inside pitch to John Flaherty, a .173 hitter, with a runner on 3rd in a 5-3 ball game is a pitcher in Douglass who cannot afford to get tossed and waste one of what could be a few opportunities to show his stuff, let alone on the big stage at Yankee stadium.. yup that's a no brainer, the evidence is overwhelming, forget even issuing a warning just toss him.

wow, I didn't realize Phelps was gone until I just looked up.. it's not like we didn't see this coming, if nothing else, I'm happy for Josh and wish him Werth-like success with more of an opportunity.

When asked on wednesday if Phelps would be a career platoon DH that would crush lefties, JP remarked, "Well his spectrum of abilities keep getting smaller and smaller".

I think trading Phelps to Cleveland is fine, but I would have liked a bigger move, perhaps shipping Towers and a prospect along with Phelps for one of the true prospects in Clevland. They probably wouldnt part with Michael Aubry or Brandon Philips, but they have a lot of prospects they would give up for a package. It seems that Cleveland tried to claim Phelps off waivers and made a deal with Toronto, but still, we could have pulled him off, and looked for a better deal. Anyways heres a short Bio on Crozier:

1B Eric Crozier
Age: 25 (Born 8/17/1978)
Rule 5 Eligible
2004 Stats: 221 AB, .299/.382/.615, 16 2B, 18 HR

Eric is a full two years younger than Ben Broussard, so there's a legitimate case to be made that Eric deserves a shot at first base before the end of the year. He fought injuries in 2003, and this is his first year in Buffalo, so I think he still should be considered a prospect. Like Denney, Crozier wasn't a top draft pick, so he too has had to fight past more celebrated prospects to get where he is. He recently was named the International League Player of the Month for June. You could argue that Crozier is the best player the Indians drafted in 2000, and Eric was drafted in the 41st round. Only Brian Tallet has made the majors, and Crozier might be the second if he beats out Ryan Church.

From Cleveland Indians Compendium

Hey, quickly like to point out a few things about phelps this year.

- He WAS given a chance against righthanders this year. The first three months, he was given consisten at bats and produced a .616 OPS.

- His home runs against lefties this year have come off - Matt Riley, Brian Anderson, Neal Cotts, John Halama x 3, Jamie Moyer, Travis Blackley, Cliff Lee. This is very subjective, but I do not think any of these pitchers, at this point, can be considered elite, or even above average.

- Righthanded pitchers get him out about as easy as about any other player in the game.

- His walk rate this year is .03 less then last year: .056 vs. .086.

- Phelps is an extremely poor firstbaseman and possesses very little athletism. I also believe he had knee problems in the minors.

Personally I feel that the league has adjusted to Phelps and realized that you can easily get him out by throwing him pitches on the outer half of the plate. I also feel that his numbers against against lefties are somewhat inflated do to facing poor competition.

Its my oppinion that we are lucky to getting anything for this guy, because there are plenty more players just like him floating around the minors.

I'd say this surely spells the end of Delgado in Toronto. Stocking up on corner players without drastic lefty/righty splits says they are looking for someone cheaper to fill first. My one hope in keeping Carlos around was that there was no viable option for an everyday firstbaseman on the team otherwise. Seems JP is trying to load up on options and find one that will work.

I don't know what this says about me, but imagining a Hattig/Corzier platoon at first next year brought a smile to my face just now.

Can someone explain what the hell I was doing, smiling at that?

I got some insight from a scout friend of mine (not my opinion):

Crozier's pretty much flown up through the Indians organisation the last couple of years despite fracturing a vertebrae which severely limited him last season.

All the reports, plus his numbers and your comments, indicate that he's fully recovered from that now, though he missed a lot of time right after he was drafted as well, so there's some concern about him being an injury risk, especially when a back's involved.

Still, that said, he's a much better hitter than Phelps, with just as much power.

Unfortunately I didn't get to see him play the field a whole lot, since he spent much of his time DHing though I caught one game with him at first and one where he played right.

Allowing for the injury he was playing through he showed pretty good athleticism, but a poor first step. Generally that's the sign of a player still growing into his position though. He's certainly got the tools to be at least an average defender at both positions, maybe a little more. Either way, he's certainly better defensively than Phelps.

I expect he'll stay in Syracuse until September and then get an early audition and then be given a chance to compete in Spring Training for that all too big vacancy. Pond and Clark shouldn't really be too much of a threat to push him out, though the Jays may have some NRIs in to keep it competitive. Still, I know JP's been keen on Crozier for a while and I'd be surprised if he doesn't make the cut next year.

All-in-all the Jays will be very happy with this, they got a player who's better in every facet of the game (Ok, Phelps maybe hits lefties for power better), and who is younger. He's not going to replace Delgado, but then not many people could, but he will more than adequately replace Josh Phelps and at least put the leather on.

Addendum: Just checked on this - since your question was the first I heard of the trade - and it seems that the Jays were passing Phelps through waivers with the intention of trading him elsewhere - unconfirmed though I believe their deal was with Minnesota - when Cleveland put in a blocking claim on the waiver. Ricciardi checked with them before pulling him back and plucked Crozier off of them in return, so I suspect Cleveland are happy too with this. They'll use Phelps as a threat against left-handers (of which the AL Central has a good few) and they kept him away from Minnesota.

Thinking about the $18.5 million left to spread around every other position on the field?

The Indians can also afford to let Crozier go because they have a very hot prospect in Michael Aubrey at High A Kinston right now. They are loaded for power bats at DH and 1B. How they will use Phelps exactly is another question.

I agree with your points, but does Crozier have equal power to Phelps?

Phelps has alot of power, comparable to Sexson, I dont know if Crozier has that kind of slugging. I dont think applying the manifest power formula to Crozier's AAA stats would be truly telling. If his power is even comparable to Phelps, this trade is good.

Crozier is practically the same age as Phelps, and doesnt have the track record in AA, and AAA Phelps has. Crozier is just a bum!! They practically gave away Phelps.

Richie Sexson has power against righties, Josh Phelps and his .290 SLG do not!

26 year old, in AAA, This is ridiculous!! They might as well traded him for Chad Mottola!

Could be the worst trade of JP's carreer!

Like I say, given the situation in Cleveland, it is difficult to see how a team with no room to call up the player makes the player a bum.

Or rather, Phelps was really a bum too. :)

Crozier had more than 20 doubles this year too, which shows some gap power, and I guess is a good indicator that his bat will not go flat.

As my friend pointed out and some others here know, Crozier has just had a bit of an odd, though not delayed, progression through the ranks due to injury.

When you look at who else the Jays have used at 1st to back up Delgado this year, and never Phelps, Crozier is an improvement there alone.

If they are stuck without Delgado next year, I'm guessing I'll be happier with Crozier over Dave Berg, Chris Gomez or Howie Clark.

I think what we just heard from Joel is Crozier has had a few injuries that slowed him down a little. Maybe that means we're dealing with damaged goods, maybe that means he's just realizing his potential. Phelps gave us consistent frustration and inconsistent contact, I'm willing to take my chances on this one.

Thanks for that analysis, Joel!

Wow, this team is going forward. Your replacment for Delgado 27 year old rookie Eric Crozier !!

Phelps Destroyed AAA at a younger age, what makes Crozir better? He wasnt even ranked on any top prospect list ever Sickels, BA , rotoworld.

He's almost 26 and no one said that Delgado's $18.5 million isn't going to a strong bat. Crozier, as far as I know, will be paid the league minimum (or something close to it) so he may end up being a bat off the bench and have the ability to take a start or two each week at first.

What was Phelps going to do? Hope John Halama pitches 10 games against the Jays next year?

Thanks for aging Eric by 2 years in 2 hours Johnny!

Don't thank me entirely, A. I keep in touch with a fellow in Wales, of all places, who does some scouting over in Europe and keeps on top of as much as he can when back in North America.

I wanted his opinion on Crozier's defense mostly, as my eye witness accout this year suggested we'll get just as many HRs if fewer into the 5th deck.

FWIW, Crozier has 6 errors this year in 84 games.

This might be a generalization, and it's way too early to tell whether Crozier will or won't amount to anything.. but with strong minded GM's who are set in their ways (i.e Pat Quinn) for better or for worse, once they don't believe in a player (i.e Jason Smith, Ric Jackman etc) or how they fit the mould of how they think a player should be, it's very hard for these players to get back in their favour regardless of the odd multi point or multi HR games that they produce. The moment they fail, which is bound to happen (although in Josh's case this season it was more damning), they get back in the doghouse while other players have bought themselves a lifetime's worth of free passes for their repeated subpar performances due to past success (some, seemingly in another life). Basically their flaws become magnified, and strengths nullified in order to affirm the GM's negative beliefs on the player. Eventually these players tend to get traded for what's seen as less than perceived value to fans who gripe that they never did get a fair shot, while the GM's perception of the player almost drives them to undervalue him when trading him away; almost a self fulfilling prophecy if you will, only involving someone else. Maybe it comes with the territory when having a GM with such a strong set of beliefs on how to succeed (which we definitely needed), ultimately though I hope that whatever possible inflexibility exists isn't so much a flaw as it is a definitive mindset that leads to success. Anyway, that's my rather simple theory, take it for what it's worth.

Just checked on this - since your question was the first I heard of the trade - and it seems that the Jays were passing Phelps through waivers with the intention of trading him elsewhere - unconfirmed though I believe their deal was with Minnesota - when Cleveland put in a blocking claim on the waiver.

Are you just making this Minnesota trade thing up?

How did he jump from 25 (26 in a few days) to 27. I know you like to be an ass, but prove why this is such a bad move with actual points.

Onto more important issues, I was talking about Phelps and his raw power, comparable to Sexson. If he could make contact against righties, he would be Sexson, minus the glove. Destroying AAA for either player doesnt mean a whole lot if Major league pitchers can expose a flaw. I guess JP felt that Phelp's flaw was not correctable.

RhyZa, JP had stated that Phelps was in the team's future, even as a first baseman, as recently as early July. This isn't a case of getting in the doghouse. There may have been conditions to Phelps becoming that option at 1B for 2005 and he just couldn't meet them (like hitting some RHP when given the chance, demonstrating improvements during workouts at 1B, etc). The outs Phelps was making (and not making back with defense) just couldn't be accepted by a ball club that relies on creating runs for the lowest possible price.

"Are you just making this Minnesota trade thing up?"

I got that comment from my friend, unsolicited. As he noted, it's unconfirmed. I have never actually quizzed him on where he gets inside rumours like this.

As his full comment notes, though, the JP was happy to get his hooks into Crozier, so it really doesn't matter whether Phelps might have gone to Minny.

I thought the extra info was interesting though, considering the discussion on the waiver wire.

Walker to the Cards, wow.. like their lineup needed anymore help.

Edmonds
Walker
Rolen
Pujols

If he could make contact against righties, he would be Sexson,

That's like saying if I could play hockey I'd be Wayne Gretzky. ;)

A, true enough.

I should've attached my disclaimer that I'm a big believer in JP, and have faith that Crozier isn't just some bum that some are making him out to me... just thought I'd throw it out there.

"How did he jump from 25 (26 in a few days) to 27. I know you like to be an ass, but prove why this is such a bad move with actual points."

Hmmm...we just traded Phelps away for a player who is not even considered a prospect!! Phelps out hit this guy at a younger age? Is that enough for you? Why on earth would you think Crozier has more potential the Phelps? Crozier's has never even been on a top prospect list before. Crozier was a 41st round pick out of College?? Guess his tools were outstanding?? I was talking about next year, next year at this time, he will be 26 turning 27 "in a few days " and a rookie? Geez this kids got prospect written all over him.

Actually I agree with Rhyza. Phelps has hit everyone for two years and hasn't hit righties for half a year. I'm not sure why everyone says he can't hit RHP, like it's a done deal.

Exactly, Phelps has gotten inconsistent playing time the last two years as well.

Phelps is like a Fred McGriff figure to me. Remember how McGriff would go 3 for 45 and then just go mad with extra base hits for two weeks straight. And - oh - the strikeouts. JP probably wouldn't have liked the Crime Dog either. It's a different organization now with different ideas of what players should be. JP would rather have you consistently bring above average stuff everyday than bring phenomenal stuff at some points and zilch others. Gomez, Menechino, Wells (sans the free swing), Zaun are what JP likes to see.

I think Crozier is going to more closely fit the mould Keith describes.

Despite his better year last year, I haven't been a big Phelps fan because of the all-hit-no-field type of player he is.

The Jays bench will be more flexible without him.

If you're going to go talk about tools, I guess the A's ought to just withdraw their team from conention in Major League Baseball.

Teams like the Jays and A's will always have players with flaws, it's just trying to find the flaws that won't lose you a ball game. Age, weight, height and tools (tools to a certain extent) are all factors that some teams value much more than necessary. As such, guys like Crozier who are a little older or haven't been on a top prospect list can get lifted from a system like the Indians for relatively little and still continue to have a positive impact on their new team. (Yes, that just summarized Moneyball.)

Any info on who was coming back from Minny?

Minnesota? In what trade?

Joel reports from his contact in Europe that the Indians blocked a Phelps to Minnesota trade.

Oh, didn't read all the posts. Thanks. I see now.

No word at all on Minny trade. I will try to find out, but cannot promise.

The only thing I can say about Phelps not hitting righties is the first year, everyone tries to blow heat past rookies, and for those few months he crushed them. The following year, after some pitchers adjusted, his average vs. righties dropped to .232 but still hit more HR presumably from the straight heat still thrown at him. This year pretty much every team has their report on Phelps, and he has proven he cant hit against righties at this point. But as I asked in a game thread a few days back, is this a correctable flaw, or will he forever be an incredible lefty masher.

I guess JP thought it wasnt correctable, and since there are no lefties in the East, and he cant play a defensive position, his range of abilities was growing smaller. Now I dont think anyone here has said Crozier is a legit prospect, but Joel gave some reasons as to why he was 25 and in AAA. I doubt he will be the slugger Phelps projected to be, but how much potential does Phelps have left? I would have liked to have seen a better trade, wondering what we could get from the twins, but saying Phelps can hit righties at this point is valid, but he could learn to in the future and make us very sad.

Phelps is like a Fred McGriff figure to me.

He shouldn't be. McGriff always had a very high BB:AB ratio. Phelps never did. McGriff used to be criticized for being too passive ("if he'd swing the bat instead of walking so much, he'd drive in 100 runs"). No one has ever accused Phelps of being too patient.

JP probably wouldn't have liked the Crime Dog either.

No, I think JP would have loved McGriff and his OPS+ in the 150s. In fact, JP would love McGriff more than any previous Blue Jay GM did.

Gomez, Menechino, Wells (sans the free swing), Zaun are what JP likes to see.

Aside from Wells, who is a star (or borderline star) whom all GM's would like to see, JP likes the other three because they bring value for the money. With an $80M payroll, JP wouldn't be dicking around with the likes of those three. As it is right now, he has no choice.

Walker to the Cards, wow.. like their lineup needed anymore help.

I can't find a Walker trade. Where did you see it?

Strange Theory Ahead:

Something led Tosca to play Dave Berg vs RH in LF three days in a row. An injury to Johnson, whatever. Tosca and J.P. realize Johnson can't do it all right now and they need to call up Gabe Gross. They are also both fed up with Phelps.

On the same day, Phelps is blocked on waivers by Cleveland. J.P., noticing an opportunity to work out a deal for Phelps, trades him for Crozier. This opens up a spot for Gross on the MLB roster.

So, maybe the Phelps trade is not meant to rid the team of Phelps but to make room for Gabe Gross, since Johnson can't do the job every day. Also, there's not much J.P. could get for any of his other expendable hitters (Gomez, Berg, Menechino), so he had to get rid of Phelps to open up said roster spot.

Or I'm just ranting nonsensically. Any thoughts?

Someone reported here that they heard the Walker trade on the Sportsnet broadcast.

CJ Nitkowski, interesting story.. I'm rooting for the guy personally.

http://www.cjbaseball.com/

Here it is, from tonight's game thread:
Wow! Jamie Campbell just reported that Larry Walker cleared waivers and was dealt to the Cardinals.

Keith,

McGriff is more like Delgado - high strikeouts, high walks, prone to slumps but walks even when in a slump.

Josh has shown below average ability to draw walks in the major leagues (and in the minors he wasn't too far above average). After nearly 1100 PA, Josh has walked in 7% of his PA (average figure - 7.7%). McGriff he is not, nor will he ever be.

Walker link.

Brian Daubach had his first good year as a 27-year-old rookie.

Hey I don't think we should just dismiss what Crozier has done so far in AAA, .296 average, 21 doubles and 20 home runs in less that 300 AB's is not exactly chicken feed. He's 25 going on 26, so what this is just his 4th professional year, it not as if he's a career minor leaguer, and for you Johnny he is rated by BA as Clevelands 12 best prospect, and don't forget Cleveland has a deep farm system.

An interesting trade. Things to note...

Via ESPN...
7th out of 14 AL teams for DH
OPS = Texas at 796
OBP = Yankees at 356
Slg = Yankees at 453
Avg = W-Sox at 254

Phelps
Career = 266/337/473 810 OPS
2004 = 237/296/417 713 OPS
Splits pre-2004
vs RH = 272/348/518 866 OPS (471 AB)
vs LH = 297/372/450 822 OPS (202 AB)
Splits 2004
vs RH = 188/252/290 543 OPS (186 AB)
vs LH = 321/370/633 1.003 OPS (109 AB)

So, what does this tell us? That before this year Phelps didn't have a big platoon spread, vs RH he had more power, vs LH he got on base more. Nothing wrong there. Then this year he couldn't do anything vs RH at all. We're talking Joe Lawrence territory here (180/262/247 509 OPS lifetime). Heck, his OBP is _lower_ than Lawrence had vs RH (258 OBP for JL vs RH). Now _that_ is pathetic. Heck, outside of pitchers only Kevin Cash has a lower OBP vs RH this year. To make matters worse not one hitter, not even Cash, has a lower Slg vs RH pitchers. Out of 333 players with 100+ plate appearances vs right handed pitching Phelps is 327th in the majors. Out of 216 with 200 PA only Desi Relaford, a utility infielder, is hitting worse vs RH.

What happened? Is he injured? His numbers vs LH would suggest not. There is something very odd with Phelps this season vs RH pitchers. A drop like he has experienced is not common. His OPS by month vs all? 690-664-405-1.206-1.250 The last two numbers are over 44 and 4 AB's. The first 3 are over 85-106-56 AB's.

Maybe Phelps will find his stroke vs RH's again. Perhaps there was something odd going on early in the season we don't know about. But if I was JP and facing arbitration (thus a million+ salary for Phelps most likely despite his flop this year) I'd take what I could get too.

Remember, even based on his career stats all Phelps has shown is league average DH skills. There should be no problem finding AAAA players who can do that with some work this winter, if the guy they got for Phelps can't do it himself.

Just what is wrong with Phelps? I haven't been able to keep up with this one. He remains a late inning defensive replacement, so someone thinks he can run around the OF effectively.

Will they move Godwin up to take the Gross outfield position? He is only batting .254, but is tearing up the bases.

Sorry. I meant Johnson in my last post.

Rob,

Good theory, plausible to a certain extent. But this season is a lost cause, so who cares if Reed or Berg play leftfield? Gross now comes up 3.5 weeks earlier than he would have otherwise.

Assuming Crozier makes the team next year, the Jays:

Save a bit of money this year and next

and

Get a young lefty power bat.

Really, Crozier is a prospect. How many of you had heard of Travis Hafner before 2002? He was 25 then and had a monster year at Oklahoma in 2002. Then he was traded to the Indians. Crozier isn't as good as Hafner, but (similarly) is a late-bloomer (Hafner didn't play AA until he was 24). Too early to close the book on Crozier, IMO.

Joel, Phelps doesn't run around anywhere. He either trots around the bases when the ball goes over the fence, walks to the batter's box and back after he strikes out or sits on the bench.

With Walker going to the Cards, can you remember the last time a National League team had such an impressive offence? I can't, not in my lifetime. The Giants seem to have been the NL team that traditionally has an offensive slant, but this Cardinal team is far more dangerous than anything the Giants have trotted out in the last 20 years. I guess the 86 Mets had solid offence, but still the Cardinals are of a higher order.

Thanks to all who have a better memory of McGriff than me. I just remember all those slumps followed by red-hot streaks. He did like to walk, that's right.

Sorry, Joel, missed your correction.

Johnson came up last season and earned the nickname Sparky because of his inspiring style of play. Lots of speed, lots of enthusiasm, can get down a great bunt but doesn't play a wonderful outfield and he's starting to have his has been slipping slowly in the last month or two.

I guess Reed never has been in my doghouse. I find it hard to believe Dave Berg is a better replacement, but we all have our faults.

Robert:

I didn't think my theory was right, at this point it doesn't matter much who plays where, you're right.

Maybe an injury to Johnson led to a need for Gross --> a need for a roster spot --> Phelps suddenly being traded.

But I think J.P. wanted Phelps to go, no matter what. So the Gross consideration comes later, not the other way around.

I got the following info from my friend on the possible Minny trade:

I understand that there was interest and talk over a few players: Kevin Hodge, Josh Rabe and Jason Bartlett. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jays try to make a further move for one of those guys before the beginning of next season. Rabe and Bartlett are both right handed hitters, and Bartlett would probably seem more valuable as a SS. (Rabe plays the OF) Bartlett got called up just over a week ago though which may have slowed talks.
Hodge is a right handed reliever with closer potential. Oddly he seems tougher on lefties than righties though. My gut says he's the guy they were dealing for rather than the others, but I can't be sure.

If the Jays do acquire him I'd expect him to be fast-tracked into the middle of their bullpen pretty quickly.

For those who have seen Gross play, would LF be a suitable position for him, he has been basically a RF in the minors. Does he have good wheels?

Whoah. Did Wilner get the Minny rumor from Joel?

Wilner just read it here, I think. He checks Da Box from time to time.

I got the following info from my friend on the possible Minny trade:

Call me skeptical, but I find it hard to believe that some part-time scout in Europe knows about a potential deal that no one in North America knows about. This smells like another hoax, like the Delgado for Encarnacion and Charles Darnay rumour. Probably your friend wants to impress you by implying he's in the know.

Well, at least we know what that 'stiff neck' was all about.

This smells like another hoax, like the Delgado for Encarnacion and Charles Darnay rumour.

It was Brian Morris. Learn the names of your non-existant Dodger prospects. ;)

Well, at least we know what that 'stiff neck' was all about.

Heh. No kidding, eh?

For those who have seen Gross play, would LF be a suitable position for him, he has been basically a RF in the minors. Does he have good wheels?

Gross' speed is probably average at best. If Gross, Wells, and Rios are in the OF the best lineup would be with Gross in LF (especially given his arm problems this year).

Wow.

I need to do some more digging on Crozier, but from what I've read here so far (kudos to all posters for the insights and analysis), the man can hit. He's clearly a late bloomer, but that's fine. His biggest advantage is he's a lefty batter; with Delgado's certain departure, the Jays had only Hinske as a reliable threat from the left side. With Gross also in the fold, that changes.

I agree with the prevailing feeling: whatever's going on with this team, it ain't over yet. This could be the first of many moves. God knows this current team has shown very little reason why it shouldn't be blown up.

Phelps was regressing, and he was losing both his aura and his trade value. Could he have been handled better? Maybe, but in this game, you have to take the cards as they're dealt to you, and make the most of your opportunities. Phelps did not do that, in spades -- brando's point about the lefties that Phelps lit up this year is well taken. JP and Co. have very rarely been wrong about hitters, and if they think Phelps will never be more than a part-time DH, I'll go along with them on that.

I've seen Gross play, but not in the field. He was reportedly a fine right fielder, so i would imagine he'll be more than fine in left.

This smells like another hoax

Let's wait till there's confirmation one way or another before making accusations, shall we? He reported it as third-party opinion and didn't claim it for fact. Conserve your moral outrage.

Gabe Gross caught a plane out of Syracuse at 7:50 PM and was in the Blue Jays dugout before the game ended. Some of you may already know this but I just learned it from Marty Pevey.

I'm working on getting SkyChiefs' players comments up on this site so if Gerry or a moderator can get back to me via e-mail right away it would be helpful.

I spoke with Gross Tuesday in Buffalo. He told me he has had no problems with his arm since early July and now he just is careful with it. He was not throwing with the rest of the team at 4 pm, he did not want to warm it up and then have it cool down. He waited until BP to warm it up. On Tuesday he threw Jason Tyner out at the plate, his throw was right on the money and the strength looked average to me.

Remember Gross is formerly the QB of the Auburn football team. Marty Pevey says that Gabe is athletic and can do pretty much what he wants to. I would project him to be an average to slightly above average LF.

All I'll say for my friend is he's bright and I have no reason to doubt him. As noted above in his own words, he's offered me unconfirmed opinion. So he's made me no promises either.

What is at the root of much of this is how a GM who is high on a player will pursue him until he can get him.

Apparently, JP likes Crozier. So he got him. JP also likes some guys in the Twins' system. Maybe they will be here one day, maybe they won't.

In the meantime, I like Crozier better than Phelps if he can at least stand on the field 40-50 games a year minimum.

Ed, you're awesome man.

Wilner was also nice to me when I called in. Maybe he thinks I know something. :)

This has been pointed out before by various posters, but I haven't heard any explanations from Jays management about why this has happened:

Phelps - G/F ratio

2002 0.97; 2003 1.37; 2004 2.03

Could it be that pitchers started feeding Josh sinkers that he would roll over and ground out? It would be interesting to hear Mike Barnett's take on the GB-FB issue.

And here are Josh's K rates in the majors -

2002 28.6%; 2003 25.6%; 2004 22.9%

Incredibly, the more Josh's strikeout rates declined, the worse he hit overall.

His BIP average rates:

2002 .399 (a fluke, for sure); 2003 .328 (well above-average); 2004 .275

Over this period the AL average was about .291.

He traded in strikeouts, linedrives and flyballs for groundouts and LOST TREMENDOUSLY on the deal. The enigma that is Josh Phelps.

I am sure JP confided with Barnett before the deal. If Barnett could do anything to correct his problem, I am sure it would already have been done. Phelps will be more effective in the Central, with more lefty rivals, and their platoon at DH. I too, would like Barnett's view of Phelps and his struggles.

Thank you Ed Gosner. It's a real thrill to read posts like that.

Larry Walker had been blasted by some for refusing trades to Florida, Texas, etc. - saying he doesn't care about being on a winner. This trade refutes that. I put Walker in the same camp as Randy Johnson (who was also treated unfairly in the media, no wonder he hates them).

Namely, these players are happy where they are, enjoy what they've built where they're playing. Sure they'd like to be on a winner. But they're not going to give up all the goodwill they've built up where they are unless they are going with a team that will definately get to the playoffs, who are frontrunners to get to the World Series. And why should they?

It's funny that the media will blast players for having no loyalty. And at the same time blast players for not wanting to move.

We will have a report from Ed up shortly. Ed is the same Ed who supplied the photos for todays Quiroz interview.

A few other factors:
1) Remember when JP came into town? He complained about how many DH's he had on the team. Josh is the same way - with his bat regressing, he has little other value.
2) Josh is going into his fourth year, and will soon be arbitration eligible. If Crozier can hit just about as well over the next three years, this move saves alot of money.
3) Crozier hits LH? Big advantage over Phelps.
4) Crozier should be hitting his prime cheap, too.

I think this trade stinks. When I first found out I thought the guy the Jays got was maybe 20 or 21 yrs old and then I found he's basically the same age as Phelps. Phelps has been stapled to the bench this year yet he still led the Jays in RBI's. He couldn't crack the lineup after hitting 2 HR's in a game. I have a feeling this trade will haunt the Jays for years.

The only thing that will make me feel better is if JP signs Richie Sexon or Troy Glaus in the off-season.

Barring a change in the standings...

Larry Walker
Corey Koskie
Justin Morneau
Eric Gagne
Paul Quantrill
Rich Harden

... may all have the opportunity to make a big impact in this year's playoffs. Have there ever been so many outstanding Canadian players in the postseason? Walker's only previous experience was four games in 1995. Gagne and Quantrill have never pitched in the postseason. Neither did Fergie Jenkins.

It should be fun to watch!

Is Sexson avialable? What about all this talk about D-Backs being contenders next year? Wouldn't they want to keep him?

And Glaus - wouldn't be my first choice, but he did look good in 100 ABs this year - but why would the Angels get rid of him? And do you trade Hinske then? (Might not be a bad move).

I really wonder who might be available in the off-season. Carlos Delgado?

Sexson and Glaus are both free agents following this season. Also: Nomar Garciaparra.

The AP wire story on the Walker trade has the throwaway line, unattributed "Walker, the best player ever to come out of Canada ..."

Hrm. It doesn't specificy "position player" so I think there's a fella named Fergie might could have something to say about that.

But wouldnt it be fantastic if the Jays had the kind of money to keep josh around as absolutley lethal LHP Pinch Hitter? Dream world I know... and also in my dream world the Jays sign Nomar in the off season with the Carlos money.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/your_call.asp?messageId=482773&hubname=mlb
For some entertaining reading, check out the comments on the tsn.ca story about the trade. COMN.

I'm sure JP is sniffing around Glaus and Sexson. It's obvious Delgado isn't coming back and even with the bump in salaries for Doc, Wells, and Hinske I believe JP should still have 12-14 mil to play with this off-season.

Sexson is out for the whole year which will hurt his money value and Glaus has been injured the past seasons and the Angels have highly touted prospect Dallas McPherson ready to take over. Their owner has already said the payroll will probably go down next season.

I don't see Glaus or Sexson costing more than 9-10 mil each.

If JP can let's say sign Sexson he still has money to sign another hitter and a veteran arm for the bullpen.

Guys, regarding signing Glaus or Sexton, we are just not in the situation to sign free agents of that caliber/salary, especially since they have both maintained serious injuries this year. Now, I would be open to a Miguel Batista type signing, but that will entail a situation in which JP will have to wait for the market to show itself, and to take advantage of the undervalued players.

He's 25 going on 26, so what this is just his 4th professional year, it not as if he's a career minor leaguer, and for you Johnny he is rated by BA as Clevelands 12 best prospect, and don't forget Cleveland has a deep farm system.

I know I have read some scouting reports on Crozier in the past...need to dig them up. Finn - what BA ranking are you looking at? I dont see Crozier in the top 30 prospects for Cleveland. In the 2004 book, Kaz Tadano RHP is ranked 12th...

Geez, spend a day at the Beer Fest and come home to this? Egads.

Well, at least Crozier looks pretty nifty. A bit old, true, but no excesssively so.

But really, this is a case of selling low. J.P. & Tosca have spent the last few months telling everyone that Phelps can't play defence and he can't hit anyone other than soft-tossing lefties.

I will say this for J.P.: It takes serious guts to give up on a guy with Phelps' potential. This could end up looking really, really bad. But maybe Phelps just hits .220 for the rest of his career and it looks good. Is Phelps the second coming of Richie Sexson, or just Russell Branyan?

Only time, and, in the case of the former, Richard Griffin will tell.

I will say this to you all, Phelps had potential back in 2002. Man, you have to have potential to make the cover of a BP book.

However, you all have to realize that the league has adjusted to Phelps! A .543 OPS in 186 at bats is no fluke, because 186 at bats is just way too much sample size. Outside fastball, outside fastball, outside fastball, outside fastball, etc.

Phelps' career equtes down to this pseudo equation...

lefty masher + no discernable postion = AAAA

We're all assuming that Jays will save a few $$ with this, but is that actually true? Is Phelps likely to be arb-eligible as a super 2 after this year?

A .543 OPS in 186 at bats is no fluke, because 186 at bats is just way too much sample size.

If that were true, then how do you explain this?

Paul Konerko, 2003
            AB  HT DB TP HR RBI BB SO  AVG  OBA  SLG  OPS
vs. Right  294  55  9  0  8  37 32 40 .187 .272 .299 .571

Paul Konerko, 2004
            AB  HT DB TP HR RBI BB SO  AVG  OBA  SLG  OPS
vs. Right  264  74  8  0 20  48 27 46 .280 .354 .538 .892

186 at bats is not, of course, an adequate sample size. It's a little less than two months of regular play; after two months, Juan Uribe was batting .335, while Derek Jeter was batting .220.

To just say that the league adjusted to Josh is not a satisfactory explanation for what happened. How come other outstanding hitting prospects can adjust, while Phelps regressed?

Sometimes, big tall guys with big swings get messed up at the plate. See Konerko and Pat Burrell last year, and also Mark McGwire in 2001. Dale Murphy struggled with consistency early in his career. Those guys rediscovered their groove; there have been many others who didn't.

There's nothing wrong with a big swing, as long as the mechanics are sound. But there are more things that can do wrong. Obviously, Phelps was messed up, resulting in far too many ground balls. The Jays were hopelessly frustrated in their attempts to fix the problem.

Cleveland has got a great program going this year with hitting coach Eddie Murray. They are leading the league in runs scored, while almost every regular is having a good year. It will be interesting to see if they can do anything with Josh's swing.

I always liked Josh, and I wish him the best. I really, really wanted to see him hit 45 homers in a Jays uniform. Maybe he will, someday down the road.

I agree with the consensus here on the trade. It's risky to give up on someone of Phelps's potential, especially when he was so good between AAA/majors in 2002. This trade could hurt us in the future.

However, JP has evidently decided tht at the problem with Phelps's swing is something that major league pitchers have adjusted to, given his decline over the last few years. He's also likely decided that the flaw is not something that is correctable, or probably rather that the Jays don't know how to fix it (Phelps seems inable to), and that it's not worth the money for him next year if he'll continue to regress, or sit at this level.

Crozier has never been on a top prospect list, even a Sickels Top 30, which isn't good news. However, he has put up good stats in the minors and is doing quite well at AAA this year. He looks to me to be someone, like was said above, who has always been written off as being a bit too old for the level or not a real prospect due to position and draft round. With this year he's likely erased all of those doubts.

It's a gutsy move by JP to trade Phelps's power for a relatively unknown quantity, but I support the move. I was suprised the Jays didn't wait until the offseason (this move was about three months earlier than I thought it'd be), but Phelps has stagnated. If the Jays don't see him moving forward, and he's shown no sign he will this year against RHP, than to flip him for what looks like a useful part is a smart move.

What did callers on the post-game with Wilner say about the trade? Mostly down on it/wondering who in the heck Crozier was?

I don't expect them to sign another firstbase man. Carlos's 19 mil is not going to be reinvested into the team so Crozier might be it.

What a lot of people are saying about Josh's swing not being able to be fix is not true. A lot of players had to have their swings revaluated including Delgado. The Jays just didn't want to spent the time to fix someone that they didn't see in thier long range plans.

So Josh might lead the team in RBIs, but that's because nobody else has any, not because he's an RBI.

Let's face it, at this point Josh looks like he might be the second coming of one of two players: Dave Kingman or Joe Charboneau. Josh may turn out okay, but he's replaceable.

JP's comments, as recorded on the Skychiefs Website:

We had talked to them a lot early in the season, but then it kind of died off. It picked up a little bit before the trading deadline, and today it finished off," said J.P. Ricciardi, Toronto's general manager. "This is just a chance for us to get a good bat, the type of offensive guy we like. We think his power is coming."

[ Reply to This ]

             G/F  AB/HR
Toronto     +18%   -71%
Seattle      +4%    -7%
New York     +2%   +10%
Minnesota    -7%   +17%
Boston      +11%    -7%
Cleveland    -2%    +8%
Baltimore     0%    +9%
Detroit     -12%   +14%
Anaheim      +6%    -4%
Oakland       0%    +7%
Texas        +2%     0%
Kansas City  -3%    -5%
Chicago      -1%    +8%
Tampa Bay   -10%    +8%

             G/F  AB/HR
Toronto     +18%   -29%